NBA dfs

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22

We’re back with another eight-game slate tonight and it features not one player over $9,500 on DK. That’s a rarity anymore and will lead us to a bit more balanced builds than we always utilize. We can also expect Milwaukee Bucks chalk now that Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for the game tonight. There are still plenty of other plays to discuss in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 to lay our foundation to find the green screens! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 Injury Report

Kings – Marvin Bagley (O)

Cavaliers – Kevin Love (O)

Thunder – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford (Q), Darius Bazley, George Hill

Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q), LaMelo Ball, Cody Zeller (O)

Rockets – Christian Wood, John Wall, and Victor Oladipo could be rest candidates 

Bucks – Giannis Antetokounmpo (D)

Celtics – Kemba Walker, Tristan Thompson (O)

Hawks – Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter (O)

Clippers – Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 Positions

Point Guard

Jrue Holiday ($6,800 DK/$6,800) – We’re kicking off the Bucks coverage immediately and Holiday stands to be wildly popular. Just like yesterday with the Lakers, I’m only using two options to write-up in the positions we use the Bucks. There’s a trio of Bucks that will be the stone chalk. When we take Giannis off the floor leaves Holiday with a 27.5% usage rate and a 1.27 FPPM, which is already enough. Now we can add in that the Pacers just played yesterday and roll into this one a bit fatigued. Malcolm Brogdon is indeed on the other side of the matchup and generally, we avoid that defense but this is an exception to the rule. Holiday should easily push for more than 32 minutes tonight and since Giannis didn’t pop on the injury report until after the slate came out, he’s not priced correctly. 

Mike Conley ($6,400 DK/$6,000 FD) – Conley is almost always in the running for cash games because he is steady Eddie. You can count on him for a solid floor and the Bulls matchup represents a nice pace upgrade. Utah is playing a little faster anyway and the Bulls are in the top seven themselves. The 22.8% usage rate and a 1.09 FPPM make Conley super appealing in this spot and he’d be a nice pair with Holiday on FD. Like I mentioned earlier, there’s not a ton to spend up on for this slate. 

Honorable Mention – Trae Young (if we know his status before tip), Kyle Lowry, Theo Maledon (if the Thunder continue to be short-handed)

Shooting Guard 

Paul George ($8,200 DK/$8,200 FD) – The minutes are back to being spiked up for PG13 and in honesty, they have to get their act together out in LA. He’s played 37, 41, and 32 minutes in the past three games and the last game was a blowout. He and Kawhi Leonard are almost identical in usage at about 29% and FPPM at right around 1.30. I will point out that both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace on the season but they are 15th and 16th in defensive rating as well. Without an upper crust to spend on, George is a pretty easy spend, especially on FD. 

Collin Sexton ($7,100 DK/$7,300 FD) – I’m usually pretty hesitant to use Sexton in cash because he’s not a steady player. It’s a lot of high and low-end results but there are a couple of factors that work in his favor. For one, he is sixth in minutes across the entire league. If you tell me I’m getting 36 minutes or more of a player against the Sacramento Kings, you have my curiosity. You have my attention when you say that Sexton has a 29.9% usage. The ball is in his hands constantly and he averages nearly six seconds per touch. It’s hard to not see him scoring some fantasy points in the matchup tonight. 

Marcus Smart ($5,600 DK/$5,000 FD) – It will likely be overlooked with the Giannis news but Kemba Walker will be out tonight for the Celtics. That means Smart should pick up a few extra minutes and his usage actually crosses 20%, which is a rarity for him. Smart also first with a 1.00 FPPM and will be called upon to defend Ja Morant at some points. Morant averages three turnovers per game so Smart could pilfer a pass or two on top of everything else. The price is pretty reasonable on both sites. 

Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Donovan Mitchell 

Small Forward 

Jaylen Brown ($7,900 DK/$7,800 FD) – He’s most likely not going to go Full Steph Curry like yesterday when he hit TEN three’s (yes 30 of his 34 points came from 10 triples) but Brown is still an excellent play. Walker off the floor has a big effect on Brown and Jayson Tatum as both go up to at least a 32.3% usage rate and a 1.24 FPPM. Tatum does hold an edge in both categories but Brown is under $8,000 for those ratios. Memphis is up to ninth in pace and that’s a big upgrade from Boston’s 20th rank. Pairing him with the next Buck makes plenty of sense. 

Khris Middleton ($7,600 DK/$7,000 FD) – The prices are crazy low and I would be surprised if Middleton didn’t clear 75% roster-ship on FD. It’s basically the same song and dance with Holiday, as Middleton sees a usage bump to 32% and the FPPM goes up to 1.36. You can’t find anyone at that level of usage for the prices we’re talking about on either site. The matchup doesn’t really matter, you’re just taking the free square and moving forward. 

Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, OG Anunoby, Bogdan Bogdanovic 

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,000 DK/$9,100 FD) – Looking at the results since the All-Star Break, one would think we’d be avoiding Sabonis. He hasn’t cleared 40 fantasy points in three of those six games. There’s a very easy reason to assume and it’s because Caris LeVert has been worked into the Pacers lineup. The usage has gone down to just 21.7% which is a significant loss. However, the FPPM is still very robust at 1.39. That’s better than the seasonal mark of 1.27 so the addition of LeVert to the lineup has not had the effect I originally thought. To wit, he has games of 61, 65, and 51 DK so the ceiling has certainly been there. 

I think it had much more to do with the matchups with Bam Adebayo twice and Nikola Jokic. With Giannis out, Sabonis has a much easier path to production and he makes for a natural run-back with the chalky Bucks for a cherry on top. 

Bobby Portis ($4,100 DK/$3,700 FD) – Portis might be more of the definition of a free square than Middleton is. His prices are insane for the situation (not the fault of any site) and the field is going to go right to him first and foremost. It would make the most sense for Portis to enter the starting lineup and he has the most minutes without Giannis on the floor. In that sample, he has a 1.10 FPPM and a 21.4% usage rate. Milwaukee will need the size to help with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis on the other side as well. 

Honorable Mention – Tatum, Christian Wood (if available)

Center 

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD) – I wonder if KAT picks up some steam just by default as the most expensive player on the slate. Does the field just anchor to that with Bucks chalk? Perhaps and that makes sense. Looking at the results of the past few games you can clearly see Towns has had issues with back-to-backs. We’ve noted that before and he’s had rest for this game and it’s not a bad spot at all. KAT has a 29.8% usage rate and a 1.37 FPPM with the Wolves still missing players, and it might be hard to overlook that. The Thunder will have a tougher time matching him even if Al Horford plays. He doesn’t have the athleticism to stick with KAT. 

