NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/10

It’s tough to get a full grasp on the slate this early. The Nets could be without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving again, they could have one or the other or they could have both. Boston is really the key to the whole slate. The whole team is under the cloud of the NBA’s health and safety protocols. They could be down to the minimum eight players and we’d have no choice to be very interested in that whole team. For now, we’re going to skip the Nets and Celtics. They will be included with the update that will come tomorrow either here or in Discord. We do still have plenty of other options to talk about, but be ready to pivot from what’s written in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/10 to get that right combo.

*UPDATE* – This slate is NUTS. The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics game has been POSTPONED, do NOT play any of those players. DeMar DeRozan, Karl Anthony-Towns and Kyrie Irving headline the stars that are out.

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($10,100 DK/$10,000 FD) – He was frustrating two games ago when he finished under 35 DK points but he’s really a strong option any given night. Over 41% of the field goal attempts allowed by the Raptors are from three point land, which is obviously in Curry’s wheelhouse. The Raptors are also 20th in real points allowed and 12th in pace, so the shootout potential is there. Curry is sporting a 32.7% usage and 1.51 FPPM at this stage of the season.

Dejontue Murray ($6,800 DK/$6,600 FD) – This is a copy and paste spot, as Murray is taking on the Wolves again. I have a gut feeling a Spur sits (looking at LaMarcus Aldridge in particular) on the back to back. LMA is coming off an injury and played nearly 30 minutes last night. Even if Aldridge plays, Murray is still solid. The teams play at a top 10 pace each and Murray is over a 1.10 FPPM with Aldridge in the lineup. It doesn’t hurt that Derrick White is out for the next little bit.

*Update* DeMar DeRozan is out, and Murray has a 32.2% usage and 1.44 FPPM over the course of 85 minutes this year with DDR off.

Elfrid Payton ($6,500 DK/$5,500 FD) – Payton was around 50% on FD last slate, put up 24.7 FD on 4-16 shooting and remains the same price. That mean’s I’m still interested for cash because Elf is still too cheap. Denver is on a back to back of their own, and are 23rd in real points allowed. With Elf contributing in every category, it ups his chances for assists and he can get to 30 without much of an issue.

Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroeder is way too cheap on FD if the Lakers are shorthanded again.

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – He’s only a point guard on DK, limiting my interest there. However, I do have to say that SGA looks like he might be putting his role together. He’s flirted with a triple-double in each of the past two games to some extent. SGA has also scored at least 47 FD points without scoring over 25 real points, showing his ability to rack up stats all over the board. I feel like SGA is going to get some traction on FD because the position is awful as we stand. He does at least have a 27.7% usage rate, even if things haven’t clicked all the way yet on a consistent basis.

Alright, I don’t normally do this but we have to wait to list off the other options. ALL of Caris LeVert, DeMar DeRozan, Marcus Smart and possibly even D’Angelo Russell could vary from mediocre plays to EXCELLENT plays, pending their teammates. This position might not be the most detailed even in the update, but we’ll get there and have a better list when we get the information.

*Update* LeVert is still an option, but I do think he is a little too pricey now at $8,000. My top SG is D-Lo, followed closely by SGA. Devin Vassell is popping as a strong value in the model as we stand, about 60 minutes before lock. There’s also a chance you could just spend low here, and spend up on PF and C tonight. Malik Beasley is in the conversation as well on FD, even though he’s not typically a cash play.

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($7,300 DK/$8,100 FD) – Buckets went for 459 DK last night and his price actually went down $100 on that site, so thank you DK. Much like SGA, Butler is shaking off a slow start and might be able to pick on a very short-handed Boston team. Butler leads with a usage approaching 28% and just missed a triple-double of his own. He’s not nearly expensive enough on either site.

*Update* Kevin Durant is the top SF play on this slate.

Will Barton ($5,800 DK/$5,900 FD) – As long as Michael Porter is out and Barton is getting 32-34 minutes a night, count me in. His FPPM is just 0.87 and he usage is just 18.8%, but the true shooting is really what’s holding him back. It’s a slow-paced game with both teams 20th or worse, but I simply won’t buy that New York is one of the five best teams in giving up real points. The salary is fair for a player of Barton’s caliber with poor shooting being the one factor that hurts him.

Honorable Mention – RJ Barrett since he never comes off the court. This position is very dependent on the top end and who’s availing between LeBron, KD, Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,500 DK/$9,400 FD) – He could wind up being among the chalkiest players on the slate, depending on who else we can spend on. Randle has been a monster so far this year, with a 28% usage rate and a 1.30 FPPM. One thing to watch here is both Randle and Jokic are in the top 14 in free throws per game. Jokic has had a bad habit of being foul-y a lot lately, flirting with the limit seemingly almost every game. It’s not enough to fade Randle and even in a game that could be tougher for him, I don’t think Joker is putting in work on the defensive end on a back to back.

