MMA

UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown

This Thanksgiving week’s fight card brings us a Heavyweight tilt that is headlining this UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown slate. Our main event for the weekend will consist of Curtis Blaydes squaring off against Derrick Lewis. Six fights will be featured in the prelims with five being on the main card. For this eleven-fight slate I will be using DraftKings pricing. Blaydes will be featured as the top priced fighter as Lewis is the lowest priced fighter. I will be breaking down the main event along with three other fights that I am confident will end early to help maximize value. On this card we won’t have title fights or as many highly recognizable fighters as last week but is a fun card regardless. With two heavyweight matchups in the last three events, there is bound to be intensity in this card. Now let’s jump into the breakdown for this amazing fight slate!

Curtis Blaydes – ($9,300) vs Derrick Lewis ($6,900) – CANCELLED

Spike Carlyle – (8,900) vs Bill Algeo – ($7,300)

According to UFC stats, Algeo’s last two fights resulted in him being struck significantly over 100 times. In his last fight he was also taken down five times with his opponent (Ricardo Lamas) accumulating over six minutes of control time. Even with the fight being a decision Lamas scored over 100 DraftKings points. A big reason Algeo has taken a beating may be his lousy 35% strike defense. Algeo is a well-rounded fighter but leaves his hands low to his waist even when closing the distance, which allows him to get hit often.

Prior to Carlyle’s recent decision loss, he had managed three straight finishes in the first round by punches or ground and pound. Carlyle also had over nine minutes of control time his last fight, which is noteworthy if we compare it to Algeo’s last fight. Even if this fight doesn’t get finished early it has potential for a high scoring bout in a decision. I do think you can use Algeo as nice salary saver because if his defense has improved any, he has the potential. I however do not think his defense has improved and Carlyle catches him with a heavy counter strike early.

Selection – Spike Carlyle – ($8,900) 1^st round KO

Miguel Baeza – ($8,700) vs Takashi Sato – ($7,500)

Both of these fighters are relatively new to the UFC, neither of them have more than three fights with the organization. First, we will start with Baeza who has an undefeated record of 9-0 entering this matchup. He has looked excellent with his striking ability landing five knockdowns in his past three fights. Baeza does get hit about as often as he lands though which is a concern. With the most recent opponent being Matt Brown who is nearly 40 years old with over 40 professional fights under his belt. Brown had been finished in 13 of his 17 professional losses, so Baeza finishing him early was no surprise.

For Sato he will be entering his fourth UFC bout facing Baeza. His last fight against Jason Witt was an impressive victory that ended before the first minute of the first round. Sato is a fantastic striker as his last six wins have come from punches/ground and pound (four of those six ending first round). Sato’s two most recent losses have ended early via submission. Vegas has this fight much closer than the DraftKings pricing as Sato is just a +120 underdog. Each of these fighters haven’t shown the capability to avoid punches, so if this fight stays on the feet, I suspect it will end before the final bell. Sato can strike with Baeza, and Vegas has this fight much closer than the DraftKings pricing that’s why I will take Sato and his salary savings in this fight.

Selection – Takashi Sato – ($7,500) 2nd Round KO/TKO

Anthony Smith – ($8,500) vs Devin Clark – ($7,700)

Any fight that has Anthony Smith in it is unlikely to go the distance, I mean that. In his 49 fight professional career just five, that’s right five of his fights have gone to the judges scorecards. Smith absorbs nearly one and a half more strikes per minute than he lands. If we look at his last five fights he’s been out struck in all of them and two were even wins. Granted he has faced brutal opponents in Jon Jones and Glover Teixeira to name a few. Smith is an amazing championship level fighter that has been the main event for his last five trips to the octagon. A three round fight where he doesn’t need to worry about saving his gas tank may be what he needs to get back on track.

In Clark’s last two fight’s majority of his strikes landed have come in the clinch or on the ground. That is where Smith struggles with defending strikes the most is from the mat (Check last two fights). The last three fights Smith has lost he got dominated in the clinch and on the ground, this could be a very intriguing matchup given that’s where Clark’s strikes have come from. All of Clark’s UFC wins have come from a decision against not near the caliber opponents Smith has faced recently. If we look at Clark two fight’s ago he faced a fighter that doesn’t have a win in the UFC . I’m taking Smith to finish this fight early with his experience against high level competition.

Selection – Anthony Smith – ($8,500) 1st Round Submission

UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown MORE

After Blaydes fight being Cancelled Kamaka will gain plenty of ownership and Parisian may be a solid pivot.

