Tag:

NBA dfs

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 7.1

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Another day of playoff NBA and we are here to get you ready. The end of the season can be a nightmare so I am personally ecstatic to know who will be playing and having the tightened rotations so that we can better project the winning plays for you. We have everything you need to help you find success no matter the scenario including our NBA Projection Model, Cheat Sheet, Discord, Youtube, @WinDailySports on Twitter, and Reddit. Yes folks, we have a Reddit page. Let’s dig in, have some fun, and make some cash with Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 7.1.

You already know by this point we are left with nothing but Showdown slates for the remainder of the NBA Playoffs so you’ll be stuck eating a lot of chalk. What makes this game so interesting is that we are likely going to be missing Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and we could also be without Clint Capela so we have plenty of avenues to attack in terms of mid-range and value plays.

The elephant in the room: I am not saying to fade John Collins tonight. If both Capela and Trae sit he leads the team with a 30% usage rate but I would run a lineup or two without him. I say this because without Capela on the court Collins tends to get into foul trouble early and often, so it would make a ton of sense to leverage a couple of lineups on a guy who will be 80% owned at a minimum. With that said he is in a great spot and should carry a big part of the workload. Just a little food for thought.

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 7.1

Danilo Gallinari, Hawks, $4,800 :

If you were just checking the roster and saw that Capela was going to be out your natural inclination would be to pivot to John Collins and that is well deserved but Danilo Gallinari is someone a little further down the line who gets a huge bump of 4.5% in usage and ends up second overall behind Collins with a 26.6% usage rate and averages 36 DK points per 36 minutes when without Clint and Trae. If both sit I am anticipating a 40 minute floor and the Bucks have been one of the worst in the NBA when it comes to defending three-point shooters.

Jrue Holiday ($9,600)/Khris Middleton (10,400), Bucks:

I am putting them together because they are dealing with the same scenario and because they both see insane usage bumps of over 10% with Giannis off the court. I’m not going to overanalyze this one on a showdown slate. I think you will need both in your lineups.

Cam Reddish, Hawks, $3,200:

Cam has been slowly brought back online and two nights ago he saw 23 minutes and shot 5-9 from the field with a little bit of everything on the stat line. They finally pulled him from the injury report and there is no report of a minutes limit as of this point and he sits at a juicy $3.2K. With Trae and Clint off the court Cam see a 7.2% usage increase and is just under a fantasy point per minute play. You can not do better at that price.

Lou Williams, Hawks, $5,200:

Sweet Lou looked amazing in his first start in the playoffs and unfortunately, Draftkings bumped his price up from $2,800 to $5,200 because of it. While I do not expect him to go 7-9 from the field again he plenty in terms of rebounds and assists to give him a better floor that we are used to seeing from a guy who is historically known as a shooter. If he gets the start at point guard again I expect to see a pretty similar stat line given his roll as court general.

HAVE FUN AND WIN SOME MONEY!

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 7.1. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 6.30

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

You already know by this point we are left with nothing but Showdown slates for the remainder of the NBA Playoffs so you’ll be stuck eating a lot of chalk. Getting different in one or two spots and leaving a little extra salary on the table will be the only things that you can do to keep from chopping the pot with 500 other people. Let’s give you a coupe of plays that can help separate you in that regard.

Chalk Report Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 6.30:

These are my personal projections for where I think the chalk will fall tonight. They can change through the day based on news.

Paul George: 70% Utility/ 23% Captain

Devin Booker: 60% Utility/ 18% Captain

Marcus Morris Sr (if Zubac sits): 85% Utility/ 16% Captain

Deandre Ayton: 80% Utility/ 14% Captain

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 6.30

Paul George, Clippers, $12,000:

There is no need for much of an explanation here. He is a clear choice and the main threat for the Clippers without Kawhi. George’s minutes floor is 40 minutes and in a knockout game I think that floor is 45 minutes and he has a DK ceiling north of 70 points. Play him. You can get different elsewhere.

Marcus Morris, Clippers, $4,000:

If Ivica Zubac does end up missing out Morris is going to be taking on a bigger chunk of the offensive responsibilities and will likely see north of even the 39 minutes that he played in game five where he went 9-16 from the floor and finished with 31.25 DK points. I would not be surprised if he ended up being the highest owned play of the night given his price point and if he ends up with a usage rate of more than 25% which I think will be the case, that 32 DK points we saw in game five is the floor for him

Deandre Ayton, Suns, $8.8K:

He is my favorite captain play on the evening. Not only did we get a $400 decrease from game five but he could be facing a Clippers front court without Ivica Zubac and Serge Ibaka leaving the shell of Boogie Cousins and Daniel Oturu guarding him. The ceiling in this scenario in a contest where he will see 40 minutes at a minimum is downright silly. We may see a 20+ rebound game tonight with the Clippers having nobody athletic enough to even slow him down.

