We sit here today on the eve of the 2023-24 NBA Opening Day. I’ve dropped several articles documenting the betting market for individual awards. However, today, we turn our attention to team performance. It’s one of my favorite articles to write for each season, and if you haven’t done so already, feel free to check out my past Team Win Totals columns for MLB and NFL (a total of 16-4 across those sports in the past two years).

And much like the other sports, my approach to NBA Team Win Totals is similar:

1. Look at a team’s delta in wins between actual and projected.
2. Assess the team’s performance in close games, or as the NBA calls it, clutch games.
3. Examine team changes, including coaches and players, to see if that impacts their projected performance.

I then roll those facts up into a projected win total, weigh it against the Vegas odds, and let the model pump out our best plays.

So, with that said, let’s begin the fun as I present you with my favorite NBA Team Win Totals bets for the 2023-24 season.

Team Win Total Factors

Instead of diving into the land of my overall metrics and how I create my models. I’ll point out some fascinating notes.

#1 Pythagorean Wins

If you’ve read my other articles, this is a staple of determining if a team overperformed or underperformed based on their offensive and defensive numbers. What stands out right away is the number one team in the NBA last season, the Milwaukee Bucks, had the largest win differential in the league (*win differential explained as actual wins vs Pythagorean wins). The Bucks won 58 games, but their Pythagorean Wins were 50. Does anyone recall what happened to the Bucks in the playoffs last year? Maybe the win differential, i.e., playing over their potential, had something to do with that.

The team with the greatest underperforming act of the NBA season was the Detroit Pistons. Their predicted win fell at 22, but they managed to win just 17 games. Could that be considered tanking or just bad luck? I prefer to think the latter and will get into that more below.

But the case is, win differential based on Pythagorean Win totals is a significant factor in forecasting future wins.

#2 Clutch Game Performance

Clutch games are those within 5 points or less with under 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Teams that perform well here typically have high win totals. But once we do over a certain threshold, defined to me as one standard deviation from the data, we start to build a case for this number being unsustainable year-to-year. It’s like the MLB data point of record in one-run games. Yes, you must be clutch to win those, but it can’t be sustained at a 70% clip or more.

For example, the Phoenix Suns led the league in Clutch Game Win % in 2021-22 with a 78.6% win rate. They won 64 games that season. They also lost in the Western Conference semifinals, showing some of their good fortune may have been exhausted. Additionally, they returned to earth in 2022-23, winning just 45 games and posting a 47.2% Clutch Game Win Rate. Those were significant drop-offs from one year to the next.

#3 Roster Changes

Lastly, looking at roster construction is essential. One team that improved dramatically last year was the New York Knicks. One of their biggest jumps was in Clutch Win Rate %, where they went from 40.1% in 2021-22 to 50.2% in 2022-23. Even a casual observer could note the change was attributed to their offseason signing of Jalen Brunson. The Knicks PG finished 5th in the league in Clutch Time points, scoring an average of 4.0 per game.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 53.5 Wins (-110 DK)

Let’s just start this article off with a big splash and talk about the reigning NBA Champions. Denver dominated the regular season and playoffs last year which was a giant leap for this organization and team since they had previously not made it out of the 2^nd round with Nikola Jokic (unless you count the Bubble season where they made it to the West Conf Finals). And everything went just right for Denver as they faced two #8 seeds and a #7 seed along the way. Again, that’s not taking anything away from the Nuggets glorious season, they were by far the best team in the NBA, but it definitely came with some fortune.

And here’s the thing, the Nuggets could easily repeat this season. They are that talented and have a roster that is deep and balanced. But even in a championship season, they overperformed their win projection by 4 games. And they had the 5^th highest Clutch Game Win % at 59.5. As for the offseason, they lost key contributors Bruce Brown, to the Indiana Pacers, and Jeff Green, to the Houston Rockets. They were able to sign G Justin Holiday who will look to compete for one of the top reserve spots with 2^nd year G Christian Braun. So not much changed and the core is still intact which is positive, but also somewhat daunting considering their perceived overachievement in 2023.

The last point I’ll make is this, I looked at the past four teams coming off an NBA championship: Toronto Raptors (18-19), Milwaukee Bucks (19-20), LA Lakers (20-21), and Golden State Warriors (21-22). Each team had a lower winning percentage the next year. For those that played back-to-back 82 game seasons (20-21 was shortened with COVID), the average drop in wins was 7. A lot of that has to do with the toll it takes on players to play into June (while most take off in April). This will be Denver’s first test following such a long season and I believe they’ll fall in line with the past winners. There is merit to a hangover and while the crown is still a mile high in the sky, the Nuggets will regress enough in the regular season to make this bet a winner.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER 47.5 Wins (-120 DK)

The Warriors dropped off significantly last year as they won 9 games less than their championship season of 2021-22. Some of it was due to injury, as their star Steph Curry missed 26 games, the 2^nd most of his 14 year career. The other part of the Splash Brothers, Klay Thompson, missed 13 games though the Warriors were ecstatic with him playing 69 games after missing 1.5 seasons prior. But the true issue with the Warriors was team chemistry. A preseason video at practice caught a squabble, then fight, between Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. The incident injured Poole but also completely destroyed the trust in each other. So much so, the Warriors sent Poole to Washington in the offseason to help cleanse the locker room.

Which brings us to this year, one in which they added veteran Chris Paul to bring leadership as well as consistent play off the bench. And remember, this team won 44 games last season with all the turmoil and injuries stacked against them. So now we’re just asking them to win four more games. They won 53 just two seasons ago and still have the firepower, and coaching, to make a run at the title again.

