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MLB DFS Top Plays

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1

We are almost to the end of the regular season and we do get a full slate tonight although most teams have packed it in for the season. With that said, the list of starters will continue to be relatively short as we can focus on exactly who is important and who isn’t in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1

The bad news is there are not a lot of trustworthy arms tonight. The one that stands out the quickest is Clayton Kershaw. He and the Dodgers are clawing to stay out of the Wild Card spot and in his last start, Kershaw got smacked around. That’s not how he wants to go into the postseason so I fully expect him to throw 75-90 pitches and try to be in his best form. Kershaw is still using the slider as his primary pitch and if he qualified, it would be the highest-rated slider on FanGraphs. It just so happens that Milwaukee is 29th against that pitch and is 0.2 away from being dead last. That is not a good matchup for them tonight and they cannot move their seeding at all. The Brewers have also been seventh in K rate against lefties all year at 24% and Kershaw has a 30.5% K rate against righties with a 2.79 xFIP. He’s slated to face six righties and the pitcher spot and I’m willing to pay the premium.

I would expect Kershaw to be chalky and that opens up a very interesting pivot in Sandy Alcantara. You could argue to play both but that is an expensive route to take and even though Miami doesn’t have a thing to play for, Alcantara is still pitching his typical workload. Philly could be eliminated by the time this game takes place but no matter what, Alcantara has been great this season. He’s also been in top form in Miami with a 2.95 xFIP, a 26.6% K rate, a 2.17 ERA, and a .235 wOBA. He has been worse against lefties on the year but a significant chunk of that has come from his road starts. The last start against the Phillies in Philly was rough but the first two generated at least 20 DK and had one over 30. Alcantara features a slider and changeup that both have a wOBA under .280 and a whiff rate over 30%.

In that same game, Ranger Suarez should be very, very chalky again as well. DK did finally raise the price to what he deserved to be but he’s coming off a 40 DK point start. That’s not even mentioning the fact that Rich Hill was chalk last night and Suarez has been pitching much better than he has. Suarez is still rocking an elite combo of a 25.1% K rate and a 60.6% ground ball rate and that could not be better for DFS. We’re either getting points for the whiffs or the ball isn’t in the air to do a lot of damage. While his strikeout rate is higher against lefties at 31.4%, it’s still 22.8% against righties and the hard-hit rate is just 29.1%. The sinker and change are his main weapons with over 70 strikeouts and both are under a .260 wOBA. We could game stack this one in GPP.

There are a bunch of talented pitchers that generally we like but face very difficult spots and I will not really be interested unless they draw a weird lineup. That list includes Shane McClanahan, Lance Lynn, Sean Manaea, and Nestor Cortes. McClanahan especially could see a shorter start with the Rays locked into the number one seed. I think there are two other potential plays in Marco Gonzales and Jose Suarez, two lefties in the same game. I don’t particularly like the salary for Gonzales but he’s just a hair under averaging 19 DK points in the past 10 games. The crafty veteran lefty draws an Angels lineup that has been in the bottom-eight of all of our offensive categories since the deadline. He is insanely risky at this salary because his xFIP against righties is 5.64 and not typically what we talk about. However, the Angels have been so bad and Gonzales has been so strong that he is worth a look.

Suarez is a lot cheaper but there is not a lot of safety here since the Mariners are fighting and Suarez is just not a stable option. The K rate is 20.3% but the swinging-strike rate is 11.2% which is fairly high. Seattle is 17th and 27th against the curveball and changeup, which make up almost 50% of the pitch types for Suarez. Now the lineup is important for him because he is rough against lefties with a .405 wOBA and a 4.98 xFIP, while the Mariners are projected for three. If that’s all, the .269 wOBA against righties and a 1.07 WHIP is much more appealing so we would need to know what he’s looking at. It doesn’t hurt that Seattle is fourth in K rate against lefties, either.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1 Stacks

I’m looking to afford the Kershaw/Suarez duo to start but I’m jamming in Blue Jays as well. They will get Thomas Eshelman as a long reliever and through 71 batters faced, he has a .427 wOBA, a 6.30 xFIP, and just a 7% K rate against the right side of the plate. He’s throwing a fastball almost half the time and Marcus Semien, George Springer, and Bo Bichette are in the top five of the team against that pitch. They also sit above a .340 wOBA and a .170 ISO. Springer and Semien are especially appealing with their ISO’s over .290 on the year and we know that if you can’t miss bats against the Jays, you’re not going to have much success.

That means we need salary relief and we’re going to get in the Cubs. they’re always a risk because they whiff so much but at the same time, they have some hitters who have played well since the deadline like Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega, and Ian Happ. All of these hitters have a wOBA over .335 and Schwindel is at a .415 mark, in addition to all of them being over a .200 ISO. They’re going to start with Daniel Hudson but he likely doesn’t stick around long and then we’re into the bullpen. That trio is plenty cheap for their performance and only Happ has a K rate above 19%. I’ll roll with that to get the pitching I want and at least three Blue Jays bats.

White Sox against Wily Peralta
Royals against John Gant
Red Sox against Josh Rogers
Mets lefties against Huascar Ynoa
Orioles against Steven Matz

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30

We have a surprisingly larger Monday slate with nine games and it is fairly loaded up top. The challenge may come in finding options that are a little cheaper, but that’s what the Starting Rotation 8.30 is here to do!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30 – Main Targets

The Ace Tier

It’s still kind of crazy to me every fifth day to talk about Robbie Ray as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the man just goes out and shoves almost every single time. His four-seam/slider combo has been outstanding and they have combined for 182 strikeouts. Both of those pitches have a wOBA under .295 and the whiff rate on the slider is 46.6%. Baltimore is heavily in the negative rating against both pitches and although they are much better against lefty pitchers, Ray has walked through tough spots before. Only three pitchers have a higher swinging-strike rate than Ray’s 15.4% and his K rate is over 31% on the season. Don’t expect 14 strikeouts again but he shouldn’t be under $10,000 after two straight starts of at least 35 DK points.

Trying to figure out what to do with Zack Wheeler is difficult, to say the least. His last three starts have seen him surrender 15 earned runs but he’s also struck out 23 hitters across 20.2 IP. Now, the Nationals only feature a 20.8% K rate against righty pitching since the trade deadline but it’s hard to pick on a weakness for Wheeler. His K rate is above 28.5% against both sides of the plate and his FIP/xFIP combo is lower against the right side. It’s going to be somewhat of strength on strength matchup because Wheeler’s four-seam has 98 strikeouts but the Nationals are fifth against the fastball this season. I want to see what the field is projected to do here. If he’s chalky, maybe we have different avenues but if not…there aren’t many pitchers on this slate (or others) that can match his ceiling.

Note – I don’t mean to skip past Corbin Burnes and Luis Garcia, but I can’t get behind them tonight. Burnes hasn’t struck out more than six hitters in seven of his last 10 starts (and one cam against the Cubs). Garcia is significantly worse against lefties and the Mariners are very lefty-heavy and that’s a big concern at this salary.

