We only have five games on the main slate tonight as Thursday is a travel day for quite a few teams but there are some quality pitchers on the slate. There are two pitchers that are priced like an ace and another that can put out an ace-level score. Let’s get rolling in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9 and figure out who we’re chasing to lead the charge to green screens!
Cole just keeps on trucking along through this season and he’s down to a 2.78 ERA, a 2.58 FIP, and a 2.60 xFIP over the course of 64.2 innings. His K rate has climbed up to 31.5% after not striking out a lot of hitters toward the stat of the year and the swinging-strike rate remains extremely high at 15.5%. Over the past 30 days, the Twins lineup has struck out at a 24.2% rate and that is the sixth-highest mark in the majors but this spot is not without risk. During that span, they are also fourth in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in addition to eighth in ISO. They are also 10th against the fastball which could cause some issues since Cole is using that pitch 49% of the time (it does have 46 strikeouts so it’s not the normal fastball). He does see a bump in K rate when facing a lefty at 35.1% but righties are only at a .296 wOBA and 28.8% K rate. I feel like Cole is going to give up a bomb or two, but he’ll land between 8-10 strikeouts and still be worth the salary tonight.
Fried is one of those pitchers that I want to catch in the right spot and the Pirates do check that box. While they can be pesky, they have a young offense as a whole and Fried can take advantage of that fact. Pittsburgh is 28th in OBP, 21st in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+, and they carry a 23.9% K rate. They do rise to 15th in ISO but Fried has a 0.65 HR/9 and a 52.5% ground ball rate so he’s equipped to neutralize that aspect of the Pittsburgh offense. Fried also has a K rate over 22% and he’s holding righties to a .278 wOBA with a 1.09 WHIP. The changeup still isn’t a big piece of the arsenal but he’s thrown it at a 12.5% rate so far this year and it has a 36.8% whiff rate to go with his curve at a 40.7% whiff rate. Fried can throw any of his five pitches at any time and keeps hitters off-balance, and should be worth the salary against a vulnerable offense tonight.
This salary almost feels like a trap because we know the upside that Ohtani has, although it is fair to point out that his floor is low as well. Ohtani has been unlucky if the xFIP is telling the truth because it’s only 2.70 compared to a 3.99 ERA but the fly-ball rate has risen to 42.5%. When we combine that with a HR/FB rate of almost 16%, that gets him to the eight home runs he’s allowed and his barrel rate is almost 11%. Despite some of the issues that Ohtani has had this season, his K rate has never been higher at 33% and his walk rate has never been lower than the 5.6% mark he has right now. Even the swinging-strike rate is as high as it’s ever been at 15.1% so the ability to miss bats is elite. Everything but the four-seam has a whiff rate over 42% and that splitter is still the lead pitch in strikeouts at 23. We’ll hope for plenty of righties as he has a .261 wOBA, 2.28 xFIP, and a 37.6% K rate when facing that side but the bottom line is we don’t get Ohtani cheaper, regardless of opponent.
I can’t help but think Pivetta is going to get waxed at some point because I don’t think he’s as good as he’s pitched so far, even though a 4.00 xFIP isn’t utterly terrible. However, if he draws the Angels lineup that Eovaldi got last night, it’s a different story. Mike Trout was out and he joined Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon as missing from the lineup and that particular version had a cumulative K rate of over 27%. Pivetta has worked himself to a 23.3% K rate and he’s under a 0.90 HR/9, so his quality
has been solid through 60+ innings. Both sides of the plate are under .300 for the wOBA and the more righties might be better. The wOBA and WHIP are higher, but the xFIP is almost a full run lower and the K rate goes up to 26%. His slider/four-seam combo has really done well for him with the slider having the best whiff rate of the arsenal at 31.9% and the four-seam having 24 strikeouts. His curve is dead even to both sides at 135 each and that pitch has 21 so it’s a balanced attack from Pivetta. Let’s see what kind of lineup Pivetta gets tonight.
