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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Bristol 9/18

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

It’s Bristol week! Bristol may be a short track, but it is one the fastest shorts tracks in America. We have 500, yes FIVE HUNDRED laps of dominator points to collect on Saturday. Picking our dominators will be of the utmost importance on Saturday. This is a race where you should roster three dominators on both sites.

One of the most important things when looking at drivers for Bristol is experience. Drivers who have run well here usually always do. One driver who we were all over last week was race winner Martin Truex Jr. but this week he isn’t going to be in this article.

Another thing to keep in mind for this track is how well drivers have run with the 750 HP package at ovals. When looking over the recent history we will see that the last three Bristol races have been won by someone starting inside the top 4. Over the last ten years, only three times in 20 races have someone starting lower than 12th won.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,300)

Starting Position: 5th

After a bad stretch in 2015-16, Kyle Larson has been dominating at Bristol. In six races since 2017, Larson has finished lower than 9th once and has led 551 laps. Larson was this good at Bristol in equipment that isn’t on par with what he is now. Larson is my pick to win this race and we could realistically lead 300 laps.

Denny Hamlin ($10,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

Hamlin is another great performer at Bristol from the pole here in 2019. This season nobody has been faster in the 750 package at ovals than Hamlin. I like how Hamlin has been driving since the playoffs started and he will be in contention all night. I love pairing Hamlin and Larson together as they have the potential to dominate this race and lead 75% or more of the 500 laps in this race.

Kevin Harvick ($9,000)

Starting Position: 8th

I know, not who you were expecting. I wasn’t either, and honestly, I don’t remember the last time I wrote Harvick up in my article. But, when you look at how good Harvick has been at Bristol and with the 750 HP Package it is hard to ignore him. Last season at this race, Harvick led 226 and won the race. Harvick also has the 5th best speed rankings with this package at ovals this season. Harvick should be a threat for the win here again, but with his salary being so low, he should be optimal with a top 10.

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Elliott has become an elite driver at Bristol over the last 12-18 months. Last season Elliott finished 7th in this race and led 23 laps. Elliott has not won a points race at Bristol, but he did win the All-Star race here in 2020. Over the previous five Bristol races, nobody has been better. Elliott has the best driver rating, has led an average of 58.8 laps per race (led no less than 23 in any of the five), and has the best average running position. On Saturday look for Elliott to be one of the highest-scoring drivers on both sites.

Other Option: William Byron ($9,200 – P14): Love his potential upside here and needs to run well to advance so he will be aggressive. Ryan Blaney ($9,400 – P7), Kyle Busch ($11,500 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Dillon ($8,200)

Starting Position: 18th

Dillon didn’t originally pop off the page at me, but when you look at where he starts and where he has been finishing at Bristol he should’ve. In his last six races, Dillon has finished in the top 15 five times. Usually, I would like guys like Dillon to be lower-priced, but his salary will most likely keep his ownership down both sites, but especially DK. I see Austin as a top 10 upside, but more realistically finishing somewhere between 12th and 15th.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500)

Starting Position: 28th

Wallace is another driver I expect to be low-owned, but only on DK. FanDuel has him priced too low, but DK priced him appropriately. In his six career races at Bristol, Wallace has only wrecked once and outside of that race has never finished lower than 22nd. Wallace also has three finished of 16th or better, all of this in lesser equipment.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600)

Starting Position: 10th

Keselowski is a solid performer at Bristol, including his victory here last spring. I know he has not been running well of late, so this is a semi risky play but he has some good upside. No driver has averaged more laps led here in the past two seasons at Bristol and Keselowski has led in all four of those races.

Other Options: Ross Chastain ($7,800 – P17): Chastain and Dillon have similar projections for this race so if you need the salary relief Chastain is a great pivot. Aric Almirola ($7,300 – P12), Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200 – P23), Christopher Bell ($8,800 – P6)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 – P19) is really only an option for me on FanDuel. I don’t love the price on DK, but on Fanduel he fits perfect for three dominator builds.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P27: Preece seems to have Bristols number. He has only raced here four times in a Cup car and has never finished lower than 25th (his first race) and even finished 9th here last year at this race. Preece has an average finish position of 13th in the last three races here.
Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P21: Suarez has been great at Bristol in his career. Outside of last season when he drove the #96 (TERRIBLE car), Suarez has finished no lower than 18th and has an avg finish of 13th
Chris Buescher ($6,700) – P25: Buescher and the 17 team have been coming home with some great finishes lately. Over the last 6 races, Buescher has an avg finish of 13.2 and also has the 20th best speed ranking with this engine package in 2021.
Erik Jones ($6,400) – P22: Jones is a GPP play this week and is not really safe for anything else. In his career, Jones has performed well, but that was in JGR equipment. I expect Jones to be a high teens driver on Saturday.
Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P31: Lajoie is one of the better, and safer, place differential plays on this slate. Lajoie has been a high teens driver of late and I expect much of the same Saturday.
Garrett Smithley ($4,700) – P36: I don’t love the play, but I need to try and squeeze as many dominators in my builds as possible and Smithley helps with that. In two races here he has finishes of 26th and 32nd, both of which would make him hit value on Saturday. It’s a risky play, but he starts second to last so he can’t hurt too bad.
Cole Custer ($6,900) – P26: Custer is slightly expensive, but the upside is there. I wouldn’t play him on FD, I think his salary is a little too high there. Custer is a mid to low 20’s driver with top 20 upside.
Michael McDowell ($5,400) – P16: McDowell is super risky and this team has been bad of late. With that being said, McDowell NEEDS a win to advance in the playoffs so if they are around at the end of the race he will be aggresive trying to get to the front.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Bristol 9/17

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week the Xfinity Series heads to the “Last Great Colosseum” for some night racing from Bristol! As we saw early on in the Truck Series, there will be wrecks and cars spinning towards the back of the field.

Friday night’s race will be 300 laps, so similar to Richmond last week, we want dominators. Fortunately, we have some good drivers up front and some fair pricing throughout the field. With the way pricing is, you can build lineups with 3-4 high-priced drivers who will offer you a mix of lap leaders and place differential upside plays.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Allgaier ($10,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

Allgaier doesn’t project as the highest-scoring driver (only 3 points behind the top) but he should be considered one of the best options to dominate this race. With teammate Noah Gragson ($10,200 – P1) winning back-to-back races the JRM garage is on fire and I think it’s Allgaier’s turn on Friday. Since joining JRM in 2016, Allgaier has no wins (he does own a win here) but he does own six top 5’s and seven top 10’s in ten races.

Austin Cindric ($11,200)

Starting Position: 9th

Cindric offers up some place differential upside this week and isn’t the highest-priced driver. I know it’s not much PD, but a plus 8, if he wins, will make a huge difference. Last season in the first race here, Cindric wrecked out early, but in the other three races over the past two seasons, he fared much better. In those three races, Cindric has finishes of 6th, 5th, and 3rd. I like Cindric’s chance of leading some laps and getting a top 5 on Friday.

