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Monkey Knife Fight

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9.

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone ,all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

Now that we are doing our MKF articles daily over here at Win Daily one thing that I want to make sure that I do is recap my plays and keep track of how we’re doing overall so that we can demonstrably show our track record for everyone who follows and uses the plays that we provide. Our first day was pretty mediocre and we’ll be sure to rebound over the long term. I was dead on with my expectations when it came to David Montgomery and Mike Evans going under on their props and I was on track with Ronald Jones performing above Vegas’s projections but I missed on my analysis when it came to Allen Robinson for NFL even though Foles failed to hit his 248 yard prop and my MLB plays with Kyle Wright exceeding his 14.5 total outs in his first start since the 25th of September and Jordan Montgomery only striking out four after three straight with at least seven K’s. That starts us of with a sub par 1 of 5. Lets fix that today.

*Since today we are having a rare slow day as of late with only one MLB and one NBA game we’re going to go with 4 prop plays total. MKF has done a pretty good job with their lines today and I don’t want to reach for otherwise bad plays just to get five on the article.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9 NBA:

Who knows if we get another shot at this so let’s go ahead and get some NBA plays in for what very well be our last game until the next calendar year. I know Jimmy Butler and the Heat are trying to will this championship into existence and as much as I would love to see it keep going I just don’t see them going past tonight. They’ve lost two of their three games this series but double digits and it took a massive performance by Butler to get them over the hump in game three with a 40 point triple-double and even then the Lakers were still within five points with two minutes left. While I think the Heat lose tonight, I think they are going to fight to the end so aside from favoring Lebron wherever possible I think we’re going to have a few spots where scorers like Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler will outperform expectations for the Heat.

In this rapid fire contest you get 2x your ROI getting three of four correct. I’ll always take a bonus on Lebron when given and even more so when he has gotten no less than 10 boards in the previous 4 games, Rondo has outpaced Caruso 66 to 23 assists in the last 10 games including 24 to 6 in this series, and Butler will do anything he can to carry his team tonight while Davis has the luxury of playing next to a man who has won more playoff series than Davis has played playoff games (38 series wins to 32 total games). Robinson gets my lean on 3’s due to his roll but Crowder has hit 10 3’s to Robinson’s 11 this series.

As I mentioned above if the Heat are to have even the slightest chance to pull this one out Butler is going to have to carry them with another performance like he had in game three, I don’t think he duplicates it but I think he does enough to get him past Davis with a 4.5 point bonus as the primary scoring option and Rajon Rondo has only gotten within three assists of Lebron once in the last 5 games and only averages 5.4 APG to James’s 9.9 APG on the season and he typically plays 10 to 12 less minutes per game.

With the final selection I like the idea of pairing Butler and Lebron to exceed 59.5 points plus three’s made combined. Lebron has scored no less than 25 points and shot no less than four 3’s in any game this series and Butler is scoring from 20.5 PPG to 26.4 PPG while taking 2-3 three pointers per contest. I don’t think you will need to risk going beyond the 59.5 total goal but as I noted earlier Butler is going to do everything possible to carry this team so another 45 minute game and 30+ point output is something I don’t see being out of the ordinary.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9 MLB:

The first place that I usually go with MLB props is to pitching but the K prop is tough. The 8.5 number for Cole is tough to pick either way and Tyler Glasnow while striking out less than seven only twice in 11 starts this season he has never started on three days rest and in only 6 innings of total work on limited days off he has allowed 10 earned on 6 K’s and Tampa is hanging on by a thread and will likely turn to Snell at the first sign of trouble. Instead I will go with rapid fire for my MLB choice today.

With Cole’s 8.5K prop and Glasnow being on only 3 days rest I feel pretty confident about Cole in this scoring format even with a 3.5 fantasy point advantage. The Judge vs. Voit is a bit trickier. While on the surface both look like even with the half point edge to Voit but Judge sees a significant advantage of almost .184 in his away ops, an .082 point advantage in average against power pitchers, and a .176 ops advantage against RHP in 2020.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight 10.9 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

Monkey Knife Fight Top 5 Plays 10.8.

