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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/20

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/20

We are finally back and rolling with a cash article since there is a whopping 10 game slate tonight! It’s the first night in a few nights (and we only have three tomorrow) that we’ve had a cash slate, so let’s make the best of it. There’s a ton of plays to talk about and spots to exploit in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/20 to find the green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($10,400 DK/$10,000 FD) – I won’t be dissuaded from playing Dame just because of a mediocre game last time out. He put up 50 DK while shooting just 3-10 from deep and he IS the Blazers right now. Without C.J. McCollum on the floor, Dame has a usage rate over 32% and there is plenty to love with him tonight and he has a safe 55 DK point floor with Portland in their current format.

Ja Morant ($7,300 DK/$7,900 FD) – I will have a healthy dose of Ja tonight and even though we’re early, Morant is a candidate for the Core. He’s simply not expensive enough for this spot. Morant is back from the ankle injury and played 34 minutes last game, so we’re good from that angle. Without Jonas Valanciunas on the floor (who is out), Morant has a 29.1% usage rate and a 43.1% assist rate. On top of all that, he gets a Blazers team that is 26th in real points given up. Lastly, he has an easy matchup in the paint. Morant is driving the third-most in the league and is the pick and roll ball handler at a top five rate. Good luck getting Enes Kanter to defend him tonight.

Chris Paul ($7,200 DK/$6,900 FD) – He’s about the most boring option you could have this season, and you won’t catch me playing him on DK. However, he’s under $7,000 on FD and does bring a certain amount of safety to the position. He’s not been below 30 FD points since the calendar flipped to 2021 and even though the ceiling isn’t over 38 in that time span, the salary is more than palatable. Houston playing at the 11th fastest pace certainly helps this play out as well, because the Suns are playing so slow this year.

Patrick Beverly ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD) – This is not my favorite play on the slate, but it’s as low as I’d go on FD. He won’t be the last Clipper featured because they get the nuts matchup. Sacramento is playing at the ninth-fastest pace and are giving up the most points per night. Beverly only boasts a 14.3% usage rate as the big names dominate but the Kings also allow the highest three point percentage in basketball. Beverly is shooting 44% from deep and should get about 25-28 minutes tonight. I don’t think this is a spend down position as things stand. Morant is my favorite and then I’ll supplement with CP3 or maybe one other one, pending the rest of the lineups.

Honorable Mention – Steph, Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, Goran Dragic (if Tyler Herro is out)

Shooting Guard

Paul George ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD)– He might be shooting a 68.8% true shooting rate which won’t stick around but George looks awfully appealing on FD. He’s certainly in play on both sites but I expected him to be over $9,000 in his spot. On the year, his usage is 28.2% and the FPPM is 1.27. There’s not a soul on the Kings that can guard him (or anyone else) and PG13 just put up 31.8 FD points on just 29 minutes last time out against Sacramento.

Victor Oladipo ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – I’m not sure the price came up fast enough for Dipo. In his first game, he played 32 minutes and sported a massive 42.1% usage rate. As Ghost pointed out, he’s on an expiring contract and it benefits both parties for him to get traded again. Showing him off just makes good sense. We did note that Phoenix is playing slow (28th) and is very good defensively (fifth-fewest points allowed). However, it just doesn’t matter as much when we get this level of involvement in the offense.

Terrance Ross ($6,100 DK/$5,300 FD) – Ross flies in the face of most of our normal rules about not liking shooters in cash, but there’s reasons for it. First, the Magic are still possibly short-handed with no Evan Fournier. Without him on the floor this season, Ross actually has a 26% usage rate. He’s still shot dependent, but the Wolves are going to offer chances. They run at the sixth-fastest pace and give up the fourth-most real points. Additionally, Minnesota is in the bottom 12 in three point percentage allowed. That’s enough to consider Ross in cash tonight with a preference on FD.

Fournier will be active tonight, which takes me off Ross as a cash option. That has no bearing on the other Magic we’re going to discuss.

Rodney Hood ($3,800 DK/$5,000 FD) – DK was so busy jacking up Kevin Huerter to $9,500 (seriously…what?) that they forgot about Rodney Hood. He took over in the stating lineup with McCollum out and racked up 28 DK points on 14 shots. That’s key, because McCollum is not only out but his 20 shots per game is missing too. Hood has an 18.5% usage rate and a 0.82 FPPM with CJ off the floor. Those metrics are more than enough at these prices, regardless of site.

Honorable Mention – D’Angelo Russell, Fred VanVleet, Huerter is FD viable if Cam Reddish remains out, Gary Trent (scares the heck out of me and he wasn’t even the first guy off the bench last game)

Small Forward

Jerami Grant ($7,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – Not only does Grant get the team that is running at the eighth-fastest pace, he’s under $8,000 on DK. That feels like a bargain anymore as Grant has been quite the signing for the Pistons (at least statistically). He has a 26.9% usage rate and a 1.14 FPPM so far. The FPPM isn’t anything mind-blowing but then you have to figure in he plays the ninth-most minutes in the association. Given that he doesn’t come off the floor, I’m very interested.

De’Andre Hunter ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Even if Reddish plays, Hunter is still going o see a ton of minutes tonight. Atlanta is still short on the wings and Hunter plays 32 minutes a game. He’s the definition of “minutes equal money” because he’s not doing anything wildly special. When you play this many minutes, the 0.91 FPPM is plenty good enough and the Pistons are in the bottom 190 in really points allowed. This could be an ugly shootout as neither team is very good.

Eric Gordon ($5,500 DK/$5,200 FD) – Gordon made his way back into the Houston lineup and played 33 minutes, which piques my interest. Dipo had all the usage when they were on the court together. At the same time, Gordon played 13 minutes without Dipo and had a 33.5% usage rate and a 1.51 FPPM. If the Rockets are viewing him as the main scorer when Dipo is on the bench, Gordon is still pretty cheap here with a total of 33 minutes. Obviously it’s a small sample size but it’s encouraging nonetheless.

Carmelo Anthony ($4,700 DK/$4,100 FD) – Melo is only a PF on DK, so just be aware of that. The attention will be on Rodney Hood I would expect, especially on DK. I don’t think Melo should be ignored with a 0.83 FPPM without McCollum. That sounds terrible but the 45.7% true shooting rate is not going to hold up. The usage is far more encouraging at 24.2%, the second-highest behind Dame on the team. That’s a bump of right about 4% and this game has shootout written all over it. I’m not buying the 221 O/U at this point and Melo is too cheap for 25-28 minutes tonight.

Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown (more of a floor option so far without Tatum and Kemba is back), Marcus Morris (PF on FD)

Power Forward

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900 DK/$7,500 FD) – I have to admit I am shocked that KP played 33 and 31 minutes in back to back nights the past two games. It’s not how I would have handled an injury-prone player, but here we are. If we don’t have to worry about minutes, Porzingis just feels extremely cheap. He’s only averaging 1.17 FPPM so far on a 50.8% true shooting rate but the 28.5% usage is higher than it was last season. The Pacers are only 28th in rebounds per game and Zinger is going to have to match Damontas Sabonis on the other side. He shouldn’t be under $8,000 ever if his minutes are not restricted.

Aaron Gordon ($7,400 DK/$7,000 FD) – It will be tough to not just play Porzingis in this range, but AG is coming off a monster game. He gets another phenomenal spot against the Wolves, for all the reason we talked about in the Ross blurb. Gordon’s minutes are back to being secure and it’s odd to see a 0.99 FPPM with a 24% usage rate. The true shooting of 47% with Fournier and Markelle Fultz off the floor is weird. He’s at a 51.5% rate on the season as a whole, so we should expect it to come back up. The Wolves are just average in rebounds per game and AG should have a clear path to a double-double.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – We have another LMA spot, and we were close to getting a smash game last time out. He put up 29.5 DK in just 24 minutes, which is actually impressive. Aldridge leads the league in frequency of being the roll man in pick and roll situations at 42.8%. He’s third in points per game, while the Warriors give up the third-most points per possession on that play type. Golden State is also just 21st in rebounds per game, so perhaps LMA can actually grab a few boards tonight. He scored over 20+ real points last time out, and I think he does it again tonight.

Xavier Tillman ($3,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – We have a new name in rookie Xavier Tillman, who has subbed for Jonas Valanciunas in the past couple games. He’s played 28 and 29 minutes the past couple games and now he gets a Blazers team that has very little defense (also read none) in the paint. Tillman has 5.5 paint touches per game in just eight games, and he should be getting a couple easy buckets off Ja drives. He’s especially cheap on DK and very, very affordable on FD.

Honorable Mention – Sabonis, Chris Boucher, Bam Adebayo, Jarred Vanderbilt, Marcus Morris

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($8,600 DK/$9,900 FD) – Oh my goodness what a mis-price on Vucevic by DK. I will be taking full advantage of it as Vucevic is in one of the best spots on the entire slate. With Fultz off the floor, Vucevic has a 29.0% usage rate and a 1.52 FPPM. There is zero resistance on the Minnesota side and with KAT sidelined, there’s not even someone who can hang with Vuc all over the court. I don’t think he’s a must play (although I love him) on FD, but DK I may start with Ja and Vucevic in cash builds.