Pascal Siakam ($7,800 DK/$8,400 FD) – Kyle Lowry is scheduled to make his way back into the lineup tomorrow, but I’m still plenty into Siakam. Spicy P isn’t the biggest paint player in the league, but he’s going to have an easier time dealing with Golden State than other teams. Golden State is 25th in points and 28th in rebounds allowed in the paint, not to mention bottom 10 in rebounds altogether. Siakam is still a 1.13 FPPM player with Lowry in, and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. This could be a fun late night hammer to stack if we get the proper value for GPP. As an aside, I love Chris Boucher in GPP on DK.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – He bit us a little bit when he was uber chalk, but we have short memories. Kelly O has been starting and playing nearly 30 minutes a night. In that span, he has a 1.00 FPPM and you could go the Tulloch route and say the revenge game, as Olynyk is an ex-Celtic. Bottom line is right now, he could be a strong value. Pending how the slate breaks, we may not need him at all and be going stars and scrubs to the max.

Honorable Mention – Possibly Anthony Davis, Daniel Theis, possibly Juancho if the Wolves sit KAT

*Update* Juancho looks like a strong value, since we can’t use Kelly Olynyk. The model is on Draymond Green on both sites, and I tend to trust that an awful lot 🙂 The Draymond play makes sense because he’s been playing 30+ minutes the past two games and contributes everywhere on the stat sheet. He is super cheap on DK, a factor I overlooked to some extent last night.

(shouts to Ghost because this slate could NOT have been easy to deal with).

Center

Bame Adebayo ($8,800 DK/$8,500 FD) – I’ll go right back to the big man, as he put up over 30 FD points in just 21 minutes last night. The Celtics are already down Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams, and Tacko Fall is not coordinated enough to hang with Bam. He matches Butler in usage and is at the higher FPPM at 1.27. It’s hard to imagine what Celtic really contains him.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,700 DK/$5,700 FD) – I would hesitate to go here if AD plays, but the matchup is so soft he is the only value center on the board right now. This slate could turn into one where it’s pretty simple to pay up at center for Jokic or Anthony-Towns. If not, we need someone to latch onto and it could be Trez. He’s only playing about 22-24 minutes, which is a bummer. However, Houston is bottom five in rebounds in the paint. The Rockets are also ninth in field goal attempts allowed within five feet, right into what Trez does best. This slate is still a mystery and center is one spot that is difficult to figure out yet.

Honorable Mention – KAT, Joker

I think Jokic winds up fairly high owned just because a lack of really strong options at center, with some San Antonio value mixed in to afford him. I suppose you could punt James Wiseman, but he hasn’t played over 20 minutes per game lately and that is very scary.

DK Core

Durant, Curry, Dejounte Murray, Vassell

FD Core

Jokic, Draymond, Dejounte Murray, Elf

PLEASE stay tuned to Discord, because we may not be done yet with news.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/9

There’s seven games on tap for the night and honestly, I’m kind of happy we dodge the Philly mess on the main slate. I hope everyone stays healthy and gets better soon, but that rotation is going to be a nightmare. We do have at least one stud that we know is out, so the slate is sure to change around a bit before tip. Let’s get to work and lay the baseline for what games to target and plays we want in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8!

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – We haven’t really talked about Luka much this season so far. That’s pretty out of character from me, because Luka might be my favorite player in the league. He’s not been exactly what we thought at the start of the year, and he’s “been playing himself into shape”. I think he’s there, logging 70+ DK points in the past two games. Tonight the Mavs are super thin, with Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith all out. There’s only a nine minute sample of Luka with those three ALL off the court, which is a 40.1% usage and 2.14 FPPM. One of the biggest struggles for Luka so far has been from deep at just 20.8% but that won’t stick around. He’s going to be popular with recent form and with an easy pairing at guard to save salary.

Damian Lillard ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD) – What does this man need to do to get a significant price bump? He dropped almost 70 DK in three quarters last time out and the price raised just $200 on DK. The Blazers and Kings are virtually tied for 10th in pace and bottom five in real points allowed. It’s basically a carbon copy of the last game against the Wolves. Sure, that game blew out, but Dame was the reason it did. You’re going to be happy if he goes for 60+ again, which isn’t out of the question.

Dejounte Murray ($6,900 DK/$7,100 FD) – It was a little easier to pay this salary for him when LaMarcus Aldridge was out, but the matchup makes up for it. Murray still sits at the second-highest usage rate and FPPM on the team even with Aldridge. He averages over 70 touches per game and the Spurs are quietly running a lot, eighth in pace. It just so happens that the Wolves are seventh in pace, and this could be a quiet track meet (and a fun game stack overall).

Raul Neto ($4,100 DK/$4,200 FD) – Both sites continue to let Neto’s price be a free square even though we know Russell Westbrook sits on back to back games. As long as he starts (no reason to think he won’t, but Ish Smith is always lurking), don’t overthink it in cash. Neto has a 19.1% usage rate and a 0.99 FPPM with Westy off the floor. He’s shown floor with about 20 DK and massive ceiling with about 40 DK already with Westbrook out, and if he goes for 40 again without you, you could be cooked. Miami is only about mid-pack in pace but the situation is too good to pass up.

Trey Burke ($3,000 DK/$4,100 FD) – On FD, the play is Neto with a higher-priced option. On DK, you could potentially play Luka, Neto AND Burke. With Brunson out, the guard ranks thin out and now with Richardson and DFS out, the offense will need some help. I think Burke is that man, but he would be DK only on a short Mavericks rotation. I would want confirmation from the model before locking him in or anything else.

