MLB DFS

Hump Day!  That’s right, it’s Wednesday and that will mean a split slate for us.  I’ll be focused on the Main Slate of MLB DFS tonight, an 8-game slate starting at 7 pm EST.  This is a slate that at first glance, is going to be another wide-open one.  We have some high-end pitching that is going to be very affordable, meaning we’ll be able to spend up on most bats that we want tonight.  If you’re looking for help on the early slate, I’ll be posting notes in Discord so make sure to drop by and say hello!

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($9k on DK) vs. Cleveland Guardians

All of a sudden, the Cleveland Guardians offense has gone extremely silent.  Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve scored just 24 runs.  Of the teams playing tonight, only the White Sox and Padres have scored fewer runs.  Their only saving grace is that they haven’t been striking out too much as they have just a 23% K rate over the last week.  That said, their K rate over the last month is up a few hundred basis points than their season total so they have begun to be a bit more free-swinging. 

Back to Flaherty, he’s been great this season.  As I’m sure you’ve read in my articles before, the reason he’s pitching so well is that he’s finally getting the ball over the zone.  His BB/9 are significantly lower than they’ve ever been and that’s translated to him being able to go longer into games.  He’s coming off an 8 K game against the Blue Jays and while I don’t think he has that level of upside here, I do see him getting 6-7 while not allowing much damage.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Nathan Eovaldi ($8.8k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Over the last 2 nights, we’ve seen guys like Michael Lorenzen and Jon Gray throw “masterpieces” against this White Sox team.  Both of them have been below average all season.  This speaks to how bad the White Sox have been not only recently, but this season as a whole.  At 27-76, they are the only team in baseball yet to crack 30 wins.  At a -193, they have by far the worst run differential in all of baseball as well. 

I will continue to pick on them with pitchers and we get a decent one tonight.  While he’s coming off a less-than-stellar start vs. the Orioles, before that had reached at least 20 DK in 6 of his previous 8 starts.  With this type of matchup today, look for Eovaldi to put his past start behind him and crack 20 DK points once again.    

The other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Tanner Bibee vs. Detroit, Gerrit Cole vs. the Mets, and Yariel Rodriguez vs. the Rays.  Tyler Glasnow is also very much in play tonight as he returns from the IL.  I do think however that he will be on a pitch count, severely limiting his upside tonight, especially as the most expensive pitcher on the slate.  I will be fading him.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Chris Flexen

I wish the Rangers were coming into this one swinging a little, but I’ll cut them some slack because they have been facing decent pitching.  Tonight’s a different story as they face one of the best slump-busters in the business in Chris Flexen.  Flexen is a terrible pitcher.  He had a few good seasons coming back from Korea, but the last 2 seasons have seen him regressed back to the same he was before he was forced to find employment overseas. 

This season he has an ERA of 5.22 and an xFIP nearly identical to that at 5.10.  He’s walking more batters than he has since back in 2018 and has a WHIP 1.40.  He’s a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of flyballs.  Flexen has also given up 17 homers already so he’s someone that we can absolutely chase power against. 

While he’s mostly been a reverse splits pitcher in his career, lefties have done him in this season.  They have a .275 ISO and a .369 vs. him.  11 of the 17 homers against this season have been to hitters from the left side.  That means I’m going to prioritize putting guys like Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Nate Lowe in my stack.  Corey Seager leads the Rangers in homers against righties this season and has a .893 OPS vs. them.  He’ll be the priority for me here. 

While I’ll focus on the lefties here, I also really want a piece of both Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien.  If I can only afford one of them, I’ll look to Semien as he’s been hot at the plate, with 12 hits in his last 33 AB.  He also has homered 10 times vs. righties this season.  This whole team is in play tonight as they’ll also get to face one of the worst bullpens in the game. 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Edward Cabrera

Another team that has somewhat been quite offensively but can go off at any moment is the Baltimore Orioles.  They’ll get to face off against a very inconsistent pitcher in Edward Cabrera.  Cabrera has all the talent in the world.  But he also has lapses where he just looks like an average-at-best AAA pitcher.  I’m going to be chasing those mistakes with one of the more powerful lineups in the game in the Orioles. 

I’m going to chase his weakness and that weakness is one of the Orioles strengths, lefties.  Lefties have just been embarrassing Cabrera of late.  Over he last 30 days, lefties have an insane .643 ISO and a .597 wOBA Vs him.  While that’s exaggerated, lefties also have a .333 ISO vs. him this season and a .447 wOBA.  They also strike out significantly less vs. him.

That will mean I’ll make sure that I have Gunnar Henderson in my lineup tonight.  He’s due big time and I think he breaks out of his slump big time tonight and gets home run number 29.  His numbers vs. righties this season are very strong, at .415 wOBA and a .982 OPS.  22 of his 28 bombs have also come against righties. 

The next guy I’m going to look to for the Orioles is their hottest hitter, Anthony Santander.  A case could be made that he would be my priority here as he is as locked in as ever, with 4 homers over the last 2 weeks and 9 RBI.  He’s been carrying this offense and he’ll carry us to the promised land tonight.  Other guys I have an interest in here are Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins.  Mullins is a strong value at $3.5k. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Robby Ray (making his first start since March 2023), Royals vs. Ryne Nelson, and Nationals vs. Matt Waldron.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and that means we have ourselves a large slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight, we’ll have 11 games to navigate through.  This slate brings us a pitcher with a rebirth type of season and a young gun that will more than likely be limited due to being on the trade block.  We also have another shot at Coors and also some really solid spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Logan Gilbert ($10k on DK) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I will more than likely only spend up on one pitcher tonight.  The choice for me will be to go with either Chris Sale or Logan Gilbert.  While Chris Sale is the pitcher who has more upside in most outings, I’m siding with Gilbert tonight.  The Angels are a whole lot easier of a matchup than the Reds are.  Over the last 2 2 weeks, the Angels have scored just 38 runs compared to the 58 of the Reds. 

