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NBA dfs

8.11 NBA DFS Look Ahead Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

8.11 NBA DFS Look Ahead Podcast

On the 8.11 NBA DFS Look Ahead, Ghost and Michael check out the 8.7 NBA slate and give their favorite plays for the night! We look at all the games, the over unders, and where to find value at each position for this packed slate!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, August 11

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, August 11

Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKingswith big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

In case you guys didn’t get the memo yesterday, I have to ask a favor – please don’t play cash these next couple days. Seeding is basically done with and almost every team is just trying to be healthy for the real playoffs.

There’s precious few games that aren’t at risk right now. Look at the Jazz yesterday. Donovan Mitchell so we target Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson…to see them all sit out the second half. NBA DFS is volatile and not for the risk-adverse right now.

I’m writing this at 10:30 PM on Monday night and here’s what I’m looking at as far as who’s out currently –

James Harden (really out)

Luka Doncic (likely playing)

Kristaps Porzingis (likely playing)

Giannis Antetokounmpo (50/50 I’d guess)

Joel Embiid (really out)

Ben Simmons (really out)

Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday (really out)

De’Aaron Fox (really out)

Caris LeVert (really out)

That’s eight big time names for fantasy that we already know won’t play. It also doesn’t count stars that might still sit out. The Bucks are on a back to back and even against the Wizards, they are scary. Four teams need to play hard on this slate – San Antonio, Phoenix, Memphis and Portland. Four out of 14 isn’t a real great ratio so I think today is less about a full game stack but sticking with a core group from those teams with one notable exception.

Provided Doncic plays, I love the idea of playing him and Damian Lillard. We know Harden is out so Russell Westbrook is going to be crazy popular. Harden came in at roughly 75% ownership even in GPP’s on Sunday’s slate. Westbrook might approach 60%. This is a quintessential NBA DFS: Picks and Pivots approach.

If that’s the case, I’d much rather come up $500 and play Dame as he’s pulling the Blazers into the postseason. The Rockets almost never cut their starters short, but reality is they have little motivation to play hard. If Westbrook or Harden get hurt, they’re done. Dame is going to play 40 minutes and even if Doncic plays 28-30, he’s a triple double threat.

I’d love to game stack that contest with Kristaps Porzingis and Jusuf Nurkic but cost is prohibitive. That pair with Luka and Dame would leave you with $3,050 per player so let’s forge a different path. My next thought is can we have a three man core of Luka, Dame and Devin Booker and that leaves us with $4,120 per player. It’s a tight budget but we might have routes to make it work.

We can look towards the Bucks and their value to make some of these studs work. They might not fit the prototype of teams that need to play, but that’s why you target cheap pieces like Pat Connaughton, Kyle Korver and maybe even Eric Bledsoe. The latter played 30 minutes yesterday so we need to see if he’ll even play but against the Wizards, these cheap pieces could be excellent value.

The other team that has little to play for but I’m using value players is the Rockets. The two that catch my eye the most are Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore. The latter has been hitting value with ease without Westbrook and the former just showed off his ceiling with a 60 DK point game.

Sticking with the teams that need the W, the Spurs could have a very interesting piece in Drew Eubanks. He has three games over 20 DK in the bubble and has a 1.13 DKPM in that period. He’s not going to be a minutes heavy player but we know Houston has a weak interior. It’s a risk but there’s a potential double double here for under $4,000 and the Rockets gave up the 10th-most rebounding chances in the league. Other sources of value could include Lonnie Walker and Dejounte Murray (not totally a value but affordable) if Derrick White misses this game.

The Suns offer us some help on the salary front as well. Cameron Johnson, Cameron Payne and Jevon Carter all put up over 30 DK yesterday and have been playing well in the bubble. Johnson in particular has been rebounding well and has a better chance with Embiid out for Philly.

I’m not likely to use much of Memphis is what is a bad matchup on paper and their salaries, but the one team that provides value because of who’s not available is Brooklyn. Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris and Garrett Temple are all out for the Nets. Given the salary, Timothy Luwawu-Cabarrot is my favorite option here as he should shoot between 10-15 times and possibly more with now Temple. Also you can mix in Rodonis Kurucs and Chris Chiozza. Someone has to score for them even against the slow-paced Magic.

Both the Pelicans and Kings could have some pieces as well, but I’d want starting lineups before feeling comfortable. Considering that game starts at 9pm, I wouldn’t bank on it. Players like JJ Redick, Josh Hart, Nico Melli and Cory Joseph could all be viable but are also quite risky.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up

These are the kind of slates where you play 3-5 lineups and set a core group that you want to be over the field on. For instance, If I play five tomorrow Lillard will be in four and Westbrook will be in one. That’s how to be different is to fight the chalk. My main three are going to be Dame, Luka and Booker. Past that, I’ll mix in the value players we discussed to take some different routes. Remember, the later players go at the bottom of the lineups!

Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

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Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 8.11

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Good morning ladies and gentlemen! Did anything interesting happen yesterday? No? Didn’t think so. In all seriousness yesterday was an incredibly frustrating day with the way the Deandre Ayton situation unfolded and I’m sure the last-minute change to his status really screwed some folks up and it just goes to show that even the best-laid plans fail from time to time. The NBA “implemented” a rule this year that lineups are required one hour prior to tip but it is clear that they have ditched this “rule” during the reboot. That makes an already crazy time of the season even more difficult. Good thing is, you have me and the rest of the Win Daily team to help you navigate this chaos so let’s get into today’s cash game NBA breakdown for 8.11 on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Note: The slates are different today so be mindful of that when building your lineups. DraftKings has a seven game slate that starts at 1:00 pm and FanDuel has a five game slate that starts at 4:30 pm.

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.11, Guards:

Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers, 9.8K(DK)/9.9K(FD):

Kind of sucked yesterday not having any “stud” guys that I could confidently hang my hat on yesterday. Everything stayed largely up in the air so cash recommendations stayed in the mid-range for the most part. Luckily for us today Lillard is on the slate and still in the hunt. That means that he will likely play 40 minutes and throw up between 25 and 30 shots against a Mavericks team who has phoned it in. Really can’t ask for more at this point in the season.

Lonzo Ball, Pelicans, 6.4K(DK)/6.7K(FD):

It’s important to keep an eye of his status as closer to tip the Pelicans may just choose to sit all of their starters and call it a season. Jrue Holliday, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram are already confirmed out so he may soon follow. If he does end up playing tonight it may be in an opportunity to showcase him alone to generate trade value but that is a different conversation entirely. The important thing is if he plays he will not be competing for usage against a Kings team who is also eliminated and sitting starters, giving us a chance for a ceiling game. His shot has been ugly, but the opportunity is their for at least this one game to demonstrate his ability as an offensive weapon in the NBA.

Tim Hardaway Jr, Mavericks, 5.6K(DK)/5.8K(FD, Foreward):

I recommended Hardaway yesterday and his price didn’t change nor did his roll today so I feel no need to really steer away today. He can flame out any given day but he is the primary scoring option without Doncic and Porzingis on the floor.

J.J. Barrea, Mavericks, 3.1K(DK)/3.5K(FD):

The other main option for cash contests and I can not for the life of me understand why he did not get at least a mention in my article yesterday. I am making sure to remedy that now. My reason for Dallas plays are pretty straightforward, big names are out and their fill ins are cheap. Vegas is projecting a 220 total with what is basically a pick’em so it should be competitive giving Barrea at least a 25 to 30 minute allotment at over a point per minute average giving us a nice little floor/ceiling combination.