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Top 5 Plays 10.8 NFL:

With a 44.5 point total and the Bucs at only a 3.5 point favorite this is projected to be a much uglier game than we have been accustomed to over the last 15 years with Tom Brady under center and I’m inclined to agree. With Chris Godwin out, Mike Evans and Scotty Miller questionable, Leonard Fournette doubtful, and OJ Howard on the IR they are essentially down to Rob Gronkoski, Cameron Brate, and Ronald Jones. On the Bears side they face a legit Buc defense, and they have who I’ve largely felt is an overrated coach in Matt Nagy, who is more interested in showing everyone how smart he is than just sticking with a game plan that works for David Montgomery, and a QB in Nick Foles whom I’ve always questioned the mechanics and arm strength of. So aside from Ronald Jones I think we’re going to see a lot of under totals today. Below are a few that I prefer in what very well may be an ugly Thursday Night Football game.

Monkey Knife Fight Top 5 Plays 10.8 MLB:

One thing about playoff baseball that reigns true is that pitchers have a short leash regardless of manager or team and that is even more so when you are dealing with young pitchers. With the Braves and Marlins we have Sixto Sanchez with a 16.5 out prop and Kyle Wright with 14.5 outs. Sixto has not gone more than 5 innings in his last three starts and his pitch location can get quite wild as a rookie with 67% strikes thrown over the season. Kyle Wright on the other hand was trending in the other direction with three straight outings with at least six innings pitches. But there are two things that give me pause, he has not pitched a real game since September 25th and prior to his 3 game performance he was sporting an 8.05 ERA over his previous 5 starts. Also, for Wright this is his first postseason appearance and while I think it will be easier without crowds to worry about the nerves of the postseason will still be there. Another pair of unders for me.

Just remember, young players and player who have been on extended breaks do tend to have an even shorter leash in the playoffs. I could see scenarios where neither pitcher sees more than 4 innings.

Alright I’m not going to be a complete downer today, let’s end this one on everyone’s favorite thing. OVERS!!!! Even with Jordan Montgomery’s flaws, and there are many, the one thing that he always brings to the table is a high K-rate. Sitting at 24.5% regardless of if he allows zero runs or 4 he should have no problem getting you to 6k’s against a Rays team that sports an almost 27 percent k-rate between the 2019-2020 seasons. I can pick the over on Yandy Diaz because even though Montgomery will strike out many he will also allow a ton of guys on base on the way to that 6k prop and it is unlikely that will come from Diaz as he has a tiny 15% K-rate and a 24% walk rate over the last 2 seasons. So get a little frisky folks and hit those OVERS, you know you want to.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight 10.8 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 4 Edition.

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! Week 4 of NFL action and we have had a fantastic run over the first few weeks in the WinDaily Sports family and this article today will be dedicated specifically to taking advantage of Monkey Knife Fight’s prop based contests. WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. I know you guys didn’t click the article to here me blabber about so let’s take a look at who I think you should target in Monkey Knife fight Week 4 Edition.

Quick Note: One thing that you will see me avoid more often than not is the touchdown props. I know it is an attractive contest to go after sometimes but touchdowns are high variance and difficult to profit from over the long term so it isn’t the type of thing that you will see coming from my article very often. I want to see you all grow your bankroll over the long term so I avoid high variance plays like that.

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 4 Edition:

I typically try to wait to get the most current information and as I’m writing this we are getting news that we have a positive Covid test with the Saints so I’m going to pivot just a bit from my original plays. I was quite enjoying the MKF props on that game but oh well, we knew this could and probably would happen. so lets take it in stride and find some plays that we can take advantage of and the first thing I thing we should do is target Deandre Hopkins UNDERS. It sounds like he’ll play but his ankle is bothering him a good bit but he looks like he’ll gut it out. You’ll have to dig around between the early star slate and the Cardinals/Panthers game itself but all of the ones I felt goo targeting are below. With a total of 51.5 and Arizona only favored by 3 I have no issues taking overs with the various Nuk pairings and simply put with Dak Prescott over Russell Wilson I think that Russell’s uber efficient nature will create big games with lower yardage totals sooner rather than later. I know he’s on a tear right now but slinging it to this rate has never been his forte nor has it been Pete Carroll’s and I see a little regression coming with that.