What Gilbert lacks in the K department, he should make up for in the length department tonight as this is just a bad Angels team.  Gilbert for his part has pitched really well of late, with a 3.12 ERA and a nearly 26% K rate over the last month.  He’s gotten up into the 30 DK point territory in 3 of his last 6 outings, with one of those against these same Los Angeles Angels.  He’s my SP1 tonight, with Chris Sale right behind him. 

Jon Gray ($7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

This pick isn’t for the faint of heart.  Jon Gray has been terrible over the last month or so, with an 8.4 ERA and an xFIP and SIERA that are equally as high.  I’m going to cut him a bit of slack though as he’s faced some stiff competition in the Orioles twice and the Padres once. 

A few weeks ago he did put up a 22-point gem vs. the Royals and I think he has that type of upside tonight.  Last night Michael Lorenzen threw an 8-K outing against this same White Sox team.  If Lorenzen can silence the Sox, I don’t see why Gray can’t.  He’s risky but for GPP’s in this type of matchup, I do think he has some upside. 

Other pitchers that I do like tonight are going to be the aforementioned Chris Sale vs. the Reds, Zack Wheeler against a tough Minnesota Twins lineup, Jameson Taillon vs. a struggling Brewers lineup, and Luis Gil vs. the Mets.  I want to touch on Garrett Crochet for a second.  In his last outing, it was mentioned that they were going to start to monitor his innings and he went on to pitch just 2 innings.  Under normal circumstances, he’d be in the SP1 convo.  But we don’t know how many innings he’s going to pitch, especially with him on the trading block and the deadline being next week.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Jordan Montgomery.

Jordan Montgomery’s time with the Dbacks has not gone according to plan.  Across his 13 starts, Montgomery has posted a 6.44 ERA.  While he’s been a bit unlucky as he has an xFIP 2 runs lower, he’s still been terrible.  His K/9 are at an all-time low and his BB/9 are the highest they have been since he wore pinstripes in 2018.  He is just a shell of what he was in the playoffs last season and you have to wonder how much he’s regretting turning down that contract extension. 

He’s going to have his hands full tonight as he’s facing off against a Royals team that has come out swinging since the All-Star Break.  In the 4 games they’ve played, they’ve scored 27 runs.  They’ll look to continue to add to that total tonight. 

Core Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Hunter Renfroe, Maikel Garcia

Secondary Bats:  Vinnie Pasquantino

Value Bats: Garrett Hampson, Freddy Fermin, Dalton Blanco

Boston Red Sox vs. Ty Blach

I’m going back to the well with the Red Sox tonight.  The Red Sox get a great matchup vs. a bad pitcher in Ty Blach.  Blach is a career 5.21 ERA pitcher.  There is nothing about him that should scare hitters, at least if you’re a righty.  Blach has now been in the big leagues since 2016 and hasn’t had a season with an ERA under 5 since back in 2018.  While both sides of the plate have done damage against him in his career, it’s really the righties that we want to focus on. 

They have a .369 wOBA vs. him and an OPS of .867. In 2024, that OPS against righties has ballooned up to nearly 1.000.  48 of the 63 homers he’s allowed in his career have been to righties.  The Red Sox should be able to throw out 6 righties tonight, making this a really tough matchup for Blach. 

Core Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder, Romy Gonzalez, Ceddanne Rafaela

Secondary Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran

Value Bats:  Dominic Smith, Masataka Yoshida

Other stacks I like today will be the surging Oakland A’s (they have some strong value), Dodgers vs. Jordan Hicks, Rays vs. Jose Berrios, Dbacks vs. Alec Marsh, and Yankees vs. Jose Quintana

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all! In what is rare for a Saturday, we have ourselves a main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7.  Tonight, we’ll have 9 games on DK and 8 games on FD starting.  This is an interesting-looking slate at first glance, with a couple of really strong pitchers and some great spots for hitting.  It’s far from a wide-open slate though. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease ($9.7k on DK) vs. Cleveland Guardians

This spot is going to be a huge dilemma for me tonight.  There are few pitchers in the game today who possess the upside that Dylan Cease offers.  He has the third-highest K/9 in baseball at 11.66.  Only Garrett Crochet and Tyler Glasnow have higher K/9 than Cease.  While he has a handful of games this season scoring more than 30 DK points, he also has a handful of games this season scoring less than 10.  He’s the epitome of a GPP pitcher. 

He has one of the highest ceilings in the game, but he also has a very low floor.  The good thing for us here is that the Guardians offense has mostly stalled of late, scoring just 35 runs over the last 2 weeks.  Only a few teams have scored less than them.  Yes, they put up a 7 spot but they were dominated by Matt Waldron last night.  I’m going to risk it with Cease tonight because again, he possesses so much K upside compared to the field. 

Brady Singer ($8.1k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m going to go a bit cheaper with my SP2 tonight.  Brady Singer gets arguably the best matchup on paper tonight.  The White Sox are turrible.  They have the worst record in baseball at 27-72 and it’s not even close.  They are also 1 of just 3 teams that have a run differential of at least -100.  They are pushing a run differential of -200 at this point.  While Singer isn’t known to be a huge strike out guy, he does have the ability to get around 6-7 K’s in a neutral matchup. 