Ty Gibbs ($11,900)

Starting Position: 3rd

Gibbs won the ARCA race here at Bristol on Thursday night and will be a contender on Friday as well. In his two short track races this season, Gibbs has finishes of 7th (last week at Richmond) and 4th earlier this season at Martinsville. Gibbs will most likely pressure Gragson and Allgaier early for the lead and I expect him to lead a good portion of this race if he can get out front.

Ty Dillon ($9,000)

Starting Position: 31st

I expect Ty Dillon to be chalky in the #23 Our Motorsports car this week, but he offers some great place differential that I don’t mind eating this chalk. In four races in an Our Motorsports car this season, Dillon has finished no worse than 13th, and in the #23 he has finishes of 7th and 5th.

Other Options: Noah Gragson ($10,200 – P1): GPP only, AJ Allmendinger ($10,500 – P10), Daniel Hemric ($9,200 – P4): Another good option to lead laps and maybe win his first race EVER.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brett Moffitt ($8,500)

Starting Position: 20th

Moffitt does not have a lot of experience when it comes to the Xfinity Series at Bristol and short tracks in general. Looking back at his Truck Series career here, Moffitt has three top 2 finishes in four races. Moffitt knows how to work in Bristol and I expect a top 10 from Moffit on Friday night.

Myatt Snider ($7,800)

Starting Position: 17th

Last season Snider ran two races here at Bristol with two very different outcomes. In the second race in 2020, Snider was in the #93 car and had engine problems early and finished 35th. But the day before when Snider was in the RCR car he will be in on Friday he came from starting P22 to finish 5th. After a rough patch in the middle of the season, Snider has three top 10’s in his last five races.

Michael Annett ($8,300)

Starting Position: 15th

Last season Annett wrecked on back-to-back days at Bristol but that does not show how well he can run here. Before 2020, Annett had three straight top 10 finishes here. In six races since joining JRM in 2017, Annett has an average finish of 11.1 if you take out the wrecks last season. Annett is a fringe top 10 driver on Friday.

Other Options: Justin Halley ($8,700 – P5), Riley Herbst ($8,100 – P8), BJ McLeod ($7,200 – P37): Extremely safe and solid PD upside. If you can make him fit, do it. I anticipate he goes overlooked but he is in a car that can finish low 20’s. Landon Cassill ($7,700 – P35)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chad Finchum ($5,100) – P38: Could be the best place differential play on this slate. Finchum is in the #61 which has mid 20’s upside.
Jade Buford ($5,700) – P30: Buford has six finishes of 21st or better since Atlanta (8 races).
Alex Labbe ($5,900) – P14: I think Labbe gets completely overlooked on Friday night which is exactly what makes him a great multi-entry GPP play. Labbe either wrecks or finishes top 13 here, let’s hope for another 13th place finish or better.
Joe Graf Jr. ($5,300) – P36: He’s super cheap, fits great with 3-4 dominator builds and can’t hurt you too bad. Take a shot if you need the savings.
Jeremy Clements ($6,700) – P13: Five straight finishes of 13th or better at Bristol, including a top 10 and a top 5.
Bayley Currey ($5,600) – P40: Buyer beware. Currey starts last and is cheap but his car is not good. If he can just stay out of trouble he has top 30 potential, but that’s a big maybe.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Bristol 9/16

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome to (the real) Bristol week! After racing on the “dirt” at Bristol earlier this season, the Truck Series returns to Bristol for a traditional short track race on the pavement.

I want to just start by talking about place differential since I mentioned it in discord on Wednesday night. We must be careful about what drivers starting towards the back that we use on Thursday. Being that this is a short track, certain trucks just don’t have the speed to move through the field fast enough to avoid going one lap (or more) early in this race. There will be some wrecks throughout the field so there is a chance some can pick up a few spots, but they could just end up locked into a spot and not move all race. A driver like that could kill your team early, but I do have a few drivers starting towards the back that are in good enough equipment to stay on the lead lap for a good portion of this race.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000)

Starting Position: 2nd

Rinse and repeat.

Play Nemechek.

This is what we do every week. Nemechek will lead a good amount of the 250 laps on Thursday and will compete for the win. Outside of the one time he wrecked here, Nemechek has finished no worse than 8th and has three top 5’s in five races.

*Sheldon Creed ($**10,600)*

Starting Position: 1st

See above.

Creed has won back-to-back races and will look to sweep the first round of the playoffs on Thursday and it’s kind of hard to doubt him. I really believe that we could see Creed and Nemechek lead 200 of the 250 laps in this race on Thursday. Pricing is kind of soft which means playing these together is pretty easy.

Sam Mayer ($11,900)

Starting Position: 39th

Even at this high price, I think Mayer could be chalky because of the plethora of cheaper options in this race. As I mentioned, pricing is soft this week so fitting all three of these drivers in is pretty feasible. I will have at least of these drivers in every lineup and will have all three in some as well. At this race last year, Mayer led 30 laps on his way to victory lane.

Tyler Ankrum ($9,000)

Starting Position: 18th

Ankrum finished 7th here in 2020 and led 53 laps in the process. Overall in his career, Ankrum has three top 10’s and two top 5’s in 9 short-track races. Ankrum is a top 10 candidate and if his truck doesn’t betray him he could even lead a few laps and there at the end racing for a win. With everyone focused on the top guys in the tier, I think Ankrum goes completely overlooked.

Other Options: Grand Enfinger ($9,400 – P6): Enfinger is the 98 ThorSport truck which is the better of the two he drives. Should finish top 10. Parker Kligerman ($10,300 – P14), Zane Smith ($9,700 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ben Rhodes ($8,800)

Starting Position: 11th

Ben Rhodes under $9K starting from P11 seems is pretty ridiculous. I expect Rhodes to be higher owned for those not rostering three top tier drivers. Rhodes has performed exceptionally well at Bristol in his career with four top 10’s and a top 5 in six career races here. At the end of the day, I expect Rhodes to finish with his fifth top 10 at Bristol.

Chandler Smith ($8,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Smith is just 19 years old but seems to have a grip on how to race at Bristol. In just two races here, Smith has two top 5’s including a second-place finish here in 2019. Smith has become something of a short track specialist in the Truck Series. In five career short track races, Smith has four top 10’s and three top 5’s. It’s hard to see Smith finishing anywhere outside the top 10 on Thursday.

Timmy Hill ($7,300)

Starting Position: 32nd

Timmy Hill is another driver who has done very well in a small sample size at Bristol. In two career Truck Series races, Hill has finishes of 17th (2019) and 20th (2020) which would be more than enough for him to make value on Thursday. Hill is probably too cheap, so he could be popular but there are enough ways to be different in this race that I am not worried about his ownership.