As I mentioned last week something that you can do is hedge both ways on the second player in the set. It will reduce your payout but it also gives you some protection whenever you are confident in one player but not the other.

The lack of saints really thins things out so I’m aside from me playing on the Deandre Hopkins injury We’re going to take a look at the reception collection for a simple 2x return for 24.5 receptions. I know it isn’t sexy but I feel pretty confident in the ability of D.J. Moore, Tyler Boyd, and Amari Cooper. They are all target hogs and the average of seven catches per should be well within their ability in what should be positive game scripts against exploitable secondary’s.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 4 Edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 3 Edition.

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! Week 3 of NFL action and we have had a fantastic run over the first two weeks in the WinDaily Sports family and this article today will be dedicated specifically to taking advantage of Monkey Knife Fight’s prop based contests. WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. I know you guys didn’t click the article to here me blabber about so let’s take a look at who I think you should target in Monkey Knife fight Week 3 Edition.

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 3 Edition: Cowboys/Seahawks

Let’s have a little fun today with Monkey Knife Fight and take a look at the game we’re all going to be targeting in our DFS lineups. The total has moved up to 57 from 55 with most of the money still on the over so lets find some props to kick this game off. No better place to start than our QB’s. I’m pretty confident that Dak will hit the over handily hear, the efficiency of Russell Wilson is the only thing that makes 290.5 worrisome. He’s made a habit over his career of going bonkers but doing so with low yardage totals, much like peak Aaron Rodgers in the early half of his career. I was originally thinking over for both but the more I thought about it the more I feel the under is the smart play for Wilson. Dak Prescott: OVER 312.5/Russell Wilson UNDER 290.5

***One thing you can do here to hedge this if you’re like me is play the over once again with Dak, then play both sides of Russell. I feel pretty strongly about Daks chances and for example if you play $10 with both you will go home with $30 in your pocket on a $20 play. Slow and steady wins the race. We all love the big win but I equally love long, sustained growth.***

Little more Hawks and Cowboys fun. We go to the Rapidfire where it’s a little more risk but we get a 5x ROI if we nail it. As I’ve stated I think the more likely scenario is that Dak Prescott may be much less efficient my will throw for way more in terms of yardage than the ever effective Russell Wilson. Even with +22.5 yards for Wilson I like Dak to surpass him. At the same time Cooper has led the team with 14 and 9 targets in each of his first two weeks for 100 an 89 yards which I expect to continue while Lockett seems to have become the 1b behind Metcalf catching 8 of 8 for 92 in week one and 7 of 8 for 67 yards. Lockett is always ultra efficient but Cooper is still peppered with targets and I expect the Cowboys playing from behind as the more likely scenario. Give me Amari. Finally, I don’t think I need to explain here. Ceedee Lamb seems to have already overtaken Michael Gallup as the teams #2 receiver in just two weeks. Lamb has hauled in 11 of his 15 targets while Gallup has only brought in 5 of 10. Volume and catch rate is clearly in favor of Lamb. Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb

Our final contest for this weeks article we go back to another More/Less for 3x return and I am going to finish on the one I feel most confident in. Super simple. I like Gallup UNDER 4.5 receptions and DK Metcalf OVER 67.5 yards. That 67.5 number seems crazy low for a Guy like DK and as I said earlier Gallup has been overtaken by Lamb as has only seen 5 targets each game and both of them were shootouts. Michael Gallup UNDER 4.5, DK Metcalf OVER 67.5 Yards.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 3 Edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 2 Edition.

