Friday beings another massive 14-game slate with a set of pitching that has some good teams up at the top and then it tapers off significantly. The top guy tonight may be a surprise given some names but he is my clear favorite and finding other pitchers could be the challenge. Let’s figure out the main target up top and talk about who else we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/24!
Through the first 14 starts of the year, Nola is sixth n the league in total strikeouts at 99 and that has equated to a 28.7% K rate because only Sandy Alcantara has pitched more innings than the 89.2 that Nolas has thrown. The xFIp is 2.89 and the ground ball rate is over 45% so a lot of his profile really makes sense and we know he has upside as evidenced by his 31 DK points in the last start. The four-seam/curve/sinker is the man mix and the sinker has been impressive with 24 strikeouts on just a 9.8% whiff rate but the curve is the strike-out star with a 40.2% whiff rate and 39 strikeouts. San Diego is 25th against the curve this season and the status of Manny Machado is still up in the air. He’s yet to hit the IL but he also hasn’t played since a horrible-looking ankle sprain a few days ago. Even with Machado, the Padres are 20th in wOBA, 25th in ISO, and 19th in OPS to go along with a 22.2% K rate when facing righties. Each side of the plate has a K rate over 27.5% and Nola is going to be my main Ace tier pitcher tonight.
It’s the second straight very difficult matchup for Severino but he fared well until the very end against the Jays and this is another lineup that could set up well for his strengths. It also didn’t help that the bullpen allowed two runs against him so that changed his start drastically. There is no denying that Houston is the tougher matchup than the Padres and they rank fifth in OPS, third in ISO, fifth in wOBA and wRC+, and then they only strike out 20.4% of the time. The path for Severino to succeed is to avoid the lefties (a difficult task for any pitcher against Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley) because he’s been ridiculously good when facing a righty. Severino got nine Jays and his K rate when facing a righty is 37.5%, the xFIP is 2.54, and the wOBA is just .269. His changeup and slider both have whiff rates over 32% and they have combined for 53 strikeouts but he generally throws them more when facing a righty, especially the slider. He’s expensive but he can dominate the six righties he should face and make it worthwhile.
Normally, seeing four lefties or more is an avoid for Manoah because his splits can be difficult to work around. Lefties really are still giving him issues with a .315 wOBA, a 4.67 xFIP, and just a 15.2% K rate but Milwaukee is up to seventh in K rate against righties at 23.8%. and even though they have the fourth-highest ISO, Manoah does not allow a lot of home runs at just a 0.72 HR/9 even against the left side. When he sees a righty, the K rate jumps to 31% and the FIP is 2.00 and he can thank his slider with a 33.1% whiff rate and the wOBA is under .210. Manoah is in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate which is wildly impressive and he gets a swing-and-a-miss 11.4% of the time. Milwaukee is sixth against the slider so there are reasons it could be kind of a poor start for Manoah but I think he has a nice bounce-back.
Honorable Mention
To me, Justin Verlander is the clear third player here and at least in GPP, I will almost surely be underweight on him. Sure, it’s Verlander in a big game and he can still pitch extremely well but there are certainly some hangups here. Perhaps the largest one is the K rate dips under 24% against the right side of the plate and the wOBA is higher at .266. I believe both the other players have an easier path to pay off a five-figure salary and Verlander has been up and down in the last five starts.
Michael Kopech is another player I struggle with because he is capable of monster scores, having posted two 30-point games in the past five starts against the Yankees and Dodgers. His other three starts have combined for one exit after 13 pitches and a combined 5.2 DK n the other two. A big red flag is his 2.38 ERA continues to be way out of whack with the 4.54 xFIP. The fly-ball rate has climbed above 53% at this point as well and the xFIP is almost 5.00 when he’s pitching at home with a K rate that dips under 24%. He would be nothing more than a 20-max play for me with the range of outcomes he’s displayed.