Russell Westbrook, Rockets, DK Only (9.3K)

Almost missed him due to only being in DrafKings main slate. Russ is allways a fantasic play when Harden sits. It rolls back the clock a couple of seasons and we get peak Westbrook. He is clearly a triple-double threat tonight against a soft Spurs team who is still alive in the playoff race and should keep this one competitive.

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.11, Forwards:

Deandre Ayton, Suns, 7.9K(DK)/7.7K(FD, Center):

I know, he screwed us all by missing his coronavirus test basically blowing up our lineups. Today is a new day, holding grudges will drain your bankroll in a heartbeat in DFS so suck it up and be ready to go back today. He is well rested on the second half of a back to back for obvious reasons and the 76’ers appear to be sitting their entire starting roster from the early looks of it giving Ayton every chance to dominate…….again…..Seriously, stop shaking your head and do it.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks, 10,500(DK)/11,000K(FD):

I am putting him in here in the event that he plays. I have no news or insight into this as of 6:30 AM. I just want to make sure that you all know that the Bucks play the Wizards today. Do not make the mistake of fully fading him if he plays today.

Khris Middleton, Bucks, 7.7K(DK)/7.2K(FD, Guard):

If the opposite happens and Khris is in the lineup without Giannis he is an autolock against the Wizards today. I know be did not do well yesterday but remember what I was saying about not holding grudges. He is still a fine play at his price for GPP’s with Giannis in, and he almost has to be in your lineup across the board if he is out. Pretty simple.

Philladelphia and Dallas Forwards:

It impossible to handicap these two situations right now so please hop into discord prior to tipoff and we should have a better handle on where to go here. Dallas is a bit more clear with guys like Maxi Kleber on DK and FD and Tim Hardaway on FD but the 76er’s are much, much more unclear. But there will be clear cut value in both contests today.

Cash Game NBA Breakdown 8.11, Centers:

Derrick Favors, Pelicans, 5.1K(DK)/5.4K(FD)

As I mentionaed above, the vast majority of the Pelicans usage monsters are sitting tonight leaving guys like Derrick Favor clear opportunities to fill up the stat sheet. I know if feels like a lifetime ago but he has had a couple of 50 point performances this season and a slew of them in the 40’s on DK. It’s hard to fathom that we are in the same season but don’t let him slip past you today if he ends up starting.

Brooke Lopez, Bucks, 5.3K(DK)/6.0K(FD)

Pretty much the exact same thing I told you yesterday, if Giannis sits Brook Lopez needs to be in high consideration facing the Wizards today. I know Thomas Bryant has improved things slightly in terms of rebounding but Washington still has a long way to go before I give any pause when playing guys against them.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel & Draftkings Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 8.11. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 8.10

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, we’re already reaching the home stretch of the NBA season so you know what that means. Pure unadulterated chaos. That’s right, we have reached the point where teams are resting their stars in preparation for the playoffs so if you are unable to keep an eye on start/sit news through social media or Win Daily’s discord chat leading up to tipoff I would strongly encourage you to use caution with your lineups. My analysis will only give you a general outline, you will need to be available to pivot with lineup news. With that said here is my Cash Game NBA Breakdown for 8.10 for FanDuel and DraftKings!

Cash Game Breakdown 8.10, Guards:

Tim Hardaway Jr., Mavericks, 5.6K(DK)/4.9K(FD)

You know we have hit the end of the road with the regular season when Tim Hardaway Jr. ends up being the first name in a cash game breakdown yet here we are. Dallas has opted to sit Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith, and quite possibly Seth Curry against the Jazz in tonights matchup leaving the door wide open for Hardaway to pretty much whatever he wants to do tonight. I am always uneasy recommending him but there is no better situation for him to exceed value on his price tag than against a weak Jazz defense in a game with a 229 projected total.

Tyler Herro, Heat, 5.3K(DK)/5.1K(FD):

With Nunn expected to be out tonight against the Pacers and Butler nursing a sore foot I am expecting Herro to carry a large potion of the workload this evening. A total for tonight’s game hasn’t been released as of yet but I’m expecting it to be in the mid 220’s reasonably and Herro should have a hand in that. A little added nugget to this is the potential bad blood between T.J. Warren and Jimmy butler and I would not at all be surprised if things get a bit too heated between them tonight and might lead to an early night for both, just a thought.

Delon Wright, Mavericks, 3.3K(DK)/4.2K(FD)

You will be seeing a lot of Mavericks in my article today, many of whom I typically would not normally recommend and Wright falls firmly in this category. As I stated earlier, there are a ton of guys sitting for a Dallas tonight in what should be a high scoring game. Just keep an eye on the starting roster and play accordingly. Pretty simple.

Mike Conley, Jazz, 6.1K(DK)/6.3(FD)

Keep an eye on Donovan Mitchell’s status before rolling Conley out tonight. Jazz are two nights removed from a double overtime game where Mitchell played 47 minutes and strained his leg. If he sits Conley will be carrying the load against what is essentially the Dallas bench squad.

Cash Game Breakdown 8.10, Forwards:

Deandre Ayton, Suns, 8.0K(DK)/7.7K(FD, Center):

We need to be cautious today, it is not likely guys like Lebron, AD, or Giannis are going to get much if any run tonight making Ayton the top name for forwards (and in the case of FanDuel, centers). The Thunder are down to just Mike Muscala under the rim tonight allowing Ayton every opportunity to feast tonight. No need to get cute.

Maxi Kleber, Mavericks, 4.2K(DK)/4.7K(FD):

Continuing the narrative as stated above, high total, limited roster, exactly what you need in a cash game. Moving along.

Khris Middleton, Bucks, 7.8K(DK)/7.2K(FD, Guard):

I am largely fading the guys all the way at the top tonight unless I here for a fact that they are getting a full work load which judging by the early news doesn’t seem likely. This should be a pretty high scoring affair and if the Bucks opt to limit Giannis’s workload it is typically Middleton that carry’s the offensive workload. Milwaukee has no reason to push the issue tonight with top seeding locked in. As with everything else tonight, keep an eye on the starting roster leading to lock.

Daruis Bazley, Thunder, 3.3K(DK)/3.6K(FD)

With no Nerleans Noel or Steven Adams tonight it is all Mike Muscala and Darius Bazley underneath the basket tonight. Bazley did well last night scoring 37 DK points against the Wizards and the Suns aren’t much better in terms of defensive prowess and at near min price on both sites, he is an easy plug and play.

Cash Game Breakdown 8.10, Centers:

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 9.1K(DK)/8.5K(FD)

Jokic is really the only high priced guy I am recommending tonight. Lakers have nothing to play for at this point and I’m not going to be surprised to see either LeBron or AD sit tonight (possibly both) and the Nuggets still have seeding considerations being just one game behind the Clippers for the two seed. In terms of floor/ceiling stability, Jokic is about as good as you are going to get tonight.

Brooke Lopez, Bucks, 5.3K(DK)/6.0K(FD)

If for some reason you do not want to go all the way up to Jokic, Brook Lopez is the other Center I would be willing to plug into my cash game today. As I stated with Middleton I am basing this on the Bucks either limiting or outright sitting Giannis tonight leaving a ton of usage available between the remaining roster.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel & Draftkings NBA Cash Game Breakdown For 8.10. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10

As of Sunday night, this slate is pretty much a mess. The list of stars that are questionable or out are as long as my arm and it’s making life difficult. Please stay tuned in the Discord and we’ll make adjustments on the fly the best we possibly can and the NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10 is subject to change quickly.

