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UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad
We are back for a thirteen-fight UFC Fight Night card with Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad headlining the event. This week’s main card will consist of six fights while the prelims will carry the other seven. Our highest-priced fighter on DraftKings this week is Angela Hill who is also the largest betting favorite at –375 currently. Last week was tough for me because my highest-owned fighter was Petr Yan and well, he got disqualified. Another surprise came last week as all scheduled bouts stayed together. That has been a rarity as of late so be sure to pop in the Discord Chat rooms to stay updated on the latest news. Our WinDaily staff members including myself will be in there to answer questions and keep you updated on all situations.

For my article, I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. This week we will breakdown the Main Event on the evening Edwards vs Muhammad. After that, it is time for my top three fights that I believe have a great chance to end early to maximize value. Time for this week’s picks and hopefully a better result Saturday night!

UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad

Belal Muhammad ($7,200) vs Leon Edwards ($9,000)

The first thing I want to note here is that Muhammad will be without his head coach in the corner this weekend as he tested positive for Covid. If I’m being honest, I don’t love this main event. Edwards has been in two main events in his last three fights scoring 68.4 and 99.1 fantasy points in those victories. His strikes landed per minute are also down at 2.53. He will sit and pick his shots but doesn’t have that electric power, if he were to get a finish, I think it’s because he picks Muhammad apart. The three takedowns and control time against a great grappler like Rafael Dos Anjos were impressive to me as well.

The week hasn’t started well for Muhammad as I mentioned and he was already the underdog. He is nearly doubling his opponent in strikes landed at 4.86. Edwards is the best opponent Muhammad has faced to this point in his career in my eyes. If his strike defense can stay at 60% against a talented fighter I will be impressed. I think the step-up will be tough for Muhammad this time around I will have about 70% of this fight with 50% of that on Leon Edwards.

Ryan Spann ($7,900) vs Misha Cirkunov ($8,300)

These two fighters are extraordinary to watch with excellent finishing potential. We see Cirkunov come in with 20 career fights and only two going the distance. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown in by submitting his opponent in the first round in his last two wins. He does contain a positive strike ratio of +1.29 and a great strike defense of 62%. Let’s just cut to the chase, Cirkunov has appeared in the UFC nine times all of which ended early and just two of those fights went past round 1.

Spann has twenty-four fights in his career with only five of those hearing the final bell. In his last fight, Spann was knocked out in round one by Johnny Walker. Spann did however score two knockdowns in that first round. Walker also knocked out Cirkunov in round one two fights ago for Cirkunov. Entering this bout Spann carries a strike ratio of -.15. The Guillotine submission from Spann is something Cirkunov will have to watch out for. It worries me that Cirkunov has been out for about a year and a half but his black belt should allow him to be successful here.
Selection – Misha Cirkunov ($8,300) 1st round submission.

Ray Rodriguez ($7,000) vs Rani Yahya ($9,200)

Yahya enters this bout as one of the largest favorites on the card at –300. He contains a second-degree black belt in BJJ and that shows with 20 of his 26 wins coming via submission. We see more proof as he averages nearly a takedown each round at 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. It is unlikely he wins this with striking with his 1.59 strikes landed per minute. He looks to mainly work his BJJ and that should be in his favor in this matchup.

Rodriguez has the last two straight and was submitted in round one in his UFC debut (last fight). We also see him having been finished three times by submission in his career. His takedown defense in his two UFC stat recorded fight is 40%. He has an awful strike ratio of –4.49 in those two fights as well. This will be another tough test for the young Rodriguez and I think he still has a lot to learn and work on.
Selection – Rani Yahya ($9,200) 1st round submission

Gavin Tucker ($7,600) vs Dan Ige ($8,600)

This fight is my favorite fight on the card and I believe it can be high scoring even if it goes the distance. Dan Ige’s last fight was a five-round bout against Calvin Kattar in which he lasts all five rounds. He is a good striker with fast hands but lacks tremendous power, evidence of that with only three knockouts in 18 wins. Ige does contain a black belt in BJJ but failed to record a takedown on nine attempts against Kattar. His two wins before the Kattar fighter were both questionable split decision wins in my eyes.

Tucker’s last fight was a great win over Billy Quarantillo and the two wins before that were third-round submissions. In that fight, I thought Tucker set up his takedowns well which allowed him to record seven of them. Much like Ige, Tucker has his black belt in BJJ. Tucker’s striking is also a well-rounded look at his previous two fights especially against Jaynes where he doubled Jaynes’ output. In my mind, Ige will be the toughest opponent that Tucker has faced to this point. Both fighters have excellent cardio and should be able to duel all 15 minutes if necessary.

Selection – Gavin Tucker ($7,600) 3rd round submission

UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad

Honorable Mentions:

Nasrat Haqparast – ($9,400)

Manel Kape – ($8,700)

Matthew Semelsberger – ($8,400)

Marcelo Rojo – ($7,100)

Final Thoughts UFC Fight Night Breakdown
This will be a fun card thirteen fight card that has already seen changes occur to it. The bout between Philipe Lins and Ben Rothwell is scratched being replaced by Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia. Remember to join the WinDaily staff and me in Discord to stay updated on the latest news. You will find me in there after weigh-ins on Friday and throughout the day until the slate lock on Saturday. I will be going lighter than last week with lineups again saving for an amazing UFC 260 card later this month. I hope you enjoyed this week’s edition of UFC Fight Night breakdown and I appreciate you reading. Would have been a nice week if it weren’t for Petr Yan last week but let’s bounce back and turn those screens green! Good Luck!

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We have a spectacular card this weekend with UFC 259 containing three championship fights in Las Vegas. Our card will be a total of fifteen fights, the main card with five fights, prelims containing four fights, and early prelims carrying six bouts. The main event will be for the light heavyweight belt with Jan Blachowicz facing Israel Adesanya. It should be no surprise that Amanda Nunes is the largest betting favorite coming in at –1100. She will also be the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings at a hefty $9,600 price tag. If we keep all fifteen fights on this card (unlikely) it will be a card where you can be different and take chances to win that 200K top prize on DraftKings!