This isn’t a neutral matchup as the White Sox offense is epicly bad.  They’ve struck out 28% of the time over the last couple of weeks and have scored just 26 runs.  What Singer lacks in the K department, he should make up for in length tonight.  I’m locking him in as my SP2. 

The other pitchers I have an interest in today will be Grayson Rodriguez vs. Texas, Pablo Lopez vs. Milwaukee, Sonny Gray vs. Atlanta, and Framber Valdez vs. Seattle.       

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon

I mentioned above that the Chicago White Sox have the worst run differential in the game at -183.  Only the Rockies have given up more runs than the White Sox and they somewhat get a pass as they play half their games in Coors.  Outside of Garrett Crochet, this pitching staff is atrocious and it’s followed by a bullpen that is even worse. This is a bullpen that has the third-worst ERA in baseball this season. 

Back to Cannon as he’s been terrible.  Over the last month, Cannon has an ERA of 6.27 and xFIP and SIERA that aren’t much better as they are hovering north of 5.  He’s allowed 4 homers and 7 barrels over his last 20 innings of work.  He’s someone that we can rely on to let hitters put the ball in play as he also has an 84% contact rate over that same 20-inning stretch.  He’s a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a ton of contact.  That’s where magic tends to happen. 

The Royals broke out for 7 runs last night thanks to a monster game from Bobby Witt Jr.  He’s going to be the core to this Royals stack tonight as he’s one of the best hitters in the league.  He has 13 hits in his last 32 AB and has combined for 14 runs and rbi.  He’s heating up and in this matchup should smash.  14 of his 17 homers this season have come against righties and he has a .953 OPS against them in 2024.  He’s going to cost an arm and a leg tonight, but he’s worth it. 

After Witt, I’m going to focus on getting some lefties into this stack as Cannon has allowed a .407 wOBA to them and an OPS of .956.  That means guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, and Michael Massey will be in play.  If you want to get some value, Kyle Isbel is also in play as he’s just $2.8k tonight. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Justin Wrobleski

I think the Red Sox could be a sneaky bunch tonight.  If we look at Wrobleski’s starts this season, they have not been good.  He currently owns a 6.30 ERA in his young career.  He’s allowed 4 homers in just his 10 innings of work and he’s also allowed 6 barrels thanks a high flyball rate and a very high hard-hit rate. 

Also, across the 2 starts the Dodgers have allowed a combined 20 runs.  Those 2 starts weren’t really against lineups that I’d call scary either as they were against the Brewers and Tigers.  While the Red Sox typically do strike out quite a bit vs. lefties, they can hit for some power as they have an average OPS over .700. 

I’m going to focus on a few bats here.  First, I’ll look to Tyler O’Neill.  He’s crushed lefties, with a .437 wOBA and an OPS of 1.053.  Yes, he also K’s a bunch vs. lefties but with Wrobleski being a low K guy I’m not going to be overly concerned with the strikeouts here.  Since I’m spending up on the Royals, after O’Neill I’m going to look to some value and this lineup will have that for us today. 

Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Jamie Westbrook, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all under $4k and will be able to help us round out the lineup here without costing us much.  While I’m focused on the righties here, guys like Rafael Dever and Jarren Duran also going to be very much in play here as Wrobleski has been terrible vs. lefties. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Brayan Bello, Giants vs. Kyle Freeland, and Orioles vs. Max Scherzer.  The Diamondbacks can also be a sneaky spot for offense tonight vs. Kyle Hendricks, especially the lefties like Joc Pederson, Alek Thomas, and Geraldo Perdomo. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Were you and a loved one forced to spend time together over the last few days thanks to the MLB All-Star break?  Well, have no fear because that time is over.  Baseball is back and I’m more excited than ever to jump back into some MLB DFS.  Tonight we have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS to work with this.  At first glance, this is a fun-looking slate that can take us in many different directions. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($9.5k on DK) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Thanks to a bad back, Jack Flaherty somewhat hobbled into the break.  He did however post a 6-inning gem, allowing a 1 ER to a very potent Guardians lineup.  He’s been one of the top pitchers in baseball this season, with a 3.13 ERA and a K/9 of 11.27.  What has helped Flaherty this season has been the ability to get the ball over the plate.  His BB/9 of just 1.52 is a career-low and well below his career average of 3.19.  If he can continue to not walk hitters, he’ll be in the Cy Young convo just like he was back in 2019. 

This is a solid matchup for him tonight vs. a Blue Jays team that has disappointed and will more than likely be a seller at the deadline in a couple of weeks.  The one knock on this matchup tonight is that the Blue Jays aren’t a huge strikeout team, evidenced by their season-long k rate of just 19% vs. righties.  That said, over the last month they have struck out 24% of the time vs. righties so they’ve become more of a free-swinging team.  Look for Flaherty to have a strong night coming out of the break. 

Hunter Brown ($8,4k on DK) vs. Seattle

I’ve been targeting the Mariners with righties all season long and that trend will continue tonight.  I’ve been targeting them vs. righties because they have a massive 29% K rate vs. them this season.  If we look at the projected lineup for tonight’s game, that number balloons up to nearly 40% over the last month.  This lineup has 7 guys with a K rate over 30% vs. righties over the last 30 days.  Just crazy stuff. 

That shouldn’t take away from Brown; I’d recommend him vs. most teams.  He’s someone who has been underpriced all season long and remains underpriced tonight at his $8.4k salary on DK.  Over his last 7 starts, he has 6 over 18 DK points and 5 over 23.  This is a ceiling-type game for him this evening. 

The other pitchers I have an interest in today will be Gerrit Cole vs. Tampa, Michael Wacha vs. Chicago, and Sean Manea vs. Miami.          