Yesterday say lefty Justin Steele have some big success against this Bucco lineup until his defense helped extend his pitch count and he stayed in the game just a bit too long. Springs has over 20 DK point potential here with a 26.8% K rate, a 0.98 WHIP, a 42% ground ball rate, and a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. The xFIP is 3.25 but the FIP drops under 3.00 and the ERA is still just 2.00, the 54 innings pitched have been very successful. His changeup remains his best weapon with 31 strikeouts and a whiff rate over 37%, although the Pirates are 11th against it. It didn’t work out the last time for Springs but he’s been excellent against the right side of the plate with a .239 wOBA, a 0.43 HR/9, a 28.8% K rate, a 2.16 FIP, and a 2.87 xFIP. It is interesting to see a 2.31 HR/9 against the left side of the plate which opens up Oneil Cruz at lower ownership than we’ve seen him since the call-up. Even then, Springs has some strong upside here.
I suspect that Kelly could be the chalk SP2 on DK tonight, which is pretty understandable. We’ve been hammering the Tigers offense all season and even in the past two weeks, they’ve been in the bottom three of our offensive categories although the K rate has dropped to just 20.6%, a welcome shift for them. It helps that Kelly doesn’t see any major splits as even the left side is only at a 0.56 HR/9, a 19.7% K rate, and a 3.57 FIP with a .296 wOBA. He’s still mixing the pitches well with the four-seam being the most-used pitch at 30.8% although that does have a .349 wOBA allowed. Every other pitch is no higher than .317 and that’s the sinker, which is the least-used pitch. The change/cutter/curve mix makes up about 55% of the mix and the highest wOBA is .290 and Kelly has a 4.09 xFIP with a hard-hit rate of 29.7%. There is nothing spectacular with Kelly but he’s a crafty veteran pitcher that can get it done in this spot.
Honorable Mention
There is a small case for Dylan Bundy as he’s been way better at home results-wise with a 2.29 ERA but there are issues. The xFIP at home is higher than on the road, which would lead us to think some bad things are on the way for him. Both sides of the plate have at least a .324 wOBA and while Colorado is generally one of the worst offenses in the league on the road against righties, I’m not sure I have the guts to click on Bundy.
This does not appear to be the slate to dip into the punt range and don’t get this twisted, I’m not going all-in on Keller or pretending there isn’t risk. However, he’s been trending in a positive direction across the past seven starts with 33 IP, 26 K’s, 16 walks, and a 1.36 WHIP. Now, that’s not anything special but he’s under $7,000 and Tampa is fourth in K rate against the right side of the plate. They’re also 28th in OBP and wOBA, 27th in OBP, 19th in ISO, and just 20th in wRC+. The seasonal stats look pretty rough so you’re banking on the improvement as of late but even then, Keller has been better against the left side with a .318 wOBA, 4.16 FIP, and a 0.61 HR/9. This could all end horribly but he does open up some very interesting builds as well.
Let’s continue to get nuts and potentially capitalize on Garcia being due for some positive regression. His 4.97 ERA does not match up with a 3.47 xFIP and the 17.4% HR/FB rate is very high. That tends to be an issue when you’re giving up a 46% fly-ball rate and a 39% hard-hit rate but Garcia also has a 27.3% K rate. Arizona went through a spurt where they were hot but that’s faded over the past month as they’re back in the bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and the K rate is still 23.8%. There is still some massive risk because one area where the D-backs are still succeeding is ISO where they rank 13th but Garcia also has favorable splits when facing lefties. They only have a .278 wOBA, a .197 average, a 29.7% K rate, and a WHIP under 1.00. The curve has a 38.5% whiff rate and 19 strikeouts while the four-seam has 17 while Arizona is 27th against the curve. They do hit the fastball better at 15th but if you get the 18.5 DK that Garcia scored on the last slate, you’re going to be in great shape.
Nick Pivetta – Missed the Cut might be a bit harsh because he’s pitched extremely well this season and he could again. However, now we’re talking about Pivetta at just under $10,000 and I’m just still not buying it. Cleveland has the best K rate in baseball against righties at 17.9% and the xFIP against lefties for Pivetta is 4.54 with just a 22.7% K rate. I just don’t see how he’s paying off the salary now.
Cole Irvin – The K rate is just 16.5% and the xFIP is 4.35, which is not exactly what we’re looking for but the Royals can struggle pretty badly against lefties and he has a shot for 18 DK. I just normally don’t try and get behind these styles of pitchers because at least Keller and Garcia have more tangible upside.