This is what we wrote yesterday before the Guardians pushed him back one day –
This is a dangerous play since Pilkington has no real track record to speak of but he’s so cheap for a 29.1% K rate that we have to consider him. Now, the walk rate is sky-high at 12.7% and his fly-ball rate is over 41% but the hard-hit rate is only 23.9% and Pilkington has a 15.3% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers would command a much higher salary if they were consistent and he’s held righties to a .290 wOBA with a 2.19 FIP. His changeup and slider both have generated a whiff rate over 44% and Texas is 19th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA, and 21st in OPS over the past 30 days against lefty pitching. They still have plenty of power as they rank in the top 10 in ISO in that span but Pilkington has yet to allow a home run, so there is plenty to like about him even with warts.
This matchup might actually be even better for him since the A’s have a higher K rate at 23.6% and they are no higher than 22nd in any category.
Orioles
Guardians
Royals
Braves
Yankees
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight’s slate is a 10-gamer that provides more pitching options than hitting options. That said, there are some intriguing spots that we should be able to attack.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
The Athletics will be turning the ball over to 28-year-old rookie Jared Koenig. Koenig will be making his major league debut after traveling around independent ball and then playing the A’s system for the last couple of years. Koenig has pitched fairly well in Las Vegas this season, but pitching in AAA and pitching in the Majors are 2 very different things.
Your Braves stack would need to start with Ronald Acuna. He’s extremely expensive tonight but he’s zoned in right now. After hitting 2 homers last night, he now has 3 in his last 2 games. Over the last 30 days, he has a .459 wOBA vs. lefties and a 50% hard-hit rate. With him being locked in and in a good matchup, I’m willing to overlook the massive price he has tonight.
Next up would be Austin Riley. He’s coming into this game a little on the cold side, but he’s been absolutely great against lefties over the last month. Since early May, Riley has had a .394 ISO against southpaws and a nearly 70% hard-hit rate. This is a great get right spot for him tonight.
Should Adam Duvall miss tonight’s game, I’ll look to also add Guillermo Heredia to this stack for some value. He showed a little pop last night with a homer and is almost min-priced at just $2.1k on DK. He’ll make paying up for Acuna a little easier. Other guys I like here are going to be Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna.
Through his first 10 starts this season, Chris Archer has had the luxury of facing teams like Tigers, Athletics, Orioles, and Rays a combined 7 times. Even in his other starts, he faced a struggling Dodgers lineup early in the year and a White Sox team that is much worse against righties. Tonight will be one of his first true tests this year, and it’s going to go very poorly. Even though Archer has faced some inferior bats, he still has the highest xFIP of any pitcher on the board tonight over the past month. With a 40% flyball rate and an 82% contact rate, he’s putting way too many balls in the air right now and against a team like the Yankees, that’s a recipe for disaster.
At $6.3k on DK tonight, Aaron Judge is going to eat up a large chunk of your salary cap. I’m ok with that because the man is just the best hitter in the game. With every swing of the bat, he has the chance to put it over the fence. Against a flyball pitcher like Archer, that just enhances the odds. He’s a lock in my Yankees stack as I won’t overthink this one.
Next up will be DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu more than likely won’t get you a homer tonight, but he’ll get on base in front of Judge and will score when he homers. LeMahieu is in a nice stretch of baseball right now where he’s hit safely in 6 of 8, including a 3-hit game last night. In a matchup with Archer tonight, his good hitting should continue.
My next important piece here will be Anthony Rizzo. With his homer last night, he’s now up to 14 on the season. He’s homered in 3 of his last 4 games and has scored at least 12 DK in points in four straight. This is a great spot for him. Other guys I like here are going to be Giancarlo Stanton, Kiner-Falefa, and Higashioka.
The old reliable Jordan Lyles appears to be returning to form. That is the form that made stacking against him so much fun. He now has 3 straight games giving up multiple barrels, and he has allowed at least 3 runs to score in each of those games. If we look at his splits over the past month, we can see that he’s had a lot more success against lefties than righties. His K rate is higher, he’s giving up less hard contact to them, and fewer fly balls. The problem for him though is this, he’s only going to face 3 lefties tonight. This lineup packed with righties tonight can give him fits.
