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MLB DFS: Masterful Monday. Aces and Bases for 8.3

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 3rd edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Frankie Montas ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)

Montas scared me a bit last week, only producing 3Ks and 3 whiffs on the slider. The redeeming factor was his sinker. The sinker was coming in a tick slower at 95mph, but he was able stay on the edges and make it through 5 innings on 77 pitches. Montas draws the Mariners today and hopefully we see the strikeout numbers jump up here.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Paddack

Top Ace(s): Walker Buehler ($10,300 DK / $10,000 FD) Jacob DeGrom ($11,600 DK / $10,700 FD) Gerrit Cole ($11,000 / $11,000)

Walker got through just 56 pitches with 3Ks last time out against the Astros. It was not the prettiest start either. The Padres present an easier challenge and Buehler’s fastball still looked as good as we believe it is. Buehler will be a good play with all the top names on the board today.

DeGrom touched 101mph his last time out! He is dope and does dope things. The Braves lineup is not the easiest but if anyone is match up proof its DeGrom.

Speaking of being dope. Gerrit Cole gets the Phillies today. Cole racked up 7Ks facing Baltimore last week, letting up 3 earned over his 6.2 innings pitched. Cole is yet another option on pick your ace day.

Honorable Mention: Mike Soroka

Punt Play: Carlos Rodon ($7,000 DK / $6,600 FD)

This one is a bit shaky. Rodon’s sliders was awesome last year, sadly it has not been consistently good so far this year. Rodon is always a bit of a toss up but this Brewers line up simply is not that scary, especially with the way Yelich has started his year.

Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy

Top Fade: Brett Anderson ($7,300 DK / $6,700 FD)

The veteran lefty is going to make his season debut against a white hot White Sox team that is finding their stride at the plate. The lineup is loaded with right handed power and should continue rolling here in Milwaukee

Honorable Mention: Nobody

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Monday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Minnesota Twins – The Twins square up with Derek Holland tomorrow. Holland has always struggled getting righties out and the twins heart of the order is stacked with right handed power. Get the big bats in here.
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are white hot right now, scoring 20 runs in their last two contests. Just like the twins they get a good lefty match up, with plenty of right handed middle of the order power.

Value Stacks

Oakland Athletics– The Athletics get the Mariners to start the week, a rotation and bullpen we will be picking often this year. I did not love Sheffields approach in his first outing, saw way too many sinkers and not enough 4-seamers. Look at the back end of the lineup here for some good plays.
San Francisco Giants– This seems like an obvious one to me. The Giants might have a high draft percentage today but its always good to have a piece of the Coors action.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Happy Saturday! Aces and Bases for 8.1

Matt Vecchio 5 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 1st edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Tyler Chatwood ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD)

Tyler Chatwood, I can’t believe i’m saying this, but he looked good! There was some command there (only 2BBs) and man was the stuff good. The biggest change we saw with Chatwood was the cutter usage increase, he tossed it about 30% of the time last time out and saw great results striking out 8 over 6 innings, even had a extra tick of velo on it!

Chatwood draws a good match up today in the Pirates, hopefully he picks up where he left off, and for $8,000 i’m willing to take the chance.

Honorable Mentions: Luke Weaver

Top Ace(s): Tyler Glasnow ($9,300 DK / $9,800 FD) Carlos Carrasco ($9,200 / $9,400)

Carrasco was back to his usual self striking out 10 over 6 innings while only giving up one free pass in his season debut. Going to continue to trust Carlos and pretty much everyone else on this Indians staff until they give us a reason not to.

Glasnow looked like his amazing first half self against Atlanta to open to season, striking out 9 over only 4 innings! The Braves did manage get the pitch count up though so it was a bit of a early departure. Glasnow is going to have a high draft percentage today against Baltimore but he has reasonable price.

Honorable Mention: Nobody

Punt Play: Griffin Canning ($8,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

Pretty crazy price difference here. I’m sticking with Canning, even with this tough match up against the Astros, I believe in the stuff and the approach. Canning struck out 7 in just 4.2IP last time out but things got a bit hairy a couple times, and he let 3 runs come across. Canning should have a low draft percentage today, and i like his price much more on FD, but still worth a play on DK if you wanna load the bats up today.