Daniel Oturu, Clippers, $1,000:

If what you want to do is load up on the highest price guys on the night and you need a pure punt play that could potentially give you 10-15 DK points let me introduce you to Daniel Oturu. Who is he do you ask? Just a guy to be honest. But if Zubac sits the Clippers are not going to have Demarcus Cousins running up and down the court for 40 minutes so Oturu will have to at least play 10-12 minutes. It is nothing special, in five games where he saw at least 10 minutes he gave you 15.5, 8, 5.5, 10.75, and an outlier of 38 DK points but he is a 1K player that will give you all of the salary relief that you need if you are dead set on paying up.

HAVE FUN AND WIN SOME MONEY!

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 6.30. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/20

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Sunday brings us what is very likely the last two-game slate of the NBA season and instead of Ghost, it’s Adam Strangis filling in. The NBA world is still talking about the magnificent Game 7 between the Bucks and Nets last night but we get another Game 7 tonight in Philly. Before that game takes place, we get the Clippers against the Suns at the start of the West Finals so let’s ride into NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/20!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

NBA Core Member #1: Cameron Payne

Payne will almost surely be chalk today since he’s only $4,000 on DK and we know that Chris Paul is out for Game 1. DK doesn’t even make us think about this one because, in the course of the regular season, Payne was a 1.03 FPPM player when Paul was off the court with a 19.6% usage rate and a 29.5% assist rate. When CP3 was nursing the shoulder injury in the Lakers series, Payne really stepped up and had four games above 25 DK and two over 35. We’ll surely see big minutes from Payne and at this price, that alone makes him highly valuable. The fact he’s shown he can thrive in the postseason is just a bonus.

NBA Core Member #2: Devin Booker

Sadly, this playoffs has become known for the injuries/ailments of All-Star players just as much as some of the great games we’ve witnessed. With Paul out, I’ll turn to the full backcourt here of Phoenix and play an underpriced Booker. He’s already had some signature moments this year and making an impression in the WCF has a clearer path with no Paul. When CP3 was off the floor this season, Booker had a 34.8% usage rate and the offense is going to flow through this backcourt. No offense to anyone else on the offense, but that’s the way it is. If you have any worries about Paul George’s defense or something like that, Donovan Mitchell’s 39 points on a bum leg should soothe that fear.

You can round out the Phoenix exposure with either Deandre Ayton or Jae Crowder as well. I really like Ayton as he can punish the Clippers for playing small. This is a young man that just held his own against the Lakers frontline and Nikola Jokic. I think folks that watched Rudy Gobert struggle mightily against the small ball Clippers could be surprised to see Ayton flourish in the same spot. Ayton is not a must-play, but a strong one in my eyes. The loss of CP3 doesn’t kill his offense because Ayton has 1.29 points per possession on putbacks in the playoffs. The Suns aren’t running a lot of plays for him.

NBA Core Member #3: Terrence Mann or Seth Curry

Alright, so this isn’t a cop-out but this is where the fork in the road pops up for the first time. I believe that Mann will likely be insanely popular even at $4,900 after he just dropped 39 real points and was the hero of Game 6 for LA. I don’t think the price hike is wildly out of place but I also don’t think Mann will come all that close to replicating that feat. It was the most points he’s scored at the high school, collegiate, or pro level. In Game 5, he played all of 26 minutes and put up 23 DK. The Clippers need players to step up without Kawhi Leonard, but Mann has every path to 5x return here.

Instead, consider going with what I have to assume will be a less popular option in Curry. The prime argument against the Other Curry is he simply can’t keep shooting like this, going 13-21 from deep alone the past two games. At the same time, Curry has netted at least 17 points five times in this series and is playing 35 minutes or more. The Sixers desperately need his shooting with Danny Green out and other players…well, having issues. We’ll be kind. The only teams that made it into the second round that gave up a higher made field goal percentage from deep were the Nuggets, Clippers, and Jazz. Atlanta has been vulnerable to the three-point shot. I’ll say this, I want to get a read on ownership and take the player we think will be less popular. You may not have the luxury to play both, as you’ll see.

NBA Core Member #4: The Stud

Once again, this is not a cop-out because my pick is Paul George. My feeling is you have to take one of PG13, Trae Young, or Joel Embiid and not try to finagle two of them if already playing Booker. George or Young presents a bit of a roster dilemma on DK because if you’re playing the other three, those two have to go into the utility or guard spot. Embiid would offer some flexibility if you choose that route. All three of these players have similar ceilings and if you opt for a Game 7 player, I wouldn’t fight you.

I’m siding with PG since Kawhi is out for at least the first two games and George has been sublime in the two games without him so far, scoring 71 and 54 DK points. He’s gotten to the line a total of 18 times and played 40+ minutes in each game, scoring 28 and 37 real points. George also crashed the boards with 25 total rebounds and they’ll need him to replicate that against the front line of Phoenix. He’s racked up a 33% usage rate and I have some concerns about how well that knee is holding up for Embiid. As far as Young goes, I have no issues subbing him in over George and he’s rocking a 36% usage rate these past two games. I believe the floor is slightly higher for George, so I’m heading there since Philly and Atlanta are relatively healthy, and more is on George’s shoulders.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/14

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/14

The article may be titled Ghost’s Gems but this is Adam Strangis filling in for the one, the only, Ghost on Monday morning. The NBA playoffs keep chugging along with the Suns being the first team to reach the conference finals while the Nets are suddenly down two superstars and facing a rocky Game 5 back in Brooklyn. That game will have to wait because the other two series take center stage tonight so let’s get to work in NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/14!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