I”m starting this stack off with leadoff hitter Christopher Morel. Morel led off last night’s game with a homer and very well could do it again tonight. Over the past month, he has a .377 wOBA vs. righties. He’s also coming into this matchup with hits in 17 of his last 18 games. He’s dialed in and should smash tonight.
Next up will be Patrick Wisdom. Wisdom is a little bit more boom or bust than Morel, but he’s also been really good against righties. Over the last month, he has a .268 ISO against them. He’s always a homer threat, especially against a pitcher that is susceptible to the home run ball.
Other bats I like here will be Wilson Contrares, Frank Schwindel, and Ian Happ.
Other places for bats i like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Reid Detmers, Rangers vs. Konnor Pilkington, and Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Last night was highly annoying between weather and delays and everything else Mother Nature could throw at us but we’re going to have a ton of options tonight. There are a lot of high salaries to deal with and it’s a very crowded slate. We have a lot to get through today so let’s get right to work in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/7 to find green screens!
It has been tough sledding for Rodon in his past four starts as he’s totaled 20 IP, 17 strikeouts, and a 6.30 ERA. He’s also had nine walks and his ERA is up to 3.44 and the xFIP is 3.30, so I can’t make the case these past four starts have been terribly unlucky. However, things aren’t all bad for Rodon. His FIP is still just 2.50, the K rate is still over 30%, and the swinging-strike rate is still 13.3% which would be the second-highest mark of his career. To my eye and what the stats would say is he’s using the four-seam too much. Rodon has bumped it up to 65.5% this season from 58.7% last year and I’m not sure why. It has allowed a .306 wOBA with a 24.6% whiff rate and his slider is still at a 40% whiff rate. The changeup has practically been abandoned under 6% and teams I believe are learning to just sit on the four-seam. The reflex is he gets to face the Rockies on the road but that’s a mixed bag when they have seen a lefty so far. They are only 20th in ISO in that scenario but they also rank fifth in OPS, OBP, and they are in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ as well. I’m not sold on the past fur starts as anything more than a bump in the road for Rodon, but this isn’t the layup it has been in the past few seasons.
Oakland has been a punching bag for us all season and that trend should continue tonight with Wright. His profile is excellent with a 2.41 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, ground ball rate approaching 53%, and a swinging-strike rate of 12.1%. His curveball and change get the best whiff rates at 34.8% and 32.3% each and they have 41 strikeouts combined. Oakland is 26th when facing curveballs and that’s the primary pitch for Wright, which should lead to a positive game from him. It also doesn’t hurt that the A’s are 29th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and they fall to 30th in OBP to go along with their K rate of 24.2%. Wright hasn’t shown any major splits to this point as both sides of the plate are right about a .260 wOBA and the only issues that could bite him at some point is the 4.33 xFIP when facing lefties. Oakland doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to exploit that angle and among the high end, Wright has the easiest matchup on paper.
I would hope that he gets the same draw for the Royals lineup that they played last night with only three lefties because that would fit the strengths of Manoah perfectly. We’ve talked about this all year but I’m always more excited for Manoah if he’s getting a lot of righties because he’s just so much better against that side. They only have a .162 wOBA, 0.46 WHIP, 2.05 FIP, and a 31.4% K rate compared to a 15% K rate when facing lefties. His best whiff pitch is the slider and it is used more against the right side of the plate, actually edging out the four-seam for the lead pitch at 184 to 183. It has a 33.8% whiff rate and it really plays off his four-seam and sinker well, garnering 26 strikeouts (the four-seam has 28). The Royals are in the bottom six in wOBA and wRC+ which is helpful and since the Royals fired their hitting coach on May 17th, the K rate when facing righties has gone up to 22.1% while the ISO has stayed at 18th. I just want to get eyes on the lineup but Manoah should be in a fantastic spot tonight.
