MLB DFS

Starting Rotation 5.3

We’re back in action for a 10 game slate on Monday and it’s an interesting slate. We have some studs that aren’t in the most ideal spots and a team’s top pitching prospect making his debut. The mid-range looks questionable as well so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 5.3 and see who we like for this slate to find the green! 

Starting Rotation 5.3 – Main Targets 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DK/$10,800 FD) 

It’s not a very bold statement to say we don’t normally attack the Angels offense, but I’m not sure another pitcher on this slate has the same style of upside that Glasnow does on the slate. It is true that the Angels only whiff 21.2% to righty pitching, which is the third-best mark in baseball. It’s also true that Glasnow has elite stuff and can navigate any offense in the league. Even his worst start against the Blue Jays was still 19 DK and it was one poor inning. Glasnow is sixth in K rate overall at 39.2% and all three of his pitches have a 32.9% whiff rate or higher. The walk rate of 7.7% would be the second-best mark of his career, which is helping the WHIP stay right at 0.80. It’s great for the Angels to be ranked highly against the slider but good luck with this –

Especially when the next pitch can be this one –

Glasnow is carrying a 1.69 ERA into this start and the 1.69 FIP/2.53 xFIP combo would suggest that’s pretty much how he’s pitched so far. Perhaps his best trait after the strikeout upside is hitters are not squaring him up. The barrel rate is under 8% and the hard-hit rate is just 21.1%. That’s when hitters make contact because his 16.6% swinging-strike rate is also sixth in baseball. Neither side of the plate is a weakness for him and I have no real fears about Glasnow even in the matchup. I firmly believe he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and am willing to play him in any format. 

Adam Wainwright ($8,000 DK/$7,200 FD) 

This pick should make for a fun day in Discord as I’m sure Brian won’t have anything to say about me potentially picking on his Mets. I have to point out that Wainwright does need to come off the IL. That is expected, as he’s not tested positive for Covid to this point after a family member tested positive. Waino being the second pitcher in the main write-up also tells you that this SP2 spot could potentially be tricky tonight because this isn’t a pitcher I get along with. Metrics-wise, this spot lines up well for him. It’s in St. Louis which helps right off the hop. The Mets only have two hitters (J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil) who are over a 1.0 rating against the curve. Wainwright has also been better to lefties with a .270 wOBA, .600 OPS, and a 29.5% K rate. The Mets are projected to roll out five and the pitcher’s spot, so keep an eye on the opposing lineup. This is from late last season, but my goodness this is the perfect illustrator of what the curve does when the bender is on point –

I also like the Mets ranking sixth in ground ball rate to this point, as Waino generates a ground ball rate of 45.7%. His 11.4% swinging-strike rate would be the best of his career, as would the 31.6% CSW. The curve is really the key to his arsenal. It has a 37.2% whiff rate and the cutter has actually been quite poor with a .457 slugging and .450 wOBA allowed so far. That’s always a little worrisome because if the feel for the curve isn’t there, this could get ugly. Still, what we have to go on is what’s on paper, and the Mets whiff almost 24% of the time to righty pitching. 

Shohei Ohtani ($7,600 DK/$8,900 FD)

Ohtani may not wind up being an option for us, as he was hit by a pitch yesterday and the elbow is sore. If he starts, I’m playing him. DK still has him under $8,000 and he’s going to have a start sooner or later that could break the slate. In his last two starts, he’s scored 18 and 21 DK points. In the last start, he gave up four runs and only threw 75 pitches, and still crossed 21 DK points. When he’s allowed to throw more pitches and he figures things out as far as control, 30 DK is honestly not out of the question. If he qualified, his 37.1% K rate would be seventh in all of baseball. Yes, he’s walking an insane amount of hitters at 21% and yet the WHIP is only 1.39. I’ve seen some folks dismiss Ohtani on the mound and I don’t think they realize how close he could be for a massive score. The 12.6% swinging-strike rate is more than enough and the 30% CSW is nothing to sneer at either. 

My largest concern is the splits as Ohtani is worse to lefty hitters, with a 26.5% K rate and a .322 wOBA allowed. I still believe in him and one of the main reasons is the splitter. Check out this feature from mlb.com to read up more on it.

When he pitched in 2018, the pitch gave up a .036 average across 59 plate appearances. In 20 PA this season, it has not given up a single hit and has an absurd 73.9% whiff rate. That’s not a typo. That pitch also has 18 of his 23 strikeouts, so to say it’s his putaway pitch is an understatement. The salary is simply too low for the upside, as he’s demonstrated the past two starts while not even pitching all that well. 

Daniel Lynch ($4,000 DK) 

To the surprise of literally nobody, FD doesn’t know that Lynch is a person yet. They really need to hire someone who has even a slight knowledge of MLB prospects. I’m going to be interested to see if the masses flock to Lynch and I lean yes. Listen, rookie pitchers with no innings above A+ ball can be a bit of a mystery bag. There’s no guarantee how he reacts to his first big league action. What we know is he’s $4,000. There are SEVENTY hitters more expensive than him. As long as he scores 6-8 DK, it could be relatively worth it with a Coors Field game. Playing Glasnow and Lynch together leaves you $4,462 per hitter. Talk about playing whoever you want. 

Oh, and did I mention this isn’t just some pitcher who’s looking for a cup of coffee in the majors? Lynch is the 24th ranked prospect in all of baseball, according to MLBPipeline.com. Baseball America has him ranked as number seven for pitchers and 21st overall. He’s a 6’6″ lefty that is sitting roughly 95 MPH on his fastball and he can crank it up to 99 MPH. He backs that up with a very good slider, a curve, and a developing changeup. Cleveland may only whiff 20.2% of the time to lefties but it’s not like we need insane strikeout upside here. The only category they aren’t in the bottom 10 offensively is ISO, which also encourages me. I’m hoping to get a better look at him through the day and will add anything that comes up. I’m ready to play him in all formats. 

Starting Rotation 5.3 – In Play 

Walker Buehler – With a $4,000 pitcher I feel like my pool is going to be fairly concentrated tonight. For the most part, if Lynch kills me then so be it. It’s going to be hard to ruin too many lineups as long as he stays in the positives. Anyways, Buehler is always in play and he’s always one of my least favorites to actually use. I can’t explain it but he always burns me no matter my decision. He’s really talented, with a 25.4% K rate and both the FIP/xFIP are 3.30 or under. The barrel rate isn’t exceptional at over 12% but the Cubs are whiffing almost 29% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. They should also have five RHH and the pitcher’s spot, and Buehler is holding righties to a .200 wOBA and .194 average. Lefties are getting him for a .371 wOBA and a 2.08 HR/9. I’m likely to stay clear of this spot and perhaps use a Cubs lefty as a one-off, like Anthony Rizzo. 