The Mid-Range

He is a touch expensive in my eyes, but Josiah Gray certainly has the metrics we want to chase with a 27.8% K rate. The frightening metrics are the 6.33 FIP, the 4.60 xFIP, and a 100% strand rate. It really doesn’t help that the fly-ball rate is an astounding 58.9% and in honesty, Gray seems more like a time bomb than not. Sure, maybe he whiffs enough to pay off the price but the path is narrow and we should reserve him for GPP-only. The Philly lineup should be balanced with four righties and four lefties, which works for Gray since the xFIP is similar against each side. The wOBA is higher against righties but his BABIP is much higher against that side as well. The four-seam hasn’t been great yet with a .372 wOBA but the curveball has a 60% whiff rate while the slider is at 44.6%. Those have 27 strikeouts out of his 42. Beware that Philly only has a 19.9% K rate since the deadline, but Gray has some nasty stuff.

The Texas Rangers waxed the Astros yesterday, but German Marquez is in a great spot regardless. Since the deadline, Texas is bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories, and even though they only strike out at a 22.6% clip, Marquez sees his K rate jump up to 26.4% on the road. Not only that, but the Rangers are projected for six righties in the lineup and Marquez is close to 31% in K rate against that side of the plate. The curve and slider are his strikeout pitches with 133 combined and he’ll be using the slider more often against righties. That has a .293 wOBA and 41.4% whiff rate while the curve is the weapon against lefties with a .176 wOBA. We have to be willing to look past poor starts (especially in this pitching environment) and judge it fresh each day.

The Punt Tier

Let’s get wild. A.J. Alexy is set to make his major league debut and he came to the Rangers in the Yu Darvish trade in 2017 and he’s still just 23 years old. The righty has shown off in 65 IP at AA and AAA this season with an ERA under 1.80. His K rate has been over 28.5% and it was at 33.3% in AAA and the ground ball rate has been steady at 46%. The four-seam and the curve are his main weapons and he doesn’t get a much better spot than Colorado on the road. They are dead last in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a 26.3% K rate. The Rangers need pitching options right now so if things go right, we could get five innings. At under $5,000, the risks inherent with a major league debut are worth the ticket price.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30

Note – The Angels have not announced their starting pitcher yet. If it’s Jose Quintana and not Shohei Ohtani, give me plenty of Yankee hitters.

One reason I’m willing to roll the dice on Alexy is that I want some expensive offenses, starting with Boston lefties. They draw Luis Patino, and he’s struggled mightily with the left side of the plate with a .368 wOBA, a 13.8% K rate, a 6.73 FIP, and a 7.53 xFIP. He’s using the fastball a lot against that side of the plate and we need to look at Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Verdugo, and even cheaper ones like Jarren Duran. Schwarber has been destroying every baseball thrown at him as a member of the Red Sox with a .590 wOBA and Verdugo and Devers are great too at over .390 and ISO’s of at least .194. Durran hasn’t hit his potential yet with a .277 mark but has been a little better lately.

I’m focusing on a two-man stack out in LA with Max Muncy and Mookie Betts. Drew Smyly is using his fastball about 45% of the time and it’s giving up a .385 wOBA and 11 home runs. Smyly also is about dead even in wOBA and xFIP against either side of the plate and Muncy has a .401 wOBA and .262 ISO against lefties. It just so happens that Muncy ranks third in baseball hitting fastballs, so he is an elite play tonight in my eyes. Betts can be played at second base and his numbers aren’t too far behind Muncy’s.

Rays against Nick Pivetta
Blue Jays against Chris Ellis
Diamondbacks against Chris Paddack

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22

We have 10 games in front of us today and the pitching options are…well, not the most exciting we’ve ever had. I suppose that’s what happens when you have a couple of exciting days like Friday and Saturday. We’re going to need to dig to find some options for the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 so let’s get to work and find the gems!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 – Main Targets

The Ace Tier

I suppose even though some of these names don’t have a ton of sizzle, there are some string options in the Ace Tier. The first pitcher that catches my eye is Adam Wainwright and the last time he saw this Bucco offense, he went nuts for the complete game shutout for 42 DK points. We obviously can’t expect that outcome again but he’s started against them twice this year for 17 IP, 14 K’s, and one each of a walk, earned run, and a home run. Pittsburgh is 28th against the curve and dead last against fastballs, so it’s an elite pitch type matchup for Waino. He’s been better at home for what that’s worth and the HR/9 is only 0.81 in St. Louis. His curve has only allowed a .255 wOBA and it has 58 strikeouts, making him my favorite of the Aces.

I don’t care for paying the top of the slate salary for a pitcher that has a K rate under 22% but Framber Valdez could be the exception to that rule. Seattle is ninth in ground ball rate against lefties and Valdez is a worm-killer with a 69.3% ground ball rate. The hard-hit rate is also just 27.5% but his Achilles heel is he really just has just one strikeout pitch in his curveball. It has 67 of 86 on the year and it’s the only pitch with a wOBA under .320. Three projected lefties in the Seattle lineup could help Valdez with a 30.8% K rate against that side of the plate to go with a 2.72 FIP and 3.04 xFIP. The Mariners should also help with a 26% K rate as a team, but I do prefer Waino.

Nathan Eovaldi gets arguably the softest matchup with the Rangers and has put together a strong season overall with a 3.91 ERA and 3.67 xFIP to go with a 24.1% K rate. His wOBA is higher against the right side of the plate at .336 but the xFIP is lower against righties with a 3.57 mark. Perhaps the largest fear is Eovaldi is slated to face six righties and the pitch types hurt him a little bit. He uses his curveball much more against lefties and that has a 37.3% whiff rate and a .221 wOBA with 29 strikeouts. Against righties, he’s using the slider and that only has 18 strikeouts and a .350 wOBA. Pairing Wainwright with Valdez or Eovaldi makes plenty of sense.

The Mid-Range

Touki Toussaint has been a bit of a roller-coaster in his time in the Atlanta rotation. The 4.22 xFIP isn’t too bad and neither is the 25% K rate. He’s had his share of poor starts but man this spot is great since Toussaint is better against righties with a .284 wOBA, 27.5% K rate, and a 3.17 xFIP. Baltimore typically plays seven righties and they are one of the worst offenses in baseball against righty pitching. They are no higher than 22nd in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a 24.4% K rate. His pitch mix is about equal to both sides and his curve/splitter are the strikeout combo. They have 25 of 35 already and both have a whiff rate over 41%. The Orioles are in the bottom-eight against both of those pitches and Toussaint is very intriguing.

There are a lot of metrics that scream to not play Vladimir Gutierrez but facing the Marlins can certainly help change the perspective. His K rate is average on the season at 17.8% but he’s gone over five in his past three starts. The swinging-strike rate in the past two starts has been over 12.5%, a welcome sight. His ERA would suggest he struggles at home but the xFIP is 4.67 in Cincy compared to 5.57 on the road, which is interesting. It should theoretically help his strikeout upside that Miami is projected to have six righties and the pitcher spot in the lineup. Gutierrez has a 21.1% K rate against that side with just a 4.39 xFIP. With Miami sitting sixth in K rate at 25.2%, we might be able to squeeze out one more good start from Gutierrez.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 Stacks

With five targets under $10,000, we have some freedom in building the stacks today. They bit me yesterday but I’m ready to go right back to the Blue Jays. They draw Drew Hutchison and the Tigers bullpen since Hutchison threw only 52 pitches in his first start. He walked out of that start with a 12.69 xFIP, 44.4% hard-hit rate, and a 55.6% fly-ball rate. I don’t think we need to be all that picky here. You can play Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, Corey Dickerson, Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette… I’m legitimately fine with any of them. Hutchison threw the fastball about 48% of the time and threw for a 7.7% swinging-strike rate. Detroit’s bullpen is bottom 10 in FIP, xFIP, and WHIP on the season. Game on!