Other Options: Taylor Gray ($8,100 – P35), Johnny Sauter ($8,400 – P13), Matt Crafton ($8,500 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Ryan Truex ($5,400) – P26: Truex has eight top 20’s in his last ten races.
Clay Greenfield ($6,800) – P34: It’s been 11 years since Greenfield finished higher than 20th, but he doesn’t need that to be optimal. Greenfield as four straight mid to high 20’s at Bristol.
Tate Fogleman ($4,800) – P31: Fogleman is a a mid 20’s driver who, if the race falls his way, could end up with a top 10
Cory Roper ($6,100) – P37: Roper is a good upside play on Thursday. Ir has been four years since Roper raced here, but he finished 25th in that race.
Hailie Deegan ($6,600) – P23: Deegan has not raced here in a Truck yet, but she does have a 6th place finish in the ARCA Series.
Colby Howard ($6,300) – P20
Chase Purdy ($5,900) – P19
Danny Bohn ($5,000) – P22: Bohn is cheap, but risky.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Richmond 9/11

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

September 11th – 20 years later

Before I get into the breakdown for this race I just want to reflect on what this day means for our country. As an American and a native New Yorker, I never forget the horrible acts of violence that were perpetrated against our country on this day 20 years ago. I always think about the people who lost their lives and the families who lost someone close to them. We must also remember the brave people who helped keep the third plane from killing thousands of more innocent American citizens on this day as well. Just as important are the thousands of firefighters, EMS workers, and police officers who ran into the buildings while others ran out trying to save lives. This is a sad day of remembrance for our country, but we must never forget the lives lost on this day.

Richmond Raceway Breakdown:

Richmond at night is a fun short-track race. This is also a 400 lap race so we will be looking to load up on the dominators for this one. Both Fanduel and DraftKings did a bad job(?) of pricing making our builds relatively easy this week. First things first if you’re playing on Fanduel, don’t overthink it and just play JJ Yeley at $2K. He will be chalk but he starts dead last and makes the rest of your build a piece of cake.

There are a few place differential options I really like, and some that we will be playing because the sites make us by pricing them stupidly. Those are the easy plays, finding the right dominators to pair them with isn’t, but that is what I am here for.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

Starting Position: 2nd

Hamlin is fresh off his first victory of the season but I don’t see him sitting back and taking it easy on Saturday night. He may have already clinched his spot in the second round of the playoffs but Hamlin will be out for his second win at Richmond. Earlier this season Hamlin led 207 laps while finishing second. In his career here, Hamlin has three victories and ten finishes of 6th or better in the last twelve races at Richmond. Hamlin is sure to get upfront here and led a high number of laps and compete for the win.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,200)

Starting Position: 3rd

Truex and Hamlin are pretty much 1a and 1b this week. Both drivers have driven exceptionally well here in their careers and you can’t go wrong with one or both (my preferred build) of them. Truex comes in with five straight top 5’s at Richmond including winning both races in 2019 (his only two wins here). Over that five-race span, Truex has led an astonishing 564 laps (112 avg per race). If we can get another 100+ laps led with a top 5 finish from MTJ on Saturday we should be sitting pretty in the green.

Joey Logano ($10,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Logano is another driver who has been excellent at Richmond in his career, especially in recent races. Coming into this race, Logano has not been great this season, but he did manage a top 10 last week at Darlington so hopefully, all is right with the 22 team and they are on the uptick. Logano has three top 3 finishes in the last four races at Richmond and also has a victory and six top 4 finishes in his last eight races here.

Kyle Larson ($11,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Larson won the fall race here in 2017 and since then he has a run of three top 10’s in the five races. Earlier this season Larson had a bad day at Richmond and came home two laps down in 18th. Larson is in play for me, but not as a potential winner, but as a top ten contender who could lead a good portion of the early part of this race. Larson has only the 10th best speed rating at short flat tracks this season.

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Starting Position: 15th

I know we have been burned by Kyle a few times this season but with a driver this talented it’s to not come back to him. It is not hard to see why I like Kyle here when you look at his history at this track. Busch is currently running a streak of seven straight top 10’s with two wins in that span. If you want to go back even further, Busch has ten top 10’s in his last eleven races at Richmond. While he is expensive, Busch offers place differential upside with potential dominator ability. We have so much value that you can easily fit three dominator builds with Busch.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($9,600 – P10) – Bell has been great on short flat tracks this season with an avg finish of 5th there and the third-best speed ranking. Brad Keselowski ($9,300 – P6), Chase Elliott ($11,200 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ross Chastain ($7,200)

Starting Position: 17th

Chastain is criminally cheap for the potential upside in this race. Earlier this season, Chastain finished 15th here at Richmond and he has actually improved his finishes at similar track types. Chastain finished 8th at New Hampshire which was the last short flat track the series visited. I see Chastain as a top 10 upside play.

Aric Almirola ($7,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Almirola is going to be very low-owned on Saturday night and could be a difference-maker in your lineups. Earlier this season at Richmond, Almirola finished 6th while running the 8th best speed ranking and the 8th best driver late in a run. Almirola is not someone who will be on many people’s radars, especially starting so high. Just remember Almirola won his spot in the playoffs at New Hampshire, another short flat track.

Austin Dillon ($8,400)

Starting Position: 19th

Austin Dillon has stated that Richmond is one of his favorite tracks and the results bear that out. Dillon has four top 10’s in six races since he ran a Goodyear tire test here in 2017. In 2019 when Dillon finished 22nd, he was involved in an early race wreck that left him four laps down and fighting back through the field. I see Dillon as a top 10 driver, with top 5 upside on Sunday.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,900 – P12) – Bowman won the spring race here. Cole Custer ($7,300 – P21), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P28) – Matty D is once again a PD play, but the price is higher than I would’ve liked.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,700) – P23: Stenhouse is pretty good at this track type with an avg finish 14.7 and an avg speed ranking of 16th. I see Stenhouse as low to mid teens driver today
Ryan Newman ($6,000) – P24: Recent history shows Newman has not been great at Richmond, but career wise this is one of his better tracks. Newman has been good recently this season with three top 15 finishes in his last 4 races.
Daniel Suarez ($6,90) – P22: Richmond is one of Suarez’s better tracks. If you subract his 2020 finish here (uncompetitive car) Suarez has finished 18th or better in every race here and has an avg finish of 12.7.
Erik Jones ($6,600) – P31: Here we go again, Erik Jones is, on paper, a good play today. Jones has finished 19th (twice) and 20th at the three flat tracks this season and has an avg speed ranking of 22nd.
JJ Yeley ($5,300) – P37: Yeley starts dead last today and is super cheap (on both sites). This season in 5 races in the #53 car Yeley has an average finish of 27th. I look for Yeley to be a mid 20’s driver this week.
Corey Lajoie ($5,500) – P25: Lajoie should finish right around where he starts, which would be good value for his salary. At the last two similar tracks, Lajoie has finished 21st and 23rd.
Chase Briscoe ($6,500) – P26: Briscoe has improved throughout the season and looks like a top 25 car on Saturday. This season at similar track types Briscoe has an avg finish of 23.7
Justin Haley ($5,200) – P29: Haley only has one Cup start here and it only lasted one lap. But at similar tracks this season, Haley has finishes of 24th and 28th. Haley has been good here in the Xfinity Series and should been viewed as a mid 20’s finisher on Saturday.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Richmond 9/11

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

September 11th – 20 years later

Richmond Raceway Breakdown:

This will be a difficult race to build lineups for, but hey that’s what I’m here for! We have a lot of drivers in the top tier that we will want to roster, but unfortunately, we cannot fit them all in. On the flip side, the value section for this race is, well, absolute garbage. There are not many great plays in that price tier so we will have to be particular with what low price drivers we target on Saturday.