Jarrett Allen ($7,600 DK/$6,700 FD) – I was on him last night to just average results but I’m going right back to the well tonight. If you’ve ever read on a slate with the Kings on it, you know that we go after them with centers. They rank dead last in paint points allowed and 15th in paint rebounds. This is the perfect spot for Allen since he does all his work in the paint. Allen is in the top 10 in paint touches and point scored, not to mention he has a 1.13 FPPM with Cleveland. The FD price especially is super attractive. 

Honorable Mention – Clint Capela, Al Horford

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21

My word this slate is star-studded. We’re missing LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, and maybe Ben Simmons. Yet, we still have Luka, Harden, Westbrook, Dame Time, Bradley Beal, and Kyrie. The Lakers are likely to be strong chalk but we’ll get into that and more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 and lay the foundation for the green screens! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 Injury Report

Nets – Kevin Durant (O), Jeff Green, Blake Griffin (P)

Cavaliers – JaVale McGee (Q) 

Pistons – Hamidou Diallo, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder (O)

Sixers – Joel Embiid, Seth Curry (O), Ben Simmons sat last night so keep an eye on that 

Knicks – Immanuel Quickley, Mitchell Robinson, Elf Payton (Q), Derrick Rose (O)

Mavericks – Willie Cauley-Stein, James Johnson (O)

Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O)

Lakers – Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Marc Gasol (O)

Let’s talk about the Lakers here instead of each position. I believe there’s a good chance that we could use three players. It’s not the normal route in cash but with them missing such massive pieces of the offense we’ll likely be fine making an exception. We’re going to be looking at two or three of Dennis Schroeder, Kyle Kuzma, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Montrezl Harrell. 

Those four players are all at 0.95 FPPM or above with the main Lakers off the floor. The matchup is not great against the Suns, but they will still be very popular. In GPP, I may look at Markieff Morris and THT to game stack another game. For this article, I’m not going to write up as many options since the Lakers will be such a focal point. 

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 Positions

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook/Luka Doncic – The choice at the top end of point guard really just comes down to which site you play. On DK, Russ is cheaper and this is the mother of all spots for him. Both teams are in the top 12 in pace on the season and bottom-six in defensive rating on the year. Even with the Wizards playing somewhat better defense, that’s not going to matter with James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the other side. Watching Westbrook during the last game reminded me of the Thunder version a few years back. He can triple-double at any moment and the Kyrie/Harden combo taking on Westy/Bradley Beal is immensely appealing. 

On FD, Luka is cheaper. On top of that, Westbrook doesn’t get bonuses for triple-doubles and the turnovers hurt worse. We just saw Luka torment the Blazers in the last game to the tune of almost 65 DK points. It’s an elite spot that could turn into another track meet and the usage is off the charts for Luka. He’s up to 36% and a 1.56 FPPM with more responsibility on his shoulders with Kristaps Porzingis being totally unreliable. 

Frank Jackson ($4,000 DK/$3,500 FD) – With Schroeder carrying a ton of attention, we’ll stick to two write-up options. Jackson might garner some attention as well since the field wants to get some of the stars in the lineup tonight. Over the past two games when the Pistons have been short on guards, Jackson has played 26 and 31 minutes. We’ve gotten two very different outcomes as one game was 10 DK and one was 31, but the price tag on both sites is appealing as is the matchup. The Bulls offer the 20th ranked defensive rating and the seventh-fastest pace in the league. If Jackson is going to repeat 30 DK, this is the spot to do it. 

Honorable Mention – Kyrie

Shooting Guard 

CJ McCollum ($7,300 DK/$8,000 FD) – SG is…tough isn’t the word because there are options up top. You can absolutely play Harden but he’s not cheap at all, nor should he be. The Bradley Beal Rule is in effect (especially on DK) since he’s under $10,000. The issue there is Beal is rarely popular enough to make a lot of sense in cash. Perhaps the field chases McCollum coming off a big game. He still didn’t quite get to 30 minutes but he found his shot and that’s what’s important to me. McCollum has a 29.5% usage and a 1.29 FPPM on the season. Additionally, Dallas ranks seventh in three-point frequency allowed and CJM is shooting 44.4% from beyond the arc. When a player of his caliber starts shooting well after an injury, count me in. 

Tim Hardaway ($5,700 DK/$4,400 FD) – The DK price is a little steep but on FD he makes a ton of sense if you eschew the top and play the THJ/THT connection. Hardaway has been asked to play extra minutes with the Mavericks short-handed as he’s played 36 and 40 the past two games. I mentioned earlier that Porzingis has been flat-out bad this year and I wonder if Dallas is either A. trying to feature THJ a bit more for trade or B. trying to help out Luka a bit more. Either way, I have to be interested in a player with that much court time. Featuring a 22.6% usage and a 0.85 FPPM isn’t too shabby either so let’s keep him in mind for this spot. 

Honorable Mention – Harden, Beal, potentially a Knicks guard of Quickley, Bullock, or Alec Burks

Small Forward 

Larry Nance Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – I get the feeling that especially on FD, the field will ignore the very mediocre last game from Nance. he still played 34 minutes and Toronto is dead last in rebounds per game on the season. That should allow Nance to hit the glass in this game and garner a lot more than the four boards he got last game. Cleveland plays slow at 28th in pace but Toronto is 15th, which is a significant upgrade. Nance is another player that could potentially be a trade candidate but even if not, the Cavs will still run him out there 32-34 minutes. Let’s face it, who else are you playing on FD? 

Carmelo Anthony ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – This is the one spot on FD that you can’t play a Laker so Melo stands out quite a bit. Let’s talk about the minutes he’s been getting lately, with games of 27, 29, 30, and 31 in four of the last five. Pulling up the rotations shows something very interesting. 

You’ll notice in the fourth quarter that Melo played when Enes Kanter came off the floor. Portland is having trouble rusting the big man and it says a lot that they can take him off even with KP on the other side. Playing a little smaller makes plenty of sense and the Blazers came back to win the last game. Melo is flirting with a 24% usage and a 1.00 FPPM on the season, more than enough if he’s playing close to 30 minutes. 

Rui Hachimura ($5,800 DK/$4,900 FD) – We want cheaper pieces of this game if we can get them and Hachi qualifies. I will grant you that there is some volatility to him but that can happen when you’re playing with Westy and Beal. He did have a string of three games of at least 30 fantasy points, as evidenced by his 0.79 FPPM and playing 35+ minutes in each of the last four. I’m encouraged by the fact he just didn’t shoot enough last game, taking just 10 shots. In the three directly before that, he took at least 15. The sparkling game environment makes so much sense for him to shoot more and he could flirt with a double-double. 