White Sox
Cardinals
Twins
Rangers
Blue Jays
Nationals
Phillies
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Thursday and that means one thing, DAY BASEBALL! That’s right folks, we have a 6-game main slate today starting at noon est today. You’ll know before dinner time if you can got to Sizzler or not.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
After starting the year strongly, things have gotten progressively worse for Devin Smeltzer over the last month. Over his first 4 starts, Smeltzer gave up just 4 ER and 0 homers. He also struck out 12 while walking just 4. His last 3 starts have been polar opposites. He’s given up 12 runs in those while allowing 7 homers. Smeltzer has also walked 7 while striking out 7.
He’s seeming lost control and hitters have figured out how to hit him. With Smeltzer, we really want to attack him with righties. They have a significantly higher slugging % than lefties, .459 vs .310. They also have a much higher wOBA, .326 vs. .254. While the Guardians haven’t been overly hot, this is a solid matchup for them to breakout.
When you stack the Guardians, you start with Jose Ramirez and that’s exactly what I plan on doing today. Ramirez is off to a great start this season. He’s already up to 16 homers and 62 RBI. Over the last 30 days, he’s been really good against southpaws as he has a .440 wOBA and .241 ISO. Can JRam add to his home run total? There’s a great chance!
Next up will be Oscar Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been arguably the Guardians’ best hitter over the past week. Over his last 5 games, Gonzo has 2 homers, 6 RBI, and 5 runs scored. He’s basically been their offense and is extremely affordable on DK today at just $3.4k. The young kid has raked since getting called to the bigs and he’ll continue to rake in a solid matchup.
Other Guardians I’ll look to use today will be Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes, and Owen Miller.
The Cubs came through for us last night, and I think they’ll come through for us again today. Jose Quintana has really been struggling of late. In each of his last 3 starts, he’s given up at least 3 ER and multiple barrels. In his last 2 starts, he’s given up 5 homers. With him struggling right now, I’m going to load up on some Cubbies today.
With Quintana, we have someone that has very clear splits. He’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. They have just a .244 slugging % and .244 wOBA. Against righties though he really struggles. They have a slugging % nearly 200 points higher at .434 and a wOBA nearly 100 points higher at .330. When David Ross fills out his lineup card today, there’s a strong chance it’s filled with 9 righties. A nightmare scenario for Quintana as righties have been even better against him over the last 30 days. Their wOBA is up to .403 over the last month.
Even though Willson Contreras struggled last night, I plan on starting my Cubs stack with him today. Contreras is far better vs. lefties than righties. Over the last month, he has a massive .711 wOBA vs. lefties in 22 AB. On the year, 7 of his 12 homers have come against lefties even though he’s had triple the amount of AB vs. righties than lefties. Against lefties this year, his slugging % is up to .852. This is a smash spot for him this afternoon.
Next up will be Ian Happ. Happ is coming into this game swinging a hot stick. Over his last 22 AB, he has 8 hits and an OPS of 1.098. He’s been one of the Cubs’ best hitters all year and is in great form. Happ also possesses more power from the right side. As a righty this season, he has a slugging % of .540 and an OPS of .958. With how well he’s doing of late and the matchup, the $3.5k salary for him today on DK seems like a huge misprice. Let’s lock him in.
Other bats I’ll use from the Cubs today will be Christopher Morel and Patrick Wisdom.
In just 3 starts this season, Braxton Garret has pitched to an ERA of 4.85 and an xFIP of 4.56. He’s yet to have a game where he’s been absolutely blown away, but there’s a strong chance that happens today. While we normally like to use the Rockies at home, this is a good spot for them today. They’ve been one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching this season as they have a 110 wRC and an OPS of .797. They also have a pretty high wOBA of .348.
Braxton Garrett has very clear splits. Lefties have a slugging % of .471 and OBP of .410. That OBP is extremely high and indicates that he puts righties on base at a really high pace. The Rockies will more than likely have 7 righties in the lineup.
We’ll start this Rockies stack with CJ Cron. Cron has been a beast against lefties this season. He has a massive .575 slugging % vs. them in 2022. Garret’s going to throw Cron a ton of sinkers as he throws it about a third of the time vs. righties. Against lefty sinkers, Cron has a .435 wOBA and a .235 ISO. He should do extremely well in this matchup.
Next up will be Connor Joe. Leading off, Joe should be able to get on base today often. Away from Coors, Joe has an OBP over .400 against lefties. He’ll set the tone in this matchup and there’s a strong chance that when he’s on base today, CJ Cron will drive him home. Like Cron, Joe has great numbers vs. lefty sinkers.