Richmond is a short track which means we have plenty of dominator points available in this race. With 250 laps in this race, we will need to have at least 2 drivers who can lead laps and get us as many of these points as possible. We need to weigh using place differential points versus dominator points but I think I have found a build type that will satisfy both.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12,000)

Starting Position: 30th

This is Junior’s only race and he will be in his own team’s #8 car. Junior only picks one race per season to run in the Xfinity Series as a way to get a feel for his team’s cars and ability as well as feeding that itch of his to keep racing. Since 2018 when Earnhardt started running one race per season he has finished top 5 every time including a 4th place finish here at Richmond. Junior pick tracks he generally runs really well at, Richmond being one his best all time. Dale Jr. has run eight races at Richmond in an Xfinity car and has only finished outside the top 10 once (rear axle issue) and has a 50% win rate here. Junior may be popular but he will more than likely be the highest-scoring driver meaning he will be tough to fade on Saturday.

Austin Cindric ($10,300)

Starting Position: 1st

So, if Dale Earnhardt Junior is the place differential play we need then Cindric is the dominator I want to pair with him. Cindric may not own a victory here at Richmond but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been outstanding here. In six races at Richmond, Cindric has never finished lower than 13th and has two 2nd place finishes to his record. Cindric has four top 5 finishes as well and will be the early dominator in this race.

Justin Allgaier ($9,700)

Starting Position: 5th

But wait, aren’t there better options in this tier? Where are Berry, and Gibbs, and Nemechek? There will be some info on them to follow, but Allgaier is a guy I see being the Noah Gragson of last week. Allgaier will come in at lower ownership, be a potential dominator and winner of this race. Last season one man swept both races here at Richmond, yep that man was Justin Allgaier. Allgaier also has four straight top 5 finishes at Richmond. So while the majority of people will jump to the place differential plays above Allgaier, we will take the low ownership and watch them all have to play under $5K value plays when we won’t.

Ty Gibbs ($11,200)

Starting Position: 15th

I mentioned Gibbs above as someone who will be popular and I believe he will but he also has the outside chance of dominating this race. If you’ve been with us all season then you’ve seen what the 18-year-old can do in an Xfinity car. Now, one thing that does worry me is that Gibbs has two straight finishes outside the top 10 after a string where he had five top 5’s in six races. I don’t know if he has hit a wall or something just wasn’t right at those races but I think Gibbs gets back on track (pun intended) on Saturday. In 23 career ARCA races on short tracks, Gibbs has 21 top 10’s and seven victories. This season at two short tracks in the Xfinity Series he has a 2nd and a 4th place finish.

Both Josh Berry ($11,600 – P33) and John Hunter Nemechek ($10,700 – P27) are good, safe plays this week. They both project for good point days at much lower than expected ownership. I think if you are playing straight GPP’s then you can take the risk, but in cash or Single Entry, I would probably fade. All four drivers mentioned above them are in much better equipment and because of this, I rank them above Berry and JHN. I may have exposure to both on Saturday but not much.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($10,000 – P12) – Lower owned pivot off Cindric. He has 3 top 10’s in 4 races here. AJ Allmendinger ($9,100 – P8)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

JJ Yeley ($7,400)

Starting Position: 29th

Yeley is back in the #17 for this weekend’s race and should be a contender for another top 20. In his nine races this season in the Xfinity Series, Yeley has yet to finish lower than 24th and has four top 15 finishes. Yeley will be a semi-chalky play, but he is the salary relief that we need to help fit the top-tier guys we want in.

Noah Gragson ($8,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Gragson is coming off a great win last week at Darlington and should be in the mix come Saturday again. In five starts here at Richmond, Gragson has only finished lower than 8th once, a 22nd place finish in 2019. If you take out that poor finish because of pit road issues, Gragson’s average finish at Richmond is 5.5.

Sam Mayer ($8,500)

Starting Position: 38th

Let me wrap up the love fest for JRM this week with a JRM adjacent car. Mayer was bumped by his owner out of the 8 and into the #99 BJ McLeod car this week. Even though this is a BJM car, it will be prepared by Jr. Motorsports and have a Hendrick-trained pit crew (just like the rest of the JRM cars do). Mayer has great place differential upside and is a decent pivot for GPP’s off of Earnhardt.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($8,100 – P4) – Finished 2nd and 6th here last year. Has a chance to lead some laps and pull out a top 5 at low ownership. Landon Cassill ($7,800 – P31) – If you have the extra salary Cassill is a similar play to Yeley. Riley Herbst ($7,900 – P20), Michael Annett ($7,100 – P10)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

David Starr ($5,400) – P37: Value is tough this week, Starr is cheap and safe. I don’t love it, or anyone in this tier, but Starr should get you there.
Brandon Brown ($6,700) – P17: Brown projects as the highest scoring driver in this tier, but his salary makes him difficult to play. If you want to fade the mid tier, then I’d go Brown.
Stephen Leicht ($5,500) – P36: Similar to Starr, Leicht is cheap enough and starts far enough back in the field to be worth playing
CJ McLaughlin ($5,000) – P39: Are you seeing a trend? Yep, McLaughlin starts next to last and is cheap. He checks the boxes.
Josh Williams ($5,900) – P14: I really like Williams this week. I know this is a tough sell based on where he starts, but there is some upside here. Williams has only finished lower than 18th once in the last 8 races (22nd at New Hampshire) and should see sub 5% ownership.
Spencer Boyd ($5,200) – P35: Slightly risky because he could lose positions but if attrition is in his favor a top 30 is in the cards.
Mason Massey ($5,700) – P34: Massey is back in the 78 this week so he gets a downgrade in a equipment, but a top 25 is not out of the question.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Darlington 9/5

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week the Cup Series is at Darlington Raceway, one of the most difficult race tracks on the NASCAR circuit. Darlington is known as the “Lady in Black” or “The Track Too Tough to Tame” by most fans and drivers. This is a place where the high line is usually the best way to run and a lot of these cars will have the “Darlington Stripe” when it’s all said and done.

