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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 02/14

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Sunday’s edition of the Gems will see a ton of high-priced players due to the amount of value we already have available to us on tonight’s NBA slate, with more to come, so make sure you’re reaching for ceiling plays when pairing them with high volume fill-in starters for teams such as Minnesota, OKC, and Orlando.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)

No reason not to play Doncic in such an elite game environment considering the amount of value that’s already available to us at the time of writing. Picking up where he left off in a breakout campaign last season, Doncic’s 35.9% usage rate in second in the NBA behind only Bradley Beal, and it shows – averaging 28.5/8.7/9.4 across 35.3 MPG, Doncic is the entire Mavericks offense when Porzingis is having off nights, which seem to be more often than not as of late, and gets the 28th ranked Portland defense tonight.

Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $9,600 DK)

On the flipside of the same game as Doncic, we have Damian Lillard, who remains without backcourt partner CJ McCollum. Now sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the season thanks to a 33.8% clip when McCollum is out, Dame averages over 30 PPG and 20.5 FGA per game with his backcourt partner missing in action. The volume will be there, and while Portland’s 28th ranked defense is atrocious, it’s not like Dallas’ 27th ranked defense is all that much better.

Also Consider:

LaMelo Ball ($7,800 FD)
Dejounte Murray ($7,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

Devin Booker ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)

Finally turning the corner is one of my favorite players in the NBA and a preseason favorite to cement himself in the league. After a rocky start to the 2021 campaign, Devin Booker is sporting a ridiculous 37.3% usage rate in his past three games, where he is also averaging 34 PPG in 36 MPG. Scoring a point per minute is already an impressive feat, but his run has also led to a five-game winning streak for the Suns, and tonight’s game versus a depleted Orlando team gives Book another chance to keep it rolling.

Collin Sexton ($6,300 FD / $6,700 DK)

I wrote him up the last time the Cavaliers faced off against the Clippers and Collin Sexton did not disappoint: dropping a cool 27 points on one of the league’s best teams is always considered a good night for one of the young Cavs’ bright spots, and last game versus LA was an indication of what he will do again tonight. Playing just over 38 minutes in that contest, Sexton shot the ball 21 times and 52.4% from the field, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do so again with how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers.

Also Consider:

Gary Trent ($5,800 FD / $5,800 DK)
Terrence Ross ($5,200 FD / $6,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,900 FD / $7,900 DK)

While Siakam is by no means the sexiest of names to pay up for on tonight’s NBA slate, he is a good one, nonetheless. With KAT back in the lineup for the T-Wolves, their interior defense actually gets worse than with Naz Reid starting, whereby Minnesota ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint with 51.2 per game. Although we may see OG Anunoby returning for the Raptors tonight, he will likely be on a minutes restriction, and Siakam will not lose touches in the paint to Aron Baynes – Siakam only needs little time to inflict damage on this Minnesota defense, and there’s nobody there to stop him on the inside.

Kenrich Williams ($5,500 FD / $5,400 DK)

On such a large NBA slate, never did I think I’d be writing up Kenrich Williams – but here we are. One of the few OKC players that has not been priced out of appropriate range, Williams will likely draw another start at PG with SGA, George Hill, and Theo Maledon all ruled out for tonight’s contest versus Phoenix. In 4 starts this season, Williams has an abysmal 15% usage rate, but that has not stopped his production whatsoever: he’s averaging 12.5/7.5/3.3 on 60.5% shooting during this span where OKC is riddled with injuries, and while the volume isn’t comparable to others in this price range, nobody is a safer lock for 35+ minutes.

Others to Consider:

Kawhi Leonard ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)
Malik Beasley ($7,300 FD / $7,300 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $10,900 DK)

Although the Bucks are heavily favored in tonight’s tilt versus a depleted, rebuilding OKC team, I think they keep it closer than most anticipate; OKC just brought LA to the brink in two straight contests, and there’s no reason to believe why they can’t do the same with Milwaukee. Enter Giannis, who will be attacking the likes of Al Horford and Darius Bazley in the paint all night long, and we have a slate-breaking performance from the back-to-back NBA MVP.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000 FD / $8,500 DK)

This is the riskiest play of all the Gems for tonight’s NBA slate, but my intrigue is high for Porzingis because of the field’s caution with one of the league’s most talented stretch-4s. Facing a terrible defender in Enes Kanter will surely give Porzingis ample opportunity to crush both inside the paint and on the perimeter, while the game environment is second to none on the slate. Whether we get 36 points and 7 rebounds in 32 minutes out of him like we saw last game versus New Orleans, or 15 points and 4 rebounds in 19 minutes versus the Hawks the game prior, is yet to be seen, but the risk/reward is certainly there. I may not land here, but at the time of writing, I’d be lying if I said he doesn’t intrigue me tonight.

Others to Consider:

Value Plays –> Punt PF

Centers

Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $9,800 DK)

Similarly to how I preach that Domantas Sabonis is criminally underappreciated in the NBA community, Vuc is right there with him. Sporting a 28.5% usage rate on the season, Vuc has seen a notable uptick in the past few games with the number of injuries his team is dealing with, and rightfully so; on 30.8% usage, Vuc has averaged just over 27 PPG and 13.7 RPG in his past seven, including three of seven resulting in 60 DKFP or more, one being a 77.8 DKFP performance. The price is creeping up, but there’s no reason for him to be underpriced by nearly $1,000, nonetheless.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500 FD / $9,400 DK)

I don’t want to put KAT in the same category as Kristaps Porzingis in terms of risk versus reward, but it’s close. While he has been essentially unowned since returning from his battle with COVID, Towns has seen 31 and 32 minutes in his past two, respectively, resulting in 21.5 PPG to go along with 9 RPG. Versus a weak Raptors interior defense, Towns can break tonight’s NBA slate at such low ownership – no D’Angelo Russell will result in more touches, and this price point is right where we want him.

Also Consider:

Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100 FD / $7,400 DK)
Enes Kanter ($6,600 FD / $7,200 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14

A big thank you to Ghost and Brian for covering when I was off yesterday but we’re back for a seven-game slate tonight! There’s already a bunch of value with the Thunder and potentially the Magic again We have some great spots to pay up for too, so this is going to be Stars and Scrubs even in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 Injury Report

Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)

Hornets – P.J. Washington (Q)

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)

Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)

Pelicans – Josh Hart, Nickell Alexander-Walker (Q)

Pistons – Mason Plumlee (Q)

Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)

Thunder – SGA, Theo Maledon, George Hill (O)

Magic – Aaron Gordon, Frank Mason (O), Evan Fournier, Cole Anthony, James Ennis (Q)

*Note* If everyone is out and Orlando is down to 8-9 players, feel free to load up on their value plays.

Nuggets – Jamal Murray (Q), Will Barton, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)

Clippers – Paul George (O)

Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke (Q), De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane (O)

Kings – De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 Positions

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($11,100 DK/$11,300 FD) – Brian preaches this all the time and even though he is GPP-focused, this rule can be applied to cash games. If we’re going to have a world of value (and we do), why would we not play Luka in this spot? He legit just flashed slate-winning upside with 80 DK. It’s not smart to bank on the exact same result, but Luka gets the Blazers who are 28th in defensive rating. Through the non-fantasy lens, games like this are super important for both teams. Dallas has been crushed by Covid protocols, but is on a four-game win streak and sits three games behind the Blazers. The season is getting shorter in a hurry, to be frank. The game should be fast, won’t feature a ton of defense, and is already important for the playoff race. Wheels up. I don’t know if we’ll do it in cash, but the run back with Damian Lillard is immensely appealing.

