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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Atlanta 7/11/21

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Something a litte different …

Since we have already been to Atlanta this season and since it’s your basic 1.5-mile high tire wear track I want to change up my open a little this week and focus on something different but just as, or more, important.

I want to start by reiterating something I talked about in discord this week. Contest selection is key in NASCAR like in all other DFS sports you need to pick the contests that fit your playing style. If you are an MME type of player then max those types of contests out to optimize your potential wins. But, if you are like most of the subscribers here and play one lineup a race you need to focus on the single entry contests. There are two in particular on DraftKings that I really like and Brian will back me up on this, the $12 and $24 SINGLE ENTRY contests are the best contests I have found. If you plan on playing 2-3 lineups in the $4 or $5 large field GPP you might be better suited switching to one semi-cash style build and play the $12 SE to maximize your win potential. That contest in particular is nice because minimum cash payout is $25, more than double your entry fee.

Lineup Building:

I mentioned semi-cash style lineups in the last paragraph and if you’re not sure what I mean by that, I will elaborate. When I build single entry style lineups I look to use 3-4 high ownership safe plays, like I did last weekend in the $12 SE. I used 4 drivers I knew were going to be popular but had a big, safe upside. I rounded it out with a low-owned Kurt Busch (15%) and a semi-chalky Ricky Stenhouse (29%). In that contest, the one lineup that beat mine had 5 of the same drivers and the one difference was he went Christopher Bell over Busch.

I know a lot of people are programmed to look for low-owned plays to be “different” but in NASCAR you NEED a decent amount of chalk and find those 1 or 2 drivers that can be the difference. With a limited player pool each week you should focus on picking out the drivers who have the best shot at getting the highest point totals regardless of ownership. After that, you find 1-2 drivers who have high upside but are also a little risky. You cannot cash, ok not necessarily cannot, but it is highly unlikely that you’ll cash if you build a team full of low-owned plays. They are projected with low ownership for a reason, they aren’t in a good spot. I hope this helps some when it comes to building lineups and picking out your contests this weekend, now speaking of that, let’s get to it!!

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,000)

Starting Position: 6th

Projected ownership: 66%

Who saw this coming? Well, if you didn’t you should have. Larson dominated the spring race here in Atlanta leading 269 of 325 laps but ended up second after Ryan Blaney ($10,500) passed him late in the race. Larson is also dominant at high tire wear tracks this season where he has the best overall speed ranking and a series-best 2.7 average finish. I believe that the path to victory lane goes through Larson on Sunday. Larson’s projected ownership is high, but when he is potentially going to be the highest-scoring driver on the slate you need to ignore that and lock him in.

William Byron ($10,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Projected Ownership: 28%

You’re going to see a trend in this tier and it continues with William Byron. The Hendrick Motorsports cars are the best in the series at 1.5-mile tracks, especially the high tire wear tracks like Atlanta. Byron has finished in the top 10 in every race at these tracks this season with an average finish of 6th. Byron also is second only to Larson when it comes to overall speed at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. At high tire wear tracks, Byron’s average finish actually improves to 4.3. I know the price is high, but combining Larson and Byron is how I want to start my build today.

Alex Bowman ($9,400)

Starting Position: 17th

Projected Ownership: 18%

Here is the last in the trend I mentioned earlier, another HMS Chevy, this time we have Alex Bowman. I think he is too cheap today and he is projected for sub 20% ownership, yes, please! Bowman is my Kurt Busch from last week, he will be under-owned but has immense potential to have a great fantasy day and pairs well with some of the high owned plays. Bowman has the potential to be a top 5 car today based on his earlier run at Atlanta this season. In the spring, Bowman finished 3rd, he also had the 3rd best average running position (4.9) and was 5th late in a run which is key because that shows he can take care of his tires here.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500)

Starting Position: 15th

Projected Ownership: 20%

Blaney is another car who runs really well at Atlanta. Earlier this season Blaney stole the victory from Larson and in 2020 he ended up 4th. This season Blaney had an average running position of 2.7 (2nd), the second-best total speed ranking behind Larson, and was the best car late in a run. Blaney definitely has top 10 potential, and I don’t see why he can’t sweep Atlanta this season.

Kevin Harvick ($10,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Projected Ownership: 22%

Harvick is priced up this week, and with good reason. Atlanta is one of Harvick’s best tracks throughout his career and he should be a contender for the win here on Sunday. Harvick comes into this race riding an eight-race top 10 streak at ovals this season. Since April 25th (Talladega), Harvick’s lowest finish (outside of road courses) is 10th at Charlotte and he has four top 5’s in that span as well. At high tire wear tracks this season, Harvick has finished in the top 10 in all three and has an average finish of 7th.

Other Options:

I really like all three of Chase Elliott ($9,800 – P1), Kyle Busch ($10,300 – P2), and Denny Hamlin ($9,600 – P3), but their upside is capped today. I think all three have the potential to do really well here but I have to take the place differential upside and dominance (Larson) in the drivers I mentioned above over them. I will not talk anyone off these three on Sunday, but the drivers above have more upside in my opinion.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Similar to last week I am focused on using 3 dominator builds so my lineups do not have much exposure to the mid-tier. I will still give you some of the plays I do plan on using in the few 2 dominator builds I have.

Daniel Suarez ($7,70)

Starting Position: 27th

Projected Ownership: 31%

Suarez had some bad luck last week which puts him starting towards the back this week. Yes, Suarez will be higher owned this week because of this, but as I talked about in the open it’s ok to have some high ownership drivers with huge point upside. At the last two 1.5-mile tracks the Cup Series has been to Suarez has finished top 15 at both and he should be a contender for another top 15 on Sunday. Suarez is the perfect play in my eyes for two high-priced dominator builds (Larson with Harvick or Blaney) because he cheap enough to allow you to not have to go real low in the value bin which gives you higher point potential.

Kurt Busch ($8,400)

Starting Position: 8th

Projected Ownership: 10%

Busch has been running great recently after a really bad start to his season. In the last five races, Busch has finished 8th or better in four of them, including last week at Road America. Busch is another driver I think pairs well with two dominator builds and is that low-owned play that will set you apart from the field.