Unlike the Xfinity race on Saturday, our builds will not be straight place differential builds. Two drivers are must play in my book for their place differential upside, but outside of them, it is about finishing position and dominator points. Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000) led 248 of 293 laps here in May meaning that if you didn’t roster him you weren’t having a good day. This is why I say we need to look for drivers who can lead a lot of laps and pick up those dominator points. Truex is definitely someone who can do that again, but he isn’t the only one.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Larson has excelled at Darlington in his career and has finished inside the top 3 in four of his last five trips here. Included in that is his 2nd place finish here in May. Larson has also faired really well at high tire wear tracks this season. If you remove his poor finish at Atlanta 2 (late pit road penalty caused him to finish 18th) he has an average finish of 2.7 far and away the best in the series. Larson has never won here, but that will change on Sunday I believe. There are 367 laps to pick up dominator points on and there is a good chance Larson leads a lot of those laps on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Starting Position: 10th

As I mentioned in the open, Truex absolutely dominated this race in the spring and will most likely once again be fighting for the win at the need. Truex is a two-time winner here at Darlington and had a chance to win this race last fall but Truex and Elliott wrecked while racing for the lead. Truex also dominated that race leading 196 laps and winning both the first and second stage. This season at similar tracks, MTJ has an average finish of 4th and has the 2nd best speed ranking.

Denny Hamlin ($9,500)

Starting Position: 2nd

Hamlin is a three-time winner at Darlington and while he is winless this season, there is a good chance Hamlin could get his first victory in 2021 on Sunday. This season at high tire wear tracks, Hamlin has the 5th best speed ranking. Hamlin has top 5’s in three of his last four races at Darlington as well.

Kyle Busch ($11,200)

Starting Position: 12th

This season at similar track types Kyle Busch has been outstanding. Busch is the only driver to finish top 10 in every race at a high tire wear track and has an average finish of 3.3 in the last three. It has been 13 years since Busch won a race here, but since 2010 he has only finished worse than 11th one time (1st race in 2020). Busch has an average speed ranking of 2.3 at these track types and has the #1 overall speed ranking this season.

Other Options: William Byron ($10,700 – P14), Kevin Harvick ($9,800 – P9) Joey Logano ($10,100 – P11), Chase Elliott ($9,200 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($7,800)

Starting Position: 34th

I know everyone is programmed to avoid the chalk, but in NASCAR that is not the case. Buescher will be a high owned play, but he also has the potential to be the top overall play which you cannot fade and expect to get a takedown. Buescher ran exceptional well here at Darlington in the spring finishing 9th. Not only did he finish well, Buescher also ran well throughout the race. Buescher had the 8th best speed late in a run (VERY important at high tire wear tracks), 9th fastest speed ranking, and had an average running position of 11.6. There is a good chance Buescher can finish with another top 10 here, but I view him more as a mid-teens play.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700)

Starting Position: 30th

DiBenedetto had a great run going at Daytona, and then he got caught up in the big one late in the race. Matty D is racing for a job next season so he will be trying to put on a show and potentially steal a win in this race. Similar to Buescher, DiBenedetto will be a chalky play but is another play that you can’t ignore. Heading into Daytona, DiBenedetto had an average finish of 8.6 and over has last five at Darlington he has three finishes of 14th or better. I see the 21 car as a mid to high teens driver on Sunday. If you want to fade of him or Buescher, DiBenedetto would be m choice, but I plan on having plenty of both.

There is a log jam of drivers in this tier that all seem to project out the same for me.

All four of Chastain, Blaney, Bell, and Dillon project for similar point totals (39.15-39.85) and ownership (19% – 26%). Ross Chastain would be my favorite play of the four followed but Austin Dillon. Blaney and Bell are good GPP options but they have a great down side than Dillon and Chastain

Other Options: Cole Custer ($7,100 – P31)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ricky Stenhouse ($6,900) – P29: Stenhouse doesn’t have a great recent history at Darlington, but his team has been running well of late. Since Nashville (June 20th), Stenhouse has six top 15 finishes and a top 10 in 10 races.
Chase Briscoe ($6,300) – P24: Briscoe and the 14 team have been stradily improving throughout the season and should be a low teens driver on Sunday. Last time the series was here, Briscoe finished 11th.
Ryan Newman ($5,700) -P19: Darlington is one of Newman’s best tracks, even this late in his career. In his last four races here, Newman has an average finish of 13.5 and has finished no worse than 15th.
Erik Jones ($6,100) – P22: Darlington is probably Jones’s best track and before he made the downgrade in equipment he had never finished lower than 8th. This season he came home 18th, but was running right outside the top 15 before he hit the wall and had to make an unscheduled pitstop.
Bubba Wallace ($6,000) – P17: Wallace had himself a day with a P2 finish at Daytona last week. I think he keeps this momentum going and earns himself a top 15 on Sunday. At the last high tire wear track (Atlanta) Wallace finished 14th, I think he can duplicate that or better it on Sunday.
& 7. Corey Lajoie ($5,500 – P25) & Anthony Alfredo ($5,800 – P32): Both of these drivers are pure place differential plays for cheap. I don’t love either but they are pretty safe plays that will be sub 10% owned.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Darlington 9/5

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

After a fun day at Darlington on Saturday, we are back for a Sunday double dip with the Truck Series kicking it all off. Unlike in the Xfinity Series race we aren’t building Daytona-Esque lineups with at least 5 place differential plays. Since this is a playoff race the top drivers in the series are all starting inside the top 10.

Looking at the projections for Sunday’s race, nine of the top 10 drivers in projected points start inside the top 12 (Parker Kligerman P34 is the only exception). Saturday was the exact reverse of this with all of the top 5 in projected points starting from P14 and back. I mentioned in Discord that it would be a different strategy than we saw on Saturday and that is we aren’t loading up on PD plays, but instead, we are looking to find drivers who will lead laps and finish top 5 with maybe 1-2 place differential plays. This race is actually longer than the Xfinity was (183 laps to 147) so that is also why we are looking for dominator points because of the increase in them for this race.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,300)

Starting Position: 6th

This is pretty much a broken record in 2021, but John Hunter Nemechek is the top play on this slate, again. It is hard to deny Nemechek with the season he has had with five wins, nine top 5’s, and twelve top 10’s in just 16 races. Nemechek has only raced in the Truck Series at Darlington once and that was this season where he led 65 of 147 laps but ended up finishing 8th. Coming into Sunday Nemechek is the favorite to win this race and championship and he could easily lead 70-80 laps and win this race.

Nemechek is all but a lock for a top 5 and some dominator points and even though he will be the highest owned driver I feel he is a must-play because he should also be the highest-scoring driver and it is nearly impossible to get a takedown in NASCAR without that driver.

*Sheldon Creed ($**10,900)*

Starting Position: 1st

Well, if it’s not JHN at that top of the list it’s usually this man. Creed won the title in 2020 and is looking like he will be tough to beat out for it this season. Creed led 82 laps at this race last season but finished 18th after some late-race miscues, but he made up for it earlier this season. Back in May of this year, Creed only led 7 laps, but he led the most important one and won the race. Nemechek should dominate the middle or end of this race, but early on Creed is the man to get those dominator points and then be around the front at the end of the race.

