MLB

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/17

We have nine games tonight, breaking the strong of slates that were at least 10 games. We have one of the best pitchers in the league on the mound tonight and I’m sure he’ll be justified chalk, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find other guys we like. Let’s talk about the most popular pitcher on the slate and more in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/17!

Aces

Max Scherzer 

We don’t need to open much time here because Mad Max doesn’t appear to age with a 1.93 ERA, a 3.22 xFIP, a 31.3% K rate, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 16.3% swinging-strike rate. He just saw the Braves offense two starts ago and almost hit 40 DK and while maybe that doesn’t happen tonight, Atlanta’s weaknesses fit his strengths to a tee. They have a top five strikeout rate against righties on the season and they should throw out six righties on top of that. Scherzer is at his best against that side of the plate with a .223 wOBA, a 32.6% K rate, a 0.16 HR/9, and a 1.24 FIP. Even at (I’m assuming) heavy chalk, there is no real reason to not roll with Scherzer tonight on paper. 

Carlos Rodon 

We should all have infinitely more trust in Scherzer over Rodon, but there is certainly an outcome on the slate where Rodon leads in DK points. It may not seem like it but he does have a 31.1% K rate on the year and a 3.08 xFIP to go along with a 2.40 FIP and a 13.8% swinging-strike rate. He’s only faced Arizona once and he had seven strikeouts with four earned runs, so it encapsulates his season so far. Rodon is fully capable of being utterly dominant but he can also be frustrating. I may be wrong, but moving to the four-seam/slider mix even more this season doesn’t seem to have been the best move. These two pitches are over 92% of his arsenal while last year it was around 84% and both pitches have taken a dip in results. The fastball has already given up nine home runs and it gave up just nine all of last year, and it’s likely a little easier to sit on that fastball as a hitter now. Still, Arizona is 18th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP to go along with a K rate of 22.7%. Rodon has been better at home with a 1.89 ERA, a 34.8% K rate, and a 2.65 xFIP. If we can swing it, there’s nothing wrong with pitching both guys here. 

Tony Gonsolin 

The K rate is definitely not as exciting for Gonsolin as some others tonight since it is only 23.5% and he still has the red flag of a 3.81 xFIP compared to a 2.24 ERA. However, he’s succeeded pretty much the entire season with that number, and part of the reason is a 0.89 WHIP. That is artificially low because the BABIP is only .203 but Gonsolin is at least holding the opposition to a 30.4% hard-hit rate. His swinging-strike rate is 12.1% and his splitter is doing the most work in that respect with a whiff rate over 30%. Neither side of the plate has been over a .258 wOBA and they are both over a 23% K rate and the left side has the harder time with a 2.97 FIP and a 0.56 HR/9. This isn’t an easier matchup for him as the Brewers are in the top eight in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, ISO, and OBP but he’s coming in at under 5% for his ownership, that’s an interesting GPP play for 20 max or more. 

Honorable Mention 

He made me look stupid last time since Framber Valdez scored over 30 DK points but this salary still freaks me out for a pitcher that averages under 20 DK points and the profile would agree. The K rate is only 22.1% and the ground ball rate is over 67% so there’s a very obvious path to have a strong game but not have the upside of any of the other three. 

Everyone Else 

There really isn’t much of a Mid-Range today as only three pitchers fit the bill as far as salary. I’m really looking only at one and I’m totally fine giving Roansy Contreras a shot as the Red Sox have a 26% K rate over the past 30 days when they face a righty pitcher, the second-highest in baseball. They are also 19th or lower in OPS, wRC+, wOBA, and OBP and Contreras sure did a “super” job working on “two” issues down on the farm. He’s been difficult to get right in the majors and has a 4.30 xFIP to go along with a 10.1% walk rate and a 37.1% hard-hit rate, but there is an upside to chase. You just have to know there is no safety built-in. 

My main SP2 on the slate has to be Jordan Montgomery, and I expect him to be popular. He went for 29.9 DK points last time out and that managed to get him just a $100 increase in salary, and now he gets to face the Rockies away from Coors. Just like Quintana yesterday, it’s a strong matchup as they rank in the bottom half in most of our categories and Montgomery has a 3.58 xFIP and a 20.8% K rate to go with a hard-hit rate of just 25.1%. He hasn’t thrown a cutter as a Cardinal (that’s a good thing since it hasn’t been a good pitch) and using the sinker more with the curve and change being about a total of 40%. Those two pitches have a whiff rate over 40% and he’s a talented pitcher at a fairly ridiculous salary. 