Finally last season’s metrics have them underachieving in win total by 1.5 games. They were also 15^th in the league in Clutch Win %, winning under 50% of close games. With the firepower on the roster, plus the potential for four HOF’s, this team will drastically improve it’s clutch game performance this season simply by playing more together. The Warriors aren’t dead yet, and they have some whiteboard motivation in the locker room that they’ll use to be a factor once again.

MIAMI HEAT UNDER 45.5 WINS -110 DK

The Heat have Jimmy. And that’s important come playoff time. It’s the regular season where this team finds struggles. Last year, that was due to inconsistent play from key starters as well as injuries. Because of that, the Heat were forced to have 26 different starting lineups. Let that sink in. They had a different starting lineup every 3^rd game.

And if we look back at recent season, Miami has exceeded 45 wins just once in the past seven years. Even last season, they looked lost at times and mustered 44 wins before putting it all together and pushing to the NBA Finals. And speaking of last season, they allowed more points than they scored which was more reflective of a 40 win team. They also won almost 60% of their close (i.e. clutch time) games.

The factors show this team vastly overperformed. While they have a great coach and a reliable superstar, their roster is still stuck in neutral. They did little in FA as their offseason was hitched to Damian Lillard who ended up in Milwaukee. In the end, the Heat are a force come April and May. But between now and then, they will struggle to get to 45 wins. I’ll take the under. 

NEW YORK KNICKS OVER 44.5 WINS -110 DK

The Knicks are back baby! New York advanced to the 2^nd round of the playoffs for the first time in a decade. They upset the favored Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round based on their defensive tenacity and efficient guard play. Now they look to take that a step further as they keep the core roster and added NCAA and NBA Champion Donte DiVincenzo. Keep in mind that the Knicks were 17-8 after adding F Josh Hart.

From a metrics standpoint, the Knicks won 47 games but had a Pythagorean win total of 48 meaning they underperformed by a small margin. They also won 51% of their clutch games, which could rise significantly this year with another year under Jalen Brunson’s leadership.

In short, there is more room for this team to grow. Can they get to the top 2 teams, probably not as they’re still a star or key contributor away. But can they challenge for the 3 or 4 seed, absolutely. 

INDIANA PACERS OVER 38.5 WINS -110 DK

The Pacers improved their win total last season by 10 wins from their 2021-22 number. And they look to make another progressive step forward this season and challenge for a playoff spot. The pieces are there, as they’ve built a young nucleus with seasoned veterans. Led by Tyrese Halliburton, who became an All-Star for the first time last season, they have a budding superstar who is still getting better.

The Pacers added good veteran depth this offseason as they acquired NBA Champion Bruce Brown and exciting wingman Obi Toppin. They also had two first-round picks in which they acquired Jarace Walker and Ben Sheppard. Add that to a few budding talents, like Ben Mathurin, and defensive stoppers, like Myles Turner, and this roster is one of the deeper ones in the East.

One last thing to consider is the Pacers finished 26-22 when Halliburton and Turner played together. Their pace was tough for other teams to compete with as they had depth to keep running all game. Expect Indiana to push for a playoff spot this year and in doing so fly past their season win total.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS UNDER 28.5 WINS -110 DK

I’ve been waiting for the Blazers to tear it down. They have been stuck in neutral for years and could never build a championship roster around Lillard. Watching Dame Time fade away in his latter years and play meaningless games was painful. But they finally made the move and have now made it clear, the rebuild mode starts now.

With that, they have a totally new roster starting with their prized draft pick Scoot Henderson. They’ve also added C De’Andre Ayton and G Malcolm Brogdon to the fold. Combine that with guards Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons and we have a team of shoot first minded players. So while there’s talent, it’s going to take time for the Blazers to decide how it fits and gels best. And being that this is a rebuild and transition year, I expect them to take their lumps while doing so.

And the fact of the matter is, the Blazers have the worst roster in the West. In a conference loaded with stars, Portland will struggle to compete night in and night out. 

DETROIT PISTONS OVER 27.5 WINS -110 DK

The Pistons have been slowly building talent in the Motor City, but haven’t been able to see it all on the court at the same time. Injuries to key young players such as Killian Hayes, Cade Cunningham, and Isaiah Stewart has slowed down the organizational growth. So much so, that the Pistons ended up with just 17 wins in 2023, the least in the NBA. But with that comes equity and the Pistons received a top 5 draft pick which they used on athletic wingman Ausar Thompson. With a crowded frontcourt, the Pistons were in need of some depth on the wing.

The other piece of good news for the Pistons is they brought in a winner. After a disappointing end to the season, Phoenix surprisingly fired HC Monty Williams. Over the past three seasons, all he did was win at the highest rate in the NBA, 0.678. But crucial losses in the playoffs don’t sit well for fans in the desert. The Suns loss is the Pistons gain as Williams is a respected leader who can get the best out of any roster.

Lastly, over the past two seasons the team with the worst Clutch Win % had an average turnaround of +7 wins the following year. And you guessed it, Detroit was the worst in the clutch last year posting a 29.5% win rate. Add in a healthy Cunningham, and that number should skyrocket. Getting 11 extra wins will be a tough chore. But with a future NBA All-Star back in the lineup, and a top 10 coach in the league manning the team, the Pistons have a very good chance to surprise people this year.

We’ve touched on several NBA awards, including Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player and Most Improved Player. But today, we’re going to look at Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) odds and uncover which players have value in the betting market.