NBA Core Member #1: Joel Embiid

To put this in the bluntest way possible, the Atlanta Hawks have not anything resembling an answer for Embiid in the three games so far. He’s poured in at least 27 points in every game and more importantly has logged at least 34 minutes. With a knee injury hanging over him before the series started, it’s safe to say Biid has resoundingly answered the bell. Sporting a 35% usage rate to lead all players in the playoffs, Embiid is destroying the Hawks and he sits fourth in net rating as well. He averaged about 10.7 trips to the free-throw line in the regular season but so far in this series, he’s taken 47 free throws already and has hit 38 of them. Game logs aren’t everything but seeing Biid score 58 DK on just 14 shots from the field tells you how dominant he is capable of being.

NBA Core Member #2: Furkan Korkmaz

The Sixers lost Danny Green very early in the last game and Korkmaz came off the bench to play 27 minutes for 21 DK points. During the regular season, he shot 37.5% from beyond the arc and the Hawks are third among teams remaining in three-point field goal percentage allowed. Only the Clippers and the Jazz allow a higher percentage and make no mistake, that’s pretty much why you’re playing Korkmaz. He needs to hit three’s to have value but I’m encouraged that he played the most minutes out of himself, Matisse Thybulle, and Shake Milton. Thybulle will contribute virtually nothing on the offensive end and Korkmaz went from six minutes in Game 2 to 27 last game. That’s enough for me, at least sitting here on Sunday night.

NBA Core Member #3: Nicholas Batum

Clippers Coach Ty Lue finally saw enough of Ivica Zubac in the starting lineup and elected to play smaller, using Batum and Marcus Morris along with Kawhi, Paul George, and Reggie Jackson. Batum responded with 35 minutes of complementary basketball to Kawhi and PG13, racking up 32 DK points. Zubac has been down to 13 and 14 minutes in the past two games and that particular starting lineup helped get the Clips their first win in the series. We can safely say to not expect 30 DK from Batum very often because he’s not going to shoot the ball a ton. His nine shots last game were the most of the playoffs so far. He’ll still grab a couple of boards and dish a couple of assists. At $4,500, we’re looking for time on the court and Batum fills that role. The 22 minutes from Marcus Morris were his fewest by a lot this series and it likely wasn’t a coincidence Batum went from 27 to 35.

NBA Core Member #4: Kawhi Leonard

From my perspective, we have to choose a lane between Kawhi or Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell. You could fade Embiid and ultra-stack the late game, but that is not likely to be my path. Mitchell has been unreal this postseason but there are two reasons I side with Kawhi. One, he has a 28% usage rate and while that is significantly lower than Mitchell, Kawhi offers a more well-rounded game. He averages more rebounds, only .5 assists fewer, and over two steals per game.

Kawhi was also put on Mitchell more defensively this past game and that seemed to really get Kawhi going. He was far too quiet in Game’s 1 and 2, both losses. Leonard only shot 1-6 from deep and still put up 63 DK points. LA cannot go down 3-1 heading back to Utah or this one is likely over. My other major fear was seeing Mitchell leave the game with his ankle issue last time. Yes, Mitchell could have come back but the ankle is very clearly not 100% right. One bad landing could send him out (and we all hope that doesn’t happen). On average, Kawhi has scored 53.15 per game this playoffs while Mitchell is barely over 50 (and I’m not counting his first game back from injury). Kawhi also has the higher ceiling with three games over 60 DK and seven over 55. I’m taking him in another must-win game where he’ll have the Clippers on his back.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 6/6

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

Today’s NBA GPP Picks 6/6 will be an afternoon slate featuring our first game seven between DAL and LAC. The other game we have to break down is Atlanta vs Philly game one of that series. Speaking of that series we have injury news to watch for as Joel Embiid and De’Andre Hunter both enter today questionable. That will make Discord Chat an important piece of your morning to follow the story of these two players.

Our WinDaily family will be in and out of there helping you adjust to any news that falls. There is no time to waste with an exciting game seven to keep tabs on.

Today will be different because of the two-game slate. I will break down my top plays from each game on both sides of the ball using DraftKings pricing.

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 6/6

Atlanta vs Philadelphia

Atlanta
De’Andre Hunter – ($4,400)
Hunter has played over 32 minutes in three of Atlanta’s last four games which is a positive. In three of those games Hunter went for over 22 fantasy points He is questionable today but came into the last game with the same status and played through it. The 76ers play at a much faster pace than the slowest-paced Knicks. That will benefit Hunter itself and the minutes shouldn’t be capped as long as he gets the green light.

Danillo Gallinari – ($4,100)
Gallinari averaged above a 20% usage rate the last series and has a very nice price tag for that. He has scored 20 fantasy points in three of four and in the game he didn’t score 20 he missed every shot he took. That likely won’t happen again and he gets a plus matchup against a quicker-paced Philly team. If Hunter were to sit Gallinari will be a lock for me as his minutes should be solidified. Trae Young is the only other guy I will consider from Atlanta but it will be tough to get there with my exposure to game two.