Honorable Mention – LaMelo Ball (I just hate 24 minutes a night. It really doesn’t make sense to me), Malcolm Brogdon, Cole Anthony if he gets full minutes on a back to back

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,700 DK/$10,100 FD) – The price is up there, no arguments. You could also argue that Beal has been “average” without Westbrook, scoring under 50 FD in both chances so far. He’s still sitting at a 38.5% usage rate and a 1.55 FPPM on 58% true shooting without Westbrook so far. We already have some strong vale from Dallas, before we’re even on the day of the slate. I don’t see many reasons to fade him yet, but I will be interested to see what ownership projects to. It’s possible the field goes Luka and leave Beal on the sidelines.

D’Angelo Russel ($8,100 DK/$7,800 FD) – If we like the pace matchup in this game, it only stands to reason that D-Lo makes the list. We talked about him in the last game, and said he was due a big game with his usage hovering around 30% and a FPPM about 1.15. Then Dame Dolla had to go Wolverine berserker and put the game out of reach early. D-Lo still almost had 40 DK, so if this game stays closer we’re cooking with gas. The only caveat here is the status of Karl Anthony-Towns. He’s possibly making his return and if he does D-Lo is a little too expensive for cash.

Victor Oladipo ($7,000 DK/$7,200 FD) – I don’t overly love Dipo tonight as this projects as a slow game. Phoenix is the slowest team in the league and allowing the fewest real points, not exactly the bench marks we look for. However, Dipo has the highest usage rate on the Pacers without T.J. Warren at 28.1% and his true shooting is only 51.3%. When a player is averaging over 20 real points on that low of a shooting rate, there’s more potential than some might think. He’s been a lock for about 35 DK every night so far, leaving him as a floor play if nothing else.

Tyrese Haliburton ($5,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – The rookie played 29 minutes last night and filled the stat sheet again, with 15/8/2. He’s a player we’re going to like because he can do a bit of everything. His minutes last night weren’t even blowout-related, as he was pulled off the floor at 5:08 left in the fourth. Had this one been close, he may have crossed 30. For cash, we want players like Haliburton over shooters like Buddy Hield. It’s worth the extra $200 and he’s averaging over 28 minutes as is with a 0.96 FPPM and a 14.4% usage rate. That’s pretty solid work for a rookie.

Duncan Robinson ($4,300 FD) – THIS IS A FANDUEL ONLY PLAY. That’s why I didn’t even list the DK price. Robinson is never a guy we talk about, because he’s not cash-safe. But, we need two and if you have designs to pay up to Beal and Luka, you have to save somewhere. Robinson only has a 16.6% usage rate and he’s strictly a three point bomber. He’s 14th in attempts per game at eight, and this is the best pace he can have. With 30 minutes per game, he can take advantage of Washington’s 40.3% allowed from deep, second-highest in the league.

Honorable Mention – Collin Sexton (if active)

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($7,400 DK/$8,100 FD) – Oh how I love Jimmy Buckets tonight. His price is incredibly cheap on DK, and it’s a nice thing I have value to play already. He’s been volatile to start the year but is seemingly finding his stride with 33 and 48 FD points in his last two. The 33 FD game he only played 25 minutes. Butler has the highest usage on the Heat at 27.2% and a 1.15 FPPM. His true shooting is 49.9%, which is about 8% under his career average. I’m betting he finds some shots against the Wizards at this pace and poor defense.

Tim Hardaway ($5,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – It’s a Brian Tulloch Day, otherwise known as THJ Day. Look, someone other than Luka has to take some shots in this game. He’s been off the bench the past two games but the Mavs don’t really have a choice tonight. Roughly 28-ish field goal attempts per game are out of the lineup tonight and THJ is here to get buckets. The Magic are coming off a destruction from the Rockets, and the back to back won’t do their defense any favors.

Harrison Barnes ($6,400 DK/$6,300 FD) – Barnes is not the most exciting option, but cash options aren’t always exciting. Barnes plays 35 minutes per night, and that’s workable for a 0.93 FPPM. When you catch him on a night that he shoots well, the ceiling is high but he’s generally a safe bet for 25-30. The Blazers allow the fifth-most points and remain in the top 10 in pace, the kind of game that I want to use Barnes in.

Cedi Osman ($6,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – The price is getting uncomfortable on DK but on FD there’s meat on the bone. It’s going to be tough for Cleveland to keep this game close and in honesty, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if a Buck sat. Keep an eye out because if anyone sits, that’s a slate changer. Anyways, Cedi is one of the only offensive greats the Cavs have. Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Kevin Porter and Dante Exum are all still out and Collin Sexton is questionable.

Cedi is shooting 34% from three and the Bucks allow the ninth-most attempts per game. He’s not going to come off the floor as he played 38 minutes last game. With the player out that are missing, Cedi has a 120 minute sample size where the true shooting is 36.7%. Yikes. It can only go up from there.

Honorable Mention – Gordon Hayward (don’t expect 44 real points against the Hawks again), Khris Middleton

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 DK/$8,800 FD) – If you’re trying to play Beal and Luka, Sabonis is the only somewhat realistic spend-up option here. Playing Giannis with Luka and Beal is really not the best case play because of the chances you have to take. Sabonis is top 10 in paint touches and points int the paint, which is going to make life hard on Deandre Ayton. Both the Suns and Pacers are bottom four in rebounds, so Sabonis could conceivably take advantage of his 11.4 chances per game. That’s also in the top 10 and the Suns are 20th in rebounds allowed in the paint.