To make an informed bet, we need to dive into what type of player as well as what metrics past winners have excelled in. As is with most awards, availability plays a crucial role in DPOY. But there are some other underlying factors that voters use when making their selection. Let’s go into that as well as recent history.

Past DPOY Winners

When you think about defense in the NBA, it often starts with eye-opening blocks and dominating the paint. For that reason, this award is often given to a big-man, meaning a Center or Power Forward. Like we did with the other awards, let’s look at the winners during this century:

• Of the 23 winners since 2000-2001 season, 19 have been either a Center or Power Forward.
• The four winners who weren’t classified as a C or PF were:
  • 2022 – Marcus Smart (PG)
  • 2016 – Kawhi Leonard (SF)
  • 2015 – Kawhi Leonard (SF)
  • 2004 – Metta World Peace (SF)
• Since 2000, there have been five back-to-back winners.
• Of the 23 players that have won the award this century, none have missed the playoffs.

So as you can see, we can already throw out any shooting guard nominated for the award. That’s because there has never been an SG that has won the award of late (and the only one that truly won it was Michael Jordan).

The other interesting data point is that voter fatigue doesn’t become as big of a factor as we’ve seen a total of ten players win this award in back-to-back seasons.

DPOY Important Metrics

We know the rim protectors win this award the most. But what are the metrics that help build their case for DPOY. It starts with blocks, but doesn’t necessarily end there.

BLOCKS – Since the year 2000, the DPOY winner averaged 2.1 blocks per game. However, interesting enough, is that only four DPOY winners led the league in blocks per game. In fact, last year’s award winner Jaren Jackson did lead the league in blocks per game but he was the first to do it and win DPOY since Dwight Howard in 2009.

REBOUNDS – It makes sense that to be good at defense, you should also be good at rebounding the ball. Since 2000, the DPOY winner also led the league in rebounds five times. And of those 23 winners, fourteen averaged over 10 rebounds per game.

DEFENSIVE RATING / DEFENSIVE WIN SHARES – This is the one area that correlates well with DPOY. Defensive Rating is a metric that measures how many points a player allows per 100 possessions. In the past 12 seasons, the winner of this award had a Defensive Rating no higher than 106.6 (Jackson 2023). Of those 12 winners, seven had Defensive Rating below 100.

And looking at Defensive Win Shares (DWS), which is a metric used to estimate a player’s ability to improve its team’s defense, there is even finer correlation to DPOY. Of the last 12 winners, eleven of them were in the top 10 in DWS. And of the 12 recent winners, five led the league in DWS.

GAMES PLAYED – As mentioned earlier, availability is a significant factor in winning this award. Over the past 10 seasons, the winner of this award averaged playing in 70 games. And that’s with a shortened season for COVID in 2020. The lowest amount of games played was by Rudy Gobert when he appeared in 56 games in 2017-18.

So now that we’ve rolled up our stats and other important factors, here’s what I focused on for putting together who to bet on:

• Heavily favor a PF or C. If looking outside these positions, focus on defensive rating.
• Ensure a player is on a team that will compete for the playoffs.
• Look at prior season DWS and Defensive Rating. Players on the cusp of this award usually had a very good season prior to winning DPOY.
• Don’t rule out the potential for repeat winners of the award since it has happened often. Defense is one skill that does translate well year-to-year.

JAREN JACKSON JR +600 DK

The reigning DPOY is at the top of our list this year. There were articles written last season on how the Grizzlies scorers inflated Jackson’s stats at home. And that could be the case. But what was clear was Jackson’s ability to dominate the game defensively. He led the league in blocks with a 3.0 per game average. And he did all that while playing only 28.4 minutes per game. I say only, because Jackson would have played more time if he could keep himself out of foul trouble. The Memphis PF led the league in personal fouls per game at 3.64.

There is also some thought here that the Grizzlies will be more of a defensive minded team this year. Though they lost Dillon Brooks in FA, they were able to replace him with 2021-22 DPOY in Marcus Smart. And with superstar, Ja Morant, scheduled to miss the first 25 games, their pace of play will likely come down. This will all lead to an improved DWS for Jackson. And any uptick in stats from last season will go a long way in validating his candidacy for back-to-back DPOY’s.

Finally, as mentioned earlier, this award has been the one that sees the most frequent multiple winners. Jackson is young, entering his year 25 season, and has room to get even better. Even if that’s simply just fouling less and playing more.

EVAN MOBLEY +650 DK

The Cavs young PF/C finished 4^th in the DPOY last season. He also flashed good defensive metrics finishing 5^th in Defensive Win Shares and a Defensive Rating of 109.0. He’s a long athletic player that can guard both the perimeter and the paint. And he’s only 22 years old which shows there’s more room to grow.

The other factor that is in Mobley’s favor is that he leads the best defensive unit in the league. The Cavaliers led the NBA in Defensive Rating with a team number of 109.9. Cleaveland also allowed the fewest points per game in the league at 106.5.

If the Cavs are able to repeat their defensive success as a team, and Mobley continues to grow in his defensive stopper role, he will be a top choice for DPOY. So much so, that I like his chances better than the favorite. He checks all the boxes as far as my key metrics go; plays PF/C, on a playoff team, and has improved his defensive metrics to the point where he’s rated in the top 10 in all key areas.

ANTHONY DAVIS +1000 DK

Anthony Davis is thought of as a premiere defender but has never won DPOY. He’s had years when he was in the top 10 in DWS and played 70+ games (2016-17). What’s been his biggest crutch has been his availability. He hasn’t played more than 62 games since joining LA in 2019. And he’s only played an average of 44 games per season over the past three years.

