NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/20

We’re back on the weird part of the NBA schedule that only features three games so the options are much more condensed. That means we’re doing the Roundtable approach and one aspect to note is things could change significantly after this is published, specifically with the Pacers. Having said that, it’s the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/20 so let’s dive into the Wet Wednesday edition – Let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Stars and scrubs, to a certain extent. I’ll be playing Doncic with two of Randle, Ingram, and Booker.

Adam: As we stand right now, I fully expect this to be a slate to try and squeeze in two studs/high-priced players. We have three very strong values tonight that make it very easy to play with different builds and different studs.  

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Devin Booker. Look, it’s far from an ideal matchup considering the Mavericks rank 4th in defensive rating and allow the fewest points in the NBA to opposing secondary ball handlers, but Booker’s talent is simply too much to pass up on in the best game environment on the slate.

Adam: Lock may be the wrong term, but I have my eyes on Luka Doncic in this spot. The Mavericks are facing the Phoenix Suns and with the Mavs playing last night, we could see someone sit for them. Doncic gets a massive pace-up spot as Phoenix is sixth in pace compared to 29th for Dallas. Even though the Suns are second in defensive rating, they allow the eighth-most points per game to ball handlers in the pick-and-roll. Doncic sits third in points per game in that play type, lending some weight to him having a ceiling game. 

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Steph Curry; same strategy as the other night for me, fading Curry for Doncic allows me to use my value plays to get exposure to the Warriors offense.

Adam: Unless the Pacers give us reasons to change, Domantas Sabonis. Last night saw both Jeremy Lamb and Malcolm Brogdon return to the lineup and with everyone but Myles Turner active, the upside simply is not there for Sabonis with a 1.26 points per minute and 21.6% usage rate. 

Update – Sabonis looks extremely questionable tonight after an ankle sprain last night. If he’s out, I do agree with Ghost that Curry would be the fade for my with my Warriors exposure coming from different routes paired with what is expected to be Pacers value.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Luka Doncic and Bismack Biyombo. I’ll side with Luka simply because of the edge that raw points gives us on a small slate, while Biyombo has been efficient off the bench and will check in early and often for a foul-prone JaVale McGee.

Adam: We’re going right back to the well with Klay Thompson and Jonathan Kuminga from the Warriors. Klay scored over 35 DraftKings points and his salary went down (why I can’t tell you) and Kuminga didn’t move. We also learned that Kuminga will continue to start while Draymond Green is out and while there should be inconsistency expected with a 19-year old, he’s $4,300. That duo plus either JaVale McGee or Bismack Biyombo from the Suns allows over $7,200 for the last five players on DraftKings. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Brandon Ingram drops 25 at the Garden and leads the Pelicans to a win over the Knicks.
Adam: Luka Doncic has a 30-point triple-double as the Mavericks upset the Suns in Dallas.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/16

With the NFL playoffs in full swing on Sunday, the NBA countered with just three games so this is not a slate to play cash games. Ghost and I are going with the roundtable approach for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/16 to help find the green screens tonight! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: I’ll be taking a balanced approach with one stud at the top of the pricing grid, with most of my exposure being in the Sacramento/Houston game.

Adam: I’m planning on going right back to the well as far as stacking up the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings, at least as much as we can. No player is more than $8,100 on DraftKings and we’ll have a couple of value pieces along the way to fit players. It’s fairly easy to fit at least 4-5 players from this game. 

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: One of De’Aaron Fox or Tyrese Haliburton paired with Christian Wood.

Adam: The duo of De’Aaron Fox and Christian Wood. While Nikola Jokic is on the slate, the game stack from Sacramento is just way too appealing and these players can match what Jokic puts out on a point per dollar basis. 

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Karl-Anthony Towns just doesn’t carry a lot of intrigue for me in this game, and while he can certainly exploit a Golden State defense that will be without Draymond Green, he simply does not carry the same upside as Donovan Mitchell for far less salary, or Nikola Jokic at the top of the pricing grid.

Adam: While Nikola Jokic is on the slate, the game stack from Sacramento is just way too appealing and some players can match what Jokic puts out on a point per dollar basis. I’m never going to say that you can’t play him, but the Fox/Wood combo costs $16,100 and can score around 100 DraftKings points with potential for 100+. If Jokic has a normal game of 60-65 DraftKings points, I’d rather have the combo. 