Honorable Mention – THT on DK, OG Anunoby on FD

Power Forward 

Pascal Siakam ($7,200 DK/$7,900 FD) – I won’t pretend to play doctor but I typically take a wait-and-see approach when a player comes back from Covid. For Siakam, he had nearly a month off from basketball but found his footing quickly with 50 DK this past game and 33 minutes played. He managed to eclipse 50 Dk points despite shooting just 9-22 and the Cavaliers don’t have much in the way of resistance against him tonight. On the season, he leads the Raptors in usage at 25.5% and there’s plenty to like about him tonight. The Cavs have fallen to 20th in rebounding so Spicy P might even get a bump in the respect as well. 

Isaiah Stewart ($4,400 DK/$4,100 FD) – On DK, he’s only a center and that could lessen the appeal. I also don’t know if he’ll be popular enough to warrant a cash play but I will have exposure at some point tonight. I said it last slate he was on but couldn’t make it work. Stewart has been seeing more reliable minutes lately with at least 22 in five of the past seven. He also averages 5.5 pain touches per game and we know Chicago can be had in the paint. They rank 24th in points allowed in that area and Stewart can take advantage of that. We always attack the Bulls with centers and Mason Plumlee is far more expensive despite being in a timeshare with Stewart. 

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Tobias Harris if Simmons remains out 

Center 

Jarrett Allen ($7,500 DK/$6,300 FD) – It hasn’t been the steadiest stretch from Allen but he is wildly underpriced on FD. This is a great game to catch him at a bit of a ceiling as he sits fifth in paint touches and fourth in paint points on the season. Toronto ranks 18th in the category and we mentioned that they are dead last in rebounding. Allen is just outside the top 112 in rebounding chances per game and the Raptors haven’t done well against big men this year. While Trez likely is the most popular option, Allen is in quietly a smash spot. 

Deandre Ayton ($6,000 DK/$6,500 FD) – Talk about underpriced, Deandre Ayton has entered the chat. I realize the raw fantasy points the past two games have been ugly, as have the minutes. There’s a simple reason and it was foul trouble. He combined for 11 in the two games against Karl Anthony-Towns and that’s going to cut into any player’s minutes. The Lakers don’t feature much in the way of defense at the center position tonight. Clint Capela just went 8/16 on 4-16 from the field. Ayton is going to be able to bully Trez on the offensive end if he wants to and the prices just don’t make a ton of sense in my eyes.

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Core Four Saturday 3/20

We have a small four-game slate tonight in the association and that means I personally do not play cash games. There’s too much overlap and the margin for error (already small) shrinks even further. We saw a few new names in Discord last night and I say welcome to the Win Daily Family! The staff is excited to have you and we’ll continue to do our best to get everyone on the winning track. Without further ado, let’s get into the four players that I’m looking to build my GPP lineups around tonight in the Core Four Saturday 3/20! 

Core Four Saturday 3/20

Core Four Saturday 3/20 – Member One 

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 DK/$11,400 FD) – On short slates, we talk about needing the raw points just as much as the 6x multiplier and the flame emoji next to the name. Giannis is the best bet in my eyes to lead the slate in raw fantasy points. He was just a monster in the overtime period last game against the Sixers after playing like junk for most of the game. In the four games since the break, the Greek Freak is averaging a 1.72 FPPM and is trying to propel the Bucks to another number one seed for the playoffs. On the slate, Giannis is the only player averaging over 50 DK points with 58.6. I like other players tonight but Giannis is the foundation especially against a Spurs team that lacks any real size and athleticism to deal with him. 

Core Four Saturday 3/20 – Member Two and Three 

Jordan Poole/Damion Lee – So we’re using a pair of players that I’m building with because Golden State offers a very interesting spot. Steph Curry is likely to remain out, so they’re in the same spot they were last night with a game against the Grizzlies. My take is if the field (roughly 50%) wants to chase the ceiling 66 DK game from Andrew Wiggins, I’m going to let them and go elsewhere. Remember, we don’t need to match all the chalk in GPP. Sometimes a calculated fade is worth it. Curry has missed three games and one of these is not like the other – 

Wiggins shot 14-24 last night and I’m going to bet that’s the outlier. Now, you make the argument Poole and Lee would be outliers. They shot a combined 18-29 from the floor. It’s more about the fact Poole played 34 minutes and Lee easily led the bench with 28 minutes. Give me those minutes and those attempts at the prices and hopefully, Wiggins doesn’t go bonkers this time around.

Core Four Saturday 3/20 – Member Four 

Ben Simmons ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD) – I’m already exploring ways on DK to fit the combo of Simmons AND LaMelo Ball. The exciting rookie gets a matchup with the Clippers and as my man Ghost will tell you, we play primary ball handlers against LA every night. We’ll need a little bit of help with that route so if it doesn’t make sense, I’m going to side with Simmons. The Sixers are without Joel Embiid and Seth Curry, which means Simmons is going to run the offense and have triple-double upside tonight. The pace is fantastic against the Kings and they remain dead last in defensive rating. Tobias Harris has a 25% usage rate to 19.8% for Simmons, but the latter has a 1.23 FPPM to 1.10 for Harris. Once you count potential bonuses on DK, the choice of big-name Sixers becomes evident.

Thank you for reading my Core Four Saturday 3/20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19

As is normal for the NBA, we have a giant Friday night slate with 10 games. It’s always a good time to remind everyone that the field has the same number of roster slots and salary that you do. Don’t beat yourself up about players that aren’t in the lineup, focus on who is and why. Let’s narrow down the pool and start building the foundation in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 so we can find the green screens! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 Injury Report

Kings – Marvin Bagley (O)

Celtics – Tristan Thompson (O)

Spurs – DeMar DeRozan (O)

Pistons – Hamidou Diallo, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder (O)

Rockets – John Wall (Q), Eric Gordon, David Nwaba (O)

Nets – Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin (O)

Magic – Terrence Ross, Micheal Carter-Williams, Cole Anthony (O)

Warriors – Steph Curry, Kelly Oubre (D), James Wiseman, Eric Paschall (O)

Nuggets – Monte Morris, Gary Harris (O)

Mavericks – Dorian Finney-Smith, Willie Cauley-Stein (O)

Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O), CJ McCollum could be an injury management candidate 

Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 Positions

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK/$10,400 FD) – I can already assume that Brian will be talking about this game in total but Luka is going to be my primary focus. Damian Lillard is a very appealing target on his own but Luka has the clearer path to rack up assists and rebounds. Both teams are 23rd or worse in defensive rating on the season and the Blazers are on a back-to-back (and third game in four days). It’s Luka in a dynamite spot in a very important game for the West standings. Let’s not overthink this one. 