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Harrison

I for one am not a huge fan of Coors slates.  Even though they can be fun, you’ll always need to make the decision “do I play Coors or do I fade Coors”.  I’m playing Coors tonight and I’m going to side with the Rockies side of things.  For starters, of all the pitchers going tonight, no one has a higher xFIP or SIERA over the last 30 days than Kyle Harrison. 

Granted, it’s only been 2 starts but if we look at the metrics of those 2 starts they haven’t been good.  While he gave up just 1 ER to the Twins he got battered in the start, allowing a nearly 65% hard-hit rate.  The start before was worse as he allowed 4 ER to the Guardians in just 3 innings of work. 

If we look at the Rockies lineup, they’ve been much better vs. lefties than righties.  Brendon Doyle has led the way and has been one of the better hitters vs. lefties this season.  On the year, Doyle has a .829 OPS vs. them and has been even better vs. late, with a .481 wOBA and a .379 ISO.  He’s going to be a core bat for me in this stack tonight, even at his $5k price. 

Another bat I like here will be Michael Toglia and his 9 homers vs. lefties this season.  His price of $4.3k is very reasonable, especially considering the environment and his production vs. southpaws this season.  I’ll round out this stack with guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rogers, Jacob Stallings, and Elias Diaz. 

Oakland Athletics vs. Griffin Canning

If you know me, you know I love attacking Griffin Canning.  He’s someone who just gives up a whole ton of contact and more often than not, that contact is considered hard contact.  Over his last 6 starts, Canning has given up at least 4 ER in 4 of them.  His season-long ERA is sitting at a high 4.84 and his xFIP and SIERA are both hovering around that number as well. 

He’s terrible and I plan on attacking him tonight with a lineup that has put up some monster numbers over the last couple of weeks.  I need to preface this with that they are a high risk as they can go very quiet, very quickly.  That said, they are mostly cheap tonight and again, facing a gas can in Griffin Canning.

I’ll start off this stack with the man, the myth, the legend, Lawrence Butler.  Butler wrapped up the first half with a 3 homer, 6 RBI game vs. the Phillies.  Over his last 41 AB, he’s had 8 barrels and a 60% hard-hit rate.  Against righties this season he’s up to 9 homers and 25 RBI.  His price tag of just $3k on DK tonight will allow for a ton of flexibility. 

I’m also going to be on Shea Langeliers tonight.  He’s tied for the team lead in homers against righties this season with 14 and has also driven in 40 runs vs. them.  He’s also a nice value at just $3.9k.  The main hitter in this lineup though is Brent Rooker.  He’s been dynamite over the last couple of weeks, with 20 hits in his last 41 AB and 6 homers.  I’ll make sure to plug him into this stack.  Other bats to include here will be Max Schuermann, Seth Brown, and Zack Gelof.

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. Edward Cabrera, Giants vs. Cal Quantrill, Angels vs. JP Sears, and Dodgers vs. Nick Pivetta. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all!  Today we’ll have 2 fairly decent slates to play with it being Saturday.  I’m going to be focused on the 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4pm EST.  This is a slate that lacks a real clear path for pitching.  The 5 most expensive pitches face really strong offenses in the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Royals, and Astros.  I’m more than likely going to fade those pitchers and go with pitchers in the mid-tier as they present the best possible matchups. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Andrew Abbott ($8.5k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Andrew Abbott is in a nice stretch of pitching right now.  We have to go back to May to find a game where he gave up more than 3 ER.  Over the last month, Abbott has pitched to an ERA of 2.48.  While the xFIP and SIERA are considerably higher and show that he’s due for some negative regression, I don’t see it happening quite yet and I don’t see it happening at the hands of the Miami Marlins. 

The Marlins have been dreadful vs. lefties this season as they have an OPS of .596 and a wOBA of .264.  They have done little to no damage at all against them.  For Abbott’s sake, he’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a 7 inning game that saw him give up 0 ER and strike out 8 Rockies.  A duplicate of that outing is very much in play for him today. 

Christian Scott ($7.1k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

I preach that in DFS when looking for pitchers, we need to find pitchers who have extreme K upside.  While Christian Scott hasn’t shown that much of late, he does have that ability deep down inside him.  Throughout his minor league career, he was someone that had a K/9 of 10 or higher, more often than not it being higher than 10. 

He gets to face a team in the Rockies that has struck out more than 25% of the time this season to righties and has struck out more than 31% of the time over the last week.  This projected lineup for the Rockies today has 6 guys in it who have K rates over 23% to righties over the last 30 days.  I’m chasing a ceiling-type game here for the Mets young righty. 

The other pitcher I have an interest in today will be Tyler Phillips of the Phillies.  He was masterful in his big league debut and he gets a tasty matchup today vs. Oakland.  The quartet of Grayson Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Luis Gil, and Nathan Eovaldi are all in play, I just think they have a more floor-type game due to the matchups they face today.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Mitch Spense

The Philadelphia Phillies are heading into the All-Star Break healthy and that should scare the rest of baseball.  This week they got both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper back.  There is also the very real possibility that JT Realmuto will make his return either today or tomorrow.  That will make one of the most feared lineups in baseball, whole again. 

They get a great matchup today vs. a pitcher in Mitch Spense that plays right into the wheelhouse of the Phillies, lefty power.  Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .283 ISO and a .397 wOBA vs. Spence.  Lefties also have a .472 slugging % vs. him.  The heart and soul of this Phillies lineup is lefty and with what I plan on spending on pitching today, I should be able to afford the meat of this lineup.

