Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
When looking at this slate at first glance, this is a really strong top-heavy slate in regards to arms and while the names may not be all your “normal” $10K+ arms – there are strong arguments to be made on DK for making this a double ace kind of day.
Yu Darvish ($11K) is the highest priced arm on the slate and we now have a season+ of proof that his elite K ability at over 30% is here to stay. Darvish continues to simply dominate RHB specifically with a 36% K rate since the start of last season that has gotten even better in 2020 as he has ticked over 39% and so with half the Cardinals line-up hitting from the right side – it sets up well for another strong outing from Darvish.
Darvish checks every single box – the high K rate, the 16% swinging-strike rate and the fact he has gone 100+ pitches in 3 of his last 4 starts. That ability to go deep and rack up K’s offers you an immensely high ceiling to start your builds with today.
Going with a double ace approach on DK means we can look at builds where we utilize SP1’s like Dylan Bundy and/or Carlos Carrasco as our SP2.
Bundy has a solid 27% K rate this season and a 12.6% SS rate while Carrasco sits a tick higher at 29% and 13.4% across the same metrics. Carrasco also gets the seemingly easier match-up against Milwaukee that is striking out at a 25.7% clip against RHP this season so the upside is absolutely there for him in this match-up tonight.
Carrasco does have downside – and he seemingly has it when the match-up is at its best – as he showed with back to back duds against weak offenses like Detroit and St. Louis.
If you want to leverage off Carrasco (assuming he gains the ownership I expect), I think Bundy is the logical pivot. I expect most will rather pick on Milwaukee versus Houston, but I think this match-up for Bundy is better than folks will realize.
Houston is banged up, with both Alex Bregman and Yordano Alvarez on the IL and Jose Altuve leaving last night with an injury. This could leave the Astros extremely short-handed and also -right-handed heavy – which would play into Bundy’s strengths with his massive 35.9% K rate to RHB this season.
There is substantial paths to upside for all three arms here tonight – and I think pairing two of them, could pay big dividends in GPP’s.
Now pairing these two high dollar arms means we are looking at building our lineups with “just” $3.6K per batter but looking at the pricing on DK today for the bats – it does not feel like you need to sacrifice at all to get an elite stack alongside your aces.
If you are new to Picks and Pivots you know I have a thing – a Dodgers thing – and tonight, the pricing on LAD is leading me down this path once again.
Tonight they take on Antonio Senzatela, who has historically struggled more against LHB, surrendering a near .200 ISO mark against them since the start of last season.
Diving deeper, Senzatela is a GB pitcher, so when isolating the bats we want – the goal is to find lefties and lefties with FB tendencies to counterbalance the pitcher’s GB approach.
Every single lefty in the projected Dodgers lineup – Bellinger, Muncy, Joc, Lux and Seager – has fly ball leans against RHP with Bellinger sporting the starkest difference with a 10% higher FB rate against RHP. To boot – the lefties in this lineup have a .261 combined ISO versus RHP since 2019 with a 47% HC rate.
There is a reason this lineup has a 5.3 IRT tonight which is the highest (or tied for the highest as of this writing) on the slate.
The formula here is relatively simple – take arguably the two best arms on the slate and the best stack on the slate. Seems easy right?
Well this approach leaves you with just barely $2K per player for the last three spots in your build. Yeah – there is the other show you were waiting to drop. (It ain’t all sunshine and puppy farts in DFS folks).
I have made this argument before but MLB DFS hitting is the most variant aspect of DFS and because of that – I have NO issue running out pure punt bats because on any given night – one swing of the bat can crush value.
Looking at the projected lineups tonight – we have TWENTY players projected to start that are $2.2K or less on DK. 2-0.
That is a massive player pool of min-priced options we can sort through in this build with some names you may not expect to see at that range – including guys like Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon.
Speaking of Heyward – one interesting off the wall stack – could be the Cubs here against Jack Flaherty and more specifically the bottom 4 in the order – Heyward, Caratini, Kipnis and Heyward. Now, this is more for giggles – but how often can you find a consecutive four-man stack with a collective .200+ ISO against the handedness of the opposing arm and do it all for under $2.5K collectively?
Now this is not necessarily about picking ON Flaherty, because we know he is an elite arm, but when you consider he has failed to top 90 pitches this season and has only gone 5 IP the last two times out – could we get to the Cardinals bullpen early where we make our cheap bats work?
The Cardinals bullpen ranks among the 5 worst in xFIP/SIERA and is giving up a top 5 mark in opposing HC rate with top 10 marks in runs allowed over the last 14 and 7 days. As our StixPix points out every day in our Matchups Tool – stacking against bullpens can be a great GPP pivot that goes overlooked on a nightly basis.
The path I have outlined here is not meant to be a plug and play idea but it is meant to make you think differently about how you construct on DK.
Step back and think about what you could have – locking in two of the top K arms on the slate, both with demonstrated 30+ DK ceilings – and combining that with arguably the best stack on the slate.
If that core can perform in line with projected expectations – you are going to be sitting pretty in a cash position and then – it comes down to finding 2-3 punts that can differentiate you with hopefully one swing of the bat.
Think different – take risks – it is what we need to do in MLB DFS baseball because variance is king and we have to embrace it!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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