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Two of Fox, Haliburton, Wood, and Donovan Mitchell will be optimal tonight, and I’ll be looking to get three of them with Jordan Poole as my main value.

Adam: Jordan Poole and the Fox/Wood duo. With Steph Curry and Draymond Green sitting out for the Warriors and Klay Thompson still not playing his full complement of minutes, Poole has a 32.1% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. He’s not even $6,000 on DraftKings and fits perfectly in the stack. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Jordan Poole carries the Warriors to a win behind his 30-5-5 performance.

Adam: The Kings and Rockets combine for over 255 real points running it back from Friday night.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15

We get nine games tonight but I’ll immediately put a word of caution here – of the 18 teams in action tonight, nine of them played last night which will likely throw a major wrench into this slate. Things will almost certainly be a moving target through the day and up to lock, so just be aware. Let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15 and start highlighting paths to green and be ready to adjust as needed!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Games To Target 

Trail Blazers at Wizards 

Blazers – It’s a rare night for me but Jusuf Nurkic is a strong target despite carrying a salary of nearly $8,000. The Blazers are still missing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Norman Powell which means Nurkic has a 24.3% usage rate and 1.29 points per minute. That latter mark leads the team and the 29% assist rate is extremely high as well. Washington sitting in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint is a big bump for him, even though he hasn’t been the heaviest paint player in the league. 

The decisions start to come in with a player like Anfernee Simons, who is finally priced up and likely has very little ceiling left at his salary. I’m more likely to go towards Nassir Little or Ben McLemore, as both players have at least 0.78 points per minute and will be called upon to play a ton of minutes tonight.

Wizards – We talked last time about Spencer Dinwiddie playing his first back-to-back and it resulted in a very mediocre fantasy game. Now that he’s more on a normal schedule and facing the team that has the worst defensive rating in basketball, I’d play him ahead of Simons about 90 times out of 100. Bradley Beal is out and Dinwiddie has 1.16 fantasy points per minute, a 26% usage rate, and a 36.6% assist rate. Kyle Kuzma has shown upside and does have 1.14 fantasy points per minute, but the salary can be tough to swallow. You want 50 DraftKings points and the path for Kuzma to get there is narrow, even in the matchup. 

Bulls at Celtics 

Bulls – This is a projection but last night saw Zach LaVine hurt his knee four minutes into the game. He fouled, left the game, and then was ruled out shortly after so the assumption would have to be that he doesn’t suit up tonight. He also is scheduled for an MRI today so the writing is on the wall, although the Bulls do think he dodged a serious injury.

The chalkiest player on the slate would potentially be DeMar DeRozan because, without LaVine and Alex Caruso on the floor, DDR has a 41.4% usage rate and 1.32 points per minute with a true shooting of just 51.7%. For context, his seasonal rate is 57.8% and he’s priced as LaVine will be active. On the less expensive side, Lonzo Ball and Nikola Vucevic (under $9,000 is still a strong salary)both have usages of 16.9% and 29% respectively and both are over 1.02 points per minute. Boston is 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint, which helps Vuc quite a bit. 

Celtics – As of now, the Celtics are healthy but the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is quite cheap as both are under $9,500. Tatum is always my favorite when picking and holds a lead in the fantasy points per minute and usage. They would be my only two targets as a run-back unless someone sits out (possibly Al Horford but Robert Williams isn’t coming cheap). 

Pelicans at Nets 

Pelicans – This is quite the spot for Jonas Valanciunas because the Nets have zero interior presence without LaMarcus Aldridge and My Name Is Jonas has 9.3 paint touches per game and 9.5 points in the paint per game, both inside the top 10 in the league. He’s also one of just four players that have more than 20 rebound chances per game and he’s barely over $8,000. Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart can be considered, but are getting up there in salary. JoVal is only $1,300 more than Hart and that’s an easy pick for me. 