I will still list options as normal, but I may take the day off from cash on this slate. There’s just so many questions and different start times, it might be tough. Also, this is a great time to remind everyone – set up your lineup with the later games in your G, F and Utility spots on DK. Leave yourself flexibility the best you can! Alright, let’s get rolling into this slate!

Thunder vs Suns

Pace – Thunder 21st, Suns 9th

Thunder – Questionable – Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel OUT – Dennis Schroder

The Thunder aren’t my friend right now after they flip-flopped on their lineup about 532 times yesterday. Eventually they landed on Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel sitting out, opening up some value. If that happens again, my favorite value is likely Luguentz Dort. He seems to be the least reliant on scoring, unlike Mike Muscala and Darius Bazley but I think all three are viable if the Thunder have no big men again.

I maintain that Chris Paul is too pricey to land at about 40 DK almost every single game. He only has one game with more than 12 FGA and even with efficiency, he just seems capped right now. Likewise, I almost never pay over $6,000 for Danilo Gallinari. Especially in the restart, he’s had trouble clearing 30 DK and you need close to 40 to pay off his tag. The Suns are bottom 10 in 3 point FG% given up but that’s not enough to tempt me.

I thought Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was really going to pick up the slack with Schroder out but it just hasn’t happened. It seems the Thunder just spread it around and SGA hasn’t scored more than 19 real points outside of one game. He doesn’t do enough other side to make it worth it. You could play a narrative where he and Suns star Devin Booker trade buckets, but that’s flimsy in my mind.

Cash Plays to Consider – IF Noel and Adams are out – Dort, Muscala, Bazley

GPP Plays to Consider – SGA, Paul, Gallo

Suns – None

The pricing makes the Suns a little tricky but if so many studs sit, we might not have a ton of spend up options. Booker leads the charge for the Suns who have been incredible in Orlando. They are undefeated and could still get into the nine spot, forcing a play in with the eight seed. Last game saw Booker score 35 real points and he missed all seven three pointers, so he could have really done some damage. He’s going to bring it again in this one.

The rest of the team is tougher to figure out. Deandre Ayton could really get a great matchup if the Thunder miss Adams, but he has to hit 50 DK at his current price. That’s a bit of a long shot and if Adams plays, the matchup is tough with the Thunder being a top 10 team in paint rebounds and points allowed.

The secondary pieces are a little volatile as well. We had some serious Cameron Johnson love last game but he inexplicably played only 27 minutes after playing at least 36 in every other game. That’s probably a no fly for me at $5,200 but I’d have MME exposure. Ricky Rubio has been muted for fantasy terms with Booker and Ayton doing a lot of the work and needs about 40 DK. No thank you there. Game log watchers might go after Jevon Carter a little bit but I’ll bet he’s not going to shoot like that at all tonight.

Cash Players to Consider – Booker, Ayton if Adams/Noel are out

GPP Players to Consider – Johnson, Cameron Payne

Mavericks vs Jazz

Pace – Mavs 18th, Jazz 22nd

Mavericks – Questionable – Seth Curry OUT – Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith

Well the Mavericks are going to be missing some pretty large pieces for NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10. All eyes are going to be on Tim Hardaway Jr. and I get it. It’s interesting to note that in a 187 minute sample size, THJ only has a 0.89 DKPM on a 27.8% usage. If he’s chalky (likely), you could really make a strong argument for a GPP fade and hope he only goes for about 30 DK or so.

Maxi Kleber is going to be worth a look with a 0.99 DKPM but he does have a tough matchup on the inside. Dallas has some options to throw out there like Trey Burke, Delon Wright and maybe Seth Curry. It’s going to be tougher to figure it out unless we know the starters but Burke remains my favorite but it’s tough to pick since they all get around 18-20 minutes a night.

Two wild cards could be J.J. Barea and the Majestic Boban Marjanovic. If I had any thoughts of Barea actually getting minutes, I would love him at minimum price. I know we got excited about Bojan starting only to see him get six minutes. This matchup is drastically different and they need some size. Really, the only members of the regular rotation that are active are THJ, Kleber, Burke, Wright, maybe Curry and Justin Jackson. I’m hoping for some clarity towards lock.

Cash Players to Consider – THJ, Kleber

GPP Plays to Consider – TBD

Jazz – Questionable – Donovan Mitchell

I really wonder if the Jazz just rest Mitchell even if he can go with Dallas being so short-handed themselves. If Mitchell is out for any reason, the duo of Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson come to the forefront. With Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic still out, the Jazz would need to replace 42 points in their offense. I tend to think Joe Ingles is a bit pricey but would be more inclined to play him with Mitchell out. He doesn’t score a ton but the 24.6% assist rate is nice with those players off the floor.

My favorite target on this side regardless might just be Rudy Gobert. Dallas was good in the paint this year with a top 12 mark in paint boards and points allowed. The loss of Porzingis is going to hurt those marks a whole lot and Gobert isn’t going to find the most resistance in the paint. Even if Boban plays, he’s got size but is not someone to fear defensively. Gobert finished in the top-four in paint touches on the season.

Cash Players to Consider – Pending Mitchell’s status, Gobert

GPP Players to Consider – Royce O’Neal, Ingles

Raptors vs Bucks

Pace – Raptors 12th, Bucks 1st

Raptors – None

If both teams take this one seriously, this is a heavyweight fight and could be a preview of the East Finals. The Raptors come in healthy and my favorites remain in the backcourt with Kyle Lowry and Fred Vanvleet. These teams were in the top three in three point frequency allowed, so both guards are going to chuck shots. Along those same lines, a player like Norman Powell could be a nice game stack option and could fall into 30 DK if his shot works.

Pascal Siakam sort of woke up a bit yesterday, putting up 26 real points. That unfortunately only meant 36 DK but his price is coming down. His 24.9% usage in the bubble cannot continue to give mediocre results. Milwaukee was bottom-eight to PF and they got hammered on the boards for the fifth-most rebounds to that position. It should be noted that Spicy P only went over 37 DK once in four games vs the Bucks this season. Lowry does have a 50 DK game under his belt.

Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol are still splitting, but I wonder if Gasol sits out. It’s just a guess but on a back to back it’s possible. Ibaka would be a great option at this salary in that case. Other than that, I don’t want to chase Ibaka’s outburst from yesterday.

Cash Players to Consider – FVV, Lowry

GPP Players to Consider – Siakam, Powell, Ibaka if Gasol is out

Bucks – Questionable – Giannis Antetokounmpo

It appears that any issue for Giannis Antetokounmpo is minor but you can’t possibly convince me the Bucks will push him here. If he’s healthy, I’m always interested. It’s Giannis. Any injury makes me very leery at this point in the season.

I plan on skipping Eric Bledsoe as his minutes haven’t come up quick enough and I think Lowry should relatively cancel him out. That really leaves us with Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez as other options. Both players can get hot from behind the arc in a hurry and the Raptors let up a league-leading 44% three point frequency. I believe both prices are really solid and Lopez could go overlooked at center.

IF Giannis sits, I would lock both these players and then think much harder on Bledsoe. Middleton and Bledsoe are basically identical at about a 33% usage rate and 1.43 DKPM. Lopez jumps 5% in usage to 23.3%.