Kai Kamaka – GPP – ($9,200)

Josh Parisian – GPP – ($9,000)

Malcolm Gordon – GPP – ($7,100)

Closing Thoughts

Thank you for taking the time to read my UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown this holiday week. Majority of these fights are extremely close in Vegas odds. DraftKings pricing and Vegas odds are lining up almost identical this week. Last week’s weigh-ins did bring some altering news with Mike Perry struggling mightily with his weight cut. Be sure to pop into the Discord Chat rooms and hangout as I will be in there after weigh-ins on Saturday before lock to provide updates and answer questions. Discord will be important this week after the main event getting cancelled, we may have changes to the card so check it out! These are my thoughts upon watching tape and evaluating numbers. Good luck let’s take down a GPP and WinDaily.

UFC 255 Fight Breakdown

We have a crazy UFC 255 Fight Breakdown this week as both Flyweight Titles will be on the line Saturday night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. This card has tons of early round finish potential with the headlining event of Deiveson Figueiredo defending his Flyweight Title against Alex Perez. Our other Flyweight Title fight this weekend is on the women’s side as Valentina Shevchenko goes head to head with Jennifer Maia. Saturday’s card consists of three early prelim fights, four prelim matchups, and the main card will have five bouts including the two title fights. Reminder to head to the Discord chat rooms I will be in there with updates after weight in’s as I’m posting this article on Thursday night. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article, but it can be used for both sites as I look for fights that will end early to maximize upside. I can’t wait to get into this amazing fight card so let’s jump in!

Valentina Shevchenko – ($9,600) vs Jennifer Maia ($6,600)

Let’s look at our first title fight on the night as Shevchenko looks to defend her title for the fourth consecutive time. Shevchenko is an amazing fighter a championship fighter plain and simple. She is only absorbing 2.12 significant strikes per minute in her UFC career. She has pretty well dominated in her title defenses, I don’t see that changing here facing Maia. Vegas would for sure agree with me as Shevchenko is a -1725 favorite which is an absurd number! She is the highest priced fighter on DraftKings so in my eyes she needs to score the most points for her to pay for her tag.

Maia is a good fighter but I don’t think she is better than Shevchenko in any aspect of the game. Maia lost to Katlyn Chookagian two fights ago and Shevchenko just finished Chookagian in the third round in her most recent title defense. I will likely be off this fight as I do see paths that Shevchenko doesn’t pay off her salary.

Deiveson Figueiredo – ($9,000) vs Alex Perez – ($7,200)

On to the second title fight and the main event of the evening as Figueiedo looks to defend his flyweight title. Figueiredo has devastating power, some would say the best in the weight class. He also has the black belt in Jiu Jitsu that shows with his seven submission finishes. His opponent Alex Perez who is replacing Cody Garbrandt has a good ground game as well averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes and recording seven submission wins in his career. Perez most impressive win was his recent knockout with two knockdowns facing Jussier Formiga. Formiga is now on a three-fight losing streak and that is Perez’s “signature win”.

Figueiredo has beaten Benavidez in two straight fights inside the distance with the more recent fight was an impressive showing. He knocked Benavidez down three times landing 35 significant strikes before ultimately getting a first round submission. Looking at the tape Figueiredo is much quicker with everything, his footwork keeps you circling and going where he wants you to. He controls the octagon and where a fighter moves. That shows as Figueirdo has the highest strike accuracy according to UFC Stats on the card. (not including fighters with one or fewer fights in the UFC) Once he smells blood in the water he goes for nasty elbows or a submission. Benavidez had yet to be submitted until Figueiredo, and Perez has been submitted in three of his five losses. I will have 100% of this fight, likely 70% Figueiredo and 30% Perez.

Louis Cosce – (9,300) vs Sasha Palatnikov – ($6,900)

Looking at the fight that leads off the evening is my first target. Louis Cosce is 7-0 with seven wins coming before the end of the first bell. Cosce is a good wrestler but an excellent striker with five of his wins coming via knockout. He had to earn his way onto the UFC scene thru Dana White’s Contender Series recording a first-round knockout there. Victor Reyna was the fighter Cosce beat on the contender series and he held a solid 11-5 professional record. Vegas currently has Cosce as a -455 favorite over Palatnikov.

Palatnikov last fought with UAE in the Middle East. His last win was against a fighter that was 5-6 in the UAE. Palatnikov hasn’t faced good UFC competition yet other than Mounir Lazzez, but he lost via knockout in the first round. That is the likely outcome again for Palatnikov as Cosce continues to roll with his first-round win streak in his UFC debut.

