NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/2

There are only five games this evening and hopefully, they aren’t quite as nuts as Wednesday was. We do have key pieces already ruled out but it’s always easier to deal with that the night before. We have plenty to talk about for just five games in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/2 so let’s get moving. It’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s Ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Chris Paul ($8,600 DK/$8,400 FD)

With the news that Devin Booker is out for a little bit with a hamstring injury, Paul should probably be over $9,000 right now. We saw him flash 50 DraftKings point upside in this past game. This is a spot with some legitimate blowout concern against the Pistons and it’s pretty easy to get to Dejounte Murray, but we talk about him all the time. CP3 has a 22.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute with Booker off the court this year and while that comes with a 63.7% true shooting rate, Paul is still as strong play. He’s shooting 51.6% as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and Detroit is 13th in points allowed in that play type. 

Derrick Rose ($4,800 DK/$5,500 FD)

In the first game that Kemba Walker was out of the rotation for the Knicks, both Rose and Immanuel Quickley played at least 34 minutes. You could argue Quickley is the better play on FD since he’s $1,300 cheaper and both look similar. They both have usage of at least 20.9% (Rose is at 23.2%) and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.90 (Rose is 1.05). Quickley even has a better true shooting rate and Rose has a higher assist rate. The Bulls are seventh defensive rating but they’re 13th in pace, which is plenty in this matchup if Rose is going to see those amount of minutes. 

Honorable Mention 

Murray

Tyus Jones/De’Anthony Melton 

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100 DK/$7,900 FD)

We know that Josh Giddey will be out for the Thunder tonight and that means SGA is about to shoulder almost the entire load. His usage rate climbs to 34.2% and the fantasy points per minute are at 1.26 and that usage rate jumps by 6.6%. Memphis is 11th in pace and still 30th in defensive rating while OKC counters with ranking 14th in pace. This should be an up-tempo (if potentially sloppy game) but Memphis struggles defensively. An interesting facet is the play type data for SGA. He’s second in scoring in isolation this year at 7.2 points while Memphis allows the ninth-most points. However, that has been without Dillon Brooks for most of the season. He is the best defender on the team so this is a pretty fun matchup. There may be a case to be made to play SGA in cash, and then fade in GPP if you think he can’t get to 50 DK against Brooks. 

Anfernee Simons ($4,900 DK/$5,200 FD)

Not only is Damian Lillard going to be out for a bit, but Simons might get an even bigger bump tonight. Murray from the Spurs would be expected to guard C.J. McCollum and that’s a downgrade for most offensive players. Maybe not a huge bump, but McCollum is approaching $9,000. Simons has yet to hit $5,000 on DraftKings and he fits into any build. He already has a 24.7% usage and 0.96 fantasy points per minute. If McCollum struggles to find a shot, that should go well over 1.00. The minutes were spiked at almost 36 last game and he hit 29 DraftKings points despite shooting 5-14 from the field. San Antonio is also playing at a top-five pace, so everything points to Simons having a big game. 

Honorable Mention 

Alec Burks 

Alex Caruso 

Value Spot 

Small Forward 

Dillon Brooks ($7,000 DK/$5,800 FD)

Right back to the well. He let us down last game but the Blazers are terribly defensively as well. These teams are 29th and 30th in defensive rating. That is as bad as it gets as far as matchup and both teams are in the top 17 in pace. The usage for Brooks without Ja Morant is crazy high at 34.4% with 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Should he have the usage that high with the talent around him? Probably not. It also doesn’t matter because that’s the way it is. He took 18 shots in 33 minutes and only hit five, so when the shot falls it’s going the be a big game for him. This would check the box of an environment that can create the chances for Brooks to take advantage of. 

This position remains horrid, so let’s see what the day brings. I am considering Lu Dort (especially if SGA is having a tough night against Brooks), I may roll Burks in that spot, and then possibly Khris Middleton or Zach LaVine in a pinch but I wouldn’t be excited there. 

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000 DK/$11,000 FD)

Provided Giannis plays on a back-to-back (not a huge concern but it’s possible), he should have his way against the Raptors interior. OG Anunoby remains out so that leaves Precious Achiuwa and Scottie Barnes to deal with Giannis inside. Sure, good luck with all that. Toronto is only 14th in points allowed in the paint but Giannis isn’t just a paint guy, obviously. He has a usage of 34.4% and 1.70 fantasy points per minute, which is silly that we’re sometimes on the fence about playing him. This is a smaller slate so raw points become more and more important, and Giannis has the highest odds of being the top scorer on the slate. He’s also the only player on DraftKings over $10,000 so it will be interesting to see how the field treats him. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,100 DK/$6,900 FD)

Triple J might be a bit too pricey for my blood tonight but he does have some upside, even if it’s not a stable facet of his game. His usage flies up the board to 31.3% without Morant on the floor and the Thunder provides a strong matchup. The fouls are a bit less of a concern considering the lack of big men for OKC and they are dead last in paint rebounds and 20th in points allowed. JJJ is not the traditional center by any stretch but he has seen minutes at the five and there’s nobody capable of hanging with him down low. He can also travel away from the basket and is hitting the 3-point shot almost 35% of the time. He and Brooks will be expected to carry the squad for the foreseeable future. 

Honorable Mention 

Julius Randle

Value Spot 

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($9,300 DK/$8,800 FD)

Deandre Ayton ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD)

Honorable Mention

Jusuf Nurkic

Jakob Poeltl

Value Spot 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/27

We have a tidy seven-game slate tonight and plenty of question marks that can swing our priorities. We don’t have to deal with Philly as they should welcome back some of their starters. There are still a lot of options on this slate so let’s dive in for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/27 and find who we like!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

LaMelo Ball ($10,400 DK/$9,500 FD) 

We’re going right back to Ball even on a back-to-back. First, no starter for the Hornets played over 29 minutes last night as the game was a total blowout. This game against the Rockets is under a five-point spread and both teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and they are top three in pace. There is a reason the total is the highest on the slate right now at 221 and there is no reason to shy away from Ball. He leads the team in usage at 27.6% and 1.38 fantasy points per minute and just look at what he put on paper last night. He scored almost 40 DK despite playing just 29 minutes and shooting 4-10 without hitting a three. Those kinds of players are rare in DFS. 

Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 DK/$7,900 FD)

I’m cheating a bit but the point guard spot appears to be a little thin at the top end. It would not be surprising at all if Mike Conley sat this game as he’s yet to play a back-to-back set. When Conley is off the floor, Mitchell has a 33.8% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute. He’s also scoring the second-most points as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll play type. The Pelicans are bottom four in points allowed and points per possession, so Mitchell with no Conley would be incredibly cheap, as would other Jazz players like Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jordan Clarkson. 