What’s in his favor is that as he’s aged, he’s become an even better off ball defender. In 56 games last season he averaged 2.0 blocks per game but his block rate was 59% which was good for 10^th in the league. He also put up a top 10 DWS number, and that’s with the Lakers ending up 12^th in Defensive Rating.

AD is a menace in the paint and teams have to gameplan for him. His block numbers plus his DWS are numbers he needs to keep improving. But ultimately, he needs to play. And by play, I mean he needs to play the most games he’s played in a Lakers uniform. If he’s able to do that, pay close attention to the Brow because these odds are very tempting for a rangy defender like the Davis.

BROOK LOPEZ +1200 DK

The Bucks big man used to be a volume scorer. Then he adapted his game and became more of a perimeter threat. In recent years, he also improved his defense helping Milwaukee climb to the top of team defensive metrics last year. The Bucks improved greatly in 2022-23 raising to 4^th in Defensive Rating. And it didn’t go unnoticed that Lopez was a big factor. He ended 2^nd in the league in blocks per game at 2.5 which was a 200% increase over his previous year’s average of 1.2.

And this year, Lopez looks to be in good position to challenge his career highs. That’s because Damian Lillard has come to town and he’s not the greatest defender. Which means Lopez will have plenty of opportunities to clean up the guards coming through the paint. Lastly, Lopez finished 3^rd in DWS last season and made 1^st Team All NBA Defense. He’s on voters radars but yet has just the 6^th best odds. To me, Lopez provides the best value of any defender this year and is someone I have targeted in the

The NBA season starts in three days, and we have another award that is worth betting on. If you haven’t read my previous articles yet, head over to my MVP Odds and ROY Odds posts.

Over the years, the NBA Most Improved Player has produced good value in the betting market. We’ve seen NBA greats, including future MVPs, win this award. But some players excelled in that one year and were barely to be heard of again. It’s an award that varies and doesn’t focus on one skill set except for availability and playing time. More often than not, the winning player doesn’t dramatically improve but instead is given greater opportunity.

Case in point: Lauri Markkanen won the NBA Most Improved Player Award last year. What was different about his 2022-23 campaign from the one prior? The simple answer was he played for a new team. But embedded in that further were two critical factors: an increase in usage rate and points scored.

Looking back at the last five winners of this award, usage rate increased by an average of 4.9%, and points per game went up by an average of 7.9 ppg. 

So, we need to find a player with a projected increased role in his offense. And the factors that drive that increase are typically:

–                  Playing for a new team

–                  Coming off an injury

–                  Previously played on the bench, projected to start

–                  The current team had a roster overhaul

With this information, let’s dive into who are the best bets to hold up the George Mikan Trophy at season’s end.

MIKAL BRIDGES +1000 DK

The Nets wing is the favorite to win this year’s award, and for good reason. Since coming over to Brooklyn in the trade for Kevin Durant, Mikal Bridges increased his points from 17 ppg on Phoenix to over 26 ppg on the Nets. So he checks the box, and we can anticipate an increase in scoring by a minimum of 6 ppg.

The other piece of good news with Bridges is that he is durable. The former Villanova standout has yet to miss an NBA game. He has a narrow frame but one that is strong and built for the wear and tear of a long NBA season.

Lastly, he fits one of my critical criteria on why his usage and points will increase. While it’s technically not a new team, it is as far as his season-long stats are concerned. Of his 82 games played, only 27 were for the Nets. So, this will be considered his first full season for the Nets. And one in which he will be the focal point of an offense and show why he’s a rising star in this league.

TYRESE MAXEY +1300 DK

The Sixers PG is a dynamic player in the NBA, as witnessed by his volume scoring in games without the Sixers stars. When asked to dominate the ball, Maxey scored a career-high 44 points last season versus Toronto. That game was without Joel Embiid. Later that same season, he put up 37 points against the Suns. That game was sans James Harden. And if you’ve watched any news surrounding the Sixers, you know that one of their stars, James Harden, wants out. When that eventually happens, Maxey will be given the keys to the car, and his stats will ascend upwards and hit all the key metrics we’ve identified.

And that will be the important part to handicap when betting on Maxey. When does Harden get traded? If it’s not before the season, does he pout or play for Philly? Either way, this one is simple. The Sixers want Tyrese Maxey to be the Robin to Joel Embiid. These odds will indeed shrink once Harden is traded. Grab this healthy number now and watch Maxey flourish into a perennial All-Star while challenging for the Most Improved Player of the Year this season.

CADE CUNNINGHAM +1500 DK

Motor Cade suffered a left tibia fracture after only 12 games of action and was forced to sit out the rest of the season. He also missed time in his rookie season and has now played just 76 games in two years. But that could bode well in his campaign to win Most Improved Player. And here’s the case for why I’m willing to back Cunningham.

In his first two seasons, his highest PER is 14.0. The lowest PER of any winner of this award in the past five years is 18.7. So, to win this award, he would need a 30% increase and set a career-high PER, which is what all the recent winners have done.

Additionally, his highest points per game to date is 19.9. To be considered for this prestigious award, he’ll need to get to at least 25 ppg which would get us the necessary increase that matches previous winners.

But the other main reason is that Cunningham will consume the highest usage rate on this team. He has an average usage rate of 30% over two seasons. If he continues at that rate, his points and PER should skyrocket. It’s all about health and opportunity here. We can’t have one without the other, but if he plays 70+ games, he’ll have the numbers to put him in the top three of this award.