Delon Wright ($6,000 DK/$5,600 FD) – What a phenomenal situation Wright finds himself in tonight. First, the Pistons are missing both Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder. Last game, Wright played a monster 37 minutes and has reeled off three straight games over 30 fantasy points. When those players are off the floor on the season, Wright has been sporting a 1.10 FPM with a usage rate of about 19%. The second part of this is the fact that he’s playing Houston and that’s a titanic pace upgrade for the Pistons. Detroit is in the bottom five while Houston in fifth. That’s in the wheelhouse and Wright should have no issues paying off his salary here. 

Jordan Poole ($4,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – If you’re playing DK, Poole is only SG eligible but I would suspect he’s going to be heavy chalk. He’s been a spark plug on the second unit lately, scoring at least 14 real points in the last five games. Curry will almost certainly not play and across 223 minutes, Poole is sporting a huge 25.9% usage and a 1.10 FPPM. I would have to think he’s in the starting lineup tonight but we do need to make sure of that before locking and loading. Keep an eye on Discord for updates. 

Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray, Tomas Satoransky (could still be heavy chalk)

Shooting Guard 

Victor Oladipo ($8,300 DK/$8,100 FD) – Houston has gotten blitzed throughout nearly 20 games, but the Pistons shouldn’t blow them up. That makes me more interested in Dipo since Wall is likely to be out again. Even with Kevin Porter coming into the lineup, Oladipo has maintained a 33.5% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM. That’s something we need to be interested in and even the returning Christian Wood doesn’t ruin Oladipo. The trio should be the entire Rockets offense and this game hopefully sticks close all the way through. 

Caris LeVert ($6,900 DK/$5,600 FD) – On DK, I think the play is Tyrese Haliburton for $1,200 cheaper if he continues to start for the Kings. He played 32 minutes last game and is still under $6,000 there. On FD, they haven’t reacted to LeVert fast enough. Both players are basically the same price but LeVert has meshed well with his new team and played progressively more minutes. In his three games, LeVert has a usage rate of right about 25% and is a 1.00 FPPM per player. That would leave him right around 32 fantasy points, still within range at the FD price tag. The game with the Heat is a great matchup for East seeding on top of everything else. 

Marcus Smart ($5,300 DK/$5,000 FD) – I generally despise writing up Smart for cash because he’s a volatile player. However, since he missed so much time his price went down and now the minutes are just about back. He played 29 in the last game and 24 the game before that, leaving him a path to 30+ fairly clearly. He’s in the top-five in steals per game and facing a Kings team that is dead last in defensive rating helps immensely. Boston also has to get their act together to make a push, so I do a least feel secure with the minutes for Smart. On the season, the 0.87 FPPM is good enough at this salary for the spot. 

Honorable Mention – James Harden, I’ll be interested if Anthony Edwards picks up steam after going bonkers last night, Josh Jackson on FD

Small Forward 

Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD) – I have interest in Jimmy Butler over on DK but the FD price is still hard to get around. Instead, I’ll look to KPJ (he is just PG/SG on DK) and the new lease on his career in Houston. Even with a 51.1% true shooting rate with the big team, he’s averaged a 1.19 FPPM and the usage is over 27%. Much like Oladipo, Wood coming back will not end the usefulness of Porter for DFS. The Pistons are only 19th in defensive rating and we should get full run of 32+ minutes of KPJ in this game. 

Micheal Porter Jr. ($6,700 DK/$6,500 FD) – Perhaps I was a bit too tough on Porter in the earlier portion of the season. He did miss extended time with Covid and had some inconsistency coming back from that, which is nothing to sneer at. He’s put that behind him lately with at least 30 fantasy points in eight of the last nine games. Additionally, he’s scored at least 20 real points in five straight and Denver needs that type of production from him. Chicago is actually 16th in defensive rating but seventh in pace and that’s where I want to utilize Porter. 

Larry Nance ($5,200 DK/$5,300 FD) – Nance was chalky last game and the price didn’t come up nearly quick enough to prevent that again. It can be hard to predict chalk nearly 24 hours ahead of time but I’m betting Nance is a top-five chalky play tonight. Nance is sort of an odd bird as he’s not a usage monster at all. He only has a 14.7% usage and you could sort of refer to him as a (and I stress this word) very poor man’s Draymond Green from a fantasy perspective only. Nobody in Discord come at me and say I compared Nance to Dray! The Spurs are inside the top 10 in pace and Nance has an excellent shot at a double-double tonight. 

Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier, OG Anunoby (FD), Shaddiq Bey 

Power Forward 

Jayson Tatum ($8,900 DK/$8,900 FD) – Tatum is sub-$9,000 and is playing the worst defensive team in basketball? Sounds like a fun time to me. It’s been a little bit since Tatum has had a true ceiling game but we don’t always need that end in cash game settings. This is still a player that’s sporting a usage rate over 29% and leads the starters with a 1.24 FPPM. The true shooting is 62.5% on the season and he’s shooting 37% from behind the arc. Sacramento is in a virtual tie for giving up the worst three-point field goal percentage in the league, another bonus for Tatum tonight. 

Lauri Markkanen ($5,700 DK/$5,600 FD) – He’s going to see some Michael Porter defense and I’m all about attacking that. Markkanen has been a lock for 32 minutes and he really just needs the shot to fall a little bit. That’s been a challenge with a couple of games of just four made attempts lately, but the spot couldn’t be that much better. The Nuggets aren’t the best defensive team overall and Markkanen sports a usage over 22%. I wonder if this game flies under the radar a little bit, but we’ll see how things unfold through the day. 

Note – Speaking of unfolding, PF is a little weird for a 10 game slate. There are a bunch of options up top including Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo (FD price is silly), Jerami Grant, and potentially Aaron Gordon all as options. If he plays, Gordon against the Nets sticks out for sure. We need to make sure he’s active, however. 

Honorable Mention – I really like taking a shot with Isiah Stewart in GPP as his minutes have been up lately for the rebuilding Pistons. 

Center 

Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 DK/$9,700 FD) – Deciding between Vuc and Nikola Jokic tonight is very, very difficult. The last time the Joker tangled with the Bulls, he posted 77.3 FD points from a 39/14/9 effort. That may be the GPP move as I suspect Vucevic will be the much more popular choice. Why? Well, the matchup against Brooklyn certainly helps. They have been dominated by centers all season long and Vuc is one of the better ones in the business. With all the injuries for the Magic, Vuc has been the man with a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.43 FPPM. He’s under $10,000 and I believe the field just takes the cheaper option over Joker, but I could also be wrong. I obviously love Big Honey tonight in any format. 