LaMelo Ball ($8,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – The DK price still really freaks me out, but LaMelo continued to start last game (Charlotte started Ball, Terry Rozier, and Devonte’ Graham together last game) and he played just under 37 minutes. With how much Ball does on the court, he’s turning into a go-to option for cash with the safe floor. On the year, Ball leads the Hornets in assist rate at 32.6% and a 1.26 FPPM. That’s just straight up, every player in which is impressive. Now, the Dejounte Murray defense isn’t exactly ideal but Ball is not really that scoring dependent. At this price, you do need some but not an immense amount. I still have no issue on FD with the Spurs being 10th in pace with added chances for production.

Michael Carter-Williams ($4,700 DK/$4,400 FD) – The Magic are a moving target right now, so MCW could fall off the cash radar if other players are in. We were told that he would face a very significant minutes limit on Friday, and he turned around and played 27. If that’s limited, count me in here. He had the ball in his hands a lot more than normal since the Magic literally had no point guard last game. If they find themselves with 8-9 players and MCW is the “point guard”, that’s hard to pass at this price.

Honorable Mention – Dame, Kyle Lowry, Ja Morant, Monte Morris (if Jamal Murray is out)

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DK/$7,600 FD) – I doubt that I’m going there on DK (and he’s not an SG anyway) but the FD price is still appealing. On top of that, the scarcity at the high-end probably makes him fairly popular on FD. Aldridge has yet to make his way back into the lineup, and DDR leads the Spurs in assist rate, usage, and FPPM without LMA on the court. In fact, his 26.8% usage gets boosted by 3% without Aldridge and this is a spot for him to take advantage of. He drives at a top-five rate in basketball and the Hornets are 29th in paint points allowed. Even though DeRozan passes a lot from his drives, this is a spot for him to be aggressive towards the rim and I’m in on FD.

Gary Trent ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – One way to get some Portland run back if you play Luka at a very reasonable price is Trent. His price has dropped under the $6,000 threshold on both sites, which is very interesting. Will he run out there and put up a ton of stats? Nope. What he will do is chuck, especially from deep. Dallas allows a 41.7% three-point frequency and is bottom eight in attempts allowed per game. That is right in Trent’s wheelhouse, as he sits at 162 attempts on the year. That’s with being a backup for much of the season. Don’t be shocked to see him shoot at least 10 triples and this is an elite game environment.

Grayson Allen ($4,300 DK/$4,900 FD) – My path on FD is likely going one of two ways. The first is DDR and one of Trent or Grayson. The other is using Terrence Ross and whoever fits with the build elsewhere. Ross has been taking 20 shots the past couple of nights and is a vital part of Orlando’s offense if they are short again. He’s an elite play in that scenario.

Back to Allen, the Grizzlies are short players just like last game. The former Duke Blue Devil played almost 35 minutes and put up over 30 fantasy points on admittedly great three-point shooting, 60% from deep. That was against the Lakers, who are top five in defensive rating and bottom five in pace. Now Allen gets the Kings, who are the polar opposite of the Lakers. This game should run and gun and Allen is very cheap on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,200 DK/$10,500 FD) – For those of you that are new, I’m not always that big into narratives unless it’s something very personal to the player. It appears that LeBron has gone full Michael Jordan meme about not winning MVP last season.

The man is on a mission right now and it’s to prove he’s still the best in the league, whether Anthony Davis is in or not. In the last game against Denver, Bron went for a triple-double and AD played that game. Now Will Barton is out for the Nuggets, which is bad news bears for Denver. That likely forces Michael Porter to play more minutes and LeBron is going to crush his “defense”. Now, I will likely just spend up to Luka but there is a world we can play both with Magic players, and maybe that’s what ends up happening tonight.

Kyle Anderson ($6,300 DK/$5,900 FD) – Since I’m not very likely to play Ja against the Kings, I may as well look at getting some other pieces. Anderson is never going to bowl you over, but as a player who can flirt with 30 fantasy points on six real points, we can give him a strong look on FD. The price is too rich for me on DK but the elite pace-up spot stands out for a guy like Slo-Mo. He played 30 minutes last game and will again tonight. With a 1.10 FPPM on the fourth-highest usage on the team, he can rack up the stats in a track meet.

Kenrich Williams ($5,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – Williams might be my favorite Thunder player since the price really doesn’t match the upside. He’s had the ball in his hands a ton more lately, and it’s showed. He flirted with a low-end triple-double last game and dished out nine dimes. He’s rocking a 0.85 FPPM with the Thunder down so many key players and that’s just on a 14.5% usage rate. He only shot 3-8 from the field and with the minutes he’s playing, he’s too good of a bargain still. Watch for his PRA on the sportsbook too. The last game it was 16.5 and I’m interested in what it is tonight.

Honorable Mention – Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram, Jerami Grant, Khris Middleton, James Ennis (if active)

Power Forward

Zion Williamson ($8,100 DK/$8,300 FD) – At first glance, this position looks rough as usual on FD. I don’t even like Zion that much, but I feel comfortable with the baseline that he’ll bring me. Giannis is a dynamite play, but I’m not sure if he’ll fit with my builds. Anthony Davis has been the Robin to LeBron’s Batman so I’m looking towards the second-year Pelican here. Detroit is average in paint points allowed and Zion is ninth in that category. The Pistons also don’t have much to offer resistance to Zion and whatever else he wants to do. I think we can at least pencil him for 24 points or more, which is more than I can say about others in this range.

Miles Bridges ($5,100 DK/$5,400 FD) – Bridges is likely to draw some chalk on FD at least, and it’s hard to argue. The high-end is not the most attractive past Giannis and Bridges should play heavy minutes since P.J. Washington likely won’t play due to health protocols. Bridges has played at least 27 minutes his past four games and has racked up four double-doubles in that span. He has good chemistry with LaMelo and is good for a highlight dunk almost every game out, but we love the minutes and the dub-dub upside.

Nemanja Bjelica ($3,600 DK/$5,000 FD) – If we get word that Marvin Bagley is out again, Bjelica is going to be stone chalk on DK at under $4,000. He should be too, after logging 28 minutes and a massive 35 DK points last time out. I need to be VERY VERY CLEAR HERE. If Bagley is in, you cannot play Bjelica for ANY REASON. He did not play since January 9th before the last game. You will likely get a zero if he doesn’t start. With Bagley off the court, Bejlica has a 1.00 FPPM. Look for an update if needed in the Discord throughout the day.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, Darius Bazley

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($9,800 DK/$9,900 FD) – The fact he’s not into five digits on either site is crazy to me. He’s hovering between a 1.50 and 1.60 FPPM without his teammates around and is the entire offense. He’s played 41, 38, and 34 minutes the past three with at least 21 shots every single night. Deandre Ayton is still a very poor defender and I’m more or less all in on Vuc if the Magic are still beyond thin.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 DK/$7,100 FD) – It’s hard not to lock in Vuc across the board pending the Magic status. However, one reason I may look off him is My Name Is Jonas, a.k.a. JoVal. He’s fifth in paint touches per game and sixth in rebounding chances per game, making him a very interesting option. Sacramento is 26th in paint points allowed and 25th in rebounding. To make matters worse for the Kings, JoVal is right about 20th in points per possession as the pick and roll roll man. The Kings are bottom five in that metric. Memphis actually sits last, but missing Valanciunas hurt their rating quite a bit.

