Welcome everyone to my NBA DFS Top Targets and Bets article! My name is Shaun Evans and I will be breaking down my top plays for every slate. These targets will represent my core plays for any lineups built on DraftKings. With news rolling throughout the day and up until lock, the core plays may change. Make sure you are signed up for our premium package and in Discord for any changes. Use Promo Code “Dollar” to get your first week free! You can find me on Discord as “xfreshie” always dropping insight.
NBA DFS – Top Targets
Stephen Curry $9,500 – Projection: 49.46 DK points – 5.21 Value Rating
Stephen Curry comes in as one of the top five projected plays tonight and is under $10k with a value of 5.21. Curry has a solid matchup versus Washington who can struggle with guards. They are allowing them to average 25.7 points, 10.1 assists, and 7.1 rebounds per game. Plus, with this being a larger slate, Stephen Curry should come in with low ownership.
Stephen Curry brings the double-double bonus upside but his scoring capabilities are what can push him over the top. He’s averaging 27.7 points per game on the season with a usage rate of 31.3%. He has scored 30 or more points twice in his last five games. He recorded 41 points versus the Los Angeles Clippers and 32 points versus the Los Angeles Lakers. The final nail in the coffin to lock in Stephen Curry is the pace of possession for this game as Washington leads the league with 106.4 per game, giving Curry a pace-up boost.
Ayo Dosunmu $5,400 – Projection: 31.17 DK Points – 5.77 Value Rating
Ayo Dosunmu has been logging plenty of minutes in his last five games and at $5,400, we do not want to pass that up. Dosunmu’s last five games, he has recorded 39, 41, 33, 39, and 39 minutes. A full-game run versus the Detroit Pistons? Yes, please. He comes in at number six when it comes to the value ranking in our DFS Projections.
The Detroit Pistons do come in with a faster play than the Chicago Bulls but once again, that is another pace-up spot for Ayo Dosunmu. The Pistons average 104.3 possessions per game while Chicago ranks at the bottom with just 100.9 possessions. Mixing that with their poor defense versus shooting guards, Dosunmu should have no trouble paying off his price tag tonight.
Jarrett Allen $7,300 – Projection: 41.53 DK Points – 5.69 Value Rating
The Dallas Mavericks may have some nightmares about Jarrett Allen who completely dominated them in December. Allen logged a huge double-double with 24 points and 23 rebounds. Can we expect that to happen again? Most likely not but we can expect him to walk away with another double-double. In his last five games, he is averaging 19.6 points and 10.2 rebounds, while securing a double-double in four of his last five games.
Mixing Jarrett Allen with Ayo Dosunmu could give you the salary room to move up from Stephen Curry to Victor Wembanyama who also is under $10,000 on DraftKings. However, the matchup is slightly more difficult and Wembanyama value rating is at just 4.93 for this large slate.
NBA DFS – Betting Plays
If you haven’t already, Jason uploaded some early morning bets that you don’t want to miss out on over in the Bet Tracker.
Draymond Green over 0.5 3-PT Made -120 (Bet365)
This comes in as the highest edge bet in our NBA Player Prop Model, sitting at 156.61% edge. Draymond Green has made at least one three-point shot in his last five games while attempting two or more in four of them. The Washington Wizards are good at defending power forwards when it comes to three-point shots but still allow 2.3 per game.
Max Strus over 8.5 Points -125 (Bet365)
Max Strus is coming into tonight’s game, averaging 10.4 points in his last five games. His only real dud was Sunday versus the Washington Wizards where he only scored 3 points. In our model, he is projected for 11.29 points. Dallas ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the small forward position and with Strus averaging near 32.2 minutes per game this season, 8.5 points is very doable to exceed.
