MLB DFS

Starting Rotation 6.13

It’s a Sunday in the major leagues and we have 11 games on tap today. There is likely to be a strong argument to go double ace in cash and find some bats that will work with them but that doesn’t mean we don’t have some interesting pitchers lower in salary. Let’s find out who makes the most sense for Starting Rotation 6.13 and lay those foundations for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.13 – Main Targets 

Shane Bieber 

Bieber has honestly not been worth the hefty price tag a lot this year, with seven of his last 10 starts finishing under 25 DK points. The last time he saw this Seattle team they touched him up for three runs and forced him to throw 103 pitches through 4.2 IP. We’ve talked a few times about how Bieber has been easier (relatively speaking) to hit this year but the ERA/FIP/xFIP combo is all under 2.90 so it’s hard to get too upset for real life. This is fantasy and we have to consider what we pay to play Bieber and his 34.4% K rate, down almost 7% from 2020. 

Bieber is still more than capable of big games and the spot should in theory be great for strikeouts. They have moved up to the fifth-worst K rate against righty pitching at 25.6% this season. The wOBA for lefties looks a touch high from an ace quality pitcher but Bieber is getting hurt by the BABIP gods with a .370 mark. The good news is the K rate is still 38.2% to that side and Seattle should feature five lefties. I believe you eat the (probable) chalk in cash, but I also believe he’s not an absolute must-play in GPP. 

Carlos Rodon

The main reason I don’t believe Bieber is an absolute must is right here. Rodon has been outstanding the entire season to this point with really just two poor starts. Detroit’s K rate to lefties has come down from the early part of the season but they still lead baseball at a 29.6% rate. Rodon himself is at a 37.1% rate and a 16.2% swinging-strike rate. Those would rank around seventh and second among pitchers if he qualified. The four-seam is almost three MPH higher than last year and the slider is two MPH better.

Considering they have combined for 86 of 88 strikeouts, are both over a 29.5% whiff rate, and neither has a wOBA over .242, I’d say the velocity is making a difference. Rodon’s slider would rank seventh in FanGraphs ratings if he qualified and that pitch has been fantastic. Righty hitters only have a .260 wOBA against Rodon this year and the xFIP is only 2.94. Rodon has yet to see the Tigers lineup but I’m quite excited to play him here. 

Robbie Ray 

If you’ve played MLB DFS for any length of time, you know that lefty pitchers against the Sox are almost never the path to take. Normally, that has been accurate but a trend is emerging this season that points in the other direction. Not only has Boston lost Mookie Betts, but J.D. Martinez is not doing his usual work against lefties. On the season, Boston is 29th in fly ball rate (which is a huge help for Ray), 17th in OBP, 14th in slugging, 16th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+. If I just gave you those ranks and didn’t tell you the team name, you wouldn’t be sweating the matchup all that much. The reputation for the Red Sox has been far better than performance so far in 2021 and Ray has been mostly lights out this year. He’s been one of the most fascinating stories of the season in my eyes. 

Ray has 39 strikeouts on the four-seam which is the most of any pitch and even though it does give up some home runs, the tradeoff has worked. His xFIP is only 3.03 since the HR/FB rate is 24.2% but one of the largest shifts has been in the walk rate. Ray has never even sniffed a 5.7% walk rate in his career and the 31.2% K rate is right up there with his best numbers. He just got through being an absolute buzz saw against the White Sox lineup, which has been excellent to lefties this season. Since the HR/FB rate is so high, it’s great to see Boston not getting balls into the air against lefties and I believe Ray should be in line for another good game here. 

Framber Valdez 

This is yet another spot that we wouldn’t normally want a piece of, but the circumstances around Valdez are unique. Minnesota is inside the top 10 in about every metric we value offensively against lefties but they also strike out at the 10th highest rate. Not only that, the Twins are currently without Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, and Kyle Garlick. Those three hitters represent three of the top four ISO marks against lefties this season for the Twins. Buxton and Garlick are both over a .375 wOBA as well, so the lineup is not as good as the seasonal data suggests right now. 

Valdez himself has only thrown 18.1 innings on the season so far but they have been dominant. The xFIP is 2.18, the ERA is 1.47, the K rate is 29.3%, and the WHIP is only 0.87. His curveball has been out of this world early with a .076 wOBA and a 50% whiff rate. Valdez has also held righties to just a .217 wOBA thus far and is whiffing them at a 30.6% rate with a 1.99 xFIP. With Minnesota having some holes in the lineup, I’m interested. 