John Collins ($7,500 DK/$6,800 FD) – You’re always going to sweat the foul trouble, and he’s a better play on FD to be sure. He just dropped 40 DK on this Charlotte team and that was with Trae Young playing poorly. Collins is just under eight paint touches per game and is sixth in points in the paint on the season. Charlotte is 25th in points allowed in the paint this year and just middle of the pack in rebounds. He should check in as popular on FD.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD) – It’s pretty annoying that he’s only a C on DK, but LMA is too cheap regardless. He played over 30 minutes last game, the first time all year. He’s only at a 1.03 FPPM so far but that’s kept his pricing low. The Wolves are going to have a hard time controlling him down low, even if KAT plays. If LMA plays a solid 32 minutes tonight, he’s a big bargain. I’m not sure if I want to use him on DK with the position restrictions, but the FD price and restrictions make him a very appealing cash option.

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – Over the past week, Juancho has been playing more minutes and has responded for fantasy. He’s rocking a 1.04 FPPM in the last week over 81 minutes, more than enough at this range. We want the three ball for Juancho to be falling for the upside, and guess which team happens to lead the league in field goal percentage given up from three? That’s right, it’s the Spurs. Let’s get Juancho out in a high-pace game with a team that can’t defend the three and we could get the 10x game we got two games ago. OK, maybe not that high, but you get the drift. We do need KAT to remain out to be super confident.

Honorable Mention – Davis Bertans, maybe Aaron Gordon but I don’t love he’s sill not over 30 minutes and he sat yesterday.

Center

Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK/$8,500) – I absolutely prefer Jimmy Buckets, but Bam is in a smash spot of his own. The multi-faceted big man gets the pace up spot, a terrible defense and one that can’t guard him in the paint. The Wizards are 25th in paint rebounds and 28th in paint points allowed, which is perfect for Bam. He’s sitting at a 24% usage rate and a 1.24 FPPM on the season, so there’s nothing inherently wrong with playing him. I just think Butler will likely be chalkier (especially on DK) so we just eat that chalk.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500 DK/$6,200 FD) – The Kings don’t have a big man that can contend with Nurkic down low and his price hasn’t moved. He’s hit at least 26 DK in the past three games despite playing just 23 minutes in two of them, waking up from a slow start. The Bosnian Beast has had a true shooting of at least 56.7% over the past two seasons, and is only at 51% so far. If he’s getting nearly 28-32 minutes tonight, he’s going to wreck this price tag with a 21.4% usage and a 1.12 FPPM.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,000 DK/$4,100 FD) – Oh look, more Dallas value! WCS has been moved into the staring lineup and played 20+ minutes in the past two games, but remains dirt cheap. They’re going to need some size to contend with Nikola Vucevic in this game, and WCS should get another 24 minutes or so. He has a 0.93 FPPM on the season and as always, you don’t need all the Dallas guys. It just depends on the build.

Honorable Mention – Vucevic, Clint Capela

*Note* I may have to leave the cores in Discord tomorrow due to work. They will be posted in the NBA-research tab to find them easily.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8

We have a sprawling 10 game slate tonight, and there are stars all over the board. We do have players on a back to back spot like Brooklyn and the Lakers, not to mention injuries to watch already. We all know the madness that is the NBA during the day, so let’s lay the base for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8 to get into the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

*Note* We may not have a lot of options at the high end. Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and De’Aaron Fox are all questionable. Kyrie Irving did not travel with the team. This position may have to be used in the mid-range and lower just out of necessity.

LaMelo Ball ($6,500 DK/$6,900 FD) – Ball is a little more expensive than I would prefer, but point guard might be very weird tonight. I can’t understand why he played less minutes last game, when all he did was produce 13/8/5 in just 24 minutes. Ball fills the stat sheet when he’s on the floor and can’t be denied much longer. New Orleans is playing at the fifth-slowest pace on the year but that’s not going to stop Ball from contributing. He’s got a 23.4% usage and is rocking a 1.26 FPPM with just a 51.9% true shooting rate.

George Hill ($4,800 DK/$5,600 FD) – Another fairly mediocre player as far as “do I want to play him”, but Hill checks boxes at the salary. He’s still getting about 26-28 minutes a night and has a usage rate over 20% at almost a 1.00 FPPM. I don’t trust the Knicks to be a good enough defensive team that they’ll be inside the top five in points allowed for much longer.

Elfrid Payton ($6,500 DK/$5,500 FD) – I feel like we’ve hit this point every slate lately, but Elf is a much better play on FD. His price simply does not change and he’s only at $5,500 after dropping almost 40 FD last game. The usage has climbed up over 24% with a 26.3% assist rate on top of it. OKC is in the top half in pace, so Elf has a little bit more of a chance to run and gun here. There’s no reason for Payton to not continue to log heavy minutes.

Cole Anthony ($5,000 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’ll be interested to see what the model makes of Anthony, and what he’s projected for on ownership. With Markelle Fultz down for the season, Anthony is stepping into 30 minutes a night. His game log from the past game looks weak, but with Fultz off the floor Anthony has a 23.7% usage rate and a 1.03 FPPM. This is all with a 40.8% true shooting rate, which is atrocious. Against Houston, the offensive potential is there since they give up the eighth-most real points in the league.