Core Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh

Secondary Bats:  Treat Turner, Alec Bohm

Value Bats: Johan Rojas, Garrett Stubbs

Texas Ranger vs. Spencer Arrighetti

If we take out Spencer Arrighetti’s game against the Rockies (Reason A why I’m on Christian Scott), we can see a pitcher who has really struggled.  He’s given up 7 ER to the Tigers and 6 to the Blue Jays. He’s someone that has plenty of blow-up games under his belt and I think he has another one today vs. a very competent Texas Rangers’ lineup.  Of the teams playing today, the Rangers have scored the third most runs of any team over the last week. 

They also line up really well today with Arrighetti.  Arrighetti really struggles vs. lefties (vs. righties too).  They have a .300 ISO and a .469 wOBA vs. him over the last month.  They also have an OPS over 1.000 vs. him this year.  I’m going to be lock and loading all the lefties I can here. 

Core Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe

Secondary Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Value Bats:  Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, Travis Jankowski

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. Ryan Feltner, Orioles vs. Luis Gil, and Guardians vs. Zack Littell. Nats vs. Dallas Keuchel also very much in play!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  We’re almost at the All-Star break as we head into the last series of the first half.  Tonight, we’ll have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  One thing we’ll need to do tonight is monitor the weather.  There are a handful of games that will be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl.  There are at least 2 games that will be played in Baltimore and New York that have a very real PPD risk.  This slate will bring us two of the top young arms in the league in very favorable matchups.    

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Garrett Crochet ($10.3k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Garrett Crochet gets a dynamite matchup tonight vs. a Pirates team that has struggled vs. lefties.  Against lefties this season, the Pirates have struck out nearly 25% while hitting for almost no power at a .688 OPS.  Their projected lineup tonight has 6 guys with a K rate over 27% vs. lefties this season.  Half of the lineup tonight also has a wOBA under .300 vs. lefties this season. 

This has a ceiling-type game written all over it for Crochet.  We’ve seen him get upwards of 13 K’s on the year and he’s reached double-digit strikeouts 6 times on the year. With this matchup against a rough Pirates lineup, he has double-digit strikeout upside.  He’s my SP1 tonight and I’m not looking back. 

Cole Ragans ($8.5k on DK) vs. Boston Red Sox

While the Red Sox have been a team that we’ve often used to stack against righties, the opposite can be said when talking lefties.  No team is striking out at a higher rate against lefties than the Red Sox.  At a 29.2% K rate, the Red Sox are more than 300 basis points clear of the next worst team.  Even though they can show some pop vs. lefties, I’m going to be chasing the K’s and we’ll be chasing the K’s from one of the best in the game this season in Cole Ragans. 

Over the last month, Ragans has been strong with a 3.82 ERA and a nearly 29% K rate.  Since early May, he has just one start allowing more than 3 ER and that was against a strong Guardians team.  He continues to pile up K’s, with 25 over his last 3 starts.  There’s some power risk here, but he has a ton of upside in a matchup against a team that K’s a ton vs. lefties.    

Other pitchers I like today will be Sean Manea (weather permitting) vs. Colorado, Sonny Gray vs. Chicago, Joe Ryan vs. San Francisco, Freddy Peralta vs. a struggling Nats lineup, and Hunter Brown vs. Texas.     

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Tanner Gordon

I really hope the weather gods work out for us tonight because the Mets are rolling and they get a great matchup vs. a young Rockies pitcher that did not look good in his Major League debut.  In his debut, Gordon allowed 5 runs in just over 6 innings of work.  I’ll cut him a bit of slack as pitching in Coors is never easy.  That said, his metrics for the start just weren’t any good. 

He allowed a nearly 84% contact and a nearly 37% hard-hit rate.  That’s a lot of hard-hit balls being put into play.  In his 6 innings of work, he also allowed 2 bombs.  If we look at his numbers at AAA with both the Rockies and Braves, they have not been good either.  He had an ERA of 5.35 in 7 starts in Alberquerque and then also had an ERA of 5.53 in 26 starts in the minors in 2023. 

Core Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez

Secondary Bats:  Pete Alonso, JD Martinez

Value Bats: Jeff McNeill, Harrison Bader

Braves lefties vs. Randy Vasquez

If you’re a lefty bat from the Braves, you are 100% in play tonight.  Randy Vasquez overall isn’t a terrible pitcher.  Over the last month, he owns an ERA that isn’t terrible at 4.12.  His xFIP is slightly higher over the last month and is approaching 5.  His SIERA over the last month is a smidge higher at 5.16.  Where we want to attack Vasquez is specifically with lefties. 

Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .204 ISO and a .470 wOBA vs. him.  They also have just a 4.1% K rate vs. him.  On the year, lefties have a massive slash line of .431/477/.667 vs. him.  For those at home without a working calculator, that’s an OPS of 1.144.  Just terrible, very terrible stuff but music to ours

Core Bats: Matt Olson, Jarred Kelenic, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Bats: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Adam Duval

Value Bats:  Eddie Rosario

If for some miracle the O’s/Yanks game plays tonight, I’ll be all over the Yankees.  Cade Povich is coming off a miserable start vs. the A’s and all of his advanced metrics say it wasn’t an anomaly.  Both sides of the plate would be in play.  I just don’t think this game pays today. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Reds vs. Yonny Chirinos, Marlins lefties vs. Carson Spiers, Cardinals vs. Kyle Hendricks, Mariners vs. Tyler Anderson, Diamondbacks vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Toronto vs. Ryne Nelson, Twins vs. Kyle Harrison.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate!  It’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a large slate of games. Tonight we have ourselves a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, this slate lacks a true ace.  While we have some solid pitchers on the slate, there isn’t a single arm that stands out as a must-play.  This will mean that ownership will be spread out.  As you saw in the first line, Patrick Corbin will be on the hill and he’ll be on the hill against my New York Mets.  You know what that will mean!

