NASCAR

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the start of the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series’ article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

If you were with us all weekend then you saw the carnage that was the Truck and Xfinity series races. We actually only had 9 cars end up unscathed in the Xfinity race on Saturday and while we can see something similar in the Cup Series on Sunday, it’s more likely we have more clean cars than 9.

Daytona Lineup Construction:

For those who are new to NASCAR DFS or were not in discord this weekend, I spent a lot of time preaching leaving salary on the table. It is key that you don’t just load up on the top-priced drivers because they will generally in the lead pack when the “big one” hits.

This race is a little different because some of the top tier drivers are starting further back in the field so that makes them good plays. We will still have salary left over, but not as much as in past races. Looking back at 2020 and the four Superspeedway races we had an average of $5,000 (on DK) being left on the table for the optimal lineup. Talladega’s 2nd race had the biggest amount at $8,700. Last year’s Daytona 500 optimal lineup had $3,800 in salary left, and in 2019 there was $3,700 leftover. Lastly, in 2020 none of the top 11 finishers started higher than 19th.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

Starting Position: 25th

Hamlin is the two defending winner of the Daytona 500 and is set up nicely to make it a 3 peat. Is Denny Hamlin going to be chalk on Sunday? Yes, no question he will be and I will probably have plenty of exposure to him. Hamlin has a very high chance of being the highest scoring driver in this race and fading him just doesn’t make sense to me. There are plenty of other ways to be different in this race and fading Hamlin isn’t one of them for me

Brad Keselowski ($10,100)

Starting Position: 24th (moving to rear of the field)

Keselowski has had a ton of success at Superspeedways in his career (6 wins – best in the series) but his recent runs at Daytona have not been great. Since winning the July 2016 Daytona race in a dominant performance, Keselowski has finished 27th or worse in 6 of 8 races. Keselowski is definitely playable on Sunday but he is a higher risk play then the others in this tier.

Ryan Blaney ($10,000)

Starting Position: 14th

Ryan Blaney is one of the series best Superspeedway drivers, but he unfortunately seems to find bad luck at these races. In the Daytona 500, Blaney has an average finish of 3.6 (if you don’t count his wreck in 2019) and has finished 2nd twice in that span. Blaney is someone I plan to have plenty of exposure too and could easily find himself in the winners circle

Joey Logano ($9,9000

Starting Position: 9th

Logano will probably one of the lowest owned drivers in this tier because where he starts, but that doesn’t scare me. Logano has performed exceptionally well at the Daytona 500 and if he didn’t wreck late in 2020’s 500, Logano would have six straight top 6’s. In the 5 previous 500’s, Logano had an average finish of 4.2 including a win in 2015.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,300), Kyle Busch ($9,500), Kevin Harvick ($9,700)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 2nd (Starting from the rear)

Byron has been of the best drivers at Superspeedways since the restrictor plates have gone away. If you are playing single entry or one lineup then Byron is not someone you should roster, but he is a great play for MME. Byron is the most recent winner at Daytona, securing his playoff spot last fall with his Daytona victory.

Aric Almirola ($8,600)

Starting Position: 3rd

Here is another MME play, but at the same time, Almirola could be a sneaky good GPP play. Starting in P3 he will seemingly go unowned which is good for us. Almirola has won this race before and earlier this week he led 52 laps on his way to winning his Duel race this week.

Ricky Stenhouse ($8,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Stenhouse should be higher owned, but there are some who just refuse to play him in the NASCAR DFS community. While he has been a great performer at Superspeedways in his career, Stenhouse has problems finishing races. Stenhouse has an average finish of 22.6 in his last 6 Daytona 500 races, but one thing that can be said about Stenhouse is he races with more passion and intensity then any driver on the track most weeks. Eventually it will all fall into place for Stenhouse, so why not Sunday?

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)

Starting Position: 23rd

Matty D is entering a crucial season for him. We already know he won’t be back in this care next season as Austin Cindric is prepared to take over, so he will need to earn his next seat. DiBenedetto has been a solid Superspeedway performer finishing between 7th and 13th in 5 of his last 8 races at these track. It will take some work, but DiBenedetto and the #21 could come home with a top 10 on Sunday.