Enes Kanter ($7,200 DK/$6,600 FD) – I really wish I had two center spots on FD because Kanter is so cheap there. Dallas gets smacked around on the interior, in large part because of Porzingis. He’s a lumbering version of himself on both ends of the floor and hasn’t hit his stride after injury. To wit, Dallas sits 29th in paint points allowed and 22nd in rebounds allowed in the paint. Kanter is 12th in paint points on the season and fifth in rebounding chances. This is a dynamite spot, but I’m not sure I can get there on DK. Even on FD, unless he’s projected to be overwhelmingly owned, Kanter may be best served in GPP.

Honorable Mention – Al Horford, Jakob Poeltl

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Cash Game Gems 02/13

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

We’re changing it up today to focus on cash games as we give our man Adam his first day off in forever to celebrate his anniversary – well deserved my friend! Although I will not be playing cash since today’s NBA slate only consists of 4 games, there is still a path to success with contests galore and money to be won, so let’s get to it.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,800 FD / $10,100 DK)

Rarely will I play Curry in cash games simply because the difference between his ceiling and his floor is much greater than we’d like, but this spot is hard to ignore at a thin point guard position. Although a safe floor is one of the most important characteristics of NBA cash plays, amongst others such as ownership and positional scarcity, Curry has been on a tear, averaging 40.25 PPG in his last four on 57.4% shooting, while taking 23.5 FGA per game and making 30 three-pointers during that stretch. Versus Brooklyn’s defense, or lack thereof, it’s a tough pill to swallow paying 10.8K on FD, but he’ll surely be in DK cash consideration.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200 FD / $7,500 DK)

I could’ve easily written up Kyrie Irving here, or Kendrick Nunn, who should be getting another spot start with Goran Dragic sidelined for the Miami Heat, but remember, the Gems today are for cash games, and there is no safer option than Malcolm Brogdon as our PG2 on tonight’s NBA slate. Sporting a 26.1% usage rate for the Pacers, Brogdon is heavily involved on both ends of the floor, and he will be tasked with heavy minutes once again as he attempts to slow down Trae Young. He’ll likely be the highest owned point guard on the slate, and that’s exactly what we need for cash games.

Also Consider:

Kyrie Irving ($9,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
Kendrick Nunn ($5,300 FD / $5,900 DK)

Shooting Guards

Eric Gordon ($5,600 FD / $5,800 DK)

With Victor Oladipo out for the Houston Rockets tonight, expect Eric Gordon to slide into the Starting 5 alongside John Wall. In 8 games as a starter this season, Gordon is averaging a respectable 22.8/2.5/3 on 46% shooting – while the concern is real when playing streaky scorers in NBA cash games, his price point is safe enough relative to his floor in this one given his expected volume; Gordon has averaged over 17 FGA per game when starting this season and he has gotten to the free throw line 5 or more times in his past four games.

Jordan Clarkson ($4,700 FD / $5,400 DK)

This goes against my rule for writing up plays under the $5,000 FD price tag, but if Mike Conley remains out for the Utah Jazz, you need to lock in Jordan Clarkson as we anticipate high ownership here. Playing his best when he is the 6th man and first one off the bench, Clarkson has been electric for one of the NBA’s most surprising teams all season long, averaging 17.7/4.3/2 across 25.7 MPG with a whopping 28.1% usage rate off the bench. When he comes into the game, he does so to spark the offense, and will be a lock should Conley miss this one.

Also Consider:

James Harden ($10,300 FD / $10,400 DK)
Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,000 FD / $9,600 DK)

Coming off a 3.5 game hiatus after being ruled ineligible to play due to COVID tracing, KD makes his return right in time to face the franchise whom he won two NBA Championships with. Sporting a 30.9% usage rate on the season, KD is currently in the MVP conversation, averaging 29.5 PPG to go along with 7.4 RPG and 5.2 APG. Although he does see a slight decrease when both Harden and Irving are in the lineup alongside him, Durant may see even more minutes at the ‘5’ today with DeAndre Jordan already ruled out for tonight’s tilt; the Warriors will still be without James Wiseman and both teams should have a field day on the inside tonight.

Jimmy Butler ($9,000 FD / $8,300 DK)

I’ll likely be pairing Durant with Danuel House here for the savings, but we cannot ignore what Jimmy Butler has done for the Miami Heat since returning from COVID. In 7 games since making his return, Butler has been filling the stat sheet: not only is he averaging 22.6 PPG, he is also contributing 8.6 RPG and 8.6 APG during this stretch across 34.8 MPG, where the Miami Heat are 5-2. Playing against one of the NBA’s best teams this season will be a daunting task given their defensive skill, but that fits right into Butler’s game – we need to get different in two or three spots to jump the lineup trains, and there’s no better spot than doing so with Jimmy Butler in your lineup.

Others to Consider:

Joe Ingles ($4,900 FD / $5,700 DK)
Danuel House ($4,700 FD / $4,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,000 DK)

I probably won’t play him in cash today given other priorities in this price range, but I’ll never fault you for slotting in one of my favorite players into your NBA cash lineups. More importantly than how talented Sabonis is, the Hawks have been decimated on the inside all season long – John Collins fouls anyone that breathes within 6 feet of his proximity, and Clint Capela is now dealing with a nagging hand injury that has been limiting his minutes on a nightly basis. Domantas had a rough stretch where he struggled from the field, but after dropping 9 of 14 shots last game to the tune of a 26/8/8/3/2 stat line, good for 62 FD points and 59 DK points, the man is back in prime form in a premier matchup.

Julius Randle ($8,600 FD / $8,700 DK)

While we still do not know the extent of Mitchell Robinson’s hand injury from yesterday’s game, we do know that it is “fractured”, meaning that even if it’s an avulsion fracture, he is still likely to miss at least a few games rather than a few weeks. Enter Julius Randle, who was already playing over 36 minutes per game and will now be tasked with taking some minutes at the ‘5’ as the Knicks take advantage of their plethora of guard options in Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, and Immanuel Quickley to run small ball lineups. While Nerlens Noel is also a lock in NBA cash games, do not hesitate to play the two together tonight, as Randle is $1,000 cheaper than he should be, given his career year where he is currently averaging 22.4/11.1/5.8 on 46.9% shooting.

Others to Consider:

Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $6,700 DK)
Nerlens Noel ($4,000 FD / $3,900 DK)

Centers

On DK, you need to lock in Nerlens Noel ($3,900)
On FD, use one of DeMarcus Cousins ($6,200) or Kelly Olynyk ($5,100)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash NBA Picks 2/13!

4 years ago

written by

Cash with Flash is back for another day of hopefully successful sports wagers. The Flash shares his best analysis and opinions on three NBA games & more!!