Austin Dillon ($7,900)

Starting Position: 13th

Projected Ownership: 17%

We saw Dillon jump in the #1 car for injured Michael Annett yesterday and have a strong showing. Overall, Dillon has been great at 1.5-mile tracks this season with three top 10’s, an average finish of 9.2 and never finishing below 12th. In the spring race here, Dillon started exactly where he is today, 13th, and finished 6th. I expect Dillon to be a top 10 car on Sunday again and if luck is on his side, maybe he can steal a top 5.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($8,800 – P10), Chris Buescher ($8,600 – P18), Ryan Preece ($7,400 – P34)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($6,100) – P29/PO 49%: Newman will carry ownership but there is so much upside here for so little salary you have to just bite the bullett here and take the consistency of Newman on Sunday.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600) – P16/PO 32%: Stenhouse has finished 13th or better in 4 of his last 6 in Atlanta and has an average finish of 13.7 here during that 6 race span.
Michael McDowell ($5,900) – P25/PO 35%: If you don’t want to use Newman, then McDowell is your pivot. He is still going to be relatively higher-owned but not nearly as high as Newman. McDowell also carries similar upside to the 6 car.
Bubba Wallace ($6,300) – P24/PO 19%: Here is your pivot off of Stenhouse if you don’t trust him starting so high. I actually trust Ricky a little more than Bubba right now, but Wallace and the 23 car has been improving and a top 20 is definitely expected this week
Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) – P32/PO 10%: Nobody likes playng Alfredo, hell I don’t really like it, but for this price and where he starts he is a pretty solid play today. I prefer you find a way to fit the top 4 drivers in over him, but if you need the savings Alfredo is your man
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P26/PO 16%: Lajoie would be ahead of Alfredo but for the 6 place starting difference. Lajoie will be in the mix for a top 20, but he could also finish with a top 30 like he did in the spring here
Erik Jones ($6,900) – P22/PO 14%: Jones is a good driver at Atlanta but will need a big day for him to make value on Sunday. I think you can go here if you have the salary and want to be different in 2 dominator builds.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Atlanta 7/10/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome (back) to Atlanta NASCAR! This is the first time the series has come back to a track for the second time in 2021. It is nice to have some stats from this season to go off when building lineups even though there are some drivers in different cars.

Earlier this season Martin Truex Jr. dominated this race but finished 2nd to Justin Allgaier ($10,600). This week Kyle Busch ($14,000) is in the #54 car that Truex drove to P2 but he will start from the pole and should dominate the early part of this race. This week DK did a good job pricing up Busch and making us decide to use him or not (more to come on that). Another Joe Gibbs car, Harrison Burton ($9,000) also ran really well here in the Spring and should be in for another solid day on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Allgaier ($10,600)

Starting Position: 8th

Allgaier may be from Illinois, but it seems like Atlanta is his second home. In his last nine races at Atlanta, Allgaier has one finish outside the top 11 and has four straight finishes of 6th or better. I think Allgaier will give Busch a run for the win on Saturday as he did with Truex in March.

Kyle Busch ($14,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Kyle Busch is expensive this week, good! It should keep his ownership down and make you have to decide if you can afford to play him (spoiler alert: YOU CAN). It’s not pretty, but you can build a three-dominator lineup with Busch in it. If you don’t love stars and scrubs builds you can definitely go with a two dominator build and get a little more balanced. I do think Busch leads a good amount of laps on Saturday and probably wins, but he is ranked 3rd in this tier in my opinion. It will take a lot for him to pay off his salary and I think that both Gragson and Allgaier have easier paths doing that. Busch does have six top 2 finishes in his last eight Atlanta races and has won his last two races here in the Xfinity Series

Josh Berry ($10,000)

Starting Position: 28th

Berry has run this #31 car for Jordan Anderson twice this season and both have resulted in top 10’s. In both races in this car Berry has started higher than 30th, now this week he starts 28th, but that doesn’t change his ability to get a top 10 again. Earlier this season while driving for JRM, Berry wrecked early and finished 38th so we can’t truly count that race.

Noah Gragson ($9,200)

Starting Position: 9th

Gragson is another JRM driver who has run well in every race he’s been in at Atlanta. In the Spring, Gragson started 30th but managed to finish 4th while running nearly 72% (117 laps) of the race in the top 15. Gragson has never finished outside the top 10 in his three career races here in Atlanta and has two straight top 5’s.

Austin Cindric ($11,000 – P4) is always a driver to consider and if you plan on running multiple lineups he is someone you can look to as a pivot off Busch. Cindric does not have great track history at Atlanta with only two top tens and an average finish of 11.5. It’s hard to doubt Cindric any week with the equipment and skill he possesses but I just think there may be better options for the salary this week.

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger ($10,300 – P3), Sam Mayer ($9,400 – P22), Harrison burton ($9,000 – P5), Ty Dillon ($9,700 – P30)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jeremy Clements ($7,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Before 2019 this team did not run well here in Atlanta, but things changed in the last three seasons for Clements. Over his last three starts here Clements has managed three straight top 20 finishes and had his best career finish of 12th here in the Spring. Before having problems at Road America last week, Clements had rattled off three straight top 15’s as well. Clements actually comes in as the third-best FPTS/$ play on this slate behind Kyle and our top value play.

Santino Ferrucci ($8,000)

Starting Position: 25th

Ferrucci only has one start here at Atlanta and it was a 15th place finish in the Spring this year. In his five career Xfinity races, Ferrucci has only finished below 15th once so a top 15 seems very likely for the 26 team on Saturday. Ferrucci is relatively expensive, but if you are running two dominator builds he is a great low-owned pivot off guys like Brandon Jones, Justin Haley, or Daniel Hemric.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800)

Starting Position: 20th

Moffitt is a driver that nobody seems to play weekly, but he usually seems to have a good day. In his last six races, Moffitt has outscored his projection in half of those races. Earlier this season at Atlanta, Moffitt finished last (40th), but that was because he got involved in a wreck on lap 39. Moffitt was set for a solid day in that race running all 39 laps inside the top 15. In his only other race at Atlanta in the Xfinity Series, Moffitt finished 14th.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($8,800 – P13), Daniel Hemric ($8,600 – P2), Justin Haley ($8,700 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Carson Ware (4,7000 – P26): Ware is the top FPTS/$ play on this slate and is too cheap for the equipment he is in
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,900 – P37): Highest priced value play, but has huge upside starting so far back
Colby Howard ($6,100 – P36): Howard has great track history at Atlanta (avge finish of 18th) and starts far enough back to destroy value today.
Landon Cassill ($6,800 – P21): Consistent and safe driver who will probably finish around where he starts and make value
Bayley Currey ($5,900 – P39): Similar to Earnhardt he starts at the back and has some upside for the price.
David Starr ($5,100 – P35): Starr is not a pretty play, but he is cheap and has top 25 upside on Saturday.
Jade Buford ($5,400 – P27): Buford has been running well of late, and could be a top 20 threat if things break his way.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Knoxville (Dirt) 7/9/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Listen, everyone, I’m going to be blunt with you all, this whole race sucks as far as DFS purposes go. We won’t know the starting grid until about an hour before the green flag and it is really a crapshoot when it comes to who will do well. I will recommend playing light, don’t empty your bankroll because of a birthday or silly narrative you find…Brian looking at you…but instead, put a little on it and enjoy the action Friday night.

Instead of giving you the usual categories I am going to rank my favorite drivers in two categories. The First will be the Truck Series regulars, and the second will be the dirt track ringers. I will be in discord giving updates after the heat races to any changes that may be needed. One positive is that ALL trucks will qualify for this race so there is no need to worry about any drivers being sent home. We did have practice on Thursday night so I will at least be able to use that as somewhat of a basis on how drivers could run.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Truck Series Regulars

Stewart Friesen ($10,400)

Single lap practice rank: 22nd

Friesen is the class of the field when it comes to dirt track racing in NASCAR. Over his career in the Truck Series, Friesen has raced on dirt five times with three top 5’s and a victory in 2019 at Eldora. Friesen has also led 152 laps in the five races.

Matt Crafton ($9,100)

Single lap practice rank: 2nd

Matt Crafton is one of the better, if not second best to Friesen, in the field of Truck Series regulars when it comes to dirt. Crafton has plenty of experience with eight total dirt track races in his career. Over those races, Crafton has amassed seven top 10’s, two top 5’s, and a win in 2017 at Eldora.