This week Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown will be unique with three title matches. I will talk about each and give an overview of my thoughts and still give a selection and where I’m at with ownership on those fighters. Then we will get back to normal with the three fights that have high potential to score high or end early. There is no more time to waste before this exciting card, so check out these picks!

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Light Heavyweight Title
Jan Blachowicz ($7,000) vs Israel Adesanya ($9,200)

The main note for this matchup is that Adesanya is fighting up a weight class here to Light Heavyweight. Jan has won two straight fights by knockout in the first two rounds displaying his power. Adesanya will have to get in and out very quickly which he is capable of doing. One advantage I see for Jan is his blackbelt in BJJ and he could have that extra weight pending what Izzy weighs in at. An 86% takedown defense is astonishing for Adesanya against fighters in his weight class. The speed of Adesanya could be lethal moving up a weight class but so could the added weight and power of Jan. I will have 90% exposure to this matchup and my ownership will be split in half for both fighters.

Women’s Featherweight Title
Megan Anderson ($6,600) vs Amanda Nunes ($9,600)

There is a good reason for Nunes to be a massive favorite for this fight. Her opponent has a strike ratio of –1.12, while Nunes sports a +1.97-strike ratio. Nunes has won 11 straight with eight of those being championship fights. Anderson’s last win on the other hand was against Norma Dumont who was making her UFC debut. In her last two fights, Nunes has recorded six and eight takedowns to dominate those decision wins. It is looking like I will have around 80% exposure to this fight with all shares siding with one of the greatest to do it, Amanda Nunes.

Bantamweight Title
Aljamain Sterling ($7,800) vs Petr Yan ($8,400)

What makes this fight interesting is the pricing which matchups the odds in Vegas where neither fighter is favored right now. This fight will be spectacular and may just win the fight of the night honors. We have Sterling as a long fighter that touches you often but lacks power and we see that with just two knockouts in his MMA career. I do like that Sterling has a black belt in BJJ and just made quick work of Sandhagen with a first-round submission. A submission is the only way Sterling wins in my eyes.

Yan is one of the best switch hitters in MMA and he showed that against Aldo landing 258 total strikes with 194 significant strikes. The takedown and submission worry me for Yan but I will trust his 88% takedown defense.
I will have 100% of this fight due to the pricing, the close matchup, and the extremely tight Vegas odds. I will be targeting 70% Yan and 30% Sterling heading into this weekend.

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Aalon Cruz ($7,300) vs Uros Medic ($8,900)

Uros Medic is making his UFC debut in this fight but comes in with a 6-0 record all ending in finishes. He is a great striker with power and we’ve seen that with two straight first-round finishes. Medic will throw spinning attacks and has a dangerous left hand that comes right down the middle. My main concern for Medic is the level of competition he has faced isn’t great. A seven-inch reach advantage is no joke for Cruz although it isn’t very often, we see him use it.

For Cruz, he is a big body 155 that is moving up a weight class where Medic is moving down. My concerns with Medic are the 39% strike accuracy and the first-round loss to Spike Carlyle. Medic has the power and flashy moves which is almost exactly what Spike brings to the table. If Cruz can use his reach advantage to touch Medic and keep him from closing the distance often is how I see him winning. I will post an update on this one after weigh-ins I want to see how Medic looks coming down from 170 pounds to 155.

Selection – Uros Medic ($8,900) 1st round KO

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($7,200) vs Carlos Ulberg ($9,000)

We have a very interesting fight here with Carlos Ulberg making his UFC debut. Ulberg was a great kickboxer before joining the UFC and only has five MMA fights. Ulberg has ended his last fight early in round one. He has ended his last three kickboxing bouts before the final bell as well. Ulberg does show good head movement and the ability to keep his distance in the cage. He trains out of City Kickboxing with Israel Adesanya which should be noted. Ulberg will do well when he can worry about just the striking of his opponent as he can do here.

When evaluating Nzechukwu I see that he holds out his left hand to keep his distance in check. A strike accuracy of 39% is a low number facing Ulberg who can keep his distance with his kickboxing abilities. The good things for Nzechukwu are his six-inch reach advantage and the actual MMA experience that he has. Let’s add one more thing to that list and that is massive power he has a huge frame hence the reach advantage. I will have a few shares of Nzechukwu heading into the weekend but the majority of my shares will be on Ulberg.

Selection – Carlos Ulberg ($9,000) 1st round KO

Thiago Santos ($7,600) vs Aleksandar Rakic ($8,600)

This should be a thriller in the light heavyweight division. Looking into Rakic he is a very athletic light heavyweight with a lean body type. He shows great power in his striking with four knockdowns in his last five fights. The strike landed to absorbed ratio is sitting at an impressive +2.67 heading into this fight. If Santos can get his leg kicks going again Rakic is heavy on his feet and those Santos leg kicks would be damaging.

The leg kicks declining for Santos could be a result of the leg injuries he accrued from the Jon Jones fight. He is still an excellent striker that has scored four knockdowns in four fights one of those coming in the loss to Glover Teixeira. Santos has a striking ratio of +2.04 to solidify his striking ability. If he could get back to landing those heavy-leg kicks, I would like him against Rakic here. Both fighters can end this fight at any time and I will have significant ownership to this fight. Rakic is coming off a dominating win against Anthony Smith but this will likely be his toughest test. Santos has had about the toughest three guys in the light heavyweight class in his last three fights

Selection – Thiago Santos – ($7,600) 2nd round KO

Honorable Mentions:

Islam Makhachev – ($9,400)

Sean Brady – ($9,300)

Casey Kenney – ($8,100)

Joseph Benavidez – ($7,900)

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Final Thoughts
That will wrap up this amazing card and edition of Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown. It should be a fantastic fifteen fights if we have zero cancellations leading into the weekend. For UFC cards the Discord Chat rooms are extremely important due to Covid and late fight scratches. There has been at least one fight per week thrown out for several weeks in a row. In Discord, you will find WinDaily staff members including myself answering any questions you made have. It is also a fantastic place to keep up with any news that breaks for this week’s slate. We will be without NBA this weekend so I will be playing more than normal for this card. Good luck this weekend and let’s make it a payday!