Honorable Mention 

Luka Doncic

Kevin Porter

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Devin Booker ($8,600 DK/$7,700 FD)

Booker went nuts in New York last night with 32 points and the Suns got to shave a few minutes off their starters as well. Both the Suns and Nets are top eight in pace this season and while they are top eight in defensive rating as well, this game has a 220 total and the perimeter defense is suspect for Brooklyn. Booker leads the team in usage at 31.1% and 1.20 fantasy points per minute and the Nets do allow a 40.1% 3-point frequency. Booker is flirting with 40% from deep and getting some exposure to this game is smart, especially under $8,000 on FanDuel. 

Patty Mills ($5,000 DK/$4,900 FD)

I’m not always in love with players this expensive that is almost wholly depending on their shot but Mills is logging major minutes for the Nets with their players that are missing. It does look like Bruce Brown will be back but they are still without Joe Harris. Mills should still see 30 minutes or so and he’s scoring 5.3 points per game as a spot-up shooter. That’s in the top 20 in the league and Phoenix is allowing the 11th worst field goal parentage to spot-up shooters. As I said, I want exposure to this game, and one of Brown or Mills could be a route to get it. 

Honorable Mention 

Bradley Beal 

Jalen Suggs (If Cole Anthony is out)

Value Spot 

Small Forward 

Jimmy Butler ($9,700 DK/$9,800) 

I will say upfront that the SF slot is likely going to be a spend-down option for me, like a Bruce Brown or Joe Ingles if Conley sits. Miami having everyone in the lineup makes it tougher to hit the ceiling that is required at this salary but Butler is so involved with every aspect that it’s still possible. He has a 27.6% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute and Chicago is dead last in points allowed in the paint. Butler scores 6.8 points per game in the paint and Butler also tacks on almost three points per game in transition. The Bulls allow the eighth-most points in transition per game and there is a narrow path for Butler here, even though he is not a primary target with the Suns game and Hornets game on this slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Kevin Durant

Miles Bridges 

Brown/Ingles 

Power Forward 

Evan Mobley ($7,000 DK/$7,400 FD)

The last time we saw Mobley, he struggled and got hurt but he’s not missed that much time so we should likely expect him to go right back to his roughly 35 minutes per game workload. He has 1.09 fantasy points per minute without Collin Sexton and the Magic frontcourt is very vulnerable. They are 28th in points allowed in the paint and 24th in rebounds and Mobley is 15th in points scored in the paint with 7.1 paint touches per game. The only reason I wouldn’t want to play either Mobley or Jarrett Allen (who has higher paint numbers than Mobley) would be a minutes restriction on Mobley. If there is, the pivot to Allen is easy to make. 

Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD)

The fact that Cole Anthony was ruled out by around noon yesterday leads me to think there’s still a chance he doesn’t go today either. Even if he plays, Carter Jr. is still too cheap at an 18.4% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute. He still has 16.7 rebound chances per game and they’ll need what they can get against the big men from the Cavaliers. He can even shoot the three a bit at 39.7% although it’s not the largest part of the arsenal. The Magic are playing at the 15th highest pace which is faster than Cleveland so that helps. If Anthony does remain out, Carter bumps up slightly to 1.11 fantasy points per minute and would be chalky again. 

Honorable Mention 

Miles Bridges 

John Collins 

Value Spot 

Center 

Deandre Ayton ($7,200 DK/$7,800 FD)

Brooklyn is still struggling in the paint and even though they have tightened the ship as far as points allowed (13th), they are 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint. Ayton leads the league in points in the paint at 12.7 and he has the seventh-most rebound chances per game. Brooklyn is tied for 12th worst in points per possession allowed to the roll man in the pick-and-roll, while Ayton is sixth in points scored as the roll man. It’s going to be a challenge for the Nets to contain Ayton tonight for 30 minutes, considering he has 1.18 fantasy points per minute on just a 20.9% usage rate. 

Christian Wood ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD)

It’s been a minute for Wood to be a featured player, but the Charlotte frontcourt cures a lot of what ails you. Wood has fallen to a 22.2% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute but the Hornets are in the bottom-eight in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. The big man for Houston has almost 17 rebound chances per game and he scores 5.5 points per game in the paint. The minutes have been flighty and the Rockets are a terrible team, but as long as he gets the minutes he should this is a fantastic spot and Wood is a player that was $9,000 within the last 10 games. Take the discount and run. 

Honorable Mention 

Clint Capela 

LaMarcus Aldridge 

Value Spot 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/24

We have a massive slate since tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the NBA is off, so 26 teams play tonight. This is always sound advice but tonight more than ever – do not play if you can’t be around for news until the slate locks. The slate before Thanksgiving could be late scratch city, so be warned. With that said, we have a ton of work in front of us in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/24 so it’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Dejounte Murray ($9,600 DK/$9,700 FD) 

Murray should be in for a big game here as the Spurs are eighth in pace and the Hawks are 27th in defensive rating this year. Murray is still under a 49% true shooting rate so he has room to improve on his 1.29 fantasy points per minute. The usage is at 25.5% and Murray is third in assists coming from drives to the basket. Atlanta is 13th in points allowed in the paint and the Hawks are 10th worst in points allowed to the pick-and-roll ball-handler. Murray takes the fourth-most field goal attempts per game in that play type and he’s not really expensive enough yet. 

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD)

Brogdon has a strong chance of being chalky and I don’t care. He’s still in a great spot tonight and even though he scored just 38 DraftKings points last game, that came in just 28 minutes. Brogdon has a 27% usage on the season and he’s sixth in drives to the basket. The Lakers defense is 28th in points allowed in the paint and Brogdon is going to give them plenty of issues as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, seeing as he runs that play type 44.6% of the time. I’m leaving the options a little bit open because the complexion of this slate is going to change during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

LaMelo Ball (FD price is absurd)

Ricky Rubio (especially if Darius Garland is out)

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,300 DK/$8,500 FD) 

Maybe this is more of a FanDuel play but the price is so cheap in a spot we love to attack with guards that I may get suckered into Beal again. He’s got some serious positive regression coming at some point. The true shooting rate is just 51.7% and that’s not indicative of his talent. Beal has been at 57.9% at a minimum in the past three seasons and Beal still has a 32.2% usage and 1.13 fantasy points per minute despite his shooting. He’s also in the top 10 in isolation attempts while the Pelicans are in the bottom 10 in points per possession allowed. Beal is going to go nuclear on one of these slates sooner or later. 

Buddy Hield ($5,600 DK/$5,600 FD)

We don’t want to read too much into the Kings in their first game with a new coach, but Hield seeing a few more minutes is a big deal. He played 31 compared to his seasonal average of 28 and Hield has a 24.5% usage rate and a 1.00 fantasy point per minute. He also is a sharpshooter from deep, shooting 39.6% and he’s shooting almost 11 per game. The Trail Blazers are on a back-to-back, have the stone worst defensive rating in the past two weeks, and they allow the third-highest FG% from beyond the arc this season. 