Aaron Civale – Well in play, though I’m not sure how much I love paying most of the way up for pitchers with a K rate of 20.5%. What we do like is the 52.8% ground ball rate from Civale, although that aspect of the matchup could be tough. Kansas City is fourth in ground ball rate at just 39% and only six teams reside under 40%. Civale’s swinging-strike rate is back under 10% after clipping double-digits last season, along with just a 24.4% CSW. He’s not throwing any pitch over 27.1%m which is the four-seam so he can keep hitters off-balance. The 2.89 FIP and 23.7% K rate to righties could serve him well against the Royals, it’s just not a spot I’m overly excited about with the Royals having the sixth-best K rate to RHP, even when the pitcher can do this –

Steven Matz – He’s coming off a bad start but it’s interesting to note that only one hit was for extra bases, a three-run home run. The BABIP for that game was .438 and the previous high was .286 so I don’t think we get a repeat. The hard-hit rate would suggest that’s accurate since it’s only at 24%. One of the bigger concerns in his profile is the O-Contact%, which is how many times a hitter makes contact with a pitch out of the zone. It’s sitting at 49.2% so far when the career rate is 65.5%. Oakland is a powerful offense to lefty pitching with the third-ranked ISO but they also have the 15th OPS and the 23rd OBP. With a K rate over 25%, Matz has room for another solid game here. Interestingly, he’s been better on the road with how small the Jays “home” park is playing. The road ERA is only 2.60 through 17.1 IP so far, and it’ll be interesting to see if that continues for Matz. 

German Marquez – He wouldn’t be a main play, but I wouldn’t take him totally out of the pool. Surprisingly, Marquez has just a 3.13 ERA over 23 IP at home so far this season. Both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.90 as well, which deserves attention. Lefties have always crushed him but this is fascinating because across 57 lefty batters faced, Marquez has allowed a .255 wOBA and zero home runs. San Francisco is 18th or worse to his three main pitches and the swinging-strike rate is 12.6%, exactly in line with his past four seasons. You could honestly do worse. 

Dane Dunning – One of the first metrics I look at is how a pitcher does against righties when they play the Twins. The main power bats are righty and Dunning has struggled to that side of the plate a bit with a .314 average and a .315 wOBA but the BABIP to that side is .429. The K rate is higher at 28.3% and the FIP/xFIP is 2.18/2.12. Minnesota now has four lefties in the normal lineup and Dunning is sporting a ground ball rate of almost 51%. 83% of his pitches are four-seams or sliders and while the Twins are fourth against the fastball, they are 25th against the slider. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dunning have a solid game here, even though I likely don’t play him myself. 

Starting Rotation 5.3 – Out of Play

Dinelson Lamet – I’ve never been as angry as I am typing Lamet is out of play, but I’m struggling to see any reason to play him. If he was healthy, he’d be my number one pitcher on the board tonight. The issue is he had a UCL “strain” last year. Ok, fine. Lamet opted for rehab as the treatment, worked back, and pitched dominantly for two innings…before being removed for forearm tightness. Look, we certainly don’t know better than the Padre’s doctors. Fernando Tatis has proven that beyond doubt. Lamet is still full price and has all of two innings under his belt since hurting his UCL, which is the most “important” ligament in the elbow for pitchers. For those who may not know, that’s the ligament that relates to Tommy John surgery. There are just zero reasons to go after him unless you want 5% exposure in MME formats (100+ lineups). 

Adrian Houser – Playing Houser after a random seven strikeout game feels like chasing our tails, in honesty. Philly may strike out at a top 10 rate to RHP at 25.8% but still, Houser hasn’t even hit 19% for his K rate this season. He also only has one season over 20% which looks out of place against the rest of his career. If he qualified, his 59.7% ground ball rate would rank second in the majors but at his current salary, we do need more than ground balls to make it work. The swinging-strike rate is putrid at 6.5% and his highest whiff rate pitch is the slider, at 20%. He throws it just 7.7% of the time. 

Frankie Montas – Can I just start saying “he pitches against Toronto” and be done with it? If the said pitcher is not the absolute elite, I’m just not going to go after the Jays. I’m a Montas fan but you can’t argue that he’s elite. The K rate is under 22%, the FIP is 5.20, the HR/9 is 2.19, and the barrel rate is 14.8%. He’s also getting mauled by righties with a .421 wOBA, .313 average, 3.38 HR/9, and a puny 9.6% K rate. Give me all the Vlad Jr. and the righties from Toronto. 

Kenta Maeda – I’d love to say I had confidence in this being the get-right spot for Maeda and perhaps that happens. Texas does whiff at the highest rate to RHP and is the only team over 30% in that metric. However, they are also top-five against the slider and that’s the main pitch for Maeda. The bigger issue is that pitch is getting clobbered with a .386 average, .773 slugging, and .513 wOBA allowed so far. It’s also allowed four homers and the Rangers have two of the top 30 slider hitters in baseball, Adolis Garcia and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The K rate is under 18%, the FIP is 6.18, and the lefties have a .472 wOBA and a 2.92 HR/9. You’d have to be gutsy to use him by the metrics of this season. 

Aaron Sanchez – Sure, the Rockies lineup isn’t as dangerous as it used to be but Sanchez is still out for me. He’s capped at right about 80 pitches, is heading to Coors Field, and has only a 20% K rate. The 60.3% ground ball rate would lead the league if he qualified, which is nice for Coors. My issue is if we risk it for the biscuit in that environment, I want upside. Sanchez simply hasn’t given us a reason to suspect he has that. 

Vince Velasquez – I was honestly sort of tempted when I saw he’d face the Brewers but those hopes were dashed. Milwaukee is the third-ranked team against fastballs and Vinnie Velo is over 56% in usage on that particular pitch. It’s not fooling anyone with a .429 wOBA and a .565 slugging. Velasquez also has a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.10, a HR/9 of 2.92, a walk rate of 18.3%, and a fly ball rate over 51%. I can’t look past those many factors to get to his 30% K rate. 

Tyler Anderson – I’ve played him a few times this year, as the ERA is 3.38 and the 3.51 FIP says it’s pretty accurate. Anderson is throwing his cutter about 10% more and the wOBA on it has dropped by about 100 points to .273. The swinging-strike rate is 14% which is easily the career-high and the overall swing rate from opposing batters has jumped from 45.6% last year to 53.3% this year. The sad part is the Padres are a very tough matchup and can load up with RHH, as there should be at least five. Anderson has a .317 wOBA and a 1.35 HR/9 against that side of the plate so we’ll wait for his next turn. 