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Last week’s card was absolute fireworks having many early finishes occur. For this week’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown, I would expect a decline in early finishes. We have a smaller card this Saturday as we have eleven fights to choose from. If the trend continues, we will lose one of these fights later in the week which makes Discord Chat important. This week’s largest favorite on the card is Angela Hill who is a –370 favorite in Vegas. However, the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings is Magomed Ankalaev at $9,300 and a –355 favorite. Our main event on this card will be between two rising heavyweight contenders in Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

In this article, I will look to breakdown my three favorite fights that have the best odds to finish early or score high based upon my research. I will also breakdown this week’s Heavyweight main event. For this article, I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. Time to dig into this week’s top three fights to target!

UFC Fight Night Breakdown Gane vs Rozenstruik

Ciryl Gane ($9,000) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,200)

We have a fun main event that I am confident will not hear the final bell. Each of these fighters only has one fight that has gone the distance. Both fighter’s most recent fight was against Junior Dos Santos and both secured second-round knockouts. Looking at Rozenstruik we get a fighter with massive one-punch power to turn anyone’s lights out in a flash. He loves to strike and has the striking advantage there in my eyes. If Gane goes for a takedown we see a solid takedown defense from Rozenstruik at 75%.

Gane has looked great in his first four UFC fights all victories three of which ended before the final bell. Gane has had impressive striking numbers with a +3.66 striking ratio due to his 75% strike defense. The only fight Gane has gotten a takedown was against Don’tale Mayes where he recorded three. This fight against these two Heavyweights will be amazing. I will have 100% exposure to this fight but will be at 50% Gane and 50% Rozenstruik.

Nikita Krylov ($6,900) vs Magomed Ankalaev ($9,300)

These two fighters should bring excitement to the Co-main event. Krylov has a record of 27-7 with only one win and one loss needing the judge’s scores. I am surprised with the salaries here, Krylov is no joke with his +2.09 striking numbers. His strike defense of 41% is my main concern here. He does have knockouts via kicks as well and I think he can keep Ankalaev at his distance if he wants. Ankalaev’s only loss came by submission and Krylov is averaging 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

There is a good reason for the hype train behind Ankalaev as he has won five straight with four of those by way of knockout. He has two straight first-round knockouts and five of his six UFC fights have ended early. Ankalaev has impressive striking numbers as well with a +2.22-strike landed to absorbed ratio. That strike defense is much better than Krylov’s at 68%. He should avoid the majority of Krylov’s takedown attempts with his takedown defense of 85%. I will be backing the second largest betting favorite on this card in Ankalaev.

Selection – Magomed Ankalaev ($9,300) 1st round KO

Kevin Croom ($7,400) vs Alex Caceres ($8,800)

Each of these fighters enters this fight with twelve losses and both have been finished in eight of those losses. We will start with Croom as he did get an impressive first-round victory in his last fight before having it overturned due to a positive marijuana test. Croom enters this bout with 10 submission finishes and Caceres has been finished by submission in seven of his losses. The striking for Croom is shown in his last fight with an early knockdown of Roberts before the Guillotine finish.

Lately, Caceres striking has improved in my eyes throwing more combinations. He does carry a +1.24-striking ratio in his UFC career in large part due to 65% strike defense. Caceres does not have that one much knockout power. He pumps out those jabs and looks to set up his combinations. Neither fighter has faced fierce competition but I give the edge to Caceres in that department. The salary of Caceres makes this an easy decision for me, I will take Croom and his ten submissions.

Selection – Kevin Croom ($7,400) 2nd round submission

Montana De La Rosa ($7,800) vs Mayra Bueno Silva ($8,400)

These fighters both struggle on their feet and with striking. Start with De La Rosa who carries a -.35-strike ratio to go along with a lousy 35% strike accuracy. De La Rosa holds her hands low and punches just to set up the takedown and forces takedown attempts. She will throw out punches and look desperate for a takedown look at the 30% takedown accuracy to see she is not extraordinarily successful at it. With eight of her 11 wins coming by submission, she has shown once she gets it to the mat it could be game over.

It will be tough to get Bueno Silva to the mat and even if De La Rosa does that the mat is Silva’s strong suit as well. Bueno Silva comes into this bout with a –2.3 striking ratio, the majority of that came from one fight though. The other three fights on the UFC record all finished in the first round by submission. Silva has shown good defensive grappling as her two UFC wins by submission came without her recording a takedown. The near two submission attempts per 15 minutes are standing out for Silva as well.

Selection – Mayra Bueno Silva 2nd round Submission

Honorable Mentions

Sabina Mazo – ($8,900)

Ramazan Kuramagomedov – ($8,300)

Maxim Grishin – ($7,700)

Thiago Moises – ($7,500)

UFC Fight Night Breakdown Gane vs Rozenstruik

Final Thoughts
That will wrap It up for this eleven-fight card and UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis. Discord Chat is extremely important for UFC as we had two fights canceled after weigh-ins and one canceled during the fighter’s walkout. The WinDaily staff and I hang out in discord and break any news that arises or answering any questions you may have. I will be in Discord after weigh-ins on Friday and Saturday afternoon until slate lock. Magomed Ankalaev is the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings and will be my highest-owned fighter. Check out our other UFC and NBA articles for tonight and watch your screen turn green! Enjoy your last weekend of February!

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What an amazing main event last week for the Welterweight title between Usman and Burns. Usman showed why he is the champion after recovering early to win in round three. For this week’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown, we will have a Heavyweight main event of Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. We are currently scheduled for a massive fifteen-fight card this weekend! Lately, in MMA we have had at least one cancellation it seems per week. Currently, the largest betting favorite at –440 and the highest priced fighter on DraftKings is Curtis Blaydes.

In this article, I will be breaking down four fights in total. First, I will cover the main event before covering my three favorite fights that are likely to end early this weekend. There are fifteen fights scheduled, even if some get scratched, we should still have enough fights to be different in some areas. A massive fight card awaits us this weekend so let’s start the breakdown!

UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis

Curtis Blaydes ($9,400) vs Derrick Lewis ($6,800)

Originally this bout was scheduled for back in December now we get to see it finally occur. Blaydes has opened the week as the betting favorite and remains that way moving to a –450 favorite. The numbers are all in favor of Blaydes in this bout as he is better in every statistical category other than takedown defense. He sets up his takedowns with his striking and is averaging nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes. He enters this fight on a four-fight win streak. The gas tank shouldn’t be an issue, as his last fight was the main event that went all five rounds.

