Tag:

NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Pocono 6/27/21

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

No, your eyes are not deceiving you, this is another Cup Series article for this weekend. We saw a crazy finish on Saturday and we hope for another exciting race on Sunday. Kyle Larson was set to win his fourth straight race on Saturday but as he came around turn 3 his left front tire went flat and sent him into the wall. Larson did manage to finish 9th but that gave teammate Alex Bowman the victory.

When I go through the lineup for Sunday there are a lot of plays that would be considered chalk plays. With so many of these types of plays, they all can’t be chalk so that makes this race more interesting. I think a lot of the top plays in this race will be spread out and keep ownership down, but also some of the good drivers starting towards the front will go completely overlooked and could be the key to a big payday on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 18th

Byron was one of the best cars on Saturday and will be in the running for the win on Sunday again. On Saturday Byron ran 115 of 130 laps in the top 15, led 13 laps, and had 11 fastest laps. I know I told you not to chase dominator points at Pocono, and we aren’t. But if we can happen to get some of those points while rostering one of the best plays and the top FPTS/$ driver on the slate why shouldn’t we.

Kyle Busch ($11,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Kyle Busch led to most laps on Saturday at Pocono for the 5th time in the last 9 races at Pocono and will be a threat again on Sunday. I only rank Byron ahead of Busch in this tier because of the $2K salary difference. I plan on playing Busch and Byron together a lot on Sunday. With the way things worked out on Saturday we can build a pretty great-looking lineup with these two drivers and only having to use ONE value play.

Kyle Larson ($12,800)

Starting Position: 12th

Larson was set to win his 4th straight on Saturday until his right front tire decided otherwise. Like I said in the open, Larson cut a tire down on the final turn of the race which cost him the victory. On Sunday I expect Larson to be determined and drive his car harder than he has all season to get the victory. Larson will be scored from 12th on Sunday but will start at the rear because he is going to his backup car which isn’t too much of a concern for me. I will probably lower my ownership of Larson on Sunday but he is in no way a fade candidate for me

Denny Hamlin ($10,500)

Starting Position: 17th

Pocono is one of Denny Hamlin’s favorite tracks and he had another great day here on Saturday. Hamlin has 6 career wins at Pocono, his most at any track, and on Saturday he had his fourth straight top 5 and fifth straight top 10. I think there is an outside chance that Hamlin finally gets his first win of 2021 on Sunday.

Chase Elliott ($10,200)

Starting Position: 9th

Elliott had one of the best cars on Saturday even though it was a rocky start to the race. Early on Elliott had made contact with Ryan Preece but would recover and finish 9th. Elliott was not an easy car to pass on Saturday as he was only passed under green 29 times, 3rd least in the race, only Custer and Hill had less but Custer went out early and Hill was in the back all day so there was no one to pass him. Besides being hard to pass, he also made the most green flag passes (103).

I also have a lot of interest in Joey Logano ($9,700 – P14), Kevin ($10,000 – P13), and Ryan Blaney ($9,200 – P16)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Bowman ($8,700)

Starting Position: 20th

As a long-time fan of the 48 team, I would love to see a sweep from Bowman this weekend but I don’t think it happens. Do I think he can come away with another top 5 and ending up in the optimal lineup on Sunday, yes. Bowman didn’t dominate in his win on Saturday, honestly, nobody really dominated this race, but he did lead 16 laps and his car was fast all day.

Ross Chastain ($7,700)

Starting Position: 33rd

Chastain was having another solid day before he got some damage early on Saturday afternoon at Pocono and finished a lap down in 33rd. I do think that Chastain will be one of the highest owned drivers but I am willing to eat the potential chalk. Chastain opens up a lot of other options and is part of the build I mentioned earlier with Busch and Byron.

Kurt Busch ($8,500)

Starting Position: 15th

I want to say that I love Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P32) in this same spot on Sunday and he will be in plenty of my lineups. Matty D will be another of the higher owned plays, someone who won’t be is Kurt Busch. On Saturday Busch ran a hell of a race and finished 6th. Busch’s 6th place finish was his third straight top 10 after a string of 12 races without a top 10.

Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P32), Chase Briscoe ($7,900) – P24)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($5,500) – P37: Newman killed our lineups on Saturday but that won’t be the case on Sunday. First, DK dropped his price by $300, and second, he is starting 18 spots lower. Newman will bounce back and is cheap enough to help you get all the top tier and mid-tier plays in
Austin Dillon ($6,600) – P21: Speaking of DK dropping prices, Dillon sees a $1,100 price decrease and is starting 9 spots lower. I love this play and will have a good amount of Dillon on Sunday
Cole Custer ($6,800) – P38: Custer is another driver who drowned our hopes on Saturday but like with Newman he starts so far back (dead last in this case) that he can’t hurt us and should be one of your top choices from this tier
Tyler Reddick ($6,900) – P10: Reddick is the risky play of this tier today, but if you are doing multiple lineups he is worth taking a shot on with his top 10 upside
Corey Lajoie ($5,900) – P36: Lajoie had a down day, but I think he bounces back on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($5,700) – P22: Jones had a really fast car on Saturday but faded at the end of the day. Jones will one of the higher owned plays in the value tier, that is why I have him at this spot instead of higher up.
Ryan Preece ($5,300) – P23: Preece starts a little higher than we’d like, but he is so cheap that we can take a small minus in place differential and still get the value from Preece.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Pocono 6/27/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Series

This weekend we have a rare Sunday Xfinity Series race as they play opener for the Cup Series’ second race at Pocono in two days. Pocono is a long 2.5-mile triangular race track and because of this we only have 90 laps. With there being so few laps, we will not need to hunt for dominator points but look more towards place differential and finishing positions.

This week we have an Xfinity Series only field with no full-time Cup Series drivers “invading”. Josh Berry ($10,200) is no longer driving the #8 JR Motorsports and will be in the #31 for Jordan Anderson while the ultra-talented, yet young, Sam Mayer ($10,000) will be in the 8 for the majority of the season going forward.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Ty Gibbs ($10,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Gibbs is another huge upside driver on Sunday (are you starting to see a trend with this tier?) and he could be the second-highest owned driver after Cindric this week. In his limited races this season, Gibbs has only one finish outside the top 5, an 18th place finish at Darlington. Gibbs will be a threat to win again on Sunday (his 3rd of the season) and if he can outrace Cindric he could find himself in victory lane once again.