Other Rockies I’ll want to include will be Yonathan Daza, Brendan Rodgers, and Randal Grichuck.
Other MLB DFS stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Hunter Greene, Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland, and Cardinals vs. Jason Alexander.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a big 13-game slate of MLB DFS. With it being a large slate of games, we have plenty of options to choose from.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
The Pirates have shown that they can put up some runs in the right environment. Last night they put up a 12-spot vs. a struggling pitcher in Caleb Kilian. They get just as juicy of a matchup going against Matt Swarmer tonight. Swarmer has really struggled so far in the big leagues. Through just 20 innings of work, he’s already surrendered 10 homers! He’s given up a 54% flyball rate and a 44% hard-hit rate. That’s a combo that’s going to cause you a lot of headaches and a lot of visits from the pitching coach. With Swarmer, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits as so far he’s been pretty bad against both sides of the plate.
We’ll start off this stack with the still min-priced Oneil Cruz. Cruz had a solid 2022 debut, going 2 for 5 with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. Last night he was 33% owned in most contests. I suspect after the debut that he had last night that he will be way more popular, but at this price and matchup, he’s the free square type of play that we’ll want to take advantage of. It’s a big enough slate that we’ll be able to differentiate ourselves in other ways.
Next up will be Jack Suwinski. Suwinski had another productive night at the plate last night, scoring both times he got on base. Over the last month, Suwinski has a .319 ISO and a .369 wOBA vs. righties. Swarmer is going to through a heavy dose of fastballs and sliders tonight. Although it’s a very small sample size, Suwinski so far has done well against sliders. He’s been hot at the plate, and he’ll continue to be hot tonight in a great matchup.
Other guys I like here will be Bryan Reynolds and Daniel Vogelbach.
The Cardinals take on one of my favorite pitchers in the game tonight, Chi Chi Gonzalez. Anytime that Gonzalez is on the hill, I make it a point to stack against him. More often than not, it’s been a successful strategy as the guy is just not a good pitcher. After just 2 starts for the Twins this season, they realized the error of the way and placed him on waivers. The Brewers, struggling with pitching depth decided to claim him and start him tonight vs. a lineup that is clicking on all cylinders. Over the last 2 seasons, Gonzalez has essentially been a reverse splits pitcher. Righties have a .430 wOBA vs. him, while showing some pop with a .323 ISO.
Any Cardinals stack right now needs to start with Paul Goldschmidt. He is currently on a heater. Over the last week, Goldy had 4 homers and 6 barrels. He also drove in 11 runs while scoring another 7. This is a matchup that Goldy should absolutely take advantage of. His price is up there at $5.4k on DK tonight, but we’ll have more than enough value with the Pirates to pay up for Goldy.
Next up will be Brendan Donovan. Although he’s tailed off a bit over the last couple of games, he had himself a solid last 7 games. Over the last week, Donovan had 12 hits in 31 AB. While the power hasn’t been there, he did combine for 14 runs and rbi. He’s been productive at the plate and that should continue tonight with a great matchup vs. Gonzalez.
Other Cardinal bats I really like are Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carson.
The Orioles have been playing some solid baseball recently. They are no longer the laughing stock of the league and have started beating some good teams. Today, they face a bad team and a bad pitcher and should do well. Over the last month, Erick Fedde has pitched to a 6.26 ERA. In his last 4 starts, teams have scored 34 runs.
With Fedde, you want to go either full-stack or no stack at all. He doesn’t give up many homers but he puts a ton of runners on base as he has a 1.74 WHIP over the last month. So you won’t be able to necessarily count on a random homer, you’ll want to count on runners getting on and then a base hit knocking them in. The Orioles are priced in a way tonight where going full-stack is very affordable. Only Austin Hays is over $4k on DK.
I’ll start my Orioles stack with their hottest hitter, Ryan Mountcastle. Over the last week, Mountcastle has 11 hits in 30 AB. 3 of those 11 hits have left the park and he’s combined for 15 runs and RBI. He’s also done very well against righties over the last month, with a .295 ISO. At just $3.9k tonight on DK, he’s very affordable and should be productive. Your decision here will be do you pay up at first and play Goldy or do you go with the value of Mountcastle?