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I am playing injured today but I am not letting a questionable tag keep me out. It is time for my second weekly article that will be dedicated specifically to taking advantage of Monkey Knife Fight’s prop based contests. WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. I know you guys didn’t click the article to here me blabber about so let’s take a look at who I think you should target in Monkey Knife fight Week 2 Edition.

Quick Note: Two things. First, I am going to me much more brief today with my choices, To ensure the player pool didn’t change on us this week I waited until Sunday morning to make my selections. Second, you I tend to stay conservative on my picks, it is a rush to hit the big parlay but I want to see you all win over the long term so that is how I gear my articles.

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 2 Edition: Star Shootout (early games)

We are going to start of with everyone’s favorites, overs. Today’s more or less is pretty simple. Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in weeks one and I saw nothing from Dallas that says tells me the could stop it and the same thing can be Said for Dak Prescott against the Falcons.

Reception Collection went well last week and I see no reason to not go back. Davante Adams alone could get us there himself against Detroit but throw in Mike Evans without Chris Godwin against that soft Carolina Defense and a Calvin Ridley who hauled in nine on 12 targets in what projects to be a shootout. I’m sticking with the 3x prop for 25.5 receptions but if you were to get risky and go for the 27.5 prop for 4x I can see a path to get there. But I would advise playing it safe and going 3x.

Third and final selection for me is the more or less where you have to get 3/4 correct to 2.5x your money and even with Derrick Henry’s prop at 115.5 the books all have him at 118 and we all know that while this looks like a big number it is much less so for a beast like him. The rest of the choices tie into previous picks with Davante Adams, Matt Ryan, and Julio Jones all feeling like solid plays today. Over all day

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 2 Edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 1 Edition.

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! After months of wondering if we would even have a season we’ve made it and here at Win Daily we are producing even more content for you so that you can build your bankroll in even more ways. This will be the first of many weekly articles that will be dedicated specifically to taking advantage of Monkey Knife Fight’s prop based contests. WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. I know you guys didn’t click the article to here me blabber about so let’s take a look at who I think you should target in Monkey Knife fight week one edition.

Quick Note: One thing you will notice with all of my future prop articles is that I won’t do many or possibly any touchdown contests and that is intentional. Touchdowns are unpredictable and usually horrible things to bet on. It’s statistically proven and a bad way to bet outside of just having a little fun.

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 1 Edition: Star Shootout (early games)

We’ll start this off with the very first contest they have in the Early Start Shootout, the More or Less. Two selections, triple your money and you just pick more or less, easy.

Many Folks may have forgotten but before Matt Ryan suffered an ankle injury last season he was on a streak to start the season with six straight 300+ games and finished with 11-16 even when he was physically limited. Falcons have given me no reason to think they won’t continue to be a pass first team, Gurley’s knee can’t handle 20+ carries a game, and Calvin Ridley should seemingly take a step forward opposite Julio Jones. Taking the over 299.5 against the Seattle secondary.

On the other side of things the under 275.5 passing yards makes perfect sense for Matt Stafford. Matt Patricia is slowly attempting to turn the Lions into a running team at what seams to be any cost, Golladay is confirmed out, and the Bears gave up more than 275 yards only three times all season and week 11 of 2018 was the last time the Lions did it.

Reception Collection is the next spot that I want to attack as I feel that we have a clear path to the 20.5 receptions to double your money and I honestly feel good about the 22.5 prop for 3x return. Christian McCaffrey, Julio Jones, and Davante Adams are my three choices. We’re talking an average of 7 catches per or 8, 8, and 7 for your over 22.5. In 9 of 16 starts Christian caught at least seven balls and I expect them to be further behind than what Vegas thinks, in 8 of 12 Davante also had seven or more and Rodgers still has no other real weapons to throw to, and Julio is Julio, he only caught seven or more in six of his games but against Seattle last year he went 10-12 for 152 yards and now there is no Austin Hooper to take targets away. If you want to be safe go ahead and stick to the 20.5 but I wouldn’t argue if you were feeling froggy and took the 22.5 prop.