Austin Cindric ($11,000)

Starting Position: 13th

Cindric is the reigning Xfinity champion and the class of the field most weeks (depending on if Kyle is racing), and this week should be no different. Last year Cindric was involved in a wreck halfway through the Pocono race and ended up 29th, but in his two other starts before 2020, he was great. Cindric didn’t lead a bunch of laps in those races, only 7 combined, but he managed to finish 4th and 7th respectively. I expect Cindric to be the chalk of this tier, but starting 13th he offers the best upside in this tier…or does he?

Sam Mayer ($10,000)

Starting Position: 20th

Mayer is one the most talented young drivers in the sport and we can look forward to him and Ty Gibbs ($10,800) battling it out for wins and titles for many years to come. This week Mayer takes over where Josh Berry left off in the #8 for JRM and will hopefully be able to keep up the pace that Berry has set for this team. Mayer literally turns 18 the day before this race (does this count as a birthday adjacent narrative Brian?) and has never raced above the Truck Series before, but he has shined in his 12 races there. Mayer has only 2 finishes below 18th, has one win, two top 5’s, and four top 10’s. If you take out his two poor finishes at the Daytona road course and Martinsville, Mayer’s average finish is 11.3 (19.5 with them) and he is stepping up in equipment big time. Combined his upside and talent on Sunday and I really like the possibility for a big day for Mayer.

Josh Berry ($10,200)

Starting Position: 33rd

Like I mentioned early, Berry had a great run in the #8 for JRM but that is over for this season as Mayer takes over. With that being said, Berry isn’t done in as he hops in the #31 for Jordan Anderson for the second time this season. Berry has great place differential upside this week which will be what pays off his huge price tag. Earlier this season Berry drove this car to an 8th place finish at Mid Ohio. If we can get a similar finish on Sunday then Berry will pay off that tag

** I plan to roster 3 of the above drivers in every lineup I build, but I will not force it. I will however have at least 2 in every lineup because there is so much value that it will be easy to do.**

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,700 – P6), Harrison Burton ($9,300 – P1), AJ Allmendinger ($9,500 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brandon Brown ($8,400)

Starting Position: 24th

I am happy to see that DraftKings priced Brown up this week which will hopefully keep his ownership down on Sunday. Last week Brown had a good run going when he had brake issues which led to his 33rd place finish. Before last week Brown had three top 10’s in his last five races and four finishes of 13th or better. Last season at Pocono Brown had an oil tank issue which led to him only running 7 laps and finishing 33rd, but in 2019 Brown started 27th and ended up 13th. Like I mentioned, I think Brown’s price keeps his ownership down which I love because I think he gets it back together this weekend.

Myatt Snider ($7,300)

Starting Position: 19th

Snider had a hot start to the 2021 season but it has all seemingly fallen apart for the young driver. Even though he has been mired in a slump, coming to Pocono could be the cure. In two starts at Pocono in two series Snider has run well finishing 4th last season in the Xfinity Series and 13th in 2019 in the Truck Series. Again, like with Clements, I think Snider is somewhat risky, but the potential and upside are there for a good GPP play. Snider will most likely go overlooked with game log watchers.

Justin Haley ($8,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Haley has been having a roller-coaster season in 2021, but he does have nine top 10’s in 14 races this season. Last season at Pocono, Haley did not have a great race when he finished 23rd. In 2019 Haley finished 9th at his first Pocono race. I would love to find some better options at a lower price in this tier, but the reality is the bottom of the mid-tier is not good and I don’t want to touch them (outside of the next driver). I will probably have some exposure to Haley, but he is not a priority. Haley knows he will be driving for Kaulig in the Cup Series in 2022. This news has him more relaxed which could help him perform better and put his mind at ease.

Other Options: Santino Ferrucci ($8,500 – P26), Michael Annett ($8,000 – P8)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jeffry Earnhardt ($5,600) – P38: Earnhardt is the top FPTS/$ play on this slate. Along with #2 on the list, Earnhardt is the optimal play in this tier according to the optimizer.
Carson Ware ($5,000) – P32: Ware has not driven an Xfinity car in 2021, but did have three races last season where he finished top 20 twice. On Sunday Ware will be in the #17 that J.J. Yeley and Cody Ware (Carson’s Brother) have driven to 13 top 25’s in 15 races.
Brett Moffitt ($6,700) – P17: Moffitt is underpriced in my opinion, but it is what it is and we will just take advantage of this mispricing. Last season in this same car Moffitt started P18 and finished 7th. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. Moffitt has ten finishes of 17th or better this season and in 3 of the 5 times, he didn’t finish that high he either wrecked or had a mechanical issue.
Jade Buford ($5,900) – P29: Buford had his string of four straight top 20’s snapped last week when he wrecked out early. I love the potential place differential upside for Buford on Sunday for his cheap price tag.
Colby Howard ($5,200) – P37: Howard, like Earnhardt, starts far enough back that he can’t really hurt you. In his last seven races, Howard has finished top 30 in all seven and has one top 20 in that span as well.
Loris Hezemans ($4,600) – P39: Cheap and starts far enough back that he can’t hurt. I think a top 35 is the best we can hope for but he makes fitting three top-tier drivers super easy.
Joey Gase ($5,400) – P40: I am sure you are starting to see a trend here, we want the cheap guys who start towards the back. Gase is not my favorite in this tier, but he starts dead last and can only go up from here
Ryan Sieg ($6,900) – P12: Sieg is probably the most talented driver with the best car (next to Moffitt) in this tier and even though he starts high in the field there is some upside.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Pocono 6/26/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This weekend we have TWO Cup Series races from Pocono Raceway with the first being run Saturday afternoon. Pocono is nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle” and is a 2.5-mile “superspeedway”. Saturday’s race is 130 laps of which Kyle Larson ($12,500) likely leads over 100 of in route to his fourth straight win and seventh straight top 2 finish. Of course, it’s also likely someone finally knocks Larson out of victory lane, though it will be difficult to do.

I am not sure it can really affect our DFS lineups but we could see some drivers who are running in the teens try to position themselves around P20 at the end of the race since Sunday’s starting lineup is determined by how this race ends. Sunday’s lineup will be the top 20 inverted and then 21-38 by the formula NASCAR usually uses to determine lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,500)

Starting Position: 1st

It’s Kyle Larson series and the rest of the field is just living in it. Larson is riding a three race winning streak, and has six straight finishes of 2nd or better. I honestly don’t think you can fade Larson at this point if you’re only playing one lineup. I will be playing multiple lineups like usual and will probably have 90% Larson again. Like I mentioned in the open, I think Larson could lead over 100 laps in this 130 lap race and I also think you will need him in your build to have a shot at a takedown.