Enes Kanter ($6,300 DK/$6,300 FD) – We’re sticking in the late game here because Kanter has logged 27 and 28 minutes since Jusuf Nurkic has gone down with injury. The first game he had five blocks and with Morant driving so much, he does have a couple extra chances for that tonight. Memphis does allow the 14th fewer paint points, but are 27th in rebounds in the paint. I’m not sure I’d go here on FD, but as a two center approach on DK I’d be happy to play that.

DeAndre Jordan ($5,500 DK/$4,800 FD) – I know Kyrie is back for the Nets but that doesn’t change the fact that Jordan is the only center on the roster. He’s going to have to deal with Andre Drummond and/or Jarrett Allen all game long. Cleveland has been good in the paint, ranking inside the top 12 in points and boards allowed in the paint. That’s all fine, but just look a the Milwaukee game. They are even better in the paint and Jordan still went for a double-double. Does Kyrie’s presence mean he’ll take less than six shots? I’m not sure on that and he still has some value left at the price.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid

DK Core –

FD Core –

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/18

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Another weekend where a Win Daily subscriber won a whopping $18,000 on $180 of entries so you know we have to bring the heat for Mojito Monday’s edition of the NBA Gems!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,200 / $11,000 DK)

A priority for my main NBA slate lineups, Doncic is finally settling into his standard form that we have become accustomed to. Nearing a ridiculous SIX triple-doubles in a row, where he has four and the other two coming a rebound and an assist short, respectively, Doncic may be tasked with leading a shorthanded Mavericks squad tonight on the second half of a back-to-back. With a 37.5% usage rate on the year, he’s now averaging 28.3/10.2/9.4 and 1.64 FPPM.

Steph Curry ($9,800 FD / $9,800 DK)

The game drawing the least attention at the time of writing is a Curry/LeBron duel? You have my interest. Slated to be the last game on the NBA slate barring any disastrous news, we have Curry taking on LeBron in what has been one of the league’s most storied rivalries in the past decade, as LeBron’s former Cavs faced the Warriors in so many Finals that we lose count.

Jrue Holiday ($7,600 FD / $7,200 DK)

If you’re not playing a certain Bucks star in this game, well, first of all, make sure you do. But if not, you need to consider running one of, if not both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. In a game with virtually no defense from the opposition, Milwaukee’s star-studded starting 5 will be in great hands throughout their time on the court today and having exposure in some shape or form will be key. Despite only having a 19.1% usage rate on the season, Jrue will be key for the Bucks tonight, playing 33+ minutes and leading their offense in transition, where he is currently averaging 2.2 steals per game.

Others to Consider:

Kyle Lowry ($7,400 FD / $7,700 DK)
Dennis Schroder ($6,000 FD / $6,400 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,300 FD / $10,800 DK)

Safe to say it was a successful debut for the newly acquired Brooklyn Net. Coming off a 32/12/14 triple-double, Harden needed only 18 shots to drop 32 thanks to his 15 free throw attempts. If he can continuously attack the basket acting as the primary ball-handler, he’ll be a great asset in Brooklyn, as expected, but temper expectations should Kyrie Irving come back for this one.

Zach Lavine ($9,300 FD / $9,500 DK)

“Isn’t he overpriced?” Maybe – but that is exactly what makes him so intriguing on this NBA slate. If I told you Zach Lavine was the sixth-highest scorer in the league, you’d probably be surprised – and rightfully so – but he is. Averaging 26.9 PPG, Lavine is scoring at a higher clip than the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and LeBron James, just to name a few. In a game where two of the league’s fastest teams and most defensively challenged meet up, he’s definitely on my radar tonight.

Victor Oladipo ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)

On the flipside of the same Houston-Chicago game, Victor Oladipo is making his Houston Rockets debut after being traded for Caris LeVert. Now this can go one of two ways – the Rockets barely use him as they are knowingly shopping him around to accumulate further assets, or they let him show off and drive his trade value up. It would be beneficial to both parties for the latter and that is truly what I’m rolling with here. Sporting a 26.7% usage rate out of Indiana with the likes of Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon on the offense end, Oladipo will be the catalyst for Houston for as long as he is in town.

Others to Consider:

Fred VanVleet ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,500 FD / $10,100 DK)

He takes a back seat to Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo on my list of priorities for this NBA slate, but make no mistake, Kevin Durant is in play on a nightly basis. Averaging over 30 PPG at 30.7 thus far this season, Durant’s 32% usage rate has also led to contributions on the glass and passing the ball to the tune of 6.9 RPG and 5.7 APG. Tread carefully if Kyrie is back in the lineup, similarly to the approach we are taking with James Harden.

LeBron James ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)

As I mentioned in the Curry blurb, LeBron and Steph love to do battle. In the past decade, they have fought for NBA supremacy on Christmas Day games, multiple NBA titles, and individual awards. With an increasing 32% usage rate, LeBron is starting to pick up steam and this is a scary sight for the Warriors tonight, who struggle to guard primary ball-handlers.

OG Anunoby ($5,800 FD / $6,000 DK)

I’ve been trying to get people to take advantage of OG’s play as of late before his price increased, and well, we are now at that point where he is not overly priced but not a great value either. With the Raptors going smaller on a nightly basis due to their struggles in the paint with the Baynes/Len combo at the ‘5’, OG, Siakam, and Boucher have been getting a ton of run. If Porzingis were to sit this one out, OG can truly thrive on the wing versus a Mavericks team that will be once again without Dorian Finney-Smith and possibly Tim Hardaway Jr.

Others to Consider:

Pascal Siakam ($8,200 FD / $8,400 DK)
Khris Middleton ($8,000 FD / $8,000 DK)
Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD / $5,200 DK)
Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000 FD / $5,100 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,400 DK)

The Giannis ceiling game – finally, we have arrived. In a matchup versus Brooklyn that will have little to no defense, 10.4k for Giannis is my lock for tonight’s NBA slate. With a 35% usage rate this season, Giannis is still averaging 1.63 FPPM despite the drop from last season’s 1.89 FPPM and will finally get a chance to see 36 minutes in a game that Vegas has as close as can be.

Anthony Davis ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)

At some point, people will see AD in the winning lineup on an NBA slate and say to themselves “How did I not lock in sub-10K Anthony Davis?”. I will be there for it on that night as I continuously have exposure no matter what the matchup dictates, but facing a weak Warriors interior of James Wiseman and the short Draymond Green/Eric Paschall duo may just be what he needs to break a slate.

Chris Boucher ($8,100 FD / $7,100 DK)

If you have been keeping up with the content this NBA season, you’d know how high I was on Boucher even before the campaign begun. Discussed in our preseason preview show, we went on to say that the Raptors will be just fine if they run Boucher enough minutes at the ‘5’. Now, averaging over 1.44 FPPM and constantly seeing a ton of minutes after starters Aaron Baynes and/or Alex Len struggle, I’m going right back to the well, especially if Porzingis sits out the second half of a back-to-back for the Mavericks.

Others to Consider:

Christian Wood ($9,800 FD / $8,900 DK)
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,900 FD / $8,200 DK)

Centers

Make sure to check the model here as you should for every position on an NBA slate – there is no premium pay up option for Center today on FD and I will likely be using a dual-position player on DK to fill in this spot.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four

I promise we will get back to the cash format when we’re able, but today we have split slates that are four games or fewer. As of now, FanDuel doesn’t even have an early slate like DK does (that one is three games) and both sites have a four game evening slate. We’ll do a core four for the Early on DK, then hit the Late slate as well for both sites. We’ve got quite a bit in front of us to sort through in the NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four so let’s get to work and figure it out!

Core Four DK Early

Damian Lillard ($9,900) – He’s likely to be the highest-rostered player on the slate and I don’t really care. With C.J. McCollum out for an unknown period and missing Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers really live and die with Dame now. Without McCollum, he has a 31% usage rate and a 1.39 FPPM. The Spurs are within 0.2% of leading the league in three point field goal percentage allowed which is not what you want to see when Lillard is coming to town. I honestly expect the usage and FPPM to go up now that he knows he has to carry the team to an even higher extent. The Spurs are 11th in pace and mid-pack in points allowed, a solid spot to attack.