Ben Rhodes ($9,400)

Starting Position: 3rd

If we want to have a roster that could have the two best plays in the race we need to find some “value” in this top tier and Ben Rhodes is that man. Earlier this season, Rhodes finished second to Creed and led 34 laps. In two races here at Darlington, Rhodes has a win and that second-place finish from earlier this season. I know it’s a small sample size, but Darlington is a tough track so if a driver seems to have a hang of how to drive here and is in equipment as good as Rhodes’s is (ThorSport) he is someone you need to consider.

Parker Kligerman ($9,600)

Starting Position: 34th

If you are unsure of playing three drivers starting in the top 6 in your lineup and want a safer play, who oddly isn’t projected to be over 30% owned (24 pOwn%) then Kligerman is your guy. Kligerman was one of 16 trucks that didn’t finish the race here earlier this season but in his last race here he did finish 14th. I don’t know how much Kligerman I will have but he is definitely a solid, safe upside play.

Other Options: Zane Smith ($10,600 – P10): Smith is projected as one of the lowest owned drivers in the top tier (pOwn% – 18%), Austin Hill ($10,300 – P7), Todd Gilliland ($9,900 – P8), Grant Enfinger ($10,100 – P12): Enfinger is expensive, but projects for sub 10% ownership.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Derek Kraus ($7,700)

Starting Position: 18th

Kraus had early issues that put him laps down early in the spring race here, but in 2020 he had a much better day at Darlington. In that 2020 race, Kraus came home with a 2nd place finish but only led 1 lap. Kraus projects for low 20’s ownership but I actually expect him to be under 20% since he typically is someone who gets overlooked. There are also three other drivers around Kraus’s price that I feel people will flock to in Greenfield, Davis, and Anderson for the presumed safety of their starting positions. Those three, while do offer potential place differential points, do not have the quality equipment and crew that Kraus has.

Tanner Gray ($7,400)

Starting Position: 22nd

Gray hasn’t been successful at Darlington, but he also wasn’t as experienced and wasn’t driving as well as he is currently. Over his last six races, Gray has five top 20’s and one top 10. The only poor finish for Gray was that ridiculous dirt race in Knoxville earlier this season. I see Gray as a low-owned high teens driver on Sunday.

Dylan Lupton ($7,600)

Starting Position: 11th

I expect Lupton to go practically unowned because of where he is starting. If you are playing cash games or SE then maybe he isn’t worth the risk, but he is in the KBM #51 so his equipment is top of the line. Lupton isn’t some young kid making his first start in a top series and he does have one Darlington race under his belt (Xfinity Series – 2017). I plan on having some exposure to Lupton, just not a lot as I am typically a SE player.

Other Options: Stewart Friesen ($8,300 – P4), Josh Berry ($8,700 – P20): expected to be sub 15% owned, Berry makes for a decent pivot off Kligerman, Chandler Smith ($8,900 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Tyler Hill ($5,800) – P21: Since the typical PD plays are priced WAY up, Hill is a solid driver who could pull out a top 20
Ryan Truex ($4,900) – P19: Truex has only one finish outside the top 20 since May 1st (10 races) and he is super cheap which helps fit the three dominators you need.
Austin Wayne Self ($5,500) – P16: Self has quietly been very consistent this season. In 16 races this season, Self has only 3 finishes lower than 20th. I expect Self to finish mid to high teens and make value easily.
Lawless Alan ($6,300) – P31: One of the better place differential plays on this slate because of price. Alan has only run 5 races this season, but he has finished all of them. Can’t ask for much more for this salary.
Tate Fogleman ($4,600) – P24: Fogleman is dirt cheap and just needs to finish right around where he starts to make value. Seems very doable.
Danny Bohn ($5,200) – P27: Bohn is another driver who has some PD upside for cheap.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Darlington 9/4/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week all three of NASCAR’s premier series are in Darlington, South Carolina. Darlington is an egg-shaped track that has two uniquely different ends. It is known as both the “Lady in Black” and “The Track Too Tough to Tame” by drivers.

On Saturday the Xfinity kicks off this triple-header weekend with a 200 mile 147 lap race. Earlier this season Justin Allgaier won here after leading only 10 laps. Three different drivers led at least 34 laps (Cindric, Gragson, and Hemric) but none of them was a factor in the end.

Lineup Construction:

Darlington is usually a track where the driver who starts near the front, ends up there but that was not the case back in May of this year. Eight drivers who started outside the top 10 finished in the top 10, and four drivers lower than 20th and ended up in the top 10. I see this race being much of the same base on the quality of drivers we have starting towards the middle and back of this field. My most likely path in most of my lineups will be to go with three drivers in the top tier and use the top-priced value tier plays as a pseudo-mid-tier this week. There are some options in the traditional mid-tier, but nothing that seems like a must-play.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Austin Cindric ($11,300)

Starting Position: 24th

Cindric led 34 laps at the spring race here but had the hopes of his first Darlington win dashed on a last-lap wreck. If you take Cindric’s average finish of 19.2 in five career races here at face value then you’ll be not getting the whole story. In five races here, Cindric has three finished of 12th or better, but he has two finished of 30th or worse which skew his average finish. Cindric is one of the favorites to win this race.

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

Starting Position: 14th

Another one of the favorites in this race has to be Denny Hamlin driving the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend. Everyone who has gotten behind the wheel of this car has been successful and I don’t expect Hamlin to be any different. In his Xfinity career, Hamlin has dominated at Darlington with five wins, nine top 5’s, and twelve top 10’s in thirteen races. Last season Hamlin led 31 laps and finished 5th at this race. I think Hamlin is a must-play, but he falls just a smidge behind Cindric because of the ten starting positions between them.

Austin Dillon ($10,800)

Starting Position: 35th

Dillon is the elite place differential play in this race on Saturday. Even though he is the best place differential play Dillon won’t be a threat to win this race, but he should pull a top 10. This will be Dillon’s fourth different car he has driven in the Xfinity Series in 2021. He has fared well in all the previous three so I don’t see why this week should be any different. My only concern would be Dillon fighting through early traffic in the back.

Both Brandon Jones ($10,600 – P25) and Tyler Reddick ($10,200 – P28) will factor into my lineups on Saturday. They both offer up great place differential upside and should be lower owned pivots off of the previous three drivers mentioned above. Jones has a win here and Reddick has two top 10’s in three races with an average finish of 7th.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Michael Annett ($8,100)

Starting Position: 19th

Annett is one of the only drivers in the mid-tier that looks playable on Saturday. Michael Annett comes in with back-to-back top 10’s at Darlington including his 7th place finish this season.