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Nick PIvetta ($9.6k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

I will never feel comfortable using Nick Pivetta as my SP1.  This slate is really lacking with aces though so I’m going to chase the upside here.  Pivetta is coming off arguably his best start of the season.  In his last outing, he went 7 strong innings against the Marlins, giving up 0 ER while striking out a season-high 10 batters.  Those 10 strikeouts were the second time he’s gotten into the double-digit K territory this season. 

He gets an equally tasty matchup today vs. an Oakland team that is 25 games under .500 for the season.  Yes, they’ve put up some runs over the last week but it was against 2 starters who weren’t good in Brayan Bellow and Cade Povich.  While Pivetta has had his fair share of struggles this season, he is someone who can have a high ceiling and this is a high-ceiling type of game in my opinion. He’s risky, but he also has immense upside in a matchup against a team that is striking out 27% of the time this season vs. righties. 

Michael Wacha vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While the Cardinals have played better baseball this season, they are still a team that struggles against righties.  On the year, they have a nearly 24% K rate vs. righties and just a .148 ISO.  The projected lineup for the Cardinals tonight has 4 guys with a K rate vs. righties this season of at least 27%.  There is upside for Wacha tonight in this matchup.  Wacha for his part has pitched well this season, and especially well over the last month or so. 

Since mid-May, Wacha hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any start and that’s a stretch of 7 starts.  Over that stretch, he’s faced some tough competition in the Padres, Rangers, Guardians, and Tampa Bay twice.  He’s not a sexy pick as he rarely gets more than 7 K’s, but he’s someone who will provide a high floor as he’s been under 16 DK points just once in the last 2 months. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Framber Valdez vs. Miami, Luis Severino vs. Washington, Tobias Myers vs. Pittsburgh, Chris Bassitt vs. San Fran, and Logan Webb vs. Toronto.  As you can see by this list, we have no pitcher that screams upside.     

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin

3 more months.  I bet the Nationals front office is looking at the calendar and realizing they will have Patrick Corbin on the roster for just 3 more months.  Since signing with the Nats back in 2019, he’s had just one season with an ERA under 4 and just 2 seasons with an ERA under 5.  Over the last 4 seasons, he’s had ERA’s of 5.82, 6.31, 5.2 and this season at 5.49.  His time in DC has been a complete disaster. 

Each year since 2018, his K/9 has continued to decrease and his BB/9 has continued to increase.  His only saving grace this season is that his HR/FB is at the lowest point since 2018.  That should change tonight vs. a Mets that has crushed lefties this season, with a .185 ISO and a .780 OPS.  With Corbin, we want the righties.  13 of the 14 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties and 218 of the 252 homers he’s given up in his career have been to righties. 

Core Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Francisco Lindor, Harrison Bader , Franciso Alvarez

Secondary Bats:  Brandon Nimmo

Value Bats: Jose Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor

Boston Red Sox vs. JP Sears

The Red Sox came through for us last night, putting up a 12 spot.  While the matchup isn’t as solid as last night, it’s still a strong spot for them.  Over the last month, JP Sears has been terrible.  He owns an ERA of 7.48 and an xFIP over 6 over his last 21 innings of work. 

To make matters even better for us tonight, the A’s used their bullpen for nearly 8 innings last night as Joey Estes couldn’t make it out of the second inning.  This should mean that Sears will have a bit of a longer leash tonight.  Normally the concern for the Red Sox against lefties is their strike outs.  Sears is a low K person as his K rate is just 16% this season.  I won’t be as worried about K’s here. 

Core Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rafael Devers

Secondary Bats: Jarren Duran

Value Bats:  Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Dom Smith

I didn’t mention them in my top 2, but the Reds vs. Kyle Freeland are very much in play. If you look at Freeland’s ERA over the last month it’s strong at just 1.37. His xFIP tells us a completely different story as it’s nearly 3 runs higher. The same can be said for his SIERA. He’s due for regression and it should come tonight. Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer will be my priority with that stack.

Other stacks I like today will be the Braves vs. Slade Cecconi, Brewers vs. Martin Perez, Rangers vs. Griffin Canning, and Angels vs. Michael Lorenzen

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

It’s Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have a large slate of games to work with.  Tonight, we have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us last night’s expected ace Chris Sale as his start was pushed back a day.  There will be some weather concerns tonight as 3 games have some rain in the forecast.  One involves one of the top pitchers on the slate in Bailey Ober.  Yes, you read that right.  This slate will also bring us some excellent spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Chris Sale ($10.4k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I normally fade lefties against the Dbacks as they are one of the better teams in the league vs. southpaws.  That said, Chris Sale is one of the few starters in the league that is essentially matchup-proof.  Well, as long as he isn’t starting against the A’s that is.  A healthy Chris Sale is good for baseball and Sale is finally healthy this season.  On the year, he’s posted an impressive 33% K rate. 

His splits against lefties and righties have been pretty consistent this season.  Over the last 30 days, Sale’s K rate has increased to nearly 38%.  Since April 19, Sale has just 4 starts where he’s allowed 2 or more ER.  That’s across 12 starts.  Over that stretch, Sale has the same number of starts having double-digit K’s as he does allowing 2 ER or more.  Just crazy stuff from him this season.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Bailey Ober ($8.7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober is in the middle of one of the finest stretches of his young career.  Over the last month, Ober has been spectacular.  He owns a 2.53 ERA (xFIP of 2.73) and a strikeout rate that is over 32%.  He has 4 straight starts with at least 8 K’s.  Some will say that it has been matchup driven and it probably has.  He’s faced the Tigers, Mariners, and the A’s twice over those 4 games. 