TYUS JONES +2200 DK

This is all about opportunity. Tyus Jones was moved out of Memphis this offseason and found a new home in our Nation’s Capital. Over the past two seasons, he played the backup PG role for the Grizzlies. But Jones was great when called upon to start games for an oft-injured Ja Morant. He put up 17 ppg, 8 apg, and 4 rpg in those infrequent situations. It’s a healthy stat line that could even be expanded in a starting role in Washington.

The other factors that translate from his bench role to his new expanded opportunity this season is that he led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio by a wide margin. And he’s posted a 0.524 effective FG% over the past two seasons, which trailed only the top PG’s such as Steph Curry, Tyrese Halliburton, and Shai Gilgeous Alexander.

But most importantly, as we started this section, this is all about opportunities. Tyus Jones will set career highs in minutes, usage, and points. This is similar to what we saw last year with Lauri Markkanen. Jones is an established player in this league, but with no stars on the Wizards, he will be relied upon to be ball-dominant, and with that, he’ll put up numbers that are exponentially higher than what he did as a role player on a better team which will put his name in contention for Most Improved Player.

The NBA season is less than a week away, and we have another Futures Bets article to share. Last week, I laid out the case for Rookie of the Year. While that will be very top-heavy, there is also value in several long shots. The MVP Race has a similar construct; we have four candidates bunched tightly at the top and a middle pack with some real value.

For NBA MVP betting, this is one of my favorite in-season bets and preseason bets. For the preseason side, out of the past 10 MVP winners, only 2 were the favorite before the season started (Westbrook 2016, Giannis 2020). But one other note to consider: of the past ten winners, only one had greater odds than +2000 (Jokic 2021).

For in-season betting, I witnessed Embiid get off to a slow start last year and got 20-1 odds on his MVP probability. Jayson Tatum and Luca Doncic started hot and had the lowest odds after the season’s first month. They ended up fading, and we saw familiar faces, such as Jokic, Giannis, and Embiid, battling for the MVP award for the 3rd straight season. So my recommendation for in-season betting is to keep an eye on the top 5-8 preseason odds and then watch the dip and buy low on a candidate with a top team but off to a bad start.

For 2023-24, things will be different this year. For one, Embiid may not have the services of a point guard who led the league in assists. Secondly, Giannis has a high-volume scorer paired with him, Damian Lillard, which will undoubtedly affect his scoring. And then there’s Jokic, who is now the hunted and will play with a different focal point. He also played basketball deep into the summer for the first time in his career, which will take some toll on his body and potentially his early season performance. And remember, Embiid and Giannis have new coaches this season, which could change their volume. While the three greats mentioned above are still in the running and fantastic choices for the NBA’s premier award, there also could be voter fatigue settling in and people looking for a new player to back.

Before we get into my favorite bets for MVP, here are two critical factors I prioritize. The first is factoring in the All-NBA Teams. Since 2000, only two players weren’t named to an All-NBA Team the year before they won NBA MVP. They were:

• 2004-05: Steve Nash

• 2010-11: Derek Rose

And those two above had special cases where we can explain the anomaly. First, Steve Nash’s first season under Mike D’Antonio in Phoenix was in the 2004-05 season coming over as a free agent from Dallas. His stats increased in the fast-paced Suns offense and led Phoenix to the best record in the NBA.

As for Derek Rose, the Bulls fired HC Vinnie Del Negro after the 2009-2010 season and brought in Tom Thibodeau. In 2010-11, the Bulls surprised everyone by leading the league in wins with 62. Remember, this was the first season of the Super Team in Miami. Lebron was coming off two straight MVPs, and there was voter fatigue and resentment in how the Heat came together as a team. This showed in the results as James received just four 1st place votes for MVP. Rose was also the youngest player, at age 22, to ever win the award.

Looking even deeper, of the twenty-three award winners this century, only six weren’t on the All-NBA 1st Team the year before winning the award. Including the two above, the others are:

• 2013-14: Steph Curry (All-NBA 2nd Team)

• 2017-18: Giannis Antetokounmpo (All-NBA 2nd Team)

• 2019-20: Nikola Jokic (All-NBA 2nd Team)

• 2021-22: Joel Embiid (All NBA 2nd Team)

So, case in point, outside a situation like Nash or Rose, twenty-one of the twenty-three most recent MVP’s have come from the All-NBA 1st or 2nd team the season before. That narrows our list of candidates down to 10.

The other thing to consider is scoring. Again, looking back to 2000, we’ve had twenty-three winners of the award, and only four have scored under 24 points per game in a season (83% averaged over 24 ppg). Those players were:

• 2014-15: Steph Curry (23.8 ppg)

• 2005-06: Steve Nash (18.8 ppg)

• 2004-05: Steve Nash (15.5 ppg)

• 2002-03: Tim Duncan (23.3 ppg)

But the one thing these players all had in common was winning. Their teams averaged 61 wins per season, and none finished worse than 2nd in their conference (3 of 4 had the best record in the NBA).

Scoring and All-NBA are the two most important metrics to project this season’s award winner. And if they aren’t scoring, we need to find a player on a team capable of winning 60+ games. 

Here are the players I am backing to win the NBA MVP.

LUKA DONCIC +600 DK

Let’s face it: Luka wore down last season, which looked primarily because of his conditioning. It was a criminal act for the Mavs to miss the playoffs with the roster they had. But it may also be for the best in 2023-24 because they endured less wear and tear and have more tread on their tires heading into this season.

Luka is now entering his 6th season in the NBA and has been trending upward each year. While he has yet to play more than 72 games in a season, rumors are that he’s in great shape. And realistically, if the Mavs didn’t fade last season, Doncic would have challenged for league MVP as he ended 2nd in scoring at 32.4 ppg. That mark alone was the 18th best in NBA history. So, he checks the box when it comes to scoring. And for my other essential factor, Luka made the All-NBA 1st team a season ago.

