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MLB DFS Hitter Stacks (July 5)

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Tuesday and that means we have a full slate of games to work with.  With a full slate comes a healthy amount of options for bats and tonight is no different.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup.  It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays  vs. Adrian Martinez

The Blue Jays were a huge letdown last night with our MLB DFS lineups.  They were able to muster just a single run against Cole Irvin.  I just don’t see it happening again against a team that has the second-worst run differential in all of baseball.  They get a solid matchup again tonight vs. a pitcher in Adrian Martinez that just got shelled by the Seattle Marines.  Though we don’t yet know how he’ll pitch at home in Oakland, what we do know so far is that he’s susceptible to righties. 

In 19 AB against righties so far in his young career, he’s allowed a .625 slugging % and a .421 wOBA.  He’ll face a mostly right-handed lineup tonight as the Blue Jays should put out 7-8 righties.  This could be another short outing for the young Athletics pitcher who also hasn’t fared too well in the minors this season.

As has been the case often of late, I find myself starting my Blue Jays stacks with Alejandro Kirk.  Kirk has been one of the more consistent hitters on this Blue Jays team all season and he also provided the only offense last night with the lone RBI.  Kirk and his teammates are going to see a ton of sinkers tonight as Martinez throws it more than 60% of the time.  Kirk has strong numbers vs. sinkers this season with a .447 average and a .517 wOBA. 

Next up will be the star of the team, Vladimir Guerrero.  He’s pricy tonight, but he should do well.  Guerrero also handles sinkers very well, even though he’s been a bit unlucky against them this year.  He has a massive hard-hit rate vs. them this season, with a 51%.  His expected slugging % is more than 100 points higher than his actual slugging %, meaning he’s due for some positive regression vs. them.  Love this bounce-back spot for him tonight.

Other guys I really like here are going to be Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, and Matt Chapman. 

New York Yankees vs. Jose Quintana

Although Jose Quintana hasn’t pitched too poorly this season, he does have a clear weakness and that weakness will be exploited tonight by the type of lineup he’ll face in the Yankees.  Quintana has typically dominated lefties and this season has been no different.  They have just .260 wOBA vs. him and a K rate over 30%.  The problem for Quintana is that he’ll face at most 2 lefties tonight. 

The Yankees can throw out a lineup with 7 righties and almost all of them have crushed lefties.  24 of the 27 extra-base hits that Quintana has allowed this season have been to righties, including all 7 homers.  With how powerful this lineup is, they very well could add to that total tonight even though the game is in Pittsburgh. 

This Yankees lineup tonight will feature 6 guys that have ISO’s over .200 against lefties this season.  Surprisingly, the one that has been the best against lefties over the last month is Josh Donaldson.  Over his last 21 plate appearances, Donaldson has a .473 wOBA against them and has also shown some pop with a .389 ISO.  Quintana throws his fastball more than 50% of the time to righties and Donaldson has a long track record of crushing lefty fastballs.  He’s one of the cheaper Yankee bats tonight and I’ll make sure to include him in my stack.

Next up will be the big name, Aaron Judge.  Judge is a home run threat every AB and with him coming into this one well-rested after having the last 2 days off, I just love the potential here.  Over the last month, Judge has an insane 72% hard-hit rate vs. southpaws and a .399 wOBA.  He’s expensive at $6.3k tonight and you can absolutely make the case to fade him because of that, but he should absolutely smash tonight in this matchup. 

Other important bats here will be Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Trevino.

San Francisco Giants vs. Tyler Gilbert

The Diamondbacks will turn the ball over to Tyler Gilbert tonight and that will be music to the ears of the San Francisco Giants hitters.  Gilbert is making just his fourth start of the year after spending most of the season in AAA.  His last 2 starts at the big league level have been atrocious.  In those 2 starts, Gilbert has allowed 12 ER in just 7 innings of work.  Against the Dodgers, he allowed 4 homers which is a very impressive feat. 

Even if we look at his stats at the AAA level this year, they’ve been bad.  He’s pitched to a 7.57 ERA and a 7.71 xFIP there.  We’re going to want to focus heavily on the righties tonight from San Fran.  Gilbert has allowed a massive .761 slugging % to righties so far this year in his small sample size. 

I’m starting my Giants stack with their leadoff hitter tonight, Austin Slater.  Over the last 30 days, Slater has been really good against southpaws.  He owns a .276 ISO and a .405 wOBA against them over that stretch.  What I love the most is that he also owns a nearly 59% hard-hit rate.  Gilbert has been throwing his sinker about a third of the time this year.  Against them this season, Slater has a .481 wOBA.