Lewis enters this clash with his three-fight winning streak. His volume is concerning to me as in those three fights his largest output was 35 significant strikes. That doesn’t set up well for his strike defense that is tied for lowest on the card at 44%. That was in his fight against Oleinik that ended in round two as well. In two of those fights, Lewis was taken down three times meaning Blaydes shouldn’t struggle to land his takedowns. I will have 70% Blaydes and 30% Lewis simply due to the massive salary relief he offers.

Patrick Sabatini ($7,300) vs Rafael Alves ($8,900)

Each of these fighters will be making their UFC debut in this fight. Both fighters attain black belts in Jiu-Jitsu as well. If we look at Alves we see that he does have power but won’t throw a high volume usually. His takedown defense is fantastic and will get a grasp for a Guillotine choke if given the chance. Of Alves’ 19 wins he has finished seven fighters by both submission and knockout. What concerns me is his gas tank if he misses his power shots, we see this in his losses as all nine have resulted in Alves being finished early.

Sabatini is taking this fight on just eight days’ notice. I would say Sabatini is the more technical striker and lands his shots straight down the center. We see less power in thirteen wins he has two knockouts with nine submissions. Sabatini does switch up his stances and will be able to give Alves some different looks while standing. It is going to be tough on just eight days’ notice to beat anyone in the UFC especially in your debut. This is an awesome fight that should bring fireworks between two new arrivals. I think Alves tries to keep this on the feet for the first round and use his power to avoid the blackbelt vs blackbelt situation.

Selection – Rafael Alves ($8,900) 1st round KO

Phillip Hawes ($8,200) vs Nassourdine Imavov ($8,000)

Both of these fighters will be entering their second career UFC fight and each carrying a 9-2 record. Let’s start with Hawes who has had every fight of his career end early while recording seven knockouts and two submission wins. He has three fights registered in UFC stats and owns a -.67-strike landed to absorbed ratio. That doesn’t mean he lacks power though as he has finished three straight fights by first-round knockout.

For Imavov we only have one UFC fight for statistics so it’s tough to gauge that but he had a +2.53-strike landed to absorbed ratio. What stands out to me watching Imavov was his constant attempts to get a takedown after attempting eight in his UFC debut. Although he landed only one of those takedowns, he turned that into four submission attempts. In my opinion, Imavov is more of the dual-threat fighter in this matchup. This fight should be fun and could go for the fight of the night as the two have a combined five first-round finishes in their last three fights. This is the toughest test for both fighters and it could go either way, which should make for a hell of a fight.

Selection – Nassourdine Imavov ($8,000) 2nd round submission

Chris Daukaus ($8,600) vs Aleksei Oleinik ($7,600)

This will be a heavyweight matchup between an aged veteran of Oleinik and a newer face in Daukaus. A record of 59-14-1 shows that Oleinik has been around the block and back maybe even a few times. In those 59 wins, 46 have come by submission and 8 by knockout showing his wins typically end early. He attains a 4th-degree black belt in jujutsu and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The 2.43 takedown average per 15 minutes will be important here as I believe Oleinik holds the clear advantage on the mat in this bout.

Daukus hasn’t defended a takedown yet in his UFC career and could get worked if Oleinik gets him to the mat. The raw power and striking ability from Daukaus have been on display early in his UFC career. We see this in his +6.13-striking landed to absorbed ratio but this is his toughest opponent yet. His first two fights ended in a first-round to go with his nine career knockouts in 10 professional wins. Only one of Daukaus’ fights has gone the distance as he has been finished in all three of his losses. I will have both sides of this fight but more Oleinik. I see him wear on Daukaus and get a submission although it may not be in the first round.

Selection – Aleksei Oleinik 2nd round Submission

Honorable Mentions

Tom Aspinall – ($9,200)

Drako Rodriguez – ($8,700)

Nate Landwehr – ($8,100)

Darrick Minner – ($7,400)

UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis

Final Thoughts
I am a huge fan of this card due to the size and opportunity to get more unique with some lineups to try and hit big. The card can easily shrink as we have seen in the past so Discord Chat is always a big part of MMA. In Discord you will find other Win Daily staff members and me, answering any questions and breaking news that may appear. I will specifically be in Discord after weigh in’s on Friday and Saturday afternoon up to lineup lock. We have some extremely close odds such as Landwehr vs Erosa, where both fighters sit at –115 according to Vegas Odds. This card has me interested to the point I will put in a few more lineups than usual.

Have an awesome weekend and enjoy a large UFC fight card. Thanks for reading my article Bombcarlo’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis and good luck!

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Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns 

Welcome back for another fantastic weekend of fights with UFC 258 Usman vs Burns. The eleven-bout event will be headlined with a clash of two teammates fighting for Welterweight gold. Another note is there are three lady fights this week including the Co-Main event. Usman comes into this clash being a -275 favorite looking for his third straight title defense. Our heaviest favorite on this card is Belal Muhammad at a -480 in Vegas. However, Rodolfo Vieira is the highest priced fighter on DraftKings at $9,300. Discord Chat is always important for UFC as any fight can get cancelled anytime nowadays. We have already seen evidence of that early this week as Jimmie Rivera vs Pedro Munhoz will already be moved to a later date. In Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns I will breakdown my top three fights that have early finish potential along with the main event.  Enough jabbing around let’s get into this Championship card breakdown! 

Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns 

First off, this is going to be a hard fight to predict because these two were teammates prior to training for this fight. These two trained together before knowing this fight was a possibility at some point and Burns said earlier this week that Usman already knows he can submit him. Really that comes as no surprise as Burns holds a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. The biggest problem I feel Burns will face is the hands of Usman as Kamaru holds a +2.27-strike landed to absorbed ratio. Burns is still positive figures at +.41 but not near the level of Usman’s. Kamaru has a black belt himself and a 100% takedown defense according to UFC stats so it will be tough for Burns. I will have 100% of this and it should be a hell of a fight! My exposure will likely be 70% Usman and 30% Burns. 