Nets – There will be no Kyrie Irving so it’s way easier to play Kevin Durant or James Harden. The latter has been coming out of his funk, getting to the line (up to third in FTA across the league), and leading the league in points scored in isolation. The Pelicans are in the bottom eight in points per possession against that play type so I give him a slight lean since we’ve been playing guards against Pelicans all year long. In GPP-only, Patty Mills has fallen to a salary that you can throw him in as a cheap guard. The Pelicans allow the second-highest FG% from 3-point distance and Mills is shooting 42.1%, the highest among any player in the top-25 in 3-point attempts. 

Note – Instead of teams to monitor in the article, we’ll just have to pay attention to the injury reports with all the back-to-backs tonight. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12

We’ve got a smaller five-game slate in front of us tonight and it features one of the games that have the most sizzle all season as the Warriors take on the Bucks in Milwaukee. We also have a decimated Portland squad to pull value from so let’s get rolling in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12 to find our paths to green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Teams To Target 

Brooklyn Nets – It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will miss again, and it’s possible Nic Claxton does as well. If they are both out, Day’Ron Sharpe is going to be very popular as he’s played at least 24 minutes in the past two games and he’s scored over 25 DraftKings points in those games. Sharpe is only $3,300 and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 19th in points in the paint and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Kyrie Irving will almost surely be out on the back-to-back (there are reports that Brooklyn can just pay a fine and let him play at home) but I wonder if James Harden sits. He played deep into garbage time last night in what can only really be described as coaching malpractice. The Nets were flirting with a 40 point lead and Harden was still out there while Kevin Durant sat the whole quarter. It’s far from set in stone, but let’s see what happens. KD would be the pay-up option if he’s riding solo tonight. 

Potential Run-Backs – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey

Portland Trail Blazers – They are missing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Anfernee Simons, Norman Powell, and Larry Nance Jr. That is an immense amount of the team and the headliner is likely to be Dennis Smith Jr. at just $4,000. Without the trio of guards, DSJ has played 230 minutes with 0.95 points per minute and a 22.9% usage rate. He’s going to have to play nearly 35 minutes, if not a couple more and you simply don’t pass on that value. Nassir Little, Ben McLemore, and Jusuf Nurkić all need to be considered as it is all hands on deck but a potential DSJ/Sharpe combo leaves a lot of room to build. 

Run Backs – Nikola Jokic, TBD on Will Barton’s status 

Memphis Grizzlies – Ja Morant is on one right now as this man is out there staring down kids for wearing the wrong jersey in Memphis. If you haven’t followed it, it’s actually a pretty funny situation that led to Ja and the Grizzlies offering a trade-in for a Morant or Jaren Jackson jersey, free of charge. Anyways, the Wolves play at the sixth-fastest pace and are 22nd in points allowed in the paint. No player scores more buckets from driving to the hoop than Morant at over 13 points per game, and he’s still under $9,500. Desmond Bane will be looking for a bounce-back game after the last time out and can shoot the lights out any night. Not having Dillon Brooks for the foreseeable future helps solidify Morant especially at nearly 1.40 points per minute. If Steven Adams is back, I’m interested because he’ll be needed to help combat the size of Minnesota’s frontcourt. If not, Brandon Clarke is still a fine play, even though he’s getting up there in salary. 

Run-Backs – Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards

Note – The Warriors/Bucks game is difficult to truly stack. The Bucks side of things is very pricey since Jrue Holiday is out and I’m leaning towards playing Nikola Jokic in that range ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo. I will say that no Draymond Green makes it more difficult for the Warriors to defend Giannis, but the Portland interior should get clowned by Jokic after a horrific loss in LA. The best exposure from this game is Steph Curry, not because he triple-doubled last game. Milwaukee allows a 3-point attempt at a 46.3% frequency, the second-most in the league. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12

It’s Wednesday and you know what that means! We have a large NBA slate in front of us and I’m sure things will change a lot from now until tipoff with 18 teams in action. That doesn’t mean we can’t start carving out paths to green and highlighting spots we like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Nets at Bulls

Nets – On the Brooklyn side, we need a lot of news. Kyrie Irving had his ankle rolled up last game but he says he’s going to play. James Harden missed the last game with a knee injury but did not get an MRI so that doesn’t appear to be serious either. However, if one of these players were to miss, it turns Kevin Durant into one of the chalkier options on the slate, and rightfully so. KD is a player that has 70 DK point upside when all three men aren’t on the floor and his usage is around 30%. If all three suit up, this side would mostly be a fade for me outside of possibly a value piece. Nic Claxton is questionable with LaMarcus Aldridge already ruled out so there could be minutes on the interior. We’ll see who the model likes. 