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,500 DK/$7,300 FD) – I’m a little nervous about this game. I know we always say don’t worry about blowout but Golden State without Steph is about as sketchy as it gets. Still, it’s hard to look past My Name Is Jonas here. The interior of the Warriors is down James Wiseman again and JoVal has over a 1.25 FPPM on the season. Additionally, Golden State is 26th in paint points allowed and 23rd in rebounding. Valanciunas is sixth in paint touches on the season. I don’t think he gets a lot of attention with the Vuc/Jokic combo but there’s no reason not to like the floor of JoVal if nothing else. 

Robert Williams ($5,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – There are a couple of notes for Williams here. Firstly, I don’t think we’ll end up playing three Celtics in cash. Yes, the spot is among the best in the league but it’s still a 10 game slate. Stacking three Celts is not likely to be the solution. Secondly, in the Tatum blurb, I mentioned he leads the starters in FPPM. I made sure I said it that way because Time Lord leads the team at 1.33. 

Since the break, he’s sitting at a massive 1.61 FPPM and we need to pay attention here. With Thompson out, Williams has played 17, 19, 22, and 27 minutes in the past four games. He’s recorded two double-doubles and fell one rebound short of a third. Sacramento is 29th in paint points allowed and 27th in rebounding. The pace suits Williams and he looks like a great option tonight. 

Honorable Mention – KAT (destroyed Phoenix last night)

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18

We only have six games on the board tonight but there’s plenty of star power to go around. Not only that but we have some great spots to take advantage of and some good value spots as well. I’m not sure we get a repeat of Dame 3:16 even though he’s on the schedule against the Pelicans again. Let’s talk about that and plenty more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 to lay the foundation to find the green! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 Injury Report

Jazz – Mike Conley (O)

Thunder – Darius Bazley, George Hill (O), Lu Dort (Q)

Hawks – Clint Capela (O)

Magic – Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (Q), Cole Anthony (O)

Knicks – Derrick Rose, Mitchell Robinson, Elf Payton (O), Immanuel Quickley (Q)

Pelicans – JJ Redick (O)

Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O)

Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell (O)

Suns – Cam Johnson, Abdel Nader (Q)

Lakers – Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Alex Caruso (O), Markieff Morris (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 Positions

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – I bet you expected to see Damian Lillard here but in honesty, he’s $11,000 on DK. That’s a lot even for a player that just scored 50 real points. Instead of looking at Dame as the most expensive player on the slate, I’ll shift gears. Young also isn’t a huge priority on DK but on FD he’s under $9,000 and that’s a green light for me. 

The past couple of games have dragged down Young’s price since he’s scored a combined 27 real points. That’s not going to last and we did just see Zach LaVine light up this Thunder defense. Young is fourth in the league in drives per game and even though OKC will get Al Horford back, they’re still 14th in paint points allowed. This is a good fit for Young to get back on track. 

Chris Paul ($7,700 DK/$6,900 FD) – Another point guard that is priced poorly on FD, the Point God checks the boxes for me tonight. He’s under $7,000 on FD and gets a massive pace upgrade. Minnesota is fourth in the league while the Suns sit all the way down at 25th. CP3 carries a 22.4% usage on the season and a 1.18 FPPM on top of that. If his assist prop is 8.5 or under, I’m going to be interested since he has an assist rate close to 70%. This is a rock-solid pick across the board. 

Ricky Rubio ($5,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – It’s not often we pick on Phoenix with really any position but Rubio can’t be ignored much longer. The minutes have ticked up slightly to 27 or more the past four games and he’s becoming a bigger part of the offense with Beasley and D-Lo sidelined. Since the Break, Rubio is third on the team in minutes and has a 1.14 FPPM, the same as rookie Anthony Edwards. He also has an assist rate right under 40% and the Wolves will need his veteran guile to keep up with Phoenix. 

Honorable Mention – Lonzo Ball, Dennis Schroeder, possibly Frank Ntilikina if all the guards are out for New York 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,100 DK/$9,500 FD) – The GPP pick may well be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after his flop in Chicago. Additionally, we’re going to need to see what projections bring for the main three of the Jazz with Mike Conley out. Donovan Mitchell might well be where we have to go on the other side of this game, but I love Beal once again. The price has gone down for the leading scorer in the NBA and he’s barely over $9,100 on DK. 

We all know his potential and his scoring prowess but there’s another reason I like him. Russell Westbrook is 11th in the league in drives per game and already shoots under 40% off that play. Now he has to deal with Rudy Gobert. I think Beal might have to carry the load even more than normal tonight. We may need to reserve him for GPP and use Mitchell in cash but don’t forget about Beal tonight. 

Jordan Clarkson/Joe Ingles – We’re going to discuss this duo together because FD makes you choose two of Mitchell, Clarkson, and Ingles. Apparently, they all play shooting guard in the eyes of FD. On either site, I fully expect Ingles to be one of the five chalkiest players on the slate. He’s far too cheap on each for a matchup against Washington. Ingles picks up about 1.5% in usage rate but has more of the point guard role against the fastest pace in the league. He can also hit the three-ball as he’s shooting over 46% from beyond the arc. The Wizards give up the fourth-highest field goal percentage from deep on the season. 

I tend to think that the field pairs up Clarkson and Ingles and spends up elsewhere, leaving Mitchell the lowest of the three. What’s interesting is Clarkson actually doesn’t move in usage or FPPM with Conley off the floor. They have played 408 minutes together and Mitchell has been on the floor for exactly 14 minutes of that. So Clarkson’s role is the same whether he’s paired with Conley or not. That won’t (and shouldn’t) stop folks from playing him tonight against the Wizards. His potential is immense in this spot. 

Note – If Quickley plays for the Knicks, he could tend to be popular. We didn’t love him against the Sixers and he flopped, but in the previous game, he was fine while shooting 6-19 from the field. If he’s about the only guard, I’ll take his 33-34 minutes but he’ll likely be DK-only. I’d have a very difficult time not going double Jazz on FD and we still need to see if he plays. 

Honorable Mention – Kevin Huerter 

Small Forward 

LeBron James ($10,700 DK/$10,800 FD) – Last slate, Bron was over 30% in GPP alone even though he was on a back-to-back. He played just 31 and 30 minutes in those games and still nabbed a triple-double in each. Charlotte is top-10 in pace on the season and Bron sports a 1.54 FPPM and a usage of almost 35% when the Lakers are down the pieces they are tonight. I would be very surprised if Bron is not the cash game anchor for the field tonight. 