We can also utilize the Astros against Tyler Anderson, who’s allowing a 44% fly-ball rate and a 4.47 xFIP against righty hitters. He really pounds the fastball and changes against righties and to no surprise, that duo has allowed 13 of 17 bombs on the season. Aledmys Diaz stands out with a .405 wOBA and .254 ISO against lefties while Yuli Gurriel sits at a .259 ISO himself. Both those hitters are in the top-four against the changeup and Gurriel and Carlos Correa are in the top 20 in baseball. I plan on mixing these two lineups as the main portions of my offense with Wainwright and Toussaint or Gutierrez as my SP2.

Red Sox against Kolby Allard (they have to break out sometime)
Brewers against Sean Nolin
Tigers against Steven Matz

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19

It’s another split slate on the diamond today and the pitching is honestly not that bad. It would be great if we had a full 10 game slate instead of a six and four-game split, but what can you do? Let’s jump right in and talk about it in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19 and identify targets for the early slate to set our foundation for green!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19 – Early

The Ace Tier

I’m really only looking at two pitchers in this range in Zack Wheeler and Shane McClanahan. Wheeler has been a nightmare to get right lately as three of his last 10 starts have been over 30 DK points but seven have been under 20. The splits really don’t give us a lean with Wheeler as both sides of the plate are under a .255 wOBA. The good news is his K rate against lefties is up to 30.7% and Arizona should roll out six plus the pitcher spot. The D-Backs are sitting just under a 25% K rate as a team and are 23rd against the fastball, which Wheeler is using 41.6%. That has also been his strikeout pitch with 82 on the year so there is a definite pathway to a ceiling game.

McClanahan gets the more difficult spot on paper since Baltimore is sixth in wRC+, 9th in wOBA, and only whiffs 22% of the time against southpaw pitching. They are two different offenses but it’s not like it mattered the last time he tangled with the Orioles when he put up 26 DK in Baltimore. The park is a better pitcher’s park today and McClanahan just flat out has some nasty stuff. His slider and curve make up around 50% of his pitch mix and they both have a whiff rate over 41%. He has been slightly fastball-heavy lately but the talented lefty is well in play. It does help that Baltimore is 25th against the fastball as well.

The Mid-Range and Punt Tier

We’re merging these two tiers on a short slate and I believe there are two options. We can start with Luis Garcia now that he’s not flirting with a $10,000 salary. The Royals are 25th against the fastball which is the Achilles heel for Garcia, giving up a .386 wOBA and a .302 average. The rest of his pitch mix is excellent with whiff rates over 41.5% and wOBA’s under .285. His K rate is over 29% and he’s holding righties to just a .245 wOBA. Lefties do have a .335 mark but the xFIP against both sides is under 3.85. KC isn’t the offense we target for strikeouts but the ceiling needed is lower than normal with Garcia.

After that, we get into the risky potion but Chris Flexen stands out as a (maybe) very popular option. Considering the opponents, he’s pitched well in the past three starts and now he gets whatever this Texas Rangers lineup looks like. His K rate is only 16.3% and he’s fared better at home so far this season with wOBA’s under .295 against each side of the plate in Seattle. That’s never what we want to hang our hat on but Flexen does generate a 45.1% ground ball rate. Just as they are against lefty pitching, Texas is dead last in all of our offensive categories except for ISO, where they are 26th. He would help afford anyone we wanted as far as hitters go.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19 Honorable Mention

Both Dylan Cease and Spencer Howard are in play but they aren’t really my favorites. Howard is super cheap but I’m not sure he can make it past around 60 pitches since he’s only thrown 45 and 44 in the past three starts. Now, he has been better against lefties with a .284 wOBA and 3.36 FIP o go with a 28.6% K rate. With the salary involved, he could get to 15 DK points but things would have to go almost exactly right and that’s a big risk.

Cease carries a 30.8% K rate and that stays true against both sides of the plate. Oakland is about average in K rate against righty pitching at around 23% but he does feel pricey at $9,100. His .298 wOBA against the right side of the plate is a concern as well even though it’s not egregious. It’s just the fact that Oakland should have six or so in their lineup. The A’s are just average against the fastball and that makes up around 55% of the mix for Cease. I do prefer McClanahan at this range, however.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19 Stacks

I know Brian is going to go with the Rays again and I fully support that. I also know where he’s going to go in the four-game evening slate, so I’m not going to repeat what he says. Instead, I’m heading to Chicago and using some cheaper White Sox hitters against Cole Irvin. Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert are super underpriced considering they both have a wOBA of at least .442 and an ISO of at least .226 against lefty pitching. Robert has been scorching since he came back from the IL and his price is non-sensical. We can fit those two, Jose Abreu and his .324 ISO against lefties alongside Rays’ hitters with an ace tier pitcher and someone like Chris Flexen.

Angels/Tigers stacks
Astros against Mike Minor

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15

It’s another Sunday in the Majors and we have a relatively normal 10 games on the main slate. Not only is the number of games normal, but the looks of the pitching are also the “new” normal meaning there may not be a plethora of options. The high end of salary looks interesting but things go south quick, so let’s dig into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15 and see what we like!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15

The Ace Tier

We’re going to do a bit of compressed look today and three pitchers are a step above the pack (and priced like it). Lucas Giolito, Sean Manaea, and Aaron Nola are all in the five-digit range and it’s honestly tough to figure them out. For one, they all have been fairly inconsistent and it can be super frustrating to pay these salaries just to ride a roller coaster. Manaea likely has the safest matchup of the two as we have seen a pitcher like Marco Gonzales score forty-two (42) DK points against this Texas offense. Manaea has also scored a combined 0.1 DK points in his past two starts, struggling mightily against Cleveland and San Diego. It can be a tough call because the splits don’t exactly favor him as Texas should have seven righties in the lineup and Manaea has a 3.83 xFIP and .315 wOBA against the right side of the plate. The changeup and curve make up only about 41% of his pitch mix but they also are under a .250 wOBA. I’d favor the matchup more than the other small warts for Manaea and he is my favorite of the trio.

Gilolito is coming off a game that saw him score 34.2 DK points and he whiffed eight. If you’ve been reading all season, Giolito has been my nemesis this season and I can’t pretend I don’t have some bias here. I’m not planning on playing him today even though the Yankees do strike out plenty. His .327 wOBA and 2.22 HR/9 against righties are far too scary for $10,700 in my eyes. One of the few aspects Giolito has going for him is the Yankees are 29th against the changeup and that has been the strikeout pitch for Giolito with 77 and it does have a 35.7% whiff rate. They’re up to 17th against the fastball and that’s been the issue for Giolito. I just have a hard time paying top dollar for him today.

The roulette wheel continued for Nola in the last star because he was ripping through the Dodgers lineup with seven strikeouts through four innings before rain ruined it. The frustration for Nola comes from starts before that one where he faced Washington and couldn’t clear 10 DK points. He does have notable home/road splits and it goes all the way through his metrics, including ERA, xFIP, K rate, WHIP, and HR/9. Our man Jimmy always says to target the Reds offense on getaway days and Nola has a 29.4% K rate and tangible upside.