He gets arguably an even better matchup tonight as he takes on the 26-67 Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox have a league-worst run differential at -166.  Against righties this season, the White Sox have struck out nearly 24% of the time and have an ISO of just .129.  Now anything can happen and he can certainly regress a bit, but this matchup is Ober’s for the taking and he should smash tonight.  I’m hoping the weather holds out for us as that’s the only thing that can slow him down at this point. 

If the Twins/Sox game gets called, I’m going to pivot to Yusei Kikuchi.  He’s due for some positive regression as his xFIP is nearly 3 runs lower than his ERA.  While he’s given up some bombs, he’s been rather unlucky as his LOB % is just 75% and his BABIP is a massive .362.  The Giants have not been good recently as they have a 33% K rate over the last week and have scored just 22 runs. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Logan Gilbert vs. San Diego, Ronel Blanco vs. Miami, Jake Irvin vs. the Mets, and Zac Gallen vs. Atlanta.  We’ll have plenty of options on the mound tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox lefties vs. Joe Estes

If we take a look at the splits for Joey Estes, he could not line up any better for us than he does as he struggles mightily vs. lefties.  On the year, Estes has just a 15% K rate vs. lefties and a 9% walk rate.  He’s allowing a flyball rate of more than 34% and a hard-hit rate that is approaching 53%.  This has allowed lefties to have a .264 ISO and a .369 wOBA against him.  Across 65 innings at the Major League level, Estes has allowed 11 homers, 7 of which have come against lefties.  They have a slugging % over .900 vs. him in his career. 

The Red Sox lineup tonight should have upwards of 6 lefties in it.  This has a nightmare all over it for Estes tonight.  With the Red Sox, the good thing for us is that the core lefties in this group aren’t a pitch-hit risk so we should be able to count on them for the entire game.  It’s going to be hot in the North East today and we’ve got a wind that’s blowing out so the ball will travel, and the ball will travel far!

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton

Secondary Bats:  Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu

Value Bats: Dom Smith, Masataka Yoshida

Mariners lefties vs. Adam Mazur

Adam Mazur is another pitcher who is absolutely atrocious vs. lefties.  The Padres rookie continues to struggle vs. lefties this season as they have an OPS of 1.108 vs him this season and a wOBA of .467.  Both of those numbers are just terrible.  I’ve been avoiding stacking the Mariners this season because of their propensity to strike out against righties.  Mazur is just a different breed though when it comes to striking out hitters. 

His K/9 this year is sitting at just 5.13 and his BB/9 is higher at 5.81.  With him not missing any bats, I’m not going to be as worried tonight about strikeouts.  Mazur has also struggled mightily at home, with an ERA of 10.66 in San Diego compared to “just” 4.61 on the road.  The Mariners have a few lefties that have some pop and those are the bats I’m going to be targeting here. 

Core Bats: Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford

Secondary Bats: Mitch Garver, Julio Rodriguez, Ty France

Value Bats:  Dominic Canzone, Josh Rojas

Other stacks I like today will the Blue Jays vs. Blake Snell, Rangers vs. Roansy Contreras and Pirates vs. Colin Rea,

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday y’all!  We made it to the weekend!  I’ll be focused on the 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4pm est.  This is a slate that has one of the up-and-coming stud pitchers in a phenomenal matchup today.  After that, there’s a steep decline in pitching so we’ll want to navigate pretty carefully.  This slate does bring us some really solid spots for hitting though. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Garrett Crochet ($10.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Garrett Crochet has taken MLB by storm this year.  He continues to mow down hitters at a really solid pace.  Over the last month, he’s been brilliant as he has a near 40% K rate.  We’ve seen him dominate teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, Brewers, and Orioles.  He is becoming matchup-proof with how dominant he’s been. 

While I focused on his K’s, he’s also been doing a really solid job of keeping the ball on the ground when hitters do make contact.  His GB rate over the last month is over 43%.  Crochet gets a great matchup today vs. a really bad team in the Marlins.  At 30-58 the Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league, leading only this same White Sox team.  I’m not going to overthink this one.  Crochet is my SP1 today by a country mile. 

Taj Bradley ($8.5k on DK) vs. Texas Rangers

Taj Bradley is quietly having a really strong season for the Rays.  The young right-hander is sporting a 3.42 ERA on the season and has an xFIP even lower than that.  His K/9 on the year is an impressive 11.71.  The one area of concern for Bradley is his propensity to walk batters.  His BB/9 on the year is a concerning 3.25 and over the last month it’s a smidge higher at 3.41. 

I’m willing to overlook that here as he brings us some real K upside at a relatively low price.  We’ve seen him mow down 11 hitters in 2 of his last 4 games.  With the Rangers, we should expect to see a smaller amount of K’s as they don’t K too often.  That said, Bradley is cheap enough that we really only need 6-7 K’s out of him to exceed value.  I think he can get there for us. 

Andrew Heaney is another pitcher that should do well today. The Rays have struggled vs lefties this season and Heaney is underpriced for this matchup.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be McKenzie Gore vs. St. Louis, Hunter Green vs. Detroit, and if you want to risk it and play the trend go with Yariel Rodriguez vs. Seattle. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luis Medina

Across 24 innings over the last month, Luis Medina has struggled.  He’s pitched to an ERA of 5.92 over that stretch and his xFIP of 5.84 indicates we’re getting what he is.  A bad pitcher.  It hasn’t been all bad as he gave up just 1 ER to both the Dbacks and Royals.  Both of those lineups though have periods where they can get really cold. 