Honorable Mention 

The profile is beyond average, but I suppose Cal Quantrill could pop up for a good start here. He’s had two starts against the Tigers this year and one has scored 23.3 and one has scored 4.4. He has walked through the Astros and Blue Jays in his past two starts, but nothing looks that different for him. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA of about .315 and he does have a K rate of 20.4% against the left side. However, both sides have a 4.35 xFIP or higher so I’m not crazy about him and admitting 20 DK wouldn’t surprise me. 

Along those same lines, Rich Hill gets a sweetheart matchup with the Pittsburgh offense sporting a K rate of 26.7% and they rank in the bottom five of wRC+, wOBA, OBP, and OPS. Hill likely still has a limit on his pitch count to about 80 or so as he works his way back from injury but at the salary, that may well be enough. The K rate is only 17.8% but the Pirates should help with that and the hard-hit rate is also just 27.2%. With the general incompetence of the Pittsburgh lineup, he’s not going to need a ton to pay off here and if he faces some lefties, that would help as the K rate jumps to 22% and the xFIP goes down to 3.88. 

Missed The Cut 

Corey Kluber – He really isn’t going to be a target for me because even though the Yanks are struggling pretty badly right now, they can’t stay like this forever. The offense is too good to just not hit the rest of the way and even though Kluber is a little bit better against the right side, he’s pretty expensive. On top of that, his K rate has continually gone down every month so far and his ERA is over 5.50 since the start of July. 

Micheal Kopech – He smashed the Tigers in the past start, but Detroit is not Houston. He still has a 4.69 xFIP, the K rate is just 22.4%, and the fly-ball rate is 48% so it’s hard to see a path to any major success. 

Stacks 

Rangers 

Mets 

Giants 

Cardinals 

Rays 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/15

Monday comes around with 10 games tonight, and we have some strong options up top. Everyone’s favorite pitcher is on the mound and no, I’m not talking about Shohei Ohtani even though he’s an elite option. The real question is if there are any viable cheap options so let’s get into the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/15!

Aces

Gerrit Cole 

Give me all the Cole tonight as he hits the Bronx fresh off a redemption tour last time on the mound with seven innings, four hits, and eight strikeouts for 29.4 DK points. Tonight, he sees the Tampa offense that is fifth in K rate against righties at 24.5% and ranks 27th when they see a fastball and 19th when they see a slider. Those two pitches make up almost 73% of what Cole throws this season and they both have a whiff rate over 30.5%, a wOBA under .280, and they’ve totaled 147 of his 178 strikeouts. If that wasn’t enough, he’s raised his game in front of the home fans (two starts ago duly noted) and has a 35.2% K rate, a 0.87 WHIP, a 2.21 xFIP, and a 2.69 FIP. If that wasn’t enough, lefties have a 39.4% K rate and a .210 wOBA n that split and the Rays should play at least five. The stats and metrics paint too good of a picture here to not be on board. 

Shohei Ohtani 

I might prefer Cole but it’s absolutely possible that Ohtani outscores him, even though Seattle has a better offense overall than the Rays do. They strike out at a 22.4% rate and are in the top 12 in wRC+ (they are more toward the middle of the pack for our categories, in fairness). Ohtani is rocking an xFIP of just 2.38, an ERA of 2.68, a K rate of 35.2%, and his swinging-strike rate is 15.9%. That tends to happen when three of your main offerings have a whiff rate well over 30% and two of them cross 40%. Ohtani also continues to evolve which is always fantastic to see as the slider has taken over for his main pitch, and the all-around results are some of the best he’s put forth. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA, both sides whiff at least 33.3% of the time, and both have an xFIP under 2.45. If there’s a way to punt a couple of hitters and play both pitchers, I would be interested in that route for sure. 