Ranks – Manaea, Nola, Giolito

The Mid-Range

I’m staying out of the punt range today as there are really no other options under $7,000. We do have three choices if you decide to not go with double ace (which is likely my path because there are offenses in great spots today), starting with the cheapest option in my eyes, Alec Mills. I know the last time we went with a Cubs pitcher, Adbert Alzolay got mauled but this spot is about as good as we could ask for Mills. You can’t expect a lot of strikeouts with just a 17.1% K rate but you can expect ground balls at a 54.2% rate. That would be second in the majors if he qualified and it jumps up to 59.2% against righties. There are only two lefties projected to play in the Marlins lineup and they are third in ground ball rate against righty pitching.

On the opposite side of the game, Elieser Hernandez is back for the Marlins and I’m not in love with the price, but I am in love with the strikeout upside. When he’s pitched in the past three seasons, he’s posted K rates of 24.1%, 32.1%, and 33.3%. I grant you that last year was under 30 IP and this year is under eight IP so the sample is extremely small. In those innings, his slider has sported at least a 39.3% whiff rate and the wOBA has been under .205. The swinging-strike rates have been at least 13.2 and he had an 18:0 K:BB ratio in his rehab starts. Pretty much everything screams K upside except we may not get more than around 80 pitches. I worry about the ceiling but the talent is absolutely there.

I think I’ve played Triston McKenzie once or twice this year and he might have the widest range of outcomes today. McKenzie has been worse against lefties with a .333 wOBA and a 5.15 xFIP. The fly ball rate over 45% is always something that can come back to bite him but his K rate is over 27%. In his past five starts, only one has had an xFIP under 4.82 and he’s just been difficult to predict. The Tigers are a better matchup than the past couple of offenses that he’s faced but they are 16th against the fastball, which is almost 65% of his pitch mix.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15 Stacks

Do you know how we used the Royals righties yesterday against Jon Lester? Well, let’s refresh –

Let’s start off with the duo of Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield, who are ridiculously cheap. They could be popular but I don’t care as Perez has a .453 wOBA and .383 ISO against lefties this season, and smashes the fastball for a .654 ISO. That’s around 32% of the pitches to righties from Lester and Perez is under $5,000. Merrifield has a very high chance for a stolen base and has a .205 ISO against the fastball himself. I would also extend the stack to include Hunter Dozier, who has scuffled against lefties this year but has a .402 wOBA and .322 ISO against the fastball with a hard-hit rate of 63%.

J.A. Happ uses the fastball almost double what Lester does and this three-man Royals stack is well worth going right back to today.

Past that, we have to get some exposure to the Red Sox lineup here. They face lefty Keegan Akin and he throws the fastball almost 58% of the time. Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and J.D. Martinez are four of the top five Sox hitters against the fastball and Bogaerts is 14th in the league. Since we can likely only really afford one of Xander or Martinez, I’m siding with Bogaerts. He has a higher wOBA and ISO against lefties this year and Hernandez and Renfroe fit perfectly with the KC three-man stack.

Brewers against Dillon Peters
White Sox against Nestor Cortes (Luis Robert is wildly cheap)
Rays against Charlie Barnes
A’s against Kolby Allard
Twins lefty hitters against Luis Patino

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14

It’s Saturday and we do have a split slate but the bulk of the action is in the evening. The afternoon slate looks simply dreadful from a pitching perspective with Chris Sale returning from Tommy John at the highest salary on the board, Luis Castillo, Max Fried, and then a whole lot of sketchiness. With that in mind, we’re going to focus on the 10 game slate in the evening in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 and lay our foundation for green screens tonight!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 – Main Targets

Walker Buehler

It’s really not a stretch to say that Buehler is the most talented pitcher on the slate and it would be a surprise if he’s not popular. It should be noted that regression could hit him a little bit since the ERA is 2.13 and the xFIP is 3.67 but the K rate is 26.5%. His walk rate is also just 6.6% and teams haven’t hit him that hard at just a 30.3% rate. Buehler has sported an 11.3% swinging-strike rate, which is more than enough and the Mets lineup could help him a little bit from the pitch mix perspective. The cutter and curve are his secondary pitches after the four-seam against lefties and there should be five of them for the Mets. His curve has the highest whiff rate of any pitch at 34.4% and his K rate against the left side is still 27.8%. The ground ball rate goes higher to lefties and the hard-hit rate comes down to 25% so there’s not a ton to pick at here for Buehler.

Luis Garcia

This spot could be flat-out awesome for Garcia and I hope the last start is more than a blip on the radar and the new style for Garcia. He only threw the fastball 28.2% of the time, relying on his other four pitches the majority of the start. He whiffed eight hitters and only gave up two hits and his other four pitches outside the four-seam all have whiff rates over 42.5% and wOBA’s under .245. If he’s leaning into those pitches more and ditching the four-seam at a 46.3% rate, he could unlock a new ceiling. As it is, this is a very good spot for him via his splits since the Angels should roll out six righties and Garcia has held them to a .249 wOBA, a 0.94 WHIP, and the K rate climbs over 30%. The Angels are in the top 12 in most of our offensive categories but Garcia has upside at this price.

Joe Musgrove

I have my doubts about Musgrove in this spot but I also feel like he’ll be a popular option so we have to talk about him. His last three starts look a lot better but it was the Rockies away from Coors Field, Oakland, and Miami at home. It’s particularly hard to figure out the two starts in August because the strand rate is over 98%. That’s obviously got to come down and the K rate of 23.1% in June and July seems more realistic than the 28.2% K rate that he has on the season. He is also a little worse against lefties with a .288 wOBA and a 1.28 HR/9. What’s curious is his xFIP is better against the left side at 3.24, the K rate is higher, and the ground ball rate goes up over 51%. Arizona is projected to pack in five lefties plus the pitcher spot and sit 16th in ground ball rate, so the path is there for Musgrove. The trust is not.

Aaron Ashby

One of the reasons I’m not in love with the mid-range tonight is because I think we have a big opportunity with Ashby. First off, the DK notes in his game log say that he was used as an opener in the last game. While he did only pitch two innings, there was a 90-minute rain delay that he had to deal with. Unless I completely missed something, there’s no indication that I see that Ashby’s role is the opener. He also threw just 23 pitches, so his arm is not spent despite being on just three days’ rest. He generated a 33% whiff rate on those 23 pitches and remains under $5,000. On top of everything else, the Buccos offense is poor all around and since the start of July, they rank 27th or worse against lefties in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. I’m ready to go right back to the well with Ashby tonight.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 Honorable Mention

James Kaprielian – I’m not sure I trust him against Texas twice in a row, even with the Rangers’ offensive struggles duly noted. I’ve tended to struggle to buy into Kaprielian as a whole through his 78.1 IP and his 4.37 xFIP is over a full run higher than his 3.22 ERA. The 46.1% fly-ball rate is scary but the 25.9% K rate is solid even if he gets dinged a little bit. The home/road splits don’t decide anything for us but with pitchers in Oakland, it is worth noting that Kaprielian has a 5.34 FIP on the road compared to 2.73 at home.