Tony Santillan 

MLB Debut 

Well, we’ve been down this road before but here we go again. Rookie debuts can go horribly wrong at any moment but the Rockies are on the road and they are a different offense. Santillan has a fastball that sits about 94 MPH but it can get up to 97-98 MPH to go with the slider as the “out” pitch. He also has a changeup but that pitch can come and go on him so I don’t expect him to utilize it very much. We have to really like the Rockies ranking 29th against the slider and they strike out over 27% on the road to righty pitching. Santillan has really found his way through 32.1 IP in the minors this year with a 34.4% K rate and a 3.53 xFIP and the former is a major weapon. The low end of salary today looks pretty tough, so Santillan checks in as low as I would go. 

Starting Rotation 6.13 Honorable Mention 

Domingo German – It worked out horribly for Taillon yesterday but German is better to righties with a .280 wOBA and a 25.2% K rate. 

Pablo Lopez – The matchup is scary but Pablo Lopez looks like a Cy Young candidate when he’s pitching in Miami. 

Starting Rotation 6.13 Stacking Options 

• Cleveland against Logan Gilbert (Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley, Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario)
• Giants against Joe Ross (Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade Jr.)
• White Sox against Logan Shore (Yoan Moncada, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes)
• Brewers against Wil Crowe (Willy Adames, Luis Urias, Christian Yelich, Dan Vogelbach, Avisail Garcia)
• Blue Jays against Martin Perez (Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Marcus Semien)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.12

Saturday is a little bit of a wonky day as we do get a split slate day but a whopping 11 games are in the afternoon. The evening slate looks dreadful for pitching outside of Trevor Bauer so we’re going to focus on breaking down the 11 game slate that is today’s main option. Hopefully, you’re ready to eat some chalk today because there is one very clear ace option in Starting Rotation 6.12 we need to be heavily interested in! 

Starting Rotation 6.12 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

We talked yesterday about Brandon Woodruff and that didn’t exactly work out as he had a very pedestrian start compared to his capabilities. It needs to be said that Burnes has been far better than Woodruff in any given category. He’s over a 42% K rate on the season with a 0.97 FIP, 1.71 xFIP, and a 1.97 ERA. The barrel rate is 4.2% and when teams do make contact, Burnes has a 50.8% ground ball rate. That would rank eighth in the league if he qualified and the 18.5% swinging-strike rate would be behind only Jacob deGrom. Lastly, Burnes has a 36.3% CSW and that would lead all of baseball. Basically, if deGrom wasn’t having his historical season (please be alright), Burnes would be widely recognized as a top-five pitcher right now. On paper, there is no other option on this slate that matches the upside as he’s coming off a 43 DK point start. 

Joe Musgrove 

I’m not as worried about the pitch data since Musgrove is kind of all over the board here and doesn’t lean on anything in a major way. The Mets offense is still hurting and for a few innings, Musgrove was going toe-to-toe with deGrom in the last start. It unraveled a bit but Musgrove has been beyond expectations this season. The ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all under a 2.95 mark and the K rate is a career-high of 34.2% while the walk rate is only 5%. Musgrove is also generating a 14.6% swinging-strike rate and the WHIP is only 0.84. 

His slider and curveball are both under a .180 wOBA and both are over a 35% whiff rate, with the cutter lagging. Truthfully, the cutter hasn’t done him a lot of favors this year with the worst wOBA and average given up among his pitch types. Having said that, he has both sides of the plate under a .275 wOBA and both sides are over a 31.5% K rate. The salary is a touch high but such is the state of the slate today. 

Wade Miley 

Miley gets the fortune of catching Colorado on the road, and that means he faces a totally different offense. The Rockies are 23rd in OBP, 24th in slugging, 25th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, and 25th in wOBA and wRC+. That mess of a package comes with the fourth-highest K rate of 27.5% which should help the 21.1% K rate from Miley himself. The 9.5% swinging-strike rate and the 25.5% CSW don’t particularly jump off the page, but the venue of the game (yes, Cincinnati is better than Coors) does Miley a world of good. Miley should be facing six righties and the pitcher spot, which certainly works for him. He’s given up a .279 wOBA and a .60 HR/9 to that side of the plate with a 3.36 xFIP. Another aspect that pushes Miley into consideration is the ground ball rate, which is 59% to righties. That’s exactly what we want to see when targeting a pitcher in Cincy and we always love Rockies Road matchups (and ice cream). 