Jim Miller ($7,300) vs Bobby Green ($8,900) 

This is a matchup of two aging UFC veterans. It is clear that Miller would have the advantage on the ground with his black belt in jiu jitsu and Division one wrestling resume. We could also look at his 18 submission victories or his near two submission attempts per 15 minutes. Miller does a nice job as throwing punches just to set up his submissions specifically his chokes. I don’t think Miller really has to worry about the power of green as he hasn’t finished a fight early in over seven years.  

Green likes to strike we see that with his +1.85 strikes landed to absorbed ratio. I just think he lacks power to end fights. His last knockout as I mentioned was seven years ago and if we look for another knockout, we would have to go back ten years. The last six victories for Green have all been by decision and that dates back to 2013. I can’t pay this price for Green as a decision win here won’t pay this price tag. A decision win for Miller will likely still result in him hitting value with his grappling and DraftKings new scoring for grapplers. Not saying this is a clear cut early finish I just like Miller to get the win here and pay off his cheap price tag. 

Selection – Jim Miller ($7,000) 2nd  round submission 

UFC 258 Usman vs Burns

Philip Rowe ($8,200) vs Gabe Green ($8,000) 

Each of these fighters only have one career fight that heard the final bell which screams fight of the night potential. Let’s start with Gabe Green who has finished all his wins early, three by knockout and six by submission. His striking in his UFC debut (which was on short notice) was impressive as he struck with Daniel Rodriguez who is known as a striker. In that fight he landed 8.47 strikes per minute which shows the volume and stamina is there as that fight went to a decision. 

Philip Rowe has also finished all of his victories early with three knockouts and four by submission. His strike defense is pretty shaky to me though and I think that gets him in trouble even with a near seven-inch reach advantage. In his previous fight on the Contender Series Rowe was actually knocked down early in that fight before bouncing back to get a knockout win. That fight against Shahbazyan was the only win Rowe has against a fighter with an above .500 record. Rowe has finish potential so I wouldn’t rule a win out I just think it’s too early/quick for him. Regardless I really think having a piece of this fight is important. 

Selection – Gabe Green ($8,000) 2nd round KO 

Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300) vs Anthony Hernandez ($7,200) 

It is clear where Vieira has an advantage coming into most of his fights and that’s on the mat. The man is a multi-time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champion and has submitted both of his UFC opponents before the end of round two. Vieira comes into this clash 7-0 with all seven wins resulting in an early finish six of those by submission.  

Hernandez doesn’t mind grappling either but it probably isn’t recommended against this opponent. He throws more strikes than Vieira but Hernandez gets hit more than he throws with a strike landed to absorbed ratio of –1.58. Coming into this fight he attains a record of 7-2 with six early finishes five of those by way of submission. Only one of Hernandez’s nine career fights have gone the distance. Once this gets to the ground it should be over in favor of Vieira he’s shown that with submissions in three straight fights none of which went past round two. 

Selection – Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300) 1st round Submission 

Honorable Mentions:

Belal Muhammad – ($9,200)

Julian Marquez – $8,700)

Polyana Viana – ($7,600)

Ian Heinisch – ($7,400)

Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns

Final Thoughts 

I’m really gearing up for a crazy next two months or so of UFC cards including UFC 258 Usman vs Burns. We have some amazing cards to look forward too with loads of title fights in the near future. Discord Chat is important for UFC as we’ve seen fights get cancelled shortly before lineups lock. In Discord you will find Win Daily  staff members and myself as we answer any questions you may have or provide updates on our top plays. I will be in Discord after weigh ins as I do evaluate them and we need to make sure both in the Championship fight do make weight. Before lock on Saturday will be my most active time in Discord this week so feel free to jump in and ask questions. Enjoy your Saturday night and hopefully we helped you knockout a huge tournament! 

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UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

We were able to enjoy a week off from UFC last week after three fight cards in seven days. After a short layoff were back with a solid fight card this week before we finally see the Usman vs Burns title fight. This week’s card UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov has been altered already as two fights on the main card have changed. It has been difficult to get an article this week as DraftKings is waiting to add some fighters when fights are confirmed by the UFC. On DraftKings the highest priced fighter is Cory Sandhagen although Cody Stamann is the largest betting favorite at -500. In this article I will be strictly looking for fights that I believe end early to maximize my ceiling on DraftKings. You especially want to look into that with the big early knockout bonus they started offering after the new year. For this card I will breakdown my three favorite fights to target and evaluate the main event.  

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov 

This fight is bound to be fireworks, these two combined bring in 66 total finishes before the final bell! I will have 100 exposure to his fight likely to lean 60% Volkov and 40% Overeem. I feel these two are very evenly matched together that’s why my exposure is close and might change to 50-50. Overeem fights typically don’t need judges, in 65 career fights just eight have gone the distance. In 15 of his 18 losses Overeem didn’t see the final bell which is my biggest concern.

I like Volkov on the feet he has been doing well at picking his shots and staying out of range. His strikes landed to strikes absorbed numbers show that with a +2.23-striking ratio. My concern for Volkov is getting beat on the mat where Overeem has 17 submissions finishes. These two Heavyweights will settle this without needing the judges and that’s always a recipe for an amazing main event! 

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov

Justin Jaynes ($7,000) vs Devonte Smith ($9,200) 

We have an entertaining matchup here against two pure strikers. Neither of these fighters have landed a successful takedown according to UFC stats. These two fighters look for that knockout bonus and throw with heavy hands. Smith has yet to see judges’ score cards as all of his professional fights have ended early. All of his previous three fights failed to make it past round one.

Jaynes has finished 13 of his 16 wins inside the distance as well. Two of Jaynes last three fights were stopped in the first round but all three of those never saw the final bell. I will roll with Jaynes here due to the massive salary savings. I do feel he has the knockout upside and that he has the advantage the longer this fight goes. If you can afford Smith he is a solid play as well holding massive early finish upside and he’s proven it. I’ll have shares of both but love the savings on Jaynes. 