Dylan Cease – This is a super boom or bust spot for the righty as he boasts a K rate over 30% but is slightly worse against righty hitters with a .301 wOBA and a 4.02 xFIP. However, the Yanks strike out at a 24.9% rate and are projected to have four lefties in their lineup tonight, which is a rarity. We know the Yanks can be dangerous, but the 19th OPS and 24th ISO wouldn’t exactly scare us if it wasn’t for the name value.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 Stacks

It’s Jon Lester Day and since the Brewers are in a doubleheader, it’s easy to pivot away from their offense. Lester is giving up a .392 wOBA against the right side of the plate along with a 6.09 FIP, 5.37 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and a 1.97 HR/9. Let’s start off with the duo of Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield, who are ridiculously cheap. They could be popular but I don’t care as Perez has a .453 wOBA and .383 ISO against lefties this season, and smashes the fastball for a .654 ISO. That’s around 32% of the pitches to righties from Lester and Perez is under $5,000. Merrifield has a very high chance for a stolen base and has a .205 ISO against the fastball himself. I would also extend the stack to include Hunter Dozier, who has scuffled against lefties this year but has a .402 wOBA and .322 ISO against the fastball with a hard-hit rate of 63%.

With playing Ashby and Dozier, we have a ton of salary left and I’m turning towards the Houston Astros. Jaime Barria is pitching for the Angels and his 4.21 ERA is out of place with a 5.56 xFIP. The hard-hit rate is over 38% and his K rate is 14.5% to righties while only sitting at 7.7% against lefties. The trio of Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, and Kyle Tucker are the best three hitters on the Astros in wOBA against righties this year, all over a .375 wOBA and a .255 ISO except for Brantley. They also all rate well against the slider which is the main pitch for Barria. Alvarez is especially good with a .463 ISO against that pitch and Barria’s FIP is 6.18 against lefties.

Giants against Kyle Freeland
Rays against Kenta Maeda
A’s against Jordan Lyles
Padres against Tyler Gilbert

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Starting Rotation 8.7

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 8.7

Saturday is here and it brings us a split slate of MLB action spread throughout the day! The afternoon is a small five-game slate and then we get to the main course of 11 games in the evening. We have a whole lot of work to do so let’s get right after it in the Starting Rotation 8.7 and figure out who we like to help lead us to green screens!

Starting Rotation 8.7 – Early Slate

Carlos Rodon – There are some warning signs with Rodon and I wouldn’t blame anyone if they tried a strategic fade. His velocity has been sketchy the past two starts and it is noteworthy he’s already at more IP in any season since 2018. Having said that, the Cubs are seventh in K rate against lefty pitching at 25.1% and Rodon is still sporting a 35.2% K rate on the year and it has held firm above 32% in any month of the season. His four-seam and slider combo both have a whiff rate over 30% and a wOBA under .275 with a total of 145 strikeouts. Even in July when his HR/9 went up to 1.38, the xFIP was still under 2.90. The Cubs are a lineup we need to consider picking on constantly, and I will likely be doing that today. The only facet that would knock me off him could be the weather in Wrigley, and only if the wind is blowing out.

Cole Irvin – This is not a pitcher that typically makes our list since he has a K rate under 18% and all of his pitches have a whiff rate under 23.5%. The four-seam and changeup are his two primary pitches and both do have a wOBA under .265, which is going to help against the Rangers. They remain in the bottom five in all of our offensive categories and just haven’t been anything but a bad offense through most of the season. They are also 28th against the change and 26th against the fastball, which is a big help for Irvin. The swinging-strike rate is not super impressive at 9.5% and he’s holding righties to a .283 wOBA. At $7,500, he makes plenty of sense and we don’t need a boatload of strikeouts.

Starting Rotation 8.7 Honorable Mention

Robbie Ray – I’m likely to stick with that pairing but Ray is on the slate and we have to discuss him. It’s a double-header so be careful with offenses but we could potentially see Ray go for a complete game. Boston is inside the top 12 against the fastball, which is certainly a concern for Ray since he throws that pitch right about 60% of the time. He’s had three starts against the Red Sox and two have been excellent while one was tough. I also have some worries after the teams got into it a little bit last night and there could be some retaliation. Still, Ray is over a 30% K rate and his walk rate is still under 7%. His 15% swinging-strike rate is second in the league and the only fear is the Red Sox are top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS against lefties.

I’m going to bet Andrew Heaney carries some popularity and you guys know exactly how I feel about Heaney when he’s chalk. Seattle does carry the third-highest K rate against lefties at 26.7% but is 15th in ISO and eighth in fly-ball rate.

Starting Rotation 8.7 Early Stacks

I’m really only going to focus on one offense for the short slate and it’s the left-handed hitters from the Chicago White Sox. The Cubbies have Adbert Alzolay pitching and he’s got some of the worst numbers against lefties in all of baseball. They are up to a .414 wOBA, 5.08 xFIP, 8.58 FIP, a 4.01 HR/9, and a 38.4% hard-hit rate. Yoan Moncada, Gavin Sheets, Cesar Hernandez, and Brian Goodwin are ALL in play if they make the lineup. Hernandez looks the best via the pitch data with a .261 ISO against the slider, which is the most-thrown pitch to lefties for Azolay. That’s still under 33% of the time, so we can focus on the other three hitters sitting over a .345 wOBA and a .150 ISO on the season. The other plus is they are very affordable so you can spend on pitching however you like.

A’s against Drew Anderson
Mets against Ranger Suarez
Mariners righties against Heaney

Starting Rotation 8.7 – Main

So we’re going to attack the larger slate a bit differently. Four pitchers sit above $9,500 and I do have some type of interest in all of them. We’ll do quick hitters on each and then a ranking at the end, then move onto the other pitchers who make the list. This is a slate where I think you can strongly consider at least eight options with one punt that I really like.

High-End Options

Picking the right guy between Julio Urias, Luis Garcia, Yu Darvish, and Brandon Woodruff could be the key to this pitching slate. I have to imagine they carry four of the top six spots in projected popularity, roughly.

Let’s start with who I’m not a huge fan of and that’s Woodruff. He’s seen his K rate go down every month since May and while 26.8% is still solid, it’s not quite as good as what he’s shown when pitchers were using sticky stuff. The Giants should roll out five lefties which means Woodruff will rely on the changeup more than normal. It does have a 40% whiff rate and only a .195 wOBA but it also has just 14 strikeouts. Even with the Giants striking out a lot at 25.7%, they did get Brandon Belt back which lengthens the lineup. Woodruff has more starts under 15 DK points than he has above 24 over his past 10.

Garcia hasn’t completed five innings in either of his past two starts but his price is still way up there. I don’t quite understand Garcia, to be frank. The K rate is awesome at 29.3% and every pitch other than his four-seam has a whiff rate over 42%. That’s all four other pitches this man throws. His pure stuff is flat-out nasty. The issue is he’s using that four-seam 47.3% of the time and it’s not fooling anyone. It does have 39 strikeouts but it also has nine of 13 home runs, a .393 wOBA, and a whiff rate of 19.2%. Minnesota is ranked first against the fastball this season, a large red flag. Also, they could throw out four lefties and that’s been an issue for Garcia as well. Lefties have a .337 wOBA and a 1.40 HR/9.

This is a great spot for Darvish by what the splits tell us. He should face five lefties plus the pitcher spot (although that didn’t work last time out as German Marquez took him yard) and Darvish has held lefties to a .263 wOBA, 1.17 HR/9, and a 28% K rate. The large fear with him is he had a Charles Barkley-style TURRIBLE July, racking up a 7.36 ERA, .385 wOBA, 3.16 HR/9, 24.1% K rate, and a 6.43 FIP. Arizona is sitting at a K rate over 24% so this is a soft landing spot for Darvish but those numbers are frightening. It’s a leap of faith even though Darvish is one of the game’s best pitchers when he’s on his A-game.

Urias has honestly been a rock in the Dodgers rotation. He had a bit of a scuffle in June but righted the ship in July with a 2.30 ERA, .264 wOBA, and a 20% K rate. He’s got the right side of the plate at a 25% K rate and a .274 wOBA, both fairly strong marks. The xFIP to either side isn’t above 3.56 and his curve/changeup mix is the best weapon in his holster. Urias throws those two pitches roughly 50% of the time with the four-seam making up the other half. The curve/change has 84 total strikeouts and neither pitch has allowed a wOBA over .193. The Angels rank 17th and 19th against those two pitches. Even though the Angels offense is top 10 across the board in our offensive categories, I think Urias is up for the challenge.

Rank – Urias, Darvish, Woodruff, Garcia

Not Quite High-End Options Due To Me Deciding The Cutoff Is $9,500

Charlie Morton seems to have a love/hate relationship with me (I liked you when you were in Pittsburgh, you’re a good dude Mr. Morton) but it’s hard to cast him aside here. I suppose if Juan Soto is back the spot gets worse but Washington’s lineup is never going to look good on paper the rest of the way. Morton is sporting a ground ball rate over 47% and his K rate is just under 28%, an excellent mark for him. His swinging-strike rate of 12.2% is just about as good as it has ever been, so that checks out for him. The four-seam/curve mix is the backbone of his arsenal and they have a combined 125 strikeouts. The curve is still among the league’s best (he’s second in FanGraphs rating while Urias is first) and it’s only allowed a .184 wOBA with a 42.8% whiff rate. I’m going to be fascinated to see how these first five options shake out tonight in popularity. We may be able to use that to our advantage.

If you want to ride the lightning, Shane McClanahan is that dude. It’s not the greatest spot ever as the Orioles are superior against lefties but we saw this kid’s upside in his last start. He went six innings, struck out seven Red Sox hitters, and only allowed a solo home run. I was able to watch and he was overpowering guys like J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. Through his 77 IP, the young lefty has a 28% K rate to go with an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 15.8% swinging-strike rate. Max Scherzer leads the majors at 16%. His four-seam hasn’t been a huge plus yet with a .403 wOBA but his slider/curve/change mix all have a whiff rate over 41%, a wOBA under .275, and have 71 of 91 strikeouts. Baltimore should send out eight righties and they only have a 28.9% hard-hit rate. Just remember, he’s a rookie on Tampa. The range of outcomes is wide but he could be left behind on this slate.

The Punt To Afford Some Hitters

To tweak a famous Michael Buffer phrase, Let’s Get Ready To Gomberrrrrrr!!

Austin Gomber barely survived the first inning last game, throwing 40 pitches and giving up four runs with a -3.4 DK point score. That start was against the Padres, so it’s easy to chalk that up as understandable. Tonight’s start comes against the Marlins, a much different offense. Miami is 28th or lower in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, slugging, and they strike out at a 27.9% clip against lefties. On top of that, they are eighth in ground ball rate. Even if you only look at Coors stats, Gomber has a 49.4% ground ball rate, 4.13 xFIP, 20.6% K rate, 0.85 WHIP, .240 wOBA, and a 1.98 ERA. He’s far too cheap and I think popular, although he should be. My general plan is to pair one of Gomber or McClanahan with Morton, Urias, or Darvish.

Starting Rotation 8.7 Honorable Mention

Jose Berrios/Tanner Houck – This could turn into a bit of a pitcher’s duel in the doubleheader nightcap. Houck likely has the hardest path to glory but his first 39 innings in the majors have been excellent all around. The ERA is 1.62, the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.38/2.99, and the K rate is 33.6%. It’s risky using him against Toronto but let’s see what lineups look like for both teams. Houck has generated a 13% swinging-strike rate thus far but he has been worse against righties at a .304 wOBA. hat’s an issue against righty-heavy Toronto.

Berrios sparkled in his first start for the Jays, striking out seven across six scoreless innings. I definitively prefer Morton in the much easier matchup but Berrios has a K rate of 25.8% and his curve has a .245 wOBA and a 36.1% whiff rate. That is his primary pitch but Boston is second against it.

Starting Rotation 8.7 Stacks

Oh boy, do I hope the Reds still have runs left in their bats. I mentioned to Jimmy in Discord I feel like the Buccos get freight trained every trip into Cincy and they have scored 17 runs through the first two games. Their starters have been destroyed and now they send Mitch Keller into the lion’s den. That’s….not good for Pittsburgh as Keller has a wOBA over .375 to each side of the plate. He uses the fastball around 50% to each side as well and the Reds feast on that pitch. Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, and Tucker Barnhart are all over a .235 ISO and .388 wOBA against righty fastballs.

Since some of these hitters are very expensive, I plan to pay up for one spot and I lean Votto. He has the best marks against the fastball and has a .443 wOBA with a .354 ISO against righties, the best on the team. India is at a .365 wOBA and I want the leadoff hitter, but I may prioritize a different second baseman tonight. After that, Castellanos is still just way too cheap even though he’s looked not quite there in his first two games back from the IL. Mitch Keller is about to fix that and he’s at a .412 wOBA on the year. If you’re wearing a Reds uniform, I’m interested and it’s mostly going to be the puzzle of fitting with my other stack.

We can still get a nice chunk of Coors exposure and the Rockies face off against Jesus Luzardo. I’m going to apologize to Ghost right now because he loves Luzardo (I love the talent too) but this is not a great spot. I’m passing on India because Brendan Rodgers looks spectacular for a cheaper salary. Luzardo’s fastball is what gets him into trouble with a .352 ISO with a 57% hard-hit rate and his sinker carries a .237 mark. Rodgers crushes fastballs with a .462 ISO and has a .448 wOBA against lefties. Trevor Story hammers the sinker with a .370 ISO and a 58% hard-hit rate to go with a .367 wOBA on the year against lefties. Lastly, Garrett Hampson is sitting at a .243 ISO against lefties and is a great cheap way to get into Coors tonight.

Dodgers against Jamie Barria
Tigers/Cleveland game stack
Rays against Spenser Watkins
Braves against Josiah Gray
Astros against Michael Pineda

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Starting Rotation 7.28

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 7.28

Wednesday brings us another 11 game slate and this one includes a doubleheader in Boston, so be aware of that. There are also two ace-level pitchers at the top end and one that has been borderline impossible to get right. We’re going to talk about that and plenty more in the Starting Rotation 7.28 to lay the foundation for green screens!

Starting Rotation 7.28 – Main Targets

Walker Buehler

This will be the second time Buehler has faced the Giants in consecutive starts and the second start in the first pairing wasn’t all that great. Still, it’s hard to ignore him on this slate. He’s had seven straight starts with at least six strikeouts and only two have been below 22 DK in the last 10. The 26.4% K rate is backed up with an 11.3% swinging-strike rate and the projected lineup for the Giants should bring his curveball into play.

They likely roll out four lefties and Buehler has used the curveball 205 out of 277 times to lefties. It has only allowed a .208 wOBA and has the best whiff rate of any pitch at 32.8%. The Giants do rate well against the curve but they would be around 18th if we take out Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf. Belt is on the IL and Ruf is not projected, so this spot gets better for Buehler. With the Giants hovering just under a 26% K rate, the salary could be worth it tonight.

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler has been excellent this season and no pitch has a wOBA over .295. That would be the four-seam but it also has 67 strikeouts so we can live with a slightly higher wOBA. Washington is sixth against the fastball but just like San Fran, they will be without two of their best three fastball hitters tonight. Taking Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner out leave the Bats about 19th against the fastball and that’s a big boost for Wheeler. Really, past Juan Soto, this Nationals lineup does not look good at all. Wheeler is over a 30% K rate and his 2.73 ERA lines up well with the 2.29/2.73 FIP/xFIP combo. Wheeler has bumped his whiff rate on the four-seam up by about 7% and the swinging-strike rate is a career-high 12.7%. Pending what Washington’s lineup looks like, I slightly prefer Wheeler if only paying up for one spot.

Andrew Heaney

I don’t have much interest in the mid-range tonight so I’ll be skipping those pitchers. It seems like Heaney is chalk every fifth day but I have to say, this time it actually does make sense. Look, Heaney is a pain to play because he’s wildly up and down but he gets the coveted Rockie Road spot. I have to expect the field is going to flock to Heaney in a big way. We talked yesterday about how putrid the Rockies are against lefties on the road and Heaney does possess upside. It can just be hard to find. His ERA of 5.32 is out of whack with the 3.83 xFIP and has a K rate of 27.9%.

The WHIP is the highest since 2017 and the walk rate is the exact same way but in this spot, some of the concerns fade away. I do wish he wasn’t using the four-seam almost 60% of the time. Sure, it has 52 strikeouts but it also has allowed 11 home runs and a .377 wOBA. He’s slated to face six righties and they have a 31% K rate, 3.49 xFIP, and a 35.3% hard-hit rate. I want to see exactly how chalky he is before making the call here.

Jordan Holloway

I’m not sure we should penalize him for a poor start against the Padres. This spot is much different and attacking the Orioles has proven to be solid most of the time. Baltimore is 17th against the slider this season and that’s the primary pitch for Holloway at almost 42%. It’s also generated a .191 wOBA and a 31.6% whiff rate. It’s been a key pitch for him because his poorer outings have typically had a negative rating for FanGraphs. The four starts before the Padres start saw Holloway rack up K rates over 27.8% and three of them were over 31%. Baltimore also ranks 24th in walk rate and whiffs 25% of the time while ranking 27th against the fastball. That’s been an issue for Holloway as his sinker has allowed a .418 wOBA. If he can throw first-pitch strikes and survive on his fastball, this start could go extremely well.

Starting Rotation 7.28 Honorable Mention

Lucas Giolito – I will find the extra money for Wheeler or Buehler in almost any lineup I play, but we have to talk about Giolito. The Royals are 19th against the changeup and 25th against the fastball, which should help Giolito. It also has to be noted that the K rate from June on has been under 28% and he hasn’t looked terribly strong after the Break by some metrics. It’s only 15 IP in fairness, but the K rate is 19.3% and the xFIP is 5.66. It’s worth the extra money for the upper-tier tonight in my eyes.

Tylor Megill – I can’t say I love the salary and his pitch mix looks like it could bite him tonight. Of his three main pitches, the four-seam and changeup both have a wOBA over .300 but at least the change has a 37.9% whiff rate. Megill has sported a 27% K rate through his first 30 IP in the majors but the price is up there.

Starting Rotation 7.28 Primary Stack

Give me the Angels hitters tonight as the Rockies send Chi Chi Gonzalez to the mound tonight and he’s been a disaster this year. He’s shown hardly any strikeout ability and the Angels are all in play. His fastball is giving up a 43 hard-hit rate and the slider is worse at 50% while both pitches are over a .185 ISO. It’s very easy to say that Shohei Ohtani is in play despite his slump and so is Jared Walsh, if he is available. Where we can get creative is the rest of the stack. Most may be hesitant to pay for Max Stassi at $4,600 but he has a .425 wOBA and .242 ISO this year against righty pitching. Gonzalez is slightly worse against righty hitters which leads me to talk about Jack Mayfield. He can be the wraparound since he’s projected to hit ninth and sports a .333 ISO in just 27 PA. We can also utilize Brandon Marsh even though he’s not hit righties that well yet with a .253 wOBA. Gonzalez is so bad that we can mix and match to comfortably afford Ohtani, Walsh, Stassi, and Justin Upton.

Starting Rotation 7.28 Secondary Stacks

Phillies against Patrick Corbin
Reds against Zach Davies (lefties especially)
White Sox against Kris Bubic
Brewers against Max Kranick

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Starting Rotation 7.25

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 7.25

Sunday brings us 11 games and it seems like a bit of an odd slate at first glance. We have some ace-level options at the top but the pricing directly behind it seems very out of place. I can safely say I’m not remotely interested in paying $9,000 for Trevor Williams and his ERA over 5.50. We still need to find some options so let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 7.25 to lay our foundation for green screens!

Starting Rotation 7.25 – Main Targets

Yu Darvish

I totally understand skittishness about paying up for pitching anymore. The aces have felt like a letdown more often than not lately and Darvish hasn’t been at his best in his past three starts. However, one was when he got injured and one was his return from the IL, which for me is never a comfortable spot. I am happy to see he threw 95 pitches and most of his spin rate was back against Atlanta. Seeing the Marlins offense in Miami should be a bounce-back spot. The Fish are seventh in K rate to righties at 25.3% and bottom eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.

The splits are a bit odd for Darvish because the right side has a higher wOBA (only .291 but still) but the K rate is higher at 31.4% and the xFIP is 3.57 as opposed to 4.14 for the left side of the plate. Darvish is slated to face just two lefties against the Marlins. If you pay up, Darvish is my favorite choice.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal comes across as a hair expensive but the entire upper tier is in my view and I’m likely to stay away. Skubal continued his string of very strong starts last time out and he managed to put up 21 DK on just four strikeouts. Even if you take away the win, 17 DK is solid. This isn’t the best spot he’ll ever have for strikeouts since KC is only at 21.9% but the rest of the matchup is super appealing. The Royals rank in the bottom seven of all our offensive categories except for slugging, which they rank 18th.

The other key should be the four-seam for Skubal. On the season, that’s the pitch that he struggles with since it has a wOBA over .400. His slider and change both feature wOBA’s under .230 and whiff rates of 36.9% and 50%. The Royals are only 25th against the fastball this season, leaving Skubal with plenty of opportunities in this start.

Paolo Espino

He might be the weirdest pitcher I’ve written up all season long, but alas. Here we are. This is mostly opponent-driven. The Orioles rank 28th in average, 30th in OBP, 27th in slugging, 30th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 30th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+ against righty pitching this season. They also hover right around a 25% K rate, so this is flat out not a good offense against righties. Espino is not anything special with a 3.00 ERA/4.84 xFIP combo, nor does his 16.5% K rate impress. The K rate does kick up to 19.8% against righty hitters and he has a projected eight in the Baltimore lineup today. None of his main three pitches has a wOBA over .292 on the year and I think could honestly do worse today.