Glad to see you and I hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.

Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 41-32 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 56-33-1 in the NBA, and 88-46 for tennis this season.

Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $10,200 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby making money off of someone else prowess.

Friday was a good day. Our NBA picks went 2-1 and improved our Win Daily Sports record to 8-7 for a slight profit.

Playing the long game isn’t easy and especially not in a world where instant gratification is the norm. Maybe it works in the world of the anonymous Instagram hustlers promoting 100 unit “whale” plays, but not in the real world of professional sports bettors and handicappers.

In the real world, handicappers and gamblers play it smart because we do this for a living. This isn’t a weekend hobby or even a get rich quick scheme. We work hard, crunch numbers, and have a tremendous amount of daily reading.

I know because I’ve been a part of that real world for probably longer than most of you have been alive.

Luckily for me, I had some real solid folks teach me the handicapping business and my goal for this column is to teach you the business so that you can do your own thing.

You are doing it all wrong if you aren’t practicing some sort of money management system. I discuss a couple of them in my books and I will be sharing little tidbits here in this column at Win Daily.

Managing your cash is numero uno. Hiring someone to pick winners is an easy thing to do but if you don’t have the discipline to manage your money correctly then wagering on sporting events for long-term success won’t likely happen for you.

NBA 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders

1). New York Knicks +4.1

2). Charlotte Hornets +3.6

3). Utah Jazz +3.4

4). Chicago Bulls +2.5

5). Detroit Pistons +2.4

NBA 2020-201 ATS Leaders

1). New York Knicks (14-13) +3.7

2). Charlotte Hornets (15-11-1) +3.6

3). Utah Jazz (19-7) +3.1

4). Chicago Bulls (14-11) +2.5

5). Detroit Pistons (14-11-1) +2.4

NBA 2020-2021 Totals Leaders

1). Brooklyn Nets (19-8 over record) +6.0

2). Milwaukee Bucks (15-9-1 over record) +5.1

3). Denver Nuggets (18-7 over record) +4.1

4). New Orleans Pelicans (17-8 over record) +4.0

5). Sacramento Kings (15-10) +3.8

There are five games on the NBA schedule but Cash with Flash is only interested in a couple of these contests.

Houston Rockets vs New York Knicks (+1)

Rockets guard Victor Oladipo has already been ruled out for this contest and that isn’t going to make Houstons job any easier tonight against a Knicks defense allowing the fewest points per game in the NBA this season. Houston has lost four straight and New York played last night against Washington and held the Wizards to just 91 points. New York has held opponents to 103.4 points or less in each of their last five games. I think the Knicks can cover the spread in this one. Cash with Flash says lay the point and take New York tonight.

Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State Warriors

Deandre Jordan has already been ruled out but the Nets will supposedly have Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving available against Stephen Curry and the Warriors. The Nets allow the third-most points per game in the NBA this season but Brooklyn has too much firepower for a Warriors defense allowing the twentieth most points per game this season. The Nets seem to play down to their opponents but I don’t think that’s going to happen tonight. Cash with Flash says to lay the points and go with the Nets to cover tonight.

Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks

We have a matchup tonight between two NBA teams that are struggling right now to win games. Indiana is coming off a Thursday night away win over Detroit to snap a four-game losing streak and Atlanta played last night and lost their second consecutive contest and fourth in their last five games. De’Andre Hunter is out and without him on the floor, and an already shaky Hawks defense becomes much worse. Indiana has the day of rest and Malcolm Brogdon should dominate the Hawks defenseless backcourt tonight. Cash with Flash says lay the points and take the Pacers to cover tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/13

billyr011199@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/13

Today we will be breaking down a short four-game slate for Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/13. Victor Oladipo, Christian Wood, and DeAndre Jordan have been ruled out already. Mitchell Robinson picked up a hand injury last night and never returned, so his status is in serious question. With a smaller slate, plenty of exposure will go towards the Nets vs Warriors and Pacers vs Hawks. Then of course with Oladipo out it will probably be another John wall chalk night.

I will be using DraftKings pricing in my article where James Harden holds the highest salary at $10,400. Kevin Durant will be back for tonight’s game facing his former squad and with Jordan out may play tons of center against Draymond.

For my article today I will talk about my favorite DFS play at each position. For a short slate such as tonight, I will mention some game stack scenarios, as well as my favorite one, offs with high ceilings for GPP’s. Let’s stop wasting time and get into today’s selections for NBA GPP Picks 2/13.

Point Guard

Donovan Mitchell – ($8,100)
Since Oladipo is already ruled out I think Mitchell is an extremely solid pivot off of Wall. A four-game slate like this could see Wall’s ownership through the roof even though he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling lately even with Dipo off the court. A mediocre game last night for Mitchell should keep his ownership in check tonight. As long as Mike Conley is ruled out again, Mitchell will start at point guard and increases his assist numbers by 5.5% when that happens. Since he is starting at point guard he shouldn’t see Jimmy Butler’s defense which makes that 32% usage rate and above 30% assist rate a beautiful thing. Without Conley, Mitchell has shown two ceiling games of at least 56 fantasy points, and if his ownership is less than Wall’s It’s tough to argue this pivot.

Shooting Guard

Malcolm Brogdon – ($7,500)
Brogdon has struggled lately from a DFS perspective but If he is going to have a ceiling game this is it. Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards and shooting guards over the past ten games along with ranking 22nd in defensive rating. If we tack on Brogdon’s team-leading 28% usage rate that should bring a recipe to success. Atlanta just got torched last night allowing the spurs 110 points in just three quarters before the starters were pulled. This game should be tight as the spread opened at just 1.5. Minutes should be safe for Brogdon with a close spread and I just can’t look away from the floor he provides with this juicy matchup.

Small Forward

Danuel House Jr. – ($4,200)
Both House Jr and Sterling Brown are in play for value options for me. I just prefer House and his 13 shots per game recently. He has gone four straight games with double-digit shot attempts with at least seven three-pointers attempted in those games. The minutes have been there recently as well as House has played 30 minutes in three straight games for Houston. With Oladipo off the floor, House is averaging .85 fantasy points per minute. That is a pretty solid number for a player at this price who should see 30 minutes again. I want to spend way down at small forward in general today and I think these two rockets are a good play to look at. Let’s not forget PJ Tucker may sit too which would just make these two plays even better.

Power Forward

Julius Randle – ($8,700)
I become a fan of Randle when he is below 9K because it leaves more of a ceiling. Julius has been priced below 9K just once in his last 15 games and recorded 54 fantasy points in that game. We look at his recent games and he has scored at minimum 43 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. Randle will also benefit if Pj Tucker is out because whoever would start certainly be a downgrade defensively. A massive pace up spot for Randle facing Houston who ranks fourth fastest in the last ten games. Everything is lining up for Randle to have a big game here with a reduced salary.

Center

Draymond Green – ($6,700)

It has been five straight games now that Draymond has recorded double-digit assist numbers. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in four of those five games. In three of Golden States’ last four games, Draymond has played at least 36 minutes. That should be plenty in this amazing matchup against Brooklyn. The Nets rank fourth-worst defensively and ninth fastest over the past ten games. DeAndre Jordan will be out for Brooklyn as well so rim protection may be an issue for them. A fast pace high-scoring game is expected here and a double-double is without a doubt a possibility here for Draymond but I’m going to go on a limb and say he gets his first triple-double of the season tonight!