Honorable Mention – Any of the top end players if they play, Raul Neto would be near a lock if Westbrook sits

Shooting Guard

Paul George ($9,100 DK/$8,800 FD) – You’ll notice that I don’t have Jame Harden in the first slot. If he’s going to continue shooting the ball 14 and 17 times, it’s very hard to pay the top dollar for him. George on the other hand is the co-leader with Kawhi Leonard at a 30% usage rate and a 1.32 FPPM. PG is playing almost 34 minutes a night, which is a heavy workload. On DK, the price is a little too high for my liking. We do have blowout concerns (especially if Steph sits), but the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace which is a huge upgrade from 29th for the Clips.

Jaylen Brown ($8,700 DK/$8,000 FD) – Goodness the price is high on DK. It’s hard to argue considering the Celtics are playing the Wizards, the holy grail of DFS goodness. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and allows the most real points. It’s a fairly easy equation from there when the Celts are 22nd in pace. Brown has the slightly lower usage on the team at 28.7% but that is more than enough for this spot.

Caris LeVert ($7,400 DK/$6,800 FD) – We’ll get the lock of the slate out of the way now. I really don’t care what other news breaks today. The only way LeVert will not be in my lineups is if the Nets aren’t permitted to play due to a positive Covid test from the Sixers last night. In the two games that Kyrie and KD have been out, LeVert has 50 and 60 DK points. Even 50 would be about 7x at his DK price, which is higher. When the Nets have played like this, LeVert is at a 38.2% usage and a 1.47 FPPM. He. Is. Too. Cheap.

Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – This is only if Fox is out. When Fox went down early, the rookie stepped up and played 34 minutes. Considering he went for 17/7/6, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t draw the same responsibilities again in this game. Haliburton only has a 16.8% usage when Fox is off the floor, but the FPPM is spiked at 1.12. The Raptors and Kings play at the 10th and 11th highest pace in the league, making this a good spot for Haliburton to rack up stats again.

Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal (lock on DK if Westy is out, the FD price is a lot), Fred VanVleet

Small Forward

Joe Harris ($5,500 DK/$4,900 FD) – We normally start at the top of salary, but we’re talking Harris first. On FD (and I think even on DK), folks will rightfully chase Harris. He went bonkers yesterday, with 28 points, six boards and four dimes. He played 30 minutes and hit six triples, racking up over 40 DK in the process. Knowing that KD and Kyrie are out means there’s a ton of shots that are up for grabs. Harris is a sharpshooter that contributes in other categories, perfect for us.

Jayson Tatum ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – For as much as I’d like to play Jaylen Brown, I’m always going to prefer Tatum. Get these to guys out in a pace up matchup and watch the production fly. Tatum has the FPPM lead a 1.34 and there’s really nobody on the wings that can hang with him tonight. This young man is shooting 45.1% from deep early on and the Wizards allow the fourth-highest percentage from three in the league.

Jerami Grant ($7,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – The price is slightly high but the floor is there in spades for Grant. Only once all year has he been under 30 DK, which is a little over 4x at this price. Yes, we want more than that but floor matters as well. He’s playing so many minutes right now, ninth in the league. It’s no wonder he piles up fantasy points with a 1.07 FPPM and he’s one of the prime offensive players on the Pistons. Phoenix is a good team but Grant is top player on a bad team and that works for stats.

Josh Jackson ($5,300 DK/$5,100 FD) – We’re going to double dip from Detroit because Jackson has a revenge game on tap and we know we can’t miss that. Jackson was a high pick that washed out with the Suns but has been a fantasy asset with the Pistons, sporting a 26.3% usage rate and a 1.13 FPPM. That latter number actually leads the team and his price has fallen since he’s missed a few games.

Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier (if active), Brandon Ingram, R.J. Barrett, Gordon Hayward even though I dislike chasing monster scoring games.

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,800 DK/$9,400 FD) – I simply can’t get around the price on DK but on FD, I’m still interested. Randle is sporting over 28% in usage and a 1.28 FPPM. New York (see Tom Thibodeau) is running Randle into the ground basically, since he’s playing the most minutes in the league. Minutes equal money and Randle is fourth in touches per game on top of that. The Thunder don’t have a lot of defenders down low that can handle him in my eyes, and Randle is still hard to get away from on FD if nothing else.

Aaron Gordon ($6,600 DK/$7,000 FD) – The Magic are fairly thin tonight with Michael Carter-Williams, Fultz and others out. As far as starters go, they could get Fournier back but Gordon has woken up from his early season slumber. He’s hit at least 32 DK over the past three and has yet to top 28 minutes in any of them. If he gets another 4-5 minutes tonight, there should be a threat of 40 DK. What is even more impressive is Gordon hit 32 Dk last game on just seven shot attempts. Houston is next to last in rebounds per game, and Gordon has the opportunity to hit the glass all night long.