Danilo Gallinari ($6,100 DK/$5,700 FD) – The price is just a hair high on DK but on FD it’s easier to consider getting a piece of Gallinari Revenge!! Okay, maybe he’s not someone we should chase a revenge narrative for but it is his most recent team and they give up the eighth-most three-point attempts per game on the season. Atlanta has been leaning on him more and more lately, capping with 34 minutes this past game. The pace is appealing in this game as a whole and Gallo has hit 20 real points or more in four of the past five. This is what the Hawks thought they could get before his injury. 

Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,900 DK) – THT seems like he’s going to be tough to fit on FD since we have three Jazz to choose from in the SG position. We don’t have such issues on DK and the Lakers are down bodies. They only have 10 players if Morris is out and that includes some end of the bench players. To wit, there’s a reason THT has played 28 and 26 minutes the past two games. He’s also respectable with a 0.92 FPPM on the season and given the spot, he seems like an easy tag-team partner with LeBron tonight. 

Power Forward 

Julius Randle ($9,200 FD) – I can’t get behind a five-digit price tag for Randle on DK, but FD continues to be priced extremely fairly. Randle has been a minutes monster all year but the Knicks are actually pushing for a playoff spot and Randle has played 39, 41, and 40 minutes in the past three. New York needs him again with Nikola Vucevic on the other end of the floor so we can expect him to play almost the full game. When a player has a 29.3% usage rate and a 1.30 FPPM in the sample with those minutes, it’s not hard to see why we like him tonight. 

Zion Williamson ($8,900 DK/$8,400 FD) – I’m not in love with the price but it’s a tough position on FD especially. If you watched the last game on Tuesday, you saw the Blazers got smacked in the paint. Nobody could stop anything the Pelicans wanted to do close to the basket, and that’s Zion’s jam. He finished 11-17 from the field and almost won the game a the buzzer. It can be very, very frustrating to watch Zion. It’s not his talent or game, it’s the fact Brandon Ingram thinks his mid-range game is more important than feeding Zion in the paint. I’d take the sure two points myself but that’s what the Pelicans are right now. There’s still plenty of floor for Zion and if they ever start giving him 20 shots a game or more, get out of the way. 

Note – We’ll need something to open up. Kyle Kuzma is interesting and at a fair price, but three Lakers isn’t ideal in cash since we don’t always like to stack teams unless it’s an extreme case. That still could happen with the Lakers tonight, but we need clarity. One name I also want to throw out is Nathan Knight. He’s only in play if Clint Capela is out for the Hawks but in the past two games, he’s played 22 minutes and scored 15 and 16 real points. He’d be a very solid punt if we get that chance. 

Honorable Mention – John Collins (if no Capela)

Center 

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,400 DK/$9,700 FD) – If half the Magic are out, we will need to look at Vucevic in a major way. If not, KAT is on my radar for sure. When you look at his results, his lone flop over the past few was a back-to-back. That’s been a bit of an issue for him this year but now he’s got some rest. Deandre Ayton does not represent a challenge in the paint and he’s actually been sitting quite a bit in the fourth quarter lately. KAT is sitting right at a 30% usage rate and it’s been he and Anthony Edwards as the usage monsters. The 1.34 FPPM should shine bright in this spot. 

We can also consider Ayton himself because let’s face it, KAT is a terrible defender. That’s not a secret but here we are. Minnesota is 25th in points in the paint allowed and that’s exactly where we want to target Ayton. It’s going to likely be KAT or Vuc for me tonight unless something pops up during the day. The Thunder could sit Al Horford again which would bring Moses Brown into the picture. 

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Horford if he plays

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16

Happy Steve Austin day and tonight we have another fun seven-game slate in the NBA! The first look would tell us center may be the most difficult position as the options are slim pickings. On DK, six of the top 11 eligible players are out or questionable and on FD we have fewer choices in total. Let’s dive into which paths we need to be looking at in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 and find those green screens once again! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 Injury Report

Heat – Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro (Q)

Hawks – Clint Capela (Q)

Rockets – Christian Wood, John Wall, Eric Gordon, David Nwaba (O), Danuel House (Q)

Knicks – Derrick Rose (O), multiple starters are questionable so we’ll monitor through the day 

Sixers – Joel Embiid (O)

Thunder – Darius Bazley, Lu Dort (Q), George Hill, Al Horford (O)

Pelicans – JJ Redick (O)

Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O), CJ McCollum will return to the lineup tonight but almost has to have a minutes limit

Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell (O)

Lakers – Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 Positions

Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($10,800 DK/$10,100 FD) – I noted up top that McCollum is expected back but I don’t envision him playing normal minutes. That means the bulk of the offense will continue to fall on Lillard’s shoulders and what a spot to have that responsibility. We’ve attacked the Pelicans with guards for a while and Dame still has a 33.2% usage rate and a 1.43 FPPM even with McCollum involved. New Orleans sits fourth in three-point frequency allowed and third in field goal percentage given up, the perfect spot for Lillard. These teams aren’t special in pace at 19th and 20th but they are 28th and 29th in defensive rating. That’s a track meet waiting to happen. 

Dennis Schroder ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD) – The Lakers will be rolling into a back-to-back situation here and are still shorthanded. We always want a piece of teams going against the Wolves, who are 26th in defensive rating and third in pace. It’s not totally out of the question to see a player like LeBron take more of a passive role on the back-to-back spot and Schroeder could easily have a big night scoring. He already sits at over 26% in usage and has a 1.04 FPPM when Gasol and AD are out of the lineup. This style of game could bring out the Schroeder that was an offensive dynamo in Oklahoma City and he’s priced very fairly. 

Tomas Satoransky ($3,600 DK/$4,200 FD) – Neither site really reacted to the fact Sato entered the starting lineup last game and went full ham sandwich, which leaves him as probable chalk tonight. I’m perfectly fine eating said chalk as this is a very good spot. The Thunder just miss the top 12 in pace this year while the Bulls sit inside the top five. In that last game, Satoransky had a usage rate of over 18% and a 35% assist rate. He honestly might be a better fit as a starter since he’s more of a distributor and can let Zach LaVine and the crew do most of the work. The bottom line is the price is silly low and we’ll be taking advantage. 

Honorable Mention – Trae Young (FD), Mike Conley

Shooting Guard 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – I can see SGA being chalk on both sites tonight in honesty. The Thunder are missing a ton of pieces right now and SGA gets an elite spot against the Bulls who play at one of the fastest paces in basketball. We only have a 71 minutes sample with Gilgeous-Alexander with the Thunder in the spot they are tonight. It’s very encouraging as he sports a 35% usage rate and a 1.27 FPPM, not to mention a 31% assist rate. This spot is just too good to pass up and the FD price especially is going to leave him extremely popular. 