Enes Kanter ($6,300) – I made a calculated fade of Kanter last slate and got housed for it. Not today my friends! Kanter can’t defend, a big reason he’s been on multiple teams and he doesn’t always get minutes. Well, Portland A. doesn’t have a choice but to play him 28-30 minutes and B. don’t play defense anyways. Even on a 17.9% usage, Kanter has produced a 1.32 FPPM and we saw the ceiling the last game. With LaMarcus Aldridge down low, they need some size and Kanter should be slated for at least 25 minutes ago. Kanter already has 6.5 paint touches per game (and going up) and are dead last in rebounding in the paint.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,400) – Oh, did you think I didn’t want to attack Enes Kanter defense? This is a PRIME spot for LMA, who I normally am not that excited for. Today is a different story because the play type that Kanter has been destroyed on for years now is the pick and roll. Let’s take a look and see who is the roll man in that play type in the league…well, look at that. It’s Aldridge at a 39% frequency. I do have to admit that he’s only shooting 38.6% on these plays, but we can bet that Kanter is going to help that go up today. I’m typically not on Spurs when everyone is active, but LMA has a 24.3% usage and just a 0.93 FPPM right now. The main culprit is a 47.9% true shooting rate, which isn’t sustainable.

Trae Young ($9,400) – I know, the Core is expensive and only leaves us $4,500 per player. Minnesota will be short-handed to a big extent, so we have a lot of value coming from that side. Pay attention to Ghost’s model (duh, that shouldn’t need said) to fill things out. Young is in another smash spot here with no KAT down low to help defend. He drives at the fifth-highest rate and even though KAT is not a good defender, him not being there still makes it easier. The Wolves are sixth in pace and fourth-worst in points allowed and these are the game we target with a player like Trae. The 31.4% usage speaks so much to having a 1.20 FPPM and I can’t fathom a 47.1% true shooting rate hanging around. He’s at a 56.5% rate for his career, and this is a good spot to start getting right. He just went for 50 DK on a 7-23 shooting night.

Main Slate Core

We’re going to hold off on declaring exactly who the Core for the evening is quite yet. There’s a lot of news that we need, headlined by Kyrie Irving. He may or may not play, which is massive for the Nets. If he doesn’t play, we can turn to Kevin Durant or James Harden, and my lean is Harden. If Kyrie plays, I’m likely to fade those three Nets since we don’t know how it works yet and nobody is cheap.

The second factor is Victor Oladipo. He’s expected to be active for the Rockets and is likely to be a lock on FD with John Wall still out. However, he’s not even in the player pool on DK. So we can’t play Dipo himself and that hurts some of the value. These are massive pieces to the day and we need some clarity before we can get there. Be sure to check back for the NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four!

*UPDATE*

James Harden ($10,800 DK/$10,300 FD) – It is very difficult to choose studs tonight. However, Harden checks in as one of my top choices. I had a (not exactly risky) suspicion that he would lose his attitude when he got out of Houston. Not only did he drop the attitude, but he dropped about 40 pounds overnight if pictures are to be believed. The Beard also dropped a triple-double teaming up with Kevin Durant. You need one of those guys in the lineup tonight in my eyes with no Kyrie still and Harden is a lock on FD at one of the lowest prices you’ll get.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,400 DK/$11,300 FD) – I talked in Discord earlier today that Greek hasn’t had the ceiling that we’re accustomed to. This has to be that spot. Brooklyn does not have anything in the paint that can deter him and he drives 10.4 times per game. He’s also averaging only 4.8 paint touches per game so far this year, down from 6.0 last year. When Brian and Ghost are in lock step on a player, we should pay attention. I also blame them if he has a floor game (I kid, I kid). He’s too cheap on DK and reasonable on FD as well.

James Johnson ($5,000 DK/$4,700 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play, but I think it would be negligent to have him log another 30+ minutes as he works his way back from injury. The Mavericks are short-handed as is, and if Tim Hardaway is out on top of everything else….yikes. Dallas could be down to nine players plus KP. Whether they have a gimpy THJ or not, Johnson should see 25+ minutes here and he typically racks up at least 3-5 steals and blocks on top of his other production. We also need to be interested in players like Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke pending Mavericks news. The good news is they’re the first game on the slate.

DeAndre Jordan ($4,800 DK/$4,500 FD) – This might not jump out as the best spot for Jordan. After all, Milwaukee is first in paint points allowed and 10th in paint rebounds. However, Jordan is the only viable center. The Nets absolutely need him on the floor as much as he can handle tonight against Greek and Brook Lopez. It helps a little bit that BroLo is not the typical rebounding center either. The model digs him on both sites and on FD, there’s really no a lot of options. Let’s kill two birds with one stone and hope for a repeat of the performance against the Knicks.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA GPP Picks 1/17

billyr011199@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

NBA GPP Picks 1/17

Welcome back to another small four game weekend edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/17. We should have majority of the news we need to build lineups before lock unless something unforeseen happens. Obviously, that would shock absolutely no one now days. A big game I will target this evening is New Orleans vs Sacramento as they are projected for the highest total of 230 points. In this article I will breakdown each game due to the small slate giving my favorite plays from each game based upon my research. In this article I will be referring to DraftKings pricing where Nikola Jokic is the highest priced player at $11,200 facing that stingy Rudy Gobert defense. If no news occurs I love this little four game slate so let’s get into it!

Pace is 1^st being the fastest and Def RTG 1^st is the best defense.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Pace: 4th Def RTG: 6^th Pace: 12th Def RTG: 17^th

76ers

Tobias Harris – ($7,800)

Last night without Embiid we saw Harris eclipse a 31% usage rate, unfortunately his shot wasn’t falling. That usage rate was his highest on the season by 5%. It wasn’t a great performance but I hope that will scare people away so I can fire him up again. A slightly better matchup and quicker pace should allow Harris to put that increased usage to good use. I expect lower ownership tonight than the chalky Harris last night, but it’s hard to ignore the 7% usage increase he holds when Embiid and Curry sit. I will roll out Harris again in hopes for a better result.

Shake Milton – ($5,900)

Milton saw a 31.5% usage right in last night’s game against Memphis minus Seth Curry and Joel Embiid. He had a fantastic night scoring 28 real points in route to a 40 point fantasy performance. When Curry and Embiid sit, Milton see’s a higher usage increase than Harris at 8%. Three straight games Shake has scored 34 or more fantasy points and with that high of a usage rate that is unlikely to change here. Milton is a key part of this 76ers team and it is showing as they are missing some key pieces.

Dwight Howard – ($4,800)

As Embiid was absent last night and will be again this evening Howard started in his place. Accumulating 34 minutes of playing time and recorded 18 rebounds, eight points, three blocks and assists. Philly ran a tight rotation of nine guys last night and Bradley only played nine minutes. I love this spot for Howard as he matches up with Isaiah Roby the youngster starting for Al Horford. As long as he gets the minutes again he should be able to get two more points to get that double-double bonus on DK.

Thunder

Isaiah Roby – ($4,200)

In his previous two games with Horford out Roby saw a usage rate above 20%. In those games he has averaged 25 minutes of playing time. Looking deeper into that one of those games was a blowout and the other he was in foul trouble and eventually fouled out. He has paid off this salary in both games without Horford and his minutes could increase if he stays out of foul trouble. When he has started this season for Horford his lowest fantasy production is 24 fantasy points. That was the game in which he fouled out as well, this price is just too cheap. Roby will likely be a popular salary saver and his pivot is Mike Muscala at $3,600.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – ($8,300)

He see’s majority of the usage on this team averaging 26% usage rate on the season and 27.4% with Horford off the floor. He has scored over 50 fantasy points in four of his last five games and we are looking at a pace up spot against the 76ers. The games in which SGA has busted this year have all been massive blowouts, but this game is just a 3.5 point spread in favor of the 76ers. In this pace up spot and having the highest usage on the Thunder I like rolling out SGA in tournaments.

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets

Pace: 23^rd Def RTG: 9^th Pace: 25^th Def RTG: 23^rd

Jazz

Donovan Mitchell – ($8,500)

A usage machine Mitchell has been this season averaging 32% usage on the season. He has also had above a 31% usage rate in five of the Jazz last six contests. Denver has struggled defensively as we see with their rating. Shooting guard is the place to attack them as they have given up the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. As we see the pace here could be extremely slow, I will sprinkle in pieces from this game so Mitchell isn’t a must play.

Jordan Clarkson – ($6,300)

In the most recent two games with Ingles out Clarkson has logged 28 minutes of action in both. His usage rate in those games is 28.5% right around his season average. The uptick in minutes is important here as he has seen closer to 30 minutes with Ingles out. In the three games he’s had above 28 minutes his lowest fantasy production is 31 fantasy points. As I just mentioned with Mitchell Denver struggles most against shooting guards as well.

Nuggets

Jamal Murray – ($7,400)

I won’t be playing Jokic given his hefty price tag facing Rudy Gobert defense. Murray could see an increase in usage given the tough matchup for the Nuggets star big. In Denver’s most recent two game Murray is averaging a 28% usage rate which is up 5% from his season average. Not an ideal matchup for Murray but he did go off for 48 fantasy points in a slow game against the Suns. Murray’s lowest minute total is 29 and both of those were on the same back to back set. He should see his regular mid to upper 30’s in minutes here.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings

Pace: 26^th Def RTG: 9^th Pace: 7^th Def RTG: 30^th

Pelicans

Nickeil Alexander-Walker – ($4,900)

In the previous two games with Lonzo Ball out Alexander-Walker has led New Orleans in usage over Brandon Ingram. A usage of 31.5% in those two games for the starter in place of ball. He gets a prime spot against Sacramento who is bad defensively and plays quick. The Kings have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to shooting guards to make it even better. A beautiful spot here should allow Walker to pay off his highest salary yet this season.