Chase Elliott ($11,000)

Starting Position: 29th

Elliott starts deep in the field this week but should be back in the top 10 by the end of stage 1. It’s not unusual for Elliott to start towards the rear of the field as he generally fails pre-race inspection every couple of weeks. If you take out Elliott’s “DQ” finish last week he has not finished lower than 7th in any of the previous 6 races and has an average finish of 3.3. Elliott should come home in the top 10 on Saturday and be part of the optimal lineup with Larson.

Brad Keselowski ($9,500)

Starting Position: 18th

Pocono is clearly one of Keselowski’s favorite tracks. In his last 11 races here, Keselowski has finished top 11 ten times. In fact, the only time Keselowski finished lower than 11th was when he wrecked in 2018 with just 45 laps to go. Keselowski’s salary is cheap enough that you can pair him with the Larson and Elliott to make a good GPP build. It will take some risky value plays to make it work, but it is feasible.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200)

Blaney, like Elliott, will start towards the rear of the field, but for completely different reasons. Last Sunday at Nashville Blaney lost his breaks coming out of turn 2 and hit the wall hard. Pocono is one of Blaney’s better track and in 10 starts here he has only finished lower than 12th twice and owns a win here in 2017. If you can’t make a lineup you’re comfortable rolling out with Larson and Elliott, Blaney is a suitable replacement with $800 in savings.

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 2nd

William Byron has put together a great string of races at Pocono over his career. In six career races at Pocono, Byron has never finished lower than 18th and has finished top 10 in four out of six. Byron is another cheaper option to pair with Larson and Elliott or Blaney that will give you some flexibility.

Other Options: Martin Truex ($10,700 – P15), Denny Hamlin ($9,700 – P10), Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($8,000)

Starting Position: 25th

Chris Buescher has a win at Pocono and that was one of only two top 10 finishes he has had here. Buescher is having his best season as a regular in the Cup Series and I believe he could pull his third top 10 finish at Pocono on Saturday. If you take out his poor finish last week when he wrecked, Buescher has an average finish of 11.8 over his last six races and has three top 10’s in that span

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Matt DiBenedetto has not been running well of late and hasn’t finished better than 18 over the last six races. Before this bad run, Matty D had three straight top 10’s, and two top 5’s in three races. Last season at Pocono DiBenedetto had finishes of 13th and 6th. I am worried about using DiBenedetto because of his recent struggles but his salary and potential place differential upside make him worth the risk

Austin Dillon ($7,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Dillon is having a great season in 2021 and it should continue come Saturday. In 17 races this season, Dillon has only finished lower than 17th twice. Dillon doesn’t have a great track record at Pocono, but he does have 11 top 20 finishes in 14 races here, and last season he finished 19th and 14th at Pocono. Much like with the rest of the drivers in this tier I am hunting for value with upside to make the top tier drivers we need fit and Dillon fits the bill.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,600 – P13), Tyler Reddick ($7,900 – P16), Christopher Bell ($8,200 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Erik Jones ($6,400) – P22: Super cheap price for a driver that has been overperforming this season
Chase Briscoe ($6,900) – P28: Briscoe has been improving as the season goes on and I expect a top 15 for Briscoe this week
Daniel Suarez ($6,500) – P14: Suarez has had some great success at Pocono in his career (when in good equipment). In his 6 races before 2020, Suarez has three top 10’s.
Cole Custer ($6,300) – P26: I really like Custer’s PD upside for his cheap price.
Ryan Preece ($6,200) – P31: Cheap and has great PD upside, what’s not to like. Plus he’s running the truck race before this one as well
Ryan Newman ($5,800) – P19: Newman starts a little higher than we like, but his salary makes him playable.
Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P23: Lajoie has four straight top 20’s and it’s hard to overlook the potential here for the cheap price tag
Ross Chastain ($6,800) – P6: Chastain is starting to turn it on as the season progresses. In his last four races, Chastain has three top 7 finishes.
Bubba Wallace ($6,100) – P20: Wallace and Team 23XI Racing have figured it out it would seem. In his last five races, Wallace has three top 15 finishes.
Quin Houff ($4,700) – P37: Houff didn’t even make a lap last week and will most likely come in under 2% ownership on Saturday. There is potential for a top 35 on Saturday.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Pocono 6/26/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

We have a busy schedule at Pocono this weekend with four races in two days and the Truck Series kicks it all of Saturday at noon eastern. This track runs similar to a Superspeedway with long laps and drafting being key. One difference is that we don’t generally get too many cautions, and the lap count is usually lower. We only have 60 laps on Saturday afternoon so chasing dominator points is not necessary and we need to focus more on place differential and finishing position.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Busch ($15,000)

Starting position: 22nd

This will be the last time we see Kyle Busch in the Truck Series this season and the last chance we have to decide if he’s worth the salary. Pocono has been a great track for Busch in the Truck Series, but he hasn’t run a truck here since 2018. I am not concerned with the three-year gap because it’s not like Kyle hasn’t been racing competitively since then. I will focus on his last race here primarily, but he does have 2 wins and three top 5’s in four races. In 2018, Busch led 43 of 60 laps on his way to victory lane. I think we see a very similar performance on Saturday from Kyle and the #51

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Like Busch, Nemechek has not run a truck race here in years, but when he did run, he ran well. In his three races here from 2015-17, Nemechek never finished lower than 13th. Nemechek is a much more experienced driver and is running in the series’ top equipment this season and should compete for the win here.

Grant Enfinger ($9,600)

Starting Position: 31st

Enfinger is a having a great 2021 season and has been doing it for two different teams. Because he missed a race this season and doesn’t have a full time ride Enfinger isn’t eligible for the playoffs so he is just racing for wins. This week Enfinger is back in the #9 for Codie Rohrbaugh which he has two top 10’s in and has not finished lower than 17th. Enfinger and Busch will be chalky I believe, and can easily be played together, but I love that combo so much so that I will ignore the ownership on them and find ways to be different in the mid and value tiers. Both Enfinger and Busch has top 10 potential and could be 1-2 in DraftKings points at the end of the day.

Christian Eckes ($9,000)

Stating Position: 16th

Eckes is driving the #98 ThorSport Toyota this week that Enfinger drove to a 3rd place finish last week. This will be Eckes’s 6th race this season and outside of COTA (suspension issue), he has not finished lower than 11th. Adding Eckes to our Busch/Enfinger build is one way to make our lineups different.