Honorable Mention: Mitch Keller

Top Fade: Zach Grienke ($10,800 DK / $9,000 FD)

This price tag is crazy. Grienke’s fastball was coming in 87mph in his first start against the Mariners. That just does not play. We have seen this from Grienke before as his velo is usually down during sprig training and the first month of the season, so there is a chance he ramps it back it up to the usual 90mph or so this time out, but the Angels have been hitting lately. Im going to stick to the plays above, even without Trout in the lineup.

Honorable Mention: Julio Urias

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Chicago White Sox – The Sox are coming together, adding another piece of the puzzle yesterday with Nick Madrigal joining the big league club. The Sox are facing the back end of the Royals rotation and should have no problem throwing some runs on the board.

New York Yankees – The Red Sox are rolling out Zack Godley to start the game and will be going to the bullpen early on the account of Godley not being stretched out yet. The usually high priced Yanks are a bit easier to stomach today with the premiums being placed on the Colorado game.

Value Stacks

Kansas City Royals – The Royals have been great stacks to start the season, incredibly cheap for the production they are providing and just continue to hit. They draw the veteran Gio Gonzelaz today and will look to beat up on him early.
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners have been playing some high scoring contests lately. Kyle Lewis is on insane heater right now and these bats will cost nothing and should have a low draft percentage.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I’m fading Zack Greinke and you can grab the under on 6.5 Ks. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for July 31

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 7.31

My name is Adam Strangis and I’m filling in for Timmy on this Friday evening. Last night was a hair frustrating for some in the Discord if you faded the Yankee game due to weather. It was one of those nights where the process was spot on, so that’s a positive. Aces and Bases for July 31 will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000 DK/$10,100 FD)

I’m happy I got to write Aces and Bases for Friday July 31 because this was an easy pick. So if you’re playing FD, Castillo is not a value at all and I would sub in Mike Minor as the Value. However, we simply can’t ignore Castillo on DK at this price. It’s an egregious price tag that is going to leave the Reds ace as absolute chalk. He destroyed this same Tigers offense last time out for 29.3 DK points and they have struck out the most against RHP since the start of 2018. You lock him in and get different elsewhere.

Honorable Mention – Mike Minor

Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish ($10,500 DK/ $9,100 FD)

Darvish is coming off a very mediocre start against Milwaukee but this is certainly a perfect get right spot. He draws the Pittsburgh Pirates, who sport roughly 4-5 minor league hitters per game. In the early going, Pittsburgh has seen their K rate skyrocket to 27.9% against RHP. This is a stark contrast to their 18.8% clip in 2019.

To make matters easier for Darvish, the Pirates are bottom two in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in the first week. Other than that, the offense is really clicking (says the bitter Bucco fan). I expect Darvish to gt back to his second half of 2019 form when he whiffed 37.8% of hitters faced and gave up a .254 wOBA.

Honorable Mention – Mike Clevinger

Punt Play: Dallas Keuchel ($7,300 DK/ $7,000 FD)

In full transparency, I will not be dipping below Castillo on DK or Mike Minor on FD. The lower rung of pitching tonight is rife with grenades that I’ll be looking to avoid. The only one that maybe you can make a case for is Keuchel. He’s typically not someone we chase with a K rate under 22% since 2015 and the K is king in DFS.

What he does well is generate ground balls, with a GB % of at least 60% in two of the past three seasons. So far, the Royals have whiffed 33.3% vs LHP (42 plate appearances is a frightfully low sample) and have a .292 wOBA. They did have the 11th highest GB rate in 2019, so you might be able to catch Keuchel in a good run prevention spot even with a limited ceiling.

Honorable Mention – None

Top Fade – Blake Snell ($10,800 DK/ $9,500 FD)

Snell is the most expensive option on DK and is going to be capped to just 3-4 innings on Friday. His fastball velocity was down in his first start and he was inefficient in said start, throwing 46 pitches in two innings. Baltimore is quietly not that bad against LHP early on, with a top 10 wOBA of .325. That’s not likely to be accurate but there’s no reason to go after Snell when he’s capped.