Brandon Brown ($7,600)

Starting Position: 23rd

Brown is probably the only other mid-tier driver I would consider in Saturday’s race. In his career, Brown has raced at Darlington six times with four top 20’s including his 13th and 17th place finishes last season. Brown is cheap enough where if he manages a top 15 on Saturday he will crush value.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

BJ McLeod ($6,700) – P39: McLeod is a veteran driver who knows how to finish well at Darlington. In his last four races here, McLeod has three top 20 finishes and he finished 26th in this same car in May.
Colin Garrett ($6,500) – P31: Garrett isn’t a veteran driver and has only raced at Darlington once, but he is in some good equipment. I like his upside for GPP’s
Mason Massey ($4,500) – P26: Massey is the 2Lock special in this race, meaning he is the lowest priced driver but has some good upside. Massey will be in the #17 for Rick Ware racing. This car has done well the majority of the season and I think Massey can manage a low 20’s finish.
Ryan Ellis ($5,800) – P36: Ellis ran this same car earlier this season and finished 16th. I don’t think a 16th place finish can be duplicated on Saturday but for sure he could finish top 25.
Ryan Vargas ($4,900) – P27: Ever since JD Motorsports swapped Landon Cassill for Vargas in the #6 car Vargas has been excelling. I really like the upside of Vargas and a top 20 is definitely in the cards.
Kyle Weatherman ($6,000) – P37: Weatherman has not been good at Darlington. In his two career races here but he is cheap and starts really far back so he is viable.
Timmy Hill ($5,200) – P29: Hill is super cheap and is a potential top 25 car. In his last three races here, Hill has finishes of 22nd or 23rd.
Jesse Little ($5,800) – P34: Little finished 18th at this race last season, and earlier this season he finished 32nd. If Little can land somewhere between those two finishes I will be happy.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Daytona 8/28

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to Daytona week, where the only thing that really matters is place differential. This week is different than any other oval or road course. High speeds, blocking, and drafting will lead to many, many wrecks. This is the last race of the regular season and what is typically a wild race will have the wild factor cranked to the max. There are multiple drivers trying to race their way into the final spot as well as the battle for the regular-season title. Both Kyle Larson ($9,000 – P1) and Denny Hamlin ($9,400 – P3) are in contention and this matters because of the playoff points earned for being the regular-season champion.

These wrecks that destroy multiple cars tend to happen in the front of the field because drivers are fighting for position so this is why we will generally play the place differential game. This race is a little different from the Xfinity race where we completely avoided the top 10, there are a couple of drivers who could be played.

Leaving Salary on the Table:

I know leaving salary on the table is a foreign concept to us DFS players, but in NASCAR, and especially at superspeedways, it is a necessary evil. When you look at the optimal lineup for that race you will notice that there was a substantial amount of salary remaining, in fact, there was $8,300 leftover. You will be tempted to upgrade in some spots with that much leftover, but you have to try and refrain. While talking about this weekend with other NASCAR people, it was said that if you like your lineup this weekend, you’re doing it wrong and I couldn’t agree more. You will build lineups this weekend and probably hate them and think you’ll need to make changes, but don’t. I will try to lead you on the right path to cashing this weekend.

As you can see below, you can leave anywhere from $1,000 to $2,400 on the table and get the takedown. With the way salaries were laid out for this race I think you could end up seeing an optimal with over $3,000 in leftover salary.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Joey Logano ($10,600)

Starting Position: 22nd

Logano is one of the best superspeedway racers in the series and had the Daytona 500 won until his teammate, Keselowski, spun him on the last lap. I expect Logano to be a top 5 finisher on Saturday night (weather permitting) and be in the lineup for most takedowns. Logano has the potential to lead some laps and even win this race and because of this, I plan on having plenty of exposure to him regardless of ownership.

Denny Hamlin ($9,400)

Starting Position: 3rd

I know Hamlin doesn’t fit my #StacktheBack narrative for this week but Hamlin has been in two straight optimal lineups at Daytona and I fully expect him to contend for the win on Saturday. Hamlin is a dominant performer at Daytona with nine top 5’s and three wins in the last 13 races.

Austin Dillon ($10,300)

Starting Position: 27th

Dillon will most likely be the most popular driver in this tier so I don’t blame you for fading him. I will have some exposure to Dillon, but he is semi-risky since he needs to win to get into the playoffs. Dillon has an average finish of 14.1 here in his last seven races including his win at the 2018 Daytona 500.

Aric Almirola ($9,300)

Starting Position: 19th

Almirola is another of the series best superspeedway drivers and is one of the best at handling the draft here. Earlier this season at the Duels, Almirola led 52 of 60 laps on his way to winning his duel. Unfortunately, Almirola got caught up in the big one on lap 13 of the 500 and that was the end of his day. Before this season Almirola had only 2 wins, both came at superspeedways.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kaz Grala ($8,900)

Starting Position: 38th

Grala is another driver who will be popular, but this one I don’t want to fade. At the Daytona 500 this season, Grala was having a great race before being caught up in a wreck with 85 laps remaining. Grala led 10 laps in February after starting from 40th, so getting through the field is no issue for Grala. I expect Grala to finish in the top 20, but if he avoids the potential carnage a top 10 could be on tap.

Corey Lajoie ($7,400)

Starting Position: 33rd

Lajoie is one of the best when it comes to avoiding the carnage at superspeedways, specifically Daytona. In his last four races at Daytona, Lajoie has three top 10 finishes. Lajoie is honestly too cheap for his upside, but I will eat the probable chalk here and not look back.

Landon Cassill ($7,100)

Starting Position: 39th

Cassill is quietly one of the best lower-priced drivers at Daytona. Since this race in July of 2015, Cassill has seven top 25 finishes in just eight races. Cassill is not in top-tier equipment but he is in the #96 Gaunt Bros. Toyota that has fared pretty well this season.

Other Options: Ross Chastain ($8,200 – P29): WAY too cheap for the upside here. Only reason I didn’t write him up more is because he will be chalky. Ryan Newman ($7,000 – P23): Newman is another good superspeedway guy who is priced lower than hw should given he has top 10 upside. Christopher Bell ($8,300 – P14), William Byron ($8,000 – P2), Daniel Suarez ($7,800 – P26), Ryan Blaney ($8,800 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P20: Bubba is the top value you play again this week and he shouldn’t be priced in this tier honestly. In eight races at Daytona, Wallace has only finished lower than 17th once and has three top 15’s in his last four.
Joey Gase ($5,000) – P37: How can you tell it’s a superspeedway week? Joey Gase is ranked in my article. Does Gase have good equipment? Not really. Is Gase a good driver? Not really. Is he good enough to drive around at the back and avoid all the carnage? Yes, yes he is. Gase has only finished outside the top 30 once in six starts, including a 20th place finish this year at the Daytona 500
Justin Haley ($5,500) – P28: Haley is a pretty great superspeedway racer and has two top 15 finishes in two Cup Series races at Daytona.
Garrett Smithley ($4,800) – P34: Smithley has never raced at Daytona in a Cup car, but he has had some small success at the Xfinity level.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,000) – P12: Stenhouse is risky starting 12th but he does have a win here.
David Starr ($6,200) – P40: Starr is in a bad, slow car but this could be to his advantage has he just still in the back and avoid the carnage on his way to a top 20
Erik Jones ($6,300) – P21: Jones has not been great of late at Daytona, but he is a decent pivot off the chalky driver.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Daytona 8/27/21

Richard Masana 4 years ago

written by Richard Masana

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome to Daytona week, where the only thing that really matters is place differential. This week is different than any other oval or road course. High speeds, blocking, and drafting will lead to many, many wrecks. In the opening race of the 2021 season only 22 cars of the 40 that started the race finished. These wrecks that destroy multiple cars tend to happen in the front of the field because drivers are fighting for position so this is why we will generally play the place differential game.