Serge Ibaka ($5,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – I know he’s center only on DK but Ibaka just smashed this spot last game and he’s primed to do it again. The Warriors are a pace up spot, are just middle of the pack in rebounding and it’s not a surprise that Ibaka hit his season high in boards last time. Even on a team with Kawhi and PG, Ibaka will still shoot as evidenced by the 13 attempts he took last game. Golden sate is 28th in points in the paint and 29th in rebounds in the paint given up.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, Zion, Brandon Clarke

Center

Jarrett Allen ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – Allen really hung tough against Joel Embiid last night, and this is a better spot on paper. He’s 11th in paint touches on the season and Memphis is 15th in points allowed and 28th in rebounds allowed in the paint. There’s more opportunity for him in this game and the pace is quite attractive, with both teams in the top half of the league. On top of everything else, Allen is 10th in points in the paint and seventh in rebounding on the season. This is really a perfect match.

DeMarcus Cousins ($5,100 DK/$5,300 FD) – ONLY IF Christian Wood is out again, but Boogie flashed back to the glory days last game out. Well, to some extent. He put up 40 DK on just nine real points, which is ridiculous. Boogie was only 2-9 on the night but added in 14 boards and four blocks. Oh, he also only played 23 minutes. That’s basically a 2.00 FPPM mark and we’ll happily take that, even if he hangs around just 25 minutes. The price isn’t right for his role if Wood is out.

Daniel Theis ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – The news from the Celtics is that Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson are questionable under health/safety protocols. That could mean Theis is the last man standing for the most part. The only other big men on the roster are Semi Ojeleye and Tacko Fall, which says a lot. Washington not only boasts the pace we want, and is in the bottom five in points and boards allowed in the paint. Theis is nothing special at a 0.79 FPPM so far but we shouldn’t look past this potential opportunity.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Vucevic (you just will have to decide how much of the Magic you want), Thomas Bryant

DK Core

LeVert, Vuc, Theis, Tatum

FD Core

Vuc (can’t play Theis in cash on FD), LeVert, Joe Harris, Tatum

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/4

We’re only a couple weeks into the season but we’re already hitting the point of injuries that can change the slate to monitor. There’s quite a few tonight that could throw this article into chaos, so I can’t stress enough to be in Discord, check the model and be around towards tip. Otherwise, you might miss out on tonight’s Jalen Brunson in the model. Let’s see where we stand for right now in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/4 and just be prepared for the updates that will likely come.

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Questionable Players

• James Harden
• Luka Doncic
• Darius Garland
• Alec Burks
• Josh Jackson
• Evan Fournier
• Kevin Huerter
• Jeff Teague
• Isaac Okoro

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$9,500 FD) – I believe just based off last night, Curry is going to get plenty of attention. As I’m writing this, Curry is at 55 DK and 45 real points. It’s the end of the third quarter. He reminded everyone why he’s one of the best and has a 1.45 FPPM with a 31.5% usage rate. The Kings are right at the top 12 of three point attempts given up per game and Curry has the ceiling that we crave and the safety that we need in cash. Even with the uneven play from Golden State, Curry is averaging a little over 33 minutes per night.

John Wall ($7,600 DK/$8,500 FD) – I like Wall a lot better on DK salary-wise tonight, but he’s in play on both sites. The usage rate of 32.9% is skewed a bit, as is the 1.34 FPPM since Wall has had a game without Harden. Why is he a cash play? Because he has played 37 minutes in both games so far, putting the Achilles injury behind him. Houston is just mid-pack in pace, but Wall playing this many minutes appears to be a mis-price on DK and a strong play on FD.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 DK/$8,000 FD) – If you can’t stomach Wall in this range, pivot to Fox. The Kings get the Warriors on a back to back game, and the Warriors are bottom-five in real points allowed. Additionally, the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the league and the Kings sit about 16th. That’s a good pace up spot for Fox, and one he should excel in. No player on the Kings has a higher usage rate than the 28.3% that Fox sports and I’ll take him in a game that could be a track meet. This game opened as the highest O/U but that is subject to change.

LaMelo Ball ($5,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – A veritable bargain on DK, Ball has already placed himself tied sixth in steals per game. Last game proved he can be an asset to a fantasy lineup without shooting well, at just 4-12 from the field. However, he played 31 minutes (a career high) and chipped in four boards, five dimes, two blocks and four steals. Ball has the second-highest assist rate on the team and is averaging the highest FPPM at 1.23. I do prefer to use him just on DK as it stands. The number three pick is forcing his way into playing time.

Markelle Fultz ($6,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – I would only use Fultz on FD because the price is getting up there for DK. Early in the year, the Magic are playing at the sixth-highest pace in the league. Fultz is basically in a tie in usage rate and FPPM with Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross at about 26% and a 1.04 FPPM. Collin Sexton has shown strides at the defensive end of the floor, but has been at least a -9 in net rating the prior two years. I’ll bank on the track record here and side with Fultz on FD.

Elf Payton ($6,000 DK/$5,300 FD) – This is another FD play, but his price is just barely moving yet. It’s a big pace up spot for the Knicks, as the Hawks are playing at the ninth-fastest pace. Since New York is 26th, this is a really great spot for Elf in that respect. Just like Sexton, Trae Young has shown some improvements but has still been a terrible defender for two years. Atlanta cleans up the glass with the second-most boards in the league, but Payton has a shot at a double-double with points and assists. Elf and Julius Randle are tied for the usage rate lead and at a 0.98 FPPM, Elf has a great shot at 30 FD again tonight.