Philadelphia
Seth Curry – ($5,100)
Last game that Embiid sat out Curry led Philly in usage at a rate just over 30% and scored 33 fantasy points. Most of those points were from real points as he had 30 but he went 3-6 from three so it isn’t like he was scorching from downtown. His 17 shot attempts last game were his most in nearly two months and if Embiid is out again he should get close to that. I do like that he will likely be guarded by Trae Young as well.

Dwight Howard – ($4,500)
In Howard’s last matchup against Atlanta, he played just 17 minutes and scored nearly 40 fantasy points. If Embiid is out Howard will likely need to play as many minutes as Capela does for Atlanta. With Capela averaging above 30 minutes in the last series, we could see Howard get close to that pending Embiid’s status. His ceiling is high in my eyes if Embiid is out and I will take that shot to save some salary. If Embiid sits Harris and Simmons will be great options as well it will just be tough for me to get to them with all the salary I’m spending in this next game.

Dallas vs LA Clippers

Dallas
Luka Doncic – ($11,100)
For me, the Mavs are easy it’s Luka or no one. The man has scored under 61 fantasy points just once in their six games so far. In these six games, Luka is averaging an absurd 40.75% usage rate. His minutes in the past two games eclipsed 40 and now he faces a win or go home scenario. A massive usage rate and over 40 minutes should easily allow Luka to surpass 60 fantasy points again. I do think Jalen Brunson is a cheap option if you want to go that route.

LA Clippers
Paul George – ($9,000)
It will be tough to squeeze both Luka and Kawhi on a squad so I’ll take the near thousand dollars saving for PG. He is averaging a usage rate of 27.4% in this series and scored over 46 fantasy points in four of the last five meetings between these two. Last game in a win or go home situation PG played 46 minutes and put up over 50 fantasy points. We can expect much of the same here in this game seven matchups between these squads.

Reggie Jackson – ($5,400)
Jackson has been a solid third option this series scoring 15 or more real points and 25 or more fantasy points in five straight games. His minutes last game was the highest they have been all series at 38 minutes played. That is encouraging since Jackson turned those minutes into the performance of a 43-fantasy point. In these past five games, Reggie is averaging a 24% usage rate which is plenty given his reasonable price tag.

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 6/6

I will have plenty of exposure to that game seven especially if Embiid is out more DFS players will shift toward Philly. The minutes for guys like Kawhi and Luka will be through the roof with their seasons on the line tonight. I will have Luka or Kawhi as my main staple in most of my lines. Be sure to get in Discord this morning to stay updated on when the Embiid news falls. That will wrap it up for NBA GPP Picks 6/6, best of luck on your DFS lines, and enjoy your Sunday!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.31

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are dealing with a two game slate tonight I am going to just keep this to a core. We’ll have plenty of time to talk about the ancillary plays in discord and the model is on point as always. When in doubt, TRUST THE MODEL.

I have a little thought about this 76ers/Wizards game. It is purely opinion so take it with a grain of salt. Joel Embiid loves talking trash, and while I love that he is the way he is, right now he is rubbing it in a bit too much. Sometimes he can and has crossed the line and created scenarios where he starts some extracurricular activity on the court. So, we have Brodie on a bad ankle, down 0-3 listening to Embiid, and potentially being swept. Coaches (especially on the 76ers) are aware of this I am certain that they do not want to risk a situation where their big man missed time because things get heated. Not saying fade, just be aware of the potential. Ok, I rambled long enough, let’s get into the breakdown.

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.31

Seth Curry, 76ers, $4,300:

Curry is going in my core for a pretty simple reason. The Wizard do not have an answer the the 76ers and they are basically cruising through this series and it really does not even look like they are trying. In three games they have won by 29, 25, and 7. Due to this guys like Embiid and Simmons have combined to play over 30 minutes once….Once. So, if I am targeting 76ers I am choosing to stay in the value-mid range to get exposure tonight as they get out the brooms. Curry has played no less than 23 minutes and no less than seven shots this series and he has been looking pretty consistent in his roll with the Sixers regardless of the game script.

Tobias Harris, 76ers, $7,300:

While I am going cheaper with 76ers I am not blind, they are still scoring 120+ every single night and Tobias is taking more shots than anyone else on the sixers (56 in the last three) and he is also the cheapest of the three stars and he is playing the most minutes of the three as well. If there is another blowout scenario I see Tobias as the main beneficiary of that this evening so the floor/ceiling combination at his price is something I have a hard time passing up.

Mike Conley, Jazz, $7,000:

I thought Donovan Mitchell returning would put a dent in Mike Conley’s usage….Nope. Still hanging out at around 26%, taking around 16-18 shots, and his assist numbers are really impressive right now. On the season he is averaging 6.3 APG but over the last ten that number is a full five assists higher at 11.3 APG and he has a great price tag at 7k flat. Why after three straight 50 DK point games he has not gotten to 8k is beyond me but I will take the value.