Jameson Taillon 

Let’s. 

Get. 

Nuts. 

The overriding goal of Starting Rotation is to present options, ranging from safe to risky so you can build lineups around the pitching, pending on how risky you want to get. That’s why we added Honorable Mention because if you guys disagree about one of my picks, you can pivot to someone you like better. I also like trying to find that one gem that the field may possibly skip. Pitching Taillon today is 100% not for everyone, and I totally get it. How often does a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 grab a coveted feature spot in the article? I mean, it’s way too late to go back and research that number but let’s say not many and call it square. 

So, why am I looking at Taillon? There are a few specific metrics that have him match up very well against Philly. For starters, the K rate is a career-high 25.8% and Philly is eighth in K rate to righties at 25.5% so that checks a box. Taillon isn’t getting hit all that hard at a 29.5% hard-hit rate and his xFIP is a much more palatable 4.35 than the 5.09 ERA. He’s also generating a 13.2% swinging-strike rate, which is a top 20 mark in the majors. Some things are going right for Taillon and the four-seam fastball is at the center of it with 41 of 58 strikeouts. It has yielded a .326 wOBA but also carries a 32.5% whiff rate and Philly is one of the worst teams against it. 

Lastly, the splits for Taillon are exactly what he needs to survive the Philly lineup. To righties, he’s giving up a .277 wOBA, 3.76 xFIP, and a 0.91 WHIP. He should see six and the pitcher’s spot in the normal Phillies lineup. Lefties crush him for a 2.31 HR/9, 5.10 xFIP, and a .382 wOBA. So if you don’t play Taillon today, play Philly lefties including Odubel Herrera and Byrce Harper. With everything we talked about and Philly ranking 27th in fly ball rate to righties (that helps offset a fly rate over 48% from Taillon), he has a clear, if narrow, path to success today. 

Starting Rotation 6.12 Honorable Mention 

Rich Hill – I went to give him a full breakdown until I noticed he’s thrown under 60 pitches in the past two starts. Looking back through Marc Topkin’s (Marc is an awesome guy on Twitter) work for the Tampa Bay Times, it was easy to find that manager Kevin Cash was content with Hill going five strong and going with the bullpen. If Hill gets 90+ pitches, he could dominate but there’s a serious risk. 

Alex Cobb – We want lefty-heavy offenses when considering Cobb and Arizona fits that bill for sure. He’s smacking the left side of the plate around this season with a 27.7% k rate, 2.84 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, and a .234 wOBA. I’m not totally in love with the price and Cobb has shown he can get blown up in any start, but he shouldn’t be totally ignored. 

Yusei Kikuchi – I do prefer Miley right in this salary, but they are somewhat interchangeable. Cleveland only whiffs to lefties at a 23% rate but Kikuchi does boast a 25.9% K rate himself. The 1.76 HR/9 is a bit ugly but the HR/FB rate is 25% and the xFIP is only 3.38. Like Miley, Kikuchi generates ground balls at a good clip of 49.7% and Cleveland is ninth in that metric at 45.9%. 

German Marquez – I’d bet Marquez is way more popular than Taillon and that will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I suppose the largest issue in my eyes is Marquez only strikes out lefties at a 21.3% rate as opposed to 29.8% to righties on the road. The Reds are balanced typically between lefties and righties but don’t be surprised if he’s popular with the field. 

Starting Rotation 6.12 Stacking Options

Before we hit the options, I need to apologize so everyone to read. Yesterday, I had the Angels listed as a stacking option against Brady Singer which is cool….except for Singer was pitching against the Oakland A’s. It was a very poor mistake on my part and the community deserves better. I didn’t catch it until I sat down to write Friday night, and that was 100% on me. Hopefully, it didn’t cause too much confusion and I’ll continue to put the best foot forward in covering these slates without a giant-sized error like that again. 