Brandon Ingram – ($8,800)

A couple of tough matchups have hindered Ingram in his two recent games playing both LA teams. A nice rebound spot here for a guy that I don’t think many people will pay up for. He handles majority of the usage on this team regardless of who is in and out. Sacramento has struggled defensively and has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Ingram has recorded at least 35 minutes played in six straight games now.

Eric Bledsoe – ($5,500)

I’m not sure if his eye is cleared up yet but I will take a shot on him in tournaments with Ball out his minutes should be safe. Last game without ball Bledsoe had a usage rate of just under 22% and that was his second largest usage on the season. Obviously, this is a prime spot against the Kings who by far rank the worst defensive team in the NBA

Kings

De’Aaron Fox – ($7,900)

These Kings players are all priced about where they should be in my opinion. Fox hogs a big chunk of usage and the remaining usage is distributed evenly among several players. New Orleans has allowed the seventh most fantasy point to point guards which should bowed well for a point guard with a 29% usage rate in his last five games. Fox is likely to be guarded by Alexander-Walker who I would love to pick on if he gets the start here again.

Marvin Bagley – ($5,400)

He is worth a mention because if he does sit there is some salary relief to consider in Nemanja Bjelica. For now we will talk about Bagley who is second on the Kings in usage averaging a 24% usage rate. The Pelicans have allowed the second most fantasy points to power forwards on the season. Six straight games Bagley has scored more than 20 fantasy points, on these smaller slates a weight consistency a little bit more.

Indiana Pacers vs Los Angeles Clippers

Pace: 15^th Def RTG: 6^th Pace: 29^th Def RTG: 25^th

Pacers

Malcolm Brogdon – ($8,700)

I will go Brogdon over Sabonis tonight simply due to the price. With Oladipo gone and currently no one to fill his place after the devastating news with Caris LeVert. He has been about as consistent as it gets recording more than 33 minutes in ten straight games and shooting at least 18 times in seven straight. Brogdon has seen a 2% usage bump with Oladipo off the floor bringing his usage to 27% just a tick below Sabonis. It worries me if this game stays close but regardless the minutes should be there for one Indiana’s main offensive options.

Edmond Sumner – ($3,200)

Entering the starting lineup for Oladipo against Golden State Sumner saw a season high 31 minutes. Last game he only saw 20 minutes in part due to a blowout. He has scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in both games without Oladipo and is averaging an 18.5% usage rate in those games. That is solid for a player near minimum price on DraftKings. Even if Jeremy Lamb plays he will likely be limited in his first game off a torn ACL, Sumner’s minutes should be safe for just a bit longer.

Clippers

Paul George – ($9,500)

Man Paul George has been rock solid this season a big reason for that is huge minutes. Prior to the Clippers blowout with Sacramento, George had six straight games with 38 minutes or more. He had also scored a minimum of 42.5 DraftKings points during that span. Vegas doesn’t have this game as a major blowout so minutes should be normal for PG. His 29% usage rate facing young Edmond Sumner defense will allow George a fantastic fantasy night.

Marcus Morris – ($4,000)

Morris seems to be back without limitations as he has three straight contests with over 20 minutes played. He has made those minutes count racking up a usage rate of 24% in his previous two games. Likely to seeing the second unit defense of Doug McDermott, is a favorable matchup for Morris. Being one of the lowest salary Clipper players Morris has a good path to hit value with a usage rate behind only George and Leonard.

NBA GPP Picks 1/17

Monkey Knife Fight

76ers vs Thunder

Tobias Harris – 20.5 points – More – He see’s the big usage increase without Embiid. Even if Embiid played this amount of points seems low. I think this number again should be much closer to 24.5-25.5. He just surpassed 20.5 last night without Embiid and had a bad shooting night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 22.5 points – More – The clear focal point of this offense as he leads the usage rate. He has eclipsed this total in four of his last six games, a pace up spot, and Horford out should only increase his shot attempts.

Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/17

I mentioned earlier that I love this slate if we don’t get any crazy news. We have places to be different and not any crazy cheap value that is bound to smash. In a situation we do get news join myself and the WinDaily staff in the Discord Chat to help you make the proper adjustments. Don’t forget to check out the projection models I use those to help build my player pool. Thank you for taking the time to read my article NBA GPP Picks 1/17 breaking down this four game NBA slate. Good luck on all your bets/lineups for this Sunday of NFL playoff football and NBA slate. We will be back next weekend!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Sunday 1/17 Core Four

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Sunday 1/17 Core Four

We have another four game slate tonight, so playing cash games is pretty tough. There’s not a ton of value that is obvious as of now, but that can change pretty quickly as we know. The biggest news as of now remains that Joel Embiid is out for the Sixers, so we have at least one team that will be a little short-handed. Let’s get into the NBA Sunday 1/17 Core Four plays so we can start figuring out what pathways we need to take tonight for the green screens!

Core Four

Nikola Jokic ($11,200 DK/$11,500 FD) – Oh buddy, does it shape up to be a Nikola Jokic day. While Rudy Gobert is (pretty much rightfully) widely considered a great defender, he can struggle with certain players. Joker is one of them with a bullet point. Over the last six games these two big men have faced off, Joker has a 60, 79, 54 and 69 DK point games in four of them. There was one bump in the road where he fouled out in 16 minutes, but I’m not letting that deter me in the least.

Here’s what is really interesting. The Jazz actually give up the most points per possession on post ups at 1.12. However, they only defend it at the eighth-lowest frequency because Gobert is in the paint. Most teams don’t go after it. Well, Jokic is ninth in the NBA in post up frequency and second in field goal attempts per game. Joker also is ninth among starting players in “and one” frequency on post ups. Not only does that mean some chances at free throws, but if Gobert gets into foul trouble it’s all over down low for Utah. Gobert has proven he has issues with Big Honey on multiple occasions Jokic is rocking a 1.63 FPPM on just a 28.4% usage rate. The metrics really support the Denver stud tonight to anchor our lineups.

Zion Williamson ($8,100 DK/$7,700) – The second-year player has been…disappointing? Not quite what we thought? There’s nothing that is a massive reason as to why he’s sitting under 40 fantasy points per game, but one issue is the pace the Pelicans play. Sitting 26th in pace doesn’t exactly seem to suit this team in my eyes, but maybe the learning curve is too steep right now. All this sounds like a poor argument to play him, until we look at the spot he has – playing the Sacramento Kings.

Sac-Town doesn’t believe in defense since they sit dead last in points given up and the eighth-fastest pace in the league. They are also 18th in rebounding and both Marvin Bagley and Hassan Whiteside are questionable. Zion should be able to kill them on the glass regardless and the high pace is exactly where Zion excels.

He’s been sitting right abut in the 5x range lately, but the pace can easily push him towards 6x and higher. Lonzo Ball is out for a bit, and in a 130 minute sample Zion is rocking a 30% usage and just a 1.08 FPPM. It’s just a matter of time before the FPPM catches up with that massive usage, higher than even Brandon Ingram in the sample size. Zion is sitting at about a 4.5% lower true shooting rate, while the Kings allow the eighth-highest FGA from within five feet and the fifth-highest percentage from that range. This has the makings of a ceiling game for Zion.

Update – Everything I said about Zion still stands, but on DK I believe that Damontas Sabonis becomes priority. Myles Turner is out, and the Pacers are fairly short-handed with no Turner, Oladipo and TJ Warren. In 85 minutes this year without that trio, Sabonis sports a 30% usage rate and a 1.42 FPPM. I will try to make the effort to get both Zion and Sabonis on FD, but it’s really not possible on DK.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,300 DK/$5,200 FD) – Still far too cheap on FD and more than palatable on DK, I’m looking for a runback option for Joker. Clarkson fits the bill, as he has put up 41 and 31 DK in the two games Joe Ingles has missed. He’s also taken a total of 31 shots in those two games, only four behind Donovan Mitchell for the team lead. Clarkson is here to chuck and be the scoring punch off the bench, and he’ll do that again tonight.

Not only did he take 31 total shots, 21 came from beyond the arc. His shot can come and go, but Denver sports the fourth-highest field goal percentage from three in the association. If he gets hot in this one, I don’t think 50 DK is out of the question at all. The Jazz staggered him away from Mitchell for about 12 minutes last game, giving him a full quarter worth of time to be the primary trigger man in the offense. The $6,300 on DK seems scary at first, but for GPP settings he’s the perfect mix of role and potential we’d want.