Cash Players to Consider – Giannis, Middleton, Lopez

GPP Players to Consider – Bledsoe

Pacers vs Heat

Pace – Pacers 23rd, Heat 27th

Pacers – Questionable – TJ Warren

I’m going to go out on a limb here in NBA DFS: Games to Target for 8.10 and say TJ Warren suits up, lest he be called every name in the book by other players. In case you forgot, Warren and Heat star Jimmy Butler got INTO it back in January. They trash-talked, Warren got ejected, Butler blew him kisses and Warren flipped him off as he left. Butler also proceeded to call Warren “trash”, “soft” and claim “he’s not in my league”.

Oh and to top it off, Butler posted a picture of the Heat schedule with the next Pacers matchup and circled it. Warren is going to play and he’s red hot but I just can’t stand that price. That’s especially true if he might get ejected.

The play here is Victor Oladipo to my eyes. He’s coming off his high water mark in minutes and shots in Orlando and the price is still under $6,000. The 23.3% usage is only behind Warren and Malcolm Brogdon. I don’t know if there’s any ceiling left for Brogdon at this price and it’s mostly a fade for me. I have no real interest in Myles Turner with Bam Adebayo on the other side.

Cash Players to Consider – Oladipo, Brogdon

GPP Players to Consider – Warren, Aaron Holiday

Heat – Questionable – Goran Dragic OUT – Kendrick Nunn

I’m not bothering to list Butler as questionable because he’s not missing this game. Few players thrive on disrespect like Butler, perceived or otherwise. I don’t love that Butler doesn’t have a three point shot in his game anymore. He shot 24.8% from deep (yikes) and the three is the great equalizer. Still, he wants to prove that Warren isn’t better than him. Taking Kendrick Nunn off the floor bumped his usage all the way up to 29.8% during the season with a 1.29 DKPM. This is a Jimmy Buckets game on paper.

Adebayo’s matchup is juicy because Myles Turner can’t defend that well (blocks don’t always equate to defense) but the price is very high after Butler has missed a couple games. I still really like Tyler Herro at salary, regardless of Goran Dragic (who should play). Herro was at a 0.85 DKPM even with Butler playing so the salary is still fine.

Dragic is just too good of a price to pass up so if I have to choose, I’m going Dragic over Herro. I likely avoid the rest of the players like Andre Iguodala if I believe Butler takes over. We also need to be careful to some extent with Kelly Olynyk. He was down to 22 minutes last game and that makes him much less of a sure thing at $5,100.

Cash Players to Consider – Butler, Herro

GPP Players to Consider – Bam, Dragic

Nuggets vs Lakers

Pace – Nuggets 29th, Lakers 11th

Nuggets – OUT – Will Barton, Gary Harris

I think we’re really only looking at a three man core here from Denver in NBA DFS: Games to Target for 8.10. Players like Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant and Monte Morris are falling by the wayside in the face of the Nuggets power trio right now. I say trio because my word, welcome back Jamal Murray.

I didn’t even consider him at salary in his first game back from a hammy injury but he played almost 40 minutes of basketball, took 25 shots and scored 53.5 DK points. That took two overtime periods to achieve, but still. The Lakers were vulnerable to PG during the year, finishing fifth-worst in DK points given up.

Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic have to be in consideration as well. The respective matchups are not easy. Los Angeles finished ninth vs SF and 1st vs C and PF (depending on how you qualify MPJ). Still these two have a 23.7% usage and 29.6% usage rate in the bubble. Murray certainly wasted no time and in his one game, he took up 30.8% and scored 1.36 DKPM. Nobody else on the team is over 18.2% so this is what I’m talking about with a three man show.

Cash Players to Consider – Murray, Jokic, MPJ

GPP Players to Consider – Grant

Lakers – Questionable – LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Danny Green OUT – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

The Lakers remain a fairly unappealing team for NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10 after the two big names, in all honesty. Kyle Kuzma, Dion Waiters and Alex Caruso just don’t do enough when James and AD are on the floor. I’m certainly not chasing Quinn Cook and his 21 real points from last game (he scored 23 DK…think about that).

So that leaves us with the big two, LeBron and Davis. I won’t lie, AD at under $10,000 simply has to get your attention. The bubble versions of these two players have been a little odd. The usage is slightly down for both and the 1.37 DKPM for LeBron and 1.22 mark for Davis are well below the normal. The prices are interesting and I maintain the Lakers want at least a little momentum heading into the real playoffs.

Cash Players to Consider – Davis, LeBron but I do prefer others in that range

GPP Players to Consider – None

Core 4 – Booker, Hardaway Jr., Dragic, Gobert

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NBA page and projections on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9

Welcome in to the biggest slate we’ve had in the bubble with seven games today! It’s all day hoops for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9 and it should be a great day with a ton of options. The main goal of today’s article is going to be figuring out how we fit James Harden. With Russell Westbrook already listed out, Harden is simply a must so let’s get to the rest of this slate!

Wizards vs Thunder

Pace – Wizards 5th, Thunder 21st

Wizards – Questionable – Shabazz Napier

We don’t have to go too far into NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9 to find a good game. The Wizards have three really solid options today all priced pretty fairly. The trio of Thomas Bryant, Troy Brown Jr. and Ish Smith have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting in Orlando. Bryant has been near unstoppable, recording a double-double in all but the last game. I’m not sure he has to be jacking five and seven three’s a game but he’s already over 40 DK with poor three point shooting. Imagine if he starts hitting those shots.

Smith went bonkers last game and just missed on 50 DK points. He didn’t even play any real extra minutes at just 32 but he still went 18/6/10. The Thunder were a top 10 team to point guards but Smith’s price barely moved and is still a bargain for role and minutes in this spot.

My last main piece has to be Brown Jr. and it’s a similar situation to Smith. He continues to produce in Orlando and his price isn’t moving either. OKC was the second-best team as far as giving up rebounding chances per game so that is a small concern. Brown’s new-found DFS ability has leaned on him rebounding like crazy.

Cash Players to Consider – Bryant, Smith, Brown

GPP Players to Consider – None

Thunder – OUT – Dennis Schroder, Steven Adams

We talked about finding the best way to fit Harden in your lineups and that means Nerlens Noel, c’mon down. The Thunder big man was average in his last game filling in for Adams but he only played 26 minutes in part because of blowout. However, he does have a 1.08 DKPM mark with Adams off the floor this year. Given that Washington was second-worst team to centers all year, Noel is legitimately a plug and play here.

The rest of the team is where things get interesting. Chris Paul has been wildly overpriced based on performance and considering Schroder has been missing, I’m not terribly inclined to go after him here either. Th same can be said mostly for Danilo Gallinari, although he comes in significantly cheaper. About the best thing I can say for Gallo is the Wizards were bottom-five in three point field goal percentage given up.

The fascinating player is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He was flat awful in the last game when he was chalk. Shooting 3-13 crippled him and it was the second straight terrible shooting game. Still, this is the Wizards and he leads the team in usage rate at 26.9%. If the shot is on, he could go for 50 DK. Lastly, you can punt Luguentz Dort if you need salary relief but don’t expect 6-9 shooting. Also, Mike Muscala should be back to muddy minutes further potentially.

Cash Players to Consider – Noel

GPP Players to Consider – SGA, Gallo, Paul, Dort

Grizzlies vs Raptors

Pace – Grizzlies 7th, Raptors 14th

Grizzlies – OUT – Jaren Jackson Jr.