Bonus Early Slate: If you really want to get crazy and go for a huge return check out the 5 man over/under for 20x return. Please keep in mind it is very difficult to hit a five leg parlay so this is just for fun if you want to risk it. It’s pretty simple as it covers all of the guys I mentioned above with McCaffrey’s rushing total the only thing I haven’t touched on, but given he is their entire offense and even if the Raiders win it easily he is going to be fed the rock and exceeded 85 rushing yards in half of his games last year albeit in a Ron Rivera led team.

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 1 Edition: Eagles at…..Football Team

I wanted to throw this in here real quick as it has everyone’s DFS darling Boston Scott. Scoring is PPR and I fully expect Scott to get more than enough usage to hit his 13.5 point total. On the other side I think people have gone a bit crazy hyping up Antonio Gibson in this offense. I really expect….Football Team to be playing from behind and Gibson never caught more than six passes in any game at Memphis and I do not expect Washington to use a rookie back that they didn’t even would start a few weeks ago in passing situations this early in a season without a training camp or preseason. I’m going under 11.5 for Antonio

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 1 Edition: Star Shootout (late games)

Here we will be covering the late slate in the start shootout and we’ll go right back to more or less for 3x return. I know people are going to want to money on this game so why not start with the quarterbacks for the Saints and Bucs.

I think for a lot of our younger teams the unders will be the end result in most circumstances but with the two most experienced QB’s in Tom Brady and Drew Brees I expect no issues. Tampa had the best run defense in the NFL last season so I expect a heavy dose of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara catching passes out of the backfield and you know Arians is going to waste no time in letting Brady loose and Tom will want to come out quickly to show everyone that he still has plenty left in his arm and it was the lack of weapons that caused the dip in numbers. I expect both guys to throw for over 300 yards tomorrow.

They gave us an even easier more or less so we will certainly take advantage. In this one we only need to get 3 out of 4 correct to make 2.5x our bet. I love that for an easy bankroll boost.

We already covered where I think Brees will exceed 300 yards tomorrow so if I think that you can safely assume that I have faith that a large amount of those yards come from Michael Thomas, George Kittle caught at least six passes in 12 of his 16 games and Arizona was a tight end cheat code last year and they did nothing to change that, and the Chargers allowed at least 75 rushing yards in 13 of 16 games including seven games of at least 124 yards. Additionally, Cincinnati wants to protect their new investment in Joe Burrow early on by leaning heavily on the running game and Joe Mixon has proven without a doubt that he can handle that workload. It’s so strange to do this because I’m expecting such sloppy play but I’m taking all overs with these four guys Sunday.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 1 Edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ Week 1 AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets… It’s time to let her shine! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 1 Plays

Player Prop Description	Odds	Unit Risk
Marlon Mack O54.5 Rush Yds	-112	1.5
Rodgers O252.5 P Yds	+100	1.5
Anthony Miller O39.5 yds	-112	1.25
Anthony Miller O3.5 Rec	+115	1
Stefon Diggs O51.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Ryan Fitzpatrick O234.5 P Yds	-112	0.5
Julio Jones U90.5 Rec Yds	+101	1
Todd Gurley O17.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Julio Jones U6.5 REC	+115	0.5
Tyler Lockett O4.5 REC	-141	1
Bridgewater P Yds > Carr P Yds	+111	0.5
Darren Waller U4.5 REC	+110	0.5
Curtis Samuel O3.5 REC	+125	1
DJ Moore O5.5 REC	+110	0.5
Lamar Jackson O219.5 P Yds	-112	0.5
Lamar Jax P Yds > Baker P Yds	+130	0.5
Jarvis Landry O4.5 REC	+120	0.5
TY Hilton U63.5 Yds	-112	0.5
Jack Doyle O30.5 Yds	-112	0.5
Tyrod Taylor O219.5 P Yds	-112	2
Keenan Allen O55.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Austin Ekeler O34.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Drew Brees U292.5 P Yds	-112	0.5
Raheem Mostert O52.5 Rush Yds	-125	1

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park

5 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 PGA Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

As I referenced in my Range article, majors tend to force the cream to the top. The PGA Championship is no different as I’ll have seven of the top golfers in the nine and ten thousand range.