Rudy Gobert, Jazz, $7,800:

Rudy is just flat-out dominating Jonas Valanciunas and the Grizzlies as a whole in this series. He is dancing a fine line with the fouls but this aggressive play is resulting in more blocks and scoring opportunities if he can keep himself out of trouble. In-game one he fouled out early and only played 25 minutes but he still gave you a double-double with three blocks and 35.75 DK points. From a physical standpoint if he continues this the Grizzlies are not going to be able to stop him. Period.

Using this core will leave you with $5,900 for your last four players. You could choose to stay balanced or fit another stud like Embiid, Westbrook, or Beal so you have some options on where you go from here.

HAVE FUN AND WIN SOME MONEY!

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.31. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30

Uriah Wesson 4 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Ah, playoff basketball how I love you. The end of the season can be a nightmare so I am personally ecstatic to know who will be playing and having the tightened rotations so that we can better project the winning plays for you. We have everything you need to help you find success no matter the scenario including our NBA Projection Model, Cheat Sheet, Discord, Youtube, @WinDailySports on Twitter, and Reddit . Yes folks, we have a Reddit page. Let’s dig in, have some fun, and make some cash with Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30.

Since we are looking at small slates from here on out we’ll be keeping the list smaller than usual. Be sure to fill in the gaps with our projection model and discord. I’ll have my core posted about an hour prior to lock. I am also going to go against our normal procedures and put some value guys in here to fill things out so you can play with builds early.

***this is by no means all encompassing, there are plenty of other strong plays but honestly what kind on analyst would I be if I just gave you all of the high priced guys. We all know who they are. These are just the guys that I happen to prefer. If you have a gut feeling and they are not on this list, please go for it. I want to see you win, I do not care if it is with a play I do not recommend so long as you win. I will celebrate you victory all the same.

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30

Point Guards:

Luka Doncic, Mavericks, $11,100

I should not need to explain this. We have been hammering this concept for the entire season. You play primary ball handlers against the Clippers. Period.

Derrick Rose, Knick, $6,000:

This man must have access to the fountain of youth. He’s bee playing 39 minutes a night and he has taken 21 shots in each of the last two. I was firmly under the impression that Julius Randle would be taking over these games but he has been more than happy to facilitate and play defense while letting Rose lead the teams offense and it has bore fruit. 32.75, 37.75, and 47.5 DK points in the last three games and his usage is sitting at around 26% in each of these last three. It is not just points either, he has also been giving us around 5 assists and five rebounds in each of these games as well. His knees are shot, I know. But I think this man just wants to win and he will deal with the physical toll in the offseason. I am very much pulling for this guy from a personal perspective. Just a few years ago he was written off completely and yet here is is dominating on a team that none of us thought would be here at the beginning of the season.

Reggie Jackson, Clippers, $4,400:

Reggie Jackson is shooting the ball? Welcome to playoff NBA. He’s played 30 and 34 minutes in the last two games and has taken 12 shots in each and giving you a few peripherals in the process. His ceiling is 28 DK in my opinion but we are not living in the world where you have to score 380 points just to win a contests. As of right now 302 point is winning the single entry I’m playing tonight. You have to think differently this time of year. If you tell me a guy will score 15-18 points, and get 3 or 4 rebounds and assists and maybe a steal or two for $4,400. Easy value play for me tonight.

Shooting Guards:

Paul George, Clippers, $8,600:

I can not believe I am doing this but the data says that I have to recommend “Playoff P”. He has been playing well and quite honestly there isn’t anyone out there on Dallas that can guard him. The Mavericks are tailor made for PG13 to dominate. Who’s gonna guard him? The answer is nobody and besides Kawhi they have no other shooters.

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30

Small Forwards:

Kevin Durant, Nets, $9,900:

The conspiracy theorist in me felt like Durant’s injury during the season was never as bad as what we were made to believe and they were keeping him rested and ready to take over when the playoffs started and his game right now is making me feel more and more right about this. He is the clear #1 in this big three. In the three games against Boston he has led the team in usage, total points, rebounds and steals. Boston has no answer for him and he is $600 cheaper than Harden.

Romeo Langford, Celtics, $3,300:

When Williams went down you would have thought that Luke Kornet was going to get all of the minutes left behind. No, not even close. Romeo Langford played 27 minutes in game three. While he did not look great he gave you 16 points at a $3,000 price tag and I do not expect people to go in this direction. I think people will automatically lock in Kornet do to the position v position swap but Boston won game three and there is no way they are going to change away from something that works at this crucial stage. Right now this is a gut play but I have a really good feeling that Boston is going to choose to go a little smaller and opt for more shooting. Pure gut feel but I really think he’s gonna get another 30 minutes and near min price. You don’t get chances like this often in playoff NBA. Take advantage folks.

Power Forwards:

Jayson Tatum, Celtics, $9,800:

We already know the Celtics are without Jaelyn Brown and know Kemba is a true game time decision with a knee issue and Robert Williams is doubtful. I do not know how many of you play basketball or have played but you need that leg drive for your jump shot so even if Kemba plays I do not see him being effective so it’s all on Tatum’s shoulders. He had some duds this series but the situation dictates that you have to play him tonight and he seems to right the ship with a massive 50 real point performance. With no Brown, Williams, and Walker on the court Tatum has a massive 38% usage rate over the last four weeks and I am expecting 30 shots as his minimum tonight.