Usually we like Memphis pieces but I’m not sure they’re really needed today. The Raptors have the second-best defensive rating in the league and could really suffocate the young Grizzlies. We’ve been talking the last few slates that Ja Morant is far too pricey for his production so far. The individual matchup is tough as Kyle Lowry, who sits ninth among 30 minute players in defensive rating himself.

It’s difficult to find a great matchup here on paper that we should really like. Jonas Valanciunas is likely the best bet, with his 1.36 DKPM without JJJ on the floor. Had he played full minutes last game, he would have smashed his price tag with ease and could be a quiet option if this one stays close.

I’m not super interested in Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson or Brandon Clarke in this game. Brooks is a shooter and I don’t generally chase shooters against elite defenses. Anderson is a completely boring option with limited upside and Clarke has struggled even without JJJ. Memphis seems like a good fade on a slate this size.

Cash Players to Consider – None

GPP Players to Consider – JoVal, Morant, Anderson

Raptors – Questionable – Serge Ibaka

It looks like Ibaka will play, which likely robs us of the Marc Gasol is a former Grizzles player narrative. Good thing Brian started vacation yesterday and isn’t writing an article about NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9. This likely isn’t the best spot for Gasol anyways if the game goes fast, but with him and Ibaka splitting it’s easy to not play either.

If playing any Toronto player, I think we’re looking to the backcourt duo of Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. They continue to be the most productive Raptors since the restart with basically matching usage rates around 22% and DKPM’s of 1.13 and 1.19 respectively. Memphis was in the bottom 10 against both guard spots so this spot sets up well for both of them.

The mystery for the Raptors is forward Pascal Siakam. He’s leading the team in usage at 24.9% but has only produced a 0.86 DKPM. His raw fantasy points have decreased in every game so far. He’s a great GPP target since game log watchers won’t look hard at him and he’s far too talented to stay quiet for long.

Cash Players to Target – FVV, Lowry

GPP Players to Target – Siakam

Spurs vs Pelicans

Pace – Spurs 15th, Pelicans 3rd

Spurs – None

This is an excellent spot for the Spurs and they are only two games back of the Grizzlies, so desperation is palpable. Having said that, I’m not 100% sure I want to pay the premium for DeMar DeRozan. One of the first metrics I check for DDR is how the opposition defends FGA from 10-18 feet and within five feet. That’s where 73% of his field goal attempts came from. New Orleans is good to average in the mid-range and ninth-best near the rim.

Instead, I think the plays we need to target is Derrick White and Rudy Gay. They have led the team in DKPM through the restart at 1.25 and 1.30 each and both have a higher usage rate than DDR. For White, the minutes have been about as consistent as they get under Pop and I feel comfortable with the price. Gay is a little bit more of a risk and his minutes are more towards the 24 mark. I wouldn’t rely on him in cash.

If Zion Williamson is still limited (or just out, there’s zero incentive for him to play), I’d be fine with Jakob Poeltl in GPP. I don’t think can handle Zion’s athleticism but maybe he doesn’t have to deal with it. The price leaves him as a non-cash option, needing about 33 DK for 6x. The only other Spur I’d consider is Lonnie Walker IV, but talk about Russian roulette with minutes. He can score but it could be a single digit DK game as well.

Cash Players to Consider – White, DDR but I much prefer other options

GPP Players to Consider – Gay, Poeltl, Walker IV

Pelicans – None

Honestly, I’m about done with New Orleans in Orlando including in NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9. They have flopped time and time again. I mean, who can’t get right against the WIZARDS of all teams?? They have been dreadful in real hoops and in fantasy and I’ll bet the Spurs want this game more.

Since I’d be shocked if Zion plays any meaningful minutes, we can talk about the trio of Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. I’m not really going to play them because Jrue is still at a very elevated price tag and honestly, so is Ingram. Ingram saw a price increase because 30 DK at $8,300 just screams to bump up the salary. Ball has basically forgotten to show up, never surpassing 31 DK. They’re not fooling me again.

Cash Players to Consider – None

GPP Players to Consider – Ingram, Holiday

Magic vs Celtics

Pace – Magic 26th, Celtics 17th

Magic – Questionable – Aaron Gordon

Even if Gordon doesn’t play, I think this is a good spot to pull back on players like Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier and James Ennis as ancillary pieces. The Celtics are a very good defensive squad and the prices are just average here. Ennis would be the favorite but I’m likely steering clear period.

The only player that has my attention in GPP would be Nikola Vucevic. He’s yet to really show a ceiling in the restart but Vuc has a 1.34 DKPM with a 25.1% usage rate. Boston was a top 12 team against centers on the season but the offense will run through Vuc, especially if Gordon is out. I’d be a little scared of playing Gordon coming off an injury and the price doesn’t stand out in any way.

Cash Players to Consider – Vuc

GPP Players to Consider – Gordon

Celtics – None

The good news for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9 is the entire Celtics team is under $8,000. The bad news here is the entire Celtics team is healthy and playing in this game, so it’s more difficult to pick a direction to go. I liked Kemba Walker last game and I still like him, as he only played 23 minutes in the Raptors game. Walker still went for just under 30 DK so give him a full complement of minutes and you could still have a bargain. He has a 1.09 DKPM in the bubble, it’s just been a minutes issue.

The duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are up next in usage and DKPM, with Tatum leading the whole team at 1.22 DKPM. The Magic were a bottom 10 team to power forwards so Tatum catches your eye a bit at his salary. He wouldn’t be a core play but MME exposure would work. I tend to think Brown is a hair expensive but you could definitely pair him with Kemba or Tatum if you wanted to do a little two man stack. I have no interest in Gordon Hayward, who has been very uninvolved in this offense.

Cash Players to Consider – Walker

GPP Players to consider – Tatum, Brown

Sixers vs Blazers

Pace – Sixers 19th, Blazers 12th

Sixers – OUT – Ben Simmons

Simmons is done for the foreseeable future and that leaves Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris as the main cogs of this offense. After Embiid was a total disaster last game, I have a feeling nobody is going to be looking at him. We talked about the seasonal data pointing to Embiid producing the same amount as Luka Doncic as far as DKPM goes. That wasn’t evident the last game so it sounds like a great GPP option in NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9.

I’ll continue to mostly fade Harris at his price tag. He put up nearly 50 DK last game and that would be 6x by the skin of his teeth at his salary. Harris just isn’t a core play for me today. A player that does really catch my eye is Alec Burks. With Simmons out, he pushed for nearly 30 minutes and made the most of them, scoring 22 real points. That’s about all he’ll do but at only $4,100 against a bad defensive, he makes sense as a cheap option off the Sixers bench.

Al Horford and Shake Milton are right about at the highest threshold for me. Horford at least is playing 30 minutes and average 1.06 DKPM without Simmons on the floor. Milton has been lower in minutes and I think there’s better guard options on this slate.

Cash Options to Consider – Burks, Horford

GPP Options to Consider – Embiid, Harris, Milton

Blazers – Questionable – Hassan Whiteside

Yesterday was an absolutely brutal loss for the Blazers and to say they need to win is an understatement. Damian Lillard is looking for redemption in multiple ways from yesterday and is still at a price that will keep his ownership deflated. He continues to play 40 minutes a game and is a threat for 65+ in every game.