Next up will be Adley Rutschman. The top prospect is starting to show off the bat that made him the first overall pick in the draft a few years ago. Over his last 4 games, he’s driven in 4 runs while garnering 5 hits. In there he also has a pair of doubles and a homer. He’ll look to continue with the momentum he’s been building as he gets more comfortable at the plate.
Other Orioles bats I like here will be Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, and Trey Mancini.
Other places I like for offense tonight will be the Royals vs. the lucky one Reid Detmers, Seattle Mariners vs. James Kaprielian, and the New York Mets vs. Jose Urquidy. Should Jordan Lyles start for the Orioles tonight, I would also like the Washington Nationals a ton. He’s been bad of late and the Josh Bell and Juan Soto would instantly become top bats.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
These are the kind of slates that we dream about because there are a ton of options for just nine games with a loaded Ace tier tonight. We also still get some intriguing options in the lower their and I’m very excited for some of these matchups. Let’s try and decipher which two pitchers we’ll need the most in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/20!
Cole does face Tampa for the second time in a row but this is a team that couldn’t hit the Baltimore bullpen yesterday and has been one of the worst offenses in baseball across the last 30 days, which basically coincided with the Wander Franco injury. The K rate in that span is 24.9% and Cole is at a 30.6% K rate, a 14.9% swinging-strike rate, and a 2.80 xFIP. Even though he can sometimes give up a long ball or two (or five), the hard-hit rate is 24.1% and when he’s on his game, he’s tough to beat. Tampa is also down to 22nd when facing a fastball and the slider, which is almost 70% of the arsenal for Cole. Those two pitches have 78 of 91 strikeouts for him on the season and they both have a whiff rate of at least 33.5% and the only real issue with the fastball is it has allowed five home runs. With Tampa sitting 23rd in ISO in the past month and the Rays have been lefty-heavy. That’s perfect for Cole with a .217 wOBA, 35.9% K rate, and a 0.79 WHIP so in my eyes, he’s deserving of the top salary on the slate.
It feels odd to see Burnes under $10,000 even though the production has been a little up-and-down lately. He’s taken over the lead in the swinging-strike rate at 16.4% and that bodes well for his 32.1% K rate to keep up. It’s a little funny to be critical of the production when the ERA is 2.52, the xFIP is 2.77, and the barrel rate is just 6.3%. A righty-heavy lineup like the Cardinals in theory is better for Burnes since he has a .258 wOBA against them and a 0.85 WHIP but even the lefties are only at a 2.31 xFIP and both are over 31% for the K rate. The cutter/curve mix is the main mix for Burnes and St. Louis is 13th when facing the cutter and 27th when facing the curve. Additionally, his slider has a whiff rate over 54% and that’s the secondary pitch against righties. I have him behind Cole as far as priority up top but really, the top three are very difficult to separate.
This is basically a carbon copy of five days ago on this side because he faced the Yanks and surrendered four runs, but only one was earned. Shane O’Mac got through six innings and only gave up three hits (two homers) and he struck out seven, totaling 22 DK points yet again. He’s still leading all qualified starters in 35.2% and the next closest is Dylan Cease at 32.9% while he has fallen to second in swinging-strike rate by 0.3% behind Burnes. His curve/change/slider mix continues to dominate and they all have at least a 33.9% whiff rate with the change/slider sitting at least at 43$. They have accumulated 79 of 105 strikeouts and the ERA of 1.84 matches up with the 2.13 xFIP. The ground ball rate remains over 48% and even with a 1.15 HR/9, the upside is palpable. He is third among the big three just based on the matchup with the Yankees, but you can make the accurate argument that he’s been the best pitcher in the majors this season.
Honorable Mention
The Giants are ninth in K rate against lefty pitching and that opens the door for Max Fried to have a bigger game and his K rate is up over 23% and the FIP is 2.80 to back up the 2.94 xFIP. Fried could also neutralize the high fly-ball rate of San Francisco’s offense since he generates a ground ball rate over 52% but on paper, he does not have the same upside as the big three tonight.
