NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

We’re back in action with just five games tonight and the NBA kept the main slate small since it is NFL Championship Sunday. There is only one team on a back-to-back tonight but we already have major value from one team in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30 so let’s go to work! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Spurs at Suns 

Spurs – San Antonio gives us the main value of the slate as the trio of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are all out. The good news is we know who is out but the bad news is this game is the last one on the slate and the starting lineup is far from set in stone. The names that we need to know and likely chase are Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Lonnie Walker, and Drew Eubanks at least. Jones especially will be needed at point guard and he is the bare minimum on DraftKings so it will be hard to really kill the lineup at that salary. Walker (and Devin Vassell) are likely to be the main scoring options and they’ve been around the same minutes a lot lately with Vassell holding a slight edge. All of these players have at least 0.82 points per minute when the main trio is off the floor, so we’ll get a clearer view of the chalk and pivots later in the day. 

Suns – We always preach to not calculate blowouts but this is a game where it might be an exception. Phoenix has the best record in the league and it’s hard to see how the Spurs keep it close but maybe the stars get enough work in. On DraftKings at least, I will not pay this salary for Devin Booker and the result of the last game is exactly why. He scored 29 raw points and didn’t hit 50 DK in part because Chris Paul went for a triple-double. With the expense of both guys, they will likely be GPP-only while Cam Johnson is going to be popular again if Jae Crowder remains out. Both Crowder and Deandre Ayton are questionable so we need news to see where the Phoenix exposure comes from. 

Jazz at Timberwolves

Jazz – Utah is still short Rudy Gobert at a minimum while Donovan Mitchell is questionable with his concussion. Hassan Whiteside struggled with fouls last game and that kept his upside well in check. I don’t love him on this slate, but the upside is always there with 1.20 points per minute if he can manage to stick on the floor. He’s not going to be a primary target and if Mitchell plays, everyone else for Utah is just way too expensive. 

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell is questionable again and when a player leaves one game early and then doesn’t play the next, I lean towards he’s out until he gets confirmed active. If that’s the case, Anthony Edwards is going to be an appealing option along with Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players have a usage rate of 27.7% and 1.27 FPPM and the Jazz defense is worse off without Gobert down low. If KAT could get Whiteside into foul trouble, he would have little resistance but he’s not always that style of player. 

Studs To Target

With a player like Tre Jones being an option, we need to go back to the top of the pricing grid with one of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, or Luka Doncic. The latter is almost surely going to be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight as KP left very early last night and I can’t imagine the Mavericks pushing KP in a back-to-back against the Orlando Magic. Normally, this would be a time to point out that Luka doesn’t have a massive jump in his usage or FPPM but there is a key factor in Luka’s favor – the Mavericks are also missing Tim Hardaway Jr. Luka has a 40.9% usage and 1.66 FPPM over 284 minutes while Jalen Brunson is at 0.99 FPPM. They do need some scorers down KP and THJ so both men are firmly on the radar. 

The decision would be a lot easier if both Giannis and Jokic weren’t facing off against each other. The status of Will Barton is a big deal here because if he’s off the court, the 1.89 FPPM for Jokic is the best on the slate. Of course, he is the most expensive but Jones unlocks it all. Milwaukee is sixth in points allowed in the paint but Jokic does so much more than that and he’s going to make Giannis work defensively tonight. On the offensive end, Giannis should have a clear path to the basket because he’s co-leading the league in FTA and Jokic can simply not afford foul trouble or this game is over fast. Denver is 10th in points in the paint but I think that number goes down tonight and Giannis is one of the few men who can battle on the glass with Jokic all night. As things stand, I side with Giannis out of the three but that could change tomorrow. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27

It’s a rare slate that has under three games but that’s where we are tonight. That can make things challenging in a different way because while the options are limited, it can be hard to fit anything that you’d like to play all together. Raw points will matter more than normal in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27 so let’s get into it to find our green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Unless more injury news comes in, I’ll be going with a single stud and balanced the rest of the way.

Adam: There is not a ton of value at least as of the night before the slate locks, so it will be locking in one stud player and then going balanced the rest of the way for now. 

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Joel Embiid. He’s coming into tonight’s contest with 30 or more points in a whopping 14 of his last 15, where he’s sported a 41% usage rate while averaging 34.7/10.7/4.3 on 55.9% shooting, including getting to the charity stripe an average of 12 times per game.