Isaiah Roby ($4,200 DK/$4,200 FD) – Some folks may be sour on Roby because he fouled out last game, but he still hit right about 6x. The price barely moved on DK and in his three starts he’s hit at least 24 DK in each game. If you’re telling me that’s the floor when a player starts, I’d take it at $4,200 every time. The big factor that gives him a bump is Embiid is out for Philly. He’s fourth in free throw attempts per game, so not having to deal with that is a bonus for Roby. He has a perfectly acceptable 0.99 FPPM with Al Horford off the floor. The price works, he matchup is better than normal and we need some salary savings at some point.

With the Sixers game postponed, Nickeil Alexander-Walker takes over this spot as the value that makes the most sense to me. I will stress to backload the lineups on DK! We have some moving pieces in the two later games, so decide on your Denver/Utah pieces and give yourself the best flexibility possible!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA GPP Picks 1/16

billyr011199@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

NBA GPP Picks 1/16

Man have we had some crazy basketball slates lately or what? We have had slate breaking news it seems like every night to allow us to play stars and scrubs lineups. Joel Embiid has already been ruled out along with Jimmy Butler. Other notables listed as questionable are Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Gordon Hayward. With Minnesota having positive COVID tests keep an eye on Memphis as they were the most recent team to play Minnesota. Since Embiid is out our highest priced player on this four-game slate is Damian Lillard at just $9,200. For my article NBA GPP Picks 1/16 I will be using DraftKings pricing. Due to the four-game slate tonight I will just break down each game to determine my favorite plays and go through scenarios due to a plethora of questionable tags.

Pace is 1^st being the fastest and Def RTG 1^st is the best defense.

NBA GPP Picks 1/16

Charlotte Hornets vs Toronto Raptors

Pace: 19^th Def RTG: 6^th Pace: 11^th Def RTG: 21^st

Hornets

Gordon Hayward – ($7,800)

This Raptors match-up is one to target on this small four game slate. They have allowed the most fantasy points to both small forwards and power forwards this season. If Hayward plays he carries the highest usage average on his team at 26%. This match-up is one to drool over if Hayward suits up especially since he has the highest usage rate on his team against the Raptors vulnerable SF/PF positions.

PJ Washington – ($6,400)

I like this play if Hayward plays but I like it much more if he sits. If Hayward sits Washington see’s a 3.5% usage bump putting him at second on the team in usage at 25.6% As I mentioned the Raptors have given up the most fantasy points to power forwards as well. His lowest minute total in his last four is 31 minutes and he has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four. Let’s not forget he just saw this match-up and went for over 40 fantasy points and it’s easily possible again.

Miles Bridges – ($4,500)

Clearly you see the theme here attacking the Raptors weakest spot. His minutes without Hayward have been nearing 30, even if Hayward plays he see’s around 25 minutes. Usage numbers wont be crazy for him but I want pieces of these positions. Bridges has been above 6K on DraftKings earlier this year so this is a bargain price for this dream scenario against Toronto.

Raptors

OG Anunoby – ($5,500)

He is about as consistent as it gets and I will take that for this small slate. Anunoby has scored less than 25 fantasy points in only three of the Raptors eleven games thus far. Small Forward is the position Charlotte struggles with the most giving up the sixth most fantasy points. Anunoby typically has minutes in the mid to upper 30’s along with other Raptors starters. Seeing those minutes with Hayward or Caleb Martin defense will allow Anunoby to pass off his salary with a smaller usage rate.

Chris Boucher – ($6,900)

Raptors have been searching for their big man and it looks like they found him with Boucher. He has played 25 minutes in four straight games and has yet to score under 37.5 fantasy points in those games. He just put of 48.5 fantasy points and a near 24% usage against this same Charlotte team he faces tonight. With Baynes and Len seeing minimal minutes lately at center I feel confident with Boucher and he has been a fantasy point machine given the minutes this year. His minutes are there and its time to fire up Boucher.

You can play any Raptors starters they see at least 35 minutes pretty much every night, about as tight and consistent of a rotation as it comes other than center but Boucher seems to have solidified that.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies

Pace: 4^th Def RTG: 5^th Pace: 19^th Def RTG: 4^th

76ers

Shake Milton – ($5,200)

With Embiid already ruled out its tough to ignore the 8% usage bump Milton gets with Embiid and Curry off the floor. That brings his usage total to 30.9% without Embiid and Curry. If you exclude the first four games for Milton he has been good and consistent regardless of who plays. Curry being out we have seen Milton’s minutes much closer to 30 and above. Given the usage rate, minutes, and price, Milton should be able to smash value.

Tobias Harris – ($7,500)

Harris see’s a massive usage increase much like Milton. Harris’ increase is 7% bringing him to a 30% usage rate without Embiid and Curry. We see other bumps to Harris’ stats with a 8.6% assist rate increase and a rebounding increase. Being that Ben Simmons isn’t much of a shooter Milton and Harris will be relied on to do the heavy lifting in the scoring department. Roll out Tobias comfortably given his massive usage and roll in this offense with Embiid and Curry absent.

Dwight Howard – ($4,300)

Memphis typically plays with two bigs meaning minutes should be solidified for Howard here. Howard clearly isn’t a usage guy but contributes in his rebounding, blocks,and gets a bucket here and there. With over 30 minutes up for grabs at the center position a double-double should be the floor here for Howard assuming he gets the start. I also like Tony Bradley at stone minimum on DraftKings as a sneaky play.

Grizzlies

Dillon Brooks – ($6,500)

I don’t really like much from Memphis especially if Morant plays which I think he will. If he doesn’t though the main piece, I have from this game will be Brooks. He sees the highest usage rate on the team without Morant as he averages a usage of 29%. This is a nice pace up spot for Memphis and the 76ers have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

Jonas Valanciunas – ($7,000)

This is the lowest price that we have seen Valanciunas other than his previous game against the Wolves. Valanciunas has a nice usage rate for a center at a season average of 24%. He has accrued a double-double in nine of his eleven games this season and now looks at a pace up spot against a team missing their starting center.

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat

Pace: 22^nd Def RTG: 23^rd Pace: 8^th Def RTG: 12^th

Detroit

Jerami Grant – ($7,400)

Man, I can’t believe that his price went down as solid as he has been. Grant’s lowest minute total on the season is 34 minutes. In nine straight games he has a usage of at least 25%, with four of those games being above 30% usage. Miami has given up the seventh most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Given the matchup and the pace up spot for Grant another 40-point fantast night is in sight. That shouldn’t be hard to come by for Grant as he has scored at least 42 fantasy points in four out of his last five games.

Derrick Rose – ($5,200)

Returning to the court after a couple game absence is Rose. I don’t believe he will be on a strict enough minutes restriction to where he can’t see his regular 25 minutes. In the eight games that Rose his played this season in six of those he has a usage rate above 30%. Rose leads Detroit in usage rate at an average of 30% on the season. This price is crazy low for Rose as it is the lowest price he has been on DraftKings by $600. I will take the chances in GPP’s on Rose coming back from the injury, after all it was just a week two game absence.

Miami

It all depends on who plays for Miami as the come into tonight with eight players questionable. If Herro plays he is a great option for Miami as he should take the bulk of the usage with Butler out. Adebayo is a fantastic play if he gets the green light as well. Detroit has given up the second most fantasy points to centers on the young NBA season. Check out Discord Chat rooms closer to lock when we receive who is active for Miami.

Atlanta Hawks vs Portland Trail Blazers

Pace: 11^th Def RTG: 11^th Pace: 14^th Def RTG: 25^th

Atlanta

Trae Young – ($8,900)

Young has been cold of late and went 1 for 11 last night against Utah. The plus for that is Young only played 24 minutes so this back to back shouldn’t affect them horribly. Portland has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to point guards this season. That should be a perfect recipe for a point guard like Young who dominates the ball and usage on his team. A season average of 32% usage is tops on Atlanta by far as the next closest rotation player is at 21%. We get a bargain price on Young as well, he was $200 cheaper last night in Utah and that was the cheapest he has been all season.

Cam Reddish – ($4,600)

His minutes are about as safe right now as they will ever be. With Bogdanovic and Gallinari out again minutes at wing for the Hawks aren’t as hard to come by. You wouldn’t see that in his last two games both were massive blowouts. Three games ago is when Bogdanovic got hurt and Reddish saw his season high 34 minutes in that game. A usage above 24% in two out of the three games without Bogdanovic is also something to note for Reddish. A fantastic matchup here as well as Portland is bad defensively and has surrendered the fifth most fantasy points to shooting guards. Let’s not forget they just lost their rim protector in Nurkic.

Solomon Hill – ($3,600)

In the near three games without Bogdanovic, Hill has seemed to benefit some with minutes as he has seen over 20 minutes in three straight games now. He is likely to matchup with Carmelo and see his defense so I don’t mind this as a cheap punt play.

Portland

CJ McCollum – ($8,300)

Nurkic is out with a significant wrist injury and McCollum sees the main usage benefit as gets a bump of 2.3% putting his total at 31.4%. That usage is more than Lillard’s and without Nurkic I think it hurts Dame more in the pick and roll game. In close games Portland rolls their stars out heavy. We saw that recently as CJ logged 39 and 43 minutes before the Indiana game. With his lowest fantasy output of 33 points McCollum really has yet to bust at this price. This game opened at 236 so a fast-high scoring game always benefits McCollum and his shooting.