By basically any metric, Skubal has arrived as a frontline pitcher with a 2.15 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 0.31 HR/9, and a 27% K rate to go with a 4.4% walk rate, 4.5% barrel rate, and an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. Those are ace-caliber numbers and he may never be $6,000 again but he shouldn’t be either. One of the best things he ever did last season was stopping throwing a cutter and splitter and he hasn’t looked back with four out of five pitches sporting a whiff rate over 23%. He doesn’t throw any pitch more than his slider at 29.8% but the four-seam is right behind at 28% and the strikeouts are pretty evenly spread out. The Pirates won’t want to put many lefties in the lineup as Skubal has held that side to a .151 wOBA and a 1.66 xFIP, but righties only have a 3.05 xFIP and .262 wOBA so it’s not like they’re finding success. Pittsburgh does have a little bit more pop than you’d think against lefties at 13th in ISO but they are also 19th in wOBA and 22nd in wRC+. This isn’t a matchup that worries me with Skull’s skillset and I’m hoping the field largely ignores him, but that is just a hope.
Honorable Mention
Conspicuous by his absence was Justin Verlander and it somewhat boils down to simply not wanting to pay top dollar for him on this slate. I mean, do we need to? There are a bunch of other players just in his tier that could match him and this will be the fourth time he’s faced Seattle. He’s struck out 17 in 20 IP and he got touched up in the last start with four runs allowed and six strikeouts. His K rate is 25.3% and the xFIP is over a run higher than the ERA so I don’t need to spend all the way up, but you can if you choose to.
Jameson Taillon is red hot through his last three starts with 23 IP, two earned runs, 17 strikeouts, and one walk allowed. I think that’s awesome but it also illustrates why I’ve been lower on him through the season and it’s the strikeouts or lack thereof for his salary. When a pitcher is $9,500, I want a K rate over 20% at a minimum, and Taillon doesn’t have it at 19.2%. That may seem like a quibble but you need him to go seven innings without giving up any production, be it hits, walks, or runs. This would be a good time to mention that his 2.30 ERA is a ways off his 3.68 xFIP and his HR/FB% right now is 5.8% compared to 12.1% last season. The swinging-strike rate is only 10% and that’s the lowest mark he’s had since 2917 when he was still a Pirate. He doesn’t have a single pitch that has 20 strikeouts yet and the Twins are top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, OPS, and they only strike out 21.7% of the time. It’s really not the best spot but he’s in a groove, admittedly.
I don’t believe I’m playing anyone in this range tonight. Yu Darvish could surprise but I continue to be concerned with his lack of strikeouts at just 19.8% and the 10.6% swinging-strike rate has never been lower for him. The Mets aren’t a strikeout team with the fifth-lowest rate in the majors when facing a righty so it’s not the easiest path to any upside for Darvish tonight, although he’s going to have good starts now and again.
I could sort of see Ranger Suarez popping up for a nice game but the xFIP is 4.20 and the K rate is down to 19.4%. His run of being pretty good as a starter in 2021 seems further away each day but you’re hoping here that his 23.2% hard-hit rate and 51% groundball rate win the day. Milwaukee is 28th in wRC+, 23d in wOBA, 24th in OPS, and 27th in OBP. They also whiff 24.6% of the time and that is the fourth-most in the majors. The Brew Crew is also 13th against the changeup and that’s been a big issue for Suarez as it had a 40% whiff rate and .259 wOBA last year compared to 32.7% and .347 this season.
There are a whopping 13 pitchers that are $7,500 or less and that’s just another reason the mid-range isn’t that appealing. In fairness, I only want to play two of them but even still. It’ll be simple to use a punt hitter or two and pay up at Sp or use one of these punts. For Quintana, he’s been surprisingly good this year and I had expected he’d be a DFA candidate by this point of the season. In this house, we don’t penalize pitchers for poor starts against the Dodgers so his past start is of no consequence to me, nor the Cardinals one. What does catch my eye is the 16, 22, and 23 points he scored in three of the past five and that helps demonstrate some upside. Detroit has struggled mightily when facing lefty pitching this season at 22nd in OBP, 28th in OPS, dead last in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+. Their K rate isn’t that bad and we shouldn’t expect a ton for Quintana and his 19.5% K rate. I certainly have concerns about the 4.01 xFIP when it’s compared to a 2.32 ERA but the Tigers haven’t proven to be a major threat against lefties either. His four-seam/changeup/curve mix all have at least a 25.8% whiff rate and they have all but one of his strikeouts on the season. That’s a big boost since the Tigers are 30th versus the fastball and curve and just 28th against the changeup, making Quintana a strong SP2 choice on paper.