Adam: Center is extremely shallow tonight after the high-end, so it makes sense to me to lock in the best option there in Joel Embiid. No player on this entire slate can match his usage of right around 41% with both Seth Curry and Shake Milton out along with his fantasy points per minute which is around 1.80. On a slate that is so small, raw points matter and Embiid has a great chance to lead the slate at a thin position. 

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Steph Curry can wreak havoc on any given NBA slate, but even a 30-5-5 night won’t be enough to outscore Embiid. If more value appears, I’m more likely to pair LeBron James with Embiid than I am to play Curry.

Adam: Anyone not named Embiid. In all seriousness, it doesn’t at all look like we can fit two and I’m not willing to bet Steph Curry, LeBron James, or anyone else outscores Embiid in fantasy tonight. 

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Joel Embiid and Jarred Vanderbilt. While the latter’s offensive production is somewhat limited while running most of his minutes next to a combination of D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and/or Karl-Anthony Towns, his rebounding and defensive upside give us more than enough at a thin PF position.

Adam: We’re going to be looking at the double center approach and pairing Embiid with Kevon Looney. His recent game logs are uninspiring but the matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns should demand the Warriors need Looney’s size tonight on the interior. Minnesota is 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint and 19th in points allowed and that’s enough to take some chances with Looney at a sub-$5,000 salary. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: LeBron James continues his offensive dominance by scoring more than 30 points in a losing effort to Joel Embiid.
Adam: Klay Thompson sets his high-water mark in scoring tonight with 25 real points in just 25-27 minutes on the floor.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/25

We have nine games tonight in the NBA but there is already a focal point in James Harden for the Brooklyn Nets. Of course, with so many games there are going to be other spots to look at and it’s nice to have a larger set of games. Let’s get to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/25 and forge our paths towards green screens again!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Lakers at Nets 

Lakers – I’m guessing we can’t have much exposure to the Lakers tonight unless we have concrete news on Anthony Davis. He’s probable but coach Frank Vogel has said the conditioning may not be there. That would lead us to think the minutes are going to be dialed back and not worth the DK salary of $9,800, but he might play enough to hurt everyone else around him. It’s harder to pay for LeBron James if Davis is in for 25 minutes and everyone else on the roster is nothing more than hoping you get a strong shooting night. Malik Monk is finally back to playable levels salary-wise but his minutes have gone down to around 25. 

Nets – With the team being back at home tonight, that means Kyrie Irving is out and Kevin Durant is still recovering from his knee injury. Lest anyone forget, Harden rattled off four straight games of 70+ DraftKings points when KD was in health protocols in December before Irving came back. The Lakers are still 19th in defensive rating and Davis doesn’t fix all those issues immediately. Both teams are top 10 in pace and Harden is all the way up to third in FTA per game after a slow start in that aspect. LA also allows the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game and that bodes well for Patty Mills with extra scoring to go around and shooting 42.5% from that range. We’ll see what the model says for the secondary Nets and how they shake out but the rotations have been evil to predict from Steve Nash. 

Spurs at Rockets 

Spurs – One of the very few players I would at least consider a fade of Harden in GPP would be Dejounte Murray. I doubt we’ll get enough value to make them both work together but on a nine-game slate, it’s not impossible. We know the drill with Houston now and they continue to rank first in pace and dead last in defensive rating. Murray is producing 1.36 fantasy points per minute and is capable of 60+ DraftKings points and in large-field GPP’s he could be a dynamite play if Harden underwhelms. The easier paths to get exposure are Jakob Poeltl and Derrick White, both of whom are under $6,500. For Poeltl, the matchup in the paint is phenomenal as he’s seventh in paint touches with the 10th most paint points while the Rockets are in the bottom five in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. White is back toward the 32-35 minute per game mark and his 1.02 points per minute and 25.9% assist rate will play extremely well in this environment. 

Rockets – The minutes concern seems to be totally gone for Christian Wood and he’s about the only player I’d consider to run it back with. Kevin Porter Jr. should have to deal with Murray’s defense and Wood leads the team with 1.20 points per minute. The pace should be high in this spot as both teams are in the top 10 (still takes some getting used to from the San Antonio perspective) and this game has a 235 total, almost 10 points higher than any other game. The rotation insecurity leaves me very wary of anyone else unless the model tells us differently. 

Timberwolves at Trail Blazers

Wolves – This total is not up yet but I’m betting it gets close to the Rockets total and we should very much be interested. The difficult portion is trying to figure out where to go on this side of things while the big three of Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards are active. They bite into each other but my favorite might just be D’Lo. Both Russell and Edwards are in the top-eight of 3-point attempts per game and the Blazers are 0.2% away from leading the league in FG% allowed. Additionally, Russell averages 1.15 points per minute compared to 1.09 for Edwards and D’Lo has a 32.4% assist rate to fall back on as well. He’d look even better if Patrick Beverly gets ruled out and we may not know that until after lock. 