That said, over the last month he has more starts giving up 4 ER than he has given up less than 4 ER.  He should continue to struggle today as he takes on one of the top offenses in the league in the Orioles.  Against righties this season, the Orioles have a .773 OPS and a .208 ISO.  On most nights, they are a pitcher’s worst nightmare. 

Core Bats: Gunner Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander

Secondary Bats:  Ryan O’hearn, Jordan Westburg

Value Bats: Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins

New York Mets vs. Bailey Falter

I’m looking for the Mets to snap their mini 3-game losing streak today.  They were embarrassed by the buckos last night and I can see them returning the favor today.  Bailey Falter has had an up and down season.  We’ve seen him throw some really competent games at times, and then we’ve also seen him struggle at times as evidenced by his 5 ER 2k performance against the Reds a couple of weeks ago. 

Falter is someone who really struggles with control at times.  His BB/9 over the last month is approaching 4 and his WHIP is one of the worst marks on the day at 1.67.  If the New York Mets can be patient here, they can sit on their pitches and get a whole bunch of runners on.  They’ve been one of the better teams in baseball this season against lefties and they face a very beatable lefty today.  Look for them to put up a ton of runs today. 

Core Bats: Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo

Value Bats:  Jose Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor

They aren’t in my top 2, but i also really like the Reds vs. Matt Manning. He struggled earlier in the year and he’ll struggle today as well. Other stacks I like today will be the Giants vs. Logan Allen, Mariners vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Blue Jays vs. Emmerson Hancock, and Rays vs. Andrew Heaney

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  I hope you all had a great Independence Day and were able to celebrate with friends and family.  Although today may feel like the weekend, it’s Friday and that means we have a massive slate.  Tonight, we have a 12-game slate of MLB DFS to play with.  This slate has the potential to be low-scoring as we have just one team that has an implied run total over 5.  That’s the Royals and they’ll be playing in Coors. We have a decent amount of pitching options on this slate. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tyler Glasnow ($10.8k on DK) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Glasnow is not only the best real-life pitcher on this slate, he’s also far and away the best fantasy pitcher as well.  On the year, Glasnow has averaged nearly 24 DK points a game.  After posting back-to-back 35 DK point outings, he had an absolutely miserable last start vs. the Giants.  Things happen and we saw that happen to Chris Sale a few weeks ago where he had a string of dominant outings and then imploded.  His last start was an anomaly and he’ll get back on the saddle tonight. 

His numbers over the last month are pretty crazy.  He has a K rate over 35% and is also inducing an extreme number of groundballs at nearly 52%.  I’m not going to overthink this one tonight.  The Brewers will face their post-Coors hangover and get dominated by Tyler Glasnow.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Kevin Gausman ($8.3k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

No team in baseball provides a pitcher with the strikeout upside as the Mariners do.  So far in 2024, the Mariners have struck out 912 times.  That’s 60 more times than the nearest team.  Against righties this season, they have a whopping 29% k rate.  If we look at the projected lineup for the Mariners, they have 4 guys who have K rates over 30% against righties. 

While Kevin Gausman may not be what he used to be, he still possesses some strikeout ability as he’s reached double-digit strikeouts multiple times this season.  He’s always at risk of blowing up, so he will be best reserved for GPP’s, but this is the type of matchup tonight that he should excel in.  I’ve been attacking the Mariners with strikeout pitchers all season and I have no plans on stopping any time soon!

Other pitchers I like today are will be Drew Thorpe vs. the Marlins, Tanner Bibbee vs. the Giants, Pablo Lopez vs. the Astros, and Cole Ragans vs. the Rockies.  I also like Reese Olson quite a bit vs. the Reds.  We have plenty of options to work with today.       

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Freeland

While the ERA for Kyle Freeland has been really solid over the last month, his SIERA and xFIP indicate a completely different story.  One of the things that I look for when looking to see if a pitcher is going to show some regression is the difference between their ERA and xFIP.  Freeland’s ERA over the last month is really good at 1.42.  His xFIP however is a full 3 runs higher at 4.71. 

He’s due for some major regression and it’s going to happen tonight at the hands of the Royals.  One of the major reasons for the difference here is that Freeland gives up a boatload of fly balls, while simultaneously giving up a boatload of contact.  He’s also been extremely lucky with a BABIP of just .189.  You can only get so lucky for so long before things start to unravel.  They’ll unravel tonight. 

Core Bats: Sal Perez, Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Bats:  Maikel Garcia

Value Bats: Nick Loftin, Freddy Fermin

Oakland Athletics vs. Albert Suarez

Since I’m paying all the way up for the Royals tonight, I need a cheap stack and the A’s will give me that.  Living in Baltimore and having a family that roots for the O’s, I watch just about every O’s game.  I don’t think Suarez is good, at all.  If the O’s weren’t ransacked by injuries to their pitching staff, Suarez would be pitching in Norfolk and not Balitmore. 

Like Freeland, he’s due for some major regression. His ERA over the last month is sitting at just 3.6.  If we look at his xFIP though, it’s nearly 2 runs higher at 5.52.  He’s someone that gives up way too much contact at nearly 83% and has one of the highest line drive %s at nearly 28%.  The A’s are a terrible franchise, but one that should put up some runs tonight at a relatively low cost. 

Core/Value Bats: Brent Rooker (if you can afford him), Zack Geloff, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Hogan Harris, Blue Jays vs. Luis Castillo, Diamondbacks lefties vs. Randy Vasquez, Padres vs. Slade Cecconi, and Rays vs. Michael Lorenzon

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!