Honorable Mention 

C.J. McCollum

Desmond Bane 

Value Spot (Magic likely to offer some)

Small Forward 

Miles Bridges ($7,800 DK/$8,300 FD) 

Since I likely can’t spend the salary on LaMelo on DK, I may wind up with plenty of Bridges. He’s under $8,000 in part because he had a putrid game last game. Keep in mind, he just scored 54 the game before that. Orlando is dead last in points in the paint and while Bridges isn’t the poster boy for paint touches, they’re going to struggle with him. He can catch lobs from LaMelo, he can shoot the three a little bit, and he has 13.4 rebound chances per game. His usage is still over 23% and the fantasy points per minute are over 1.05. The salary does not match the ceiling. 

Josh Giddey ($6,600 DK/$6,000 FD)

This is far from the best matchup for Giddey since he’s facing Utah but the salary may not have come up enough with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not being active tonight. We just saw last game that he can score 40 DraftKings points despite scoring just 15 real points and shooting 0-5 from 3-point distance. Utah is in the top five in rebounding so that aspect could be tough for him but he still has a usage rate over 22% without SGA and his fantasy points per minute are 1.10. Considering the salary and 30-32 minutes, that is enough and I’m willing to go there even in the face of the matchup. 

Honorable Mention 

Brandon Ingram

Lauri Markkanen (could be very chalky on DK)

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 DK/$8,400 FD)

It’s time to get back to our favorite in Sabonis. The game logs don’t look fantastic, to be clear, However, look at the minutes attached to the past three games at 22, 22, and 26. All three games were blowouts and the Lakers are in a back-to-back situation. Sabonis is one of just five players averaging over 10 paint touches per game and he’s just under double-digits in points in the paint at 9.4. The Lakers are 28th in points allowed in the paint and the size of Indiana might give these Lakers some issues, although LeBron is back. Either way, Sabonis has been producing in limited court time lately and I’m happy to take advantage. 

Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)

This is a similar situation as Sabonis because the Magic have gotten the tar beat out of them or Carter has had foul issues recently driving down his salary. He has 5.4 paint touches on the season and five points scored in the paint, while Charlotte is 22nd in points allowed in the paint. Even without Cole Anthony, Carter has a 1.12 fantasy point per minute and the Hornets frontcourt is just so, so bad. Carter can also hit the 3-point shot and he’s shooting 41.2% on the season. This is a player that was $7,000 14 days ago and the salary has gone way too far. 

Honorable Mention 

Pascal Siakam

Al Horford

Value Spot

Center 

Jonas Valanciunas ($8,900 DK/$8,000 FD)

Deandre Ayton ($7,400 DK/$7,700 FD)

Robert Williams ($5,600 DK) Love him on DK

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/20

Last night was a wild slate that saw a ton of star power sit out and that is a glimpse of what NBA slates can be like as we move deeper into the season. Tonight is an eight-game slate that already features a Memphis squad that is dealing with injuries so let’s get to it in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/20!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

Ja Morant ($10,200 DK/$10,000 FD) 

Morant has been popular for us this year but the return of Dillon Brooks leveled him off to some extent. However, Brooks is doubtful tonight and De’Anthony Melton is already out. With those players off the floor this year, Morant has a 35.2% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Minnesota is 13th in points in the paint allowed and no player is scoring more points from drives this season than Morant at 12.9 per night. Minnesota is right about average in points per possession allowed to the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and has held opponents to an FG% of 43.7%. Morant is fourth in points per game in the play type and he’ll have even more offensive responsibility without Brooks playing like he’s MJ. 

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200 DK/$8,200 FD)

I strongly toyed with Trae Young in this spot against the Hornets but we’ll save the Atlanta exposure for the big men late on. Brogdon gets the nuts spot of the Pelicans backcourt that we’ve attacked all season, along with being second in the league in touches per game. I would not be surprised to see Caris LeVert sit on a back-to-back since he had back surgery in the offseason, but even if he plays I’m still in. Brogdon leads in assist rate and 29.5% and he’s fifth in the league in points per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. The Pelicans allow the most points in the NBA in that play type and the third-highest FG%. Brogdon is in the definition of a smash spot. 

Patrick Beverly ($4,700 DK/$4,800 FD)

He’s technically below our threshold but he’s been so popular lately and neither site will put him over $5,000. Maybe he’s not as great of a play on FD but he continues to log vital minutes for the Minnesota team, playing 34, 34, and 28 minutes in a blowout. The Grizzlies are 29th in defensive rating and both teams are in the top 12 in possessions per game. Beverly is never going to be a big usage player (especially on this team), but the fantasy points per minute are 0.92. If he shoots decently, he’s got a great shot at 6x return again and I would suspect he’s a building block in cash games. 

Honorable Mention 

Trae Young 

Shake Milton 

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Donovan Mitchell ($8,700 DK/$8,300 FD)

I do understand that Mitchell hasn’t put that much into the fantasy scores lately, but there comes a point when a player of his caliber is just far underpriced and that may be tonight (especially on FD). Mitchell has only played 22 and 29 minutes in the past two games and has taken a combined 25 shots. While it’s a data point that the Kings give up the most real points to shooting guards, that’s not the full reason to play Mitchell. He did scorch them for 58 DraftKings points recently and still has a 34.1% usage and 1.26 fantasy points per minute this year. He’s also second in points as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll while the Kings allow the third-most points. It makes sense why Michell dropped 30+ real points on them the last time they met. You can also consider Jordan Clarkson in GPP because his shooting can’t get much worse. Eventually, that will flip. 

Josh Giddey ($6,200 DK/$6,000 FD)

The Thunder and the Celtics are on a back-to-back spot and inside the top 12 in possessions per game, so the top 13 defensive ratings for both teams don’t concern me. Giddey is still over a fantasy point per minute so far this season and that’s just with a 20.5% usage rate. You can certainly consider Lu Dort if you need the savings but Giddey still has just a 43.5% true shooting rate. We want to be there when the shots start falling because the ceiling games will start coming. Boston is 13th in rebounds per game and Giddey continues to lead the squad in front-court touches, where fantasy points get racked up. 

Honorable Mention 

Anthony Edwards/D’Angelo Russell

CJ McCollum

Value Spot 

Small Forward 

Jayson Tatum ($9,900 DK/$9,700 FD)

Tatum is back under $10,000 and I’m in. I’m not going to quote usage rates and fantasy points per minute because it’s pretty reasonable to suspect the Boston lineup to be in flux on a back-to-back. It’s possible Jaylen Brown comes back but he’s missed seven straight at this point. I would suspect a minutes limit and then Robert Williams has been out and Al Horford could sit as well. The bottom line is Tatum is going to be able to pick on this Thunder defense. He’s sixth in points scored in isolation and the man is shooting 31.3% in that play type. Oklahoma City has the 12th highest points per possession allowed in that play type and the fourth-highest 3-point frequency allowed. Tatum is tied for 11th in attempts from deep and that just raises the ceiling. 