Game Stacks

Nets vs Warriors
Since Draymond has been starting at the center position I won’t be surprised if Kevin Durant starts at center for Brooklyn. This game should be a massive total with Brooklyn ranking fourth-worst in defensive rating and Golden State being the second fastest team in the league. My stack here would be Steph, Draymond, and Kyrie which still leaves you $4,800 per player. I do like Durant but I expect him to be chalky in his return to Golden State.

Pacers vs Hawks
This is a very interesting game to me because you can stack it several different ways in my opinion. On the Pacers side, it is all about preference as Brogdon and Sabonis are both viable options. I want to avoid Capela rim protection so I will roll Brogdon. Jeremy Lamb has a nice price tag of just over 5K and has shown a ceiling of 35 after his late start to the season. The last piece of this stack is Clint Capela as his ownership should be low. In his past two games, he played just 21 minutes one due to the large blowout against San Antonio and the other due to foul trouble facing Porzingis. People will look at that and shy away from Capela. He is a double-double machine when he sees his usual 30 minutes and now that his price has come back to earth, he is in play again. A stack of Brogdon, Lamb, and Capela would let you do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup with just under 6K remaining.

Monkey Knife Fight

Rockets vs Knicks
John Wall – 21.5 points – More – Wall has scored at least 21 real points in three of his last four. Now he has no Wood or Oladipo here facing the Knicks. His usage rate is nearly 35% without those two on the floor so it’s tough to argue the lower here. Derrick Rose may guard Wall for a bit tonight as well which Is never a bad thing.
Julius Randle – 20.5 points – More – This number seems extremely low with him being in a massive pace up spot. In the last ten games, Houston has been the fourth fastest team. Randle has scored at least 21 real points in six of his last seven games as well.

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/13
We should have a majority of the news we need to build lineups well before lock. Granted something crazy happens which isn’t out of the question these days. A few teams are on the second leg of a back to back (Jazz, Knicks, and Hawks) but I don’t have any rest candidates labeled. Our Discord Chat room is a fantastic place to get all breaking news updates and how to adjust accordingly. You can find other Win Daily staff members and I in there to keep you updated and answer your questions. Remember to check out our projection models as well to check the tops point per dollar plays for this slate.

If you’re into UFC jump in our MMA section and read my article over there for tonight’s Welterweight Championship main event! Thanks for taking the time to read Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/13 article and I hope it helps you out. Good luck and go get one of those screenshot wins!

4 years ago 0 comments

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2.12 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

2.12 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

Welcome to our 2.12 NBA DFS Preview Podcast, where we have some fun while giving you some quick info on each of the games for the night. Stoweby and Michael go over this big, meaty 11 game NBA slate to give you a quick preview of what we’ll be working with. Should be a fun one with some games to completely fade, and some sneaky spots to get different.

News will come down, so make sure you’re in our Expert Chat to hear about everything. Also, Trust The Model, that thing has a mind of it’s own…

If you haven’t already, make sure to take advantage of our Sports Betting offer! The Legend Mike North has joined the Win Daily Sports Family and has been picking winners ever since. Get on the train with us to cash city by signing up and using promo code NORTH for our Sports Betting Membership! This give you 3 months of our Sports Betting Membership at only $50! A $100 savings!

Make sure to follow Mitchell at @MitchellThoenn1 on Twitter and follow Michael at @MichaelRasile1, and of course, Win Daily Sports at @WinDailySports.

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4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash Friday Night NBA Predictions!!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Cash with Flash Best Bets is 6-6 thus far at Win Daily Sports and shares his best bets for Friday night NBA action with analysis, betting stats & more!!

Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 40-30 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 54-32-1 in the NBA, and 88-46 for tennis this season.

Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $10,000 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby.

Wednesday was a mediocre day. We went 2-2 on the day and improved our Win Daily Sports record to 6-6.

We ain’t really losing but we aren’t winning anything here either. Not yet anyway.

I employ a fixed-unit system of bankroll management. I explain this system and its nuances (along with other systems) in my books but the gist of it goes like this; I play one unit on every contest I have an edge in. No more and no less. I’m able to do this because I have a career winning percentage of 56.6 percent and winning at a 62 percent clip this season.

It’s not the sexiest way of doing things that’s for sure but it does work for me. Let’s see what we have on tap for Friday night!

NBA 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders

1). New York Knicks +3.7

2). Charlotte Hornets +3.6

3). Chicago Bulls +3.1

4). Utah Jazz +2.7

5). Golden State Warriors +2.1

NBA 2020-201 ATS Leaders

1). New York Knicks (13-13) +3.7

2). Charlotte Hornets (14-11-1) +3.6

3). Chicago Bulls (14-10) +3.1

4). Utah Jazz (18-7) +3.1

5). Golden State Warriors (13-13) +2.1

NBA 2020-2021 Totals Leaders

1). Brooklyn Nets (19-8 over record) +6.0

2). Denver Nuggets (18-6 over record) +5.6

3). Milwaukee Bucks (15-9-1 over record) +4.9

4). Chicago Bulls (13-11) +3.3

5). Sacramento Kings (14-10) +3.2

We have eleven games on the Friday night NBA schedule but we’re only interested in a couple of these contests.

San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks

San Antonio is a 1.5 point away dogs when they meet the struggling Atlanta Hawks tonight. The Spurs are rested and have won three of their last five games and LaMarcus Aldridge has been ruled out for his fourth consecutive contest. Atlanta has struggled and enters this contest coming off of a controversial away loss to Dallas and has lost four of its last five games. The Hawks will play without De’Andre Hunter as he had knee surgery earlier this week. Look for Trae Young to cook a big pot of soup tonight. Lay the points and go with the Hawks tonight.

New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards

New York is a 3.5 point away favorite and they enter this contest hoping to end a two-game losing streak. The Knicks allow the fewest points in the NBA this season and they face a Washington Wizards team that has scored 113 points or more just once in their past five games. The Wizards are 3-7 ATS as the home team and I don’t believe in Washington at all. Lay the points and go with the Knicks to cover and while you are at it take UNDER 221.5 tonight.

Good luck tonight!!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12

It’s not going to be easy to not be overwhelmed tonight with a whopping 11 games on tap. These are the slates where it’s really best to cross off a few games right off the bat to lessen the load a little bit. We have injuries, back to backs and the normal NBA madness to deal with too. Let’s do our best to lay down a good foundation to build on in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 to find the green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 Injury Report

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)

Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (Q)

Wizards – Bradley Beal (O)

Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)

Pistons – Mason Plumlee was a late inactive last night, we’ll see about tonight

Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Keep tabs on Kemba on a back to back

Clippers – Paul George (O)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter, Otto Porter (O)

Thunder – Mystery bag, possibly including right up to tip

Nuggets – PJ Dozier, Gary Harris (Q)

Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)

Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)

Grizzlies – Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton (O)

Lakers – Anthony Davis (Q)

Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)

Magic – They were down to nine players last night and could be again tonight. If (who knows) we would know before lock, this is a great game script for them. I’d build with 3-4 of them against a high-paced team but I tend to doubt we know. Terrence Ross, James Ennis, Chuma Okeke and Khem Birch are ALL in play along with Vucevic if they are down to 8-9 once again.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 Positions

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($9,000 DK/$8,700 FD) – For me, the higher end of this position begins and ends with Westy for cash. The price is low for any situation, but the Wizards are resting (cough protecting their best asset cough) Bradley Beal tonight. That’s the NBA’s leading scorer by an awful lot. When he’s off the floor this year, Westbrook is sporting a 39.7% usage rate and a 1.62 FPPM. We simply can’t pass that up at this salary, regardless of the Knicks playing at the slowest pace in the league. I don’t particularly love other Wizards since Westbrook will likely do so much, but we’ll adjust for ownership if needed.