Kyle Hendricks – The Dodgers are one of the prime stacks of the night. Hendricks is sitting under 87 MPH on his sinker and four-seam and the latter is getting obliterated with a .500 average and .648 wOBA. The HR/9 is 3.97 and the FIP is 8.30. His swinging-strike rate is down 3% to just 8.8% and lefties absolutely are destroying him with a .485 average, .617 wOBA, 6.00 HR/9, and an 11.26 FIP. It’s scary to see a 90.9% strand rate to lefties because things could be even worse results-wise. 

Joey Lucchesi – If we were starved for value, I could possibly see it since the 6.75 ERA doesn’t jive with the 1.47 FIP. I will also say that the 37% K rate to righties through 27 hitters faced catches your eye, but the Cardinals are likely going to have a full lineup of righties. They are above average in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OBP, and average. Six of eight hitters for the Cards have an ISO over .210 against righty fastballs, a pitch Lucchesi is throwing about 37% of the time. 

Dean Kremer – No, he likely doesn’t suffer from a .455 BABIP all year but the FIP is still 5.36 which is an issue. The HR/9 is 2.40 and the swinging-strike rate is under 10%. Both sides of the plate are over a .430 wOBA so it’s tough to construct a case for him here. 

Erik Swanson – We’ve seen 67.2 IP in the majors for him and he’s totaled a 2.66 HR/9, a 6.06 FIP, 11.6% barrel rate, 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a hard-hit rate over 35%. Lefties have got the better of him with a .363 wOBA and 2.97 HR/9. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.2

It’s Sunday and that means that this MLB slate can be a little wonky since some teams will utilize “Sunday lineups” and play some of their bench players. There are times when that can change how we feel about matchups but we’ll talk about things in the article as everyone is playing a normal lineup. There are 20 pitchers to get to for the day so let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 5.2 and set our foundation! 

Starting Rotation 5.2 – Main Targets 

Note – As of now, the Brewers have not announced a starter. It would be Corbin Burnes if he clears health protocols. If he does start, he’d be a top option for Starting Rotation 5.2 even against the Dodgers. The timeline wouldn’t fit him having Covid so we should feel comfortable if he takes the mound.

Max Scherzer ($9,700 DK/$12,000 FD) 

Over on DK, I would be stunned if Scherzer is not projected as the chalkiest pitcher on the slate. He’s under $10,000 which I think we can be sure has rarely happened these past few years. On FD, I think it’s a much livelier debate because there are some signs that Scherzer could be slowing down just a little bit. He’s only thrown 30 innings but the hard-hit rate is 40.8% and the career number has never been above 35.7%. Likewise, the fly ball rate is over 57% and the highest it has ever been is 47.9%. Hitters are squaring him up as well more frequently with a 12.7% barrel rate. Even the splits are weird as RHH have a .349 wOBA with a 3.14 HR/9. When metrics are this far out of whack, I turn to the pitch mix. 

There is a pitch that sticks out as the exact culprit. His four-seam is down about 1 MPH and he’s given up three bombs but he gave up seven last season across 62.1 IP. That’s right about the same ratio. The average, slugging, and wOBA are all better this season so far as well. Then we get to the slider, which has been an issue. It’s given up two home runs, compared to zero last season. The average is up but the slugging is .455 compared to .167 and the wOBA is .304 compared to .176. The whiff rate is about the exact same so it’s still a good pitch, but the Marlins do rate well against it so far. 

It’s not all bad, as Scherzer is at a 15.1% swinging-strike rate, which is 10th in baseball. He’s still got the goods more often than not –

Miami is also 10th in ground ball rate to righties so hopefully that limits some of Scherzer’s fly ball tendencies. One of the best ways for Scherzer to get back on track (so to speak) is to throw more first-pitch strikes. His career rate is 64.2% and this season is 58.6%, the lowest since his rookie season. It would help if hitters swung at more pitches outside of the zone too. His O-Swing% is down from 33% last year to 29.7%. That’s a sizable jump and I would bet the slider is hurting those ratios as well. The bottom line is Scherzer is still a great pitcher, but it could be time to temper expectations just a bit. I’m eating the chalk in cash and probably even single entry, but past that I don’t think it’s a bad play to get different. 

Lucas Giolito ($8,600 DK/$10,600 FD) 

Giolito is coming off a mediocre start but I have to put the blame almost entirely on manager Tony LaRussa. He came out for the seventh inning at 89 pitches and things seemed great. He then issued a walk on eight pitches, got a flyout on nine pitches, and then gave up a double. Most managers would be ready with the hook. The next pitch was dong and then LaRussa let him face two more hitters. There were zero reasons to let him go 114 pitches after being off the mound for over a week. He was mostly back to normal as it was and now gets a fantastic pitch data spot. 

It doesn’t hurt that Giolito is under $9,000 on DK and the xFIP is 3.16 compared to the 5.68 ERA. He’s also generating a swinging-strike rate of 14.6% so his stuff is working for the most part outside of the Boston start. Cleveland should send six lefties to the plate and that should work best for Giolito with a .250 wOBA, .192 average, 32.8% K rate, and a 2.56 FIP to that side of the plate. The changeup is still elite –

This might be the easiest it ever is to play Scherzer and Giolito together and we could be looking at 60 DK points if things go well for each pitcher in the Starting Rotation 5.2. 

Trevor Rogers ($7,900 DK/$10,200 FD)

Even though the matchup is on the tougher side, I can’t fathom why DK dropped Rogers in salary by $500 after scoring 27.9 DK points. Washington has the sixth-fewest plate appearances to lefties so far but they have done some serious work. They are top three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Even though they are 13th in ISO, that’s not enough to knock Washington off the perch of an elite offense to lefties so far. The K rate is only 21.3% but Rogers sports a 34.9% K rate himself. He’s also given up just one barrel on the season across 109 batters faced, which is wildly impressive. 

Rogers has smoked the right side of the plate for a .217 wOBA, .156 average, a 35.6% K rate, and a 2.00 FIP. His four-seam has picked up velocity to 95 MPH on average with 28 of 38 strikeouts. It’s also going to help that Juan Soto is out of the lineup. He’s the second-highest ranked fastball hitter on the team and without him, Washington is 20th. I wouldn’t go there in cash but if the top two come in super popular, Rogers is a very legitimate pivot in GPP. I always tend to side with pitching ahead of offenses when said pitching can do this –

Tyler Mahle ($7,800 DK/$9,300 FD) 

Mahle is another pitcher that cannot be ignored on this slate at this price point. He may be putting things together with a 2.80 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and a 1.75 ERA. On top of that, Mahle is sporting a 35.3% K rate with a 0.97 WHIP. There is a bit of a concern with the fly ball rate at 48.1% because of his HR.FB rate is 8%, which would easily be a career-low. With the Cubbies striking out over 29% of the time to righties, Mahle can get by if they aren’t making any contact. The four-seam is the key to success with a .146 average, .250 slugging, and a .260 wOBA. It’s also racked up 22 of 36 strikeouts with a 31.4% whiff rate. Even last year you could see how good the individual pitch was –

The top three fastball hitters for the Cubs are Kris Bryant, Jason Hayward, and Willson Contreras. After that, there is a steep drop in hitters that should worry us. Chicago can put out five righties, which could pose a small issue as they have a .365 wOBA but four of those five also whiff over 22% of the time and Javier Baez is pushing 40%. At the end of the day, the xFIP to both sides is under 3.70 so I’m not sweating things too much. Mahle isn’t the most trustworthy based on track record, but he shouldn’t be this cheap either. 