Selection – Louis Cosce ($9,300) 1^st round KO

Juaquin Buckley – ($8,900) vs Jordan Wright – ($7,300)

Wright had a fantastic UFC debut, using a knee to open a massive gash on Ike Villanueva that ultimately led to a doctor’s stoppage. Wright is trained by a former kick boxing champion and NCAA D1 wrestler. Looking at Wright’s 11 wins, six have come by knockout and five submission. He is a finishing machine, his kickboxing and knees are nasty as we saw recently. That is where he has an advantage training with a wrestler. Buckley has yet to have a takedown attempted on him, I expect that to change in this matchup. Especially if he feels Buckley’s power early. Wright will get this to the ground and search for the neck to get one of his chokes (likely rear naked choke).

Obviously Buckley had the insane spinning back kick knockout in his last matchup that went viral. The amount of strikes in that fight were extremely close though. He has the power and finish ability, but that 32% strike accuracy in the UFC scares me some. Buckley had calculated strikes in his previous fight and looked sharp even landing a takedown. He was constantly moving forward and rattling off combinations. This fight will not go the distance and is a tough fight to predict but I will take the savings of Jordan Wright. Other than Kevin Holland, Buckley’s last loss was to Logan Storley a Bellator fighter who’s foundation style is wrestling.

Selection – Jordan Wright ($7,300) 1^st round submission

Brandon Moreno – ($8,600) vs Brandon Royval – ($7,600)

First off, this could be a fight of the night contender as I love the matchup for these two. Both fighters are exceptional in Jiu Jitsu, Royval holding a blackbelt. Proof of that as Royval has eight submission finishes in his twelve wins. Out of Moreno’s seventeen professional fighting wins ten have been by submission.

Royval has a value price tag on DraftKings given he’s only a +145 underdog in Vegas. Let’s breakdown the striking aspect for these two. Watching these two in their recent fights I give Royval a slight edge as his last fight was a striking matchup with Kara France where he scored two official knockdowns. Those knockdowns came after Kara France recorded his own knockdown on his first hit. In the UFC Royval has found a way to get submission attempts as he is averaging 3.2 attempts per fifteen minutes.

Moreno holds a brown belt in Jiu Jitsu so he’s no slouch in grappling either. He has shown he is a better striker than his early UFC days, but that strike accuracy of 34% is nearly 20% less that his opponents. If we backtrack to a fight just a year ago against a great grappler in Asker Askarov, the contest resulted in a draw. Moreno has looked sharp in his two fights since then out striking both of his opponents. Those two contests resulted in decision wins for Moreno. If this fight ends early, I see Royval being the winner. Even if Royval doesn’t get a finish he has a much better path to hitting value at his price with a decision win.

Selection – Brandon Royval ($7,600) 2^nd round Submission

Daniel Rodriguez – ($9,100) vs Nicolas Dalby ($7,200)

This Welterweight bout will feature a fighter that throws absolute haymakers in Daniel Rodriguez. Daniel Rodriquez in his last fight recorded three knockdowns! Not just three knockdowns in a three round fight but in the first round! He has shown the ability to pay off this price tag without a knockout as well. Two fights ago he scored 125.5 DraftKings points in a three round fight. He recorded 175 significant strikes in his brawl with Gabe Green. I’m not sure that happens again but the volume of strikes is extraordinary. D-Rod is the much better striker in this matchup and has shown he can finish a fight with a submission in an impressive win over Tim Means (facing Mike Perry on this card).

As far as Dalby not much to like here for me. He could be on his last run in the UFC with his 2-4 record, with one win being split decision. He has been knocked down in four of his last five fights in the UFC and in the fight he didn’t get knocked down in he was taken down three times. In his last four fights he has had three submission attempts while being submitted once. He gets hit more per minute than he lands, partially due to the strike accuracy a low 38%. Sounds like tons of potential for Dalby to be finished but his opposition falling just short. Dalby in my opinion hasn’t faced a fighter with this power and he was still getting knocked down. D-Rod catches Dalby early and continues by hammer fisting his way to a first-round win.

Selection – Daniel Rodriguez ($9,100) 1^st round KO

MORE UFC 255 Fight Breakdown

Tim Means – GPP – ($8,000)

Kyle Daukus – GPP – ($8,800)

Maurico Rua – GPP – ($7,700)

UFC 255 Fight Breakdown Closing Thoughts

As I mentioned earlier this UFC 255 Fight Breakdown article will be up on Thursday night before weigh ins. You’ll want to make sure you check out the Discord Chat rooms on Friday after weigh ins and Saturday before lock as I will be in there to answer any questions. This is a very intriguing fight card with tons of power and early finish potential, with two fights for hardware to cap the night off. Alex Perez for example I won’t have a bunch of, but he provides value in a fight that I don’t see going the distance. If he is able to finish that fight early in a five round bout he will likely exceed value tremendously. In UFC you must take some chances especially if you look to be different from the field in the big 150K to win contest. Thank you for taking the time to read my content. Good luck this UFC 255 weekend and WinDaily.