Other Options: Kyle Larson ($8,500), Austin Dillon ($8,300), Alex Bowman ($9,200), Christopher Bell ($7,600), Kurt Busch ($8,800)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ryan Newman (P7) – Newman has the tendency to bide his time and find a way to avoid the big ones. ($7,000)
2. Bubba Wallace (P6) – Wallace has worked with the JGR Toyotas all week and should be again on Sunday. They could pull him to a top 5 ($7,400)
3. Chris Buescher (P22) – Sneaky top 10 potential for a driver that people always seem to overlook ($6,900)
4. Michael McDowell (P17) – McDowell has only finished lower than 15th in his previous 5 Daytona 500’s once. ($6,300)
5. Corey Lajoie (P16) – It seems like every year I pass on playing Lajoie at Daytona and then he finishes in the top 10. I am not passing on him this year ($5,800)
6. Erik Jones (P31) – Jones is a great driver who gets little respect. Last season at Talladega Jones finished top 5 in both races. ($7,300)
7. David Ragan (P18) – Ragan is a Superspeedway ringer. Last year Ragan finished 4th and is a two-time winner at this track ($5,400)
8. Tyler Reddick (P29) – Reddick hasn’t been too successful in his previous Daytona races, but he showed promise with a 7th place finish at Talladega last season ($7,100)
9. Chase Briscoe (P30) – Briscoe is a series rookie but last season in the Xfinity Series he did pick up two top 5 finishes at Daytona ($6,500)
10. Austin Cindric (P39) – Cindric just won the Xfinity race here on Saturday and is in a Penske Ford so he should be able to pull a top 20.

Honorable Mention:

Jamie McMurray ($6,400)

Starting Position: 19th

McMurray is a past 500 winner and is cheap enough to make the optimal lineup on Sunday. I will probably have him in one lineup because you just never know

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Cup Series for the final time in the 2020 season! It’s Championship Weekend and the third and final championship we will see handed out is the Cup Series trophy Sunday afternoon. This season Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski will compete for the Championship. Since 2014 the champion has been the winner of this race and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. I don’t know how much exposure to each driver I will have, but I will have some of all four of them.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Championship Contenders:

Brad Keselowski ($10,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

I love Keselowski as he is my pick to win this race and the title on Sunday. Keselowski is driving the car he used at Loudon this season, he ended up winning and leading 184 laps in that race. Keselowski has yet to win at Phoenix but he did lead 82 laps earlier this season, but finished 11th. I will have plenty of exposure to the #2 on Sunday, as well as the next driver on this list…

Chase Elliott ($10,600)

Starting Position: 1st

Elliott is on the pole and I expect him to lead a ton of early race laps. If you are playing cash I would lock Elliott in, I won’t fade him in GPP’s, but if you want to I understand the reasoning because he will have high ownership. In the previous Phoenix race this season, Elliott led 93 laps from the pole and finished 7th.

Non-Championship Drivers:

Kevin Harvick ($11,100)

Starting Position: 11th

After a complete fade of Harvick last week, we are back to using him this week. He could end up being the reason the champion doesn’t win this race. Harvick has finished top 2 at Phoenix in 10 of his last 17 races here dating back to 2012. For the first time in a very long time we actually get place differential upside from Harvick in a race. He has the chance to score the most DKFP on Sunday.

Kyle Busch ($9,600)

Starting Position: 8th

Kyle Busch might be extremely underpriced but he could still garner very low ownership. Busch offers some good PD upside on a track he has been great at over the years. In his last 10 races, Busch has nine top 5 finishes and the one race that he didn’t finish top 5, he came home 7th. Busch has also led 681 laps in those same 10 races.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,300), Joey Logano ($10,000)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jimmie Johnson ($9,300)

Starting Position: 26th

Jimmie is probably not safe for cash games this week, but he is a good GPP play. Starting 26th gives him place differential upside if he can manage to keep his car clean and avoid wrecks. Johnson does have five straight top 15 finishes at Phoenix which gives me hope he can gives the points we need on Sunday.

William Byron ($8,400)

Starting Position: 25th

William Byron is another guy that nobody ever wants to play, so I will take advantage of that and have a lot of Byron on Sunday. With him starting in P25, Byron has big PD upside and is another underpriced driver similar to Kyle.

Clint Bowyer ($7,900)

Starting Position: 9th

Bowyer is starting higher than I would like, but he has top 5 potential which is where he finished earlier this season. I think a lot of people stay away from the #14 because of his starting position. While I am not a huge fan of his starting spot, I love Bowyer’s salary for this race for GPP’s.

Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,100), Aric Almirola ($7,800)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. John Hunter Nemecheck ($5,500 – P27) – Way too cheap for the PD upside
2. Ryan Preece ($5,800 – P24) – Cheap enough with upside for both cash and gpp’s
3. Chris Buescher ($7,200 – P31) – Will be very chalky, probably good to fade in large field GPP’s
4. Ty Dillon ($6,000 – P22) – 4 straight top 20 finishes at Phoenix
5. Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P18) – Dillon has top 10 potential, could put up a big number for his price
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,200 – P20) – Has been better of late and people hate playing, good for GPP’s
7. Brennan Poole ($4,700 – P35) – If you need a punt, he’s your man!
8. Daniel Suarez ($5,600 – P30) – Suarez has some PD potential if we get a few wrecks early
9. Josh Bilicki ($4,900 – P38) – If you need two punts, then you can throw Bilicki in.