Starting Rotation 5.2 – In Play 

Christian Javier – Really, the only reason Javier didn’t get a full write-up is because of the salaries of Scherzer and Giolito. In a vacuum, Javier has been lights out through four starts with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.72 FIP. He’s yet to allow a home run and the K rate is 32.9%. The WHIP is 0.82 and his hard-hit rate is just 24.4%. The slider is super interesting. I mean, he got a swing on this one and it didn’t make it to the plate –

It’s jumped from 78.6 MPH on average last year to 81.2 MPH this year and it’s been pure filth. The whiff rate is 50% and it’s yielded a .050 average. Tampa is 28th against the slider which could set him up for a great start. The small concern is Javier is worse to lefties, as the wOBA is just .270 but the FIP is 2.38. His K rate drops to 25% but the Rays are 12th in K rate at 25.1%. 

Julio Urias – Call me crazy, but he’s the clear fourth option among the top four pitchers in salary (not counting Burnes, in which case Urias would be fifth). The talent is unmistakable but the results have been… not that great in three of five starts. In those three, Urias has scored under 14 DK points and given up a total of 10 earned runs. In his great starts, he’s given up just one with 17 strikeouts like this one –

The K rate for Urias is solid at 26.2% but not overwhelming compared to the other options up top. Milwaukee can bring out the best in strikeout upside to opposing pitchers but I definitely prefer others today. 

Jose Berrios – Someone with the talent level of Berrios is always in play, along with his 32.4% K rate, 10.9% swinging-strike rate, and 28.9% CSW. The Royals are 14th against the curve, which is the most-used pitch for Berrios. They also whiff only 23.6% of the time so there’s some question about his ceiling. I do really like the .194 wOBA, .156 average, no home runs allowed, 36% K rate, and 1.54 FIP to the right side of the plate. After three straight very average starts, I would imagine Berrios is not going to be popular at all today. 

Corey Kluber – I’m not personally playing him, but the spot can’t line up much better for him. The Tigers whiff at a top-two rate of 28.5% and Kluber sets up extremely well to the likely six lefties Detroit will use. He has a 24.4% K rate to that side of the plate and a .279 wOBA compared to a .419 mark to RHH. He’s leaning on a curve/cutter mix as his top two pitches and Detroit is 25th and 29th against those two pitches. He also generated 17 swings and misses last start, which is eye-opening. It’s a scary play and I would find the $500 for Giolito in 98/100 lineups, but with how Kluber stacks up against the weaknesses of the Tigers’ offense, I can’t take him off the board. 

Starting Rotation 5.2 – Out of Play 

Ian Anderson – I’m not thrilled but I would reluctantly leave Anderson out of the pool today. As long as the Jays are healthy, you can get used to the opposing pitcher not being in play. Anderson sports a 26.5% K rate which is fine, but not enough to warrant attacking Toronto in a hitter’s park. They were right about top 12 in OPS, ISO, slugging, and wOBA before George Springer came back. Perhaps Anderson can survive with his .218 wOBA to righties but I won’t be finding out myself. 

Zach Plesac – It has been tough sledding for Plesac this year with just a 16.5% K rate on the season. It continues a trend where it appears the 2020 season was an aberration instead of the normal we should expect from him. The swinging-strike rate is down to 11.4% and even though he’s likely better than the 5.81 ERA (the 4.02 FIP and 3.83 xFIP look much better), I’m still not interested in a K rate that’s not over 17%. I will say his 52.9% ground ball rate could come into play heavily since the Sox lead the league in ground ball rate to righties. 

Ross Stripling – He’s not confirmed for the Jays at this point and he will likely be on a fairly limited pitch count, which makes him an easy fade for Rogers and possibly Mahle. 

Rich Hill – Mr. Hill was not nice to me last time out as I stacked A’s hitters and he whiffed 10. The start before that, Hill was terrible when I played him. This time, I’m on the side of stacking against him again. Houston is top-four against the fastball and Hill throws it over 41% of the time. That pitch has a .345 average, .759 slugging, and a .466 wOBA given up with just a 19.6% whiff rate. If the curve doesn’t do a lot of the work, the Astros should handle Hill and his 3.55 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 to righty hitters. 

Garrett Richards – Chasing a 33 DK point game from a pitcher that has a 20.2% K rate, a 1.61 WHIP, and an 11.9% walk rate seems like a terrible idea. The Rangers strike out an awful lot but I simply can’t do it. Richards needs to show something else for me to buy into anything. 

Carlos Martinez – He’s fine I suppose but just not the sale of pitcher that I play. The K rate is just 14.4% and perhaps his best metric is the lefty splits. LHH have a .244 wOBA and Martinez has a 2.34 FIP to that side of the plate. He is also generating a hard contact rate under 30% but when a pitcher heavily relies on run prevention and not strikeouts, things can go south in a hurry. 

Trevor Williams – He’s a righty who is throwing a fastball almost 60% of the time and it’s not overwhelming at 91 MPH. It’s giving up a .295 average, .371 wOBA, and a .461 slugging. Oh, the Reds are the top fastball team in the league. Both sides of the plate are over .300 for the wOBA and I’m out on Williams. 

Mike Foltynewicz – Sorry Stix. You’re a goat but I can’t do it against Boston. Folty has a 4.23 xFIP but the 2.63 HR/9, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 12.2% barrel rate just don’t compute here. 

Brad Keller – He has a 5.07 FIP, 5.17 xFIP, a 2.1% K-BB%, a massive 2.28 WHIP, and an 8.6% swinging-strike rate. Sporting a .465 wOBA to the righties when you’re facing the righty-heavy Twins seems like a terrible idea. 