Enes Kanter – ($5,600)

In the absence of his fellow big man Kanter should take over the starting roll in Portland. Kanter has seen over twenty minutes of playing time in just four games this season. He has scored over 23 fantasy points in all those games making it clear to see if he gets the minutes he should produce. His usage rate is near 20% on the season as well so its not like he isn’t involved offensively. His ownership could be chalky, and Harry Giles could be a sneaky play at a much cheaper price. Giles isn’t likely to see as much Capela defense either.

NBA GPP Picks 1/16

Monkey Knife Fight

76ers vs Grizzlies

Tobias Harris – 19.5 points – More – He see’s the big usage increase without Embiid. Even if Embiid played this amount of points seems low. Regardless Harris should see more and I feel like this number should be more like 23.5 to 24.5.

Dillon Brooks – 15.5 points – More – I like this more if Morant sits a lot more. I think Brooks and the Memphis offense benefits with Morant so I would still take the more if Morant plays. Brooks has the second highest usage on the Grizzlies behind only Morant.

Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/16

Thank you for reading my article NBA GPP Picks 1/16. We have a nice four game slate that only has one player priced above 9K. We are in wait and see mode on the Heat pending who plays. Join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the Discord Chat rooms to keep up with all breaking news and how to handle it. Ja Morant could return tonight as well which is something to watch. Check out the NFL section along with MMA for this action-packed Saturday of sports. We have NFL playoff Saturday along with UFC’s return to ABC from fight island in Abu Dhabi. Set your lineups or place your bets and good luck to you on this sport filled Saturday!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Saturday Slate Core Four

Austin Harmon 4 years ago

written by Austin Harmon

NBA Saturday Slate Core Four

This Saturday night is a weird NBA night, as we only have four games. That’s normally not a night I want to play cash, and we have a unique situation. The Miami Heat are (likely) still down to eight players. Knowing that, the entire cash field will lock in on four or five Heat players. In that scenario, you’re pretty much playing cash in a three players versus another three players. I’m not playing cash like that. Instead, we can play some of the Heat players and then take calculated chances in GPP. This is a GREAT night to dial back the bankroll, pass the cash games, and play GPP with the NBA Saturday Slate Core Four! These will be subject to change with the NBA chaos, but let’s dive in.

Core Four

Chris Boucher ($6,900 DK/$8,100 FD) – Boucher would be too high for me on FanDuel on a normal night, but the PF position is terrible. DK just isn’t being aggressive enough. I expect him to draw some attention, but when I look and see he’s only a bit more expensive than Kelly Olynyk (on DK)…I’ll take Boucher every time in GPP. It just seems when he gets 24+ minutes a night, the fantasy production follows and he does have a 1.40 FPPM and a 21.5% usage this year. Both those numbers surprised me, and Charlotte is 24th and 30th in paint points and rebounds allowed. He just crushed this interior and the Hornets just don’t have a big man that can hang with Boucher. Just pray Nick Nurse lets him on the court long enough.

Tobias Harris ($7,500 DK/$7,500 FD) – This is going to be chalky even in GPP but sometimes you gotta just work with it. Joel Embiid is out tonight and Sunday (so get used to playing Harris) and that’s the green light for Harris. When Embiid is off the floor this year, we’re talking a 24.6% usage and a 1.48 FPPM. Last season, the usage was two percent higher and the FPPM was lower. With Ben Simmons being very quiet this year (to be kind), Harris is not pricey enough. The Sixers are playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and that’s right in the wheelhouse for Harris.

Mason Plumlee ($5,000 DK/$5,800 FD) – I have ideas to attack a two center route on DK with Clint Capela. With Jusuf Nurkic out, Enes Kanter (who can’t defend a pick and roll, something Trae Young does at the fourth-highest frequency in the NBA) is going to be extremely popular and I get it. Even on FD Plumlee is fascinating. This will be rescinded if Bam Adebayo makes it back but if he doesn’t, Plumlee has a very clear path for a big game.

He’s averaging 6.5 paint touches per game and is 16th in rebounding chances per game. PlumDawg only has a 13.3% usage rate but a 1.04 FPPM. Even with Bam in for the bulk of the season, Miami is 20th in rebounding and 22nd in points allowed in the paint. He is a direct pivot to Kanter as well, adding to his appeal. Plumlee was a model darling for a while, and I’m back on board tonight.

Damian Lillard ($9,200 DK/$9,200 FD) – It’s a little early to see what his ownership looks like, but it’s Dame Time tomorrow. I want a big piece of the late night hammer as both teams sit in the top 12 in pace and Portland is 26th in points allowed. Atlanta is 11th, but on a back to back the defensive effort likely slips a bit. Dame has actually been a little bit tough to grasp this year. His last five games include a 36, 71, 38, 33 and a 67. Considering Young is a poor defender himself and the Blazers need to stack wins against teams like these, I expect we get prime Lillard in this game.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/15

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Fajita Friday has to be one of my favorite days of the week: it’s almost the weekend, and these NBA slates are a ton of fun. Today’s edition of the Gems is packed with studs and news to follow, so let’s dive in!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,600 FD / $11,000 DK)

I can easily write up my top play of the NBA slate and refer to his 35.8% usage rate and 1.61 FPPM, amongst other statistics, but instead, let me explain why I love Luka tonight using something that is not quantifiable nor explainable by DFS math: this Mavs/Bucks game is on ESPN with the whole nation watching, where two of the league’s youngest stars are going head to head. With the Bucks shipping their entire future to acquire Jrue Holiday, their bench is terrible – and I truly mean terrible. However, so is the Mavs’; there is no clear edge here for either team to go down in this game to a 10-0 run by the opposition when second units are being ran by the likes of Trey Burke, James Johnson, and Bobby Portis. Enter Luka and Giannis, who go back and forth all night long.

Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $8,700 DK)

Now that we have solidified where our build begins on tonight’s NBA slate, it’s time to start looking how we can jam in another high-profile player. Enter Trae Young, who is $1,000 too cheap across both sites tonight given his upside. If you’re game log watching, you’ll avoid Young tonight – and I’ll gladly take advantage because that is the definition of a fish play. With Rudy Gobert manning the paint for the Jazz against Clint Capela, look for Young to get the advantage through a ton of high screens and switch onto Donovan Mitchell, and, well, good luck to DMitch guarding Trae, who also carries a 32.4% usage rate and 24.8 PPG, including 10 attempts from the charity stripe per game.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,300 FD / $8,100 DK)

I probably won’t land here, but Fox is grossly mispriced since he is back to 100% health. If you’re running multiple lines on tonight’s NBA slate, make sure Fox is in your player pool, where he carries a 28.6% usage rate and is coming off two heav-volume games, playing 36 and 38 minutes, scoring a combined 50 points, 11 rebounds, 15 assists, and took a whopping 37 field goal attempts, including 14 3-pointers.

Others to Consider:

Dennis Schroder ($5,900 FD / $6,400 DK)
Damyean Dotson ($5,000 FD / $5,200 DK)

Shooting Guards

Zach Lavine ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)

All season long, Zach Lavine has had to carry his Bulls in game versus far superior opponents in the hopes of squeaking out a win or two. Tonight, he gets a rebuilding OKC team to take advantage of and truly thrive on the offensive end, as he has been all season: sporting a 31% usage rate, Lavine is averaging a ridiculous 27.7 PPG on 49.9% shooting, and his 20+ FGA per game has him on my list as a low-owned play on tonight’s NBA slate, but the price is a bit outrageous to consider him even close to a core piece.

Paul George ($8,800 FD / $9,400 DK)

Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat – the Kings cannot defend primary ball handlers for the life of them. Luke Walton’s defensive system is so bad to the tune of having the worst defense rating in the NBA, and I will continue to pick on it: enter PG13, who is sporting a 28.7% usage rate and is averaging 25.2 PPG on 49.7% shooting, including 51.6% from deep and 90.9% from the free throw line.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $7,700 DK)

Sporting a 26.5% usage rate for the rebuilding Thunder, SGA has had him ups and downs this season, but with a juicy matchup versus the Bulls on tap, he’s in play for NBA GPPs tonight. With the 29th-ranked defense rating, there won’t be much stopping SGA in this matchup other than efficiency and minutes – two things that are out of our control. The controllable measures line up well – fire him up with confidence tonight.