He’s been a popular pick in this article without paying off and he’s the Metallica (Ride The Lightning) pick here again. The strikeouts have been an issue in the past two starts with just four total through 12 innings, but the IP is a big deal as Whitlock has pitched six in both starts. His K rate as a starter is still 22.6% which is fine for $6,900 and the Angels lost their 12th straight game last night. In the last 14 days, they are 25th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, 24th in OBP, and 26th in OPS. Additionally, they are still whiffing 24.2% of the time and they can’t buy offense right now. They have to get right at some point but the loss of Anthony Rendon and Taylor Ward have hurt, to be sure. There are a lot of worries you don’t get the strikeouts again since Whitlock has only a 7.1% and 5.7% swinging-strike rate in the past two starts, but he’s in play with the LA offense being beyond ice cold.
Honorable Mention
The White Sox are coming around a little bit when facing righty pitching as over the past 30 days, they’re climbing out of the basement in our offensive categories. However, they still aren’t good and Mitch White does have a K rate over 25% through 20.2 IP. He got up to 78 pitches this past start so we could get 90 out of him and his 4.79 ERA doesn’t do the 3.84 xFIP justice. His hard-hit rate is only 30.4% and he’s so cheap, that I don’t mind using him as the Hail Mary option tonight.
Cubs
Yankees
Giants (LHH)
Astros
Blue Jays
Rays
Padres
Braves
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and that means we have a smaller slate to work with tonight. We have just 6 games on top with the main slate starting 20 minutes earlier than normal.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
The Cincinnati Reds get one of the best matchups of the day vs. a pitcher that is just a shell of his former self. Over the past 30 days, Madison Bumgarner has really been struggling. After skating by the first few weeks, regression has finally caught up to him. Over the past month, no pitcher on tonight’s slate has given up more hard contact than MadBum. And it’s not even close. MadBum is giving up a nearly 44% hard-hit rate while the next closest person is below 39%. He’s getting shelled and he’s facing a lineup tonight that has really been coming on strong.
MadBum has been giving up way more power to righties over the past 30 days so my core will be built around them. I’ll start with Tommy Pham. Pham, while expensive, is in a nice spot tonight. He’s coming off an extremely solid weekend that saw him get 5 hits, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Against lefties over the last month, he’s also been pretty good with a .348 wOBA and a .250 ISO.
Next up will be Kyle Farmer. Farmer has been light’s out vs. southpaws this year with a wOBA of .474 and has also shown some pop with a .756 slugging %. When in the right matchup, Farmer has been able to fill the stat sheet. Tonight’s one of those nights when he’s in the right matchup.
Other guys I’ll look to here will be Brandon Drury, Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson, and of course, Joey Votto.
Since mocking the Mets no-hitter on Twitter, Syndergaard has given up 12 runs in just 11 innings of work. Karma has apparently caught up to him. The once overpowering righty has one of the lowest K-rates of any pitcher on the mound today. His 16% K-rate in 2022 is significantly lower than his career average. In his first season back from TJ surgery, he just no longer has the overpowering stuff he used to. His fastball now sits at a very hittable 95 mph vs. the old 100 mph one pre-TJ surgery. Until he gets right, he’s someone that we should stack against, especially when a solid lineup like the Red Sox is in play.
My Red Sox stack will start with 2 lefties that come in at 2 very different price points, Rafael Devers and Frenchy Cordero. Both guys stand to have big nights. Devers is coming off a big game yesterday where he went 2 for 3 and had a homer. Against righties over the last month, he’s been extremely solid with a .463 wOBA and an ISO of .341.
With Frenchy Cordero, we’re getting someone in peak form right now. Over his last 3 games, Cordero has 3 hits, 2 extra-base hits, and 6 RBI. At just $3.2k on DK tonight, he provides us with some great value and a chance at some great production. Should Jarren Duran remain in the lineup tonight, he’ll also provide us with some great value as he’s only $2.6k. Other guys I’ll like in this stack will be J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts.