Hailie Deegan ($6,800)

Single lap practice rank: 5th

Deegan didn’t run great at Bristol earlier this season, but she did get a top 20 (19th). In her career before this season Deegan has been superb on dirt. In three dirt races at lower series, Deegan has two second place finishes and a win. On Thursday Deegan was top 5 in practice and really seemed like she had a good feel for the track.

Todd Gilliland ($8,900)

Single lap practice rank: 29th

Gilliland is not generally known as a dirt track specialist but he has done well in his few NASCAR dirt races. Gilliland has run three dirt track races in his NASCAR career and has two top 5’s including a 4th place finish at Bristol (dirt) this season. In practice on Thursday, Gilliland did show some good speed early and looked to have a handle on this track. Depending on how he looks in his qualifying heat, Gilliland has a shot at being our low-owned gem and lead us back to the green like he has done a few times this season already.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,400)

Single lap practice rank: 21st

Self finished 10th earlier this season at Bristol, but that wasn’t a fluke. In his career, Self has run four races on dirt and has an average finish of 12.5 with his worse finish being 18th place. Self could end up being one of the top value plays on the slate depending on where he qualifies.

NASCAR DFS: Dirt Track Specialists

Donny Schatz ($10,700)

Single lap practice rank: 4th

Schatz is one of the most accomplished dirt track racers in the history of the sport. After 31 years of racing on dirt, Schatz is making his NASCAR debut at a track he knows well. Schatz is a ten time winner of the Knoxville Nationals as well has having 300 World of Outlaws wins (3rd most). Schatz has also won ten WoO championships. With all this being said I really think Schatz could be a sleeper pick to win this race. I know the price is steep, but it’s hard to not consider him with his credentials and the speed he showed on Thursday.

Brian Brown ($10,100)

Single lap practice rank: 9th

Brian Brown will be in the KBM #51 on Friday night and while he isn’t as accomplished as Schatz he is a great dirt driver. Brown is a seven time champion at the Knoxville Nationals and set the fastest lap time at Knoxville earlier this year. We know that Brown is in one of the best trucks in the series and should easily compete for a top 5 on Friday.

Kyle Strickler ($7,000)

Single lap practice rank: 19th

Kyle Strickler is replacing Spencer Boyd in the #20 truck this week and is himself a dirt track veteran. Strickler has run two races in the NASCAR Truck Series, both at Eldora. After a wreck in thee 2018 Eldora race, Strickler came back in 2019 and finished 18th. Strickler ran a top 20 practice lap on Thursday and depending where he qualifies he could be a top mid-tier pla

NASCAR DFS: Cup/Xfinity Regulars

There are really only two drivers that are hopping into a truck ride this week that would be viable for me. Chase Briscoe ($11,000) is the top priced driver and will be popular I believe. Briscoe has four top 10’s in four dirt races in his career as well as three top 5’s. Chase also has an average finish of 4th with his worst finish being a 7th place finish.

Josh Berry ($6,900) is a pretty good play for me at this price. Berry is back in the #25 for Rackley W.A.R. on Friday. After practice on Thursday, Berry could be a contender for a top 10 finish after coming home with the 17th fastest lap. If Berry qualifies poorly then at this price for his upside could be key.

Last but not least, well almost least based on his practice times, Michael Annett is hopping into the 02 that Kris Wright usually pilots. Annett did not have a good go of it in practice finishing 39th with only Jennifer Joe Cobb running slower.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Road America 7/4/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Happy Independence Day everyone stateside! Usually, NASCAR heads to Daytona for July 4th weekend, but this year they are north, REALLY north, all the way to Minnesota, specifically Elkhart Lake. Road America, the home of this weekend’s race, is a 4.048-mile, 14 turn road course that is only of a select few tracks that have kept its original track configuration since its inception. This marks the first time the Cup Series has been here in nearly 65 years.

When it comes to road courses we can almost always count on the usual suspects like Chase Elliott ($10,600) and Martin Truex ($10,300) to run well, but we’ve seen both Kyle Larson ($10,500) and Kyle Busch ($10,100) become better road racers recently, with the latter winning the Xfinity race on Saturday. There are a couple of other drivers that may be sneaky plays on Sunday and might carry very little ownership, but I will save those for the driver breakdowns.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($10,600)

Starting Position: 34th

I wasn’t originally going to have Elliott in this write-up because he is a known play at road courses, but I need to explain why he starts 34th today. Elliott was unable to run a qualifying lap during the allotted 25 minutes. He tried multiple times but a yellow flag came out for two different incidents on the track forcing him to stop his lap. Elliott ran out of time in the end but this poor starting position has nothing to do with his ability on this track or his car. He is the top overall play…well second-best overall play now.

Kyle Busch ($10,100)

Starting Position: 40th

Busch is now the top play on this slate, but will probably carry the most ownership on the slate (which is why I listed him behind Elliott). Kyle did not take a lap during Sunday’s qualifying since he was already starting in the back for going to a backup car. My only fear is that Busch does not know what this car can do and it will take him some laps to get it right and get some damage while fighting through the field. Going back to 2015, Busch has run 12 road course races in the Cup Series and he has one win, seven top 5’s, and eleven top 10’s. This season at Sonoma (the most relevant comparison to RA), Busch finished 5th and had the 2nd fastest late run speed and the 3rd fastest total speed. Busch will be starting at the rear on Sunday, so maybe that could lower his ownership but not for me.

Kyle Larson ($10,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

I know both Elliott and Truex have a better pedigree when it comes to road courses, but how do you pick against the best driver going this season. Coming into the weekend Larson has led 30% of all laps run this season in this series. In 2021 Larson has two top 5’s and a victory in three road course races this season. Larson ran the 9th fastest lap in practice, but I am not putting too much stock in these times. A lot of the drivers were just trying to get a feel for the course since most have never raced here, or at least haven’t raced here in years.

Joey Logano ($9,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Joey Logano might be the most overlooked road course performer in the entire Cup Series field right now. Over the past two seasons, Logano has run five road course races and has finished in the top 10 every time as well as four top 5’s. Logano also has an average finish of 4th in these five races and his worst finish is 9th.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300)

Starting Position: 9th

Truex, like Elliott, tends to dominate at road courses, and Sunday should be no different. In a post-practice interview, Truex said he wasn’t 100% sure he knew how to run this course and was concerned about that. I think he may have figured out in qualifying and will also be overlooked because of Busch and Elliott and to a lesser extent Larson.

Denny Hamlin ($9,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin ran the most laps in practice on Saturday (16) and was 6th fastest. This season at road courses, Hamlin has an average finish of 8.3 with his best finish coming at the Daytona road course (3rd). This season has not been good for Hamlin, while he does lead the regular-season point standings but he is winless. I don’t think Hamlin wins on Sunday, but a top 5 is something I think can happen for the 11 team.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kevin Harvick ($8,600)

Starting Position: 25th

Harvick did not have a good qualifying session on Sunday and will start 25th. We did see Harvick on this track Saturday afternoon in the Xfinity Series and he came home with a top 10. Since 2018, Harvick has seven top 10’s in 11 Cup races at road courses and has an average finish of 11.8. I thought Harvick was underpriced going into this race, but he is ridiculously underpriced for his upside. I like using Harvick as a “top tier” substitute in Busch/Elliott lineups.