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers, $9,200:

He is Kawhi, it is the playoffs, and the Mavs can not play defense. I do not need to say anything else. Moving on

Centers:

Tristan Thompson, Celtics, $5,200:

Brooklyn still can’t guard the glass and Triston Thompson has already had two double double’s in this series and he sees a huge 4.9% usage bump and about 10 more DK points without Williams, Brown, and Walker on the court.

Deandre Ayton, Suns, $6,700:

Criminality undervalued still. He should be 7.2K. I have no good reason for this but Ayton is the only big I have seen that has been able to get around all of these giant men that the Lakers have. I have no good answer for it but I’m going to ride the hot hand. You give me a mid priced center that can drop 40+DK and the Lakers and I’m jumping all over this one. He looks like a lock for 20-10 with CP3’s elite ability as a floor general. The fact that he is injured actually increases the opportunities for Ayton as Paul has taken a step back from scoring and his using his elite level passing and intelligence

HAVE FUN AND WIN SOME MONEY!

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Core Four 5.29

Allan Fabrykant 4 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

NBA Core Four 5.29

After a full week of three-game slates, we are back with four games across the entire day on Saturday! The Miami Heat are on the brink of elimination, the Wizards and Blazers have their backs against the wall, and the Grizzlies are back home. We’re going to have a ton of options today and the NBA Core Four 5.29 will outline who’s going to help lead us to the green screens again!

NBA Core Four 5.29

Core Member One – Ben Simmons

Over on FD, the price is far more competitive but DK continues to disrespect Simmons. He’s under $8,000 yet again and showed in the last game that he can get it done in under 30 minutes. In Game One, he scored a measly six real points and still clipped 50 DK. These pace-up spots like the Wizards represent the best possible outcome for Simmons, as he can flirt with a triple-double and add in blocks and steals. Washington has given up at least 120 points in each game and was a bottom-five defensive rating in the regular season and that continues in the post-season. The fact he’s doing all of this on a 19.3% usage rate is incredible. On DK, you can really go nuts with guards and throw in Mike Conley since Donovan Mitchell is not full-go from his ankle injury yet.

Core Member Two – Bryn Forbes

I certainly wouldn’t expect Forbes to go full flamethrower as he did in Game Two when he poured in 22 real points on 6-9 shooting from deep, but Donte DiVincenzo is now out for the Bucks. After he left the game, Forbes played almost the entire time with 15 of his 20 minutes coming from that point on. That was also without playing a single minute in the fourth quarter since the game was out of hand at that point. While playing with the starters isn’t exactly the best way to hit serious upside, Forbes shot 45.3% from beyond the arc all season. Value is extremely hard to come by in the playoffs and if we can get 30 minutes at the salaries, Forbes needs to be heavily considered.

Core Member Three – Damian Lillard

I know that all three members have been at the PG position so far and n FD you have to make a choice. I would lean towards the Dame/Forbes combo to spend up on FD at other spots. Either way, Denver has shown exactly zero ability to stop Dame Time from scoring so far in this series as he’s dropped 34, 42, and 37 real points. That’s led him to have a floor of 53 DK and he’s not yet $10,000 on DK. To put that in perspective, Dame has out-scored Nikola Jokic in DK points in two of three and finished just six points behind him in the third game.

Of course, game logs aren’t everything but that illustrates you can get roughly the same score for a cheaper price. To the surprise of nobody, Joker and Dame are second and third in usage rate in the playoffs, trailing only Luka Doncic. The Blazers really need this game and Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers won’t be stopping Dame Time today or any other day.

Core Member Four – Jusuf Nurkic

I can already hear Discord saying “foul trouble” and I’m not here to argue that. Nurk has fouled out in two consecutive games and guarding Nikola Jokic is virtually impossible. However, watching the games I noticed that at least a couple of fouls in the past couple of games have been silly, away from the basket fouls. I’m referring to setting screens, and other aspects of the game. I’m betting the Blazers coaching staff has made it a point with Nurk to cut that out. Portland needs(and I can’t stress that word enough) Nurkic on the court. He’s recorded two double-doubles so far and he shouldn’t be under $7,000 on DK, risk aside. In Game Three, Nurk played 32 minutes and missed the back half of the fourth quarter. He could have played 35+ minutes and I’m going right back to him with potential for 50 DK point upside.

Thank you for reading my NBA Core Four 5.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/24

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

Tonight’s NBA GPP Picks 5/24 slate will bring us just two games. It will be Miami vs Milwaukee and Portland vs Denver. As far as I know, there is no injury news to watch with Will Barton already ruled out. That doesn’t mean we can’t have a surprise Covid situation so make sure you pop in Discord Chat throughout the day. Join the WinDaily staff and me in there talking tonight’s basketball games and hop in our MLB chat as well. I’ll keep it short and sweet today so let’s roll into our picks.

Today will be different because of the two-game slate. I will break down my top game stack for tonight’s slate using DraftKings pricing.