Other Options: Ryan Preece ($9,800 – P8), Sheldon Creed ($10,500 – P10), Todd Gilliland ($10,300 – P1): Gilliland is an LF GPP play only, he has some upside but is very risky starting P1

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Josh Berry ($7,500)

Starting Position: 20th

Berry will be running his 3rd race this season for Rackley W.A.R. and his 4th Truck Series race overall in 2021. In his previous two races, Berry has finishes of 11th and 19th. We have seen him have great success in the Xfinity Series this season and with his run there over for the season, Berry will focus more on the few Truck Series races he has remaining starting with this week. Looking at paths to lineup building this week, I like how Berry slots in perfectly with a Busch and Nemechek build.

Johnny Sauter ($7,300)

Starting Position: 12th

Sauter had his streak of six straight top 10’s at Pocono snapped last season when he finished 13th, but this week he can start a new streak! Pocono has been one of Sauter’s better tracks in his career where he has an average finish of 10.4 in 11 races. In his 11 starts here at Pocono, Sauter has only finished lower than 11th once in his career (2012). While I mentioned using Berry with a Busch/Nemechek build on Saturday, Sauter could be the lower owned GPP play to pair with them for similar upside.

Bayley Currey ($8,700)

Starting Position: 27th

Currey is back in a Niece Chevrolet this season for the 5th time and will look to continue his good run of races. Now, while I do like Currey, I do think he is a bit overpriced but the upside is certainly there for him. Currey does have three top 20 finishes this season, and I think he can easily pull that off again this weekend. If you need to be different and have the salary, Currey is the guy. If you think, like I do, that Kyle Busch will get the lead and not relinquish it and only want to pay up for him, Currey makes for a great pivot off Enfinger.

Other Options: Chandler Smith ($7,800 – P11), Ty Majeski ($7,100 – P14), Stewart Friesen ($8,200 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Derek Kraus ($6,500) – P24: Top overall FPTS/$ play on the slate
Tyler Ankrum ($6,300) – P18: I love the idea of pair him with Kraus in Busch/Efinger builds. They are both two of the projected higher owned value tier plays but most won’t play them together
Tyler Hill ($6,700) – P30: Hill is a nice piece to put with Busch/JHN builds with good place differential upside.
Spencer Boyd ($5,200) – P34: Is not expected to be popular, but he should be. Boyd has the salary relief and limited downside to make any build work
Carson Hocevar ($6,900) – P13: Expected to be sub 20% owned, good GPP pivot off Kraus/Ankrum
Ryan Truex ($6,100) – P23
Jack Wood ($6,00) – P9: Carried almost no ownership last week and expect the same again on Saturday starting in the top 10. Wood is driving great equipment and should finish around the top 10.
Austin Wayne Self ($5,800) – P21: Starts a little higher for his price, but a top 20 is not out of the question
Danny Bohn ($5,700) – P28
Bryan Dauzat ($5,400) – P39: Starts last, can’t really hurt you but I will probably not have any exposure. I’d rather save the $200 in salary and play Boyd.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Nashville 6/20/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

For the first time in a very long time, the NASCAR Cup Series is racing at a new oval track for the first time. Nashville has hosted numerous other racing series but never America’s premier racing series, until now.

As we saw this weekend with the Truck Series and Xfinity Series passing is not easy and tire wear is real. Looking over the results from the weekend you will see that only 11 total drivers started outside the top 20 in both races but finished in the top 20 (6 in Truck, 5 in Xfinity). No drivers in the Xfinity who started lower than 29th were able to crack the top 20. My whole reason for going into this is to tell you to focus on fitting in the drivers you want to pay up for, and then see what fits as far as value.

This will sound very similar to the Xfinity article, but there is one team that is just far and away faster than the rest of the field, but unlike the Xfinity race it’s not the Joe Gibbs Toyota’s. Hendrick Motorsports four Chevy’s dominated practice on Saturday with all four running top 10 speeds. Larson and Byron even managed to run the same time on a lap (top lap overall) down to the one-hundredth of a second. Most weeks the Hendrick cars are fast and this week looks to be no different.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,800)

Starting Position: 5th

Larson is $1,100 more than the next driver in salary and I do not care. I want to play a ton of Larson on Sunday, maybe not 100%, but pretty damn close to that. Larson was great in practice on the long run which is key at a track where passing is difficult. In practice on Saturday, Larson was tops in 5, 10, and 15 lap average. Every week it seems like Kyle Larson and the 5 team dominate the field and this week should be no different. If you are playing cash you need LOCK Larson into your lineups and even in GPP’s, he is a must-play for me. His ownership could be lowered because of his price, so he could actually give you some small leverage on the field.

Kyle Busch ($9,900)

Starting Position: 2nd

Busch has a great history at Nashville in a lower series, including his win on Saturday. Any time a driver can get extra track time no matter the vehicle it is a good thing and that’s what we have with Busch. Coming into this weekend Busch has seven top 10’s in his last nine races, including his win at Kansas, and he has led laps in seven races out of nine as well.

William Byron ($9,700)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron has been one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series this season and I anticipate that consistency continues on Sunday. In 2021, Byron has an average finish of 5.4 and has finished top 10 in EVERY race outside of road courses and the Daytona 500. Byron was 2nd best in 5 lap average and 10th best in 10 lap average on Saturday as well as running an identical lap to Larson for top single lap speed overall.

Chase Elliott ($10,700)

Starting Position: 6th

After a sluggish start, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Champion has kicked it into full gear. Elliott has six straight top 10 finishes and four straight finishes of 3rd or better. At similar tracks this season with the same 750 HP package, Elliott has finishes of 3rd and 7th. As long as he can avoid the wrecks I can see Elliott coming home with a 7th straight top 10 and a 5th straight top 5.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,300 – P8), Kevin Harvick ($9,100 – P12), Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 – P35): Truex will be super chalk now that he is starting so far back and actually may be the safer play over Larson in cash now.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($8,600)

Starting Position: 26th

Reddick is another driver who had some seat time in a race this weekend in Nashville. On Saturday, Reddick ran in the Xfinity race and ended up finishing 15th driving the #31 for Jordan Anderson. Reddick ran a top 5 single lap speed in practice on Saturday in his #8 RCR Chevy and also had the 4th best 10 lap average. At Dover and Darlington this year Reddick has finishes of 8th and 12th.