Luis Castillo 

It feels like it’s gone totally under the radar, but this guy has been a rock all season long and that’s included his first couple of starts with the Mariners. Across 99.2 innings, he has a 2.71 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and an xFIP of 3.37, which isn’t a deal-breaker at $9,200. You’re willing to take that risk a little more when a pitcher sports a 26.1% K rate, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 45.1% ground ball rate. He mixes his pitches well with the four-seam and changeup being the man two with 73 strikeouts. Everything looks strong for him even before factoring in the matchup with the Angels, who are bottom-five against the fastball this season. Los Angeles has curbed their K rate a bit over the past 30 days and brought it down to 24.5% but that’s still something to attack and both sides of the plate are under .285 for the wOBA and both strike out at least 23.2% of the time. He could be a very worthwhile pivot and save about $1,000 from the upper two options tonight. 

Julio Urias 

I may have avoided him most of the season but even I cannot deny the spot Urias is in tonight. His profile is a little less appealing than you would think compared to his streak of averaging 22.9 DK points over the past 10 starts. The xFIP is 3.68, the K rate is 24.2%, and the fly-ball rate is 44.3%. However, he does balance that out a bit by allowing a 27.4% hard-hit rate and he is still generating an 11.6% swinging-strike rate. Only his changeup has a whiff rate over 30% but every pitch has a wOBA under .295. Even the right side of the plate has only produced a .272 wOBA and a 1.05 WHIP. The Brewers have really struggled when they see lefty pitching as well since they are 25th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS while also ranking 22nd in ISO and OBP. If that wasn’t enough, the K rate is sky-high at 25% and the only knock is his pitch count has not topped 99 all season. Still, that hasn’t mattered much when he’s been on the mound. 

Mid-Range 

Note – It looks like Spencer Strider is finally going to start and while his metrics are the same as they were three days ago, the matchup has decidedly switched. The Mets are much tougher to face and they have the second-lowest K rate of any team in baseball when they face a righty. To make matters worse, this will be the third time in six starts Strider has seen the Mets and that includes his last start where he had to throw 79 pitches through 2.2 innings. I’m going to be very light on Strider tonight as the risk outweighs the reward in my eyes. 

Josiah Gray 

At this price, I feel compelled to take a stab at Gray since he has a K rate of 26.3% and may only see three lefties. Of course, I don’t love the fact that he’s going to see the Cubs for the second straight time but there is still an upside to get after here. He should see only three lefties (hopefully) and they smash him with a .388 wOBA, a 3.04 HR/9, and a 5.20 xFIP. The right side is much better for him with a 3.60 xFIP and the K rate is over 27% while the Cubbies have the ninth-highest K rate when facing a righty. If he can figure out his four-seam, he’s going to be a very good pitcher since his slider and curve have a whiff rate over 35% and a wOBA under .280. The four-seam is getting destroyed for a .457 wOBA so there is not one once of safety, but he’s cheap for the strikeout ability. 

Honorable Mention 

Generally, Jose Urquidy is not someone we look at but he throws the ball with his right hand and he faces the White Sox. In 2022, that’s enough to make the list for consideration even if there isn’t a lot of faith in Urquidy himself. His K rate is just 18.9% and the xFIP is 4.42, so that isn’t super ideal, nor is his 4.87 xFIP, 14.1% K rate, and 1.66 HR/9 on the road. However, the White Sox are 20th or lower in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS when they see a righty so it’s a very average pitcher (at best) against a cupcake matchup. 

Punt Range 

Alex Cobb 

I could be proven wrong but I really think Cobb could post a big score here. For one, his xFIP and FIP combo continue to be below 2.95 which flies in the face of the 4.15 ERA. His HR/9 is only 0.68 and the K rate is 25.3%, a huge number at this salary. Cobb’s strand rate is 10% lower than his career mark and the BABIP is roughly 30 points higher, which has proven to be a poor combo for him. When Cobb doesn’t get the strikeout, his ground ball rate is crazy high at 61.1% and even with the bad luck, Cobb has been far better in San Francisco. In that split, he has a 3.00 ERA and the K rate is 27.7% to go with a 1.16 WHP and a 2.54 FIP. Even more exciting is the fact he’s holding lefties to a 2.04 FIP and a .257 wOBA and the Arizona lineup is going to be strongly lefty-heavy. They are also leaving Denver so the advantages lie with Cobb tonight and I could see him being the best point per dollar option of the slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Kris Bubic is someone I’ll struggle with because it’s difficult for me to not just play Cobb for $300 more but Bubic should be largely ignored. He’s been on a nice streak here, scoring at least 15.9 DK points in each of his last five starts and they have been tough matchups. He gets another one with the Twins but since July, Bubic has pitched 47.1 innings with an ERA under 3.15, a wOBA around .300, and a K rate over 20%. In MME formats, that’s going to be worth taking shots at. 