Anytime you stack against Daniel Lynch it’s a pretty high-risk stack. He’s got some nasty stuff and anytime out he possesses the ability to overpower his opponent. That said, he’s also still very young and often makes mistakes. Twice this season he’s surrendered at least 6 ER and a matchup with the Blue Jays could definitely lead to a third. With Lynch, we want to focus on righties. While he strikes them out at a higher rate, they also possess more power against him.
I’ll start my Blue Jays stack with Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero’s struggles seem to be behind him. Over the past week, he’s been back to the old powerful Guerrero. Since May 24, Guerrero has 5 homers and 8 RBI. In this matchup vs. a lefty, he should smash. Over the last month, his ISO is up to .231 vs. lefties. He’s back folks!
Next up would be Teoscar Hernandez. After a slow start, Hernandez has really come on strong of late. Until yesterday’s 0 for, he had hit safely in 9 straight and had at least 14 DK points in 4 of them. Against lefties over the last 2 seasons, Hernandez has a .464 wOBA vs. lefties and a .353 ISO. He should also do well tonight.
Other guys i like here are going to be George Springer, Santiago Espinal, and Alejandro Kirk. They all possess massive upside tonight.
We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather tonight, especially the game in Cincy. If that game plays without an issue, you could also go for a game stack.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
With the Yankees playing at 11:35 this Sunday, we don’t have to worry about them being chalk but the pitching is pretty interesting. There are two pitchers that are a clear step above the rest of the slate although at least one of them has some slight questions around him. Let’s get into those two and more in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/5 to see who’s leading the charge to green again!
Giolito gets the Rays matchup we’ve been chasing all weekend since they’re not healthy and have been so bad against righty pitching in the past two weeks and Giolito isn’t someone who will let them up off the ground. He has a change and a slider that both have whiff rates of at least 38% and the changeup has 22 strikeouts, matching the four-seam fastball. Tampa is 24th when facing the fastball and the changeup both, leaving a pathway wide open for Giolito. He’s due some regression to the 2.95 xFIP from his 3.61 EA and the K rate is 33.3% to go along with a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. Giolito has had some issues with the long ball this year with a 1.70 HR/9 but the Rays are only 18th in total homers so far this season. The wOBA against righties looks scary as all get out with a .405 mark but the BABIP is .383 and his xFIP is still only 3.53. A power threat like Randy Arozarena could make sense as a one-off from the right side but lefties have a 41.1% K rate, a 2.61 FIP, and a .249 wOBA. The Rays lineup currently doesn’t give me much pause when playing Giolito. I fully assume he’s going to be major chalk at his salary of just $9,600 on DK.
The big question for Gausman is the strikeouts because they have been far less reliable in the past five starts. He has hit eight strikeouts twice but he’s also had five, five, and three and those numbers don’t exactly cut it when you’re paying this salary. It hasn’t even been a strikeout per inning and I do wonder if some of that has been from maybe using the slider too much? That pitch is sort of a paradox. It generates a higher whiff rate at 50% than the splitter at 44.4% but it has just three strikeouts. In the two games that he hit eight strikeouts, Gausman threw the slider 5.7% and 3.1%. There could be a fine line between getting a whiff and still having his splitter be the putaway pitch with 49 strikeouts. Gausman is still getting a massive swinging-strike rate at 16.9% and his splits are dynamite as well. Neither side has an xFIP over 2.96 and righties are striking out 33.3% of the time. The BABIP is still ridiculous at .452 so I’m still very much into the idea of pitching Gausman, even with the strikeouts not being there as much lately. His salary could leave him less popular, presenting an opportunity in GPP.
It’s hard not to love Valdez in this spot as he’s pitched 7.2, seven, seven, and nine innings in his last four and has given up a total of six earned runs while striking out 24 hitters. Through the month of May alone, he held hitters to a 2.30 ERA, and a .251 wOBA, and the K rate has stayed stagnant at 19.5%. The Royals could help out that rate as in the last two weeks, they have whiffed over 25% when facing a lefty. They haven’t handled that side of the mound as over the entire course of the season, they rank 27th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and they are 24th in OBP. We’re not exactly banking on 10 strikeouts here and he doesn’t have a Hughe strikeout pitch since the curve is responsible for 27 strikeouts and a 34.4% whiff rate. Kansas City is only 13th when facing the curve this year and they’re in the top 10 in ground ball rate. That’s a big part of the puzzle since Valdez has a 65.7% ground ball rate and that helps him get deeper into the game. Neither side of the plate is over a .270 wOBA and it’s hard to see where the damage comes from when facing this Royal lineup.