Kurt Busch ($8,300)

Starting Position: 30th

Busch was good in practice on Saturday running the 6th best single lap speed but had a poor qualifying effort after slipping in turn 2. Kurt was able to test here at Nashville earlier this year so he has a small leg up on the field with that. At Dover earlier this year Busch came home with a 13th place finish would be a great finish today and put him in the optimal lineup for sure.

Ross Chastain ($7,600)

Starting Position: 19th

Chastain should be fast at Nashville on Sunday with some good place differential upside. In practice on Saturday, Chastain had the 4th best 5 lap average and the 2nd best 10 and 15 lap average. Chastain seems to have a car that gets faster as the laps tick off. One thing is Chastain could carry some ownership, based on his practice speed and poor qualifying effort, but I still want to have some exposure to him.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($8,100 – P28), Ryan Blaney ($8,700 – P10), Chris Buescher ($7,400 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P29: Newman will be the cash-game play in this tier today and should put out a solid performance today. In practice on Saturday Newman were top 10 in single lap and 10 lap avg
Daniel Suarez ($6,300) – P22: Suarez has been enjoying a good season in his first year in the #99. At Dover earlier this season Suarez finished 9th which is a good sign for how he can run on Sunday
Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P21: Wallace, like Suarez, had great success at Dover finishing 11th (season-best finish). In his last four races, Wallace has finished 14th or better in three.
Chase Briscoe ($6,200) – P16: Briscoe also tested here earlier this season and that could help him on Sunday. Looking at where he starts, Briscoe is a GPP play only.
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P24: Lajoie has been getting better over the last two months. In his last 8 races, Lajoie has finished 22nd or better in six of those races. Projects at sub 10% today making him one of my favorite GPP value targets
Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P20: Preece won the Truck race here on Friday and should hang around the top 20 most of the day. I love the price for Preece this week and that combined with track experience landed him on this list today.
JJ Yeley ($5,500) – P32: The veteran driver raced here twice this weekend. He has decent upside if you need the savings
Quin Houff ($4,500) – P39: I rarely ever think Houff belongs on the track, let alone in your DFS lineup, but here we are. Houff starts dead last and with attrition, he could finish around the low 30’s which would make value easily at his low price.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Nashville 6/19/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Like with the Truck Series on Friday night, the Xfinity Series is returning to Nashville Superspeedway for the first time since 2011. In that race, Carl Edwards won and dominated. In fact, only 2 drivers led at least 10 laps or more and four drivers led laps overall. As we saw on Friday night in with the trucks it is very difficult to pass here at Nashville which means we want to focus on drivers starting towards the front with just 1-2 place differential plays. Looking back at that last race in 2011, only two drivers started outside the top 20 finished inside the top 20. Both of the drivers who started inside the top 20 but did finish there wrecked and finished multiple laps down.

Once again we have Kyle Busch ($14,500) in this race at the same price as last week. Busch ran the most laps in Friday’s practice session and was fastest as well. Three of the top four cars in practice, and four of the top eight were all Joe Gibbs cars and I expect them all to qualify inside the top on Saturday and be some of our key drivers when building lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

As usual, when Kyle Busch ($14,500 – P1) is in an Xfinity race he is a favorite and should be key in any cash or single entry builds. Like I mentioned in the open, Busch was the fastest in practice and should win the pole. We saw how hard it was to pass in the truck race Friday night, and with Kyle is on the pole he will be extremely difficult to pass.

Harrison Burton ($9,500)

Starting Position: 3rd

Burton, like Busch, is in a JGR Toyota and was also fast in practice. On Friday afternoon, Burton ran 29 practice laps and was the 2nd fastest car behind Busch. I expected Burton to qualify towards the front and be a top 5 car on Saturday. Combining Burton’s usual low ownership, low price, and his potential to qualify up towards the front he makes for a nice GPP play to pair with Busch.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,000)

Starting Position: 5th

I promise I am not just listing these drivers in order of how they ran in practice. Dinger was another fast car, and the fastest Chevy, as he finished 3rd in practice behind the two aforementioned Joe Gibbs Toyota’s. Allmendinger was seen as just a road course guy, but he has shown that he can race on all types of tracks this season. Earlier this season Allmendinger took home the checkers at a 1.5-mile track (Vegas) and has a top 5 at Dover which is a comparable track to Nashville

Josh Berry ($9,000)

Starting Position: 22nd

Berry finished top 20 on Friday night in the Truck Series race and should be able to use that knowledge on Saturday afternoon in the Xfinity Series. In practice on Friday, Berry was 6th fastest and in my opinion, is now underpriced based on this. Berry had back-to-back 2nd place finishes at Dover and Darlington this season. When you add together how well he ran at similar tracks, his speed on Friday in Xfinity practice, and his race experience from Friday night in the trucks it’s easy to love the potential upside of Josh Berry.

If you want to run lineups without Kyle then I love pairing both Austin Cindric ($11,000 – P2) and Justin Allgaier ($10,400 – P11) together for a 2 dominator build. There is a path to getting one of these guys with Busch, but it will be difficult and not a build I particularly care for. Also in play for me are Daniel Hemric ($9,300 – P4) and to a lesser extent Tyler Reddick ($9,700 – P17) depending on where they qualify

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Riley Herbst ($7,600)

Starting Position: 20th

Herbst is another car that was fast in practice and (7th) and looks like he could have a good day on Saturday. After crashing in three of the first four races this season Herbst has five finishes of 12th or better in 10 races. I don’t trust Herbst for cash games, but is a good lower-priced piece for GPP’s and is someone who could offset the potentially high-owned Kyle Busch’s salary.

Brandon Jones ($8,800)

Starting Position: 7th

Brandon Jones was the “slowest” of the four Joe Gibbs Racing cars in practice Friday as he finished with the 8th fastest lap. Jones comes into this race on quite the roll with three straight top 10’s and back-to-back top 5’s. Jones is generally a good qualifier and with track position being key at Nashville I expect Jones to come home in the top 5 for the third straight week.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300)

Starting Position: 13th

Sieg is another driver who generally goes overlooked in the Xfinity Series, but I will not be one of them on Saturday. In recent weeks Sieg has rattled off a plethora of great finishes. Sieg has five finishes of 11th or better in his last seven races. One of those poor finishes was when Sieg wrecked with 50 laps left at Charlotte.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($8,500 – P12) I really like Haley as a pivot off Jones, Michael Annett ($8,100 – P21), Brett Moffitt ($7,800 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Jeremy Clements ($6,900) – P23
JJ Yeley ($6,700) – P31
Josh Williams ($5,200) – P26
Brandon Brown ($6,800) – P16
David Starr ($5,300) – P34
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,300) – P19
Kyle Weatherman ($4,700) – P27
Alex Labbe ($5,400) – P29

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Nashville 6/18/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

It’s been ten years since the Camping World Truck Series has raced at Nashville Superspeedway. Nashville is a 1.33-mile concrete track that is similar to Dover and Darlington. One thing to note is that the track will change from day to night, so the practice speeds we see early in the day on Friday may not be as accurate because of the track temperature decreasing as the sun sets. Friday night’s race will be 150 laps, so focusing on dominator points are not super important but we will want to have at least two dominators in our lineups, three if we can make it work salary wise.