Missed The Cut 

Carlos Carrasco – You can give him a try to attack the weakness of the Braves lineup, which is the K rate of 25.4% on the season. There is a possibility that Ronald Acuna will remain out and that would change the dynamic, although Carrasco has produced worse on the road. It’s interesting though because the xFIP is at 3.39 on the road and 3.44 at home. Carrasco could jump up into play depending on the lineup he’s facing, as Atlanta is fairly beat up compared to what the lineup was thought to be at the start of the season. 

Joe Ryan – I can honestly say I have no idea which version of him will show up every fifth day. The bottom line is he does have a 4.53 xFIP and a 56% fly-ball rate, both of which are very worrisome. If he gets enough righties, I may take a stab because the K rate is over 30% against that side of the plate and he could face up to six. Like Carrasco, he’s a fade on Sunday night but that is subject to change. The salary is pretty appealing if things break his way. 

Stacks 

Rangers 

Yankees

Orioles

Blue Jays 

Astros 

Giants 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/14

We get another double-digit slate in terms of games for the third straight day, but this one might be a little short on Aces. Sure, there is a lot of talent on the mound but some of them are in pretty tough spots and the upper elite options really aren’t available. Let’s figure out who’s going to offer the best route to success in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/14 so we can find green screens! 

Aces

Note – We covered Spencer Strider in the Saturday edition and even though the salary rose by $400, he still is my favorite Ace in the tier. With some of the matchups on the board, the one against the Marlins is about the most appealing and I suspect he’ll be quite popular. I’ll include myself in that popularity. 

Zack Wheeler 

The salaries for the Ace pitchers reflect that they are not in easy matchups and nobody is $10,000 or over. While the Mets are a strong offense, Wheeler has had a very strong season with a 3.12 xFIP, 2.91 FIP, 2.63 ERA, a 0.78 HR/9, and a 27.2% K rate, and a 12% swinging-strike rate. That is only 0.3% behind his highest mark in his career that came last season and his four-seam has come up to a 29.5% whiff rate to go with 61 strikeouts. The Mets are 10th against the pitch and Wheeler does have a 20.7 point start against this offense in May. Both sides of the plate are under a .290 wOBA, both sides whiff at least 26.3%, and both sides have. WHIP under 1.10. I totally understand playing him, but he’s riskier than normal. 

Chris Bassitt 

This has been a low-scoring series so far (understandably given who’s been on the mound) and Bassitt has the ability to extend that stretch. We always like him better at home since he has both sides of the plate under a .275 wOBA, he has a 2.72 ERA, and the K rate is 26.2% with an xFIP of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.00. Kyle Schwarber has missed two games now with a leg issue and is not a guarantee to play, which would only help Bassitt even more. We still do want the right side to face Bassitt as much as possible so it brings his slider out more as he’s thrown 313 of his 385 on the season against righty hitters. That pitch has a 33.9% whiff rate and they are just 16th in wRC+. Now, they are also 11th in OPS and eighth in ISO so we know that this one can go bad. Bassitt is still such a different pitcher at home that we can’t ignore him. 

Mid-Range 

Cristian Javier 

He can be a very frustrating player because he’s typically capped around 90 or so pitches and even though his walk rate is only 8.9%, he works very deep into counts because he’s a strikeout pitcher. The K rate is fantastic at 32.5% and when he’s under $9,000, that’s even more appealing. His fly-ball rate is scary at 58.6% and the fact that the xFIP is under 4.00 actually comforts me. The stuff is nasty for Javier with a swinging-strike rate over 13% and the four-seam slider combo works well together. Those two pitches are about 87% of his arsenal and they both have a 26.7% whiff rate or higher with a wOBA under .300 allowed (the slider is .191). Oakland is in the bottom five against both those pitches and they also are in the bottom five in about every category offensively. The more righties in the lineup, the better since Javier has a 39.5% K rate and a 3.03 xFIP while the left side is sitting at a .298 wOBA. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s popular as well with the salary and matchup in consideration. 