Selection – Justin Jaynes ($7,000) 1st round KO 

Diego Ferreira ($8,200) vs Beneil Dariush ($8,000) 

Both of these fighters have really improved their boxing in their recent fights. Dariush has three straight finishes before the second round was over. Two of those were by knockouts showing his boxing improvement. I give Dariush a slight edge in the grappling department mainly due to his defensive grappling and 80% takedown defense. Although Ferreira has improved his boxing, I don’t think he offers major knockout power with just three knockouts in 17 wins. I personally think this is an awesome matchup stylistically and has potential for fight of the night. With that mentioned I do believe one of these two can pay off their salary if this goes to a decision. I will have plenty of exposure to this fight for that given reason. 

Selection – Beneil Dariush ($8,000) 2nd round KO 

Mike Rodriguez ($9,000) vs Danilo Marques ($7,200) 

It looks to me that this fight is getting over looked and rightfully so with several other heavier favorites on this card. Marques really hasn’t beaten anyone and his lone UFC win was against Khadis Ibragimov whom went 0-4 in his UFC tenure. That was an ugly fight and was painful to watch although Marques got the win. Rodriquez has power and massive 1st round finish potential. All eleven of his victories have come without a judge’s decision. The 5.19 significant strikes landed per minute and 59% strike accuracy is a big reason for the striking favoring Rodriquez. Marques has an edge on the mat and will likely attempt to get this fight on the ground. I believe Rodriquez will be able to use his kicks to avoid getting taken down by Marques. I have Marques getting put to sleep by the hands of Rodriquez. 

Selection – Mike Rodriquez ($9,000) 1st round KO 

Honorable Mentions

Timur Valiev – ($9,300)

Molly McCann – ($8,500)

Manel Kape – ($7,900)

Seungwoo Choi – ($7,100)

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

Final Thoughts 

Thanks for reading my article UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov breakdown. It has been a crazy week of alterations to the card and that could continue. With COVID impacting many fights we could see some cancellations or changes prior to Saturday yet. Jump into Discord Chat where we keep you updated on all incoming news and the best ways to adjust. Myself and other Win Daily staff members will be in Discord tomorrow after weigh ins and Saturday up until lock. Feel free to ask me about my selections because I do make a prediction for each fight. All thoughts are based off my own film study and stats that I evaluate. It may come as a surprise but I don’t think that Stamann (largest betting favorite) is a gimmie to win. Askar does have some solid striking ability if he can avoid the wrestling of Stamann. Next week is exciting with the Welterweight belt on the line as Kamaru Usman faces Gilbert Burns to dictate who takes home the gold! 

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UFC Vegas 17: JT’s Sleeping Beauties

Win Daily Sports very own JT is breaking down his three favorite underdogs for UFC Vegas 17. Feeding off of his article where he gave everyone three favorites to win, he is going to give you three sleepers that will make your DFS lineup into a beautiful winning day. Here is the UFC Vegas 17: JT’s Sleeping Beauties.

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Be on the lookout for more MMA content from JT and others in the Win Daily Sports Family, videos, podcasts, and article for the breakdown of UFC Vegas 17. Make sure to also hop in our Expert Discord Chat where we’ll discuss plays further and help you construct the best possible lineup for FanDuel and DraftKings!

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UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown

The Win Daily Sports Family has you covered for UFC 256 with our Podcast Breakdown! Check out the podcast and notes below for your full breakdown of each fight. Make sure to check out our other UFC 256 Breakdown by Mitchell where he looks at his 3 favorite fights that he thinks will end early. Get ready for our UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Sports Show and leave a 5 star review!

UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown Notes

Chase Hooper vs Peter Barrett

  • Chase Hooper is a rising star that the UFC wanted to devote a lot of time and attention to until he lost his last fight and other stars sucked up all the spotlight (Holland, O’Malley, Chimaev)
  • Chase Hooper is really young and a lot of aspects of his game are simply unpolished and I do think he will have a long tenure in the UFC and he will tighten up his game as his fight career progresses
  • Luckily for Hooper they’re feeding him straight baby food, this fight shouldn’t be competitive and the line reflects that, but Hoopers weak striking could make it closer than it should be if it stays on the feet
    • That being said Hooper does have a chin so he can take some punishment if it takes him a bit to transition the fight to the ground
    • From Peter Barrett’s past fights its clear that he doesn’t have a UFC calibre ground game, once the fight gets on the ground Barrett will be less than useless
  • Barrett sucks, don’t even like him as a cheap play, FanDuel has him at $8 for a reason, we’ll get to the other $8 fighter in a moment because I have some thoughts
    • My hot take, hes only in the UFC because Dana likes guys from Boston, he actually said so when signing him from the contender series

Tecia Torres vs Sam Hughes

  • Not going to be a competitive fight in the slightest
  • Despite the record disparity, Tecia has a long list of UFC fights and her losses are came up against some of the toughest women in the strawweight division (4/5 were strawweight champions, one of which currently is)
  • This is like a college football player covering Tyreek Hill and FanDuel still thinks Sam Hughes has a better shot than Peter Barrett at $10
  • Tecia Torres is an excellent fighter to lock in at $15, only issue is she’s had 16 fights and only one has not gone to the judges, Sam Hughes actually has more finishes, looking at the disparity in skill on this one I can actually see Tecia Torres winning the fight. The question is less about if she will win and more about how she will win.
  • I think Tecia got really luck not to fight against Angela Hill, that could’ve easily sent Tecia down the rankings or out of the promotion altogether. Although Tecia did beat Hill in 2015, Hill is a different fighter and would’ve put a beatdown on Tecia for three whole rounds
  • I am also of the belief that Iron sharpens Iron and Torres rolls with one of if not the best female fighters of all time Amanda Nunes, in her prime at American Top Team
  • Sam Hughes first three fights were against fighters with 0-0 records, the three opponents combined total one fight after fighting Sam with 0 wins. Not necessarily fighting the cream of the crop

Billy Quarantillo vs Gavin Tucker

  • True Pick-em fight
  • Quarantillo with the natural advantage in reach and height
  • Differences in the two UFC Records is negligible
  • Neither a bad decision here
  • Quarantillo does eat a bit too much damage but has a strong ability to utilize the counterpunch
  • I’m taking Quarantillo based on my assumption is that this fight goes the distance as well, but there is value on both sides of this fight and if Tucker can come out of the gate strong I can easily see him taking control
  • If you’re making more than one lineup, have shares of both of these fighters

Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba

  • Dern has next level submission skill, in her last fight against Randa Markos, a talented grappler in her own right, she dominated on the ground and Markos still got caught despite doing everything possible to escape the hold, Dern is just that textbook
  • Their records are very deceptive as Dern’s strength of schedule was on a different level when compared to Jandiroba. Dern is 5-1 in the UFC and Jandiroba is 2-1.
    • Jandiroba’s loss came to a top form Carla Esparza on short notice and Dern’s loss came to one of the best UFC women’s prospects in Amanda Ribas in Dern’s first fight after coming back from Maternity leave (year and a half off)
  • I haven’t seen enough in Jandiroba’s fights to prove to me that she will be able to handle the advanced Jiu-Jitsu acumen of Mackenzie Dern
    • Both these fighters are seasoned Jiu-Jitsu practioners but Dern has the more refined game and has way more weapons available looking at her finishes (Armbar, Kneebar, Omoplata, Rear Naked Choke)
  • These are the kinds of fights however that are difficult to shoehorn into a DFS line, there are better options are more reasonable prices
    • Plus this has the feeling of a bad chalk play

Cub Swanson vs Daniel Pineda

  • Pineda coming off a strong win off of what looked like a compromised Herbert Burns, this was not a full form Burns as he missed weight and was coming off a relatively quick 2-month turnaround (Burns was on his way to building a hype train before he got mauled)
  • That being said, Pineda is a very well-rounded fighter and a BJJ Star
    • Survived having his back taken by Herbert Burns
    • Pineda has paid his dues in the regional scene after leaving the UFC and has had stellar performances against top talent, now it looks like hes polished and ready for the comeback
    • Id give Pineda a 9-fight, should’ve won stream (2 times popped for weed, 1 garbage Doctor’s stoppage)
  • Cub Swanson has great power in his hands that can change the makeup of a fight but that being said
    • Swanson had a great UFC career but at this point he has lost 5 of his last 6 fights
    • He hasn’t fought in over a year
    • Swanson looked good in his last win, a decision in 2019, against a guy with questionable defence and only 5 fights
    • This appears to be one of those fights that Dana set up to cut the fat off the UFC roster
      • Cub will need to make something very special happen if he’s intent on staying in the UFC after we saw cuts from the likes of Garragori, Wyman and Romero
      • Dana said they’re looking to make 60 cuts to the UFC roster
  • If this fight ends up on the ground it will be a quick night at the office for Pineda, for that reason along with the ability to stand and bang with Swanson if necessary and his very affordable price, I’ll be locking him into my lineups for Saturday night
    • Excellent DFS upside on Pineda, affordable at $16 and he hasn’t had a fight go to a decision since his last real loss in 2016 (which was split)
    • For betting I’d take this fight to not go the distance, these guys don’t have boring fights 

Junior Dos Santos vs Ciryl Gane

  • I have a lot of respect for JDS but it didn’t look like the matchmakers did after booking this fight. My god what a mismatch
  • Dana is clearly trying to push JDS out the door after being on a three fight decline while age is becoming more and more of a factor
    • This is a clear knockout waiting to happen and as we saw with the likes of Anderson Silva and Shogun Rua, Dana really wants to give the old garde a swansong before booting them out the door. Didn’t really work when Dana tried it with Glover Teixeira
    • Remember that Dana talked about 60 cuts to the roster
  • Ciryl Gane is a huge undefeated prospect in all MMA disciplines and is 3-0 in the UFC and 13-0 in all MMA disciplines (incl. his kick boxing record)
  • Ciryl moves like a middleweight and is very precise on his punches, already facing some real names in the UFC in Tanner Boser and Raphael Pessosa (when he submitted a talented grappler)
  • Cigano needs a lucky flash knockout, literally his only hope, I don’t see it happening

Kevin Holland vs Ronald Souza

  • By far my favourite fight on the card as a fan
  • Kevin Holland is an entertaining fighter who’s stock as risen like crazy in 2020 with 4 wins in a calendar year and can make it five with a win over Jacare tomorrow
  • Very close matchup and even though I lean Holland, I will have shares of both
  • Souza is fighting on short notice as Holland was supposed to fight Hermansson until the fight was called off with the replacement being announced on November 30th
    • The fight was cancelled due to Holland’s positive COVID test and that is of note
    • Jacare (41 yrs) is on the back end of his UFC career while Holland (28 yrs) is on the come up
  • Two storylines for this fight: Holland KO or Jacare Sub, all depends on where this fight ends up
    • If Holland can stuff Jacare’s takedowns this will be Holland’s night to extend the hype train (Darren Stewart and Brendan Allen both took Holland down)
      • Holland stuff around 50% of takedown attempts and Jacare gets about 25% of his takedown attempts
    • Jacare was a live dog and the money that came in pushed him up to the favourite
  • Holland’s decision making is sub par, which makes for entertaining fights as a fan but it can be concerning from a betting perspective because it leaves exposes him when fighting top competition
    • For Holland bettors you’ll hope he has a composed approach to this fight as he’ll tighten up his game for a run at the rankings
  • I’m on Holland, this will be the fight to watch in my opinion

Renato Moicano vs Rafael Fiziev

  • I’ve honestly gone back and forth a ton on this fight
  • Both look very appealing, from a DFS perspective the value on Moicano is the way to go but Fiziev is a top prospect and has serious knockout power
  • Moicano can throw hands too and is also a dangerous submission threat with a strong BJJ Advantage
  • Moicano has faced the strong competition but his fight pace is a little concerning and he takes a while to heat up
  • The longer the fight goes on, the longer I like Moicano
  • I haven’t seen any convincing stuff from Fiziev on the ground
  • But Moicano’s chin is of concern and the faster he can get this fight on the ground the better