In 2011, the last time the series raced here, Austin Dillon won, he is not racing this weekend, but three other Cup Series regulars are. Ross Chastain ($10,200 – P23), William Byron ($9,800 – P10), Ryan Preece ($9,000 – P6) will all be in this race as well as Josh Berry ($8,300). Both Byron and Berry will be in Rackley W.A.R. trucks, Preece will be in the DGR #17, and Chastain will be in the Niece truck he has driven multiple times this year.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800)

Starting Position: 34th

Nemechek has been the class of the series in 2021 and he is my pick to win on Friday night, which would be his 5th of the season and 3rd in a row. Earlier this season at Darlington, Nemechek finished 8th after starting on the pole and leading 65 laps. In 2021, Nemechek has only finished lower than 12th once, when he wrecked at Bristol (Dirt) and finished 39th. Nemechek has seven top 5’s in eleven races this season.

Sheldon Creed ($10,500)

Starting Position: 24th

Creed has not had a great run of late, but he has immense place differential upside tonight starting P24. In practice Friday morning, Creed ran top 10 laps repeatedly and improved late in his run with his fastest lap being his last lap. I wasn’t originally on Creed but after seeing his practice time and now the place differential he is now in play tonight.

Grant Enfinger ($9,400)

Starting Position: 4th

Enfinger seems to be overlooked each week (I am guilty of this) and never gets the ownership he should for the quality of driver he is. In 2021, Enfinger has run exceptionally well in every race this season with his lowest finish this season being 17th at Kansas. Enfinger has run two different trucks, the #98 ThorSport Toyota (The truck he is in this week) and the #9 Chevy for Codie Rohrbaugh.

Austin Hill ($10,000)

Starting Position: 3rd

Hill is another driver who has been on a great run of late like Engfinger. Since his two poor finishes at Daytona to start the season, Hill has run off a string of races where he has four top 5 finishes in nine races and eight top 10’s. Hill has yet to win this season, and even though I think JHN wins, Hill could put some pressure on him.

I like all three of the Cup Series driver in this tier as well as the driver below. I would rank Byron as the top play from that group, but Nemechek is my favorite play overall.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Josh Berry ($8,300)

Starting Position: 12th

Berry is driving the #25 truck for Rackley W.A.R. again this week after finishing just outside the top 10 last week (11th). This season Berry has shown he can be successful in all series and equipment this season and Friday should be no different. Berry should run well here based on how well he did in Xfinity Series at both Dover and Darlington. I know his Xfinity ride is better equipment than this truck, but he did finish 2nd at both tracks that are comparable to Nashville.

Carson Hocevar ($7,600)

Starting Position: 11th

Hocevar is another driver who didn’t have a good start this season and struggled mightily. It seems Darlington was the turning point for the #42 team and Hocevar. Prior to that race Hocevar had one finish better than 11th (5th at Daytona) in seven races, but since then he has four finishes of 11th or better in four races. Hocevar has two top 5’s as well in that stretch, one of which was a 3rd place finish at Darlington.

Todd Gilliland ($8,600)

Starting Position: 35th

Gilliland is a driver I have been high on most weeks, especially recently and he has not disappointed. At Daytona, Gilliland finished 31st, but since then his worst finish was 17th at Atlanta. Gilliland has six top 10’s in the last seven races, including his win at COTA earlier this season. With this being Gilliland’s third full time season in the Truck Series, he has the experience to conquer a new track and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 38 in the top ten again on Friday.

Other Options: Matt Crafton ($8,800 – P15), Stewart Friesen ($8,400 – P17), Timmy Hill ($7,000 – 25th), Parker Kligerman ($7,900)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Austin Wayne Self ($5,900) – P27
Tanner Gray ($6,700) P36 – Second best FPTS/$ play behind JHN tonight
Ryan Truex ($6,400) – P19
Hailie Deegan ($5,800) – P14
Danny Bohn ($6,000) – P31
Chase Purdy ($6,300) – P21
Spencer Davis ($6,500) – P30
Kris Wright ($4,800) – P29
Jack Wood ($6,100) – P2 – GPP ONLY! Great truck with speed, but very risky
Keith McGee ($5,300) – P33

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Texas: All-Star Race

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Unlike the double-header on Saturday, this race is not for points but is only for money. It will be a small field of 21 drivers, four of which will be determined by the fan vote and by The Open. I am pretty sure the fan vote went to Bubba Wallace ($6,100) which means he will start 21st (last) in the field. Whoever ends up in from the fan vote will be one of the top plays because of their place differential upside starting from P21.

There are some very….well silly… and convoluted rules for this race. You can find a link to them here. With only 21 drivers in the field, there won’t be many low-owned drivers, and there will most likely be ties for takedowns. I will try and help you build lineups that could be different. This will be a different type of article though. Instead of breaking down the price tier, I will just rank the drivers which will hopefully make it easier for you to build lineups on Sunday night.

NASCAR DFS: All Star Rankings

1. Kyle Larson ($10,200) – P1

Larson has dominated of late in the Cup Series and I don’t see anyone beating him this weekend either. With him starting on the pole he should be able to get out and lead a lot of laps early on. No one has been better at 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear this season. Larson dominated and won at Charlotte and Kansas and would have won at Kansas if not for a late-race restart.

2. Kyle Busch ($8,200) – P2

Busch was the class of the field on Saturday in the Xfinity race and he should be able to use that knowledge in his favor on Sunday. Texas has always been a favorite track of Busch and he should be considered a favorite on Sunday night. In his last five races at Texas, Busch has two wins and only finished outside the top 10 once. This season at 1.5-mile tracks, Busch has finishes of 1st, 3rd, and 3rd.

3. William Byron ($8,000) – P8

Byron has been one of the best drivers at 1.5-mile tracks this season. In 2021, Byron is only behind Larson when it comes to total speed ranking at 1.5-mile tracks. Two weeks ago at Charlotte (the last 1.5-mile track raced) Byron finished 4th and was the 2nd fastest car. I think Byron goes overlooked and could be a difference-maker in your lineups on Sunday.