Doncic also has an entire offseason to team with Kyrie Irving and figure out how to coexist. This is important as Kyrie has played side-by-side with past MVPs such as Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and James Harden.

Let’s remember Dallas made the Western Conference finals just two seasons ago. Enough talent is in place for them to be one of the top dogs out West again. The team will need to put up wins for Luka to win MVP. And that will happen as they’ve constructed a tougher roster around two ball-dominant players. Dallas will challenge Memphis for the top team in the Southwest Division and be a factor out West.

Doncic is a candidate to put up a triple-double any night and will once again challenge for a scoring title. The key to this bet will be health and team success.

JAYSON TATUM +800 DK

Each year, I become increasingly impressed with Jayson Tatum’s game. He’s a gym rat who works as hard as anyone else to craft his game and develop his conditioning. If it wasn’t for a shooting slump midseason and ultimately Boston dropping to the 2nd seed in the east, we may be talking about Tatum hoisting the Michael Jordan Trophy. After all, he put up the best season of his career in 2022-23 by posting career highs in points (30.1 PPG), rebounds (8.8 RPG) and assists (4.6 APG). And because of that, he was named to the All-NBA 1st team last year. Check and Check.

The biggest issue with Tatum may be his supporting cast. And that’s a compliment to what Boston has done in the offseason as they removed pieces like Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams and replaced them with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. By doing so, the C’s will be less reliant on Tatum and Brown having to outscore other teams.

However, the reality is this: the new additions to Boston’s lineup may make Tatum more efficient. Last year, Tatum finished 14th in PER, far from the top. But it was a step in the right direction as he finished 27th in PER in 2021-22 and 34th in 2020-21. Increasing his True Shooting Percentage (TS%) at a lower usage rate will bode well for him and the team.

Last is this: Tatum won the All-Star Game MVP last year. While that game is a farce, the player who holds up the Kobe Bryant Trophy is typically a challenger for NBA MVP. Prior to Tatum winning, six of the last eight All-Star MVPs also had at least one NBA MVP sitting on their mantle. The point is that Tatum is a star in this league and plays on one of the best teams in the NBA. Those two alone make these odds worth gambling on.

STEPH CURRY +1500 DK

Greg Maddox and Tom Glavine once said, “Chicks Dig The Long Ball”. It was a hilarious commercial and one you must check out on YouTube in case you’ve never seen it. Basketball’s version of the long ball is the three-pointer. And not only do chicks dig three-pointers, but so do MVP voters. In both of Steph Curry’s MVP seasons (2014-15 & 2015-16), he set a new record for three-pointers made in a season. His teams also won an average of 67 wins in those two seasons. So winning and historical shooting numbers propelled Curry to MVP status.

The issue with Curry is health, as he has played at most 69 games in the last six seasons. Age is also a factor, as no one over 28 years-old has won this award since Steve Nash in 2005-06. Last season, Curry played just 56 games, which was the third lowest in his thirteen-year career. However, his stats were still competitive with his peak seasons, as he made 4.9 three-pointers per game compared to 5.1 three-pointers during his MVP seasons. So the skillset is still there, and the volume will be as Golden State will still rely heavily on his offensive weaponry.

Then there’s the fact that Golden State is ready for a clean slate. Last season was tarnished early on when Draymond Green and Jordan Poole got into a fight in practice. The team could never fully bond, which showed as Poole had a forgettable season. But the Warriors moved quickly in the offseason and shipped the disgruntled guard to Washington and brought in veteran Chris Paul to help guide this team back on track. The Warriors are well-suited to make another run at the top and will have motivation from losing to the Lakers.

If we get prime Warriors, winning 55+ games, and a healthy Curry, then a third MVP will be well in reach for the game’s best shooter of all time. And he checks also checks my two most important boxes as he’s coming off a season where he scored 29.4 ppg and made All-NBA 2nd team.

SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER +1600 DK

If you’re reading this article, you are well aware of how good Gilgeous-Alexander is. His ascendence in the small market of OKC is genuinely remarkable. So much so that OKC made the playoffs last season. Yes, it was the play-in game, but that was still a surprise as they leapfrogged the Mavericks and Jazz, who made the playoffs the previous year. The Thunder PG was able to do that with one of the youngest teams in the league, as their average age was 22.8 years old.

SGA’s scoring output was even more impressive as he put up 31.4 ppg, which was 4th best in the NBA, trailing only Embiid, Doncic, and Lillard. Because of the team’s performance and his individual stats, Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-NBA 1st team. So, once again, we’ve found that combination we’re looking for with All-NBA honors and scoring prowess.

This year could even be another step toward the top of the Western Conference for OKC. They welcome the #2 pick from the 2022 NBA Draft back to their team in Chet Holmgren. The former Gonzaga standout missed his rookie season due to injury. I don’t think adding Chet will slow SGA’s usage and should only increase some of his other stats, such as assists per game and three-point shooting.

The Thunder have a star on their hands. And while it may take voters to change their perceptions to vote for Alexander, he’ll put up numbers that will challenge the top dogs in the league. And with that and another All-NBA selection on the horizon, this price is too good to pass up.