Blazers – I think we’re at the point to deploy C.J. McCollum with confidence as his minutes have gone up to at least 36 minutes in consecutive games. With Damian Lillard off the floor, McCollum is over 1.00 fantasy points per minute and his usage rate is leading the team at 27.7%. Norman Powell is also back tonight for the first time in over two weeks, so I’d approach him with a bit of caution and just find the $700 more to play McCollum in this game. I don’ think Jusuf Nurkic fits my build with the upper echelon that should be targeted, but Minnesota is 21st in points allowed in the paint, and KAT defense is nothing to fear. 

Honorable Mention – Hornets at Raptors

Teams To Monitor 

Sixers – They find themselves without Seth Curry and Shake Milton once again, so Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, and Furkan Korkmaz are all well in play at their salaries against a Pelicans team who played last night. 

Kings – We saw De’Aaron Fox get scratched very late before the last game for Sacramento, and if he is out all systems go for Tyrese Haliburton. When Fox is off the floor, Haliburton has a 38.8% assist rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute and he put up another 50+ DraftKings in this past game. The price does not reflect anything close to that upside. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/23

We’re back with nine games tonight and lock is a bit earlier than normal at 6:00 p.m. One of the biggest issues tonight is the Utah Jazz hold the keys to the slate but are the least game to lock, which could be problematic. We’ll see how that part of the day goes and let’s get into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/23 to find our paths to green!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Jazz at Warriors 

Jazz – As I mentioned, we have some serious question marks surrounding this Utah squad. Donovan Mitchell remains out but now both Bojan Bogdanovic, Hassan Whiteside, and Rudy Gobert are questionable. The main player here is still Jordan Clarkson but we’ll need to see how the day breaks before deciding anything else. Joe Ingles is in play regardless but only looks better and better the more players that get ruled out. The Golden State defensive rating drops outside of the top 10 without Draymond Green and the Jazz drop significantly without Gobert as well. 

Warriors – If I play a Warrior tonight, it’s likely going to be Klay Thompson. His salary still allows for a ceiling even in limited minutes and he’s not going 0-7 from deep like last game very often. Thompson has a 33.1% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute so far through six games with just a 48.4% true shooting rate. Both teams are in the top half of the league in pace this year and Klay can get hot in a hurry. 

Nets at Timberwolves 

Nets – Since Brooklyn is still on the road, Kyrie Irving is still an option and is now back under $9,500. This game has the highest total when the lines opened at 238 and that could be the highest we’ve seen this season. Kyrie is still not the most comfortable price so I would view him as GPP-only. He could score quite a bit though as 26% of his shot attempts come within 10 feet of the basket and the Wolves are 16th in points in the paint. Kyrie is one of the most talented finishers in the league and has a 55 DK point upside. James Harden is always in play and he’s slashing to the basket the 10th most times per game in the league and is back to racking up FTA. Even LaMarcus Aldridge is in play with a strong pace projected and average paint defense (at best). Brooklyn in theory needs him on the floor to combat the size of the Wolves down low but the minutes are always volatile for any Net that is not one of the big three. 

Wolves – Karl-Anthony Towns is going to mess with me all day, at least on DraftKings. It’s tough to remember a time when KAT has been $9,300 but there is a reason for that and that is the ceiling is limited when he’s sharing the floor with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell. All three are very talented but they haven’t totally meshed into a good team to this point and are still mostly three individuals. All three players have a usage over 26% and KAT does lead in points per minute at 1.30 but DLo leads in assist rate at 32.2%. Any one of these three can excel in this game but they are all risky. I do prefer KAT due to the matchup against LMA and/or the combo of Day’Ron Sharpe and Nic Claxton. Sharpe especially has had foul issues and KAT is 18th in FTA per game. 

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – This game is sitting at 236 and I feel like by the time tip is here, it could take the lead and get closer to 240. Regardless, my initial lean for the build tonight is Jazz value (potentially) and try and focus on these two games. If we’re spending up, might well be that dude for me tonight. Bogdan Bogdanovic has already been ruled out and Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari are questionable. With Cam Reddish in New York, Young shoulders it all, and both teams are bottom-five in defensive rating and Charlotte is third in pace. He’s seventh in touches per game and third in time in possession, perfect for this game. Young is one of the premier expensive options and Clint Capela could be underpriced if he gets his full run. Let’s see who’s active before deciding any other targets for the Hawks, with John Collins sliding in as a strong option if Capela is limited.