Next up here will be Darrin Ruf.  With Ruf we pick our spots and tonight is one of those spots.  Ruf has been very solid against lefties all year and especially over the last month.  In his last 87 plate appearances, Ruf has a .203 ISO and a .340 wOBA.  4 of his 6 home runs this season have come against southpaws.  Ruf too has very strong numbers against sinkers this year and if Gilbert continues to throw it more often, it could be a rough night form. 

Other bats I really like here will be Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski, and Wilmer Flores.  

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks, Guardians vs. Drew Hutchison, Cardinals vs. Ian Anderson, and Braves vs. Neil Pallante. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Pitching (July 4)

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/4

We only have seven games tonight but the pitching is pretty tough tonight. We have some options so we shouldn’t be at a total loss but the bottom half of the choices are going to be difficult to find many we love. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible so let’s dig into the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/4 to find our green screens! 

Aces 

Alek Manoah 

I fully expect Manoah to lead in ownership today as he’s under $9,500 on DK and he gets the Oakland lineup that sits 29th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ in addition to dead last in OBP. They are also striking out 23.9% of the time which is sixth-most in the league and should feed Manoah plenty of righties. His K rate isn’t spectacular at 22.7% and he’s been lucky so far with a 2.09 ERA compared to the 3.77 xFIP but hitters can’t make good contact. The hard-hit rate against Manoah is 24.7% (98th percentile) and his slider has a 31.1% whiff rate with only a .208 wOBA allowed. Out of the 399 sliders Manoah has thrown this year, 265 have come when facing a righty and no pitch is over a .293 mark so far. Righty hitters are down to a .194 wOBA and 2.25 FIP and Manoah has managed to get the lefties down to .315 although the 4.81 xFIP remains very high. The salary just isn’t high enough, especially for slate context and he shouldn’t see a lot of lefties anyway. 

Sean Manaea 

This is a much more boom/bust matchup because the Mariners have five hitters with a wOBA over .350 against the sinker and that pitch is 62% of the arsenal for Manaea. Seattle is mostly a mid-pack team against lefty pitching and the 3.77 xFIP isn’t terrible to go with a 25.8% K rate. That is something that Manaea could exploit since the Mariners whiff the seventh-most in the league at 23.6% and the 12.7% swinging-strike rate is the best mark of his career. When Manaea does turn to the change or slider, they both have a whiff rate of at least 30.8% and they have 37 strikeouts on the season. The right side of the plate does have a 1.22 WHP but only a 3.63 xFIP and the K rate jumps up to 26.3%. He’s far from the worst option even though I have zero trust in him. 

Honorable Mention 

Kyle Wright survived the last game and I don’t think he’s suddenly a bad pitcher but when we look at him since the start of May, the K rate is only at 22%. We’re talking about 68 innings at this point and the 37% K rate through April looks further away with each start. With the Cardinals on deck with their 20.4% K rate, Wright has a difficult path to make it worth his salary. 

Mid-Range 

Julio Urias 

It should set off alarm bells that Urias is the first man in for this group as he rarely even makes the cut. There are some issues such as the Rockies seeing him twice in a row, the fact his xFIP of 3.91 is higher than the 2.64 ERA, or that he’s capped around 90 pitches. However, getting a team when it comes out of Coors (especially after a week-long homestead) can be hugely helpful for a pitcher. Urias is up to a 23.5% K rate and the hard-hit rate is under 26%, both good signs for him. All of his pitches have a whiff rate of at least 26.3% and the month of June was his best so far. He had a 2.20 ERA, a .234 wOBA allowed, a 30.6% K rate, and a 0.94 HR/9. It may not be realistic for him to keep that up but the salary works and really, the largest issue is this offense is still good when facing a lefty even on the road. They’re top 10 in most categories so we’re hoping that Urias carries the momentum and the Rockies don’t adjust for the first road game in a week. 

Taijuan Walker 

I’m willing to roll the dice here as Walker pitched better once he got some innings under him n June with 37.2 and that generated a 2.63 ERA, a .252 wOBA, and a K rate over 22%. He’s using a splitter and four-seam mix as around 60% of the arsenal and the splitter has a 30.3% whiff rate and 32 of 52 strikeouts. It’s not the most popular pitch but Cincinnati is only 16th against it and Walker also gets a ground ball rate of 48.9% with a hard-hit rate under 30%. That’s exactly what we want in a park like Cincy as he can keep the ball out of the air and he’s slightly better against the right side of the plate as well with a .249 wOBA and a 2.64 FIP. I’m not sure he’s going to be the largest source of strikeouts but he has a clear path to success. 