4. Chase Elliott ($8,500) – P6

Elliott was off to a slow start, but his team has seemed to find speed the last few races and should be a contender to win this race in back-to-back years. Over the last six weeks, nobody has a better average finish (3.3) than Elliott and the 9 have.

5. Ryan Blaney ($9,600) – P17

Blaney is starting in the last spot for those who are already qualified and there are a bunch of reasons to like him. First, Blaney is a very aggressive driver, and a race like this is made for him. Because of his aggressive nature, he also is at risk of wrecking, but luckily he starts so far back that it won’t hurt too bad if he does. Secondly, the Cup Series is running a 510 horsepower package similar to what is run at Superspeedways where Blaney is one the best in the series. Lastly, Blaney had two top-ten finishes at Texas last season (4th and 7th). One downside to Blaney is his inflated projected ownership (49%), but if he is to win this race I don’t know that you can get the takedown without him in your lineup.

6. Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – P16

I think Hamlin may be the highest owned driver in this race so I will most likely have very few builds with him. Hamlin has been good at similar tracks this season with finishes of 4th and 7th at Vegas and Charlotte. You can’t argue the place differential upside with Hamlin, and maybe the money will be what gets Hamlin that first win this season, but with that being said, use Hamlin with caution.

7. Brad Keselowski ($7,700) – P9

Keselowski has the second-best average finish in 2021 at low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks (5.3). At Charlotte Keselowski finished 11th, his worst finish on the season. Keselowski finished 2nd and 3rd at Vegas and Kansas earlier this season. I don’t think Keselowski will be a contender to win this race, but a top 5 is definitely a possibility and his price means he doesn’t need to do more than finish where he started to make value.

8. Alex Bowman ($9,300) – P15

Bowman is another driver that is expected to carry a lot of ownership based on his starting position. Texas has been a good track for Bowman of late with two top 5 finishes in his last three races here. Bowman was set up for another top 10 finish in the first race last season at Texas but wrecked late and finished 30th.

9. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100) – P10

Truex has been great at Texas since it was repaved in 2017 (he was great before that too). In eight races since 2017, Truex has five top 10 finishes and only two finishes lower than 12th (one because of a crash, and another because of mechanical issues). If you want to be different and not go for the “chalkiest” trio of Blaney/Hamlin/Bowman, then Truex is your man. Truex is projected for just 7 points lower than Blaney (highest projected driver) which to me means they project to finish around the same place in the standings.

10. Kurt Busch ($6,900) – P13

It was a hard choice to put Kurt here over the 11th ranked driver, but it came down to FPTS/$ for me. Busch is the highest point-per-dollar play on the slate and could find himself in the top 10 when it’s all said and done. Kurt has run eight races since Texas was repaved and he has finished top 10 in ALL eight. Busch is expected to carry some ownership, but not enough where I would be worried about rostering him.

The rest of the field:

11. Joey Logano ($7,500) – P7

12. Ryan Newman ($6,200) – P14 – one of the BEST value plays in this race

13. Kevin Harvick ($8,700) – P12

14. Austin Dillon ($6,600) – P5 – Dillon has a win here and will carry almost no ownership

15. Michael McDowell ($6,300) – P11

16. Christopher Bell ($7,200) – P3

17. Cole Custer ($5,900) – P4 – Only really in play if you are MME

NASCAR DFS: The Open Drivers

We will have to wait until a little before an hour before race time to get the final four spots, so I suggest building teams with those who have already qualified in case you can’t make adjustments before lock just after 8pm in the East.

My picks to make this race from The Open are :

Tyler Reddick ($7,100)

Ricky Stenhouse ($6,700)

Daniel Suarez ($5,700)

(REMEMBER these are just my GUESSES on who qualifies for the race, please check discord or online before 8pm lock for those who ACTUALLY qualified)

All four drivers who move into the All-Star race will be great plays because they have already run laps on the track which will pretty much be like practice laps and they will start from P18-P21. If you can make sure you get 1-2 of these guys into your lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Texas 6/12/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

While the Cup Series celebrates All-Star weekend, the Xfinity Series is racing for points and playoff positioning this week. Texas is your basic “cookie-cutter” 1.5-mile track that is similar to Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Kansas. Texas was repaved in 2017, so any track history prior to that is not relevant, but I will mainly focus on the two races from 2020. This race has 167 laps so I will be looking to fit three dominators in my builds, which should be easy because of the low pricing on some of the better plays.

One thing that could make getting three dominators into your lineups will be the price of Kyle Busch ($14,500). Busch starts from P14 and should dominate this race like he typically does. I will try and lead you on a path for one lineup builds with Busch in them, especially if you are playing SE or cash games. If you are like me and playing multiple lineups, try to roster Busch in 75% of your builds because I don’t see it likely to get a takedown without him.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Josh Berry ($10,200)

Starting Position: 28th

Berry is pulling double duty and there is some fear that he may be exhausted from the heat in Texas after running the Truck race. I am not worried about this, if Berry thought it was going to be too much for him he would’ve pulled out of the Truck race in my opinion. Berry has been nothing short of spectacular for the #8 JRM team this season. In his last six races, Berry has a win, two 2nd place finishes, and an 8th place finish. Berry also has to finishes of 31st and 32nd during that span, but in both those races, he wrecked out early.

Austin Cindric ($11,000)

Starting Position: 4th

Cindric is in line for his second straight Xfinity Series championship as he continues to dominate in 2021. Texas is another track where Cindric has been nothing short of dynamite in his Xfinity career. In six races at Texas, Cindric has one victory, four top 5’s, five top 10’s, and an average finish of 5.2, Cindric is my pick to win this week and should end up leading the most laps as well on Saturday.

Harrison Burton ($9,700)

Starting Position: 18th

Last week at Mid-Ohio was only the second time this season that Burton finished lower than 12th (38th). I expect that we will see Burton competing for another top 10 on Saturday, his 10th on the season in just 14 races. Burton is severely underpriced based on his upside and should be chalky, but I think we just eat the good chalk in this case and find other ways to be different. In three career Xfinity races at Texas, Burton has never finished lower than 7th (2019). Burton had two top 5’s here last season, including winning the race last time the series was here in October.