Hornets – I know that the minutes can be way too volatile for LaMelo Ball because the Hornets don’t like playing their best player, but $8,200 on DraftKings is just too cheap to not take chances on. He’s not even the priciest player on the team at this point (Miles Bridges) and he still has 1.37 fantasy points per minute and a 27.4% usage rate. What is really scary for Atlanta is they are tied for the fourth-worst points per possession allowed to spot-up shooters. The Hornets have three of the top 12 in points scored per game as spot-up shooters (Terry Rozier, Bridges, Kelly Oubre) and Ball is going to have a ton of chances to rack up assists. Additionally, the Hawks give up the fifth-highest FG% from a 3-point distance so the matchup for the Hornets offense is pristine. 

Teams To Monitor 

Heat – I’m still chasing the Jimmy Butler game with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro out. Bam Adebayo is still a strong option if Anthony Davis is out for the Lakers. He’s a game-time decision for the first time in weeks, so that changes this game for both sides if he’s active. 

Bulls – They will be down Alex Caruso, Lonzo Ball, and Zach LaVine so the duo of Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan are very appealing in their salary range. DeRozan is a usage hog in that scenario with a 39% usage rate and Vuc is at 1.28 fantasy points per minute. 

Sixers – Seth Curry and Shake Milton are both out, so Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, and Furkan Korkmaz are likely to play a boatload of minutes and can all be utilized. Kork especially was popular last slate and did nothing for fantasy, so on a bigger slate, I wonder if he’s not near as popular as the salary should be. 

Grizzlies – The Memphis side is still missing a lot of players and Ja Morant is still under $10,000. I don’t know what else really needs to be said there. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/22

The NFL playoffs are taking the focus of the day but that doesn’t mean we don’t have an interesting slate on tap tonight. There are only six teams active but it now appears no player on DraftKings will cost you more than $9,000 because Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for tonight. Let’s dive into the roundtable discussion for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/22 and find our way to green!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Balanced lineups are the default today considering Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only stud on the slate.

Adam: This slate is interesting because outside of the Indiana Pacers, the other five teams are largely healthy all the way around. I’m leaning toward a mostly balanced lineup while looking at one of the best players in basketball in Giannis as the only player over $9,000 on DraftKings. 

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: I’ll be locking in one, if not both of Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. Speaking of the latter since Adam touched on Garland below, OKC ranks 24th in the NBA in total rebounding, including being 29th in the league in rebounds allowed to opposing centers.

Adam: I want to play Giannis against the Kings, but the salary could be prohibitive if the right value is not available. If I can’t get to him without sacrificing the build, Darius Garland is the next man in. He and the Cavaliers get the Oklahoma City Thunder on a back-to-back and the Thunder are just 15th in defensive rating. Garland leads the team in usage at 28.2% and assist rate at 43.4% and is quietly having a dynamite season. Additionally, he leads the slate in touches per game and is 10th among all NBA players. 

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: $8,700 Khris Middleton on DK? I always like a nice laugh on a Saturday morning.

Adam: Khris Middleton. There is just no way I’m paying nearly $9,000 for Middleton when Jrue Holiday is back in action and I can play Garland, Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Caris LeVert, and Chris Paul in that range. 

Note – Both Ghost and I will have much more exposure to Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Bobby Portis now that Giannis is doubtful for the game. 

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: The combination of elite mid range players in Chris Paul and Jarrett Allen, combined with Goga Bitadze. While the Phoenix centers are enticing, I’ll side with Goga for the same price.

Adam: Garland and one of the punt center of JaVale McGee, Bismack Biyombo, or Goga Bitadze. I prefer Goga if you can get there because the duo of McGee and Biyombo has mostly been an even split. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Jarrett Allen goes for 15-15 in a win against OKC and while everyone figures out which punt center to use, he’ll be the optimal one.
Adam: Darius Garland has a 25/12 double-double and scores over 50 DraftKings points to be the best point per dollar stud on the slate.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/21

The bizarre NBA schedule this week moves forward and tonight we have 11 games on tap (before another three on Saturday). There are a few really great spots tonight to go over in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/21 so let’s not waste any time! 