Brandon Ingram ($8,300 DK/$7,900 FD) 

I likely don’t wind up here as this is a spot to use for a punt or Giddey on DK. We also need to keep an eye on Devonte’ Graham because if he’s out again, Josh Hart can easily take this spot. The FD price for Ingram is notable since it’s under $8,000 and Ingram still leads the team with a 31.8% usage rate. The Pacers are 19th in defensive rating and they have the seventh-worst points per possession defending shots off a screen. Ingram is third in points scored per game and he’s shooting 61.1% so far in the play type. 

Honorable Mention 

Harrison Barnes 

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

John Collins ($7,000 DK/$7,100 FD)

This is one of my favorite spots of the night and the hardest decision is playing Collins or the center we’re going to talk about. For Collins, he only has a 19.6% usage rate and 1.07 fantasy points per minute and he scores over six points per game in the paint. The Hornets are bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint and Collins also has some play-type data to back him up. He has the highest points per possession and the second-most points scored as the roll man in pick-and-roll sets. Charlotte allows the highest points per possession, the highest FG%, and the second-highest frequency of and-one plays. Add in 14.9 rebound chances for Collins per game and the spot speaks for itself.

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,400 DK/$7,200 FD)

I might get the boot for writing up Collins and JJJ on the same slate, but we mentioned the Grizzlies will be very short-handed tonight. I believe Desmond Bane is going to be popular, along with Jackson. In his 80-minute sample this season without Melton and Brooks, he has a usage rate of 32.7% and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with a true shooting of 44.3%. He’s only averaging 3.1 fouls per game, down to 4.2 per 36 minutes from 5.9 last year. The Grizz need his size on the court to help combat Karl-Anthony Towns and as a team, the Wolves are 26th in free throw attempts per game. He’s going to be a focal point and they’ll need all he can give them tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Tobias Harris 

Bobby Portis (Milwaukee feels like someone could sit)

Value Spot 

Center 

Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DK/$8,300 FD)

My disdain for Chalk Gobert has been noted at points during the past week, but the spot is undeniable and he’s very affordable on both sites. Give Sacramento credit for giving up the fewest points in the paint this year, but they don’t have anyone capable of defending Gobert. He’s second in paint points scored and first in rebounding chances per night. That’s where Sacramento gets hit as they’re 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Gobert may not have the widest skillset, but what he does extremely well meshes perfectly with what Sacramento does not do well. 

Clint Capela ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD)

For Capela, all the paint data is the same and he’s eighth inpatient points scored while being tied for sixth in rebound chances per game. He does have some success as the roll man as well but what really catches your eye is he’s fourth in the league in putback chances. The Hornets are bottom 10 in points per possession and points. What’s crazy is Capela is shooting just 39.4% in the play type. For context, he led the league in attempts last year and shot 56.5%. The question for me is can both be successful and the $14,200 combine salary would mean we’d need about 80-85 DraftKings points. In this past game, they hit 74 so I don’t think it’s out of play, but would be a GPP strategy only. I lean Collins if playing one. 

Honorable Mention 

Karl-Anthony Towns

Andre Drummond 

Value Spot 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18

There are only six games tonight for the NBA but it is a puzzle at this point. We have a lot of very important cogs on multiple teams that can change the complexion of the slate in a hurry. Let’s dive in and start outlining some scenarios to prepare for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18 and find green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

Ja Morant ($10,000 DK/$10,000 FD) 

You guys knew this one was coming as a primary ball-handler against the Clippers and Morant scored 44 DraftKings points in the last game in just under 25 minutes. Yes, his usage and fantasy points per minute have dropped a bit with Dillon Brooks back in action but it’s still over 24% and 1.33. I do not believe that Morant is going to take a backseat to Brooks forever as far as usage goes and he’s third in drives to the hoop this year. I’ll admit that the Clippers are one of the top-five teams in allowing points in the paint, but that isn’t a huge concern with Morant. He’s too talented and he has a perimeter shot this season as he’s shooting 38.2% from deep. 

The format is going to be a little different today in that we’ll lay out an elite option at each position and then talk about the If/Then scenarios, such as this first one – 

IF Stephen Curry is out for Golden State, THEN Jordan Poole is a must-play option. When Curry is off the floor this season, Poole has a 35.2% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. It wouldn’t be much of a different situation than Jalen Brunson last night, except Poole doesn’t have Kristaps Porzingis to share with as well. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and is extremely short-handed, a great spot to exploit for Poole. 

IF Spencer Dinwiddie is out as expected, THEN Raul Neto and Aaron Holiday become strong punt options. I know we don’t normally dip this low, but Dinwiddie is likely sitting the second portion of the back-to-back set. Neto and Holiday will split minutes but Neto has the advantage in usage at 19.3% and fantasy points at 0.84. We’ll look to the model to confirm. 

Honorable Mention 

Dejounte Murray 

Monte Morris 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,400 DK$8,700 FD)

With Dinwiddie expected to sit, Beal enters the conversation for me for one of the first times this season. His usage bumps up to 34.8% and the fantasy points per minute are 1.26, not to mention he’s generating 10.6 points from driving to the hoop. Miami is top-five in points in the paint allowed as well but Bam Adebayo is not guaranteed to play tonight after sitting last night. Beal will be relied on for nearly 36 minutes and he’s sitting seventh in points scored in isolation. The Heat have allowed the fifth-most points in that play type and Beal would have the ball even more without Dinwiddie. 

IF Nic Batum and/or Terrance Mann is out for the Clippers, THEN Eric Bledsoe looks like a strong candidate. They would be down to about 7-8 players and that would include Serge Ibaka and Brandon Boston. Bledsoe shot poorly last game and we have a very low minute sample with these players out. Even if Mann is back, Bledsoe is sitting at 1.02 fantasy points per minute and a 21.8% usage when the rest of the LA players are off the court. I’ll take 20 minutes in a game against the 29th ranked defensive rating and the 12th highest pace. The Clippers are one of the most important teams of the night. 

Honorable Mention

D’Angelo Russell

Shake Milton 

Small Forward 

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD)

I think we can say that Butler’s ankle is fine because he played 36 minutes last night while the Heat were short-handed. I would have some reservations about Adebayo playing since he’s missed multiple games and if he’s out, Butler has a 1.47 fantasy points per minute with Bam off the floor. The Wizards have zero chance to defend Butler tonight and they have faced the eighth-most attempts in transition. Butler is shooting 61.8% in that play type and is top 10 in points per game, raising his ceiling to 50+ DraftKings points again. Even if Bam is in, I’m still interested but could wind up spending down. 

IF Curry is out, THEN Andrew Wiggins is in the conversation. I won’t be happy about it but Andre Iguodala is already out and someone else besides Poole has to score. His usage is over 29% but his fantasy points per minute are just 0.88, very Wiggins-like. Still, he’d be a lock for 32+ minutes and could be chalky so at least in cash, it’s a consideration. 