I will not likely stray from these three pitchers when I’m spending up but Jose Berrios seems to be finding his stride. As much as I may not be a huge fan, even I knew that he wasn’t as bad as he was pitching early on and in five of the past six games, he’s scored at least 18 points. The White Sox are 20th against the curve and Brio’s is down to a 4.13 xFIP, which isn’t bad considering it was over 5.00 in May. The K rate is back up over 20% and on another slate, I might be more interested.
I was prepared to fade Mikolas after he threw a massive 129 pitches in the last start, falling one out short of a no-hitter. That’s so many pitches that I would expect Mikolas to be a little bit limited here although he threw 115 pitches on May 29th, then threw 107 in his next start. Not only is that encouraging but once again, the DK algorithm completely dropped the ball and Mikolas is only $7,800. He was $8,400 in the last start, has two straight games of at least 32 DK, and his salary dropped by $600. There’s no real excuse for that and Milwaukee whiffs over 24% of the time. Mikolas mixes his pitches well and doesn’t throw anything over 28.1% and even though the 3.75 xFIP is well above the 2.62 ERA, it’s hard to not look to Mikolas as an SP2 candidate at this salary. My biggest fear is a repeat of the last time when he was in Milwaukee and scored under seven DK points and he is worse against lefties with an xFIP over 4.00 and a K rate under 19%. Overall though, Mikolas has been a strong SP2 through the season and I’d be a lot less enthused if he was n the $9,000 range.
Is he getting right as the season goes on? Since the start of May, the ERA has dropped under 3.00 and even though the K rate isn’t spectacular around 20%, Darvish has held teams to a 1.35 ERA at home and the K rate climbs over 25%. He’s been especially dominant against lefties at home at a .164 wOBA, 0.52 WHIP, and a 2.22 FIP and he’ll likely face at least seven lefties tonight. Arizona can hit some games but they also have a K rate of 24.9% and that is fifth when facing a righty. I don’t think the salary has caught up with Darvish pitching much better across the past ~50 IP or so and in the last 10 games, he’s averaging over 21 DK points. Arizona is up to seventh in ISO so this isn’t a sure thing but Darvish or Mikolas should be the SP2 and I think I might actually lean toward Darvish as my choice.
He could be sneaky on the other side of the Darvish matchup and this would be no sure thing. However, the Padres almost will surely be missing Manny Machado after a scary-looking ankle injury yesterday and even with Machado playing at a very high level, San Diego is 20th in OPS and wOBA, 25th in ISO, and 17th in wRC+. Davies is really nothing special but he does have a 26% K rate when facing a righty and a 3.67 xFIP to go along with a .290 wOBA. The left side is at .309 and the K rate plummets to just 13% and his changeup is likely the reason. The whiff rate is 35.6% and that’s used more when facing a righty and it has the most strikeouts of the arsenal at 29. The matchup wasn’t scary with Machado and obviously gets so much better without him.
Logan Webb – This spot profiles about as well as it could for a pitcher facing Atlanta but Webb has been very hard to get a grip on this season. Sure, the 33 DK start last time out is great but in the two previous games, he didn’t clear 10.9 DK. The Braves are third in K rate when facing a righty pitcher at 25.6% and Webb has been excellent against the left side of the plate with a 2.46 FIP, a .245 wOBA, and the K rate is over 22%. Still, there has been no stability with Webb in the least and he’s been worse on the road.
Lance Lynn – He’s super cheap this time around and his xFIP from the first start was only 3.64, a stark contrast to the 6.23 ERA. Lynn also threw 88 pitches so that aspect is encouraging and he was good against the seven righties he faced, typical of Lynn. Still, this is a really good offense and I can’t get behind going against the Jays at this point.
Josh Winckowski – I wanted to go after him against the Tigers at such a cheap salary and I believe you can in larger-field MME style. The main issues are he should face five lefties and through 17 hitters faced, LHH has a 50% fly-ball rate, 6.64 FIP, and a 5.21 xFIP. I grant you, it’s not a large sample size at all and that’s why he’s not totally out of play. We all know the Tigers offense has been horrid, although you wouldn’t know it from the past two games.
Angels
Red Sox (heavy LHH)
Cubs
Blue Jays
Pirates – Oneil Cruz is back up with the big boys and he has immense power in that bat and he swiped 11 bases in AAA this year. The team overall is DIRT cheap and Caleb Kilian for the Cubs has an xFIP over 6.20 against each side of the plate. They could be key to fitting everything we want.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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