Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
Happy Friday boys and girls, as we open up tonight’s MLB DFS Main Slate we are in the midst of a sports bonanza with NBA and NHL playoffs happening all while Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off. Remember back in March/April when we were playing KBO and Madden Simulations DFS – well this is what we were dreaming about.
I know the focus for many is on NFL right now – and if you are new to Win Daily Sports – check out our FREE Week 1 Primer as we go game by game with our top DFS and Fantasy Football plays.
Now that does not mean we cannot make some money in MLB DFS and this looks like a great slate that frankly, is filled with pivots the longer you dig into it!
When you first open up this slate, at first glance it seems to be a significantly top-heavy pitcher slate with Shane Bieber, Kenta Maeda, Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito all priced $10K or higher on DK. With such elite arms, it seems like the perfect storm to go double-aces – well, until it isn’t.
The Cleveland/Minnesota game was some serious weather issues, looking much like NY did last night as you have 80% plus chance of rain from 8PM on which puts this game window in some serious jeaopardy and would take Bieber/Maeda out of our player pool.
Cole meanwhile is going to be part of the Yankee/Baltimore double header and as such – DraftKings already has a note that these players will not accrue points (would have been nice if they just took them out of the player pool).
All of a sudden you are left with Lucas Giolito ($10.5K) as the last man standing and thankfully he has clear weather and the clear match-up to pay off this tag against Detroit. Giolito has a 34.9% K rate this season and a 18% swinging strike rate and gets a match-up against the team with the highest K rate (29%) against RHP in all of baseball in 2020. Lucas faced this same Tigers team back on August 20th and racked up 43.4 DK points with 13K’s over 7 innings and frankly, I don’t see a strong reason to expect wildly different outcomes today. He is the clear SP1 on this slate.
Locking in Giolito becomes the easy part and frankly, almost a necessity, when you start removing the top-tier arms from the player pool and the rest of the options on this slate are largely underwhelming.
Digging deep – my man Adam Strangis already wrote up Kris Bubic in today’s Starting Rotation, so I will not re-use his punt – but find one of my own in Caleb Smith ($5.9K).
Smith is not only making his debut for a new team after being traded to Arizona, but he is also making his first start since his COVID-19 diagnosis – so yeah 2020 has been a year for this left-hander.
Over the past two seasons, Smith has proven he has the K ability at the Major League level with a 26.3% K rate and 12.4% swinging strike rate over 2018 and 2019 to give us high ceiling DFS performances.
Much like Giolito has the best match-up he could ask for as a righty, Smith has much of the same as the Seattle Mariners strike out at a 26.3% clip against LHP in 2020 which is the third highest in baseball.
Now the concern with Smith is the long layoff, and potential pitch count restrictions after he threw just 70 pitches in his last warm up start – but I think that is largely factored into his price here today on DK under $6K and it offers you the opportunity to get Giolito with an elite game stack – which is frankly the most important part.
Listen, I know we were all watching football last night and maybe we weren’t 100% focused on baseball – but did the DK pricing team have a few too many cold ones and forget to update the pricing on the Angels and Rockies in Coors Field tonight?
Now, I am not talking about the top tier bats – guys like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are all priced up at $5K+ as they should be – but it is that next level down that really opens up this slate for us to stack away.
Looking at the projected lineups for these two teams- the Angles have FIVE batters under $3K in their starting lineup while the Rockies have six batters under $4K here tonight.
What this soft pricing affords you is the rare opportunity to game stack Coors Field, with a a near two touchdown implied total, while also getting the top SP1 on the slate.
On the Rockies side, facing Griffin Canning, you get a match-up against a fly ball pitcher, giving up 43% HC rate and .200+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate since 2019 and while the big boys are going to be the priority – the “value” we get in guys like David Dahl ($2.8K) who is projected to bat lead-off and Daniel Murphy ($3.1K) makes it easy to attack this spot with some serious PP/$ upside.
The Angels will take on German Marquez and much like Colorado, while the big bats of Trout, Rendon and Ohtani are the main attraction – we have some serious value with guys like Matt Thais/Jared Walsh who are in the mid $2K price range while having the option to grab cheap OF’s like Justin Upton or Jo Adell who are both under $3K.
What I love about this game stack is how well these two teams correlate from a position perspective while also giving you the ability to mix and match.
So for example, the Angels stack does not have the high upside SS (sorry Andrelton but for DFS its true), meaning you can stack the Angels and use Trevor Story to fill that need. Conversely, we have a ton of flexibility with multiple starters having dual position eligibility including Ohtani, Fletcher (assuming he is activated), Hampson and Thaiss. Lastly, you have built in pivots at key positions like third base – where you can build essentially the same core and flip Rendon/Arenado in your builds if you are multi-entering.
Stacking Coors is not ever going to be “sneaky” but the pricing today offers us a rare opportunity that I simply do not think we can pass on.
To me this slate starts with Lucas Giolito – because the lack of pitching forces your hand to eat this chalk in a high ceiling spot. I also think the pricing on Coors is going to push you towards LAA/Colorado heavy builds and what that will mean is finding the cheap SP2 you like AND waiting for the Coors lineups so you can mix and match depending on the value that ends up making the lineups.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball and let’s get ready for Week 1 of the NFL season with loads of articles, our new custom projections and our expert chat to start this season off with a bang.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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