IF OG Anunoby is out, THEN Scottie Barnes is more interesting because Anunoby leaves a giant hole in minutes. Barnes will almost never come off the floor and has a paltry 18.6% usage rate but 0.94 fantasy points per minute. He leads the team in minutes without Anunoby as well, so the sample can be trusted a bit more. Utah is a very tough spot but the minutes can’t be discounted. 

Honorable Mention 

Paul George (could be more appealing pending Clippers status)

Kyle Kuzma 

Power Forward 

This position is the worst of the night in my eyes. Tobias Harris is the default pay-up option and at almost $9,000, I can say I’m not that interested. Two games ago saw him record a 30-point double-double and he just managed to hit 51 DraftKings points. Harris only has 1.20 fantasy points per minute this year in the scenario the Sixers are in tonight. Pascal Siakam is less appealing against the Utah interior defense as well. 

As things stand, I could be looking towards a Deni Avdija for the Wizards or Otto Porter as a punt. Avdija has been playing some more minutes and last night saw him play 25 even with Beal in the lineup. For Porter, Iguodala already being ruled out is a nice boost for him as far as minutes go because he should grab a few extra. 

IF Adebayo is in and fully healthy, THEN he is a priority on FanDuel where he can be slotted in at the PF position, and even on DK, he should smash Washington in the paint with 5.9 paint points per game (Butler is even higher). Washington is 22nd in points allowed in the paint. 

Honorable Mention 

Aaron Gordon 

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK/$11,600 FD)

The Joker appears expensive and he sure is, but he’s got what I believe to be the best chance to lead the slate in fantasy points even if Curry is in. If he’s out, Jokic should be the favorite as he’s shooting 38.6% from deep and finds himself without Michael Porter Jr. and most likely Will Barton. In that scenario, Jokic has a 38.5% usage ad 1.94 fantasy points per minute. That is immense and we have punts already from the Wizards that can work with him. 

Look at it like this – Jokic has a floor of 60 in this scenario and a punt like Neto should score at least 20. That’s a floor of 80 (roughly, just for easy math) and a 6x return on a $15,200 salary is 91.2. It’s not that hard for Jokic to score 70 and Neto to hit 25. The matchup against Andre Drummond does not scare me in the least. Among players that attempt more than two field goals, Jokic has the highest points per possession in the post-up game and the second-most points per game. Philly has held opponents to a 44.7% FG% and Jokic is at 58.9%. 

IF Jarrett Allen can play, THEN he enters consideration. He’d be relied upon for big minutes and the Warriors are just 16th in points allowed in the paint. Allen is fifth in points scored in the paint and should be a double-double threat with Evan Mobley sidelined. 

Honorable Mention 

Ivica Zubac

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

We have another sprawling 11 game slate after just three games last night, so the options are much more spread out. However, we already have two players that will be massive chalk and you’re just going to lock them in cash and potentially be overweight in GPP. Let’s talk about that and a whole lot more the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/17 to carve out our paths to green screens! It’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

LaMelo Ball ($9,000 FD)

I’ve deliberately left out the DK pricing because Ball is simply too expensive, pushing $11,000. However, he’s too cheap over on FD against the Wizards. I will say they have changed so far this year, ranking in the top four in defensive rating (that’s right….the Wizards) and in the bottom half of the league in pace. However, Ball is still eighth in touches per game and he’s scoring seven points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Washington has held teams to just a 38% FG% in that play type, but that can’t last. Ball has immense upside in this spot with his 1.37 fantasy points per minute and the Hornets push the pace at third overall.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 DK/$8,600 FD)

Brogdon just keeps on trucking this season and he’s second in the league in touches on the year. The usage is 28% and he leads the team in assist rate at 32% with 1.19 fantasy points per minute. Brogdon is also fourth in unites so it’s difficult to ever truly kill you when you’re playing 37 minutes per night. Detroit is fifth-worst in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers and Brogdon is tied for the third-most points per game in that play type. Everything lines up for Brogdon to score 40+ DraftKings points.

Ricky Rubio ($6,500 DK/$6,600 FD)

The bodies are dropping in Cleveland with Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley already ruled out. They might get Kevin Love back but Rubio’s salary still stands out in a major way. With that trio off the court, Rubio has a 32.7% usage rate to lead the team and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. Now, it has to be noted that sample is only 25 minutes because those three played so much but Rubio slid into the starting lineup in the least game without Allen. He logged 37 minutes and catches a Brooklyn team that got waxed last night against the Warriors. He should be over $7,000 in this scenario.

Honorable Mention

Cole Anthony (especially if Jalen Suggs is out)

Chris Paul

Value Options

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine ($8,500 DK/$7,900 FD)

The Bulls find themselves continuing on their West Coast trek and they are also still without center Nikola Vucevic. That has been a bonus for LaVine as he has a 36.1% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute in that scenario. If there is a spot where he can flash some ceiling, the Trail Blazers are it since they sit 24th in defensive rating. They are not giving up a lot in transition right now but I’m not convinced we should believe that a bottom-six defensive rating can hold transition chances to the third-lowest FG%. LaVine has scored the fourth-most points in that play type so far and he should flirt with 50 DraftKings points.

Cade Cunningham ($6,100 DK/$5,800 FD)

Some will call this chasing the first big fantasy game of Cunningham’s career but I’m here to tell you he’s got many more on the horizon. I don’t think he’ll be too popular because of the next person we’ll talk about but Cunningham is starting to see his shooting even out. He went 10-20 from the field last time and that second number is just as important as the first. Cunningham is the franchise and the more comfortable he gets, the more games we’ll see with 16+ field goal attempts. His usage is up to 28.6% and that is tied with Jerami Grant for the team lead. His shooting still has a ways to go because the true shooting is at 43.8%. Ride the wave and know that you’re on the front of it and he’s likely $7,500 for a chunk of this season.

Jalen Brunson ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD)

The reason it’s hard to gauge Cunningham for popularity is right here. Luka Doncic is out or this game and Brunson is carrying an absurdly low salary on both sites. He leads the team with minutes without Doncic on the floor and has a 27.6% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy point per minute. The matchup isn’t spectacular with the Suns sitting sixth in defensive rating but they are fourth in pace so far and that is notable. Really, the matchup is far less important than situation for Dallas here and you lock and don’t look back. Even in GPP, it’s going to be hard to argue for the fade.

Honorable Mention

Anthony Edwards

Tyler Herro (he could break the slate if Butler remains out)

Value Options

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,600 DK/$8,100 FD)

Ingram was on a “minutes limit” this past game and would up playing 32, so I think it’s safe to say that’s not a huge concern there. It sounds tough but their season is already on life support with their start and Ingram has to help string some wins together. On the season, Ingram has a 32.2% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute so far and without Zion Williamson, he can shoot at will like he did last game with 23 attempts. His outlook would be boosted even further if Jimmy Butler remains out and the Heat have fallen to ninth in defensive rating.

Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,800 DK/$5,200 FD)

We don’t need to spend much time here because THT is going to be a massively popular player once again. Slotting him in with Brunson and Porzingis leaves you over $6,400 per player on DraftKings and that’s a good start for cash. Horton-Tucker played 37 minutes this past game so we can easily expect 30+ tonight. He’s seen very strong usage rate at 26.5% and 1.10 fantasy point per minute. He only needs 30 DraftKings points to hit value at 6x and both teams are in the top 12 in pace.

Honorable Mention

Miles Bridges

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Value Options

Power Forward

DeMar DeRozan ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD)

If not playing LaVine (and even if you are), DDR is a great option once again. He’s featuring a 32.3% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute while Vucevic is off the floor and Portland is 19th in points allowed in the paint. DDR has averaged a little over 20 points in drives to the hoop and pull-up shots, which meshes nicely with Portland’s below average defense. He’s been such a major component to this Chicago squad and has surpassed 50 DraftKings points in the past couple of games, proving he has the upside to justify this salary.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400 DK/$8,800 FD)

The DraftKings pricing is especially terrible as he went for over 55 DraftKings points last game, is without Luka, and his salary rose $400. Look, as much as we tend to dislike Porzingis chalk, there’s not getting around it tonight. He and Brunson are the first two players into the cash lineup and the real question is GPP exposure. Without Luka, KP is averaging 1.47 fantasy points per minute. Now, I don’t want anyone to get upset because this isn’t a shot. I know we’re going to hear in the Discord how well KP has been playing. That is true, but his true shooting without Luka so far in 60 minutes is 67.9%. That’s ridiculously high. On this size of a slate, you can argue that KP is not needed for GPP and that could be the route I take (meaning I’d be underweight to the field).

Honorable Mention

Julius Randle

Wendell Carter Jr.

Value Options

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400 DK/$9,800 FD)

This is a great spot for Towns as the teams are ninth and eighth in pace and the Kings are 21st in defensive rating. While KAT is not a big paint player, that may not be a big deal. Sacramento is firs in points allowed in the paint but he’ll be able to drag Richaun Holmes away from the basket. KAT only has a 25.6% usage rate but 1.28 fantasy points per minute and he’s top 12 in rebounding chances per game. This is one of the more elite game environments of the night and we should pay attention.

Deandre Ayton ($6,200 DK/$7,800 FD)

He’s not quite as appealing on FD but Ayton is very underpriced on DK considering he played 32 minutes in his return to the lineup. He’s never going to be a high usage player at just 19.8% but the fantasy points per minute is at 1.15. Ayton is also 10th in rebounding chances on the season and Dallas is 27th in paint touches. I’m strongly considering adding him to the core group for DK cash games because I would be surprised if he’s not popular on that site.

Honorable Mention

Christian Wood

Bam Adebayo (Just like Herro, takes a giant bump if Butler is out)

Value Options

ou can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/14

We’re back for the Sunday edition of the Gems and it’s not much of a surprise that we only have five games on the slate. After all, NFL Sundays are not the best NBA days. That doesn’t mean it’s not a fun slate and we already have a star player ruled out, so let’s roll with the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/14!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

James Harden ($10,800 DK/$9,600 FD)

Harden has continued to look better and better and the fantasy production has followed. He’s logged a triple-double and scored 39 real points in the past two games and this spot is a great matchup to keep the momentum going. The Thunder are just average in defensive rating and both teams are in the top half of the league in pace. Oklahoma City also gives up the third-highest points per possession in isolation and Harden sits second in points scored from the play type. His 1.30 fantasy points per minute aren’t that far behind his teammate Kevin Durant and the salary will only continue to rise. 

Lonzo Ball ($6,600 DK/$6,100 FD)

We know we attack the Clippers with primary ball handlers and Ball actually leads the team in touches per game, not to mention he led again in the first game without Nikola Vucevic. The usage is 20.2% and the fantasy points per minute are 0.97 which is solid and the price works with multiple builds. The Clippers are seventh in pace and will be on a back-to-back. The position overall is a bit of an odd one. If you’re not spending on Harden or Stephen Curry, there are not a lot of pay-up options in the best spots or salaries. I’ll likely either land with Ball, a top-end player, or just punt altogether. 

Honorable Mention 

Chris Paul 

Reggie Jackson 

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

C.J. McCollum ($7,600 DK/$7,500 FD)

Damian Lillard has already been ruled out for tonight. We’re not going to spend a ton of time here because this is the chalk of the day and neither site found it necessary to put McCollum at over $8,000 for salary. Since the start of last year, McCollum has had a 31.4% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute while Dame has been off the floor. That has come with a true shooting rate of 48.9% which is far below a player of McCollum’s caliber. Lock him in for cash, be overweight in GPP, and move on. 

Will Barton ($6,800 DK/$6,700 FD)

Barton absolutely disappeared in the last game and scored just 12 DK points in almost 35 minutes, which seems borderline impossible. He went 2-11 from the floor and it was a disaster. That’s a good time to get back to him because A. everyone is playing McCollum and B. Barton is still the secondary player while Michael Porter remains out. The previous two games before that saw Barton exceed 45 DraftKings points and he has a 22.1% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. Portland is 17th in defensive rating and 10th in pace, making this a green spot for the Nuggets to put up some points. 

Honorable Mention 

Zach LaVine

Devin Booker

Value Spot 

Small Forward

Mile Bridges ($7,800 DK/$8,300 FD)

The last time bridges saw the Golden State Warriors defense, he went for nearly 60 DraftKings points. I don’t think that happens again since he had to hit five 3’s to get it done, but he’s back under $8,000 on DraftKings. So far, Golden State has been where offenses have gone to die. They are first in defensive rating and by a significant margin as well. However, both teams are in the top-five in pace and the last game got out of hand when Charlotte went almost nine minutes without a field goal. As good as Golden State is, that’s not going to happen again. Bridges has 1.15 fantasy points per minute so far this year and the big man can navigate the Warrior defense with a diverse skill set. 

Norman Powell ($5,300 DK/$6,000 FD)

I can easily see Powell becoming chalk tonight as well and I’m a little less sure of it than McCollum. I feel better about McCollum having periphery stats but Powell can fill the bucket in a hurry and there are going to be shots to go around in this offense. Dating back to last season, Powell has a 27% usage when Lillard is off the floor for a 1.00 fantasy point per minute. We should expect 32 minutes or more, and likely at last 16 shot attempts. That’s plenty at this salary. 

Honorable Mention 

Kevin Durant 

Josh Giddey 

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

Draymond Green ($6,200 DK/$7,000 FD)

A high-paced game environment is always one that is interesting for Green and the salary may be the best it’s been all season long. He’s one of the only players that can average over a fantasy point per minute on just a 13.2% usage rate but Green has done that for years. He can always threaten a triple-double (though it’s less likely than it used to be) as well. The veteran is 12th in passes made per game and potential assists so once you kick in 13.6 rebounding chances per night, the floor is solid. Any points that he scores over 5-6 is going to be a bonus. 