Honorable Mention – Zac Gallen

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Chicago White Sox – They face off against a 22 year old LHP named Kris Bubic who has never pitched above A ball. He has shown some K ability at 28% last year in 101 innings, but he also allowed a 40% fly ball rate. Through 33 plate appearances, Chicago has mauled LHP with a .481 wOBA, .308 ISO, 1.161 OPS and a .385 average.
New York Yankees – The Yanks hammered last night as chalk and they get another tasty matchup here against Ryan Weber. The righty got scorched for six runs in 3.2 IP against the Orioles. Boston’s bullpen has pitched the fourth-most innings so far and has given up the ninth-highest wOBA and 12th highest HR/9.

Value Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays – The last time we saw Alex Cobb log a large sample size in 2018, he got tuned up for a 4.90 ERA and only struck out 15.4% of the hitters he faced. The Rays are still missing Austin Meadows, but boast plenty of cost effective options to attack a mediocre pitcher like Cobb.
Cincinnati Reds – If there was one thing we learned about Spencer Turnbull, it’s he struggles against LHH. They got him for a .347 wOBA and near a .300 average in 2019. The Reds have six LHH in the lineup tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! I think Mike Minor’s prop of just 5.5 K’s is something that we should be chasing for sure. Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 7.30

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The July 30th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Dylan Bundy ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD)

Bundy had a great first showing this season striking out 7 while giving up just 1 run over 6.2IP. This was Bundy’s Angels debut and he immediately looks more comfortable using his arsenal. Everything seemed to be working, including his slider that FINALLY had increased usage (33%!).

Bundy gets a great chance to follow up his good start with a go at the Mariners today, where strikeouts will be plentiful.

Honorable Mentions: Ross Stripling

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($9,800 DK / $10,700 FD)

Absolute domination on opening day. 14Ks an no earned runs. Bieber had it all going with 21 whiffs on the day and showcasing top tier fastball command. Great to see Bieber picked up where he left off last year and is match up proof until proven otherwise.

Honorable Mention: Dinelson Lamet

Punt Play: Robbie Ray ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Ray had his normal nasty stuff in his first outing, but he did not exhibit this new found control we were hearing about. The new shortened arm circle did seem to be real, but it did not bring the command I was hoping it would (so far). Ray is going to have a tough opponent in the Dodgers today, if the stuff is there he could hang though, and could provide some good value with a low draft %

Honorable Mention: Brady Singer

Top Fade: Jose Berrios ($10,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

Berrios has accrued some good name value while being a consistent arm with a good looking breaking ball. I don’t want to call him over rated, but I think his price is too high here. In Berrios’s opening day start against the White Sox he gave up 4 runs, while only strike out 1 and getting 1 measly swinging strike. Berrios needs to show us something before I believe in the $10k price tag.

Honorable Mention: J.A. Happ

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

New York – I like both the Mets and the Yanks today. John Means is going for Baltimore and the Yankees have a lineup designed to kill left handed pitching. The Mets get Martin Perez, who couldn’t handle the aforementioned Orioles in his last start.

Los Angeles Angels – The Mariners have allowed at least 6 runs in each of the first 6 games of the season. The Angels put up a 7 spot last night and I don’t see a reason they cant repeat that tonight.

Value Stacks

Kansas City Royals – The Royals have been great stacks to start the season, incredibly cheap for the production they are providing and get another great opportunity against a weak Tigers staff today.
San Diego Padres – Another cheap option that has been hitting so far this year. Obviously it is easy to pick on the Giants, but I will continue to do so.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Shane Bieber in this spot and you can grab the over on his 5.5 strikeout prop!Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Ace Day! Aces and Bases for 7.29

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The July 29th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddock ($8,400 DK / $9,700 FD)

Cowboy Chris Paddock gets a nice match up in San Francisco for a nice price here on DK, I do not like his price as much on Fan Duel though, as they have him the 3rd SP off the board. I can see Paddocks draft percentage getting higher as he looks like a great kicker to the high end guys.

Nevertheless, Paddock will be a good play throwing in a park where its easy to keep in the yard… especially when playing the giants.

Honorable Mentions: Andrew Heaney & Brandon Woodruff

Top Ace(s): Gerrit Cole $11,400 DK / $11,700 FD) & Jacob DeGrom ($12,000 / $11,200 FD)

I mean, obviously. Nose bleed prices for top end performance. Its easy to imagine that Cole will have double digit strikeouts against Baltimore.

The Red Sox however might be able to put up a tad bit of resistance, and if there ever was a time when DeGrom got beat, it was those three starts in April of last season, where he didn’t last more than 5 innings and had 3 or more Earned Runs in each start. Of course its not actually April, and I still believe the reigning Cy Young winner will roll. I may even set a couple Pocket Aces lineups today to see what the bats would have to look like.

Honorable Mention: Charlie Morton & Mike Soroka

Punt Play: Joe Musgrove ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD)

My favorite part about Ace Day is the pure salary value provided. Musgrove had a pretty decent outing last week, 5.2IP/5h/3bb/3ER and 7Ks, and he is UNDER 6,000! Love this play tomorrow, great kicker to one of the top aces and can be paired with a value arm to load up on bats. The strikeout upside has always been there for Joe and its starting to come together. Musgrove’s second nod to hill will be to face a Brewers lineup that always seems to over perform.

Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy

Top Fade: Matthew Boyd ($9,000 DK / $8,400 FD)

Boyd looks like good value in the middle of the pack, and playing a sparse KC offense, but I am scared for Boyd and am staying away until I see that slider return home. Boyd hit two batters in the first inning and could not produce a single swinging strike until the 3rd inning! Nothing was working for Boyd and i’m very hesitant to roll him out today with all the other options available.

Honorable Mention: Rich Hill

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Astros are missing their ace after Verlander went down last week, that leaves a hole in the rotation to be filled by Cristian Javier, a 23 year old who holds some great minor league strikeout numbers, but still needs work on his command.

Los Angeles Angels – Sticking in tinsel town, and picking on another youngster, the Angels get a good spot facing off the Mariners and Justin Dunn.

Value Stacks

Kansas City Royals – As I talked about above, Boyd looks lost right now, no real secondary pitch until that slider returns and a fastball that can not carry that situation.
San Diego Padres – Johnny Cueto loves to give up barrels, Tommy Pham loves to barrel the ball.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I was like the LAD Stack and you can grab the over on Mookie Betts Prop of OVER .5 hits. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: 7/28 Aces and Bases

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The July 28th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Josh Lindblom ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

If you want to load up on virtually any top-bats you’d like, well rostering Josh Lindblom is your way to doing so. It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Lindblom in the MLB as he’s spent the last few years in the KBO. I don’t think Lindblom is a world-beater by any means, but he certainly has high strikeout upside (the 3.5K prop leads me to believe Vegas thinks otherwise) and should keep the ball in the yard.

Lindblom is a (-170) favorite facing off against a weak Pirate’s lineup who’s projected K-Rate sits right around 20%. Nothing spectacular there, but at this price, I’m going to have a lot of Lindblom and pray he keeps the walks down… because I believe that is the only way Pittsburgh would be able to knock him out early in the game.

Honorable Mention: Zach Davies

Top Ace(s): Walker Buehler ($11,300 DK / $10,500 FD) & Kyle Gibson ($9,700 / $8,200 FD)

This is one ugly slate. I’d love to jam in all of the Buehler (-130) I can, but he’s likely to be on a strict pitch limit, so if we use him, we need a lot of strikeouts. Most books are currently showing a K-Prop of only 5 strikeouts with slight juice on the over. That’s a bit concerning for me to pay top dollar for a limited Buehler, but he’s probably the safest pitcher on the slate.

Kyle Gibson (+101) is just another safer play who should keep the ball down against a Arizona squad who has only scored 7 runs thus far in the young season.

Honorable Mention: Honestly probably no one

Punt Play: Patrick Sandoval ($6,600 DK / $5,600 FD)

Did I mention that this slate is ugly? It’s setting up for a Patrick Sandoval (who’s also likely to be on a low pitch count) chalk night. He does have a respectable 4.5K prop with juice on the over, but I don’t like it. This slate is gross.

Honorable Mention: David Peterson

Top Fade: Merrill Kelly ($10,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

Kelly is $10,000 on DraftKings, lol. Kelly grades horribly in my model with an extremely high fly-ball/line-drive rate, barrels, and average exit velocity against. I wouldn’t even pay for him on FanDuel with the significant discount.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Martinez

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Texas Rangers – I mentioned that I think Merrill Kelly grades out horribly tonight… let’s get some Rangers exposure.
Boston Red Sox & New York Mets – This game has by far the highest total on this slate. I prefer going to the Mets’ side because Matt Hall profiles as an awful pitcher against this powerful New York lineup, but I’m cool with Boston bats as well. Stack em’ up!

Honorable Mention: Milwaukee Brewers & Los Angeles Angels

Value Stacks

Detroit Tigers – Love this match-up against a dumpster fire pitching staff that Kansas City is rolling out there in this series. With Kyle Zimmer slated to start and likely followed by Glenn Sparkmann or Jorge Lopez, let’s roll with the Tigers’ bats who are ridiculously cheap on both sites.

Lots of wind blowing out tonight as well.
San Diego Padres – I’ll always have a stack or two going up against Jeff Samardzija.

Prize Picks

With the Mets being one of my preferred stacks, you can grab Alonso and Cespedes on Prize Picks in a mini two man stack to win yourself some money! If they both go over their projected fantasy score, you win! Check out Prize Picks, and hop into the Discord chat if you have any questions!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @StixPicks and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Monday’s Aces and Bases

TimmySigs 5 years ago

written by TimmySigs

MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 27th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 9-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Pablo Lopez ($7,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

Pablo Lopez takes the bump for the first time in 2020 and gets a favorable match up in the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles bats played better than expected over the weekend in Boston, but the lineup is still lacking and shouldn’t be able to keep it up during the week.

~~Lopez leans on his change up, and for good reason, it has great movement and produced a 46% O-swing rate last year. Look for Pablo to find strikeouts in Monday’s match up.~~ Covid-Postponed.

Honorable Mention: Josh James

Top Ace(s) FanDuel: Tyler Glasnow ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD)

Glasnow and his curveball were absolutely electric in 2019 (57% K rate!) as the young hurler was off to a fantastic start before getting injured.

Glasnow should be ready for almost a full workload Monday and looks to pick up where he left off in 2019 where started with a 1.78 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 76/14 K/BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings in 12 starts. Atlanta is a tough opponent but Glasnow was near match up proof before going down and he is just priced way too low at the moment.

Honorable Mention: Josh James($8,600 DK / $6,700 FD)

Punt Play: Asher Wojciechowski ($6,800 DK / $6,400 FD)

The counter play to our value ace, Wojciechowski gets to take the bump against the Marlins, which is the main reason for this play. It’s hard to justify rolling out a Orioles pitcher but Asher has decent command of his fastball and showed some flashes with a few good outings last year. The price sure reflects this one. Covid-Postponed.

Replacement: Wade Miley

Top Fade: Jon Lester ($9,200 DK / $ 8,600 FD)

Lester’s arsenal is rapidly declining, his signature cutter lost a lot of movement last year and his four seam fastball wasn’t effective is the slightest. The four seamer lost a couple ticks of velo that it didn’t have to give away, coming down to a career low 90.8mph. Im going to be fading Lester all year.

~~Honorable Mention: Jake Arrieta~~

MLB DFS: The Bases

On an 9-game slate, there are a ton of different ways to build your offense. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Sunday main slate.

Top Stacks

Houston Astros – Houston should have no problem teeing off against Kendal Graveman and the Mariners. This will be Graveman’s first start since the 2018 season as he missed all of 2019 down recovering from Tommy John.
New York Yankees – The Yankees will be expensive all year and for good reason. The lineup is strong top to bottom and will be a good bet for a couple bombs against the aging Arrieta who lost a lot to his once great sinker.

Value Stacks

Cincinnati Reds– Playing with our fade here, the Reds have yet to turn it on offensively, dropping the opening series to the Tigers. Lester gives them chance to get some runs across the board early.
New York Mets – The Boston staff is thin this year, and they are either rolling out an opener or Phillips Valdez, either way this looks like a great spot to attack.

Good luck to all this week!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Saturday’s Aces and Bases

TimmySigs 5 years ago

written by TimmySigs

MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 25th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Corbin Burnes ($6,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Alright, it’s risky, but he’s damn-near free. Burnes has always been a highly-touted prospect with ELITE swing-and-miss stuff. The problem is, he’s capable of walking the entire lineup and being pulled after two innings. Burnes posted a ridiculous 12.9 K/9 in his inconsistent 2019 season so you always need to keep an eye on him when he’s slated to start.

He’s been lights out thus far in the Brewers’ “Summer Training” and exhibition match-ups and should offer a ton of upside at a low price tag against a Cubs’ lineup that is projected for over a 21% K-rate.

Honorable Mention: Mike Minor

Top Ace(s) FanDuel: Mike Clevinger ($10,400 FD) | Luis Castillo ($9,800 FD) | Lance McCullers ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD)

Clevinger, Castillo, and McCullers have juicy match ups for their opening performance of the 2020 season. Clevinger is facing off against a feeble Royals offense that shouldn’t put up much of a fight as a now healthy Clevinger should mow down batters on Saturday afternoon (just like Bieber did yesterday).

Staying in the AL central for opponents, Castillo has a uninspiring Tiger lineup that finished the 2019 campaign with a team .240 BA and a sad .294 OBP. Expect Castillo to feed the big cats a steady diet of changeups and produce strikeouts.

McCullers is simply priced way too low going up against a Seattle with an implied total of just 3.45 runs and a slate-high projected K-rate of over 24%. Keep this one simple and use McCullers.

Honorable Mention: Zach Wheeler ($10,100 DK / $9,000 FD)

Punt Play: Alex Wood ($7,800 DK / $7,600 FD)

Alex wood was sitting below 90mph with his fastball last year, and keeping it in the zone about 50% it was hit around quite a bit. Woods has a reported uptick in velo this year which wood (heh) make the fastball much more appealing. His changeup and curve were useful last year, with his curveball just being a few swinging strike points lower (48% in 2020 to 54% in 2017) than his All-Star 2017 season. This looks like some good value against a woeful SF lineup.

Top Fade: Steven Strasburg ($10,000 DK / $ 9,900 FD)

The Nationals are coming off the ultimate high of winning it all in 2019, and Strasburg is primed for another great season, but this Yankee lineup is one to fade all season. I am staying away from the high price and deadly lineup.

Honorable Mention: Lance McCullers

MLB DFS: The Bases

On an 11-game slate, there are a ton of different ways to build your offense. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Saturday main slate.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – The dodgers get to beat up the Giants staff this week, the prices will be high, but with great value in pitching on the board over the weekend its possible to get a few of these bats in. Believe me, you want to get some of these bats in against SF.
Houston Astros – The Astros face Taijuan Walker and I can’t think of anything positive to say about him. Houston feasts on fastballs and Walkers is bad, he also games a unreliable split finger that has a career -16pVal. Be aware of crooked numbers early and often courtesy of the Houston bats.

Value Stacks

Cincinnati Reds (FanDuel) – I love this reds team and the middle of their lineup is full of hitters that just take good at bats and have power to boot. With the additions of Castellanos and Moustakas the have as much fire power as they need.
Cleveland Indians (FanDuel) – Sticking with the Franmil Reyes and the tribe over the weekend. You know who else to play from this Cleveland offense, but you can always sneak in salary savers like Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez if you need salary elsewhere.

Good luck to all on this opening weekend!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Friday’s Aces and Bases

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the inaugural Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddack ($8,600 DK / $8,900 FD)

Chris Paddack is one of the best young arms in the game and gets to make his 2020 debut in the pitcher-friendly, Petco Park (without a pitch-count). Paddack is currently a (-130) favorite and was absolutely DOMINATE at home in 2019 (which is really all the data we have on Paddack for Friday’s slate) supporting the following:

.188 Batting AVG Against
.235 wOBA
28% K-Rate

Paddack will face off against a respectable Arizona Diamondbacks lineup who’s projected K-Rate sits right around 21%. I don’t expect a lot of MLB DFS ownership going towards the Padres’ Ace on Friday, so I’ll be more than happy to have a lot of exposure to Paddack. This price tag also helps you jam in some of our top stacks you’ll see below.

Honorable Mention: German Marquez

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,300 DK / $10,200 FD) & Jack Flaherty ($9,000 DK / $10,500 FD)

I don’t need to write a whole lot about Bieber (-215) and Flaherty (-200) as they’re going up against arguably the two worst offenses in baseball (Kansas City and Pittsburgh). They’re both coming off of outstanding breakout seasons and should have no issues racking up strikeouts and hitting value against these minor league lineups opposing them.

Both pitchers are hefty favorites in terms of Vegas odds and make for excellent cash-game and GPP pitchers. On FanDuel, I’m more likely to roll out Bieber due to the savings, but on DraftKings, Flaherty’s $9K price tag is unbelievably affordable.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander

Punt Play: Joe Musgrove ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD)

Musgrove’s price is enough to intrigue me for some of my GPP builds. Joe Musgrove and the Pirates are a big underdog (+179) on the road in St. Louis but that doesn’t take him out of my player pool at this price. I highly doubt anyone plays Musgrove (especially on FanDuel) and I’m not quite sure why.

This aging, St. Louis lineup lacking in power (in addition to a projected 21% strikeout rate) does not scare me one bit. If Musgrove can continue to sit around a 9% Fly-Ball/Line-Drive rate like he did in 2019, his downside is rather limited. For sub $7K on both sites, give me some shares of Musgrove in order to jam in the top bats on this 11-game MLB DFS slate.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara

Top Fade: Nathan Eovaldi ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD)

I’m expecting Eovaldi (-222) to be very high owned on Friday’s main slate (on both DFS outlets) and for that reason alone, I’m out. Eovaldi hasn’t gone deeper than six innings since early August of 2018 and I don’t see him going deeper than five innings on Friday in his first start of the season.

Yes, Baltimore may be terrible and Chris Davis being in the lineup probably gives Eovaldi two free strikeouts, but the rest of this lineup isn’t going to give up at-bats. I think Eovaldi is fine for cash games with the cheap price tag, heavy ownership and a big Vegas favorite, but I have no confidence in his GPP winning upside. FADE.

Honorable Mention: Ross Stripling

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – Good luck being able to afford them unless you roll out Joe Musgrove and/or another punt pitcher, but there’s no arguing the appeal of the 2020 Dodgers. You can honestly stack any part of this offense… they’re that lethal (especially if Jeff Samardzija is on the bump).
Houston Astros – No surprise here. Whether or not they cheat, they’re likely to have the first or second highest implied team total going up against soft tossing Marco Gonzales. Gonzales gave up a LOT of fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity > 93MPH… that’s going to be a problem if he didn’t work on some things in the off-season.

Value Stacks

Boston Red Sox – Love this match-up against a dumpster fire pitching staff from Baltimore. It blows my mind how cheap this offense is going to be on Friday, which will allow you to roster the top pitchers on the slate. Guys like Jose Peraza, Michael Chavis, and Kevin Pillar offer a TON of salary relief if you plan on using some of the other main weapons in the Boston offense (J.D. Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, etc.)
Cleveland Indians – Give me all of the Cleveland Indians on Friday and then even more Franmil Reyes. Reyes is going to hit a home run in his 2020 Cleveland Debut. You know who else to play from this Cleveland offense, but you can always sneak in salary savers like Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez if you need salary elsewhere.

Good luck to all on this opening weekend and be sure to check out one of the sharpest minds in MLB DFS, Brian Tulloch’s Picks and Pivots!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/26 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Indians Can’t Cease Fire

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The main slate for 9/26 DFS is just a simple, five-game assembly of MLB DFS matchups featuring some playoff implications and some sneaky stacks! Let’s find the best one-off plays and a couple quality stacks to get you on the road to cash!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Cleveland Indians at DylanCease

With Jose Ramirez back, the Indians have another titanic bat in their lineup as they try to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. Eliminated from securing their fourth straight AL Central title with Wednesday’s loss (coupled with a victory by the Minnesota Twins), the Indians have a Thursday night matchup that bodes well for the bats facing a hittable Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA). Expect Francisco Lindor to erase that poor showing last night and get some exposure to the 2-5 bats, along with Franmil Reyes and a dirt-cheap Mike Freeman ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at the bottom of the order.

Oakland Athletics atSeattle Mariners

We’ve come to expect a lot from the A’s as September winds down, and this is a prime opportunity for the bats to come alive and pile on some runs on this 9/26 DFS slate. Mark Canha left the game early last night and Khris Davis is battling a stomach bug, but there are plenty of bats to go to in their stead, and while Felix Hernandez is a historically solid pitcher, he’s nearing the end of his career (6.51 ERA this season) and just isn’t the same old King Felix. The A’s also hit well on the road, with a .329 wOBA as a team. I like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien.

Houston Astros at JaimeBarria

The Astros plan on sitting Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, but that just means you can grab some value at the top of their lineup with Kyle Tucker and mix in some “next man up” types who’ve performed well in limited duty this season. They’re not my favorite stack for 9/26 DFS, but they’re certainly viable and a little cheaper to fit in without all the regulars.

9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks toConsider

Chicago Cubs at Joe Musgrove – The Cubs face ahittable pitcher who can hand out free passes and get lit up as easily as hecan rack up the Ks.

New York Mets vs. Jordan Yamamoto – Yamamoto isn’t a bad young pitcher, but he struggles with RHBs and the Mets have a bunch of really good ones.

9/26 DFS HittingCatcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2600)

Unfortunately, the pickings are slim at catcher today, so I’ll be looking to Wilson Ramos and his power upside. The Mets regular catcher is slashing .286/.350/.415 this season and Yamamoto has trouble with right-handed bats (.322wOBA vs. RHBs, .250 wOBA vs. LHBs). Just make sure he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.

9/26 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Matt Olson, OAK at SEA

DK (4,600) FD ($3,700)

My affinity for Matt Olson is well-known among my peers, and he’s deliveredfor me time and again in GPPs. This matchup is an interesting one, because Olsonhas a .293 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties. Olson, who’s been hitting forpower this month with a .345 ISO, will likely face a couple of RHPs and has agood chance at going deep in this game.

9/26 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Aledmys Diaz, HOU at LAA

DK($4,100) FD ($2,900)

With some Astros sitting, Diaz probably gets another start tonight and is carrying a decent slash line (.271/.349/.457) into the 9/26 contest. He has a 122 wRC+ against RHPs this season, is fairly priced on DK and is unbelievably cheap on FD. It looks like I may give him a shot in about half my lineups this evening.

9/26 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

Matt Chapman, OAK at SEA

(DK $4,100) FD ($3,600)

Mr. Chapman homered last night, is very affordable on both sites, and is slightly better against RHPs (124 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs). While he had a relatively quiet September, I like the matchup for Chapman against King Felix here here — and there are not many 3B who stick out in this slate other than him, Alex Bregman (who’s available at SS on DK), and Yoan Moncada.

9/26 DFSHitting Shortstop

Alex Bregman, HOU at LAA

DK ($2,600) FD ($2,000)

Some of the veteran Astros players will get spelled tonight, but Bregman is slated to stay in the lineup and is red hot at the plate (3-4, two 2B, RBI, R last night). He sports a robust 168 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.421/.595 triple-slash line with 119 runs scored, 40 homers, 110 RBI and five steals this season. The hard-hitting Bregman is a fine place to anchor your SS slot.

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9/26 DFS HittingOutfielders

Kyle Tucker, HOU at LAA

DK($4,800) FD ($2,900)

Tucker draws the leadoff spot for 9/26 DFS a night after launching a solo homer against the Mariners. With Jose Altuve getting the day off, he takes over a prime spot in the Astros lineup and has done ell with his chances so far: The 22-year-old rookie outfielder is hitting .304/.339/.571 with 11 runs scored, three HRs, 10 RBI and five SB in 59 plate appearances this season. The price on DK is fair, but on FD he’s just way too cheap.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,900)

I love Nimmo in the leadoff spot today for the Mets, who don’t havea lot to play for but still have an exciting group of young hitters. Nimmo hasa 133 wRC+ against RHPs in his career and will have plenty of run scoringopportunities here. He also has a 16.4 BB% facing RHPs in his career and a 19.7BB% this season against righties – a nice patience complement to his burgeoningpower.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT

DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

While he’s not much of a contact/average hitter, Schwarber has been heating up at the plate (2-4 last night with a pair of singles on Wednesday) just in time for his team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Schwarber is hitting .248/.337/.527 with 37 homers, 91 RBI and 80 runs scored in 152 games overall in 2019, and he’s got a great matchup vs. RHP Joe Musgrove.

9/26 DFS Additional StackOptions:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $2,900 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD), Pete Alonso ($5,000 DK,$4,000 FD)

2B: Ian Happ ($4,000 DK, $2,600 FD), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,700 DK) ($2,300FD)

3B: Yoan Moncada ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD), David Fletcher ($3,900DK, $2,800 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD), Jack Mayfield ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD)

OF: Yordan Alvarez ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Nick Castellanos ($4,600DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Oscar Mercado ($4,900DK, $3,400 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Robbie Grossman, ($3,500DK, $2,400 FD),

6 years ago 0 comments

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