Others to Consider:

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,500 FD / $4,400 DK)
Jordan Clarkson ($5,200 FD / $6,100 DK)

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($9,900 FD / $9,700 DK)

If you’re not going Trae or KAT as your third stud on DK, you need to consider one of LeBron or AD. While the Pelicans’ defensive system has improved under SVG, Lonzo Ball has already been ruled out for this contest and Eric Bledsoe remains questionable, meaning LeBron can see the likes of NAW and Sindarious Thornwell on defense – yikes! With a 32.9% usage rate this season, LeBron has only been getting better as both the NBA season and his career goes on, averaging 24.3/8.1/7.5 across 31.9 MPG.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 FD / $9,600 DK)

See Paul George’s blurb as to why we’re attacking this Sacramento defense – Kawhi comes into this one with 29.7% usage rate and a steady 24.8/5/6 stat line, but the potential to have his minutes reduced in favor of PG has me scared at this price tag. Nonetheless, there is no scenario where I see Harrison Barnes guarding Kawhi one on one and coming out of it with a win, so he is certainly in play at sub-10% ownership. I’m out on DK but having to roster two SF on FD makes him a viable pay-up option considering how thin the position is tonight.

Others to Consider:

Malik Beasley ($6,400 FD / $7,100 DK)
Cedi Osman ($5,100 FD / $6,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,800 DK)

See the Luka Doncic blurb as to why we’re attacking the 1-2 punch of this game – with a 1.64 FPPM and 34.2% usage rate, the NBA MVP is back at it again this season, averaging 26.2/10.1/5.5/1.3/1.2 across a mere 31.2 MPG. With the Mavs keeping this one close, Giannis will see 34+ minutes barring any foul trouble and will look to attack the likes of an injured Porzingis, Kleber, Powell, and Co. all night long.

Anthony Davis ($9,800 FD / $9,800 DK)

Can you say it with me? Revenge Narrative SZN folks. While you can argue that he left the Pelicans awhile ago, AD still left with a bad taste in his mouth, and there’s no better way to silence the “Zion will replace AD” truthers than to drop a nice 40-20 game on his former organization. Despite the 26% usage rate this season, AD has still taken over 15 shots per game, but the volume will increase here tonight, and he’ll have ample opportunity to secure more rebounds with Zion back in the lineup for the Pelicans.

Julius Randle ($9,100 FD / $9,100 DK)

The forgotten about PF on FD tonight, Julius Randle remains in play because of two things: for one, he’s been playing outrageously well, but he’s also now under Thibs, who runs his starters into the ground more than Nick Nurse does in Toronto. Playing a whopping 37.3 MPG, Randle will be needed to match up versus the plethora of bigs Cleveland now has, and there is plenty to take advantage of in Jarrett Allen and the foul-prone duo of Andre Drummond and JaVale McGee.

Others to Consider:

Aaron Gordon ($6,500 FD / $7,300 DK)
Brandon Clarke ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)

Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800 FD / $9,900 DK)

Two terrible rebounding teams going up against one another? Yes, please. KAT In the very same matchup just a few days ago, he dropped 25/14 in 34 minutes – without game log watching, the key statistic for me here was that he was able to secure 4 offensive rebounds. With his dominance in the paint and the ability to get out to the 3-point line effectively, he’s simply too underpriced in this matchup.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)

A notable spike in usage to 32.5% since Markelle Fultz went down for the season, Vuc’s 1.45 FPPM makes him an intriguing GPP pivot on an NBA slate where the Boston/Orlando game is drawing next to no ownership. With Boston’s “bigs” slated to return to the lineup, I like the matchup even more because Orlando will have no reason to sit out their stud versus a small-ball Celtics lineup, in addition to the fact that neither Tristan Thompson nor Daniel Theis will be able to guard Vuc in the paint.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000 FD / $7,100 DK)

We spoke about KAT’s ability to secure offense rebounds, but how about JoVal with a whopping 8 (!!) against the Timberwolves last time out. He’ll be much needed to match up versus Towns all night long considering the size mismatch between he and Brandon Clarke, and with Dieng having fallen out of the rotation. If Ja Morant comes back for this one, I’ll slightly downgrade JoVal, but his 45-50-point ceiling at this price makes him a contender for my NBA lineups tonight.

Others to Consider:

Clint Capela ($6,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
Mitchell Robinson ($6,000 FD / $6,300 DK

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/15

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/15

We’re sure to get some havoc on an eight game slate, although it looks mostly calm as of this writing. Only a couple teams will be without star players that we know of, and the prime one is Jayson Tatum. That’s going to significantly effect the status of the Boston Celtics. We’ll get into that as we go and there’s plenty of paths for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/15 to find the green tonight!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

*Note* Ja Morant is questionable. If he were to be full tilt (I doubt it), he would be awfully appealing on DK since he’s under $8,000.

Luka Doncic ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – Luka is coming off a massive game and Dallas hasn’t seen their status change much. They are till missing multiple rotation pieces and Kristaps Porzingis is likely still right around 20-22 minutes. That’s not enough to worry me about the Luka play, provided we get the value to play him. So far, he has a 38.5% usage rate so far with a 1.60 FPPM. The Bucks are playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the league and that’s a big bump from 24th for the Mavericks.

Mike Conley ($6,900 DK/$6,900 FD) – Our old buddy makes it back into the article tonight, with a pace up spot against the 12th ranked Hawks. Joe Ingles remains out and that does help out the main Jazz players, Conley included. He has a 23.1% usage but a 1.20 FPPM which is very interesting. The assist rate of 36.1% is appealing as well and Trae Young continues to be a very under average defender. The DK price is a touch high but I can’t blame you on either site.

Jeff Teague ($4,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – It’s tough to get a handle on the Celtics right now. We know Tatum is out, and Jaylen Brown may or may not play. In either case, I’m looking towards Teague. In a 46 minute sample size, Teague has a 32.8% usage and a 1.17 FPPM with Tatum off the court. He should be plenty clear of the ankle injury that was bothering him before Boston was halted. I want to see the model to confirm, but he really stands out right now.

Damyean Dotson ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – There’s not a ton to break down here as Dotson doesn’t look like anything special. He has a 20.5% usage rate with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland off the floor. However, he’s about the only guard on the roster tonight. Even Yogi Ferrell was waived, and Dotson is going to have to play heavy minutes tonight.

Honorable Mention – Jrue Holiday

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – SGA in a pace up spot against the second-worst defensive rating team in the association? Oh my, wheels up. SGA hit a speed bump last game but the Lakers aren’t on the other side tonight. Darius Bazley could be out tonight and if he is, SGA has a 33.4% usage real and a 1.39 FPPM on the year. Even if he’s not, these are the style of games we want to get after SGA in. He’s the clear alpha in the OKC offense and I really want to play him tonight in some way or another.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,300 DK/$7,500 FD) – I’m leery on DK but the FD price still works out quite nicely. It may seem like an odd pick with Karl Anthony-Towns back in full swing, but over an 90 minute sample with KAT on the court Russell leads the team in usage at 30.6%. The FPPM is only 1.07 which looks like I’m nuts for targeting. However, the true shooting is 47.9% over that sample size. For his career, D-Lo is at 52.6% and Minnesota’s lack of defense keeps every game as a shootout potential.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – With Ingles out, Clarkson takes on a bigger role and is the unquestioned sixth man. The price is too high on DK for me, as I’d rather just play Conley and the security of the minutes. No player on the team has higher than a 1.33 FPPM with Ingles off the floor and FD just simply hasn’t reacted fast enough. Since we need two on that site, Clarkson is one of the most appealing options of the night at the position and should be heavy chalk in cash.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – Lonzo Ball is out and Eric Bledsoe is still questionable. Even though Zion Williamson is back, that actually could help NAW in this spot. The defensive awareness of the Lakers will be focused on Brandon Ingram and Zion. That leaves NAW with a little bit less to deal with and he has been massive with the two members off the court. Over a 51 minute sample, NAW has a 34.7% usage rate and a 1.44 FPPM. That’s skewed by the MONSTER game he just had, but the price is not high enough. I would have to assume the field would go right back to him given the chance.

Honorable Mention – Paul George, Tyrese Haliburton, Cam Reddish

Small Forward

*Note* – If Jaylen Brown is active, he’s lock for me. So far this season, he has a 32.1% usage and 1.27 FPPM to lead the team with Tatum off the court. On DK, he would likely be my shooting guard of choice.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 DK/$9,600 FD) – This position looks rough right now, at least on the low end. It’s always subject to change, but this could be the spot to pay up with Brown and Kawhi. He’s playing 38 minutes a night typically and the Kings have the worst defensive rating in the league, the most real points given up and the eighth-fastest pace. That sounds an awful lot like a game that Kawhi can excel in to a massive extent. He’s had a floor of 50 more nights than not and even with Paul George playing, there’s room for both tonight.

Khris Middleton ($8,200 DK/$7,400 FD) – I’m fairly certain that this is the first time Middleton has made the article, past when Giannis sat late. Even with Giannis on the floor, Middleton is second fiddle in the offense and is sporting a 1.27 FPPM this year. He’s shooting over 47% from beyond the arc and Dallas sits 10th in frequency of three point attempts allowed. Middleton is a sharpshooter with 15 attempts a night and a fair salary.