Going back to the opening race of the season in the Xfinity Series nobody who started higher than 15th was in the six in DKFP.

Leaving Salary on the Table:

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

When it comes to dominators this week there are actually some serious options. We will still be leaving salary on the table, at least in the build I will be leading you to with this article. I don’t think we have to leave almost $9,000 like was optimal in February, but you could realistically leave $2-3,000 on the table.

Chase Briscoe ($11,500)

Starting Position: 37th

Briscoe is going to be the chalk option on this slate but with reason. Briscoe is back in the #99 for BJ McLeod, this is the same car that he drove to a 6th place finish at Charlotte earlier this season. Because of his place differential upside, I thought DraftKings would’ve priced him higher, but they made him easily playable. This is a situation where you just need to eat the chalk and lock Briscoe into your lineups.

JJ Yeley ($9,200)

Starting Position: 34th

Yeley has been good in the #17 for Rick Ware Racing this season finishing at least 24th in all seven races he has run in the car. This is another example where we will probably have a popular driver, but for the place differential Yeley offers he is a safe upside play. I want to lock in the safer plays in this tier, get the drivers who offer the safest floors, and find a way to be different in the lower tiers.

Brandon Brown ($10,100)

Starting Position: 31st

Brown is a little overpriced but I think could keep his ownership down on Friday. Other options in this tier will garner more usage but probably not with the potential and track history that Brown has. Since 2019 (5 races), Brown has an average finish of 12.6 at Daytona with his worst finish coming in this race last year where he wrecked and finished 26th. Earlier this season here Brown finished 6th, so we know the upside is there, now we just need him to avoid the big ones and get us a top 10.

Other Options: Myatt Snider ($9,600 – P23), Sam Mayer ($10,400 -P22), Daniel Hemric ($10,700 – P21), Jason White ($9,000 – P35)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Cindric ($8,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Cindric either has a top 10, or he wrecks at Daytona. In his seven starts at Daytona in the Xfinity Series, Cindric has a win, three top 5’s, four top 10’s but also has three finishes of 25th or worse. I don’t plan on using too many drivers from this tier, and in my main build I won’t have any, but Cindric is far and away the best option in this tier.

Landon Cassill ($7,400)

Starting Position: 26th

While his previous history track history here isn’t great, Cassill is having a good season and offers decent upside. Cassill has the experience that the majority of this field doesn’t and that should help him avoid most of the carnage. Cassill did end up wrecking out in February here, but he still finished 23rd because he was able to make it through until getting caught up in the last wreck of the race.

Christopher Bell ($8,900)

Starting Position: 15th

Bell and Cindric kind of fit the same mold this week, both are priced in the $8,000 range and start in the middle of the pack. Both Bell and Cindric are also safe-ish pivots off of the chalkier $9K plays in the top tier. Bell has run four races in the Xfinity Series here and outside of his first race where he wrecked 11 laps in he has never finished lower than 6th.

Other Options: Alex Labbe ($7,000 – P25), Justin Haley ($8,600 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Timothy Viens ($5,500) – P40: Viens starts dead last and is cheap, what’s not to love?
Spencer Boyd ($5,300) – P38: Another driver who starts in the back and is cheap. Are you starting to notice a trend?
Caesar Bacarella ($6,000) – P36: Bacarella is a superspeedway “ringer” who has top 20 upside.
David Starr ($6,500) – Since 2018 (5 races) Starr has three top 20’s at Daytona and wrecked in his other two races.
Joe Graf Jr. ($6,100) – P39: Graf has only finished once in four races at Daytona, which was earlier this season. Starting 39th we just need Graf to avoid a few wrecks and he should be good for a top 25.
Colby Howard ($6,300) – P33: Howard finished 12th at this race here last season. I don’t expect this type of finished from Howard, but a top 20 would be more than enough to make value.
Kyle Weatherman ($5,200) – P28: Weatherman is usually our road course value play, but this week he is here once again. At the first race at Daytona this season Weatherman finished 15th. Weatherman is cheap and starts far enough back to be worth a shot.
Mason Massey ($5,700) – P30: Massey has never raced at Daytona but he does have two races at Talladega. In those two races, Massey has finished of 20th and 27th.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,300)

Denny Hamlin ($10,800)

Kevin Harvick ($9,000)

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Dillon ($8,200)

Bubba Wallace ($7,500)

Brad Keselowski ($8,600)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 – P19) is really only an option for me on FanDuel. I don’t love the price on DK, but on Fanduel he fits perfect for three dominator builds.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Allgaier ($10,800)

Austin Cindric ($11,200)

Ty Gibbs ($11,900)

Ty Dillon ($9,000)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brett Moffitt ($8,500)

Myatt Snider ($7,800)

Michael Annett ($8,300)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000)

Sheldon Creed ($10,600)

Sam Mayer ($11,900)

Tyler Ankrum ($9,000)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ben Rhodes ($8,800)

Chandler Smith ($8,000)

Timmy Hill ($7,300)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

September 11th – 20 years later

Richmond Raceway Breakdown:

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,200)

Joey Logano ($10,700)

Kyle Larson ($11,000)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ross Chastain ($7,200)

Aric Almirola ($7,500)

Austin Dillon ($8,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

September 11th – 20 years later

Richmond Raceway Breakdown:

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12,000)

Austin Cindric ($10,300)

Justin Allgaier ($9,700)

Ty Gibbs ($11,200)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

JJ Yeley ($7,400)

Noah Gragson ($8,700)

Sam Mayer ($8,500)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Denny Hamlin ($9,500)

Kyle Busch ($11,200)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($7,800)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,300)

Sheldon Creed ($10,900)

Ben Rhodes ($9,400)

Parker Kligerman ($9,600)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Derek Kraus ($7,700)

Tanner Gray ($7,400)

Dylan Lupton ($7,600)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Lineup Construction:

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Austin Cindric ($11,300)

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

*Sheldon Creed ($**10,600)*

*Sheldon Creed ($**10,900)*

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