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Nets at Spurs 

Nets – The Nets are on the road so Kyrie Irving is active and he’s still under $10,000. That makes him a lot easier to play than James Harden and their sample together without Kevin Durant has been interesting so far. Of course, it’s small at just 67 minutes so far but Kyrie has the lead in usage at 29.1% to 27.8% and points per minute at 1.32 to 1.07. At $2,000 less expensive, it’s hard to make the case that Harden would have the upside worth paying the extra $2,000. Another bonus is both teams are in the top 10 in pace and that is reflected in the highest total of the night and a tight spread of just 2.5 points. I’m at least moderately interested in LaMarcus Aldridge since he’s barely over $5,000 and he’s back to playing 32 minutes. The Spurs are just 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint and the Nets have minimal presence on the interior to deal with Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio. 

Spurs – Dejounte Murray is coming off a triple-double in just 30 minutes and the Murray/Kyrie stack in GPP settings has my attention. He has 1.37 fantasy points per minute and a 26.2% usage, which is perfect for this matchup. The Nets don’t have the most intimidating perimeter defense, to say the least. If the Spurs keep this game close like it is expected, Murray is going to have to have a big game. The rest of the Suns are tough to get behind other than Poeltl (really getting expensive although the Nets are 15th in points allowed in the paint) and Derrick White. The minutes have been a little low for White in the past three games but he’s been coming out of health protocols and there have been blowouts. On the year, White has 1.02 points per minute so if you can’t get to Murray, White makes sense to get exposure to the game. 

Rockets at Warriors

This game is one that you can consider stacking to an extent, but the Rockets continue to be tougher to predict. It’s best to stick to the main cogs like Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. while the Warriors defensive rating falls by about 10 spots when Draymond Green is off the court. I do like the matchup for Wood because the range he has and the athleticism should give the Warriors interior some fits tonight, but that would be strictly GPP. 

On the Warriors side of the equation, they will be down Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala for sure tonight. Steph Curry has a 33.1% usage when Green and Klay are off the floor this season and the Rockets continue to lead in pace and be dead last in defensive rating. Curry has incredible upside in this game even in three quarters of play, and Jordan Poole is a nice mid-range target as well. He’s over 1.01 points per minute in this scenario and we could see Jonathan Kuminga continue to be a very chalky option as he’s under $5,000. I will keep playing him until the salary dictates I shouldn’t especially in this matchup. 

Grizzlies vs Nuggets 

Grizzlies – Memphis is going to be shorthanded once again in this game and Ja Morant barely came off the floor last time out. He played 40 minutes and had a massive game and we should expect much of the same tonight. Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, and Tyus Jones are all still out so Morant is going to be “guarded” by the likes of Monte Morris and others. Sure, Jan. Morant is second in points scored driving to the hoop by 0.1 points and Denver is just 13th in points allowed in the paint. One of the main reasons I may not end with Kyrie is Morant has a slightly higher ceiling and he would be my main focus from this side. Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr., and John Konchar are all in play along with De’Anthony Melton. Everyone but Clarke played over 30 minutes last game and Memphis is missing a lot of depth players. 

Nuggets – He added on in overtime but Nikola Jokic was sublime last game and he should be considered the front-runner for MVP right now, and I said what I said (Giannis is right behind him). He’s going to eat Steven Adams alive and is still second in post-up points per game behind Joel Embiid. What is very impressive about Jokic is he’s under 5.5 free throws per game and the talent is just crazy. He’s flirting with 2.00 fantasy points per minute when Michael Porter Jr. is off the floor while Memphis is just 16th in points allowed in the paint. I typically don’t go with any other Nugget player but Monte Morris is cheap enough to consider with 0.85 points per minute as Memphis should force the Denver side to play faster than they like tonight. 

Honorable Mention – OKC vs CHA, POR vs BOS

Teams To Monitor 

Jazz – I fully expect one of the lynchpins of our lineups to be Jordan Clarkson as Donovan Mitchell is still out and Clarkson is still under $6,000 on DraftKings. His usage without Michell is over 31% and he’s still too cheap considering the spot. Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, and Royce O’Neal are all options as well, although the first three in that group are getting up there in salary. 

Lakers – Just be careful with this squad because Russell Westbrook was benched to close the game against the Pacers due to poor defense. LA is past the point where they care about feelings and need to start winning more consistently, so LeBron James is about the only safe player. 

Heat – Yes, I will go right back to Jimmy Butler even though he got ejected last game as he’s still under $9,500. Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry are both still out, so we can consider Bam Adebayo as well who saw his salary go down after his massive game. He’s playing his normal minutes and with potentially no Clint Capela for Atlanta, the interior is considerably weaker. 

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