Tony Ferguson vs Charles Olivera

  • El Cucuy is back after a heartbreaking loss to Justin Gaethje which robbed UFC fans of the opportunity of finally seeing the continually cancelled Tony vs Khabib. Ferguson was able to show off his granite chin as he lost while he was out on his feet and had no intention of getting KO’d to Gaethje’s heavy hands
    • Ferguson had the short notice fight change after Khabib couldn’t get a visa and had to completely change the style he was competing against (Khabib the Grappler and Gaethje the power puncher)
  • Olivera is in his prime at 31 years of age and is on a 7-fight win streak
    • 6/7 fights Olivera was the favourite, and in the one that he wasn’t the line was extremely close
    • Nobody on Tony’s level
    • This is Olivera largest underdog fight in over three years but despite that the line is still rather close
  • Tony will need a win in order to stay in the conversation for top lightweight contenders
  • Olivera is the heavy submission threat with superior BJJ skill but in my eyes this fight ends on the feet with a Tony KO
    • Tony could come in completely cracked after the fight with Gaethje and I’m concerned that this could be a Rousey v Nunes situation
  • Winner of this fight could see themselves getting a lightweight title shot (per Dana White)

Deyverson Figueredo vs Brandon Moreno

  • Both fighters are on quick turnarounds from UFC 255 a few weeks ago
    • The two fights were first-round fights with Figueredo finding the guillotine early on and Moreno winning with a ground and pound after Royval’s shoulder popped out
  • The line on this fight isn’t close and Figueredo’s heavy hands will end Moreno’s five fight unbeaten
  • I think Moreno might have the edge in every aspect
  • For DFS tourney purposes, you’d usually want to take a fighter on the main event as the five round output on strikes alone is often necessary for a top score, so this is the fight you’ll want to glean from

UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown: Wrap-Up

  • All around solid card, not my favourite but some intriguing fights which appeal to me as a bettor and as a fan
  • I do think we’ll see Dana make some cuts soon after the card and I think some big names may be surprised to get their walking papers

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UFC Vegas 16 Video/Podcast Breakdown

We’re bringing you a video/podcast breakdown for the UFC Vegas 16 Card this weekend! Make sure to check out our written article on the site, too!


Main Card

Hermansson vs Vettori– The Main Event! Vettori is the younger fighter who is in his prime. Vettori is an excellent striker who can come at you in multiple ways. He is so quick on the feet and is a cardio machine. Hermansson is an amazing grappler and wrestler that you don’t want to mess with. He can submit anyone and everyone. If this comes down to grappling then I am giving the huge edge to Hermansson. If this is based on striking then it is for sure Vettori if he can defend the takedown which he is good at. This fight is close to me and I am giving the slight edge to Vettori based on the prime of his but Hermansson could certainly submit him. 

OSP vs Hill– The CO-Main Event! OSP is the more experienced fighter facing the young prospect from DWCS in Hill. OSP is an underrated fighter and tough as nails with submission skills. Hill is an active fighter on the feet and quick as can be. I am liking the grappling in OSP for sure who is ready for this fight more so than Hill. I don’t think Hill will see what is coming from OSP. Hill isn’t on the level where OSP is. Give me OSP doing the OSP signature submission! 

De la Rosa vs Santos– Female fight and here we go! Santos has an mixed of great fighting techniques in grappling plus striking. De la Rosa is an young fighter and is a tough fighter that will try to hang in this fight but she isn’t ready for this fight to be honest. De la Rosa will able to do whatever in this fight and don’t see how she can lose this fight with her grappling. 

Dolidze vs Allan– Allan will look to get in Dolidze face and has decent power for sure. Dolodze is an heavy striker and is getting better at takedowns. Allan will want to take him down which we will see Dolidze defend it at an great pace. I like Dolidze is the more polished fighter! 

Landwehr vs Evloev– This is an interesting fight by far. Landwehr was in a bloody fight with Elkins where he looked okay to me. Landwehr hands are slow but the grappling was decent based on his strength. Evloev is an legit prospect that I like. His hands are great and will outdo Landwehr. Evloev should be able to get Landwehr to the mat with his amazing takedown technique. Give me Evloev to handle this fight! 


Villante vs Collier– Jake Collier is still so overweight like wow, rumors are he is more in shape but based on last fight he was overweight by far. Villante looked decent last fight and just got caught in an bad submission. Villante should win this fight and his striking has looked great. The power is in his hands have looked great and I am all in on the more cut guy in Villante. 

Wiman vs Leavitt– Wiman man oh man….what has he become. Wiman USED to be an hell of an fighter but the guy is washed up to be honest. He is 37 years old and I can’t get to him at all based on recent form. I just can’t get to him. Leavitt is an nasty submission artist that I like a ton. This guy is an excellent fighter on the mat and fight IQ is so high. He is fresh on his feet and smooth on the mat. I like Leavitt a ton and this is his fight to win by far. 

Flick vs Durden– Both guys are trying to gain credit in the UFC so this fight will be good! Flick is a submission machine and that is what he is good at. Flick will want you on the mat and that is his goal. Durden will also want the fight on the mat so that will be where this fight takes place. Durden is also an boxer so Flick will need to watch out for that. The odds don’t show this fight close but to be honest it is. To me this is an 50/50 fight. 

Topuria vs Jackson– Topuria is an young fighter who is on the rise by far. He beat Zalal and grappled him a ton. Topuria grappling is underrated to be honest while the hands are quick. Topuria has the making of being an great fighter down the road and a guy I am high on. Jackson is the older fighter coming into this fight. Jackson is also an grappler and looking great in recent fights. He is an cardio machine and can hang in the later rounds. I am all in on the younger fighter in Topuria! 

Benitez vs Jaynes– Justin Jaynes! Check out the interview of him on my youtube channel but anyways here we go! This fight is gonna be explosive. Benitez is a sneaky fighter and can take down fighters, that’s his key. Benitez is confident. Jaynes on the other hand has great hands and powerful fighter. Jaynes is ready for this fight and the gassing out won’t be there while Benitez will be quick on the mat. If Jaynes can clip him with a powerful punch then this is his fight to win. Jaynes is gonna hang with Benitez and I am taking the boy in Jaynes. 

Smolka vs Quinonez– First fight of the night and here we go! This fight is close and Quinonez is an heck of an fighter. Quinonez is an heavy striker and has fought great fighters in his resume. Smolka is overrated to me based on his fight history plus the weight cutting issues he had last fight. Smolka is such an boom/bust option that is hard to trust to me. Quinonez should be able to clip him and earn an knockout win. 

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