Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 3/20

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Tonight, for Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 3/20 we will be breaking down a shorter four-game slate. We have two stars expected to be out with Steph Curry and Joel Embiid. Also sitting is Seth Curry for the 76ers, as is Cody Zeller for Charlotte. and Serge Ibaka remains questionable. Injuries and late news happen to be a huge part of NBA DFS and the Discord Chat room will offer tremendous help on how to adjust to any news. The highest projected total for tonight’s slate is Sacramento vs Philadelphia and it opened at 235 ½. Another game projected for over 230 points is the Hornets vs Clippers matchup. Although this is just a four-game slate I like that we already have several routes to building lineups including the choice of simply playing Giannis or not. Regardless we have a four-game NBA slate to break down so let’s dive into it!

For today’s article, I will be using DraftKings pricing throughout. It will be a bit different today with the shorter slate. I am going to do a brief breakdown of each game and highlight or talk about my top plays. On shorter slates, I may not cover two players from each position depending on the slate.

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 3/20

Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers
Kings
De’Aaron Fox – ($9,500)
It is tough to ignore the 60-point fantasy night he had against the 76ers in their prior meeting. Now Fox is taking a few more shots and has seen an uptick in usage over the past six games. He is averaging 22 shots per game and a 3% uptick in usage. Without Embiid the 76ers have been the fifth-fastest team but do rank 1st in defensive rating during that same period.

76ers
Tobias Harris – ($8,800)
When Embiid and Curry are off the floor Tobias sees a 5% usage increase bringing his total to nearly 29%. He gets a wonderful matchup with the worst defensive-rated team this season. In the three games without Embiid, Harris is averaging 47 fantasy points. This matchup is his most favorable without Embiid with the Kings allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards as well.

Shake Milton – ($5,200)
We see Milton lead the team in usage at 29.8% when Embiid and Curry are off the floor. He is averaging over a fantasy point per minute during that time. Now he gets an extremely favorable matchup where the Kings are allowing the second-most fantasy points to shooting guards on the year. With these two 76ers, you’re absorbing a good majority of the team’s usage and Milton is a reasonable price.

Dwight Howard ($6,000)
In the past two games, we saw Howard record 28 and 30 minutes which is a good sign. He went for over 30 fantasy points in those games. Now he draws a matchup against a Kings team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to centers this season. In the previous meeting with Sacramento, Howard went for over 28 fantasy points in just 13 minutes.

Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies
Golden State

Andrew Wiggins – ($6,300)
Last night was a massive night for Wiggins going for 40 real points absorbing 37% of the team’s usage without Curry. We shouldn’t expect a repeat of last night but at this price, the floor is there. Wiggins is averaging over a fantasy point per minute with the several injured players off the floor for Golden State. It wouldn’t surprise me if Oubre possibly sat here as he was relatively ineffective when he played yesterday.

Jordan Poole – ($5,100)
Again, Curry is expected to remain out and Poole got the start which led to 34 minutes and fantasy points with 25 real points. In last night’s game, Poole got up 15 shots and has shot over ten times in six straights. An interesting number is Poole is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute when Curry, Wiseman, and Paschall are off the court. It is a small sample size but Poole’s usage is 34% during that time as well which is notable for this price tag.

Memphis
It is unlikely that I will be playing any Grizzlies. Now that everyone is healthy the minutes are everywhere the rotation is deep and tough to predict. If you want to take a shot on someone in large field GPP’s they will likely be low-owned unless we get news.

San Antonio Spurs vs Milwaukee Bucks

San Antonio
Keldon Johnson – ($5,400)
Again, let’s not expect a repeat of last night for Johnson but his price was too cheap before the massive game. The Spurs were slowly working him back after the long absence and now Johnson has seen over 30 minutes in three straight games. Giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards Is the team he faces tonight in Milwaukee. Keep an eye on DeRozan’s status throughout the day as well.

Milwaukee
Giannis Antetokounmpo – ($11,100)
I will choose to play Giannis on this slate he is just too consistent. He has scored below 57 fantasy points just twice in the last 15 games. His usage has taken a slight dip with Holiday back but that hasn’t mattered as Giannis just scored 76 fantasy points against the Wizards. A lot of lineups will start with Giannis today and it is hard to argue against it.

Jrue Holiday – ($6,500)
Since returning Holiday was slowly worked back and has finally shaken that with his 41 minutes in the overtime game with Philadelphia. The Spurs have given up the second-most fantasy points to point guards this season. If we look at the games that Holiday has gotten over 30 minutes, he rarely scores under 30 fantasy points.

Charlotte Hornets vs Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers
Kawhi Leonard – ($9,200)
The Clippers are easy for me most nights with only Kawhi or PG13 in consideration. Tonight, Kawhi faces a Charlotte who has allowed the most fantasy points to small forwards on the year. This is a huge pace-up spot for the Clippers with Charlotte being the fifth-fastest team in the past ten games. Leonard has gone for 50 in two of his games since the break and a great matchup awaits him here.

Hornets
Bismack Biyombo – ($3,300)
This is projected for an over 230 total and Cody Zeller is out. This isn’t the safest play but he does have over 20 fantasy point potential. The opportunity for more minutes is there with Zeller out as well There is nothing flashy about this play so on this small slate if he gets chalky, I will jump ship. With all the primary usage players healthy for Charlotte I won’t be playing much of them against the Clippers.

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 3/20

Final Thoughts
Thank you for tuning into Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 3/20. I enjoy these shorter slates because it is almost like a mini-break due to the fewer teams to research. The two main games’ two targets will be the Kings vs 76ers and the Clippers vs Hornets. You may find value in the 76ers and Warriors with a few players out for each squad. More news can break at any minute these days in the NBA due to health protocols so be sure to check out Discord Chat. You will find the WinDaily staff and Me in there helping answer questions you may have. The projection models are also important to help find the cheap plays and best point per dollar plays.

Another reminder is to check out the MMA section and find my article over there for tonight’s UFC fight card. Have a good night and good luck with your DFS lineups!