I’d be possibly a little leery about using Jusuf Nurkic on this back to back. First, will the Blazers really push him to a ton of minutes coming off his leg injury and secondly, he has to deal with Embiid. Nurkic seems like a solid fade for the most part. CJ McCollum is coming off a big game but I believe this is a Lillard game. He’s going to go down swinging so I think McCollum is overpriced.

My favorite of the next group of pieces is Gary Trent Jr. since he continues to play a boatload of minutes. There’s no doubt that he and Carmelo Anthony are scoring dependent so it’s buyer beware to some extent. The Sixers are a good defense but these guys are going to throw up shots and Philly was just average for three point defense, which is why I give the edge to Trent.

Cash Plays to Consider – Lillard, Trent

GPP Plays to Consider – Nurk, Anthony, McCollum

Rockets vs Kings

Pace – Rockets 4th, Kings 20th

Rockets – OUT – Russell Westbrook

With Westbrook already ruled out, it’s that time again to lock in The Beard. You can argue a fade all you want in GPP and I get it, in theory. I’m always going to fall on the side of taking the free square that likely gets you 70 DK or more and figuring out the rest. If you play cash, let me stress this right now – you do not fade Nerlens Noel and Harden. DO. NOT. DO. IT.

The value pieces aside Harden aren’t nearly the lock he is, but we have some potential. My favorite is Ben McLemore, who not only scored 30 DK last game but actually looks solid in a 399 minute sample of what the Rockets are playing with. The 18.5% usage is good for Harden ball offense, as is the 0.85 DKPM. He’s easily the cheapest of Danuel House or Robert Covington on top of that so we have two values under $4,000 that we can play right next to Harden. Jeff Green is also an option but takes up a center spot and isn’t as appealing to me. Oh, on top of all this, Sacramento gives up the fifth-highest three point frequency in the NBA.

Cash Players to Consider – Harden, McLemore

GPP Players to Consider – Covington, House, Green, Rivers

Kings – Questionable – Kent Bazemore OUT – Richaun Holmes

This might seem like a weird place to start, but one of the reasons I don’t want to use a C spot on Jeff Green is the presence of Alex Len. He almost put up a double-double in 16 minutes vs the Nets, and would have if he didn’t shoot 1-6. Len has almost always been efficient from a DKPM standpoint and this year was a 1.17 mark. With Houston being a small ball team and a bottom eight team to centers, Len could really do some damage.

Alright, now to the better known names. De’Aaron Fox put up a bit of a stinker last game but has also scored 39, 28 and 30 real points in Orlando. They’ll need his scoring to keep up with the Rockets 3 point barrage and the price is still on the good side of $8,000. His teammate Bogdan Bogdanovic has also been on a tear the past two games, putting up 27 and 35 real points. Again, they’ll need that and his salary has barely risen.

It’s been tough sledding for Buddy Hield in the bubble. He has only passed 20 minutes once and is strictly GPP, hoping that 3 ball is going in.

Cash Players to Consider – Fox, Bogdanovic

GPP Players to Consider – Len (cash if we know he’s starting), Hield

Nets vs Clippers

Pace – Nets 10th, Clippers 8th

Nets – Doubtful – Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris

Well the Nets have basically decided to mail this one in and that puts is in a bit of a bind for the other side of this game. More on that in a minute. With all those players not active, we do get some more value (that I’m not sure if we really need). Rodions Kurucs, Chriss Chiozza, Garrett Temple and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot are all in the running here. They all have between a 0.80 DKPM (Kurucs) and a 1.36 DKPM (Temple). My issues there is it is such a small sample, it seems difficult to really take anything from it. I much prefer using value in the Rockets/Kings game than here, but won’t fight using any of these four players in GPP.

Cash Players to Consider – None

GPP Players to Consider – Temple, Chiozza, Luwawu-Cabbarrot, Kurucs

Clippers – None

I list the injuries as none for now, but I’d have to bet Paul George is sitting this one out. LA has done that all season, sitting one (Kawhi Leonard) in one game of a back to back and then the other in the second. The issue becomes do we want to spend up on Kawhi when this game shouldn’t be remotely close? Yes, I know. These Nets gave the Bucks fits the other day. Still, that’s the exception in my mind. I lean towards not paying up for Kawhi here at least in cash.

The one player I do like in cash for this team is Ivica Zubac. We attack Brooklyn with centers relentlessly and today isn’t any different. It actually gets even better with no Allen on the other side. Zubac averaged 6.3 touches in the paint and Brooklyn was bottom-eight in boards and points in the paint. The only other player I’d think of here is Marcus Morris Sr. if George sits. There’s still room for 6x albeit he could lose time to a blowout.

Cash Players to Consider – Zubac

GPP Players to Consider – Kawhi, Morris

Core 4 – Harden, Noel, Bogdanovic, McLemore

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA GPP Picks 8/8

billyr011199@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

NBA GPP Picks 8/8

In this article I will be breaking down NBA GPP Picks 8/8. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

Today, we have a five game NBA slate that start early again. We do have several teams still playing for seeding and we have Portland working to get in the playoffs. Attacking the teams such as Portland with motive to play starters heavy minutes is something I will be searching for as other teams such as Milwaukee and L.A Lakers already have the one seeds clinched. This particular slate you’re going to need to pay very close attention to injury news as Lebron, Tj Warren, and Jamal Murray are questionable. Be certain to check out the Discord chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff will be following the injury news and confirming our favorite plays before lock, to help you bring in some money.

NBA GPP Picks 8/8

Lou Williams – ($5,500)

Lou is just getting back in the swing of things since breaking the covid bubble rules. Patrick Beverley is now out, and Lou should be ready to take on more minutes in his third game. Williams draws a great matchup against Portland who he has averaged 36 fantasy points against this season. Portland has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to point guards and has the fourth worst defensive team rating in the NBA this season. Here should be an excellent spot for Williams to exceed his value.

Mike Conley – ($5,900)

Conley has benefited without Bojan Bogdanovic on the floor. In the four games since the restart he has seen at least 30 minutes and over 30 fantasy points in three of those games. He has scored 42 fantasy points against Denver in the only game he played against them this season. Since the return to basketball Denver hasn’t seen Jamal Murray, Will Barton, or Gary Harris and has been hands down the worst team at defending point guards giving up over 55 fantasy points to point guards per game.

Tyler Herro – ($5,100)

Miami will be without Kendrick Nunn and Jimmy Butler, with Goran Dragic also questionable. With Butler and Nunn out, Herro holds a 26.7% usage rate and is averaging 33 fantasy points per 36 minutes. If Dragic is held out Herro will be very chalky and most Miami players that see minutes will be a viable option.

Cameron Johnson – (5,200)

All but officially eliminated the Suns really have nothing to player for at this point, they would have to win out and two other teams would have to lose out. Johnson has been fantastic since the NBA return, he’s scored at least 20 fantasy points in every game and over 37 fantasy points in two of those games. He has also been welcomed with at least 36 minutes of playing time in the last three games. Phoenix should look to give the young man minutes as the season for them winds down.

Jusuf Nurkic – ($8,900)

Just one game out of the eighth seed Portland is battling to make the playoffs, as a result of that their starters are playing massive minutes. Nurkic has come back ready to dominate as he failed to reach the 30 minute mark just once and that was partially due to foul trouble. He has also reached at least 50 fantasy points in three out of his four games. The Clippers have easily struggled the most against centers as they’ve given up the ninth most fantasy points to centers this season.