This position is not great tonight so we could be punting it pending on how the day goes. 

Honorable Mention 

DeMar DeRozan

Nicholas Batum

Value Spot 

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($11,600 DK/$11,000 FD)

If I can fit Jokic in with McCollum without sacrificing all that much, it’s happening tonight. I’ve let other options take the wheel in the past couple of slates that Joker was on and that has been a mistake. Without Porter Jr. on the floor this season, Jokic has racked up 2.11 fantasy points per minute and a 34.1% usage rate. The 134-minute sample size could be a lot smaller and he’s among the highest priorities of the slate against the soft Portland interior defense. It’s Big Honey SZN! 

Ivica Zubac ($5,000 DK/$5,600 FD)

The big man for the Clippers has been playing well lately, flirting with a 1.00 fantasy point per minute over the past couple of weeks. He’s never going to be a primary option for LA but the Bulls interior got a lot worse without Vucevic in the lineup. Zubac already averages almost 15 rebounding chances and he’s top 15 in paint touches as well, so the double-double potential is certainly there. The Clips did play last night but Chicago still has centers that play so Zubac will need to be on the floor. 

Honorable Mention

Christian Wood

Frank Kaminsky/JaVale McGee

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/11

The NBA has been a see-saw as far as the schedule goes the past few days and we’re back to a short slate with just three games. If you thought last night was chalky, tonight is likely to be even more so. It appears likely that Jimmy Butler will not be available for the Heat after he left last night’s game with a sprained ankle and Philadelphia is still missing a ton of players. We’ll walk you through our approach in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/11 and discuss our favorite options on the slate to find the green screens again!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Definitely balanced considering the only player on this slate above 10K is Paul George. Plenty of value to be had in the opening game of the slate, so that’s where I’ll be heading and getting different elsewhere.

Adam: It may sound boring, but I’m likely just jamming in Sixers once again. The status of Seth Curry and Tobias Harris isn’t known yet but Philly will almost surely have a 7-8 man rotation. It’s almost a carbon copy of Tuesday where I played 3-4 Sixers then stacked the late game that is not the Jazz game.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: If playing one, it has to be Paul George. However, multiple targets interest me in the 8K range, including Andre Drummond, Fred VanVleet, and Bam Adebayo.

Adam: By default to some extent, it’s Paul George. He’s the only player available over $10,000 on DraftKings but in addition, he has a 31.1% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. The play-type data is encouraging as well since Miami gives up the second-most points in isolation and PG13 is 10th in points scored from isolation and he’s only shooting 41.9% so far. Honorable mention goes to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro because it would sure appear that Jimmy Butler is out tonight.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: As much as it pains me to say, I’m likely not playing Domantas Sabonis on tonight’s slate. Myles Turner is a much better matchup for Rudy Gobert, and I wanted limited exposure to what should be an easy Utah win.

Adam: Domantas Sabonis, simply because he relies on paint touches and being the roll man in the pick and roll. Facing Rudy Gobert in the paint in Utah is a bad spot, as Gobert is top 10 defending the roll man.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Andre Drummond and Precious Achiuwa. With Pascal Siakam likely resting on the second half of a back-to-back, Achiuwa will get even more minutes than the 25 he saw less than 24 hours ago.

Adam: The duo of George and Furkan Korkmaz, pending the Philly lineup. Kork went full Along Came Polly last game and you never go full Along Came Polly. This is a great spot to hit some shots because the Raptors are top 10 in 3-point frequency given up and FG%. If Kork isn’t as appealing, Nic Batum stands out against the team with the highest frequency of 3-point attempts.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Bam Adebayo carries the Miami Heat to a win against the LA Clippers to avoid going 0-2 at Staples Center, despite Paul George having his way on offense with Jimmy Butler nursing an ankle injury from last night’s loss to the Lakers.

Adam: Andre Drummond posts a Barbara Walters game with 20/20 and scores the most DraftKings points of any player not named Paul George and the double center approach on DK wins tournaments.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/10

Slates like this can be very difficult with so many options. If every team has roughly eight players to consider, we now have 208 players to fill 8-9 slots, depending on the site you play. It’s totally understandable to be overwhelmed so there are two things that help me. First, take 4-5 games and just throw them away. Pretend they aren’t there and make peace with not playing anyone from that game. Second, remember that every other player in your contest has the same slots to fill you do. It’s Wet Wednesday in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/10 and we have a ton of paths to go over to chase green screens again – let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guard 

Ja Morant ($9,900 DK/$9,100 FD)

It is not a surprise but this slate is loaded. Every single point guard above $10,000 on DK is viable, and I wouldn’t fight you on it. With 13 games you expect some great spots but there is a laundry list of games that look fun for fantasy and honestly, what a night to have League Pass. Among the plethora of high-end options at the point guard spot, Morant facing off against LaMelo Ball catches your eye. You can play either or both but Morant has a slight edge for me. Charlotte is second in possessions per game, bottom-five in defensive rating, and top-five in pace. That pushes this environment to an elite level and Morant is at 1.30 fantasy points per minute and has a 33.1% usage rate. Morant has added more perimeter shooting and attacks the basket relentlessly. With the Hornets sitting 29th in points allowed in the paint, this is a dynamite spot for the young guard because 59% of his points come from driving to the basket. 

Jordan Poole ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD)

I’m sure the field will want to play Steph Curry to some extent after he went nuclear on the Hawks, scoring almost 90 DK points. Of course, that is well within your options but getting some Poole exposure is a strong way of getting a piece of the Warriors guards against the Wolves. Both of these teams are in the top 12 in pace and Minnesota is slowly starting to slip in defensive rating, outside of the top 10. Poole has the second-highest usage on the squad at 27.1% and he and Steph are first and third in field goals attempted off a screen. Poole is only shooting 37.9% but still has the fifth-most points. Minnesota has the eighth highest points per possession allowed and is allowing a 50% field goal percentage. 

Ricky Rubio ($5,200 DK/$5,500 FD)

Collin Sexton is out for the foreseeable future for the up-and-coming Cavaliers team. They have been a very pleasant surprise so far and Rubio is going to be a stabilizing factor in this offense just as he has been. The DK pricing is disrespectful and it’s possible Rubio is going to be heavy chalk even on this big of a slate. We shouldn’t expect him to score 60 DraftKings points as he did in the last game but he still boasts a 26.5% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute when Sexton is off the floor. Washington has a better defensive rating than we are accustomed to but they still rank eighth in possessions per game. They also rank 18th in points allowed in the paint and Rubio is driving to the basket over 13 times per game. Rubio has a higher assist rate than Darius Garland without Sexton and even if the shooting comes down to Earth a bit, he’s still a strong play. 