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Jon Rahm $10,500 (Model #1, PM Wave, Wind Rank 8th, Projected Ownership 16%)
Justin Thomas $11,300 (M4, AM, W1, 22%)
Xander Schauffele $10,000 (M11, AM, W15, 24%)
Brooks Koepka $11,100 (M15, AM, W40, 18%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Patrick Cantlay $9,400 (M21, AM, W31, 21%)
Dustin Johnson $9,000 (M28, AM, W49, 19%)
Tiger Woods $9,200 (M45, AM, W19, 10%)

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Collin Morikawa $8,600 (M7, AM, W7, 16%)
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M8, AM, W25, 13%)
Jason Day $8,400 (M9, AM, W27, 14%)
Rickie Fowler $8,300 (M16, PM, W20, 10%)
Daniel Berger $8,800 (M20, AM, W41, 19%)
Tyrrell Hatton $8,000 (M36, AM, W12, 14%)
Hideki Matsuyama $8,200 (M39, PM, W14, 15%)

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Billy Horschel $7,400 (M10, PM, W16, 9%)
Harris English $7,200 (M12, AM, W44, 9%)
Bubba Watson $7,400 (M13, PM, W18, 5%)
Chez Reavie $7,400 (M14, AM, W48, 7%)
Tony Finau $7,900 (M22, AM, W23, 14%)
Scottie Scheffler $7,300 (M24, AM, W39, 8%)
Corey Conners $7,000 (M25, AM, W17, 3%)
Sergio Garcia $7,600 (M32, PM, W4, 9%)
Joaquin Niemann $7,300 (M33, PM, W10, 5%)

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000

Ryan Palmer $6,900 (M19, AM, W26, 9%)
Brendan Steele $6,900 (M27, AM, W11, 2%)
Nick Taylor $6,300 (M46, AM, W50, 1%)

**Players I’m still looking at as of this writing but haven’t decided on yet. I will post in the discord PGA Research Tab when I list my final exposure.**

Russell Henley $6,600 (M31, AM, W63, 2%)
Matthias Schwab $6,900 (M34, AM, W67, 2%)
Cameron Tringale $6,800 (M37, AM, W59, 2%)
Luke List $6,800 (M40, AM, W57, 2%)

Strategy for the 2020 PGA Championship

The list above is for my 150 max contests. I want to run through a few people and describe a few feelings I have on some stand outs, one way or another.

***The AM wave seems to have a decent advantage as it should avoid the possible 25 – 30 mph wind gusts in the afternoon. If you notice, most of my golfers are from the AM group. Most of that was by coincidence but there were a few players omitted because the fell into the PM group. With that said, some players made it into my player pool from that afternoon. I made a wind model and if the golfers were ranked in the top 20, they got moved to the player pool. ***

Tiger Woods is always interesting in DFS. As of right now hes projected for only 10% ownership (Make sure to check out Steven’s article as he has the up to date ownership). The ownership is the only reason I’m playing him as he does not rank well in my overall model. All the players in the 10K range have reasons to avoid them but Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau are the golfers I’m avoiding all together. Rory has just looked off since the restart, his whole game is just blah. DeChambeau should suit this course pretty well but I feel his “temper” might get the best of him.

Paul Casey ranks well in my model but looks broken with his entire short game. Granted it isn’t the most important part of the golfer’s game to suceed here (I think) but it’s got to be somewhat present. Casey’s wedges and putter look terrible. He will be low owned, like 5% owned so if you want to take a chance, ownership wise, here’s your chance. Adam Scott hasn’t played since the restart and even before that he missed time. He’s coming in with decent ownership and I think the rust will be too much for him coming in.