Bam Adebayo – ($7,400)

I love Adebayo at this price tag, then add that Butler and Nunn are both already ruled out. This is one of the lowest prices we have seen Adebayo at this season and without those two players he is averaging 46.3 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Adebayo was in foul trouble in his prior game against the Bucks and has a better matchup today against Phoenix. Given the price and the absent Heat players Adebayo may be a key part to my GPP lineups.

Nikola Jokic – ($9,200)

As I mentioned in the intro I want to target meaningful games and this game is one of them. Denver and Utah are fighting for home court advantage in the first round and this is a massive game for these two teams. Jokic has been successful against Utah as he is averaging 67 fantasy points against them this season. If Jamal Murray is out again Jokic contains a usage percentage of 30% without Murray, Barton, and Garry Harris on the floor.

That will wrap it up for my article NBA GPP Picks 8/8 five game slate. It should be a fantastic Saturday of basketball with several meaningful games being played. You want exposure to those meaningful games such as Denver vs Utah and Clippers vs Blazers as those players should see all the minutes they can handle. Let’s not forget that we do have several key injury status’ to watch for this slate as well, so make sure you tune into the discord chat rooms to get all the latest news and final takes from our experts. Best of Luck and thanks for reading!

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

8.7 NBA DFS Look Ahead Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

8.7 NBA DFS Look Ahead Podcast

On the 8.7 NBA DFS Look Ahead, Ghost and Michael check out the 8.7 NBA slate and give their favorite plays for the night! We look at all the games, the over unders, and where to find value at each position for this packed slate!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7

We have quite the five game slate in front of us tonight! Memphis, Brooklyn, Washington and New Orleans are all in action and they have all struggled mightily defensively. Additionally, we have Joel Embiid and the Sixers without Ben Simmons. He suffered a knee injury and it’s not yet know how much time he’ll miss. There’s a lot of options in NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7 so let’s jump in!

Thunder vs Grizzlies, O/U of 222.5

Pace – Thunder 21st, Grizzlies 6th

Thunder – OUT – Dennis Schroder, Mike Muscala

The Thunder get a really nice pace up spot here against the Grizzlies and there’s going to be some pieces that garner attention. The main piece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who didn’t wow anyone last time out. However, he also shot just 27% from the floor. It’s more important to look at the 24.4% usage rate when Schroder is off the floor. This is the style of game where he can show off a ceiling and is still under $7,000.

If nothing else, SGA has basically matched the output of Chris Paul and SGA is far cheaper. That leaves CP3 as a great GPP target since folks will shy away from the price. Memphis was right about bottom 10 to point guards on the season. We can also consider Danilo Gallinari as a floor style play. Memphis was bottom 10 in three point field goal frequency and makes per game, which fits Gallo well.

The value here doesn’t really appeal to me all that much. Some might be interested in Lugentz Dort, but he is the definition of a player that’s just getting cardio in. Even without Schroder, he’s at a 0.48 DKPM. You’d be lucky to get 21 DK in the 35 minutes he’s playing. Nobody else is reliable even in a great matchup.

Cash Players to Consider – SGA, Gallo

GPP Players to Consider – CP3, maybe Dortz in MME but not much

Grizzlies – OUT – Jaren Jackson Jr.

Is it weird that I almost like Jonas Valanciunas the best out of all the Grizzlies today? There isn’t something in the matchup that jumps off the page. JoVal is top 15 in paint touches but OKC is in the top five in paint rebounds and points given up. However, with JJJ out, JoVal played the most minutes he has inside the bubble at 34. With Jackson off the floor, JoVal leads the Grizzlies with a 1.35 DKPM and it’s not that close. Ja Morant is at 1.11 and the sample size is nearly 900 minutes.

That’s not to say you can’t play Morant. I’m not exactly likely to since 6x would be 51 DK points and the Thunder were a top eight team to point guards. Paul isn’t the defender he used to be but I’m just not convinced you can get enough value from Morant at his price. When we’re talking about NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7, Morant could be overlooked.

Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke lead the secondary tier of players for the Grizzlies and Clarke is interesting. He certainly didn’t play well last game but when the major chalk fails one slate, the masses tend to flock the other way. Clarke is still a 1.09 DKPM player when Jackson is off so he could smash value here. Brooks is totally reliant on his shot so you have some volatility and he’s not a prime target for me.

The other values for the Grizzlies that might be worth a shot in GPP is Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson. Allen’s minutes have been consistent, which we like. We shouldn’t mistake that for consistency in results though. Allen has shot 14-21 from three so far in the bubble, which is going to come crashing down at some point. Anderson is about the most boring player ever, but could hit 30 DK if he gets another 31 minutes.

Cash Players to Consider – JoVal

GPP Players to Consider – Morant, Clarke, Brooks, Allen, Anderson

Kings vs Nets, O/U of N/A

Pace – Kings 20th, Nets 10th

Kings – None

Sacramento did play yesterday so we’ll need to monitor if anyone is going to be limited but as of now, they’re good to go. I honestly feel so bad for Ghost. He called a big game for Bogdan Bogdanovic in our Discord and he went 1-15 from the field. The next game out Bogdanovic goes for 35 real points and lights it up. He’s still at an awesome price tag and well worth riding to see if he can keep up the hot hand.

I would really love to trust Richaun Holmes and his minutes. He played more than 25 for the first time in the bubble yesterday and the matchup doesn’t get a lot better. Brooklyn has long been terrible against centers and the gave up the fifth-most real points to them this year. If you really wanted to get nuts, Alex Len could be interesting in MME. If he gets 15 minutes, he could clean up with his 1.15 DKPM.

Brooklyn also struggled to contain point guards from scoring this year, finishing as the sixth-worst team in real points to the position. De’Aaron Fox has had one bad game in a blowout to Orlando. In the others, he’s scored 39, 28 and 30 real points and at least 49 DK in those three games. I would much rather play him ahead of Ja Morant.

I would be fairly scared of Buddy Hield right now. He played all of 11 minutes last game, possibly because Bogdanovic was lights out. Still, he is nothing more than an unstable GPP option after seeing that. Brooklyn was about mid-pack in three point frequency, makes and attempts on top of that.

Cash Players to Consider – Fox, Holmes (unless limited)

GPP Players to Consider – Bogdanovic, Hield, Len (could turn into chalk if Holmes is out on a B2B)

Nets – Questionable – Joe Harris,Jarret Allen – OUT – Jamal Crawford

With the exception of Caris LeVert, I’m not sure I want to play a single Net. This also isn’t a prime game for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7 in my mind. With all of the players missing, LeVert has a 24 minute sample size (!!) so that’s not reliable at all. He does rock a 32.9% usage rate but it’s only translated to a 1.04 DKPM. He can 6x at this price or he can give you 30 DK and leave you wanting.

The likes of Tyler Johnson, Garrett Temple and others just don’t look like plays we should really chase. For me, the Nets are mostly a fade unless Brian and Ghost strongly disagree on a facet that I’m missing.

Cash Players to Consider – None

GPP Players to Consider – LeVert

Magic vs Sixers, O/U of N/A

Pace – Magic 26th, Sixers 19th

Magic – Doubtful – Aaron Gordon – OUT – Jonathan Isaac

We’re going to assume that Gordon is indeed out, as listed as doubtful the day before is not promising. If that’s the case, it’s hard to look past Nikola Vucevic getting a bump in usage by 4.4% all the way to 30.6%. He racks up a 1.36 DKPM on top of that. The rub comes in the matchup. The Sixers were the third-best team against centers (his name is Joel Embiid) and that is a concern. It should be noted that Vuc managed 44 and 45 DK this year with Gordon in the lineup. If he can stay out of foul trouble, Vuc could look at 50+.