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/24

Portland vs Denver

Portland
Damian Lillard – ($9,500)
In-game one it was certainly Dame time and I will ride that train again. He played 40 minutes, shot 25 times, and scored a total of 59 fantasy points. His usage of 35% stood out as it was 10% higher than anyone else on the team. It wasn’t like he was scorching from the field either as he shot 10-25. In my opinion, he is still underpriced which is enough to put him as a centerpiece in my builds.

Jusuf Nurkic – ($6,700)
I watched all of the last game and I saw Jokic eat up Kanter when those two were matched up. That may be a big reason Nurkic played 33 minutes and I would expect him to again. The Former teammate of Jokic holds his own against the MVP candidate, which should solidify his minutes on the floor this series. I know one game was the season finale but Nurkic has scored 42 fantasy points or greater in two straight games against Denver. Since he is guarding Jokic there is foul trouble potential here but he’s got a 40-point upside with those minutes.

Honorable Mention – Norman Powell and Anfernee Simons

Denver

Michael Porter Jr. – ($7,000)
MPJ is the clear-cut number two option as long as Barton is out. In-game one Porter took 21 shots in route to a 28.5% usage rate. With that, he scored just shy of 40 fantasy points falling one rebound shy of a double-double. The Blazers have been the second-worst defensive squad all season so buckets against them aren’t hard to come by.

Austin Rivers – ($3,800)
There is nothing fancy about this play other than the value with minutes. In-game one Rivers was trusted to play 33 minutes and logged 20 fantasy points. If he continues to play that many minutes against the second-worst defense in the league you cannot ignore him at this price. With those minutes Rivers provides a floor that won’t hurt a lineup and on a two-game slate with limited cheap options, I will take it. I do believe Monte Morris is also in play at just $100 more you get more shot attempts but fewer minutes.

Miami vs Milwaukee

Miami

Jimmy Butler – ($8,500)

I will try to fit Jimmy in with those other four up top. He owned a 30% usage rate in game one and scored 47 fantasy points but shot only 4-22 from the field. If he makes two more of those shots he is above 50 fantasy points and 6-22 is still pretty bad. The pace up spot helps Jimmy with rebounds and I believe he will flirt with a triple double most of this series.

Goran Dragic – ($5,000)

In game one Dragic played 35 minutes on his way to over 30 fantasy points. He was third on the team in usage just above 25% while taking 17 shot attempts. The Bucks rank second fastest in pace this season which is a massive pace up spot for Dragic and the Heat. That 5K price tag is too cheap for me if he is going to play more than 30 minutes.

Honorable Mention – Trevor Ariza

Milwaukee

Jrue Holiday – ($7,700)

If I play anyone from the Bucks side it is Holiday who has scored over 43 fantasy points and recorded a double-double in three straight games. Holiday and Middleton were basically tied in usage behind Giannis last game at 24.5%. The Buck point guard gets peripheral stats at a solid clip to provide a solid floor. He is also the cheapest of Milwaukee’s primary usage guys. The Heat slow the pace enough and do a good job defending him for me to play him in game two. I believe Dame can get me near the same ceiling in his matchup for over a thousand less.

Honorable Mention – Brook Lopez
Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/24
When you plug those four into a lineup it leaves you with $5,750 to play with. That amount of salary will allow you to plug in Holiday, Middleton, or Jimmy Butler from the other game. You would still be left with around $5,000 to spend pending which player you selected. I hope you enjoyed NBA GPP Picks 5/24 and may your screens be green!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/23

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

We are back for the second set of game ones in the opening round for NBA GPP Picks 5/23. Yesterday was an amazing day of basketball and let’s hope for the same today. Today’s slate brings the opening game of WAS vs PHI as the highest total of 229. That is handily above the other three games with the highest of those three coming in at just 216. There will be minimal to no injury news to worry about although Lebron and AD are listed as probable there is no doubt they will play. Just to be cautious join the WinDaily crew in the Discord Chat rooms where you can stay tuned into any breaking news. We have a noon start today so we do not have any more time to waste!

For this first round, I will do it a little differently. I will go over each game giving my top plays while considering ownership slightly more for GPP’s due to the smaller slates. This article will be using DraftKings pricing.

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/23

Washington vs Philadelphia

Washington
Bradley Beal – ($8,700)
In Washington’s final three games of the year Beal averaged a 35% usage rate. That is 10% higher than Westbrook who is priced over 3K higher. Now I know Westbrook has the peripheral stats but that should tell you that Beal is underpriced. Under a month ago he was priced above 10K. A cheap price should make up for the tough matchup and Beal is averaging 49 fantasy points in three games against Philly.

Philadelphia
Joel Embiid – ($9,800)
Embiid is the usage monster for the 76ers and today he is priced under 10K which is rare for him this year. In three games against Washington Embiid is averaging 30 minutes while scoring 52 fantasy points. Bump those minutes up to near 35 and Embiid should find no trouble scoring over 60 fantasy points. It will not matter who Washington throws his was Gafford, Len, or Lopez. Either player that guards him Joel will eat up in this series. I do believe Harris and Simmons can be paired together if you do not play Embiid.