Honorable Mention 

When a player has a 28.9% K rate as Hunter Greene does, he has to be mentioned but we also need to be careful with where we target him because he struggles in many other aspects of pitching. The largest issue is the Mets may not give him much since they are under 20% for the K rate as a team and they are eighth when facing a fastball, the main culprit for Greene giving up home runs. 

Punt Range 

This range is mostly barren although I think Johnny Cueto will pick up some steam. He’s been totally fine through his 54 innings so far with a 3.97 xFIP, a 3.33 ERA, and a 20.5% K rate. As much as the Minnesota offense can be baffling to get right, they still rank fifth in wOBA, fourth in wRC+, eighth in ISO, and fifth in OPS against righty pitching. That’s not something that I’m terribly interested in attacking, even with Cueto being solid so far. 

Missed The Cut 

Chris Flexen – He doesn’t get the toughest matchup with the Padres but any pitcher that has an xFIP over 5.00 with a K rate of 16.1% is not a player I’m looking to get after. It doesn’t help he’s over $8,000 on DK because he’s not even that cheap. 

Stacks 

Blue Jays 

Dodgers 

Guardians/Tigers Game Stack 

Braves 

White Sox 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB

MLB DFS Pitching (July 2)

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/2

We have a hefty slate of afternoon baseball today with the slate kicking off at 4:00 p.m. and some interesting pitching options as well! There is no pitcher in the five digits on this slate, which isn’t something we see very often. Let’s dive in and figure out who we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/2 to find green screens! 

Aces

Dylan Cease 

I would expect Cease to be pretty heavy chalk here (not sure how over 74 DK points in the past two starts combined leaves him under $10,000) due to the slate and the salary. His 35.5% K rate is unbelievable and the 2.51/2.75 FIP/xFIP combo is excellent, as is the 15.9% swinging-strike rate. Now, even with his sky-high ceiling, this could be a bit of a tougher spot as far as his weaker aspects. Normally his 10.9% walk rate doesn’t really worry me with the K rate spiked but the Giants do have the third-highest walk rate when facing a righty at 10%. The next issue is he is worse against lefties at a .315 wOBA, a .307 xFIP, and a 2.27 WHIP and if those numbers sound really good…well, they are. Cease is just a really good pitcher and he’s carrying a 32% K rate when facing a lefty as well, in addition to the .410 BABIP that is ridiculous. There is a case where this could be an average start for him, but the salary is silly low for what he can do. 

Tyler Mahle 

This is an interesting matchup because Mahle has found his footing and across 33.2 innings in June, he posted a 2.94 ERA, a .291 wOBA, a 28.7% K rate, and a 2.89/3.32 FIP/xFIP combo. Even during the year, as a whole, Mahle was a little better against righty hitters with a 3.69 xFIP and a 1.25 WHIP but this lineup for the Braves is hit-and-miss, sometimes literally. They’re sitting at a 25.5% K rate but they also have the second-highest ISO when facing a righty so Mahle could have a good start or he could get cracked. It’s not the best for Mahle that the Braves are the best fastball team in baseball because he is using that pitch 50.3% of the time and it has allowed seven of nine home runs and a .286 wOBA. I tend to side with Atlanta here but there’s no doubting Mahle has upside. 

Mid-Range 

Logan Webb 

Webb continues to trend upward after June which showed why we were excited about him to start the season. Across his 30.1 IP, his ERA was 2.08 with a .254 wOBA, a 25.8% K rate, a 0.30 HR/9, and a 2.95 xFIP. He’s also done his best work against the right side of the plate and the Sox should give him plenty to eat up with a .235 wOBA, 24.2% K rate, and a 2.50 FIP across the entire season. His slider and changeup mix are the top two pitches and they have 65 of his 81 strikeouts while both have a whiff rate over 27%. That’s a mixed bag for the matchup because the Sox are leading the league against the changeup but they are in the bottom five when facing the slider. Even then, they’re in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories against righties so Webb is in a very solid spot. 