I do believe that Gallen is a step below anyone else in this tier as he’s not made it to the sixth inning in the past three starts and the K rate is under 25%. Sure, Valdez is as well but he’s got a much better chance to go further into the game based on what we’ve seen this season. There’s also the fact that the 2.32 ERA doesn’t match the 3.63 xFIP although the rest of the profile looks pretty strong. Gallen has a hard-hit rate under 25%, the HR/9 is 0.54, and the ground ball rate is 48.5%. Pittsburgh is only 18th against the fastball and that is a boost for Gallen since he throws it 48.3% of the time and it has a .250 wOBA along with 22 strikeouts even with just a 16% whiff rate. His splits are a bit of a mixed bag since lefties have a .188 wOBA but just a 20.7% K rate while the righties have a 27.4% K rate but also a .291 wOBA. With Pittsburgh ranking 21st or lower in all of our offensive categories, Gallen shouldn’t be ignored as he might be in line for some strikeouts since the Bucs have a 24.9% K rate when facing a righty.
Honorable Mention
Eric Lauer is on the radar, but there are some “troubling” trends in his profile. So, Lauer kind of came out of nowhere, and in the first month or so, he whiffed 36.6% of the hitters he faced. That is a massive shift in his 22.4% career K rate and we’re talking nearly a 400 IP sample before the 2022 season started. In the month of May, the K rate went down to 23.5% and that made a whole lot more sense compared to where he’s always been at. Lauer still pitched well with a 2.96 ERA but the FIP/xFIP combo was at least 4.21with a HR/9 of 1.65 and I believe we can utilize some of the Padres offense before we’d look to pitch him.
I believe the star of this tier and possibly the cash SP2 is going to be Luis Castillo, hot off a start where he scored 35 DK against the Boston Red Sox. I always dislike chasing strikeouts for a pitcher facing the Nationals since they only whiff 20.5% of the time against righty pitching. However, this same lineup is 19th in wOBA and wRC+ and they are only 23rd in ISO. Castillo has a 30.4% whiff rate or higher on his change and four-seam (they have 22 of his 28 strikeouts) and the changeup is the clearest path to success since it’s his primary pitch and Washington is dead last against it. Castillo has also quietly pitched fairly well with a 50.7% ground ball rate, a 26.7% K rate, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 2.95. Lefties are not going to earn a .376 wOBA all season since they have a .345 BABIP, but a chalky (potentially) Castillo seems dangerous. He’s the one I feel most “comfortable” with as far as the metrics lead us but the gut doesn’t feel great about him.
At first glance, this isn’t the slate that I’m overly excited about anyone. Mike Clevinger is back and he pitched well in his last start before injury. However, a right triceps injury for a righty that is coming off a major arm surgery absolutely freaks me out at $8,800. The Brewers do have a higher K rate against righties at 23.8% but Clevinger and his 25.4% K rate seem like he could blow up in our face. Perhaps we’ll get some type of pitch count in the morning.
I was excited for Jakob Junis in the first month and thought maybe the Giants were onto something with him, but the month of May was not kind to him. The ERA jumped to 3.67, the wOBA went up 80 points to .289, and the FIP is 4.59. If that wasn’t enough, the Marlins are eighth when facing a slider and Junis is using that pitch right about 55% of the time.
There is a small chance I could turn to Kyle Gibson as a punt, but he has to draw the correct lineup. Last night, the Angels had five hitters that hit lefty and if that happens again, I’m out. Gibson has an 11.7% K rate and 5.08 xFIP when facing a lefty. However, his K rate when facing righties jumps up to 29.2%, the xFIP plummets to 2.21, and the Angels whiff at a top-three rate in baseball at 24.9%. The draw is paramount before we can even consider him.
Blue Jays
Giants
Reds
Angels LHH
D-Backs
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