Jalen Brunson ($3,300 DK/$4,500 FD) – He has to be mentioned after coming off a 50 burger at 60% ownership in cash. IF and ONLY IF Luka Doncic is out, just plug and play Brunson. The field will (rightly) go back to him. He played 38 minutes and even though he won’t shoot 11-17 again, you can’t play a cash game without him. If he goes nuts again, you’re likely dead in the water.

Payton Pritchard ($3,700 DK/$3,700 FD) – Pritchard makes his first appearance, but don’t go slotting him in just yet. Jeff Teague sprained his ankle on Sunday, and appears likely to not be ready tonight. If he’s out, Pritchard is going to be the next man up by all indications. He played 28 minutes yesterday and Teague leaves behind a 19.1% usage rate and a 0.98 FPPM. I’m not sure Pritchard replicates those exact numbers, but nearly 30 potential minutes as a sixth/seventh man is interesting.

Honorable Mention – Luka (if active), Malcolm Brogdon

Shooting Guard

*Note* It goes without saying that Harden is in play for cash if he plays. Getting a team on a back to back with travel isn’t a spot on paper that defense will be a priority. He is easily the lone and best “spend up” option at the position.

Fred VanVleet ($7,700 DK/$7,900 FD) – Especially if Harden remains out, FVV would be my top target to spend on at SG. He still has room in the true shooting to improve, as he’s about 2% lower and he’s shooting under 40% from two point range for the first time in his career. He’s playing 35 minutes a night and he is chucking from deep at 10 attempts per game which is fifth in the league. Boston is not playing at a high pace, but they aren’t playing defense either with the 12th most real points allowed. FVV is always on my radar for cash.

Buddy Hield ($6,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – I don’t think the price works at all on DK, but he’s super cheap on FD. Hield is a player that I don’t love in cash unless the price is low, because he’s very scoring dependent. He’s actually just ahead of FVV in threes attempted per game and Golden State allows the sixth-highest three point field goal percentage and the highest percentage allowed from deep at 44.5% (pending last night). The other positive for Hield is he’s 10th in minutes per game with a 20% usage rate. That’s enough for FD with the positional rigidity and the salary.

Seth Curry ($5,600 DK/$5,400 FD) – With shooting guard without a lot of big names tonight, Curry checks in as an option. The fear is he’s shot 11-19 from deep in the past three games, and to say that’s unsustainable isn’t going out on a limb. On the plus side, he plays 32-34 minutes a night when the game is close. The game is fast paced as the Hornets are eighth and the Sixers are 11th and the 44.6% frequency of three’s allowed by the Hornets is second. Hield and Curry are very similar so I don’t have a super strong lean and may let the rest of the lineup decide what I can afford.

Honorable Mention – Terrance Ross (much prefer Fournier to be out), Jimmy Butler, Collin Sexton (27.5% usage without Garland)

Small Forward

Jaylen Brown ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – Brown has been flourishing in his new role as Jayson Tatum’s tag team partner. No Kemba Walker and no Gordon Hayward has put just about everything on these two and both have answered the bell. With this being a pace up spot for the Celtics, it’s hard not to like the 29% usage rate and a 1.30 FPPM, the latter which leads the team. Nobody else on this team is above a 19% usage rate and Brown’s FGA have gone up by four per game so far. If he’s getting 20 shots per game, he’s really not quite at the ceiling yet in salary.

Tobias Harris ($7,600 DK/$8,000 FD) – One thing I don’t always love doing is playing someone the game directly after a big outlier for some reason (not counting Steph scoring 62 real points, which is what he ended at). Harris had a combined seven steals and blocks last game, worth 21 of his 59.8 FD points last game. The price doesn’t lend itself to a ceiling game, but the floor shouldn’t be too low for him. I do think I’ll spend on different options tonight.

R.J. Barrett ($6,700 DK/$6,100 FD) – Barrett just does not leave the floor this season, leading the NBA in minutes per game. His rebounding and assists are both up, and he’s only shooting 24.1% from deep and just a 46.6% true shooting rate. When a player is leading in minutes and shooting relatively this poorly, I’m always going to be interested. The price is high on DK, but is a bargain on FD. A lot of the metrics don’t look exceedingly kind with a 0.85 FPPM but the pace up spot and near 40 minutes a night is about all you need.

Kelly Oubre ($5,500 DK/$5,200 FD) – I get that Oubre has been disappointing in some aspects, but he might be finding the groove a little bit. He’s hit 30 FD points in three of the last four, and plays about 30 minutes per night. The funny thing is he and Andrew Wiggins are right within 1% ins usage at 23% and 24%. Sacramento is bottom 12 in points per game allowed and the pace should be brisk in this one with both in the top half of the league. The price has gone down a little too much.

Shaddiq Bey ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – Keep an eye out here. If Jackson is out, Bey could draw another start. The last time he did this, he played 30 minutes and racked up 32 DK points. Sure, he shot 5-8 from deep but just give me 30 minutes on the court and we can figure things out at this price. The line has opened at Bucks -13.5 so the starters could get a few less minutes. I would have to assume Bey would get some run regardless. It’s a very small sample, but in 20 minutes without Jackson, Bey has a 25.8% usage. That wouldn’t stick as a starter but minutes equal money.