Will Crowe – There’s only a 13 inning sample size but Crowe has a 3.46 HR/9, a 1.5 K-BB%, 2.38 WHIP, and a 6.49 xFIP. No thank you. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.1

The Saturday slate is split up as usual and DK has the better game selection for the afternoon slate, which is pretty normal. We’ll be doing the notes-based approach to the afternoon slate and then diving more in-depth into the six-game evening slate. With a total of 22 pitchers from start to finish, let’s get rolling on Starting Rotation 5.1 and start laying our foundation for success! 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – Afternoon Options 

In Play 

Lance Lynn – There is always some small concern in the back of my mind when pitchers come back from arm injuries. Now, it does help that in Lynn’s case that he could have returned right away after the minimum 10-day stint on the IL so I don’t believe there is reason to worry much. Lynn uses a variety of fastballs and Cleveland is 23rd against four-seams, which is the most-used pitch from Lynn. Even though it’s last year, it’s still fun to watch –

I don’t fully buy into Lynn’s 35.1% K rate but even last year’s 25.9% isn’t a terrible number. The hard-hit rate is only 22.9% for Lynn and the splits are pretty even to each side of the plate. He’s easily the best “on paper” option on DK since Cleveland whiffs 25.7% of the time, while FD offers an alternative in Jack Flaherty. Given the difference in salary, I expect Flaherty to be much more popular on that site. 

Danny Duffy – So the matchup is certainly less than ideal but Duffy has been so good that I don’t think I could leave him out of the pool. Minnesota is still whiffing 25.1% to lefty pitching and Duffy has a 29.7% K rate on the season. He’s throwing the fastball more and it’s picked up velocity, sitting at just about 94 MPH. In total, 15 of his 24 strikeouts have come from that pitch and even though the Twins are fourth against that pitch, Duffy could still handle the lineup. They are 27th against the slider, which could help Duffy keep them off-balance. He’s also been at his best to RHH with a .228 wOBA but I would only use him in GPP since the Twins are built to be lefty mashers. 

Jesus Luzardo – He did just face this team and posted a very respectable start, and the Orioles statistically do not look imposing to lefty pitching. They’re top 10 in K rate and below average in our offensive categories. It’s also interesting to note that the Orioles are the worst team against the changeup. Luzardo doesn’t throw it a ton at just 18.6% but it’s sporting the best wOBA allowed of any pitch, under .250. The 26.1% K rate is nice for this salary range and his xFIP is only 4.05 compared to a 5.40 ERA. The .343 BABIP certainly looks out of place for him. Through his 15.2 IP at home, the ERA is only 4.02 and his K rate shoots up to 29.9%. Certainly, it’s not a large sample but it’s interesting to see if that continues. 

Jameson Taillon – I find myself gravitating towards him. The ERA will freak you out at 6.23 but the 3.78 xFIP shows there is a fairly large gap between performance so far and the results. The BABIP is .348 and the fly ball rate is 52% but the K rate is 28.4% and the walk rate is just 2.7%. We all were reminded last night how the Tigers are strikeout machines.

The wOBA to LHH looks like a major sticking point at .399 since the Tigers can throw out six lefties. However, the BABIP to that side is .474 and the xFIP is 2.85. Even better for Taillon is the 33.3% K rate to that side of the plate. It’s not a perfect play but the upside is palpable and this is the easiest matchup the righty has had thus far. 

Matt Harvey – We’ll stick right in this game and it could be time to get on board the Matt Harvey Train again. You’re not likely to get a lot of strikeouts but Harvey is throwing a four-seam/sinker combo about 62% of the time. Oakland is 25th against the fastball this season and should trot out six RHH. If you remember the last time we had Harvey, the wOBA looks awful at .363 to that side of the plate but the BABIP is .400. The FIP of 2.96 and xFIP of 3.36 tell a different story. The K rate also jumps up to 21.1% and Oakland is pushing 25% as a team in whiff rate. The true factor will never be there with Harvey at this point, but the metrics make sense again. 

Jose Urquidy – He’s frankly not super interesting to me at his salary but on a short slate he’s certainly in play. Urquidy is using the fastball/slider combo at about 77% of the time so far but only getting a 19.5% K rate. Tampa has almost a 25% K rate and is right in the middle of the league in the offensive categories. With Urquidy leaning on the fastball 55% of the time, it’s not great to see Tampa in the top-eight against that pitch. To his advantage, LHH have struggled so far with a .278 wOBA, .209 average, and a 24.5% K rate. I likely end up elsewhere but the matchup could certainly be a lot worse. 

Out of Play 

Josh Fleming – Much like Ryan Yarbrough last night, I just don’t like playing lefties when the Astros offense is healthy as they are right now. Maybe Fleming gets through this game with his ground ball rate of 56.8% but the 13.8% K rate doesn’t offer much comfort. The 4.44 xFIP compared to the 1.23 ERA doesn’t scream he’s a play we should like either, frankly. Houston is fifth against the fastball and Fleming is using it about 48% of the time. I’ll give the lefty credit for generating a .211 wOBA to righties but that could end in a hurry today. 

Spencer Turnbull – The Yankee hitters are waking up quickly, so I won’t go there myself. The fly ball tendencies (48.1%) are scary although I do have to say Turnbull has always been better to RHH, and that’s the case early. They have a .168 wOBA compared to the .311 wOBA for the lefties. 

Triston McKenzie – I really want to put him in play because I think the talent level is excellent, but the metrics simply won’t allow it at this point. I’ll put the caveat that things could change for him quickly but he’s been a bit of a mess so far this season. The FIP/xFIP combo are both over 5.10, the HR/9 is 2.16 and the walk rate is unreal at 18.9%. The fly balls have to really worry you at 61.1% but there are a couple of things that could save him. First, the White Sox continue to lead the league in ground ball rate to righty pitching and they lead by 4.1%. It’s not a close race right now. 

Secondly, despite some pretty apparent struggles, McKenzie does have a K rate over 31% and the swinging strike rate is 13.3%, up from last season. The biggest issue so far is the fastball. It has a .402 wOBA and a .487 slugging allowed. It’s down to 91 MPH but McKenzie also has 13 strikeouts with it. Chicago is eighth against the fastball, which is tough for McKenzie. He does have a .249 wOBA to RHH (and a .485 mark to LHH) so I don’t think I’d play him. It is not the easiest call because things could change for him very quickly. At some point, pitchers with stuff like this tend to figure it out and the K rate beckons –

Luis Castillo – It will bite me on a slate, but I refuse to play Castillo until we see some sign of life from him. The sinker continues to just get obliterated with a .500 average, .885 slugging, and a .611 wOBA. You can’t trust a pitcher who throws that pitch almost 22% of the time. The wOBA for the Chicago lineup against righty sinkers isn’t exactly encouraging for him either. 

Matt Shoemaker – There’s nothing good to be had about his 5.11 xFIP, 2.29 HR/9, 16.1% K rate, and the 9.7% swinging-strike rate. My lone fear about playing Royals is Shoemaker has controlled RHH to the tune of a .231 wOBA and a 0.79 HR/9. Even then, the BABIP to that side is .161 and the xFIP is 5.01. 