LA Lakers vs Phoenix

Lakers
It’s tough for me to justify the Lakers in this series. Lebron’s ceiling in this series is around 60 for me and I can get more out of Embiid I believe. If you do not pick Lebron or AD from the Lakers you are not picking much. I like AD’s matchup more and he showed that scoring 70 fantasy points in one game against the Suns this year. I will say it is playoff Lebron who is a different breed but there is equal to better upside elsewhere.
Suns

Chris Paul – ($7,500)
With CP3 averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute this year he will benefit from the near-guaranteed 35 minutes in the playoffs. Since playoffs are here, I believe we see a slightly different CP3 that takes his share of shots. A big reason for that may be the attention Booker gets from the Lakers. In three games against the Lakers, this season Paul has an average of 33 minutes while scoring 42.75 fantasy points.

Jae Crowder – ($4,100)
You are going to get massive playoff minutes out of Jae Crowder at a cheap price tag. He may get that task of guarding Lebron which will only solidify his minutes. No usage or flashy numbers here but in the three games against LA, he has played 31 minutes while averaging 24 fantasy points. Crowder should get the least attention from the Lakers so he could get plenty of open looks from three.

Atlanta vs New York

Atlanta
Trae Young – ($8,500)
The Hawks star is averaging a 33.5% usage rate over the past nine games four of those games saw Young score over 50 fantasy points. New York is good overall defensively but has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards this regular season. We see this in Young’s 49 fantasy point average in his three games against New York. His price is way too cheap for his usage rate and reminds me of my thoughts on Lillard last night.

De’Andre Hunter – ($4,000)
Hunter is slowly working back from injury but is expected to have his limit increase for playoffs. He did play 24 minutes in his final game so his limit should not be anything too crazy. Before his injury, Hunter was a big part of this offense. We see evidence of this in his first three games back where he has not average less than a 20% usage rate. In one game against the Knicks, he scored 38 fantasy points.

New York
Julius Randle – ($9,200)
For me, the Knicks are the easiest team it’s these two or no one. You can cover nearly 60% of the Knick usage with these guys. Randle averaging the majority of that with a 32% rate. With that usage rate and the minutes, he plays is impossible to ignore. The man has played 44 or more minutes in three of his last four games. We add his successful resume against the Hawks where he is averaging 65 fantasy points per game and Randle seems like a no-brainer.

Derrick Rose – ($5,500)
With Rose the question was always the minutes he would play. Now he is playing under Thibs again and that is not an issue as we have seen him play up to 39 minutes. In the last three games, Rose saw close to 30 minutes his lowest fantasy output was 31. In New York’s last five games Rose has a usage rate of 27.5%. For the first round, he draws an excellent matchup against the squad that allowed the most fantasy points to point guards all year.

Memphis vs Utah

Memphis
I will stay away from this entire game most likely. Memphis still played a ten-man rotation against the Warriors and that was with Brandon Clarke playing no minutes. The only guy I would even remotely consider for Memphis would be Morant but him matching up with a veteran defender in Conley is not ideal. The prices for these Memphis players are a little steep given they are playing Utah.

Utah
Since Mitchell is returning from his month-long absence, I’m not a fan of Utah either. The majority of these guys are priced up due to Mitchell being gone for an extended period. The only player I consider from Utah would be Mitchell but what are his minutes going to be after over a month out. If we get word that Mitchell is a full go I think you can play him but that is it for me.

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/23

This Sunday of playoff basketball will be entertaining to watch. My favorite series of these four games is the NY vs ATL series I do believe Lakers vs Suns will be fantastic as well. Let us not sell this Sunday full of sports short at all with the final round of the PGA Championship and a full day of MLB. Whatever your interest may be today check out all our projection models and other articles to help you see green! Thank you for tuning into NBA GPP Picks 5/23.

4 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

NBA dfs

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 7.1

Danilo Gallinari, Hawks, $4,800 :

Jrue Holiday ($9,600)/Khris Middleton (10,400), Bucks:

Cam Reddish, Hawks, $3,200:

Lou Williams, Hawks, $5,200:

Chalk Report Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 6.30:

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 6.30

Paul George, Clippers, $12,000:

Marcus Morris, Clippers, $4,000:

Deandre Ayton, Suns, $8.8K:

Daniel Oturu, Clippers, $1,000:

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/14

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 6/6

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 6/6

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.31

Seth Curry, 76ers, $4,300:

Tobias Harris, 76ers, $7,300:

Mike Conley, Jazz, $7,000:

Rudy Gobert, Jazz, $7,800:

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30

Point Guards:

Luka Doncic, Mavericks, $11,100

Derrick Rose, Knick, $6,000:

Reggie Jackson, Clippers, $4,400:

Shooting Guards:

Paul George, Clippers, $8,600:

Win Daily Sports NBA Playoff Breakdown 5.30

Small Forwards:

Kevin Durant, Nets, $9,900:

Romeo Langford, Celtics, $3,300:

Power Forwards:

Jayson Tatum, Celtics, $9,800:

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers, $9,200:

Centers:

Tristan Thompson, Celtics, $5,200:

Deandre Ayton, Suns, $6,700:

NBA Core Four 5.29

NBA Core Four 5.29

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/23

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/23

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.