• A’s against Jackson Kowar (The rookie Royals pitcher didn’t get out of the first inning, all hands on deck for the A’s with Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy, and Mitch Moreland at the forefront). 
• Braves against Zach Thompson (Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, William Contreras, Ozzie Albies)
• Brewers against Chad Kuhl (Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Dan Vogelbach, Luis Urias) – note – I left of Christian Yelich just due to price as I would just play Acuna
• Red Sox against Steven Matz (Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers)
• Yankees against Vince Velasquez – I know the Yanks haven’t hit that well but VV has a 99.2% strand rate to righty hitting. The FIP is over 6.00 and he has a 2.30 HR/9. Something has to give. I’m looking at Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Miguel Andujar as opposed to a massive stack. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.11

After a split Thursday slate that Brian was nice enough to cover for me, we are back for a full Friday night slate! It’s National Jacob deGrom Day and we will certainly be celebrating with everyone else. At the first glance, it doesn’t appear to be the slate to spend down on pitching. The largest question is where are we heading in Starting Rotation 6.11 to pair up with the best pitcher in the game so let’s get to work!

Starting Rotation 6.11 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom

I wasn’t planning on saying much about deGrom. When he plays, we play him and we all know this by now. Then I opened the slate for the night and it’s not even a discussion. Max Scherzer got rained out Thursday night, so he will pitch tonight and DK has priced him higher than deGrom. The Mets righty leads the majors in everything we value and this would be one of the most statistically dominant seasons in baseball history if deGrom can keep this up.

He should be over $13,000 every slate, akin to Russell Westbrook at the end of this NBA season. If he was, it makes you at least calculate if it’s worth paying the price. When he’s not even the priciest option on the board? I would play deGrom ahead of Scherzer in every format, 100 times out of 100. 

Brandon Woodruff 

If you decide to take the path of double ace and spend down on hitters, Woodruff would certainly check that box. His 1.42 ERA isn’t terribly far off from his 2.20 FIP and 2.68 xFIP and Woodruff has a 0.47 HR/9 against the team that is ranked dead last in ISO. The 4.7% barrel rate is excellent and backs up the 26.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the fastball is ranked as the best one in the majors on FanGraphs and Pittsburgh is dead last against that pitch. Granted, he’s only throwing it about 35% of the time but the four-seam also has 57 strikeouts so far with a .160 wOBA and a 31.5% whiff rate. 

The Pirates lineup is balanced with generally four of each hitter plus the pitcher spot but with Woodruff, it likely doesn’t even matter. Both sides of the plate are either at a .197 wOBA or a .191 wOBA and neither side is above a .155 average. The K rates are above 30% for both sides and the WHIP is under 0.85 as well. There’s nothing to pick on here for Woodruff and on most slates, he’d be in the running for the SP1 spot.

Shohei Ohtani 

We got to see Ohtani at his best in the last start when he racked up over 30 DK points and whiffed 10 hitters across just 76 pitches. Perhaps the best facet we saw from Ohtani was zero walks because that has been one of his largest issues this season. The K rate of 34.1% has only been rivaled by a 14.8% walk rate. Ohtani hasn’t been getting hit hard with a 5.7% barrel rate and a 31% hard-hit rate and he has the looks of an elite ace pitcher aside from the high walk rate. Both the swinging-strike rate of 14.4% and the CSW of 31.2% would be inside the top 15 if Ohtani qualified. His biggest weapon continues to be the splitter, which is just a video game pitch. 

The splitter is thrown more to lefties than righties at a 92-46 rate so far, which is huge when we consider the lefty-heavy Arizona lineup. Ohtani’s splitter has 41 of 60 strikeouts, a .069 wOBA, and a 63.9% whiff rate. The odd part about all those stats is the left side of the plate strikes out at a much lower rate of 27% compared to 43.3% to the righties. Lefties also carry a 4.51 xFIP so there is some concern with Ohtani, but the price remains far too low for the ceiling. 

Charlie Morton 

Playing Morton on the right night this season has been….maddening, to say the least. His 4.21 ERA is not totally in line with the 3.27 xFIP and the 3.64 FIP and Ground Chuck has a 27.2% K rate with a 49.1% ground ball rate. Morton is also getting hit hard only 25.5% of the time and it seems like the bad luck has really found him so far this season. His .310 BABIP would be the highest full-season rate since 2016, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.7% is almost totally in line with the past few seasons. It’s interesting to note that of 72 total strikeouts, 61 have come from the four-seam/curve combo. Miami is sitting inside the bottom 10 against each pitch and the curve has over a 43% whiff rate. 

We’ve generally not played Morton very much and on a slate this loaded up top, maybe you don’t have to. However, if you’re attempting to fit some more expensive stacks he’s cheap enough to get a strong look here. Miami is 23rd or worse in OPS, ISO, and wOBA and that comes with the fifth-highest K rate in the league at 25.9%. Morton is also better to righties with a .293 wOBA and the normal Marlins lineup has five plus the pitcher spot. Being in Miami doesn’t hurt either and Morton could be a fairly cheap 20+ DK points tonight. 