Austin Cindric ($8,300)

Starting Position: 5th

With all the top drivers starting at the back of the field Cindric will likely be overlooked completely. Cindric was fast in both practice and qualifying as well as running great in the Xfinity Series race and should be a darkhorse contender for the win on Sunday. We know Cindric is great at road courses and seems to have the best Penske car in the field going in.

I really think we need to focus on the high-priced top-tier drivers and pair them with the plethora of value plays in this race so I won’t have much exposure to the mid-tier. Outside of Harvick and Cindric, I am only interested in :

Kurt Busch ($8,800) – P16
Christopher Bell ($8,00) – P13
Brad Keselowski ($8,500) – P20
Alex Bowman ($8,100) – P10

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Austin Dillon ($6,800) – P37: Dillon ran into the same problems that Elliott did. Incredible upside for this price
Chase Briscoe ($6,700) – P35: See Dillon and Elliott
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,900) – P38: No issue here with the #47, just ran into the same issues as Briscoe, Dillon, and Elliott
Ty Dillon ($5,700) – P39: Cheap and can’t hurt you. So many drivers in worse equipment starting ahead of him that he will surely pass. I see Dillon as a top 30, maybe top 25 car.
Bubba Wallace ($6,000) – P36: Wallace’s team had to change his transmission after qualifying so be aware of that when using him. Wallace is coming off his first top 5 finish of his career and was not too pumped of coming to a road course though.
Ryan Preece ($6,100) – P32: Preece will start from the rear, but has similar upside to Ty Dillon
Ryan Newman ($6,300) – P28: Newman is a decent road course driver and did run the Trans-Am race this morning to get track experience.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Road America 7/3/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This weekend, the Xfinity Series heads to Wisconsin, specifically Elkhart Lake, between Milwaukee and Green Bay. Road America is a long and storied track that will be hosting its 12th ever Xfinity race here on Saturday. There will be four previous winners (Cindric, Allgaier, Clements, and Allmendinger) in the field so there is no lack of experience in the field for this race.

Both Kyle Busch ($10,900) and Kevin Harvick ($9,900) will be in the field for Saturday’s race trying to get some experience for their Cup Series race on Sunday. I honestly believe they are both severely underpriced by DraftKings which will lead to some pretty massive ownership. While I am not happy about the pricing and the potential ownership it would be ill-advised of me to not suggest that you play these drivers on Saturday.

Lastly, this is a live practice and qualifying race on Saturday so all of these plays will be based on how the cars ran in practice on Friday. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Sports Discord on Saturday after 12:30 EDT to see my updates.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Busch ($10,900)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 7th

This will be Kyle’s first time on the track at Road America, which is why he is running in this race, but he has become somewhat of a road course expert in this season. Busch already has a win in his only road course race this season in the Xfinity Series, COTA, where he led 35 of 46 laps. I really think DraftKings mispriced Busch this week, he should around the $12K mark, but here we are with him over a thousand dollars cheaper. Busch will be chalk, but I don’t think you can fade him in any type of contest this week.

Austin Cindric ($10,700)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 1st

Cindric is one of the best road course racers in the Xfinity Series and how well he ran in practice should be a threat for the pole. With only 45 laps in this race, we aren’t chasing dominator points but if we can get them why not try. Since 2019 in the Xfinity Series, Cindric has run 11 races on road courses and he has four wins, nine top 5’s, and ten top 10’s. Cindric has an average finish of 3.7 and has led 181 laps.

Justin Allgaier ($9,500)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 3rd

Allgaier is not necessarily known as a road course specialist, but he does have a good track record over the past three seasons. In eleven road course races, Allgaier has three top 5′ and seven top 10’s. If Allgaier ends up on the pole or in the top 3 I may back off him some, but I could see him coming at very low ownership. With all the names pilled up above him in the field, Allgaier will quite possibly be overlooked and we need to take advantage of that on Saturday. Allgaier’s salary is perfect to pair with a Cindric/Busch build and still have plenty of salary remaining to build a lineup you can feel confident in.

A.J Allmendinger ($10,300) was fourth in practice on Friday and will be a threat, as always, on a road course. I think A.J. will carry some ownership like he usually does on this type of track. Allmendinger will be in my player pool on Saturday but I think there are some better choices.

Ty Gibbs ($10,500)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 6th

Gibbs will be in the #81 for Joe Gibbs this weekend, their 5th entry into this race and how can you deny running a car with Gibbs in it. This season Gibbs has run two road course races and has finished top 5 in both. Included in these was his FIRST CAREER race in the Xfinity Series where he led 14 laps on his way to victory lane. One build that will be very different in my opinion will be running Busch/Cindric/Gibbs together. I don’t think people will want to run a stars and scrubs type of build but there is enough value in that tier to make this work.

Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($9,900) – Harvick wasn’t fast in practice (22nd), but I need to see where he qualifies before I decide if I want to use him. Daniel Hemric ($9,300) – Top 5 practice speed, another of the Gibbs cars that could be a factor Saturday. Kaz Grala ($9,100) – Road course ringer in the #31 for Jordan Anderson, had top 20 speed in practice.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Labbe ($7,200)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 9th

How do we get the three of the top tier drivers I mentioned you ask, well enter Alex Labbe. On a normal oval track, I would be wary of using Labbe at this price, but Labbe is another road course specialist. In his career, Labbe has eight top 10 finishes in 95 races, half of those top 10’s came in his 13 road course races. Labbe has an average finishing position of 14.3 in those 13 road course races. We see that Labbe showed top 10 speed so we know he has that potential. Labbe could be a key driver in three dominator builds for us on Saturday.

Jeb Burton ($7,600)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 2nd

Burton is another driver not known as a road course driver, but this season something clicked for him. In three races at similar tracks this season, Burton has two top 10’s and a top 5 which were all firsts for him. Burton has never run here at Elkhart Lake, but he showed he can handle this track on Friday in practice by running second to Cindric by under a second. Burton is a piece I want to use in Busch/Cindric/Allgaier builds on Saturday.

Andy Lally ($7,800)

Single Lap Practice Rank: 13th

Maybe I am showing my local Long Island bias (Northport) here, but I think Lally is another great play come Saturday. Lally is solely a road course racer in the Xfinity Series, and the stats show why. He has run 16 races in his career, but more specifically Lally has run four races here at Road America. In his four races, Lally has three top 10’s, a top 5, and an average finish of 9.3 with his lowest finish being 15th.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($8,900) – Solid road course driver, but needs a great day to pay off his price. Preston Pardus ($7,700) – Good road course driver, if you can’t get to Lally, Pardus is a good pivot.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Myatt Snider ($6,900) – Fast in practice, too cheap for the upside
Jeremy Clements ($6,500) – Top 10 speed, WAY too cheap if qualifies outside the top 10. A previous winner here as well
Ryan Ellis ($5,800) – Ellis has five races here at Road America, but his average finish is deceiving with 2 DNF’s in his first two races here. Since those races, Ellis has finished 21st or better in all three. Ellis was 18th on practice on Friday
Jade Buford ($6,100) – 19th here last season, top 15 in practice. I like the potential upside here
Matt Jaskol ($4,500) – Finished 20th in practice on Friday. Jaskol also finished 19th in his only career road course race this season in this same car. As the lowest priced driver in the field, he is worth a look in three dominator builds, especially if he qualifies poorly
Kyle Weatherman ($5,300) – Weatherman will most likely be low owned but he has top 25 potential. I need to see where he starts before I add him to my player pool but he did finish 21st here last season and has a career avg finish of 22nd on road courses.
Spencer Pumpelly ($5,900) – Finished 19th in his only career Xfinity race at COTA this season. Ran a top 20 lap in practice on Friday.