LaMelo Ball ($7,700 FD) – He’s only in play A. on FD and B. if he continues to start. Graham is questionable and I would like to think that Ball has earned it, but you never know. With Graham off the court, Ball has a 1.24 FPPM and a 32.9% usage rate, both leading the team. With the Wolves being fifth in pace, this is the perfect kind of spot we want to target LaMelo in. With the blowout nature of last game, Ball did not see the floor in the fourth quarter. Hopefully everyone just sees the 35 fantasy points and skips out on him.

Dennis Schroeder ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD) – We can back off if Anthony Davis is in, but he’s still questionable with the Achilles. The Lakers are likely to take it easy with him, so I’m eyeing Schroeder for sure. He’s topped 35 FD the past three games and played at least 37 minutes. Granted, the OT skews that a bit but he’s still playing plenty. He’ll see Ja Morant defense, which is always interesting and sees a 22.1% usage when AD is off the floor.

Patrick Beverly ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – I will be honest that I would prefer not to play Beverly. He should be over 20 minutes tonight as he works his way back from injury and I’m not interested over on DK. On FD, the salary is low enough to consider. Chicago should pull up the Clippers with their second-fastest pace and Chicago hasn’t played defense since Michael Jordan was there. Beverly also gets a small bump in usage and FPPM when George is off the court. If no other value opens, we can turn here but I’m sure something pops up. The Magic could help out immensely.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Dame, De’Aaron Fox, Hamidou Diallo

Shooting Guard

Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD) – We can get Mitchell in a big-time pace up spot (Bucks are sixth, Jazz are 24th) and he has a 31.7% usage and 1.23 FPPM with Conley out? Sounds like a recipe for success. He’s closing in on 42% from deep and Milwaukee allows the seventh-highest percent and the fifth-most attempts. In addition, Mitchell is fourth in points per possession in spot up shooting and fifth in points from that play type. The Bucks are dead last defensively in that same metric possession-wise. Giddy up.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DK/$7,700 FD) – I’m not in love with the price on either site, but LMA remains out and DDR remains a strong cash option. I tend to not touch him on back to backs, and that paid off last time with just 24 DK points. Both teams are right about top half of the league in pace so this could shoot out to some extent. DeRozan drives to the hoop the fourth-most and even with Clint Capela there, he passes off a drive the third-most in the league. I prefer Mitchell, but wouldn’t tear apart a build to get to him over DDR if that’s how it works.

Collin Sexton ($6,600 DK/$6,500 FD) – The Cavs are coming off getting obliterated by the Nuggets, and this is a solid bounce-back spot. Portland plays at a much faster pace than the Cavs and remain 26th in defensive rating. Sexton is going to be scoring dependent for the most part but he has a 27.6% usage rate and the price has gone down just a bit too much. We can buy the dip in an elite spot at an iffy position.

Grayson Allen ($4,100 DK/$4,000 FD) – This one may seem off base, and we always preach transparency. Full disclosure, I want the model and the guys to check my work here. I can struggle with these lower-tier plays. I’m liking Allen tonight because of the secondary Grizzlies that are out. Allen should see solidified minutes (and he played 29 last game) and with Bane out, they’ll need to replace that shooting. Enter Allen, who is at 38.4% from deep and should see at least 30 minutes tonight. Plus, he went to Duke so I know that’s enough for some users in Discord 🙂

Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Tyrese Haliburton, Gary Trent, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Clarkson (FD only)

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – If LeBron is supposed to be coasting in the regular season, nobody told him. Back to back games with 40+ minutes on the court and the price dropped a hair? Sure. Even without OT, he was looking at 35 minutes a night and I’m taking that from Bron as long as AD is out. Memphis is 23rd in defensive rating and let’s be honest, blowout hasn’t been a concern with LA the past couple games. LeBron is a triple-double threat again and rocks a 33.4% usage rate and a 1.46 FPPM when AD sits.

Khris Middleton ($8,000 DK/$8,000 FD) – This is mostly a numbers play. Middleton played his normal 36 minutes but only scored 18 points, while dishing out another 11 assists. That makes a total of 23 in the time that Holiday has been out and it’s not very often he shoots 41% from the floor in any game. The veteran wing is at a 35.5% assist rate and a 1.47 FPPM with Holiday off the floor this year and I can’t see who defends him on the Jazz. He’s a lethal shooter that doesn’t need to get to the rim, avoiding Rudy Gobert. The price is more at the floor and not accounting for the ceiling.

Kenrich Williams ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – The field may well be pretty interested in Williams tonight, as the Thunder continue to limp into games with a very short rotation. He had a 20.5% usage last game, third on the team behind only Al Horford and Lu Dort. He fell just short of a 1.00 FPPM but with the amount of minutes we can expect, it almost doesn’t matter. He’s too cheap and OKC needs someone who can handle the ball, as they don’t exactly have a point guard by trade.

Joe Ingles ($5,900 DK/$4,900 FD) – I would expect some attention on Ingles, as he popped last time for 35 FD points in 35 minutes. He had the usage I was more expecting in that game at 21.9% and a 21% assist rate. Ingles gives DadBod guys hope, as he doesn’t exactly look like he should be in the NBA as he skipped the athletic look. Still, as a ball distributor in a fast-paced game, he’s interesting. It doesn’t hurt he can can some three’s and the Bucks have been a bottom team defending that shot for a while now.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, Lu Dort, Danilo Gallinari

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$8,600 FD) – It’s a fair price on DK but he’s underpriced on FD, and I would be surprised if he wasn’t chalky there. This is an amazing spot for him as there’s nobody down low to handle him and the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league. Even if they slow down a bit with no Beal, the Knicks are dead last so it’s an improvement. Randle is threatening to lead the league in minutes because Thibs gonna Thibs. He’s also 12th in touches per game. Not paint touches mind you. TOTAL touches. Randle has been a little shaky results-wise lately but he should shake it off tonight and unleash the full 1.25 FPPM he averages.

Once again, PF looks to be a wasteland outside the top options. I’m not looking at Kristaps Porzingis as he’s too unstable for cash. Zion Williamson is scoring a lot fo real points, and not a whole lot else. You can certainly play Jayson Tatum and on DK he’s only $8,800 the much preferred target to Randle on that site. My plan is to spend on Randle or Tatum, and then drop down.