Honorable Mention

LaMelo Ball 

Dejounte Murray 

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Zach LaVine ($7,600 DK/$8,000 FD)

Understandably, LaVine isn’t getting quite the same attention as he was last year because the Bulls are a more complete team this year and they’re playing well. Having said that, seeing him under $8,000 on DK is jarring and Dallas is 17th in defensive rating. Additionally, the real points are still over 26 per night and the role hasn’t really shifted all that much. The usage is still 30.8% and the fantasy points per minute are 1.16. Generally, I haven’t played him much this year but under $8,000 doesn’t seem like accurate pricing. 

Fred VanVleet ($7,600 DK/$8,200 FD)

It can be hard to find many players that play the number of minutes that FVV does and that’s valuable in and of itself. It’s interesting that VanVleet is eighth in drives per game but among players that are in the top 20, he has the highest pass percentage. Only Malcolm Brogdon passes more from driving to the hoop and that raises the bar for his assists in this game because Boston is allowing a 3-point attempt over 41% of the time. VanVleet has 1.06 fantasy points per minute and the stability that we all crave on any slate, let alone on this large. Boston sitting third in possessions per game which are going to help this game along as far as pace goes as well. 

Cade Cunningham ($5,200 DK/$4,800 FD)

It has been a choppy start for the number one pick in this past draft, but past the poor shooting, there are very encouraging signs. Among their starting lineup, Cunningham is tied for the highest assist rate at 18.3% and leads the team by 3.6% in usage rate and 28.9%. We’ve seen what he can do for fantasy when he scores points with one game approaching 40 DraftKings points. Regardless of what you think the talent level is, there is no way he continues to have a 34.6% true shooting rate. There was nothing in his game in college that would suggest he’s not going to be at least an average to a good shooter in the NBA. He’s starting to find it to some extent with 16 and 17 points in the past two and the Rockets are sixth in possessions per game, adding more opportunity for Cunningham. He’s already 11th in spot-up field goal attempts already and the Rockets have held opponents to under 37%, a mark that won’t last. 

Honorable Mention 

Anthony Edwards

Bradley Beal 

Value Spot 

Small Forward 

Kevin Durant ($10,900 DK/$10,500 FD)

The duo of Durant and James Harden are in the top three in points from isolation plays, which the Magic have defended well to this point. Those numbers are about to take a hit tonight because Durant should be able to have a field day against the team that is 26th in defensive rating this season. KD might seem a hair pricey but with Harden struggling to find his form and Kyrie Irving absent, Durant has taken on a 32.7% usage rate and 1.44 fantasy points per minute. He has the most points from a pull-up shot per game in the league and will add to that tonight. 

Josh Giddey ($6,300 DK/$6,000 FD)

The rookie for the Thunder is super appealing in this spot with both teams sitting 20th or lower in defensive rating. They are also in the top half of the league in pace so even though both teams have been bad, this game could be full of fantasy goodness. Giddey is still struggling with his shot to some extent with a 46.1% true shooting rate but he’s also second on the team in fantasy points per minute at 1.04. He’s driving to the hoop over 13 times per game and already averaging over 30 DK per night. On the nights where the shot falls, he can flirt with a triple-double and the game environment makes him super appealing. 

Will Barton ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD)

The wing for the Nuggets makes his second straight appearance in the Gems and there is a chance he is the lone man standing in this offense. There is a strong chance that Nikola Jokic will be suspended for his role in the dust-up between the Heat and Nuggets in the last game. Even if Jokic is active, we witnessed the ceiling for Barton last game as he easily said past 40 DraftKings points. With Michael Porter Jr. off the floor, Barton has 1.12 fantasy points per minute and Indiana has struggled on defense so far this season. They are 12th in possessions per game and Barton is the number two option in the offense. If he’s going to continue to play 35 minutes per game, he’s going to produce almost every time out. 

Note – Porter Jr. is listed on the initial injury report as questionable, which seems to fly in the face of Mike Malone saying he would be out for a while. 

Honorable Mention 

Jayson Tatum

Miles Bridges

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

Julius Randle ($10,300 DK/$9,500 FD) 

The big man for the Knicks is likely just a bit too pricey for me on DK but he’s very affordable on FD. So far this year, he’s been a monster with a 28.1% usage and a 24.7% assist rate to accrue 1.30 fantasy points per minute. The Bucks will continue to be short-handed by all indications and while Giannis does lurk on the opposite side, Milwaukee is on a back-to-back set and they’ve had their issues in the early going. You know the minutes are always going to be there and he’s over 36 this year while shooting 36.4% from deep. 

Evan Mobley ($7,000 DK/$6,700 FD)

Quietly, the loss of Sexton has a strong positive effect for Mobley as well since it bumps him up almost 3% in usage and almost 0.20 in fantasy points per minute. That’s a good spot to be in since he averages 4.5 touches on the elbow, ninth in the league. Not only that, he sits fourth in points per game from that metric and is shooting over 57% and 73% of his points come from there. The Wizards don’t have a strong big man that can deal with that and even if they did, Jarrett Allen is going to eat up some resources defensively. Washington sitting 18th in points in the paint allowed is a big boost for Mobley and the price is perfectly fine. 

Bobby Portis ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)

I’ll bet Jaren Jackson Jr. for the Grizzlies is popular against the Hornets frontcourt and that’s fine but Portis is cheaper and he’s in the starting lineup for the Bucks. When he’s under $6,000 and flirting with 30 minutes, I love playing him because he contributes in legit every category. He can hit a three, block a shot or two, and he’s been good for a steal per game so far. These are the kind of players that we want because even if the shot is iffy, he can still help your lineup. To wit, before last night’s game Portis was at a 27.6% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute despite a 39.8% true shooting rate. 

Honorable Mention 

Domantas Sabonis (gets a bump if Jokic is out)

OG Anunoby 

Value Spot 

Center 

Jonas Valanciunas ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD) 

This is a monster spot of JoVal as the Thunder have one of the worst interiors in the league. They rank 21st in points allowed in the paint and 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint. On top of that, JoVal is in the top 10 in paint touches and rebounding chances on the season. Additionally, he is seventh in attempts inside the paint with no real resistance from the Thunder. Brandon Ingram has been out of the lineup for the past five games now and without Ingram on the floor, JoVal has 1.36 fantasy points per minute and is playing 32-35 minutes per night. The salary is up there but justified for a player that has an outside shot at a 20/20 game. 

Bam Adebayo ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD)

Big men have been hitting the Lakers hard so far this year and Adebayo is one of the more talented ones in the league. He’s sporting a 26.6% usage rate and 1.20 fantasy points per minute and both squads are in the top-five in rebounds per game. Bam is going to be needed to hang with Anthony Davis down low and the Lakers are 16th in paint points allowed. Bam is in the top 15 in paint touches so far and is ninth in rebounding chances per game. That’s higher than any Laker and Bam is also 12th in points from being the roll man in the pick and roll. Only two teams have allowed a higher field goal percentage than LA to that play type. 

Honorable Mention 

Jarrett Allen (he or Mobley is very appealing)

Christian Wood 

Value Spot 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life