Honorable Mention – Eric Gordon (if Harden is out, he would be one of the prime targets), De’Andre Hunter, Gordon Hayward

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 DK/$9,200 FD) – He let us down last game but this is a great bounce back spot for him. The Pelicans are playing very slow at 28th in pace but the Pacers are 14th, so they bring them up a bit. Another factor for Sabonis is he’s fourth in paint touches and ninth in points scored in the paint. Only Golden State lets up more points in the paint than the Pels in the early going and the duo of Steven Adams and Zion Williamson don’t scare me. I was tilted about his shot attempts last game, but I honestly think he makes it a point to shoot more and he already has a 1.31 FPPM and a 23.9% usage. He’s a threat for a triple-double every night and a bankable double-double.

Christian Wood ($7,600 DK/$9,100 FD) – My goodness has Wood justified the breakout calls early on. Wood is fourth in paint touches and shot attempts in the paint and Dallas is 23rd in points allowed in the paint. Wood is being given 36 minutes a night right now and has a 25.1% usage rate, astounding given who he’s playing with. Wendell Carte went 7/7/1 last night in 23 minutes and not being a real part of the offense. Wood is significantly underpriced on DK and still fair on FD. The 1.30 FPPM looks very appealing in this spot. Choosing 1-2 centers on DK tonight is not an easy task.

Jayson Tatum ($8,600 DK/$9,100 FD) – Tatum is cheap on both sites but the DK price is going to be tough to turn away from. He’s only sporting a 55% true shooting rate which is a bit lower than his career. Tatum now leads the team in usage rate and with Teague likely out, both Brown and Tatum likely pick up even more than normal. Pascal Siakam has been a very good defender for a while now but his rating is in the tank to start the year. Spicy P is a -16.6 in net rating which is insanely bad. That’s not likely to stick, but Siakam has not been what everyone thought he might so far. Siakam can give Tatum some issues on a few possessions but he should not scare us enough at this salary.

Aaron Gordon ($5,900 DK/$6,400 FD) – I absolutely love Gordon on DK since he’s still under $6,000 and he approached 30 minutes last game. That’s a big leap from the 20-22 that he’s been on the floor for to start the year. We mentioned earlier that Gordon is a little over 1.00 FPPM and is only at a 51.7% true shooting so far. The Magic will need him to help match the Cleveland big bodies down low and he’s simply too cheap for a player that could see his minutes continue to climb. Gordon has averaged about 33 minutes over the past three seasons.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Marvin Bagley – We’re hoping some value pops up at this position.

Center

Joel Embiid ($9,900 DK/$9,900 FD) – When Embiid is under $10,000, he tends to catch your eye. The Sixers just played the Hornets and Biid scored 46 DK points on just 11 total shots. He leads the squad in usage at 28.2% and FPPM at 1.46. He’s flirting with his career high in minutes per game and the Hornets are 18th in rebounds per game, while Embiid is sixth in rebound chances per night. If he takes more towards the 15 shots he averages tonight, he should close in on the 60 DK point mark.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 DK/$8,300 FD) – Vucevic is a little bit of a bargain on FD, and I really like his chances for a ceiling game here. For having Andre Drummond, it’s a little surprising to see the Cavs outside the top 10 in rebounding. Vucevic gets 15 chances per night right now and they’ll need him to match Drummond. I also think he can wear out Drummond on the offensive end because Drum is going to have to chase him out towards the perimeter. This is quietly a good matchup for Vucevic They’ve faced each other a lot and Vuc has five of his last seven games against Drummond over 40 DK, a safe floor.

Clint Capela ($6,100 DK/$6,500 FD) – Neither site has caught up with the fact that Capela can play at least 30 minutes in a game right now, and DK especially is crazy low. He’s got to be happy playing in a fast-paced offense and being able to get passes from Trae Young. Capela is at a 1.27 FPPM and that’s with his free throw shooting under 20% and true shooting at 54.1%. For comparison, his FT% is 52.2% and the true shooting is 62.8% for his career. He’s not close to being right in that respect, which is only going to raise his production. Despite having Randle and Mitchell Robinson down low, the Knicks are 21st in points in the paint allowed. They’re also just 16th in rebounding, putting Capela in an elite spot.

Richaun Holmes ($5,600 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s too much for me on FD, and I’ll just play Capela. However, on DK where I can play two centers if I want we have a fun conversation to be had. I waned to attack the Warriors with Marvin Bagley, but Holmes is actually the better fit. I referenced earlier that Golden State is giving up the most points in the paint. Holmes is tied for 10th in paint touches overall, and fifth in points in the paint per game. He’s also 13th in rebounding chances and the Warriors are 21st in boards per game. Playing right about 30 minutes per game is going to give Holmes a double-double tonight.

Honorable Mention – Drummond, Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo

DK Core

Shaddiq Bey, Steph Curry, Richaun Holmes, Clint Capela

Keep an eye out on Marcus Smart’s status. He’s questionable, and if he gets ruled out closer to lock we may need to get one of Brown or Tatum into our lineups. Also, even though this is cash focused – I have to say I LOVE Christian Wood in GPP with the chalk coming in on Holmes and Capela.

FD Core

Shaddiq Bey, Julius Randle, Buddy Hield, Steph Curry

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!