Otto Porter ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – Porter is a nice value on both sites and has a very solid role in the Bulls offense. The duo of Zach LaVine and Coby White get more attention, but Porter has a 1.11 FPPM which is second on the team. He’s third in usage rate at 20.7% and OKC is just average in rebounding. I think Porter has a solid shot to get more than his six boards he averages and the Thunder are 14th in pace. Porter in an up-tempo game at a reasonable price works for me.

Honorable Mention – R.J. Barrett, De’Andre Hunter

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$9,100 FD) – Another day, and Randle writeup. Part of the reason is he’s almost always popular on FD, and I think that’s probably the case tonight. For some reason, the Cavs are 23rd in rebounding this year even with Andre Drummond. I have no idea how they attempt to play Drummond and Jarrett Allen tonight, so I’m not likely going there. Randle should have a big game regardless. He’s sixth in touches per game and seventh in post ups per game. It just so happens that the Cavaliers give up thee third-most points from post ups in the league.

Aaron Gordon ($7,300 DK/$6,500 FD) – It seems to be a pattern tonight but the FD price is better than the DK price. With the Magic still down a couple players, Gordon has a 1.13 FPPM but he’s got the biggest factor in his corner tonight – minutes. He’s played 35 in each of the past two games and it will NOT hurt him that Tatum is out on the other side. The 25% usage rate without Markelle Fultz on the floor is second behind only Nikola Vucevic and the minutes give us some safety.

James Johnson ($4,600 DK/$4,200 FD) – Johnson played another 25 minutes last time out and racked up 31 FD, largely on the back of five total blocks and steals. He is a better play on that site since his usage is barely 16% and the FPPM is 1.16. Those typically don’t sync up but the pricing on FD is very appealing. Shockingly, we have a few cheap options tonight at the position which is rare.

Honorable Mention – Tristan Thompson (they need someone to help with Vuc and Boston is short), Isaiah Roby (If Bazley is out)

Center

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,900 DK/$10,800 FD) – We finally have a better price on DK, because KAT should never be under $10,000 on that site. He’s averaging 1.54 FPPM so far in his limited action and the 27% usage rate is nothing to sneer at. We just saw this matchup and Towns went for over 50 DK on just 17 shots. As he gets more comfortable, I think we see him get back to the player we know and I’m happy to take the discount. Memphis is ninth in rebounds so KAT will be needed on that end as well as his offensive output.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,000 DK/$9,400 FD) – If you can’t get to KAT, Vuc is a very appealing option a bit lower in price. With the Celtics still down big men and possibly being down to Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis, who in the world is going to guard Vucevic? He’s taken on even more usage with Fultz out of the lineup at 32.5% and the FPPM is 1.54. Those are some big time numbers and Boston doesn’t appear to have the capability to guard him this evening.

Mitchell Robinson ($6,300 DK/$6,000 FD) – If we look at just in the paint stats, Cleveland doesn’t look like the best matchup for Mitchell. There’s a couple factors here. First, Robinson has been getting a ton of minutes the past couple games with 33 in each. He’s cleared a double-double in each and with Drummond and Allen on the other side, New York is going to need the size. As Brian has brought up, I think girth for girth is the saying here. I’m loving the minutes and the chances at another double-double tonight.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jonas Valanciunas

DK Core –

FD Core –

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/14

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Thank you to the boys for covering me yesterday – both Brian and Adam crushed the daily content, as usual, and some key notes in Discord provided so many green screens that I didn’t know which ones to feature in the article. After a much successful day for the team, we’re on to Thirsty Thursday’s Gems and another NBA slate to attack that will see the Miami Heat be extremely chalky – I will not write them up if they are priced under 5k (see below), but they are certainly all in play here.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,700 DK)

Despite only dropping a combined 31 points on 27.27% shooting in his last two, Curry is in play on every NBA slate given the magnitude of his role on a nightly basis. Leading the charge for a playoff Warriors team, Curry’s 31.8% usage rate on offense and season averages of 27.8/5.1/6.4 give him the ability to break any slate – the number of double and triple teams he’s seeing on defense is simply ridiculous, but with the amount of value available to us in the form of a shorthanded Miami Heat squad, his raw point ceiling is more than enough to have him in our player pools.

Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

It’s Dame Time, baby. Let’s get one thing clear here – Portland does not play defense – not even a little bit. We saw what happened yesterday in a game versus the Sacramento Kings, who have much less firepower on offense than the Pacers do. If Portland wants to make it two for two on back-to-back night, Dame will have to build on his 40-point, 13-assist performance from just 24 hours ago, where he also got to the charity stripe a whopping 12 times.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 FD / $8,300 DK)

A nice 1-2 stack in the Portland-Indiana game, Malcolm Brogdon remains too cheap for this individual game considering the Pacers will not have newly acquired Caris LeVert in the lineup just yet. Running the offense alongside Domantas Sabonis, Brogdon’s season usage rate of 24.1% will be much higher versus a high-octane Portland offense that ranks last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, setting him up nicely to build on his season averages of 22.5 PPG and 7.5 APG.

Also Consider:

Dejounte Murray ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)
Terry Rozier ($6,700 FD / $6,200 DK)

Shooting Guards

CJ McCollum ($9,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

Sporting a 28.9% usage rate on the season, McCollum’s key to success has been the time he has spent on the court closing out first quarters and opening second quarters with Dame off the floor: with a bump to nearly 33% usage, McCollum averages 1.42 FPPM during this stretch, where he is often facing backup guards on defense. If you’re not going Dame, CJ makes for a great GPP pivot on this NBA slate considering the majority of the field will pay down at guard tonight.

Tyler Herro ($6,500 FD / $7,300 DK)

He’ll come in at ridiculous ownership, but he is also wildly underpriced on FD. Coming off a game where he saw just under 40 minutes and had 26 field goal attempts, Herro will be relied upon yet again here for a shorthanded Miami team. With a usage rate over 30% in last game with the starting 5, there’s no analysis as to why I need to tell you to consider Herro tonight.

Aaron Holiday ($5,000 FD / $4,500 DK)

Coming in at 1% ownership at the time of writing, Aaron Holiday is surely on my radar for NBA GPPs tonight. While we cannot expect him to replicate his 12 assists from last game, the 16 shot attempts surely caught my eye, as it was only the second time that Holiday has hit double digits in FGA this season. With Oladipo now shipped to Houston, Holiday will have ample opportunity to get there tonight alongside Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis.

Also Consider:

Tyrese Maxey ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

Small Forwards

Tobias Harris ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

Expected back for the 76ers tonight, I’ll be overweight on Harris as the field likely flocks to the Gordon/Robinson duo on FD. Averaging 19 PPG thus far, Harris has been extremely efficient this season, nearing an appearance in the storied 50/40/90 club; he’s shooting 50.7% from the field, 44.7% from deep, and 82.4% from the free throw line. With the number of minutes Ben Simmons played last game coming off the COVID list, it’s Harris’ time to decimate this shorthanded Heat squad.

OG Anunoby ($5,500 FD / $5,800 DK)

Drawing next to no ownership, expect OG to be one of the GPP plays we take a flier on for tonight’s NBA slate. While his statistics are rather unimpressive at times, it’s the matchup that intrigues me: with Charlotte matching Bismack Biyombo on bigger centers and taking him off the floor when the opposition goes small, the Raptors can utilize this to their advantage and run a wing/frontcourt combination of OG/Siakam/Boucher without having cause for concern that they get dominated in the paint.

Eric Gordon ($5,100 FD / $5,100 DK)

While everyone likely flocks to Miami chalk, and rightfully so, I’m good with getting my Gordon exposure on both sites with John Wall already ruled out. He’ll have ample opportunity to both run point and off-ball to the tune of 20+ FGA, and that’s all we can ask for at this price range.

Also Consider:

Duncan Robinson ($4,900 FD / $5,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)

This defensive matchup is easily one of the best on the entire NBA slate. Slated to see the majority of minutes versus Nurkic and Kanter, Sabonis will be a cog at the PF position for me, just as he always is. A near 25% usage rate thus far has Sabonis averaging a clean 21.8/12.5/5.8 on 55.6% shooting across 37.8 MPG, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be relied upon heavily versus one of the worst defensive units in the entire league.

Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,700 DK)

Averaging a robust 9.5 RPG, Christian Wood will have more than enough room to work the paint and the mid-range tonight versus LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl. The Spurs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA both on the offensive and defensive end, and even if Boogie starts, Wood is the main focus on this Houston offense now.

Chris Boucher ($7,800 FD / $6,500 DK)

See the OG Anunoby blurb – the Raptors will be taking advantage of a Hornets defensive scheme that does not trust their bigs – or lack thereof – to intimidate on the inside. Cue a potential 6th-man of the year candidate in Boucher, who has been a force both offensively and on the glass thus far for The North.

Also Consider:

Kelly Olynyk ($5,300 FD / $6,400 DK)

Centers

With the amount of value that is available to us on this NBA slate, there are no other centers I will be playing, at least on FD, other than the following two:

Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $10,000 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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