Tyler Anderson

The Royals aren’t a pushover as they rank 16th in ISO, 13th in wOBA, and 13th in OPS with a K rate that is the third lowest in the league when facing a lefty (18.6%). By the same token, Anderson isn’t a pushover pitcher and he’s been a very pleasant surprise for the Dodgers. Through his 122.1 IP so far, the ERA is 2.72 with a 20.1% K rate and a hard hit rate of just 27.3%. His profile is not perfect with an xFIP of 4.07 but Kansas City s a great spot to keep the ball in the park (maybe don’t tell the Royals that after getting bludgeoned by LA last night, but still) and Anderson is not at a salary that he needs big strikeout numbers to pay off. He has been at least $8,800 since June 15th but yet, he’s under $8,000 on this slate and that’s extremely affordable. Anderson is in the 94th percentile of hard-hit rate and three of his four pitches are under a .290 wOBA allowed. His four-seam is up to .365 but KC is just average at 16th against that pitch so Anderson truly is a hair too cheap. 

Honorable Mention 

It’s not a play that I love but Martin Perez can at least be on the table. Seattle is 11th in wRC+ and seventh in OBP but they do strike out over 23% of the time. Perez has a 3.70 xFIP and his HR/FB rate is only 7.4%, very low compared to his career mark of 12.2%. That has me skittish on him but I grant he could still have 20 DK points in him today. 

I’m very torn on the other side of this game as well with Logan Gilbert. Since June started, his wOBA is over .318 and his K rate has dropped below 22% with an xFIP around 4.00. That is pretty alarming but at the same time, the Rangers are 20th in ISO, 24th in OPS, 26th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+ when they face a righty. Additionally, he’s going to face a ton of lefties and that’s a good thing with a .256 wOBA, 24.1% K rate, and a 1.03 WHIP against that side of the plate. The matchup is good enough for $7,700 that I roll the dice in a three-max, but that would be the threshold for playing him in my eyes. Single entry and cash would be scary. 

Punt Range 

Miles Mikolas 

He made history in the last start and not in a good way. Mikolas became the first pitcher to allow 10 runs or more and at least 14 hits in under three innings of work, so at least we know it can’t get worse, right? Since he went for a whopping -18 DK points, the salary has dropped an immense amount and I’m strongly considering him. The profile won’t dazzle you (especially after last time) but he still has an xFIP under 3.85 and a K rate of 18.9%, and the salary is down to $7,100. Mikolas is still holding hitters to a 29% hard-hit rate and a 44% ground ball rate. Milwaukee has got to him twice and he’s scored over 28 against them this year but he’s excellent at home with a 2.48 ERA, a .255 wOBA, a 20.4% K rate, and a 0.88 WHIP. He’s far from a lock, but the salary is so low that he can easily be a strong value play. 

Lance Lynn 

I’d be lying If I said I knew what was going to happen with Lynn today. He’s had some ups and he’s had a lot of downs through his 11 starts so far and the matchup plays a big part, as even Lucas Giolito squeezed out 20 DK while giving up four runs last night. I’ve made the case before that Lynn has had horrible luck this year with a 3.56 xFIP compared to a 5.88 ERA and his strand rate is only 60.5% (75.5% on the career) with a HR/9 of 1.96 (0.90 on the career). Now, some of that could just be he’s 35 years old with over 1,640 innings n the majors but I don’t think he’s totally cooked yet since he has a 23.8% K rate and a 41% ground ball rate. The lefties certainly worry me with a .368 wOBA, 18.1% K rate, and a 5.44 FIP but this lineup is one of the worst in baseball. I’ll be interested to see what happens as far as ownership today as he could be the chalk choice for SP2 at just $6,800. 

Missed The Cut 

Shane Bieber – If you’re playing a lot of lineups, he’s probably with getting to 5-10% because Bieber has had such a strong year. The K rate is over 25% with a 2.88 FIP and a 45.8% ground ball rate, so I’m not thinking he gets torched. Having said that, the worse side of the plate is the right side for Bieber with a 3.31 xFIP and 1.18 WHIP so he wouldn’t be one of my main targets in SE or three-max. 

Stacks 

Cardinals 

Braves 

Astros 

Cubs 

Rays 

White Sox 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!