The next two players are both tough to project because they are streaky shooters. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross can both shoot the lights out or do nothing. They both see a bump in usage rate by about 2% but it would be foolish to rely on them in cash. I’d have share of each but that’s about as far as I’d go.

DJ Augustin and Markelle Fultz are still splitting time at the point guard spot as well. I’d certainly lean Augustin as he’s played a handful more minutes, but neither is a prime target here.

James Ennis is going to be THE punt forward. Perhaps I buried it a bit too far into NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7 but without Gordon Ennis is just simply too cheap and is chalk. He has played 27 and 28 minutes without Isaac and some without Gordon. He also hit 20 DK despite going 4-12 from the field last game.

Cash Players to Consider – Vuc, Ennis

GPP Players to Consider – Fournier, Ross, Augustin, Fultz

Sixers – OUT – Ben Simmons – Questionable – Mike Scott, Glenn Robinson III

We still have the crown jewel game to go but it has to be said that most builds need to start with Joel Embiid today. He’s coming off the highest raw points on the slate last time and he’s without Simmons for the whole game. When Simmons is off the court, Biid has a 37.3% usage and 1.68 DKPM in 580 minutes. For reference, Luka Doncic of the Mavericks has a 36.8% usage and a 1.65 DKPM on the season.

The question then becomes do we want any other Sixer with Simmons out and my main lean is no. Yes, Tobias Harris is at a 25.6% usage and 1.08 DKPM but that’s barely a movement on his normal marks. Paying so much for shooters can easily backfire, ask TJ Warren from yesterday. With the pace not expected to be anything special, he’s mostly a fade.

You could make an argument for any of Shake Milton, Al Horford or Josh Richardson but there’s nothing to be really happy about here. Nobody stands out as getting the ball more and the salaries are nothing too great. If I had to pick, I’m likely to go with Milton. He should handle the ball a bit more by default so he could walk into some extra points.

Cash Players to Consider – Embiid

GPP Players to Consider – Harris, Milton, Horford, Richardson

Wizards vs Pelicans, O/U of N/A

Pace – Wizards 5th, Pelicans 3rd

Wizards – None

This is the best game on paper to stack for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7. Honestly, you can make the case to play Embiid with Ennis with as many pieces as you can fit from here. The most expensive player is Thomas Bryant and man has he been playing well. He’s exceeded 43 DK in three of four games and even managed to put up 47 against Embiid. We need to note the sample but Bryant is at a 1.35 DKPM in the bubble and the Pelicans aren’t a tough matchup.

The next man up is an easy fit in Ish Smith. He’s been under 30 DK the past two games but that’s come on the back of a combined 10-27 shooting. He played 30 minutes against Philly and we should see that again in a warp speed pace game.

Past that, most of the other main pieces of the Wizards are capped at about 30 minutes. The exception is Troy Brown Jr. but he’s come back to Earth after his 50 DK point explosion. He’s a cash option with a safe floor but it’s a touch under 6x so he’s not an attractive option. Rui Hachimura is getting big minutes but it seems like he and Bryant aren’t co-existing as far as fantasy production. He’s had a hard cap, not exceeding 32 DK so far. Even Jerome Robinson doesn’t seem like a good bet to go much past 30 DK.

Cash Players to Consider – Bryant, Smith

GPP Players to Consider – Brown, Robinson, Hachimura

Pelicans – None

The Pelicans have been a pretty massive disappointment in Orlando. They have pretty much zero chance at making the playoffs so I will not be shocked to see Zion Williamson sit today on a back to back. He hasn’t gone past 25 minutes and they have nothing left to play for.

IF that is the case, I want all the Brandon Ingram. It’s the Wizards and Ingram has a 31.2% usage rate and a 1.20 DKPM on the season without him. He’s the primary scorer and I can’t possibly see who defends him. We haven’t seen the ceiling from him but it can happen fast without Zion.

Next up would be the duo of Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball and make no mistake, it’s in that order. Neither player has been very good in the bubble and that helps explain why they’re heading home soon. However, they see a bump with no Zion as well. Holiday is an expensive luxury that only really works in GPP and Lonzo is just never a cash option with his instability.

We usually target centers against Washington but Derrick Favors is the exception past MME. He’s just not that involved and only gets about 25 minutes per game. The last man that has some interest for me is JJ Redick. Washington gives up the fifth-highest field goal percentage from deep and we know Redick can still shoot the three ball.

Cash Players to Consider – Ingram

GPP Players to Consider – Holiday, Ball, Zion if he plays, Redick

Celtics vs Raptors, O/U of 218.5

Pace – Celtics 18th, Raptors 14th

Celtics – None

Boston will be at relatively full strength for this heavyweight tilt and I’m kind of looking at Kemba Walker. He sat out last game but Boston now only has three games left before the real playoffs begin. Walker has seen his minutes ramp up from 19 to 22 to 27. If he gets to 30-32, $6,000 is a bit too cheap. Walker is right next to Jayson Tatum in usage (27.8%) and DKPM (1.16).

Tatum completely burned the field last game as he couldn’t stay out of foul trouble early and the game turned into a major blowout. I’m not sure I’d want to pay nearly $8,000 for him but it’s an interesting game theory. The masses are hurt from last game and if Kemba stinks, Tatum should carry the water for the Celtics.

When everyone is active, I tend to stay away from players like Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart. This game doesn’t set up as anything that will be different. I find them to be just a hair too expensive for the game environment and given our other options this evening.

Cash Players to Consider – Walker (possibly, we’ll check the news)

GPP Players to Consider – Tatum, Brown, Smart, Hayward

Raptors – None

Much like the Celtics, my interest in Toronto is going to be pretty limited. If we’re just going by the bubble games, Fred VanVleet would be the first man in. He’s been ridiculous so far with three straight games over 40 DK. That’s been fueled by a boost in assists and boards, to go along with 36 real points in one game. Just remember that A. These things tend to even out and B. Marcus Smart is a good defender.

On the opposite end of that spectrum, Pascal Siakam has been….not good for fantasy thus far. He sits over $8,000 in salary but has yet to clear 40 DK in any game. I always struggle with Siakam. I love him as a player but that’s not always good enough for DFS, especially a a high salary. Boston was also top 12 against either forward position so it’s not a great matchup for him either.

I also believe that Kyle Lowry is too expensive for this game as well. He needs 50+ to clear value but Boston was the second-best team to point guards on the year. That included being top five in three points and assists given up so it doesn’t make sense to pay this price.

Nobody among the secondary pieces really stand out here among Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka or OG Anunoby. Gasol and Ibaka are still splitting minutes almost down the middle so it’s basically impossible for that spot. Anunoby plays the minutes we like for value guys but he also only averages 0.79 DKPM so there’s not much there.

Cash Players to Consider – None that I love

GPP Players to Consider – FVV, Siakam, Lowry

Core 4 – Embiid, Ennis, Ish Smith, Ingram/Fox pending Zion’s status

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

8.5 NBA DFS Look Ahead Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

8.5 NBA DFS Look Ahead Podcast

On the 8.5 NBA DFS Look Ahead, Ghost and Michael check out the 8.5 NBA slate and give their favorite plays for the night! We look at all the games, the over unders, and where to find value at each position for this packed slate!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!