*** As always with qualifying races PLEASE make sure to check discord before building lineups. I will update with any changes in there ONLY since I will be at work post qualifying.***

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Pocono 6/27/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

No, your eyes are not deceiving you, this is another Cup Series article for this weekend. We saw a crazy finish on Saturday and we hope for another exciting race on Sunday. Kyle Larson was set to win his fourth straight race on Saturday but as he came around turn 3 his left front tire went flat and sent him into the wall. Larson did manage to finish 9th but that gave teammate Alex Bowman the victory.

When I go through the lineup for Sunday there are a lot of plays that would be considered chalk plays. With so many of these types of plays, they all can’t be chalk so that makes this race more interesting. I think a lot of the top plays in this race will be spread out and keep ownership down, but also some of the good drivers starting towards the front will go completely overlooked and could be the key to a big payday on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 18th

Byron was one of the best cars on Saturday and will be in the running for the win on Sunday again. On Saturday Byron ran 115 of 130 laps in the top 15, led 13 laps, and had 11 fastest laps. I know I told you not to chase dominator points at Pocono, and we aren’t. But if we can happen to get some of those points while rostering one of the best plays and the top FPTS/$ driver on the slate why shouldn’t we.

Kyle Busch ($11,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Kyle Busch led to most laps on Saturday at Pocono for the 5th time in the last 9 races at Pocono and will be a threat again on Sunday. I only rank Byron ahead of Busch in this tier because of the $2K salary difference. I plan on playing Busch and Byron together a lot on Sunday. With the way things worked out on Saturday we can build a pretty great-looking lineup with these two drivers and only having to use ONE value play.

Kyle Larson ($12,800)

Starting Position: 12th

Larson was set to win his 4th straight on Saturday until his right front tire decided otherwise. Like I said in the open, Larson cut a tire down on the final turn of the race which cost him the victory. On Sunday I expect Larson to be determined and drive his car harder than he has all season to get the victory. Larson will be scored from 12th on Sunday but will start at the rear because he is going to his backup car which isn’t too much of a concern for me. I will probably lower my ownership of Larson on Sunday but he is in no way a fade candidate for me

Denny Hamlin ($10,500)

Starting Position: 17th

Pocono is one of Denny Hamlin’s favorite tracks and he had another great day here on Saturday. Hamlin has 6 career wins at Pocono, his most at any track, and on Saturday he had his fourth straight top 5 and fifth straight top 10. I think there is an outside chance that Hamlin finally gets his first win of 2021 on Sunday.

Chase Elliott ($10,200)

Starting Position: 9th

Elliott had one of the best cars on Saturday even though it was a rocky start to the race. Early on Elliott had made contact with Ryan Preece but would recover and finish 9th. Elliott was not an easy car to pass on Saturday as he was only passed under green 29 times, 3rd least in the race, only Custer and Hill had less but Custer went out early and Hill was in the back all day so there was no one to pass him. Besides being hard to pass, he also made the most green flag passes (103).

I also have a lot of interest in Joey Logano ($9,700 – P14), Kevin ($10,000 – P13), and Ryan Blaney ($9,200 – P16)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Bowman ($8,700)

Starting Position: 20th

As a long-time fan of the 48 team, I would love to see a sweep from Bowman this weekend but I don’t think it happens. Do I think he can come away with another top 5 and ending up in the optimal lineup on Sunday, yes. Bowman didn’t dominate in his win on Saturday, honestly, nobody really dominated this race, but he did lead 16 laps and his car was fast all day.

Ross Chastain ($7,700)

Starting Position: 33rd

Chastain was having another solid day before he got some damage early on Saturday afternoon at Pocono and finished a lap down in 33rd. I do think that Chastain will be one of the highest owned drivers but I am willing to eat the potential chalk. Chastain opens up a lot of other options and is part of the build I mentioned earlier with Busch and Byron.

Kurt Busch ($8,500)

Starting Position: 15th

I want to say that I love Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P32) in this same spot on Sunday and he will be in plenty of my lineups. Matty D will be another of the higher owned plays, someone who won’t be is Kurt Busch. On Saturday Busch ran a hell of a race and finished 6th. Busch’s 6th place finish was his third straight top 10 after a string of 12 races without a top 10.

Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P32), Chase Briscoe ($7,900) – P24)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($5,500) – P37: Newman killed our lineups on Saturday but that won’t be the case on Sunday. First, DK dropped his price by $300, and second, he is starting 18 spots lower. Newman will bounce back and is cheap enough to help you get all the top tier and mid-tier plays in
Austin Dillon ($6,600) – P21: Speaking of DK dropping prices, Dillon sees a $1,100 price decrease and is starting 9 spots lower. I love this play and will have a good amount of Dillon on Sunday
Cole Custer ($6,800) – P38: Custer is another driver who drowned our hopes on Saturday but like with Newman he starts so far back (dead last in this case) that he can’t hurt us and should be one of your top choices from this tier
Tyler Reddick ($6,900) – P10: Reddick is the risky play of this tier today, but if you are doing multiple lineups he is worth taking a shot on with his top 10 upside
Corey Lajoie ($5,900) – P36: Lajoie had a down day, but I think he bounces back on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($5,700) – P22: Jones had a really fast car on Saturday but faded at the end of the day. Jones will one of the higher owned plays in the value tier, that is why I have him at this spot instead of higher up.
Ryan Preece ($5,300) – P23: Preece starts a little higher than we’d like, but he is so cheap that we can take a small minus in place differential and still get the value from Preece.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Pocono 6/27/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Series

This weekend we have a rare Sunday Xfinity Series race as they play opener for the Cup Series’ second race at Pocono in two days. Pocono is a long 2.5-mile triangular race track and because of this we only have 90 laps. With there being so few laps, we will not need to hunt for dominator points but look more towards place differential and finishing positions.

This week we have an Xfinity Series only field with no full-time Cup Series drivers “invading”. Josh Berry ($10,200) is no longer driving the #8 JR Motorsports and will be in the #31 for Jordan Anderson while the ultra-talented, yet young, Sam Mayer ($10,000) will be in the 8 for the majority of the season going forward.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Ty Gibbs ($10,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Gibbs is another huge upside driver on Sunday (are you starting to see a trend with this tier?) and he could be the second-highest owned driver after Cindric this week. In his limited races this season, Gibbs has only one finish outside the top 5, an 18th place finish at Darlington. Gibbs will be a threat to win again on Sunday (his 3rd of the season) and if he can outrace Cindric he could find himself in victory lane once again.