Bulls – They are extremely affordable on FD but on DK, Nikola Vucevic has to have some of our attention. He’s $9,100 but will face almost no resistance on the interior and on the glass. Brooklyn is 15th in rebounds allowed in the paint but without two of their primary big men, that will take a hit. Vucevic is sixth in rebounds per game and rebound chances along with 1.20 fantasy points per minute and that leads the team. His true shooting is still only 49% this year and that has nowhere to go but up. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are much easier to play on FD tonight but they are still in play for DK as well. 

Lakers at Kings 

Lakers – As it has been for a few weeks, LeBron James is one of the most appealing targets on the entire slate. There is still some volatility involved and his rebounds and assists can sometimes disappoint, but he’s also up to 29 points per game and suddenly, that’s second in the league behind on Durant. Without Anthony Davis, he’s up to a 31.9% usage rate and 1.57 fantasy points per minute. We’ve hammered matchups against the Kings all season as they are the perfect mix of fast pace and poor defense, so there is not much of a reason to stop now. There really isn’t another strong angle to get Lakers exposure as Malik Monk is wildly expensive and Russell Westbrook just hasn’t been worth a nearly five-figure investment. 

Kings – The Lakers were playing a little better with LeBron at center, and then they got scorched for 127 points by the Grizzlies. That marked three straight games they have given up at least 114 points so any hope they had some things figured out on the defensive end seems gone. The decision between De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton has gotten much closer lately and Haliburton might be the more stable option. Since Fox has returned from a span in the health protocols, Haliburton has 1.07 fantasy points per minute compared to 0.95 for Fox. The true shooting rate is 63.8% for Haliburton so that is helping but the usage is so spread out with much of Sacramento, it can be frustrating. The frontcourt is wildly unpredictable so I’m not likely to go there. 

Hornets at 76ers

Hornets – I don’t think I could risk him in cash, but LaMelo Ball has to be interesting for GPP as he’s under $9,000 on DK tonight. We’ve talked about his minutes being all over the place but his upside has few rivals under $9,000. He’s not driving as much as you may think at just 13.5 times per game so that helps avoid the teeth of Philly’s defense and on the year his fantasy points per minute are at 1.38, leading the team by a lot. Terry Rozier has been running hot but it’s not difficult to see Miles Bridges having some issues in the matchup and Rozier could have more attempts on the night, not to mention he’s at a 23% usage rate on the year. 

76ers – If there’s a time to pay up for Joel Embiid, it’s this one. The Flow Chart is in full effect as it’s a big man against the Hornets and Biid has scored over 30 real points in seven games straight. He’s sitting on a 35.8% usage and 1.54 fantasy points per minute plus he’s leading the league in post-up points per game. Charlotte is 29th in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint and this is a smash spot for Embiid no matter what. On top of all that, Seth Curry is questionable and if he misses, it’s just more on Embiid’s plate with a usage pushing 40%. 

Teams to Monitor 

Wizards – Bradley Beal was placed in protocols again yesterday, which is a bit odd since he was just in them but we’ll see what happens there. If Beal remains out, DK decided that it would not be a good idea to change the salary of Spencer Dinwiddie at all so you would just need to lock him into a PG slot. 

Celtics – Marcus Smart is doubtful, and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are under $10,000. The usage and fantasy points are mostly stagnant but not having Smart on the court still opens opportunities through the offense. 

Heat – Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain out, so Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry will carry the offense. 

Hawks – They’ll likely be missing Clint Capela so we’ll need to make sure Onyeka Okongwu is going to get the start like he did last game. Gorgui Dieng is out of the protocols but the expectation would be he will be the backup and Okinogwu will continue to start and log 30+ minutes. 

Mavericks – They’ll be short Kristaps Porzingis tonight so the duo of Luka Doncic on the high end of salary and Maxi Kleber as a value play are both very appealing. 

Spurs – They are still dealing with missing multiple rotation players so Dejounte Murray against the fastest pace team in the league and one that can’t play defense is an incredible fit. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life