Isaiah Stewart drew the start for Mason Plumlee last night and smashed to the tune of 17/7 over 31 minutes. Honestly, if you tell me he’s getting 31 minutes again I’m in, let alone anything else. He will be the chalk du jour if Plum is out again tonight. We can also potentially look at the Magic for salary relief. Both Chuma Okeke and Khem Birch have been forced to play minutes and they cleared 20 last night as well. I lean Birch, but if you’re playing Stewart there’s no reason to double punt in cash.

Honorable Mention – Tatum, Darius Bazley, Kyle Kuzma (if AD is out)

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$9,800 FD) – Short and sweet – he’s the Magic offense right now, the Kings play at a wicked pace and they can’t defend centers. Richaun Holmes and Hassan Whiteside won’t have a thing for him and his 1.50 FPPM. I’m not concerned about the back to back and Vuc cleared 50 DK last night on a hideous shooting night (8-23) and being utterly invisible for most of the fourth quarter.

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,300 DK) – I’m not paying full freight on FD, but when do we ever get KAT at this price tag on DK? Towns played over 30 minutes in his first game back from Covid and recorded a double-double. He gets to pick on the Charolette front court that we target relentlessly in this game and D-Lo is already ruled out. KAT has logged only 71 minutes without D-Lo but sports a 1.43 FPPM on just a 24.3% usage. That’s 2% lower than his normal rate and won’t stay there, meaning he should clear 1.50 FPPM pretty easily.

Al Horford ($6,700 DK/$6,200 FD) – I’ll be very upfront and tell you this is NOT where I want to go, as I don’t care for the matchup against Big Honey in Denver. I feel like the field may like him after a massive game in LA, and Horford had nearly a 30% usage rate in that contest. If OKC continues to be down to 8-9 players, we have to pay attention to ownership. I’m hoping to not go down this road, but if he’s projected at 50% we need to listen. The good news is the Magic could be totally in the same boat, so we have options.

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11

It was a frustrating night last night with the Pacers not being able to hit the broad side of a barn with their shot. The we get the “news” that Isaiah Roby was a late scratch roughly 10 minutes after lock. We were in the Discord trying to adjust on the fly, but things are tough when a player is $3,700. There’s not going to be a ton of options down there. Hopefully the five game slate tonight is more straightforward so let’s dig in to NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 Injury Report

Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)

Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)

Heat – Goran Dragic (O)

Rockets – Christian Wood (O)

Magic – Cole Anthony (Q), Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Michael Carter-Williams (O)

Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)

Sixers – Shake Milton (D)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 Positions

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($10,000 DK/$10,500 FD) – We could have a very popular punt at this position, meaning we can potentially spend up. The choice between Damian Lillard and Steph is very difficult, but I lean Steph. First, he could potentially have the far easier defensive matchup. If Cole Anthony for the Magic misses, Frank Mason is going to start. I’m going to go on a limb and say he can’t guard Curry. Surely the Magic will not leave him alone but still. It’s not good. Secondly, Curry leads the league in field goal attempts off screens. The Magic gives up the 10th most off screen points per possession, and the defense could be even worse tonight (not that Anthony worries me either).

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 DK/$7,200 FD) – We’ll see if I’m living in the mid-range tonight, but I tend to doubt it. If we do, I’m not going to hesitate to go right back to Brogdon. Not only is he 11th in minutes, he’s top five in total touches as well. The offense in Indy flows through Brogdon and Sabonis. I know they were hideously disappointing last night but they won’t shoot a combined 12-37 very often. The Pistons are 20th in defensive rating and this is a good bounce-back spot.

Frank Mason ($4,000 DK/$4,200 FD) – If Anthony is out for Orlando, Mason is going to be stone chalk. Not only has he gone over 20 DK in the past two games, he played massive minutes when Anthony left the game. Really, Orlando had no choice. They are thin all across the board. After Anthony left at the half, Mason played 20 of 24 minutes in the second. Mason has about a 62 minute sample in the scenario the Magic are in tonight. He’s got a respectable 19% usage rate and a 0.81 FPPM. At the salary, that’s enough for 32 minutes on the court.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, John Wall

Shooting Guard

Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,800 FD) – You may be looking at this and wondering where Victor Oladipo is. It’s interesting to note that with Dipo and John Wall BOTH on the court, Dipo is only at a 23% usage and 0.95 FPPM. That’s over a 101 minute sample, and the correlation with Wall is negative. I’ll pass at that salary.

Onto Powell, the Raptors just play their guys so many minutes it’s hard to overlook. With OG off, Powell has a 21.4% usage rate and 0.88 FPPM. Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating and the Raptors should be able to pull Boston up form their 23rd ranked pace on the season. I’ll likely only use him on FD where I have to roster two.

Terrence Ross/Dwayne Bacon ($5,300 DK/$5,200 FD and $4,400 DK/$4,100 FD) – I’m mentioning both because both are viable. However, it depends on the build. I much prefer Ross. He has the higher upside, and right about the same floor. Ross has a 30% usage to 24.2% for Bacon and the FPPM favors Ross as well. That’s with Ross only sporting a 42% true shooting rate, and he’s much better than that. If the build leaves you without the money to get to Ross, I do get it. However, Ross took 18 shots last game and they need someone else but Nikola Vucevic to score in this offense right now.

Seth Curry ($4,700 DK/$4,100 FD) – It looks like Shake Milton won’t play here, so the Sixers will lean on a guy like Curry for his shooting just a bit more in this one. Playing against Portland doesn’t hurt either, since they are 28th in defensive rating. The Blazers also allow the sixth-highest frequency of three pointers allowed, a perfect spot for Curry. He played almost 30 minutes last game and went 7-13 from the field, a good sing returning from Covid.

Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, Tyler Herro

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($8,400 DK/$8,700 FD) – Jimmy Buckets is the kind of dude we love in cash games. Since returning, he’s not shot the ball more than 19 times and has been 15 attempts or under in five of six. Yet, he has not dipped below 44 DK in any of those gams and one game was just 26 minutes. We’ve talked about it a lot but the Rockets are top-five in pace since the Harden trade, which you love to see. Without Dragic, Buckets leads in assist rate and FPPM at 1.35. He’s still not expensive enough for the safety he brings.

Juan Toscano-Anderson ($5,100 DK/$5,300 FD) – Minutes equal money and JTA fits the bill. Life is going to be easier on him without Aaron Gordon in the lineup. Over the past 10 days, JTA has a 0.78 FPPM which isn’t too fun. However, he’s on the floor all the time. Since Kevan Looney got hurt, JTA has played 26, 39, 33, 28 and 26 minutes. That’s all we need at a very weak position after the top end.

James Ennis ($4,200 DK/$4,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Ennis played 35 minutes last game and the Magic are going to be lucky if they have 10 players tonight. Ennis only has a 0.82 FPPM but with the Warriors playing at a top-five pace, he’s going to fall into some stats just like last game. Orlando only is 21st in pace, so this is a great spot for Ennis to have more opportunity. Pending who’s available, 3-4 Magic may be the route to go in cash just like the Thunder were last night.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Pascal Siakam (too pricey on FD again)

Power Forward

Jayson Tatum ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD) – Tatum is under $9,000 on DK and is in a good bounce-back spot himself. He managed to put in 23 real points while shooting 7-20 last game and only had four rebounds, dealing with the likes of Rudy Gobert in Utah. Boston is back home after a rough West Coast swing and Tatum gets a pace up spot against a sub-par defensive team. On the year, Tatum leads the team with a 31.3% usage rate and the price is tantalizing. When a player can knock out almost 35 DK on 35% from the floor and four boards, I’m interested to buy that next game.