Austin Cindric ($11,000)

Starting Position: 13th

Cindric is the reigning Xfinity champion and the class of the field most weeks (depending on if Kyle is racing), and this week should be no different. Last year Cindric was involved in a wreck halfway through the Pocono race and ended up 29th, but in his two other starts before 2020, he was great. Cindric didn’t lead a bunch of laps in those races, only 7 combined, but he managed to finish 4th and 7th respectively. I expect Cindric to be the chalk of this tier, but starting 13th he offers the best upside in this tier…or does he?

Sam Mayer ($10,000)

Starting Position: 20th

Mayer is one the most talented young drivers in the sport and we can look forward to him and Ty Gibbs ($10,800) battling it out for wins and titles for many years to come. This week Mayer takes over where Josh Berry left off in the #8 for JRM and will hopefully be able to keep up the pace that Berry has set for this team. Mayer literally turns 18 the day before this race (does this count as a birthday adjacent narrative Brian?) and has never raced above the Truck Series before, but he has shined in his 12 races there. Mayer has only 2 finishes below 18th, has one win, two top 5’s, and four top 10’s. If you take out his two poor finishes at the Daytona road course and Martinsville, Mayer’s average finish is 11.3 (19.5 with them) and he is stepping up in equipment big time. Combined his upside and talent on Sunday and I really like the possibility for a big day for Mayer.

Josh Berry ($10,200)

Starting Position: 33rd

Like I mentioned early, Berry had a great run in the #8 for JRM but that is over for this season as Mayer takes over. With that being said, Berry isn’t done in as he hops in the #31 for Jordan Anderson for the second time this season. Berry has great place differential upside this week which will be what pays off his huge price tag. Earlier this season Berry drove this car to an 8th place finish at Mid Ohio. If we can get a similar finish on Sunday then Berry will pay off that tag

** I plan to roster 3 of the above drivers in every lineup I build, but I will not force it. I will however have at least 2 in every lineup because there is so much value that it will be easy to do.**

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,700 – P6), Harrison Burton ($9,300 – P1), AJ Allmendinger ($9,500 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brandon Brown ($8,400)

Starting Position: 24th

I am happy to see that DraftKings priced Brown up this week which will hopefully keep his ownership down on Sunday. Last week Brown had a good run going when he had brake issues which led to his 33rd place finish. Before last week Brown had three top 10’s in his last five races and four finishes of 13th or better. Last season at Pocono Brown had an oil tank issue which led to him only running 7 laps and finishing 33rd, but in 2019 Brown started 27th and ended up 13th. Like I mentioned, I think Brown’s price keeps his ownership down which I love because I think he gets it back together this weekend.

Myatt Snider ($7,300)

Starting Position: 19th

Snider had a hot start to the 2021 season but it has all seemingly fallen apart for the young driver. Even though he has been mired in a slump, coming to Pocono could be the cure. In two starts at Pocono in two series Snider has run well finishing 4th last season in the Xfinity Series and 13th in 2019 in the Truck Series. Again, like with Clements, I think Snider is somewhat risky, but the potential and upside are there for a good GPP play. Snider will most likely go overlooked with game log watchers.

Justin Haley ($8,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Haley has been having a roller-coaster season in 2021, but he does have nine top 10’s in 14 races this season. Last season at Pocono, Haley did not have a great race when he finished 23rd. In 2019 Haley finished 9th at his first Pocono race. I would love to find some better options at a lower price in this tier, but the reality is the bottom of the mid-tier is not good and I don’t want to touch them (outside of the next driver). I will probably have some exposure to Haley, but he is not a priority. Haley knows he will be driving for Kaulig in the Cup Series in 2022. This news has him more relaxed which could help him perform better and put his mind at ease.

Other Options: Santino Ferrucci ($8,500 – P26), Michael Annett ($8,000 – P8)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jeffry Earnhardt ($5,600) – P38: Earnhardt is the top FPTS/$ play on this slate. Along with #2 on the list, Earnhardt is the optimal play in this tier according to the optimizer.
Carson Ware ($5,000) – P32: Ware has not driven an Xfinity car in 2021, but did have three races last season where he finished top 20 twice. On Sunday Ware will be in the #17 that J.J. Yeley and Cody Ware (Carson’s Brother) have driven to 13 top 25’s in 15 races.
Brett Moffitt ($6,700) – P17: Moffitt is underpriced in my opinion, but it is what it is and we will just take advantage of this mispricing. Last season in this same car Moffitt started P18 and finished 7th. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. Moffitt has ten finishes of 17th or better this season and in 3 of the 5 times, he didn’t finish that high he either wrecked or had a mechanical issue.
Jade Buford ($5,900) – P29: Buford had his string of four straight top 20’s snapped last week when he wrecked out early. I love the potential place differential upside for Buford on Sunday for his cheap price tag.
Colby Howard ($5,200) – P37: Howard, like Earnhardt, starts far enough back that he can’t really hurt you. In his last seven races, Howard has finished top 30 in all seven and has one top 20 in that span as well.
Loris Hezemans ($4,600) – P39: Cheap and starts far enough back that he can’t hurt. I think a top 35 is the best we can hope for but he makes fitting three top-tier drivers super easy.
Joey Gase ($5,400) – P40: I am sure you are starting to see a trend here, we want the cheap guys who start towards the back. Gase is not my favorite in this tier, but he starts dead last and can only go up from here
Ryan Sieg ($6,900) – P12: Sieg is probably the most talented driver with the best car (next to Moffitt) in this tier and even though he starts high in the field there is some upside.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Pocono 6/26/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This weekend we have TWO Cup Series races from Pocono Raceway with the first being run Saturday afternoon. Pocono is nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle” and is a 2.5-mile “superspeedway”. Saturday’s race is 130 laps of which Kyle Larson ($12,500) likely leads over 100 of in route to his fourth straight win and seventh straight top 2 finish. Of course, it’s also likely someone finally knocks Larson out of victory lane, though it will be difficult to do.

I am not sure it can really affect our DFS lineups but we could see some drivers who are running in the teens try to position themselves around P20 at the end of the race since Sunday’s starting lineup is determined by how this race ends. Sunday’s lineup will be the top 20 inverted and then 21-38 by the formula NASCAR usually uses to determine lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,500)

Starting Position: 1st

It’s Kyle Larson series and the rest of the field is just living in it. Larson is riding a three race winning streak, and has six straight finishes of 2nd or better. I honestly don’t think you can fade Larson at this point if you’re only playing one lineup. I will be playing multiple lineups like usual and will probably have 90% Larson again. Like I mentioned in the open, I think Larson could lead over 100 laps in this 130 lap race and I also think you will need him in your build to have a shot at a takedown.

Chase Elliott ($11,000)

Starting Position: 29th

Elliott starts deep in the field this week but should be back in the top 10 by the end of stage 1. It’s not unusual for Elliott to start towards the rear of the field as he generally fails pre-race inspection every couple of weeks. If you take out Elliott’s “DQ” finish last week he has not finished lower than 7th in any of the previous 6 races and has an average finish of 3.3. Elliott should come home in the top 10 on Saturday and be part of the optimal lineup with Larson.

