Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday August 18!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
We’re kicking off this slate with the Houston Rockets vs the Oklahoma City Thunder because Russell Westbrook is out. We all know what that means and James Harden is the chalk. We can go round and round on this. Yes, the theory of fading Harden and going more balance can work. It’s an MME tactic only.
We’re talking a 44.1% usage rate and 1.88 DKPM with Westy off for Harden. In 13 games this year without Westbrook, Harden has scored under 30 real points once. That was the last seeding game and he played 26 minutes, scoring 27 real points. He’s been over 60 DK in 10 of 13, 10 of 12 if we don’t count the last seeding game. As long as this game stays remotely close, he’s locked to 38-40 minutes. It’s legitimate to see a 90 DK game from him if he goes nuts, especially considering he just scored 87 DK two games ago.
Now the challenge is finding the right value to put around him. Just because a player is cheap doesn’t mean said player is really viable. I’m turning directly to his teammate Eric Gordon. He played the last two seeding games and hat 25 shots in 43 minutes. I’m taking that kind of value and his 30% usage rate in a 338 minute sample size this season. If you can get 100 DK between those two players, you’re at 6x for your salary.
If we’re already using two Rockets, we may as well see if we can get a little stack going, right? Dennis Schroeder catches my eye at a very reasonable price for a team leading 27.2% usage rate. He missed time in the bubble but came back to log 26 minutes in the last game. He can fill the bucket in a hurry and he’s got big upside here. There’s not another player here that I feel like we have to jam in and will be looking elsewhere.
Now we need to jump around a bit. When we look at the center position, it’s a bit of a tough cookie. Would I love to play and Anthony Davis or a Bam Adebyao? You bet. Can I swing that with Harden and not a lot of glaring values? Well, that’s a different story. I can’t help but look a Brook Lopez for the Bucks as a good value in this slot. Lopez has shot 43.9% beyond the arc in the bubble and the Magic were bottom-eight in three point FG% during the regular season. It’s not the easiest matchup but the price is worthwhile.
The Miami Heat offer some pieces that we should be looking at as well. Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler are cheap for their potential, as we just saw Buckets destroy this Pacers team for 50 DK on just 13 shots. His blood feud with T.J. Warren is certainly not over and Butler with a chip on his shoulder under $8,000 has my attention.
Dragic at $4,400 is really attractive and he should play near 30 minutes. The 1.03 DKPM on the year should pay off here without much struggle. Kelly Olynyk is still in play and we can hope the minutes decrease in the past couple games were just because they didn’t matter.
The catch with this plan is fading the Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trailblazers game and I’m not sure I want to do that. You have two paths to that game – surround Harden and a stud with cheap shooters or just fade Harden almost altogether. Most of my lineups will have Harden, but the ones that don’t will be centered on Anthony Davis.
Players I Want Exposure to – Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Trent, Jae Crowder. It might be a tighter player pool today and rotate in studs as opposed to the lower salary players.
Update – In talking with Brian this morning, he opened my eyes to some potential other plays I may have overlooked. He’s a pretty sharp dude. To round out lineups, also look at DJ Augustin, Evan Fournier, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Iguodala, Hassan Whiteside (Wonder if Portland tries to counter size with LA)
I’d be lying if I said this isn’t a bit of a difficult slate. As much as I tend to lock in Harden, I also believe the argument is stronger than normal to make a fade and be more balanced. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have more Harden than not. My goal is to build around a Harden, Schroeder, Lopez and Dragic core as of this writing. We’ll always update as we go in Discord, so make sure you hang out with us leading up to lock!
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is built around DraftKings pricing, but is good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites. I’d like to point out that the players I’m recommending are best used together for cash game purposes. These players are also decent considerations for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments when used individually with other contrarian type players.
The NBA playoffs are finally here. We’re looking at an exciting 4 game NBA DFS slate that’s packed with intriguing players. There is some injury news out there to keep an eye on. I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news leading up to tip off, and break down some key players even further.
It’s extremely important to understand that this is a cash game article. My focus is to find 8 players on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate that will get the recommended 300 point total that should be enough to finish in the top 50% of double up, 50/50, or head to head games. The roster building process is different for GPP tournaments where it’s wise to use more expensive players for their scoring upside, and pair them with players that may exceed their value to get you in the top 10% of your contest. Finding high risk/reward players while paying close attention to ownership percentages is important to differentiate your lineup in GPP’s. For cash games, ownership is far less important as we’re simply looking to find a roster that will finish in the top 50% of the contest, and win some cash. Proper bankroll management is important for limiting the number of deposits you make with your own money. Doubling a wager in cash games is an excellent way to counter risks you may take playing GPP contests. It’s always better to take shots at bigger GPP contests with the “house” money you’ve already won playing cash games.
DraftKings gives us a $50,000 salary cap to roster 8 players. This gives us an average of $6,250 per player. Getting to the recommended 300 point plateau, we need all 8 players to average 37.5 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFPTS). While it may sound challenging, keeping this elementary math in the back of your head while building your roster is important. Limit your risk as much as possible and find 8 players that fit this criteria. Lets take a look at this NBA DFS slate.
Rudy Gobert ($7700) I know there are probably better options at center with Gobert squaring off against Nikola Jokic, and the Denver Nuggets. Keep in mind that we’re staying focused on the math (above). Rudy is a key starting piece of the Utah frontcourt and will be leaned on heavily for his presence down low. In 3 games vs. the Nuggets this season he averages 40 minutes, and supplies a 20 point, 13 rebound double double. Gobert is also one of the better defending big men in the NBA, so there may be some added secondary stats as well. This equates to a 41 DKFPTS average.
Pascal Siakam ($7500) Pascal hasn’t looked to be the superstar he’s supposed to be in the bubble so far. This is the playoffs, and a different story. It’s been a long known fact in NBA DFS to target big men verse the Brooklyn Nets. This is no exception. Toronto is the biggest favorite on the NBA DFS slate (-9.5), and has the second highest expected point total (222). I love targeting this Raptor squad as much as possible. In 3 games verse the Nets this season, Pascal is averaging 35 minutes, 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists. That gives him 45 DKFPTS on average for $7500. Lock him in at the tricky PF spot on your roster.
This is where I will be locking in 3, if not all 4 (including utility) of my guard spots on this NBA DFS slate. I’m not going to break them all down as they should speak for themselves. All 4 of them are starters projected for at least 30 minutes, have 40 DKFPTS upside, and have salaries that fit perfectly in our template. They are all seasoned veterans that should thrive in running their respective offenses in the playoff hunt.
Kemba Walker ($6900)
Fred VanVleet ($6800)
Jamal Murray ($6500)
Mike Conley ($6300)
While we may have overspent a little so far, I think we can still make it happen. Let me give you a list of potential players I’m considering to finish filling out my cash game roster. I’ve listed them in order of salary, not upside, or favorite.
Joe Harris ($4700), Marc Gasol ($4300)(keep an eye on Ibaka’s status here), Marcus Morris Sr. ($4200), Alec Burks ($3900), Jordan Clarkson ($3800), Chris Boucher ($3700) (again, Ibaka status), Monte Morris ($3600), Royce O’Neal ($3500)
I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily family in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays on this NBA DFS slate. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
On the 8.13 NBA DFS Look Ahead, Jim and Michael check out the 8.13 NBA slate and give their favorite plays for the night!
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