The NBA season is fast approaching, and it’s one of the more anticipated ones in recent years. Several big trades highlighted the offseason, including the recent deal that sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks. But there’s also a shiny new rookie class ready to debut. A draft class that has whispers of being the best since 2003. That epic night of rookie selections brought us the following stars and long-term vets:

• 1^st Pick: Lebron James (High School)
• 3^rd Pick: Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse)
• 4^th Pick: Chris Bosh (Georgia Tech)
• 5^th Pick: Dwayne Wade (Marquette)
• 6^th Pick: Chris Kaman (CMU)
• 18^th Pick: David West (Xavier)
• 47^th Pick: Mo Williams (Alabama)
• 51^st Pick: Kyle Korver (Creighton)

Of course, other players, such as Kirk Hinrich, Josh Howard, and Zaza Pachulia, provided value. But the top of the list is where teams hit home runs (except for Detroit, who picked Darko). That’s where this 2023 NBA Draft Class strengths lie, having the ultimate star power and a unicorn, like Lebron in 2003, in Victor Wembanyama. Following him are players with All-Pro potential, such as Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson (like Melo and Wade). Beyond that, there are All-Star caliber players up and down the first two rounds who could turn into stars if allowed to grow.

There have been other outstanding drafts since 2003, like 2009 with Curry and Harden and 2011 with Kyrie, Kawhi, Klay, and Jimmy. But the 2003 draft was special and best mirrors the structure and potential for star power in the 2023 NBA Draft Class. 

This brings us to today’s article featuring the NBA FUTURES BETTING guide for Rookie of the Year. While it looks like a shoo-in with the odds heavily favoring one player, we’ll give you the bets we most like to hold up the hardware at the end of this season.

ROOKIE OF YEAR HISTORY AND STATS

Before all that, I wanted to give you a glimpse into the recent history of the award. Since 2000, we’ve had twenty-three No. 1 picks, yet only six have turned that into Rookie of the Year. Most notably, the six that did receive the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy following their rookie seasons were Lebron James, Derek Rose, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Paolo Banchero.

As shown, some candidates became potential Hall-Of-Famers but didn’t win ROY, such as Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. The primary reason that those two ended up as bridesmaids was due to their scoring. Each player averaged less than 13.5 ppg and got outclassed by other players with more volume. That made me consider how scoring impacted ROY voting, and I was able to find the following data:

• Since 2000, 15 of the 23 rookie leading scorers won NBA ROY (65%)
• Since 2000, five of the eight rookies that averaged over 20 ppg won NBA ROY (63%)
• Since 2019, three of the five rookie leading scorers won NBA ROY (60%)
• Since 2010, 10 of the 14 rookie leading scorers won NBA ROY (71%)
• Since 2000, only three NBA ROY’s have averaged less than 15 ppg (87%)

As you can see, even in an advanced metrics day and age, being able to score is a primary factor in determining rookie of the year.

But I also wanted to look at two other metrics impacting ROY voting: USAGE RATE and TEAM WINS. These two go hand-in-hand since good players on bad teams will have an accelerated or increased usage rate. So, starting with Usage Rate, I was able to come up with this information:

• Since 2000, only 3 of the 23 ROY winners had a usage rate under 20%. And all 3 of those players were on teams that made the playoffs.
• Since 2000, only two players who won ROY and made the playoffs had usage rates over 20%: Derek Rose and Ben Simmons. Note Ben Simmons’s Rookie Year was Joel Embiid’s first season playing over 30 games.

From a Team Wins standpoint, having a successful team usually means lower usage. It also involves the player needing more opportunities to put up numbers that compare to his counterparts. Speaking directly, here are some facts about the team win totals of the recent winners of the award:

• Since 2000, the team the ROY played for had an average wins ranking of 22^nd.  The average win total for all 23 teams was 32.
• Since 2010, 10 of the 14 teams the ROY played for ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in team wins.
• Since 2000, there have been 10 ROYs that had usage rates over 25%. None of those players won more than 35 games. And the average record of those 10 ROYs was 28-54.

So now that we’ve collected specific data and built some areas to attack, we can whittle down who will get the proper usage and put up enough points to be considered for ROY. The primary data sets I used were:

• Don’t automatically assume the #1 pick will get ROY.
• Look for players that are projected to score more than 15 ppg.
• Look at the odds for the highest-scoring rookies.
• Do not take anyone from a projected playoff team unless there is a rare situation (i.e., Embiid playing an entire season in Simmon’s rookie year, Malcolm Brogdon’s weak class due to Simmon’s injury, etc).
• Consider teams with bad defenses that will play at a higher pace and, therefore, have higher usage rates.

Now that we have our data and identified key factors, I bring you my top bets for 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year.

SCOOT HENDERSON +250 DK

The #2 pick in the draft is my favorite bet to win NBA Rookie of the Year this season. This is a classic situation of a ball-dominant player with a projected high usage rate on one of the worst NBA teams. I ran to the window when these odds initially opened at +450. And now that the Damian Lillard trade is complete, it has paved the way for Henderson to be one of the primary ballhandlers and scorers on the Blazers team.

Speaking of the Lillard trade, the return was big men (Ayton and Robert Williams) and draft picks. This preserved the current backcourt featuring Henderson, Sharpe, and Simons. Looking at recent situations similar to Portland is Memphis from 2019-2020 when Ja Morant won ROY. That season, Memphis traded away PG Mike Conley in the preseason to pave the way for Ja. Even more interesting was roster construction where Morant had big men Jae Crowder, Jaren Jackson Jr, Jonas Valancuinas, and Brandon Clarke. That allowed Morant to share the backcourt with Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones, two up-and-coming players similar to Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons in Portland. That propelled Morant to hit our key usage rate metric of 25.9% (>25%).