Justin Allgaier ($9,900)

Starting Position: 16th

In eight races at Texas since 2017 (when the track was repaved) Allgaier has six finishes of 13th or better including three finishes in the top 6. Like with Harrison Burton, I feel that Allgaier is underpriced for his upside on Saturday. Since March 20th at Phoenix, Allgaier has two wins, four top 5’s, and six top 10’s in eight races.

Other Options: Noah Gragson ($11,500 – P30) : Obviously the upside is there, but he has been so bad this season it is hard to pay this salary. Daniel Hemric ($9,100 – P5), Brandon Jones ($9,400 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jeremy Clements ($7,100)

Starting Position: 20th

Clements’s best-ever finish at Texas was last season in the Summer race (11th) and should have the chance to top that on Saturday. So far in 2021 Clements has nine top 15 finishes in 13 races this season, which is half of what he had in 33 races last season. Clements has 10th, 12th, and 17th place finishes at similar 1.5-mile tracks this season. Combine Clements’ low price with his potential upside and he could lead to someone getting a takedown on Saturday.

Michael Annett ($8,500)

Starting Position: 6th

This week the mid-tier is pretty barren but if you have the salary to make Annett fit, he could be an extremely low-owned play that could pay off. I don’t think Annett is safe for cash games or single entry, but in GPP’s he is viable. If you are going the path of fading Kyle in lineup’s you could use Annett in those builds. In his last five races, Annett has four top 11 finishes, and at Texas, in the last two seasons, Annett has never finished lower than 11th.

Other Options: Brett Moffitt ($7,700 – P19), Jeb Burton ($8,300 – P8), Riley Herbst ($7,900 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,000) – P36: Martins projects as the top FPTS/$ play on the entire slate and I plan on having a good amount of him
Bayle Currey ($6,300) – P39: Currey is another great FPTS/$ play and with the PD upside he is another driver I will have plenty of exposure too
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,400) – P33: Another driver with good place differential upside at a good price
Stefan Parsons ($6,100) – P37: If you haven’t noticed the trend yet, I am looking for point-per-dollar plays, and Parsons fits that bill nicely.
Ronnie Bassett Jr. ($5,900) – P38
Joe Graf Jr ($6,500) – P35

If you want to roster Kyle Busch and another top tier driver, you will need to make three of these drivers fit. I want place differential plays and the drivers who can hurt us the least, that why you see every driver starting P33 or lower.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Texas 6/12/21

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

While the Cup Series celebrates All-Star weekend, the Truck Series is racing for points and playoff positioning this week. Texas is a basic 1.5-mile track that is similar to both Atlanta and Kansas. Texas was repaved in 2017, so any track history prior to that is not relevant, but I will mainly focus on the two races from 2020. This race has 147 laps so I will be looking to use two dominators in my lineups, but if I can make a 3rd fit I will go that route in some of my builds.

We have three drivers jumping over from different series this week in Chase Elliott, Josh Berry, and Ross Chastain. All three of these drivers will be viable in lineups and could actually be relatively chalky. I do have a preference when it comes to the three of them, but you will see who that is as you read.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Sheldon Creed ($10,500)

Starting Position: 16th

Last fall Creed dominated at Texas on his way to victory during the 2020 playoffs. Creed led 131 of 152 laps (86.2%) and had 23 fastest laps. Creed didn’t have a great race in the first race in July at Texas finishing 16th after starting on the pole. It has been an up and down season similar track types for Creed, but he did finish top 5 at Atlanta this season.

Chase Elliott ($11,800)

Starting Position: 22nd

This is Elliott’s first Truck Series race this season and also his first time in a truck at Texas. Elliott has had plenty of success in a Cup Series car at Texas though with five top 10’s and two top 5’s. On Saturday afternoon, Elliott will be piloting the GMS #24, one of the top teams with the best equipment in the series. I believe there is a really great chance that Elliott can get the win on Saturday.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,900)

Starting Position: 1st

Once again, Nemechek is on the pole and should dominate the early part of this race if he can hold off Ben Rhodes ($9,600) in the first few laps. Nemechek has shown he has the best truck and is the best driver week in and week out this season. Nemechek has three wins this season, two of which have come at similar 1.5-mile tracks (Charlotte and Vegas). Aside from the two wins at similar tracks, Nemechek also has top 5’s at the other two 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Ross Chastain ($10,200)

Starting Position: 24th

Chastain could be the lowest owned of the four drivers I’ve mentioned in this tier but could also win this race. In his eight races here in the Truck Series, Chastain has three top 10’s. This season we have seen Chastain run two races in this series and both were at 1.5-mile tracks similar to Texas and he finishes 2nd and 7th.

Other Options: Austin Hill ($10,000 – P5), Matt Crafton ($9,200 – P15), Grant Enfinger ($9,400 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Josh Berry ($8,400)

Berry is driving the #25 truck for Rackley W.A.R. this week, which is typically driven by Timothy Peters this season. Peters has five top 25 finishes in 10 races this season, but Berry is a much better and more experienced driver and should have a good day in this truck. I plan to pair Berry with 2 of the 4 top-tier drivers I wrote up above which gives you plenty of salary to build a solid team behind them.

Brennan Poole ($7,000)

Starting Position: 27th

Poole is returning to the Truck Series for the first time since breaking his wrist and having surgery. Danny Bohn has filled in for Poole this season and done an admirable job filling in. Bohn has finished lower than 30th only once this season in 10 races. Poole, a Texas native, will make his season debut at his home track, a track he has done well at in his career. If you take out last season when he crashed, Poole has an average finish of 10.3.

Tyler Ankrum ($7,900)

Starting Position: 11th

Ankrum has been running some really good races since he finished 40th at the Bristol Dirt race. In five races since that Bristol crash, Ankrum has not finished lower than 16th in any race and has two top 5’s in that span. It seems to me that his team has fixed whatever was wrong early on this season and they should be in contention for another top 10 this week.

Other Options: Tanner Gray ($7,200 – P20),Todd Gilliland ($8,800 – P4), Drew Dollar ($7,400 – P10), Johnny Sauter ($8,300 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Tyler Hill ($5,900) – P25 – Comes in right behind the top tier 4 in FPTS/$.
Tate Fogleman ($5,700) – P31 – Like Hill, he is a pretty good point-per-dollar play.
Chase Purdy ($6,600) – P28
Hailie Deegan ($6,400) – P12 – Deegan has improved throughout the season at 1.50-mile tracks this season and she could earn her first top 10 this season
Ryan Truex ($6,900) – P14
Austin Wayne Self ($6,300) – P13
Keith McGee ($5,300) – P34
Ray Ciccarelli ($4,800) – P36

4 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts