Starting Rotation 4.7
The train keeps on rolling today and we get our first big day slate as Wednesday tends to be the getaway day for a lot of teams. Generally, this is a good spot to punt catchers since the starter played the night before. We have two really strong arms at the top of the salary chain today so we may need a punt or two in the Starting Rotation 4.7!
Starting Rotation 4.7 – Cash Picks
Shane Bieber ($10,600 DK/$11,500 FD)
There are not many pitchers who can give up three runs and still rack up over 26 DK but that’s exactly what Bieber did in his first game. It was really just the first two innings where things were a bit rocky so I have exactly zero fears about Bieber himself in this spot. I still expect there to be some sort of regression Fromm a 41.1% K rate last year but you wouldn’t know it from the first start. The CSW was at 40% which is 6.2% higher than what he displayed last season. The only “concern” I could come up with is the velocity was down just a tick but he still managed to whiff 12 hitters so it wasn’t that big of a deal for Bieber.
By the splits, I could see Bieber giving up a bomb or possibly two again because the power he gave came from the right side of the plate. RHH had a 1.36 HR/9 against him last season and the Royals’ power is White Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez. They are all righties but Perez and Soler whiff over 23% to RHP and Soler was over 35% in 2020. I don’t care much if my pitcher gives up a homer once in a while when he’s one of the best strikeout artists in the game.
Trevor Bauer ($10,200 DK/$11,500 FD)
I’m certainly not going to kill Bauer for giving up some production in Coors Field, because plenty of pitchers will. It was good to see his strikeout stuff working right out of the gate with 10 strikeouts. Much like we talked about with Clayton Kershaw last night, the pitching environments don’t get much more opposite than Oakland and Coors.
Last year Bauer simply dominated righty hitters with a .192 wOBA and a .146 average to go with a 34.1% K rate. Lefties whiffed 37.7% of the time but did have a 1.89 HR/9. That facet is muted in Oakland and the A’s have really scuffled out of the gate. They’re striking out almost 29% of the time to righty pitching and five of the hitters are projected to be righties. The lefties include Mitch Moreland and Matt Olson who could pop for a homer, but they carry K rates over 25% in the early going. If we can comfortably fit both pitchers on DK, we could be looking at 20+ strikeouts combined.
Brandon Woodruff ($7,200 DK/$7,600 FD)
The first game didn’t go Woodruff’s way but I’m not sure someone who has this style of strikeout stuff should ever be this cheap. He whiffed 31.1% last season and still struck out 25% on the first start while he featured a .462 BABIP. That’s not happening again. We featured last night that the Cubbies struggle against the fastball and Woodruff throws a variation of it around 55-60% of the time. Freddy Peralta whiffed eight hitters last night and Woodruff could replicate that feat. His velocity was up about 1 MPH in that first start as well. Even the CSW rate was only down 2% so there aren’t any huge warning signs here. The fly ball rate was about 36% last year and only 16.7% in his first start which continues the positive takeaways from the metrics. Chicago is striking out over 27% of the time so far to righties and sitting 25th in wOBA. If I don’t have a route to play Bauer and Bieber, I’m likely to pair one of them with Woodruff.
Honorable Mention – Kenta Maeda, Aaron Nola
Starting Rotation 4.7 – GPP Picks
Blake Snell ($9,900 DK/$9,800 FD)
The pricing difference is more significant over on FD but Snell might get overlooked fairly easily on this slate with Bieber and Bauer right above him. Snell was fine in his first start but didn’t exactly make a statement about how far he could go in a game. Snell couldn’t get through five innings and Bieber and Bauer are very much safer. It also doesn’t help that the Giants smacked lefties last season and have picked up where they left off this year. They are only whiffing 17.6%, are fourth in ISO, have a .365 wOBA, and a .883 OPS as a team.
Now, Snell is still very talented and struck out eight hitters in that first start. The CSW was directly in line a 29.1% with what it was last season. Anytime we can get a very talented pitcher at (I’m assuming) lower popularity, it’s worth looking at in GPP. He should face a righty-heavy lineup and he whiffed them at a 27.6% rate last year with just a .232 average.
Hyun Jin Ryu ($7,300 DK/$8,200 FD)
I really dig this spot for Ryu. First off, the Rangers are striking out a ton against lefty pitching so far this year. Heading into last night, Texas had the sixth-most plate appearances against the handedness. The five teams ahead of them have a high-water mark of a 17.6% strikeout rate. Texas is at 32.7% and their most dangerous bats are on the left side of the plate. Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe are lefties and Ryu held LHH to a .249 wOBA last season. He survived in Yankee Stadium and this is a much softer matchup. The CSW was down a little bit at 22.8% in the first start but it was the Yankees, so that’s tough to gauge. You can make a strong argument to approach GPP’s as a Woodruff/Ryu pair with maybe a Blue Jays stack.
Pablo Lopez ($6,800 DK/$7,300 FD)
I don’t think many will go to this play and I’m hoping they don’t. I’m a Lopez fanboy but this spot is solid for him. He’s at home and that’s always been a factor as his home ERA is three runs better than the road version. Lopez is also worse to LHH with a .310 wOBA, .269 average, and a 14.7% K rate. The Cardinals lineup is only projected for three lefties. The RHH are good hitters with the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado but the 36% K rate to RHH in 2020 looks excellent for Lopez. St. Louis is striking out at a 26.3% rate so far against righty pitching which works in our favor as well. Lopez only struck out four hitters in the first start but the 29.9% CSW would be the highest rate of his career if it held up. With Woodruff and Ryu sitting just a little higher, Lopez will likely get the Snell treatment. The Field will skip over him and we can likely get Lopez at single digits.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Gausman since the Padres offense is missing Fernando Tatis for the foreseeable future
Gas Can To Attack – I have a feeling that Brian will talk about the Blue Jays and they are absolutely a great play. They are getting up there in price so I’m going to hone in on a team that has some cheaper hitters that could really do some damage today. Detroit’s Matt Boyd had an OK first start in the frigid weather against what could be a very brutal offense. You’ll have to excuse me if I’m not buying some renaissance here and I’m going with the Twins lineup. Last season Boyd gave a .410 wOBA and an ugly 2.55 HR/9. Enter some Minnesota hitters with the big gun being Nelson Cruz. My running joke is Cruz has been mashing lefties since the Jurassic Era. Last season, this dude whiffed under 8% and sported a .586 wOBA, .442 ISO, 1.445 OPS, and a 283 wRC+. My word. Lock him in.
My next two pieces are Byron Buxton who has been ON FIRE to start the season with three bombs and a stolen base already. He’s under $4,000 and I suspect he’ll be very chalky. The .250 ISO last season against lefties is nothing to sneer at either. I don’t always spend on catcher but Mitch Garver is really on my radar as well. He had a .360 wOBA last season and should be able to take advantage of Boyd in this spot.
Secondary Hitters – Jorge Polanco, Willians Astudillo (can’t spell that last name without Stud)
Betting Section
Free Strikeout Prop
TBD
Record – 3-3
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