Spencer Strider 

I don’t think anyone has the point-per-dollar upside to match Strider because he’s been fantastic as a starter. The ERA might look too high at 3.68 but the xFIP of 2.70 is an almost identical match to his 2.72 mark as a reliever. The K rate has “dropped” to 34.1% and the only thing that looks off is the strand rate at 67.1%. Overall, the Cincy lineup could break well for him because his best strikeout side is against righties at a massive 40% and the FIP is 2.18. Strider does have a high walk rate at 14.7% when facing a righty but the Reds are just 22nd at 7.7%. When Strider lets his slider rip, it has a 52% whiff rate and a .168 wOBA and his slider/four-seam combo s about all he throws. Cincy is only 18th against the fastball and 25th against the slider so this is a reasonable spot for him to flirt with 25 DK points, even though he doesn’t have a long track record. 

Brady Singer 

By the looks of some of his metrics, Singer has been unlucky with a 3.57 xFIP compared to a 4.33 ERA, although the FIP is at 4.20. The cause looks to be a 16.1% HR/FB rate which is about 2% higher than his career rate but he still has a K rate of 22.1%. Detroit is 27th when facing a slider and that’s the pitch doing the most work for Singer with a 38.8% whiff rate and 29 of 49 strikeouts. The lineup is still important since Singer is not hanging that side. They have a 6.13 FIP, a 2.66 xFIP, and a .361 wOBA so even though it’s the Tigers, it’s not like this is the most stable spot for him (nor is he someone that is a bankable pitcher). 

Honorable Mention 

There is talent with George Kirby but we’ve had a tough time seeing it in the majors. That’s far from all his fault but he’s been under 17.5 DK points in seven of 10 starts. The K rate is down to 21.8% and he has not handled the right side of the plate well at all with a .417 wOBA, a 3.04 HR/9, and a 6.43 FIP. Granted, the Oakland lineup isn’t brimming with quality righties (they are in the bottom three in all offensive categories) but I’m not over the moon for Kirby today. 

Punt Range 

Aaron Ashby 

This is not the safest pick but you have to be looking his way to some extent in this spot. The K rate for the Pirates against a lefty pitcher over the past 14 days is 30.2% and they’re in the bottom four of OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP. Ashby has only spent the minimum time on the IL so that is encouraging and in the previous four starts ahead of the injury, he threw at least 91 pitches in all four games. On the year, Ashby has a 3.08 xFIP with a 4.25 ERA but his K rate is 27.5% and the ground ball rate is 62.2%. That’s perfect to try and limit the power the Buccos can show (14th in ISO) and even when Ashby is starting, the K rate remains at 25%. His splits against lefties might look rough but the BABIP is an absurd .500. That isn’t a concern for me even though the Pirates might be playing quite a few lefties today. I’m not sure if we’ll get a pitch count but Patrick Corbin just dropped almost 40 points on this lineup. 

Honorable Mention 

I’m not sure if we’ll see Jose Urquidy pick up the steam that Cristian Javier did yesterday, but the Angels do strike out a ton. Urquidy doesn’t take advantage of that much with a 17% K rate and a 4.54 xFIP, both reasons I wouldn’t normally include him. Each side of the plate also has at least a .335 wOBA so there is a significant risk. 

Missed The Cut 

Kyle Gibson – Since the start of May, his ERA is over 4.80 and the wOBA is over .330, not the most encouraging stretch. The Cardinals don’t strike out and Gibson has a higher xFIP when facing a lefty and then a higher wOBA when facing a righty. 

Stacks

Brewers

Marlins/Nationals Game Stack

Mariners

Phillies

Braves

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB

MLB DFS Hitter Stacks (July 1)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Thanks to some day baseball, we have a smaller than usual 10-game slate of MLB DFS on this fine first day of July.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup.  It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Glenn Otto

The New York Mets are coming off their first 3-game losing streak of the season, a streak that has left Mets fans pretty worried.  Mets fans have no fear, we get to take on Glenn Otto tonight who has struggled in the Majors.  Through 9 starts this season, Otto has pitched to an ERA and xFIP over 5.  His last start was arguably his worst in the bigs as he gave up 6 ER in just 2 innings of work. 

While he didn’t give up a single homer in that one, he managed to give up 13 base hits in the 2 innings.  That takes quite a bit of talent.  Otto has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, playing right into the Mets’ hands as many of the big bats on the team are right-handed.  Righties have almost a .500 slugging % vs. him this year, compared to just a .307 for lefties. 