Tarik Skubal

Skubal is absolutely the most dangerous player in the article tonight, so let’s be upfront. I don’t always love pitchers facing the same team twice in a row, the White Sox are inside the top-five in all our offensive categories, and Skubal has a very short track record of success. Five of his past six starts have been over 19 DK and we’ve seen a change in the pitch mix does wonders for him. The splitter is gone which is great because it was getting destroyed. When he eliminated that, some velocity came back into the fastball and it has a 25% whiff rate. 

On the season, Skubal has a 28.3% K rate and is proving he can strike out major league hitters. Even dialing back to the start of May, his ERA is just 3.33, the wOBA is .325, and both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.80. That’s coming with a K rate over 34% and everything can start to be traced with his pitch mix change. The salary shouldn’t be this low but be prepared for the floor if picking him tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – On most slates, I would be all over Giolito. He’s rattled off at least 21 DK in four straight starts and gets a Detroit offense that is still whiffing around 25% of the time. I prefer Woodruff for $300 more but I can’t complain if you went here. 

Clayton Kershaw – It speaks to how loaded the elite tier is tonight that Kershaw is only in Honorable Mention. Texas strikes out 23.5% of the time and they will lose their DH on top of that. Kershaw’s recent form has been quite poor and I suspect we could get him at sub-5% tonight. If that happens, he’s worth taking shots with as a pairing with deGrom. 

Starting Rotation 6.11 Stacking Options 

• Astros against Matt Shoemaker (Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa)
• Angels against Brady Singer (Jared Walsh, Justin Upon, Max Stassi, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward)
• Dodgers against Mike Foltynewicz (Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, cheaper lefties)
• Reds against Kyle Freeland (Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson)
• Nationals against Anthony DeSclafani (Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber)
• Rays against Keegan Akin (Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino, Taylor Walls, Austin Meadows)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.9

This slate is another massive one but man it is a weird one. Pitching looks pretty poor on the surface but we also could have a couple of glaring values. One of the biggest decisions on the slate lies at the very top so let’s get busy in the Starting Rotation 6.9 to lay the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.9 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

I’m going to say this right off the hop, and perhaps this stand backfires. I will not have any Gerrit Cole outside of cash (if he’s popular). Look, this is far less about anything Cole brings to the mound statistically throughout the season more than what he might not be bringing. Cole is at the epicenter of the “scandal” in MLB right now that sees pitchers using sticky stuff to gain higher spin rates and more movement on their pitches. The last start saw Cole drop his RPM by an awful lot to the lowest rate since 2018. His whiff rate was down on both the four-seam and curveball which isn’t a good sign.
Another very poor sign? Cole’s “answer” to a reporter asking if he’s using Spider Tack.

This is just an absurd answer, or non-answer maybe is the better term. Cole is a very talented pitcher and is fully capable of dominating. If everything was equal, he’d be the clear number one option on the slate. However, the Twins are the best team against the fastball. If that’s an issue in this start, we’d regret paying over $11,000. I fully believe he’ll be popular in cash and we eat chalk in that format, but I’m willing to gamble and have some Twins tonight. 

Taijuan Walker 

Nobody whose name isn’t Brian Tulloch wakes up and says, “YES! I can play Taijuan Walker today!” and even I’m not in love with the play. The xFIP of 4.20 isn’t spectacular in comparison to the 2.17 ERA but Walker does have a 23.7% K rate at least. The WHIP is also just 1.06 despite a 10.7% walk rate and the 9.3% swinging-strike rate is on the high side for him. It’s still frustrating to see him using the sinker as every pitch but that one has a wOBA no higher than .236. The four-seam has 31 of 51 strikeouts so far and Baltimore whiffs over 24% to righty pitching. They are also no higher than 25th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, or OBP on the season to righty pitching. 

Walker also has strong splits against each side of the plate, as neither is over a .243 wOBA on the season. The lefties are still a bit of a mixed bag because the K rate jumps slightly to 25%, but the xFIP is scary at 4.81. Having said that, the hard-hit rate is still just 28.6% to that side of the plate and Baltimore has not exactly been an offense to take advantage of any weakness against righties. On a weird slate, Walker checks enough boxes to make the cut. 