Cash Game Core

Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa
Tony Finau

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP

10k – Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas & Xander Schauffele
9K – Patrick Cantlay
8K – Collin Morikawa, Matthew Fitzpatrick & Jason Day
7K – Harris English & Corey Conners

20 Max GPP

10K – Brooks Koepka
9K – Dustin Johnson
8K – Rickie Fowler & Daniel Berger
7K – Billy Horschel, Bubba Watson, Chez Reavie, Tony Finau & Scottie Scheffler
6K – Ryan Palmer, Brendan Steele & Nick Taylor

150 Max

9K – Tiger Woods
8K – Tyrrell Hatton & Hideki Matsuyama
7K – Sergio Garcia & Joaquin Niemann
6K – **Russell Henley, Matthias Schwab, Cameron Tringale & Luke List**

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, in general you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the PGA Championship, you may want to limit the lower priced golfers even more than usual.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Justin Thomas and I’m fading Rory McIlroy, so you can grab the Over for Thomas and the Under for McIlroy and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 PGA Championship. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 17 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 17 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,200)

Starting off with a bit of a wild card here. Sam Darnold has been looking improved in his last five games with a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The Buffalo Bills are locked into the fifth seed for the playoffs and this game means absolutely nothing but pride for them. They have already ruled Shaq Lawson out and Darnold played decent against the Bills Week One while dealing with mono. Expect a great performance at this price and pay up for other skill positions in your lineup.

Tom Brady, NE @ MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

The naysayers will say that Brady doesn’t perform well in South Florida but I would counter that with a look at this Miami Dolphins team. This is a great chance for the Patriots offense to get back in stride with a weaker opponent heading into a probable bye week. Tom Brady had one of his better statistical games against this Dolphins team with 264 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a nice performance at another relatively cheaper price than normal for the quarterback slot.

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,300)

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over with just three interceptions this season. The Lions have surpassed the Arizona Cardinals as the worst passing defense in the NFL and have six interceptions, the lowest in the league. Aaron Rodgers should be a gunslinger in this game and be around 300 yards as well. No need to discount double-check this decision.

Week 17 Quarterback GPP Plays

Russell Wilson, SF vs SEA

DK ($15,000) FD ($7,900)

With the division title on the line in Week 17 in a primetime matchup, there are very few quarterbacks I would want outside of Russell Wilson. Coming off an all-around stinker against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks should come out on all cylinders against the 49ers. Yes, the numbers say the 49ers pass defense should limit him but the last three weeks do not look good for that defense.

Deshaun Watson, TEN vs HOU

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,000)

He currently is listed as questionable with a back injury but I wouldn’t be shocked if he is under center on Sunday afternoon. Going up against a hungry Titans team still competing for a playoff opportunity, Watson will have the energy to compete instead of “taking the week off”. He played well in the matchup these two teams had earlier in the season and I expect very similar numbers out of him as well.

Patrick Mahomes, LAC vs KC

DK ($ 7,200) FD ($8,600)

Patrick Mahomes had a bit of a struggle at points in this season but last year’s MVP has been heating up in his last three games. He played against top-level defenses in that span and should be easier for him with the Chargers in town. With the opportunity of a potential bye still looming, expect Patrick Mahomes to showcase his abilities on Sunday.

Week 17 Quarterback Fades

Jameis Winston, ATL vs TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,100)

Jameis is on the injury report ahead of this game with a thumb and knee injury. This Atlanta team is completely different than the one Winston saw a month ago, with three consecutive victories and a team that will not be changing regimes in the offseason. Without some of his favorite targets on the field due to injury, expect a stinker from Jameis to end this season.

Case Keenum, WAS @ DAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,800)

Do not buy into last week’s offensive performance from Case Keenum once Dwayne Haskins was carted off. This Cowboys team is somehow still competing for the NFC East crown and need to win this game and hope for an Eagles loss. Keenum had back-to-back stinkers before being demoted to the backup and that’s more of what I expect.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NE @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,400)

The fact that he is facing off against Bill Belichick and the New England defense is the main reason why Fitzpatrick is on this list. With a New England victory, they clinch a Wild Card bye and that will motivate the defense. I don’t necessarily believe he will turn into FitzTragic here, but I’m not believing in the Miami offense either.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards and Jameis Winston over 317.5 passing yards.