Patrick Corbin – He has one good start out of four and is still sporting an 8.36 FIP, 17.1% K rate, and a 12.2% walk rate. RHH are tagging him for a .505 wOBA, 1.200+ OPS, 4.50 HR/9, and a 10.17 FIP. I’ll head right back to some Marlins hitters. 

Paul Campbell – He’s likely limited to 3-4 innings by all accounts, which isn’t great. My larger issue is the fact that he’s never had a K rate above 20.5% once he’s hit A-level baseball. That doesn’t lead me to think we should take the chance, even at the salary. 

Zach Davies – He rolls into this start with (still) more walks than strikeouts, a 6.24 xFIP, a 7.3% swinging-strike rate, and a fastball that’s under 88 MPH. No thank you, and if he beats me, he beats me on this one. 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – Main Slate 

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,700 DK/$9,500 FD)

We have a fun slate for pitching at the top where there’s not an “ace” in the exact sense, but quite a few starters that could produce ace-level stats. For me, it’s starting with E-Rod and I assumed he’d be over $9,000 in this spot. The face DK hasn’t put him up there helps us out, since he gets to face the Rangers. They sit 12th in K rate to lefty pitching and are bottom-six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. E-Rod is pitching to a 29.2% K rate with just a 2.2% walk rate, which is quite impressive. He’s 13th in K-BB% (and we have one pitcher higher in that metric on this slate) and is keeping the hard contact under 25%. If Rodriguez kept these metrics up for the season, it would be a career year for him. The xFIP has never been below 3.90 for him and right now it’s sitting at 2.82. Price included on DK, he’s my favorite option. 

Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK/$9,000 FD

Gallen is really nipping at the heels of E-Rod for my favorite option on the slate and he may have found his rhythm last start, posting 34 DK points against the Braves offense. He’s crazy talented and has a 0.54 HR/9 through his first 16.2 IP to go with a 29.9% K rate. The walk rate is high at 11.9% but coming off an injury I’m no overly worked up about that. The 12.5% swinging-strike rate is dead in line with his career average and Gallen has been throwing the fastball more this season. 

In 2020, the four-seam was only thrown 39% and so far in 2021, it’s at 51%. I can’t blame him since it has half of his 20 strikeouts and just a .130 slug, .218 wOBA, and a 27.5% whiff rate.

To the surprise of nobody, the Rockies offense continues to be hideous on the road to righties. They’re whiffing at a top-six rate of 28.4% and are bottom 10 in our offensive categories. Both sides of the plate are at a .223 wOBA or lower and Gallen could be the most popular option on the slate. Pairing him with Rodriguez already looks like a ton of fun. 

Dustin May ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD)

It may give some pause to see the Brewers ranked so high against the fastball but not too many move like this –

I will also admit to some bats here – I’ve always been on the wrong end of May. If I fade him, he scores 29.7 DK points and whiffs 10. If I play him, he scores 13 against the Rockies in LA. Still, he is higher than E-Rod in K-BB% and sits sixth in the majors in that category. May is also ninth in total K rate at 37.2%. That’s a monstrous jump from the 19.6% last year but his stuff is so nasty, I’m inclined to think it’s a real jump. The swinging-strike rate going from 8.4% to 14.1% would back me up on that as well. Milwaukee sitting as a top-five K rate team to RHP seems like just the right spot for May to continue his K rate prowess. 

Looking at that pitch mix gives us some ideas about why May has exploded in K rate. He’s throwing the sinker 11% less and he bumped the curve usage by about 9%. That curve has been filth with 14 strikeouts (no other pitch has more than seven), no hits allowed, and a 46.2% whiff rate.

Seeing the Brewers rank next to last against that pitch is heaven. The Crew might throw out five lefties and that’s just going to play into May’s strength as he sports a 45.5% K rate to that side. Like I said, the top of the pitching pool tonight is a blast. 

Brandon Woodruff ($10,100 DK/$9,200 FD)

Oh, look, we have Woodruff on the slate as well! He’s sitting 11th in xFIP at 2.87 and the funny part of that is, that mark is still the third-worst on the slate behind E-Rod and May. Woodruff has not allowed a homer yet and has a 1.5% barrel rate, second-best in baseball. Not surprisingly, the hard-hit rate is 27.7% and his K rate has sustained over 31% like it did last season. It needs to be said that the Dodgers haven’t exactly been scary yet either, at least offensively. They rank 23rd in OPS, 25th in ISO, 21st in WOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. Woodruff also has 98 MPH heat on the black of the plate –

The lineup is much more talented than that but Woodruff is no slouch. Neither side of the plate sits above a .180 wOBA or a .149 average, which is exactly what you want to see. The K rate for the Dodgers is only 22.9% but Woodruff is more than capable of getting through this lineup. I wonder if the DK salary keeps him fourth out of the big four. If that’s the case, we have to pay attention in GPP especially. 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – In Play 

Griffin Canning – It seems odd that he lands here, but the metrics are fascinating. The ERA is 8.40 but the xFIP is 3.78, which is just an absurd gap. His HR/FB rate is an astonishing 35.3% and his career rate for context is 14.4%. The hard contact is 25.6% and he’s got the fly ball rate under 40%. Canning has never posted a K rate higher than the 25.8% he’s sitting at, nor has he been all that close to a swinging-strike rate over 15%. He’s throwing the slider almost 41% of the time and recording a 43.9% whiff rate on it. Something has to give here, but don’t play him in anything but GPP. 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – Out of Play 

Blake Snell – You can make a case that he’s in play but I will disagree when he’s more expensive than Gallen and E-Rod. Is Snell talented? You bet. Will he ever pitch six innings again? That’s sort of a question, as he’s yet to achieve that feat once this year. The 33% K rate is excellent but the 12.8% walk rate is ninth in baseball. Not only does that dock points, but it also drives up the pitch count and Snell hasn’t thrown more than 95 pitches this season. The Giants are 0.1% away from leading the league in walk rate to lefties and are top 12 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, and wOBA. 

Charlie Morton – With Toronto sitting just 19th in K rate and healthy, finding the ceiling for Morton is going to be tough. Pitching in the Blue Jays “home” stadium doesn’t do anyone any favors either. Even scarier for Morton would be if his splits continue in this one. RHH have a .315 wOBA which is the worse side of the plate. The Jays are also 19th in ground ball rate, which could negate one of Morton’s strengths. 

Anthony DeSclafani – I guess technically Tony Disco is “in play” but I can’t fathom not finding a few hundred more for Gallen or E-Rod. The Padres are not the Rockies on the road, so the matchup is a lot tougher. He’s started five games and almost a full third of his 30 strikeouts came against the Rockies in the last start. DeSclafani is another player who has only been over 90 pitches twice all season, which is a small concern. I do have to give him the .162 wOBA, .119 average, and zero home runs given up to righties. That’s what I’d prefer when facing the Padres but I will still happily play the other two pitchers, even in GPP. 