Casey Mize 

The pitch data looks fantastic for Mize in this start and for the life of me I can’t figure out why the price isn’t coming up. He’s now strung together five straight starts of at least 17 DK points but has yet to exceed $7,000 on any given slate. Mize has struck out a total of 26 hitters over the past four starts and has only given up a total of six earned runs over 26 IP. The K rate of 20.4% is not exactly accurate at this stage and his WHIP is only 1.07. His 50.6% ground ball rate is 11th in the league and he’ll need every bit of it since the Mariners are surprisingly 27th in ground ball rate on the year to righty pitching.

Mize does come with a significant catch – lefty hitters have been an issue, even while he’s been pitching better. The wOBA is .340, the FIP is 6.04, and the xFIP is 4.54. Seattle will have 5-6 lefties and that’s not ideal, as they are 13th in ISO against righty pitching. The four-seam has been the home run pitch with six bombs given up and a .353 wOBA. The good news is it does possess a 27.8% whiff rate and Seattle is almost last against the pitch. Mize is dangerous, but he is also mis-priced. With the Mariners featuring a 25.8% K rate, the reward is worth the risk.

Tucker Davidson

When a slate looks this tough, I’m willing to take some chances and Davidson is exactly that. We’re only talking about a 13.1 inning sample size in the majors to this point and there is a 5.55 FIP and 5.48 xFIP in that sample. The K rate is also only 20.3% but some of that is a bit skewed by a poor 1.2 IP in 2020. What we love to see is the 13.1% swinging-strike rate thus far and a 50% ground ball rate. Through 20 IP in the minors, Davidson has shown strikeout upside with a 32.4% K rate and a ground ball rate of 52.4%. Philly has been an offense to pick on with lefty pitching this season with a 29.3% K rate, which is the third-worst in the league. They are also 13th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging as well. 

Davidson has faced 34 righties and they only have a .256 wOBA and he should see 6-7 righties tonight. The largest fear is the 11.8% K rate and the 5.41 xFIP, so understand exactly what you’re going with if you play him. The Mets and the Nationals were tougher matchups on paper and Davidson has scored at least 13.9 DK in each of those starts. 

Austin Gomber 

Everyone seems to remember the start where Gomber got absolutely annihilated by the Giants but he’s not getting enough respect for what he’s done outside of that lone start. Gomber has not been below 11.4 DK points past his first start of the year which only went three innings. In the past 10, he has six starts over 17 DK and is only $6,000. To sum it up, he should NOT be this cheap. Gomber has a K rate over 25%, a swinging-strike rate of 11.2%, and a 30.9% CSW on the season. Miami has the sixth-worst K rate to lefty pitching at 28% and even though Starling Marte is back in this offense, they still aren’t scary. They are either 22nd or 23rd in slugging, OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this season. 

Some folks might make a big deal about his road ERA being sky-high but that includes his horrific start and a 56.4% strand rate. To righties on the year, his strand rate is under 60% and that’s got to change at some point. His xFIP to that side of the plate is just 3.82 and with a hard-hit rate of just 29.4%, Gomber is a serious value in my eyes tonight. My plan for GPP is to pick two out of Mize, Davidson, and Gomber and play whatever bats I choose. 

Starting Rotation 6.9 Stacking Options

• Angels against Brad Keller (Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Max Stassi)
• Rays against Patrick Corbin (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Mike Brosseau)
• Dodgers against Tyler Anderson (Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Albert Pujols)
• Mets against Matt Harvey (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor – they would rank higher but the pricing for the other hitters is absurd. I may just settle for a mini-stack.)
• Tigers against Chris Flexen (Robbie Grossman, Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.6

It’s Sunday and we have a 10-game slate today and it falls under the category of a challenging/easy slate. I say that because the challenge comes from not having a ton of options at the first look. The easy part comes from when we don’t have a lot of options, it makes picking pitchers a whole lot easier. Let’s go through the normal process and see if we can identify some gems or if we’ll just play it straight in the Starting Rotation 6.6! 

Starting Rotation 6.6 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

Burnes hasn’t exactly hit the ceiling we saw earlier in the year in the past couple of starts but I very much doubt that will deter the field. Burnes is still sporting a 40.9% K rate to go along with the 51.9% ground ball rate. His 2.24 ERA looks fantastic and it looks even better next to a 1.17 FIP and 1.83 xFIP. Burnes has been nearly unhittable with a 4.7% barrel rate and a 21.7% hard-hit rate while he rocks an 18.3% swinging-strike rate and a 35% CSW. The K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW would all be second behind only Jacob deGrom if Burnes qualified. 