Kevin Huerter ($5,700 DK/$5,700 FD) – As long as Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter remain out, Huerter will remain cash-viable. That goes double when he draws a great matchup like the Rockets, who are frankly an absolute disaster. Huerter is a solid (if not spectacular) 0.87 FPPM with those two players off the court this season but he’s going to flirt with around 30 minutes. Houston looks strong in defensive rating at 12th but is in a free-fall over the past few weeks. Huerter is a natural fit in this spot, especially on FD. 

Immanuel Quickley ($5,800 DK/$5,200 FD) – This is going to be interesting. I’m going to guess that IQ will still be popular but I’m already not a fan of this spot. If the Knicks continue to be without multiple guards, Quickley could start like he did last night. That’s well and good, but the rookie will also draw Ben Simmons on defense, which is not a good matchup for him (or anyone, really). Simmons should be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year and IQ is highly scoring dependent. Let’s see where projections take us. I’ll eat the chalk if I have to, but I’m hoping we don’t. 

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Victor Oladipo

Small Forward 

Brandon Ingram ($8,100 DK/$7,700 FD) – Once again, I’m not crazy about this position. If Bam Adebayo is out, Jimmy Butler remains an elite option on DK. I’m pretty sure I don’t want to pay $11,000 on FD so let’s go down the ladder a little bit. The Pelicans can be difficult to peg but one thing is sure – Ingram is taking his shots every night. He’s taken at least 14 over the past three games and has scored 23 or more real in two of three games. On the season, Ingram has a 1.16 FPPM and a 28% usage rate. We already talked about the elite game environment that BI finds himself in and I’m interested tonight. 

Danilo Gallinari ($5,900 DK/$5,600 FD) – I’m back on Gallo tonight as he continues to play 30 minutes a night and has a 0.94 FPPM without Reddish and Hunter. The pace will be awesome in this game and Houston is tied for the 10th worst three-point percentage allowed on the season. Gallinari hasn’t forgotten how to shoot from beyond the arc as he’s gone over 40% from deep. I’m not in love with the price but the position is weak again as we stand. 

Kenyon Martin ($3,500 FD) – He’s over $5,000 on DK which might be more of a fade for me but some of that depends on how many Rockets are available tonight. On FD, I’m not sure there’s a reason to not play him at minimum price. I simply cannot understand the logic behind that. He’s posted at least 30 FD points in three straight games off the bench. He has an FPPM over 1.00 on the season and is too easy a play on FD. 

Honorable Mention – LeBron James, Butler on DK, Kevin Porter (FD)

Power Forward 

Tobias Harris ($8,500 DK/$7,800 FD) – We haven’t really touched on the Sixers yet with Embiid out but Harris is always one of my first looks. It might seem like he’s expensive on DK and he’s certainly not cheap. However, Harris rocks a 28.6% usage and a 1.27 FPPM on the season without Embiid on the floor. The Knicks played last night and the defense isn’t going to be the best in this spot. Harris is a lock for over 30 minutes if the game stays close (and it should) and he’ll likely be quite popular, especially on FD. 

Lauri Markkanen ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – I really like the price over on FD and the game in general. Markkanen has been playing a ton of minutes out of the break, racking up 28, 33, and 32 in the past three. He’s healthy and has had a floor of 28 DK points. That floor came on a 4-12 shooting game, which isn’t likely to replicate. In that game, he had a 0.88 FPPM despite the poor shooting and all he needs is more real points to crush his FD price. The Thunder are 11th in rebounding on the season but that could take a hit without some of who they’re missing. 

Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – I’m going to be willing to back off this pick but I do think Poku brings enough safety to consider in cash tonight. As we mentioned, OKC is short on rotation players and they’ve started to let Poku get some minutes. He certainly has some flaws but the Thunder aren’t exactly trying to win right now. They’ve given him 30, 30, and 39 minutes in three games out of the break. The shot is untrustworthy at this stage but he hits the glass with an average of 8.3 boards in those three games. With those kinds of minutes in a fast-paced spot, we can consider Poku in my eyes. I’m interested to see what the model does with him.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Jayson Tatum, Zion, John Collins (smash play again if Capela is out)

Center 

Rudy Gobert ($8,200 DK/$8,800 FD) – This isn’t a play that I’m a huge fan of but the center position is not great overall tonight. On paper, this spot makes a ton of sense for Gobert. I wish he wasn’t coming off a 24/28 game to cause the price to rise but that’s not something we can help. To their credit, Boston ranks 10th in paint points allowed but they also don’t have the bodies to contend with Gobert down low. Additionally, they rank 19th in rebounding on the season and Gobert should be able to clean up the glass all night long. 

Tony Bradley ($3,700 DK/$3,500 FD) – It appears that Dwight Howard and Bradley are going to split time but the salaries do not reflect that. Bradley is minimum on FD and not much above that on DK while Howard is $6,000 on DK. That’s a pass for me and we just saw Drew Eubanks rack up about 20 DK last night in this spot. That’s more than enough for Bradley and his 1.11 FPPM on the season. I would be surprised if he’s not chalky, especially with the center position being tough as we sit. 

Honorable Mention – Karl Anthony-Towns, Enes Kanter

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15

There is virtually no injury news at the top-end of the slate tonight which probably won’t last the entire day. Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis remain out but that has been the case for some time now. It could be an interesting night if we don’t get a ton of value but let’s lay the foundation for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 and find the green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 Injury Report

Wizards – Raul Neto, Davis Bertans (Q)

Knicks – Derrick Rose, Mitchell Robinson (O), Elfrid Payton (Q)

Nets – Durant, Blake Griffin (O)

Spurs – DeMar DeRozan (Q)

Pistons – Dennis Smith Jr, Wayne Ellington (Q)

Clippers – Patrick Beverly (O)

Nuggets – Monte Morris, Gary Harris (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 Positions

Point Guard

LaMelo Ball ($8,700 DK/$8,500 FD) – The high-end of the position is not the most appealing tonight in my eyes and I may skip it altogether. If that happens, Ball could be where I fall especially against the Kings. Sacramento still represents one of the best matchups on the board with a top 10 pace and the dead last defensive ranking. That’s the exact style of game that suits Ball’s strengths. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and since Ball can fill the stat sheet, he gets added opportunities in this game environment. No player on the Hornets has a higher FPP than the 1.26 Ball sports.