Austin Gomber – He’s leading baseball in walk rate at over 18% and Arizona is first in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging to lefties while walking the most and striking out the sixth-least. 

Jordan Lyles – We don’t play 6.09 FIP’s, 18.5% K rates, 2.63 HR/9, and 40.7% hard-hit rates. 

Ljay Newsome – He’s not thrown more than 54 pitches, so you’d have to expect 70-75 is the limit. While he’s pitched well out of the bullpen, starting is totally different. I’m intrigued by the 24.4% K rate but not enough to take the risk when the Angels are on the other side. 

Tommy Milone – His last three appearances have been 2.1 IP, 2.1 IP, and 1 IP. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.28

We get another double-digit slate tonight with 10 games and one very clear-cut ace at the top. Things get pretty fun after that as we have some pitchers in fantastic spots at some good salaries, which is always what we’re looking for. We have plenty of work ahead of us in the Starting Rotation 4.28 so let’s get to work laying the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 4.28 – Main Targets 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DK/$10,800 FD) 

When you’re giving up five runs and still can score 19.3 DK points, you can bet that the interest remains high in that next start. Glasnow is fifth in the league in K rate at 39.7% and his fastball is ranked second in FanGraphs rating. Considering he throws it 55% of the time and the A’s are one of the worst teams against it, that’s a very nice checkmark for Glasnow. That pitch also shares the strikeout lead for him with the curve at 21 each, while the slider only has four. He’s getting a 32.8% whiff rate on the pitch and only a .249 xwOBA against it. The 16% swinging-strike rate is also the highest rate of Glasnow’s career and the hard-hit rate of just 19.7% is second in MLB. 

Oakland is about mid-pack in K rate to righties at 24.7% and in fairness, Glasnow is a little worse to RHH. They have a .229 wOBA, .143 average, and a 39.4% K rate with a FIP and xFIP combo below 3.00. Yes, that’s the worse side of the plate for him and illustrates just how good Glasnow has been. On this slate, he’s a clear step above everyone else and I would have to assume he’s chalk in cash games. Who doesn’t want to play this guy?

Carlos Rodon ($9,800 DK/$11,000 FD) 

I say Glasnow is a clear step up, but I wouldn’t say it’s a big step because Rodon is on fire to start and is in the best possible spot. Detroit is 29th or 30th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while sporting the highest K rate to lefties at 34.2%. It’s not even an exaggeration to say the spot for Rodon is THE best in baseball. Some of Rodon’s metrics are skewed by a no-hitter that was nearly a perfect game but the K rate is still 32.4%. The walk rate is a touch high at 10.8% but goes which team is 29th in walk rate? Survey says….the Detroit Tigers! 

I do know Rodon has some type of regression coming. That’s not a hot take or anything with a 0.47 ERA and he’s never come close to the 16% swinging strike rate he’s posting right now. He’s picked up about 2 MPH on the four-seam and slider and those two pitches have every single strikeout for Rodon. It should also be noted that the xSLG and the xwOBA for the fastball are .503 and .358, which isn’t exactly great. Still, with the Tigers on the other side, I believe Rodon has at least one more start to be worth this salary and we can certainly explore the double ace route. 

Alex Wood ($8,300 DK/$8,800 FD)

Wood only has two starts so his metrics need to be taken with that grain of salt, but he’s been outstanding so far. The K rate is 27.5%, the WHIP is 0.42, the hard contact is 17.9%, and the swinging-strike rate is 13.9%. If he qualified, Wood would lead the majors in ground ball rate at 63% and the sinker shouldn’t scare us. Only Trevor Story and C.J. Cron have wOBA’s over .330 and ISO’s over .150 in the potential Rockies lineup. Cron especially looks appealing with a .611 ISO and a .741 wOBA (and crushes lefty sliders), but I’m not going to move off a pitcher because of one or two hitters. 

He’s not going to continue to have a .111 BABIP but he’s dominating RHH so much that I’m not overly concerned the regression hits all at once. Through 33 hitters faced, they have a .075 wOBA, .063 average, and a 33.3% K rate. The FIP and xFIP are both under 1.75 to that side of the plate as well. The Rockies are no better than slightly below average in any category we value outside of Denver against lefties, so Wood likely picks up some traction through the day. 

German Marquez ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD)

Marquez is always a fun pitcher to use when the Rockies hit the road, and he’s pitched well to start the season despite four of his first five starts coming in Coors. His issue has always been lefty hitters which would lead you to think he’s not the best play tonight. Realistically, there is some risk but the Giants could be without Mike Yastrzemski, which would be a big blow to the offense. The Giants are sporting the second-highest K rate to righties so far at 28.4% and Marquez is holding LHH to a .219 average, .313 wOBA, and a 22.7% K rate. His curve has been doing some serious work with 18 strikeouts already and a 50.9% whiff rate. San Fran looks solid against that pitch but looking at it individually, there’s only one hitter to worry about. 

Brandon Belt has a 3.8 rating against the pitch while no other Giant is over 0.7. For context, that leaves Belt as the fourth-best curveball hitter in baseball, so keep him in mind in all formats. Marquez is sporting the highest ground ball rate in baseball among qualified starters at 59.7% so even when he’s not striking hitters out, they’re not getting the ball in the air. His 12.8% swinging-strike rate is right in line with career numbers and Marquez has upside at this salary. This game could turn low-scoring if both pitchers are on their game. 

Zack Greinke ($9,400 DK/$9,000 FD)

I hesitate to even use pitch data because Greinke will throw anything at any point and doesn’t always sit around the same speeds. He legitimately went sidearm on a random pitch –

Still, it is pretty solid for him on paper as the Mariners don’t hit his pitch types all that well. The last time Greinke saw them, he spun an absolute gem of an eight-inning, four-hit ball and scored 31.6 DK points. I doubt that happens again and the K rate for Greinke is still pretty low a 17.1%. I always worry about K rates that low at this salary because you’re going to need eight innings out of him to pay off. The 8.4% swinging-strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2011 and that’s a worry as well. Seattle does strikeout over 25% of the time so I don’t want to totally ignore Greinke, but I don’t believe he’ll be a priority for me tonight. I will also admit some bias here as I never seem to get Greinke right. 

Ryan Weathers ($7,300 DK/$6,300 FD) 

Weathers has now pitched in four games and earned some leash in the rotation for the Padres. Pitching to a 0.59 ERA with a 29.6% K rate through 15.1 IP tends to do that. He’s definitely dancing through some raindrops a little bit with a 43.8% hard-hit rate and a fly ball rate over 40% but he does have a 95 MPH fastball and a decent slider to match. Being the youngest starter in the majors isn’t easy, and neither is facing the Dodgers but here he is. 