Brad Keselowski ($9,500)

Starting Position: 18th

Pocono is clearly one of Keselowski’s favorite tracks. In his last 11 races here, Keselowski has finished top 11 ten times. In fact, the only time Keselowski finished lower than 11th was when he wrecked in 2018 with just 45 laps to go. Keselowski’s salary is cheap enough that you can pair him with the Larson and Elliott to make a good GPP build. It will take some risky value plays to make it work, but it is feasible.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200)

Blaney, like Elliott, will start towards the rear of the field, but for completely different reasons. Last Sunday at Nashville Blaney lost his breaks coming out of turn 2 and hit the wall hard. Pocono is one of Blaney’s better track and in 10 starts here he has only finished lower than 12th twice and owns a win here in 2017. If you can’t make a lineup you’re comfortable rolling out with Larson and Elliott, Blaney is a suitable replacement with $800 in savings.

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 2nd

William Byron has put together a great string of races at Pocono over his career. In six career races at Pocono, Byron has never finished lower than 18th and has finished top 10 in four out of six. Byron is another cheaper option to pair with Larson and Elliott or Blaney that will give you some flexibility.

Other Options: Martin Truex ($10,700 – P15), Denny Hamlin ($9,700 – P10), Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($8,000)

Starting Position: 25th

Chris Buescher has a win at Pocono and that was one of only two top 10 finishes he has had here. Buescher is having his best season as a regular in the Cup Series and I believe he could pull his third top 10 finish at Pocono on Saturday. If you take out his poor finish last week when he wrecked, Buescher has an average finish of 11.8 over his last six races and has three top 10’s in that span

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Matt DiBenedetto has not been running well of late and hasn’t finished better than 18 over the last six races. Before this bad run, Matty D had three straight top 10’s, and two top 5’s in three races. Last season at Pocono DiBenedetto had finishes of 13th and 6th. I am worried about using DiBenedetto because of his recent struggles but his salary and potential place differential upside make him worth the risk

Austin Dillon ($7,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Dillon is having a great season in 2021 and it should continue come Saturday. In 17 races this season, Dillon has only finished lower than 17th twice. Dillon doesn’t have a great track record at Pocono, but he does have 11 top 20 finishes in 14 races here, and last season he finished 19th and 14th at Pocono. Much like with the rest of the drivers in this tier I am hunting for value with upside to make the top tier drivers we need fit and Dillon fits the bill.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,600 – P13), Tyler Reddick ($7,900 – P16), Christopher Bell ($8,200 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Erik Jones ($6,400) – P22: Super cheap price for a driver that has been overperforming this season
Chase Briscoe ($6,900) – P28: Briscoe has been improving as the season goes on and I expect a top 15 for Briscoe this week
Daniel Suarez ($6,500) – P14: Suarez has had some great success at Pocono in his career (when in good equipment). In his 6 races before 2020, Suarez has three top 10’s.
Cole Custer ($6,300) – P26: I really like Custer’s PD upside for his cheap price.
Ryan Preece ($6,200) – P31: Cheap and has great PD upside, what’s not to like. Plus he’s running the truck race before this one as well
Ryan Newman ($5,800) – P19: Newman starts a little higher than we like, but his salary makes him playable.
Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P23: Lajoie has four straight top 20’s and it’s hard to overlook the potential here for the cheap price tag
Ross Chastain ($6,800) – P6: Chastain is starting to turn it on as the season progresses. In his last four races, Chastain has three top 7 finishes.
Bubba Wallace ($6,100) – P20: Wallace and Team 23XI Racing have figured it out it would seem. In his last five races, Wallace has three top 15 finishes.
Quin Houff ($4,700) – P37: Houff didn’t even make a lap last week and will most likely come in under 2% ownership on Saturday. There is potential for a top 35 on Saturday.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Pocono 6/26/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

We have a busy schedule at Pocono this weekend with four races in two days and the Truck Series kicks it all of Saturday at noon eastern. This track runs similar to a Superspeedway with long laps and drafting being key. One difference is that we don’t generally get too many cautions, and the lap count is usually lower. We only have 60 laps on Saturday afternoon so chasing dominator points is not necessary and we need to focus more on place differential and finishing position.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Busch ($15,000)

Starting position: 22nd

This will be the last time we see Kyle Busch in the Truck Series this season and the last chance we have to decide if he’s worth the salary. Pocono has been a great track for Busch in the Truck Series, but he hasn’t run a truck here since 2018. I am not concerned with the three-year gap because it’s not like Kyle hasn’t been racing competitively since then. I will focus on his last race here primarily, but he does have 2 wins and three top 5’s in four races. In 2018, Busch led 43 of 60 laps on his way to victory lane. I think we see a very similar performance on Saturday from Kyle and the #51

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Like Busch, Nemechek has not run a truck race here in years, but when he did run, he ran well. In his three races here from 2015-17, Nemechek never finished lower than 13th. Nemechek is a much more experienced driver and is running in the series’ top equipment this season and should compete for the win here.

Grant Enfinger ($9,600)

Starting Position: 31st

Enfinger is a having a great 2021 season and has been doing it for two different teams. Because he missed a race this season and doesn’t have a full time ride Enfinger isn’t eligible for the playoffs so he is just racing for wins. This week Enfinger is back in the #9 for Codie Rohrbaugh which he has two top 10’s in and has not finished lower than 17th. Enfinger and Busch will be chalky I believe, and can easily be played together, but I love that combo so much so that I will ignore the ownership on them and find ways to be different in the mid and value tiers. Both Enfinger and Busch has top 10 potential and could be 1-2 in DraftKings points at the end of the day.

Christian Eckes ($9,000)

Stating Position: 16th

Eckes is driving the #98 ThorSport Toyota this week that Enfinger drove to a 3rd place finish last week. This will be Eckes’s 6th race this season and outside of COTA (suspension issue), he has not finished lower than 11th. Adding Eckes to our Busch/Enfinger build is one way to make our lineups different.

Other Options: Ryan Preece ($9,800 – P8), Sheldon Creed ($10,500 – P10), Todd Gilliland ($10,300 – P1): Gilliland is an LF GPP play only, he has some upside but is very risky starting P1

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Josh Berry ($7,500)

Starting Position: 20th

Berry will be running his 3rd race this season for Rackley W.A.R. and his 4th Truck Series race overall in 2021. In his previous two races, Berry has finishes of 11th and 19th. We have seen him have great success in the Xfinity Series this season and with his run there over for the season, Berry will focus more on the few Truck Series races he has remaining starting with this week. Looking at paths to lineup building this week, I like how Berry slots in perfectly with a Busch and Nemechek build.

Johnny Sauter ($7,300)

Starting Position: 12th

Sauter had his streak of six straight top 10’s at Pocono snapped last season when he finished 13th, but this week he can start a new streak! Pocono has been one of Sauter’s better tracks in his career where he has an average finish of 10.4 in 11 races. In his 11 starts here at Pocono, Sauter has only finished lower than 11th once in his career (2012). While I mentioned using Berry with a Busch/Nemechek build on Saturday, Sauter could be the lower owned GPP play to pair with them for similar upside.