The other factor to consider is the Blazers have the 2nd lowest win total on the board at 28.5. So, barring any miracles, Scoot will play for one of the bottom teams in the league. And that will increase his odds of putting up minutes and stats.
Finally, the Blazers ended last season with the 3rd worst defensive rating, trailing only Houston and San Antonio. Adding De’Andre Ayton and subtracting Jusuf Nurkic will help keep that defensive rating in this range. I expect the Blazers to again be a poor defensive team thus upping their pace.

Scoot Henderson is the real deal and feels disrespected by not being picked number one. He will have every opportunity to use that as motivation while Portland tries to reshape a long overdue roster needing a facelift.

CHET HOLMGREN +300 DK

Do not sleep on Chet Holmgren. Yes, that Chet Holmgren who was drafted in 2022 with the 2nd overall pick. He has rookie eligibility in 2023-24 due to missing the entire season last year with a leg injury. The Thunder played him cautiously this preseason. But we could see flashes of the promise he has packaged inside the 7’1″ frame of his. Chet averaged 20.5 ppg and 9.5 rebounds per game in the Vegas summer league. He excelled in pick-and-roll action, and that was without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander running the point. Imagine what it will look like with the All-NBA guard controlling the action.

The issue with Holmgren will be his usage rate as the Thunder have a playoff team with several players that will be ball dominant such as SGA (32.5% usage) and Josh Giddey (24.7% usage). However, of the six ROYs since 2000 that have made the playoffs, their average usage rate has been 20.2%. And looking at the remaining Thunder usage rates last season, there is plenty of reason to believe Chet can average over 20% usage which puts him in good territory for winning teams.

The other factor to consider is this: in the last 15 years, two players have won Rookie of the Year a full season after they were drafted due to injury in their rookie seasons: Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin. There is something to players sitting out an entire season and being able to mature with their teammates that gives them a leg-up on their competition the following season.

Before Wemby there was Chet. Two unicorns that have a unique skill set for their size. However, Chet is in the shadows of Wembanyama, which may make things even easier for him to thrive in OKC. Lastly, Holmgren has that dog in him. He doesn’t lack confidence and is willing to let you know about it. That always helps when trying to build your brand and, more importantly, your candidacy for ROY.

CAM WHITMORE +2000 DK

Cam Whitmore was a big story on NBA Draft Night as he fell out of the lottery and dropped all the way to Pick #20 and the Houston Rockets. Once considered a can’t miss prospect that would be drafted in the top 10, Whitmore’s stock plummeted due to poor interviews and pre-draft workouts. So he used that as fuel to motivate himself to prove teams wrong that passed on him on Draft Night. And with that, he turned the Summer League into his playground as he was named MVP and took the Rockets to the finals.

The talent is unquestionable, and he’s in a good situation in Houston, where there is a solid mix of young talent and veteran presence. The biggest issue with Whitmore will be playing time and usage. Houston’s backcourt is crowded with Jalen Green, Fred Van Vleet, and Dillon Brooks. And on the wings, he’ll have to compete with Jabari Smith Jr, Tari Eason, and Jae’Sean Tate.

But I profile this similar to Malcolm Brogdon’s situation in Milwaukee in 2016-17. He wound up with the lowest usage rate of anyone who has won the award this century, with an 18.5% mark. But his shooting percentage, PER, and well-rounded stats gave voters enough information to vote him as ROY.

This is absolutely an uphill battle for Whitmore. But we’ve seen prior Summer League MVPs excel and win ROY, including Damian Lillard and Blake Griffin. At 20-1 odds, it’s worth a small play as Whitmore has the talent, and if things break right, he could have the opportunities under new HC Ime Udoka.

KEYONTE GEORGE +3000 DK

Of all the rookies that opened people’s eyes in the Summer League, Keyonte George caught my attention the most. He was smooth with the ball and unfazed under pressure. He also displayed a beautiful jumper. And more importantly, he flashed elite athleticism. Unfortunately, his campaign ran short after a scare where he twisted his knee. Utah wisely shut him down, but they already had enough film to know they have a gem in George.

The case for George is simple. He is playing on a team that is not projected to make the playoffs. The Utah Jazz have the 7^th lowest win total in Vegas with an over/under of 35.5 wins. He will have every opportunity to break into the rotation in the Jazz backcourt with only Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson sitting ahead of him on the depth chart.

Utah also had a poor defensive team in 2023-24, ranking 24^th in defensive rating, and didn’t do much to improve that in the offseason. The Jazz also played at a good pace, ranking 11^th in the pace of play in the NBA last season. These are significant factors that will drive up opportunities for the rookie.

While this is another long shot, I saw enough from the 16^th pick in the draft to know he can be special. The Jazz rookie was recently quoted as saying “I want to win Rookie of the Year”. Those who set high expectations will often perform to them. Give me a player with the confidence and the skillset that George has and I’ll take 30-1 odds all day.

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA +100 DK

I’ll end with NBA’s most hyped rookie since Lebron James. The Frenchman has one of the most unique set of skills seen on a basketball court. He can dribble like a PG, shoot like a SG, but defend and own the paint like a Center. He resembles Kevin Durant, but is taller and may have even deeper range.

As much as I can’t wait to see Wembanyama play, I will not be betting him for ROY at these short odds. Head Coach Greg Popovich knows it’s not about awards but instead about developing the generational talent he has. Pop is the biggest wild card in this whole adventure and I’m not willing to back an HC who had only one player average over 30 minutes per game last season. Will Wemby be special? I have no doubt. Will I let even money sit for 7 months? Nope, not even with the upside bottled in that 7’4″ package.