You can read about each of these quarterbacks above but as a summary, Jameis Winston should struggle without his main weapons against the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand should have a 300 yard day with the Chargers looking to end their miserable 2019 season.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 17 Wide Receiver DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The slate of DFS wide receivers is questionable with teams resting their stars with most of the playoff seeding figured out. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 17 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

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Week 17 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Davante Adams, GB @ DET

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,400)

Davante Adams had a great game against the Lions earlier this season with four touchdown receptions. You’d be crazy to expect that, but a solid game shouldn’t be questioned. He’s also coming off a game where he was targeted 16 times. He is Top 25 in both receptions and yardage with a weaker defense in Detroit. He should wreak havoc against the Lions yet again.

Michael Thomas, NO @ CAR

DK ($9,900) FD ($9,200)

It would be criminal to not include Michael Thomas on this list. He now has the all-time single-season reception record and still has one more regular-season game to play. He was dealing with a hand injury but won’t affect his status and Carolina (like the rest of the NFL) had trouble stopping him. Last time these teams met, 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. A slight opportunity for a Wild Card bye as well? Expect another big game.

Week 17 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Jarvis Landry, CLE @ CIN

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,800)

This one is simple: Jarvis Landry is the Browns’ best receiver. The Bengals have nothing to play for while the Browns still have the opportunity to build up chemistry for next season. Landry is 12th in the NFL in yardage and should get a good amount of looks to up to get him closer to the Top 10.

Amari Cooper, WAS vs DAL

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

This is Cooper’s last chance to show teams what he can do with impending free agency in the near future. The Cowboys lost their hold on the NFC East and need to win and have the Eagles lose to make the playoffs. With the reports that he was benched during last week’s game, this should be his chance to attack a weak secondary and show why he is still among the league’s top wideouts.

Week 17 Wide Receiver Fades

Juju Smith-Schuster, PIT @ BAL

DK ($5,500) FD ($5,900)

Juju didn’t look 100 percent last week against the New York Jets and I’m not sure he will be in this matchup either. He had seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens earlier this season. But with the opportunity of a playoff berth for the Steelers still there, I see Juju trying to pull it out but he isn’t healthy yet.

Stefon Diggs, CHI vs MIN

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

Diggs doesn’t get a crazy amount of targets as he only has one game this year with at least 10 targets. The Vikings have already clinched last Wild Card spot and this could be the reason Diggs gets pulled at halftime to prevent any injuries. Diggs isn’t as explosive against a good defense and I think he won’t produce as well as other wide receivers for this price.

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Davante Adams over 23.5 receptions.

Arguably three of the best wide receivers this season should hit this mark. Michael Thomas is dealing with a hand injury but will play this week and should continue getting double-digit catches himself. Jarvis Landry is dealing with a hip injury but it won’t affect his status either. The combination of Landry and Davante Adams should easily get 14 catches combined.

5 years ago 0 comments

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Strategy for the 2020 PGA Championship

Cash Game Core

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP

20 Max GPP

150 Max

Monkey Knife Fight

Week 17 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,200)

Tom Brady, NE @ MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,300)

Week 17 Quarterback GPP Plays

Russell Wilson, SF vs SEA

DK ($15,000) FD ($7,900)

Deshaun Watson, TEN vs HOU

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,000)

Patrick Mahomes, LAC vs KC

DK ($ 7,200) FD ($8,600)

Week 17 Quarterback Fades

Jameis Winston, ATL vs TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,100)

Case Keenum, WAS @ DAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,800)

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NE @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,400)

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Week 17 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Davante Adams, GB @ DET

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,400)

Michael Thomas, NO @ CAR

DK ($9,900) FD ($9,200)

Week 17 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Jarvis Landry, CLE @ CIN

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,800)

Amari Cooper, WAS vs DAL

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

Week 17 Wide Receiver Fades

Juju Smith-Schuster, PIT @ BAL

DK ($5,500) FD ($5,900)

Stefon Diggs, CHI vs MIN

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

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