This is a tough matchup. Arizona whiffs only 21.7% of the time to lefty pitching, not to mention they rank inside the top-three in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. It’s not for the faint of heart. Weathers has faced 31 righties and held them to a .184 wOBA, .074 average, and is whiffing them at a 32.3% rate. If you’re brave enough to play him, you’re banking on pedigree and poise from the young man. He’s also got his pitch count up to 89, so if everything is going well six innings is not out of the question. 

Starting Rotation 4.28 – In Play 

Steven Matz – He was close to getting a full write-up but I’m not sure how much I play him with Wood cheaper on DK. Matz gets another tough assignment tonight against the Nationals but he’s pitched so well so far he needs to be in the player pool. His change could be a big weapon with the second-most strikeouts and Washington ranking 24th against that pitch. The 27.2% K rate for Matz is easily his best in his career and the Nationals as a whole don’t profile well against his sinker, which is the main pitch. Only Josh Bell, Starlin Castro, and Victor Robles have an ISO over .250 but they all also have a ground ball rate over 51%. 

Alex Cobb – He hurt me last time but we have short memories around here. We all know the Rangers strike out a ton and still lead MLB in K rate to RHP. Texas is only 19th against the splitter this year and that pitch is the deal-breaker for Cobb. It has 15 of 21 strikeouts and Cobb has been nasty to LHH with a .226 wOBA, 32.1% K rate, and no home runs allowed. I sort of hope he slips through the cracks and makes for a solid GPP play. The 2.53 FIP and 2.35 xFIP tell a much different story than the 6.28 ERA. 

Cole Irvin – We all know that attacking the Rays with lefties can end one of two ways. Irvin has an 18.3% K rate which is a little low for my tastes but does at least generate a 40.6% ground ball rate. The CSW is just 23.3% and the Rays are a mixed bag against lefty sinkers and fastballs, which are the main two pitches for Irvin. He is holding RHH to a .264 wOBA which scuffling with the lefties at a .483 mark. Perhaps we can look to the Rays lefties for a one-off or mini-stack. 

Dean Kremer – Are we brave enough to go after Yankee hitters for a third straight game? Kremer could go full Matt Harvey here. He relies on the fastball 53% of the time and he throws right-handed, which is important. New York is getting owned by righties and Kremer features a 3.62 xFIP contrasted with his 6.75 ERA. His walk rate is scary at 12% but the K rate is 28%, the fly ball rate is only 30%, the hard-hit rate is 26.7%, and the CSW is over 28%. These aren’t objectively poor numbers. Much like Harvey, his BABIP is out of hand at .429. Kremer is better to RHH with a 2.26 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, zero homers, and a .320 wOBA. As far as I’m concerned, here we go again. This might be from 2020, but the stuff remains –

Starting Rotation 4.28 – Out of Play

Taylor Widener – The Padres have not hit the fastball well yet, ranking just 24th in baseball. Widener throws his about 63% of the time but also has a .408 xwOBA and the FIP/xFIP combo is an identical 4.75, well above the 2.82 ERA he has. Widener is also sporting a 1.61 HR/9 and an 88.2% strand rate, which won’t hold up. The Padres are third in hard-hit rate as a team to righties and Widener is over 47% for his rate. 

Huascar Ynoa – I’m sort of on the fence with Ynoa but I’m settling with leaving him out of play. The K rate is awesome at 29.8% but his hard-hit rate is 40% and the BABIP is only .200. The HR/9 at 2.05 isn’t exactly appealing, nor is the last time he faced the Cubs and got smacked. Chicago is still striking out a ton and Ynoa does generate a swinging-strike rate over 13% but I’m still a little nervous on this spot for him. If you decided to play him, I don’t think I’d mount a strong argument against it. 

Kyle Hendricks – A righty who has a K rate under 21% and is not generating ground balls isn’t where I look to attack the Atlanta offense. His FIP is 7.57 and that’s coming with a strand rate of 89.6%. His three main pitches are all over a .405 xSLG and a .330 xwOBA. Hendricks is throwing the sinker almost 40% of the time and he’s allowed two homers already. Let’s take a look at Atlanta against righty sinkers –

Domingo German – He’s only pitched 13 innings because he’s getting clobbered with a 6.23 ERA and a 5.78 FIP. The BABIP is high at .349 but so is the HR/9 at 2.77. German is seeing a hard-hit rate at almost 47% and each side of the plate is over a .340 wOBA against him with RHH sitting at .468. 

Erick Fedde – You’ll have to excuse me if I’m not buying the 24.3% K rate for Fedde so far. he’s sitting at 16% for his career, which spans 210.1 IP. He is throwing the cutter more but that’s not a huge K pitch for him. He does get a decent lineup for his splits, which he’s holding RHH to a .251 wOBA and lefties are getting to him for a .374 wOBA. Even still, I’m not bold enough to attack Toronto and Vlad Daddy. Fedde hasn’t exactly faced a gauntlet up to this point and the Braves offense smacked him around. 

Dane Dunning – The metrics don’t look too bad for Dunning through his 17.2 IP with a 24% K rate and a 2.47 FIP/3.30 xFIP combo. However, the Angels are one of the lowest strikeout teams in the league. Dunning is also leaning on his sinker 62% of the time. While it’s generated 10 of his 18 strikeouts, LA profiles extremely well against righty sinkers. Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols all have a wOBA of at least .347 and an ISO of at least .250 against that pitch type. 

Vince Velasquez – It’s hard to ever suggest playing a pitcher with a WHIP over 2.00, even with a 32.5% K rate. RHH have also smashed Vinnie Velo for a .531 wOBA, .333 average, and a 4.91 HR/9. That’s not ideal when you have five righties in the opposing lineup. 

Casey Mize – We all want the kid to be good, but he flat out hasn’t yet in the majors. Through 49 IP, he has a 6.41 FIP, 5.09 xFIP, 17.9% K rate, and just a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. His talent will allow him to pop up for a great start now and again but most slates it’s foolhardy to play him. The White Sox have the third-best strikeout rate on top of that. 

Johan Oviedo – The young righty is making his first start of the season but has yet to show much upside in his 29.1 IP. Sure, that’s a small sample size but his K rate is only 15.5% and the CSW is 27.1%. I will say that Philly isn’t above average against his main three pitches of the four-seam, cutter, and curve but I’m not willing to go after just that. Additionally, RHH have a .370 wOBA against him in his short career. 

Justin Dunn – There’s going to be a point where we use this kid and do it with a smile. He’s using the curve more and more this season, and that’s a good thing. It has a 30% whiff rate, .230 xwOBA and .224 xSLG. Unfortunately, his fastball is sitting at a .496 xwOBA and a .657 xSLG. His walk rate is super elevated at 16.9% and Houston is top five against the fastball and only whiffs 20% of the time. It’s just not the right matchup. 

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