It was another very good night for the rotation! We hit the cash combo with Zach Plesac and Tyler Glasnow perfectly, Chris Paddack pitched well and Max Fried was solid as well. We’ve got another big slate in front of us tonight so let’s just get right to work for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19!
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Pitch Data – FB – 9th CT – 18th SL – 13th CH – 28th
The pitchers like Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger are absolutely in play, but I’m going lower in cash games tonight to afford some bast and Burnes is the first half of that combo. The Royals have crept up to the 12th highest K rate to RHP at 24.2% while being 20th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They do hit the fastball well, but that’s under 40% of the pitch usage for Burnes. His xFIP of 3.11 is high compared to the 1.98 ERA, but the FIP is 1.93 so I don’t believe regression is coming that hard for him.
Over 50 innings, he’s allowed exactly one home run. The K rate is 37.2% and last night we noted that Tyler Glasnow was at 37.4% which is this-best in MLB. The walks are at 11.1% which could be a big issue but even there, the Royals help negate that. They rank 23rd in walk rate as a team and I fully expect Burnes to be very chalky at such a cheap salary. He’s put up at least 23 DK over the past four starts and has a 35 and 41 point performance under his belt.
Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 26th CB – 29th
Kim is not the strikeout artist hat we typically prefer with just a 15.5% rate through his 28.2 IP so far. However, the pitch data really stands out as one of the best on the slate. He throws a split finger now and again as well and the Bucks are 25th against that pitch. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a high K rate team to LHP at 21.8% but they are 25th in ISO. They need to rack up some hits and I’m not sure they will with Kim having a 0.91 WHIP so far.
What really stands out is the Pirates are projected to have seven RHH in the lineup tonight. Through 88 batters faced, Kim has owned that side of the plate with a .195 wOBA, .460 OPS and a 0.38 HR/9. The issue with RHH is the K rate goes down even more to just 10.2%. He’s still under $8,000 and Burnes should carry the water as far as K’s between this combo.
Honorable Mention – Clevinger and Bauer. If you want to be thrifty with offense, one or both is a perfectly fine route to take.
Pitch Data – FB – 3rd CH – 1st CB – 14th
Do I typically want to go after pitchers against the Mets? Not really, since they strike out less than 22% and they lead the league in average, OBP and wRC+ to RHP. The pitch data doesn’t exactly favor Anderson either but this is the first time the Mets will see this young buck. He’s a very stealthy pick for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19. Anderson is boasting a 30.3% K rate with a 12.2% swinging strike rate through his first 22 innings in the bigs.
The other big reason I’m still willing to take a shot with Anderson is his numbers against lefties. The Mets are projected for six of them tonight and Anderson has shut that side down with a .173 wOBA, .334 OPS and a 36.0% K rate. He has some strengths to combat what the Mets do well and has been above 20 DK in three of his four starts so far.
Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 30th CH – 19th
This is one where the numbers on paper haven’t lined up with the results. Heaney has faced this rangers team twice so far this season. The results have been 8.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 K’s and 13 hits allowed. He’s scored under 11 DK points combined in those two starts but on paper, this should be a good spot. Texas has the fifth-highest K rate team to LHP and Heaney is almost at 26% himself.
What’s been impressive is Heaney has stifled the home run ball that has plagued him his entire career. He’s only giving up a 0.64 HR/9 and Texas is 20th in homers vs LHP overall. They have the worst wRC+ and are bottom four in OPS, wOBA and ISO. Heaney should return a solid start, but it just hasn’t worked yet.
Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw (career 4.60 ERA at Coors, with 130 K’s over 133 IP and a 1.29 WHIP)
Los Angeles Dodgers – I mean, come on. They put up a low football score last night and Chi Chi Gonzalez is giving up a .542 wOBA, .467 average and a 2.70 HR/9 to the left side of the plate. There’s a reason I’m looking to spend lower at SP tonight.
Targets – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts, any “cheap” Dodger that makes the lineup
New York Yankees – They were under played relative to the Dodgers and six runs have never felt so unsatisfying. Boston starter Chris Mazza has yet to throw over 75 pitches and has a 5.57 ERA himself. If he gets through four innings, that leaves the bullpen for five. Good luck.
Targets – DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Clint Frazier for the wraparound, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
Atlanta Braves – They get another lefty and mashed last night with double digit runs. I have a soft spot for them after a solid hit last night but they are a great play again. The seasonal numbers aren’t impressive but they’ve had some injuries and they have a lot of lefty mashers to deploy. Mets starter David Peterson is giving up a .314 wOBA to the right side and only strikes them out 15.6% of the time.
Targets – Ronald Acuna, Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley
San Diego Padres – We’ve used Justus Sheffield for the Mariners a couple times lately but I flat out don’t go after lefties against the Padres. They rank at least top 12 in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Six hitters are above a .335 wOBA and seven are above a .200 ISO.
Targets – Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Will Myers, Tommy Pham, Austin Nola
I’ll be treating the counting K’s like a double up again, but I do like getting a little risky with a small bet to go higher. We talked about Burnes but Kris Bubic gets a Brewers offense that does whiff at a top-eight rate to LHP at 24.5%.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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