THANK YOU to EVERYONE who read my NASCAR articles all season and I hope you all will be back in February with us here for the start of the 2021 season at WinDaily Sports! Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday afternoons Cup Series race from Martinsville Speedway! Only Joey Logano has clinched his spot in the Championship season finale race next Sunday in Phoenix meaning we have 3 spots with 7 drivers trying to fill those spots. Kevin Harvick ($11,000) is practically a lock to make it unless something drastic occurs. After Harvick, it gets a little tighter in the standings. Both Denny Hamlin ($10,200) and Brad Keselowski ($11,400) have fairly large leads but would love to win this race and not have to worry about making the finale. All four of Bowman, Elliott, Truex, and Kurt Busch pretty much have to win to get in. Both Bowman and Elliott are only 25 points out, so they will be looking to earn stage points to help bolster their chances so they will stay out if cautions occur close to the end of Stages 1 & 2. Martin Truex Jr. ($11,800) is the highest-priced driver on the slate and will be one of the most popular drivers on the slate I presume. Dominator points will be key in this race as we have 500 laps of points available.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Trues Jr. ($11,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

They need to consider renaming this track Martin Truex Jr. Speedway with how he has dominated here over the last 5 years. Truex has nine top 10 finishes in his last eleven races at Martinsville, he also has five top 5 finishes (all within the last 6 races) and Truex has won the last two races here at Martinsville. In his back to back wins, Truex Jr. led 596 laps and has led laps in 8 of his 11 races here. Truex needs to win this race to advance to finale next week, and I think he will while leading a good amount of laps.

Brad Keselowski ($11,400)

Starting Position: 1st

If there is someone who could steal the win from Truex, it could be Keselowski. In the same time period (since 2015) as Truex, Keselowski has ten top 10 finishes including nice top 5 finishes and two wins as well. Keselowski has finished 3rd to Truex in the previous two races. Like MTJ, Keselowski has led laps in 9 of the last 11 races including 446 laps in his last win in the spring of 2019.

Other Options (in order of preference): Joey Logano ($9,900), Chase Elliott ($10,400), Denny Hamlin ($10,200), Kyle Busch ($9,600)

I am not rostering Kevin Harvick ($11,000) this week for the first time in a while. Harvick has not led a lap here at Martinsville since the Spring race in 2016 and has not won a race at Martinsville since 2011. For Harvick to be able to pay off this price tag he will need to lead laps, and I think that the six drivers mentioned above offer much more upside for their price than Harvick does.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

This week the mid tier is pretty barren. There are a few drivers in this price tier worth taking a shot on, but for the most part I will be passing on this section in general. I instead will focus on taking 3 dominators from the top tier and working in that value drivers into the majority of my lineups on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson ($9,300)

Starting Position: 27th

Jimmie has collected many the grandfather clock from winning races at Martinsville, 9 to precise, but he hasn’t been great here of late. Johnson has struggled overall and at this price he might come in at very low ownership on Sunday which we can take advantage of. While he has struggled, he knows this track better than anyone in the field and starting 27th he offers a ton of place differential point upside with a top 10 not being totally out of the question here.

Clint Bowyer ($8,300)

Starting Position: 16th

Bowyer is an expert on short tracks and will most likely be pushing for the win on Sunday with only two races left in his NASCAR career. Clint is a straight GPP play for me because of the boom or bust possibility. Bowyer could win this race or at least finish top 5, or he could end up 23rd as he tries to play the strategy game for the win. Bowyer won this race in 2018 while leading 215 laps, he has been fast of late and been up front in multiple races of late so leading laps is definitely a possibility on Sunday.

Other Options: Erik Jones ($9,000), William Byron ($7,700)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Bubba Wallace – $7,200 – P32 – Hasn’t finished lower than 17th in his last 3 Martinsville races. Has huge PD upside
2. Ryan Newman – $6,500 – P21 – Has 2 top 10’s in the last 4 races here and a 12th place finish
3. Michael McDowell – $6,100 – P24 – PD upside for cheap
4. Chris Buescher – $6,700 – P28 – After an early crash last week we get Buescher cheap and offering up huge PD upside
5. Ryan Preece – $5,600 – P22 – Has finished top 20 in 7 of the last 8 races
6. John Hunter Nemechek – $5,700 – P23 – Has great stats at Martinsville in the Truck Series
7. Ty Dillon – $5,900 – P25 – Has top 15 upside, offers some good PD upside for the price
8. Corey Lajoie – $5,500 – P26 – See Ty Dillon
9. JJ Yeley – $5,100 – P38 – If you need a punt, Yeley is the man for the job.
10. Christopher Bell – $6,800 – P11 – Starts a little too high, but has some upside and makes for a good GPP play.

Thanks for reading this article on the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series 11/1/20 from Martinsville Speedway! Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!