Knowing that Otto struggles against righties gives me more confidence to start this stack with the MLB RBI leader in Pete Alonso.  Alonso has had a monster 2022 so far.  The Polar Bear is up to 22 homers and 69 RBI on the year.  Over the last 30 days, Alonso has just smashed righties.  His ISO is .433 and wOBA is .446 against them in June.  Of his 22 homers this season, 17 have come against righties.  He should be in a solid spot to add to his season-long power numbers tonight.

Next up will be Starling Marte.  Marte’s first season with the Mets has been a successful one so far.  Hitting in front of Alonso, he’s already been able to score 48 runs while driving in 36.  With his combination of speed and power, Marte always possesses a chance to stuff the box score.  He’s up to 8 steals on the season and can cause havoc for pitchers when he’s on base, making Alonso’s at-bats more fun to watch. 

Other Mets I’ll like in this stack will be Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil.  Nimmo is coming into this game as the Mets’ hottest hitter over the last week.  He has 8 hits in his last 20 AB.  He sets the tone at the top of this order.

Minnesota Twins vs. Spenser Watkins

The right-handed heavy Minnesota Twins get to take on Spenser Watkins today.  A pitcher that has really struggled to get out right-handed hitters in his brief career.  Making just his second start since coming back from the Minor Leagues, Watkins will try to silence a Twins lineup that has been very solid against right-handed pitching.  The Twins in 2022 have a 115 wRC and a .749 OPS against right-handed pitching. 

Making matters worse for Watkins is that he’s going to face a lineup tonight that will be right-handed heavy.  He’ll be facing a lineup that could have 5-6 righties in it.  Against righties this season, Watkins has given up a .581 slugging % compared to just .357 vs. lefties.  All 5 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties.  If Rocco Baldelli were smart, and I think he is, he’d just load up on righties tonight.

One guy that we know will definitely be in there tonight and that will be the focus of my Twins stack will be Carlos Correa.  Correa has been lights out of late.  Over his last 24 AB, he has 7 hits and has scored 7 runs.  He’s also driven in 5 thanks to 2 bombs.  Against righties over the last month, Correa has a .305 ISO and a .455 wOBA.  8 of Correa’s 9 homers this season have come against righties.  There’s a solid chance he can add to that number tonight.

Next up is the most frustrating player in all of MLB DFS, Byron Buxton.  When playing Buxton, you always need to be prepared for an 0-5 night with 3k’s.  With Watkins, I’m not going to be overly concerned with the K risk tonight.  Against righties, his K rate over the course of his career has been just 12%.  Buxton over the last 30 days has been extremely solid vs. righties, with an ISO and wOBA over .450.  Can he mess this up and get us a goose egg tonight?  Yes, but he’s in a great spot and provided a ton of reward potential here.

Other guys I also like here are Gary Sanchez, Jorge Polanco, and Gio Urshela (hopefully he’s in there tonight). 

Seattle Mariners vs. James Kaprielian

The Seattle Mariners get just a great matchup tonight vs. James Kaprielian.  Kaprielian is a pitcher that just doesn’t miss enough bats to be successful, especially with the amount of hard contact that he gives up.  Over his last 24 innings of work, Kap has just a 13.6% K rate, while giving up 5 homers and 7 barrels.  His ERA and xFIP are just about even and they are both over 5.60.  He’s someone that is struggling and with his struggles, we want to stack against him. 

While he’s been pretty bad against both sides of the plate, he’s been especially bad against lefties.  Lefties have a slugging % of .539 against him this season.  Away from Oakland, it’s been slightly higher at .548.  With the addition of Carlos Santana, it’s another lefty bat that Kap will have to deal with tonight. 

While he’s not a lefty, my Mariners stack is going to start with leading rookie of the year candidate, Julio Rodriguez.  Rodriguez’s first season in the bigs has been a solid one. In 77 games so far this season, he’s already scored 43 runs and driven in 39.  He’s been a huge part of this offense and should do well tonight.  Against righties over the last month, he has a wOBA of .381 and an ISO of .224.

Now we get to the lefties.  First up will be Jessie Winker.  We’ll need to keep an eye on this one as he very well could start his suspension tonight.  If he appeals and plays tonight, I love this spot for him.  After starting out the year slowly, he’s been much better.  Over the last month, his wOBA against righties is up to .392.  In his last 24 AB, he has 10 hits and has a wRC of 7.  We’ll just need to keep an eye on his status tonight.

Other lefties I really like here will be Carlos Santana, Cal Raleigh, and Abraham Toro.

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Diamondbacks vs. Antonio Senzatela, Orioles vs. Joe Ryan, and Milwaukee Brewers vs. Roansy Contreras. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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