Bayley Currey ($8,700)

Starting Position: 27th

Currey is back in a Niece Chevrolet this season for the 5th time and will look to continue his good run of races. Now, while I do like Currey, I do think he is a bit overpriced but the upside is certainly there for him. Currey does have three top 20 finishes this season, and I think he can easily pull that off again this weekend. If you need to be different and have the salary, Currey is the guy. If you think, like I do, that Kyle Busch will get the lead and not relinquish it and only want to pay up for him, Currey makes for a great pivot off Enfinger.

Other Options: Chandler Smith ($7,800 – P11), Ty Majeski ($7,100 – P14), Stewart Friesen ($8,200 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Derek Kraus ($6,500) – P24: Top overall FPTS/$ play on the slate
Tyler Ankrum ($6,300) – P18: I love the idea of pair him with Kraus in Busch/Efinger builds. They are both two of the projected higher owned value tier plays but most won’t play them together
Tyler Hill ($6,700) – P30: Hill is a nice piece to put with Busch/JHN builds with good place differential upside.
Spencer Boyd ($5,200) – P34: Is not expected to be popular, but he should be. Boyd has the salary relief and limited downside to make any build work
Carson Hocevar ($6,900) – P13: Expected to be sub 20% owned, good GPP pivot off Kraus/Ankrum
Ryan Truex ($6,100) – P23
Jack Wood ($6,00) – P9: Carried almost no ownership last week and expect the same again on Saturday starting in the top 10. Wood is driving great equipment and should finish around the top 10.
Austin Wayne Self ($5,800) – P21: Starts a little higher for his price, but a top 20 is not out of the question
Danny Bohn ($5,700) – P28
Bryan Dauzat ($5,400) – P39: Starts last, can’t really hurt you but I will probably not have any exposure. I’d rather save the $200 in salary and play Boyd.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Nashville 6/20/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

For the first time in a very long time, the NASCAR Cup Series is racing at a new oval track for the first time. Nashville has hosted numerous other racing series but never America’s premier racing series, until now.

As we saw this weekend with the Truck Series and Xfinity Series passing is not easy and tire wear is real. Looking over the results from the weekend you will see that only 11 total drivers started outside the top 20 in both races but finished in the top 20 (6 in Truck, 5 in Xfinity). No drivers in the Xfinity who started lower than 29th were able to crack the top 20. My whole reason for going into this is to tell you to focus on fitting in the drivers you want to pay up for, and then see what fits as far as value.

This will sound very similar to the Xfinity article, but there is one team that is just far and away faster than the rest of the field, but unlike the Xfinity race it’s not the Joe Gibbs Toyota’s. Hendrick Motorsports four Chevy’s dominated practice on Saturday with all four running top 10 speeds. Larson and Byron even managed to run the same time on a lap (top lap overall) down to the one-hundredth of a second. Most weeks the Hendrick cars are fast and this week looks to be no different.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,800)

Starting Position: 5th

Larson is $1,100 more than the next driver in salary and I do not care. I want to play a ton of Larson on Sunday, maybe not 100%, but pretty damn close to that. Larson was great in practice on the long run which is key at a track where passing is difficult. In practice on Saturday, Larson was tops in 5, 10, and 15 lap average. Every week it seems like Kyle Larson and the 5 team dominate the field and this week should be no different. If you are playing cash you need LOCK Larson into your lineups and even in GPP’s, he is a must-play for me. His ownership could be lowered because of his price, so he could actually give you some small leverage on the field.

Kyle Busch ($9,900)

Starting Position: 2nd

Busch has a great history at Nashville in a lower series, including his win on Saturday. Any time a driver can get extra track time no matter the vehicle it is a good thing and that’s what we have with Busch. Coming into this weekend Busch has seven top 10’s in his last nine races, including his win at Kansas, and he has led laps in seven races out of nine as well.

William Byron ($9,700)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron has been one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series this season and I anticipate that consistency continues on Sunday. In 2021, Byron has an average finish of 5.4 and has finished top 10 in EVERY race outside of road courses and the Daytona 500. Byron was 2nd best in 5 lap average and 10th best in 10 lap average on Saturday as well as running an identical lap to Larson for top single lap speed overall.

Chase Elliott ($10,700)

Starting Position: 6th

After a sluggish start, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Champion has kicked it into full gear. Elliott has six straight top 10 finishes and four straight finishes of 3rd or better. At similar tracks this season with the same 750 HP package, Elliott has finishes of 3rd and 7th. As long as he can avoid the wrecks I can see Elliott coming home with a 7th straight top 10 and a 5th straight top 5.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,300 – P8), Kevin Harvick ($9,100 – P12), Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 – P35): Truex will be super chalk now that he is starting so far back and actually may be the safer play over Larson in cash now.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($8,600)

Starting Position: 26th

Reddick is another driver who had some seat time in a race this weekend in Nashville. On Saturday, Reddick ran in the Xfinity race and ended up finishing 15th driving the #31 for Jordan Anderson. Reddick ran a top 5 single lap speed in practice on Saturday in his #8 RCR Chevy and also had the 4th best 10 lap average. At Dover and Darlington this year Reddick has finishes of 8th and 12th.

Kurt Busch ($8,300)

Starting Position: 30th

Busch was good in practice on Saturday running the 6th best single lap speed but had a poor qualifying effort after slipping in turn 2. Kurt was able to test here at Nashville earlier this year so he has a small leg up on the field with that. At Dover earlier this year Busch came home with a 13th place finish would be a great finish today and put him in the optimal lineup for sure.

Ross Chastain ($7,600)

Starting Position: 19th

Chastain should be fast at Nashville on Sunday with some good place differential upside. In practice on Saturday, Chastain had the 4th best 5 lap average and the 2nd best 10 and 15 lap average. Chastain seems to have a car that gets faster as the laps tick off. One thing is Chastain could carry some ownership, based on his practice speed and poor qualifying effort, but I still want to have some exposure to him.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($8,100 – P28), Ryan Blaney ($8,700 – P10), Chris Buescher ($7,400 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P29: Newman will be the cash-game play in this tier today and should put out a solid performance today. In practice on Saturday Newman were top 10 in single lap and 10 lap avg
Daniel Suarez ($6,300) – P22: Suarez has been enjoying a good season in his first year in the #99. At Dover earlier this season Suarez finished 9th which is a good sign for how he can run on Sunday
Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P21: Wallace, like Suarez, had great success at Dover finishing 11th (season-best finish). In his last four races, Wallace has finished 14th or better in three.
Chase Briscoe ($6,200) – P16: Briscoe also tested here earlier this season and that could help him on Sunday. Looking at where he starts, Briscoe is a GPP play only.
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P24: Lajoie has been getting better over the last two months. In his last 8 races, Lajoie has finished 22nd or better in six of those races. Projects at sub 10% today making him one of my favorite GPP value targets
Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P20: Preece won the Truck race here on Friday and should hang around the top 20 most of the day. I love the price for Preece this week and that combined with track experience landed him on this list today.
JJ Yeley ($5,500) – P32: The veteran driver raced here twice this weekend. He has decent upside if you need the savings
Quin Houff ($4,500) – P39: I rarely ever think Houff belongs on the track, let alone in your DFS lineup, but here we are. Houff starts dead last and with attrition, he could finish around the low 30’s which would make value easily at his low price.

4 years ago 0 comments

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