Jrue Holiday ($6,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – I feel like Holiday is a borderline lock on FD since he’s sub-$6,000. This is what I wrote for Saturday when the Bucks played the Wizards.

Considering they face the Wizards and these teams rank first and sixth in pace, we have to have some interest all the way around. It also has to be mentioned that Holiday only played five fourth-quarter minutes last game due to the blowout nature of the game. That can be a concern here but the price is simply too low. He’s second in the league in steals per game and Russell Westbrook is top-five in turnovers. That’s a good mix for some easy bonus points and the 1.06 FPPM on the year is nothing to sneer at.

Holiday proceeded to play 32 minutes and put up 35+ fantasy points on both sites. I was worried because he had two fouls quick in that game but he still stuck with it. Additionally, Holiday only shot 33% from the field last game. His price dropped on FD and we should jump on it.

Reggie Jackson ($5,200 DK/$4,900 FD) – The Clippers will be on a back-to-back and could see either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard sit out. Regardless of that happening or not, Jackson should be in line for another start. The Mavericks are not an intimidating matchup at all, considering they rank bottom-five in defensive rating on the season. With Beverly off the court, Jackson has a 19.5% usage rate and a 0.86 FPPM. That’s not too shabby considering the usage that Kawhi and George have themselves.

Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, Dejounte Murray

Shooting Guard

Terry Rozier ($6,900 DK/$6,700 FD) – Much like the point guard position, SG doesn’t offer me a ton of attractive options. You can always play James Harden but it’s not like he’s cheap or the matchup is spectacular. On FD, DeMar DeRozan could be a strong option if he’s active but that’s not a sure thing yet. If the top-end continues to look sketchy, Rozier is a really nice fallback option. He gets the same matchup we talked about with Ball and has a usage rate over 23% himself. Scoring-dependent players can be a little iffy in cash but there are exceptions to be made and the spot against the Kings makes the most sense. It helps Rozier is under $7,000 on both sites as well.

Immanuel Quickley ($5,600 DK/$4,600 FD) – We know the Knicks are down Rose for sure. Austin Rivers is active but Elf Payton may not be. With all the uncertainty, we have to touch on Quickley against the Nets. He played 33 minutes last game and there’s no denying his potential at this point. We know what Austin Rivers is at this point so we’re really just waiting to see if Payton is out. Give me a talented scoring threat in a massive pace-up spot with the Nets sitting 11th to dead last for the Knicks. With Payton and Rose off the floor, IQ has a 28.9% usage and a 1.10 FPPM.

Caris LeVert ($4,100 FD) – LeVert made his return to the court last game and while he’s still priced up on DK, he’s far too cheap on FD. He played 27 minutes which was great to see and shot the ball 14 times. Sure, he only hit five shots but it should be expected to be rusty after such a lengthy layoff. LeVert still managed to grind out 20 FD points and the ceiling is much, much higher. The price is completely nonsensical and Denver is in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating on top of everything else.

Honorable Mention – Paul George

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,300 DK/$10,500 FD) – This is a great spot to get a ceiling game from the King. Not only does Golden State play at the second-fastest pace in the league, but the game should also theoretically stay closer since the Lakers are short-handed. James is looking at a 34.4% usage rate and a 1.49 FPPM with the Lakers down the players they are tonight, which justifies the price tag. There’s also some narrative that after playing with each other in the All-Star Game, LeBron and Steph will want to one-up each other. Bron could easily turn into a GPP play based on projected ownership, but I’d have no issues paying up either.

RJ Barrett ($6,200 DK/$5,700 FD) – I feel like every night we don’t particularly care for the SF position. Michael Porter Jr. makes sense in cash games as the third component in the Denver offense but we talk about him just about every time. Given the spot, I will likely have two of the three Knicks we’ll discuss today. Barrett has been given more consistent minutes lately and while I don’t think we’ll get 50 fantasy points he’s worth playing. Barrett sees a usage rate over 24% and the FPPM is 0.88 but the pace in this spot makes up for it. Still, he’s more appealing on FD than DK this evening.

Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, Harrison Barnes

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 DK/$11,100 FD) – Just like Holiday, Giannis is in the carbon copy spot that he was Saturday. All Giannis did in that game was triple-double and put up 70+ fantasy points in that game. Granted, the Fighting Russell Westbrooks kept that game close all the way through but still. The Greek Freak has recorded two straight triple-doubles out of the break and seems determined to get the Bucks to the top of the Eastern Conference. Both teams are sitting in the top-eight in pace and it’s the perfect spot to pay up.

Julius Randle ($9,800 DK/$9,200 FD) – We’ve attacked Brooklyn all season long with big men and the time has come to do it again. Randle gets a total smash spot this evening and has climbed to over a 1.30 FPPM while the usage has gone over 29%. On top of those metrics, Randle is third in minutes per game across the NBA. Brooklyn is 20th in paint points allowed and even though Randle isn’t huge in the paint, he knows how to take advantage of a spot. Just play Randle tonight.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,000 DK/$5,700 FD) – If you’re not comfortable spending up on LeBron, just roll down to Kuzma and get the exposure here. Kuzma has been hitting the glass all season long but in the past two games he’s recorded 26 total rebounds. On top of that, he’s played at least 30 minutes each night and scored at least 24 real points. DK priced him down enough to use him on either site and the Warriors are 22nd in rebounding this season. The past two opponents for the Lakers were 25th and 29th in rebounding, making Kuzma a very appealing option tonight.

Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant, Marvin Bagley

Center

Richaun Holmes ($6,400 DK/$6,700 FD) – Nikola Jokic is always in play but expensive. Instead, we could go further down the ladder and this is an elite spot for Holmes. He’s tied for ninth in paint touches and 12th in paint points on the season. On the flip side, Charlotte is 27th in paint points allowed and they are 13th in rebounding. Sacramento will need the size of Holmes to combat that and Holmes is averaging a little over 30 minutes per night lately.

Note – Whew, the center position is….not great tonight. Joker is an arm and a leg on FD but could work. The matchup between Jonas Valanciunas and Deandre Ayton in the Grizzlies/Suns game is interesting to me but I’m not sure I’d trust Ayton in cash. I would rather just play Holmes and save the money over JoVal.

Going a little lower, Jakob Poeltl gets a nice spot against Detroit. They have shown the willingness to play Isaiah Stewart a lot lately, and that’s why I don’t trust Mason Plumlee for cash. Still, the trust factor with Poeltl isn’t really there at this price tag. The last player I’ll mention is an FD special – James Wiseman. He’s $3,900 there and I’m interested to see if he gets attention. If not, keep him in mind as a punt.

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!