Chris Boucher ($6,000 DK/$6,4000 FD) – I’m pretty torn on Boucher here. On the one hand, he’s reeled off three straight double-doubles and was popular yesterday. On the other, his minutes have gone down in each game. That doesn’t make sense through the fantasy lens, but I will admit I don’t get a chance to watch a lot of the Raptors. When he’s on the floor, he’s a fantasy beast with a 1.24 FPPM. Boston is 25th in paint points allowed and 23rd in rebounding, so the spot makes a ton of sense. We’ll let projected ownership guide us here.

Honorable Mention – Sabonis, Tobias Harris, Draymond Green (there’s not a ton of value here yet, making it more probable that Boucher is very popular on FD at least)

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$9,800 FD) – The fringe Magic are yet to be decided, but you can give me all the Vuc tonight. His price isn’t coming up quick enough and the FPPM is massive at 1.52. It’s a pace up spot, and he’s the offense. Sure, Draymond Green can follow him around on the court like some centers can’t, but Vuc has the advantage on the glass. Golden State is only 17th in rebounding and 18th in paint points allowed. They also allow a three point attempt over 40% of the time and Vuc is shooting just under 42% from deep. I won’t be shocked to see another 55-60 DK tonight. The double C on DK of Vucevic and Boucher could make a lot of sense.

Enes Kanter ($7,000 DK/$6,500 FD) – I’m not excited to look at other centers on FD or elsewhere, but Kanter strikes me as a possibility. Foul trouble is a little scary going against Joel Embiid, but Kanter is under 2.5 fouls per game. You have to play defense to foul other players, in honesty. These two teams jus faced off and Kanter put up a huge double-double for a 41 DK night. Kanter isn’t going to be popular, I would guess but there’s a good reason to play him. He’s the only one that can bring much needed size to the court against Biid, and you just hope the fouls don’t get him.

Honorable Mention – Embiid, maybe Cousins but after his past two games nobody will play him

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 02/10

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

This is probably one of my favorite NBA slates to date and it’s only fitting that it coincides with Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems. I’ve changed it up a bit today since I have a much clearer outlook on my approach this early in the day, listing some core plays for both sites in bold. If you start there and use the model to round out the rest, you may or may not be able to figure out what my main lineups will look like as we approach lock. Enjoy!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($9,700 FD / $8,400 DK)

I almost spat out my orange juice when I wrote up this price tag right before publishing this. Sporting a 31% usage rate through 14 games in his Wizards tenure, Westbrook is averaging a near triple-double on the season to the tune of 19.4/9.2/9. The efficiency has been a career-low, as he’s only shooting 41.3% from the field and 33.9% from behind the arc, but the sheer volume that both he and Bradley Beal carry on a nightly basis is second to none; the 17.3 FGA per game make a 20-10-10 stat line more than plausible tonight against a lackluster Toronto interior defense. DK Core Play.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200 FD / $7,400 DK)

It was difficult to choose a single point guard to slot in here as the FD Core Play, but the former 2nd round pick and NBA Rookie of the Year out of UVA gets the nod. The usage rate has now increased just above 26% and Brogdon is averaging a cool 21.7/4/6.7 across 35.8 MPG. Not only is he going to be relied upon to shut down James Harden tonight, but he’s also in a great offensive spot against Brooklyn, who has allowed opposing point guards to allow the following stat lines in their past 6 games:

Wright: 22/4/9
Simmons: 16/12/8
Lowry: 30/5/7
Westbrook: 41/10/8
Maledon: 24/3/3
Young: 28/3/14

Player Pool:

Luka Doncic ($10,900 FD / $10,800 DK)
Trae Young ($10,100 FD / $9,900 DK)
LaMelo Ball ($8,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
Kyle Lowry ($7,600 FD / $7,300 DK)
Hamidou Diallo ($6,500 FD / $6,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,600 FD / $10,400 DK)

I don’t really need to provide analytics as to why you should be considering James Harden on tonight’s NBA slate. Kyrie is likely to sit and he’ll have the entire offense to himself, where he sports a usage rate north of 30% and 1.58 FPPM. Having dropped 60 or more DK points in 4 of the past 6, he can very well be the highest scorer on the entire slate.

Bradley Beal ($10,600 FD / $9,300 DK)

Alright so normally I would shy away from this price tag on FD when Russell Westbrook is playing, but with James Harden being the exact same price, Beal makes for a great pivot in GPPs. I want exposure to this Toronto/Washington game just as much, if not more than the Brooklyn/Indiana game, and it’s never a bad move to slot in the guy that leads the NBA in PPG.

Player Pool:

Fred VanVleet ($9,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,100 DK)
Collin Sexton ($6,600 FD / $7,000 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($9,400 FD / $8,300 DK)

Even if OG Anunoby returns for the Raptors tonight, my interest in Siakam is the highest it’s been all season long. Sporting a 25% usage rate on the season, Siakam has seen an uptick down the stretch, leading to an increase in production in both scoring and on the glass. With Washington suffering on the inside since the loss of Thomas Bryant, Siakam now has an opponent ranking 27th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game. The last time he faced someone this bad in his favorable metrics was last game against Memphis – he dropped 65 DKFP. DK Core Play.

Khris Middleton ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

With Jrue Holiday missing this game for the Bucks after being an unknown scratch the game prior, Middleton will be taking over many minutes as the primary ball handler. With a 34% assist rate with Holiday off the floor, not only will Middleton be relied upon to continue being the secondary scoring option to Giannis, but he is now the primary playmaker. FD Core Play.

Others to Consider:

Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD / $9,400 DK)
Gordon Hayward ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $8,600 DK)

Ah, we meet again, my good friend. Sabonis szn is in full effect tonight, coming with heavy ownership, but if the sun is rising, and I’m breathing, I’m playing him. A core play on both sites for me tonight, Sabonis gets the juicy matchup against the Nets interior defense, or lack thereof. One of the easiest plays on the NBA slate, and I’m not even considering fading him.

Isaiah Roby ($5,000 FD / $3,700 DK)

He makes the article because he’s right at the 5k threshold on FD, but Isaiah Roby is a DK Core Play for me tonight. Sitting at a mere $3,700, Roby will be locked for 25+ minutes, as the Thunder will be without Muscala, Maledon, SGA, and George Hill. Expect to see more of Diallo and Dort in the backcourt, but the Thunder have not hesitated to run Bazley at point, leading to more minutes for Roby in a thin rotation. Projecting early on as the top value play in our projections, he’s a lock for me barring any news whereby Thunder players magically become active again.

Others to Consider:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 FD / $10,600 DK)
Zion Williamson ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)
Darius Bazley ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

Centers

Not playing any true centers on DK tonight with multi-position eligibility (MPE) or certain power forwards listed above, but for FD, the list goes as followed:

Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
Clint Capela ($8,300)
Andre Drummond ($7,700)
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200)
Myles Turner ($6,800)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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