I’m keeping the options very tight today because I don’t think this slate is that great. Zack Greinke gets a very nice spot, but do we want to pay five digits for Grienke and a K rate below 18%. John Means is typically one of my favorites but the Nationals are one of the better offenses against lefties in baseball and Means is very pricey for a player that scored 1.1 DK last time. After that, the talent pool drops steeply.

Starting Rotation 7.25 Honorable Mention

Aaron Nola – I’m not sure who needs to hear this, but in the 41.1 IP since the start of June, Nola has an ERA over 6.00. The wOBA has been at least .362 and the HR/9 spiked over 2.00. Now, the xFIP in June was 2.87 which is a far cry from the ERA but Nola has been extremely volatile. In the last 10 starts, he has two over 30 DK and eight under 22 DK. If you get him right it will be awesome but it’s an expensive gamble with his performance right now.

Caleb Smith – This is a player I’d rather not use much, but he was chalky last time and scored over 24 DK. The matchup is different against the Cubs but Smith does possess a 25.7% K rate so far this season. Chicago is over 24% as a team in K rate to lefties, ranking seventh. What really makes me nervous is the fly-ball rate of 49.8% in Wrigley Field.

Starting Rotation 7.25 Primary Stack

Say hello to the Tigers. Daniel Lynch is back in the majors and unfortunately for him, this season hasn’t gone well for him in the majors or at AAA. His ERA down on the farm is pushing 6.00 and through just eight innings, it’s 15.75 in the majors. Until he shows us…well, anything, he needs to be targeted. This stack has a clear top three in my eyes against the big lefty and it’s Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, and Robbie Grossman. Those three hitters are the top three against the fastball and Lynch’s four-seam has gotten scorched for a .558 wOBA. Those three hitters are all over a .375 wOBA (Haase and Schoop are over .400) and all three are at a .235 ISO or higher. You can also consider Jake Rogers for the Win Daily Double Catcher Gambit and Jeimer Candelario and Zack Short. Everyone has a wOBA over .340 and Lynch looks not up to snuff in the majors.

Starting Rotation 7.25 Secondary Stacks

Astros against Dane Dunning
Blue Jays against Rich Hill
Rays against Triston McKenzie
Cardinals against Sonny Gray (this might seem odd but Gray has a .351 wOBA against righty hitters and a 1.41 HR/9. I would only use them if playing multiple lineups and limit myself to a mini-stack of 2-3 hitters)
Twins against Jaime Barria

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Starting Rotation 7.22

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 7.22

I’m not going to lie to you, we are in a bit of a slog as far as pitching options go. It feels like forever since we’ve had a dynamite slate, let alone one that was even really good. We do have a couple of bigger name options at the top that are interesting but let’s talk about that and more in the Starting Rotation 7.22!

Starting Rotation 7.22 – Main Targets

Walker Buehler

This is a tough spot to get a read on for Buehler. He’s faced the Giants three times already and has scores of 30, 13, and 23 DK points which sounds about right. There are some good and bad that can come across. The good is the K rate for Buehler has come up to 26% while the Giants are over 25% as a team. He also has an 11.5% swinging-strike rate even with throwing a four-seam almost 48% of the time. Only his curveball has a whiff rate over 29.1% on the season which is moderately impressive since the K rate is so high.

The flip side here is the ERA is 2.37 and the xFIP is 3.72, which is a significant difference. The Giants are also third against the fastball, fourth in OPS, and first in ISO against righty pitching. I would prefer Buehler in GPP only, but let’s see what the projected ownership is. I can’t pretend there’s not a ceiling here but there’s plenty of chances at a floor as well.

Sean Manaea

At least as of Wednesday night, I prefer Manaea to Buehler. He gets to travel to Seattle and take on a Mariners team that is coming out of Coors Field and that (generally) means the offense struggles in that first game. Seattle already whiffs against lefties at a 26.9% rate, the third-highest in baseball against lefty pitching. Add in that they also rank 24th or lower in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, and it’s not too hard to see why we like Manaea.

He’s kind of an interesting pitcher by pitch type because the sinker is his main weapon with 70 of 115 strikeouts so far. However, it does have the highest wOBA of .320 and he’s given up 11 of 13 home runs on the pitch. However, Manaea should be helped by the fact that Seattle is 27th against the fastball. On top of that, Seattle normally has four lefties in the lineup. Manaea has a 33.6% K rate to that side of the plate and a 2.72 xFIP. I think he could be our best shot for the highest score on the slate for pitchers.

Charlie Morton

Another price point that I’m not overly in love with, Morton takes on a Phillies team that should be righty-heavy. It should be a 5-3 split if they run their normal lineup and Morton has a .259 wOBA to the right side as opposed to a .303 wOBA to the left side. Philly is hovering around a 24% K rate and they haven’t handled the curve well. The curve is the lead strike-out pitch with 66 and only has a .192 wOBA with a 43.2% whiff rate. His fly-ball rate is under 29% to each side of the plate and Morton has a ground ball rate of 47.7%. It’s interesting to note that Philly is sixth in GB rate themselves at 45.7% and Morton certainly has some upside in this spot.

Adbert Alzolay

If there was ever a spot for Alzolay to pay off, this sure seems like it could be it. His main pitch is the slider and it’s far and away his best pitch. He’s throwing it 43.2% of the time and it has a .229 wOBA, 55 strikeouts, and a 36.1% whiff rate. Every other pitch sits below a 28% whiff rate and has a wOBA over .325 so there is obviously a risk. What we really like is the Cardinals lineup. They are 15th against the slider and easily in the negative rating but they should have six righties and the pitcher spot. Alzolay has some drastic splits and the right side of the plate sits at a .230 wOBA, 29.4% K rate, and a 2.94 xFIP. The left side is at a .393 wOBA, 19.9% K rate, and a 4.87 xFIP. Provided the lineup is usual for the Cardinals, count me in as interested.

Starting Rotation 7.22 Honorable Mention

Kenta Maeda – He makes me very nervous at this salary because he’s been uneven this year even when he’s been the past three starts. His splitter and slider are the key weapons and he does carry a K rate of 25% and the Angels have a K rate of 24%. I’d just find the money for Manaea in this slot.

Blake Snell – If he’s chalk, I’ll be out on that but I can’t ignore the fact that this spot should be a good one for Snell. Miami now leads the league in K rate against lefty pitching at 28.2% and is in the bottom four in every offensive category we talk about. Snell’s 5.21 ERA isn’t in line with a 4.06 xFIP but I’ll let the field decide this one.

Starting Rotation 7.22 Primary Stack

After the last start, Andrew Heaney shouldn’t be chalk but I’m going full on the other direction. The fly-ball rate is 42.3% and his fastball is getting smashed with a .258 ISO, .377 wOBA, and a 301.6 average distance. Heaney is also throwing it 53.8% of the time to righties and the trio of Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz have ISO’s over .430 and wOBA’s over .455. Cruz may not be in the lineup as he’s being rumored to be dealt to the Blue Jays so we’ll keep an eye out. Even if he’s out, Miguel Sano is over a .390 ISO and you have hitters like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco can jump into the fray here.

Starting Rotation 7.22 Secondary Stacks

Rays against Cal Quantrill
Red Sox against Jordan Montgomery
Yankees against Tanner Houck
Cubs against Kwang Hyun Kim

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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