There will only be two small issues I’d put out there. The first is Burnes “only” has a 34% K rate to lefties. I say only because righties whiff at a 47.5% rate, and you need a ceiling at the price tag. It also has to be noted that Burnes hasn’t hit the ceiling since he came back from Covid. Trying to measure any effects he’s going through is useless as I’m not a doctor, but I’ll simply state that the time after the virus treats everyone differently. Hopefully, he rolls out there and totally smashes the Arizona lineup but we always try and discuss anything relevant to the start at hand. The issue with the fade is where else do we go if we pass on Burnes? 

Sandy Alcantara 

I wonder if the field turns to Trevor Bauer, but I have some fears there. For those who may have missed it, MLB is supposed to be cracking down on illegal substances on the baseball. These substances can help improve RPM (revolutions per minute) and we saw during Gerrit Cole’s last start he saw a dramatic drop in RPM and got hit hard. Bauer is one of the poster children for seeing a sharp increase in RPM and I worry if MLB starts looking, he abandons whatever he’s been using. Facing Atlanta isn’t where we want to play a pitcher that is suddenly not using what he normally uses. Now, this is all theoretical. MLB isn’t supposed to enforce it for a couple of weeks but everyone in the league knows they’re watching right now. It’s enough for me to not really look at Bauer today. 

Instead, let’s take a look at Alcantara. The Pirates have been a little bit feisty in this series but I’m not super concerned about that. This is still generally a poor offense (albeit with a 23% K rate) and rank 24th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging. The K rate for Alcantara isn’t the best we’re going to see in this price range at 23.8% but this is more of a slate context play than anything else. He generates a 52.3% ground ball rate and that ranks eighth in the league, which does help as does the 43.6% ground ball rate for the Pirates offense. That’s the 12th highest rate against righty pitching. 

The Bucs are good against the changeup but Alcantara’s is excellent and is ranked as the best changeup in baseball on FanGraphs. He’s earned a 35.9% whiff rate, .153 wOBA, and a .167 average. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and lefties are the worse side. Alcantara has surrendered a road ERA of 5.40, but he’s made starts against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Braves on the road. I’m not here to put much stock into the ERA. I wish he was slightly cheaper but if you’re not interested in Bauer, Alcantara makes a lot of sense. 

Jorge Lopez 

I feel pretty strongly that the best way to attack this slate is to live up top in the Burnes, Alcantara, and possibly Bauer range. I said pitching was bad and I meant it. This pick is wildly dangerous but there is a (narrow) path to success for Lopez. His 4.02 xFIP points us to the 5.29 ERA being fairly unlucky and that’s come with a 22% HR/FB rate. What is truly bizarre is the flyball rate for Lopez is only 28.1%. This isn’t a massive flyball pitcher. Lopez is displaying a career-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate and a 23.1% K rate. He’s never been above a 19.9% rate in any season he pitched more than 35 innings.

Lopez has also added velocity to the sinker and fastball and is sitting around 95 MPH. The four-seam especially has seen a sharp increase in whiff rate from 18% last year to 27.8% this season. He’ll also face 6-7 lefties and that is the better side of the plate with Lopez at a .300 wOBA, 23.8% K rate, and a 1.17 WHIP. Is anything about that spectacular? Nope. He’s $5,200 and if he can grind out 15 DK, we’d be super happy here. 

Honorable Mention 

Austin Voth – Plenty risky, but Voth has displayed a .169 wOBA and a 38.9% K rate to righties. He’s also gotten crushed by lefties for a .451 wOBA and a K rate of just 10%, so the lineup for Philly is incredibly important. They are only projected for two, which would leave me willing to take a chance here. 

Bailey Ober – He’s only pitched four innings in the majors that did not go well, but his past 40 IP in the minors have produced a K rate over 32%. He’s also never had issues with home runs so at $4,000 he can be worth a look in MME formats. 

Starting Rotation 6.6 Stacking Options 

• Astros against Steven Matz (Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Martin Maldonado)
• Cardinals against Wade Miley (Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman, Yadier Molina)
• Marlins against Chad Kuhl (Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte)
• Dodgers against Max Fried (Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Albert Pujols)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!