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Starting Rotation 4.7

The train keeps on rolling today and we get our first big day slate as Wednesday tends to be the getaway day for a lot of teams. Generally, this is a good spot to punt catchers since the starter played the night before. We have two really strong arms at the top of the salary chain today so we may need a punt or two in the Starting Rotation 4.7! 

Starting Rotation 4.7 – Cash Picks

Shane Bieber ($10,600 DK/$11,500 FD) 

Royals Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB – 1st SL – 17th CB – 17th

There are not many pitchers who can give up three runs and still rack up over 26 DK but that’s exactly what Bieber did in his first game. It was really just the first two innings where things were a bit rocky so I have exactly zero fears about Bieber himself in this spot. I still expect there to be some sort of regression Fromm a 41.1% K rate last year but you wouldn’t know it from the first start. The CSW was at 40% which is 6.2% higher than what he displayed last season. The only “concern” I could come up with is the velocity was down just a tick but he still managed to whiff 12 hitters so it wasn’t that big of a deal for Bieber. 

By the splits, I could see Bieber giving up a bomb or possibly two again because the power he gave came from the right side of the plate. RHH had a 1.36 HR/9 against him last season and the Royals’ power is White Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez. They are all righties but Perez and Soler whiff over 23% to RHP and Soler was over 35% in 2020. I don’t care much if my pitcher gives up a homer once in a while when he’s one of the best strikeout artists in the game. 

Trevor Bauer ($10,200 DK/$11,500 FD) 

A’s Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB -27th SL – 25th CB – 12th

I’m certainly not going to kill Bauer for giving up some production in Coors Field, because plenty of pitchers will. It was good to see his strikeout stuff working right out of the gate with 10 strikeouts. Much like we talked about with Clayton Kershaw last night, the pitching environments don’t get much more opposite than Oakland and Coors.
Last year Bauer simply dominated righty hitters with a .192 wOBA and a .146 average to go with a 34.1% K rate. Lefties whiffed 37.7% of the time but did have a 1.89 HR/9. That facet is muted in Oakland and the A’s have really scuffled out of the gate. They’re striking out almost 29% of the time to righty pitching and five of the hitters are projected to be righties. The lefties include Mitch Moreland and Matt Olson who could pop for a homer, but they carry K rates over 25% in the early going. If we can comfortably fit both pitchers on DK, we could be looking at 20+ strikeouts combined.

Brandon Woodruff ($7,200 DK/$7,600 FD)

Cubs Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 18th CH – 14th SL – 18th

The first game didn’t go Woodruff’s way but I’m not sure someone who has this style of strikeout stuff should ever be this cheap. He whiffed 31.1% last season and still struck out 25% on the first start while he featured a .462 BABIP. That’s not happening again. We featured last night that the Cubbies struggle against the fastball and Woodruff throws a variation of it around 55-60% of the time. Freddy Peralta whiffed eight hitters last night and Woodruff could replicate that feat. His velocity was up about 1 MPH in that first start as well. Even the CSW rate was only down 2% so there aren’t any huge warning signs here. The fly ball rate was about 36% last year and only 16.7% in his first start which continues the positive takeaways from the metrics. Chicago is striking out over 27% of the time so far to righties and sitting 25th in wOBA. If I don’t have a route to play Bauer and Bieber, I’m likely to pair one of them with Woodruff. 

Honorable Mention – Kenta Maeda, Aaron Nola 

Starting Rotation 4.7 – GPP Picks

Blake Snell ($9,900 DK/$9,800 FD)

Giants Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 14th CH – 3rd SL – 27th

The pricing difference is more significant over on FD but Snell might get overlooked fairly easily on this slate with Bieber and Bauer right above him. Snell was fine in his first start but didn’t exactly make a statement about how far he could go in a game. Snell couldn’t get through five innings and Bieber and Bauer are very much safer. It also doesn’t help that the Giants smacked lefties last season and have picked up where they left off this year. They are only whiffing 17.6%, are fourth in ISO, have a .365 wOBA, and a .883 OPS as a team. 

Now, Snell is still very talented and struck out eight hitters in that first start. The CSW was directly in line a 29.1% with what it was last season. Anytime we can get a very talented pitcher at (I’m assuming) lower popularity, it’s worth looking at in GPP. He should face a righty-heavy lineup and he whiffed them at a 27.6% rate last year with just a .232 average. 

Hyun Jin Ryu ($7,300 DK/$8,200 FD)

Rangers Ranks vs Pitch Types – CH -16th CT – 10th FB – 20th

I really dig this spot for Ryu. First off, the Rangers are striking out a ton against lefty pitching so far this year. Heading into last night, Texas had the sixth-most plate appearances against the handedness. The five teams ahead of them have a high-water mark of a 17.6% strikeout rate. Texas is at 32.7% and their most dangerous bats are on the left side of the plate. Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe are lefties and Ryu held LHH to a .249 wOBA last season. He survived in Yankee Stadium and this is a much softer matchup. The CSW was down a little bit at 22.8% in the first start but it was the Yankees, so that’s tough to gauge. You can make a strong argument to approach GPP’s as a Woodruff/Ryu pair with maybe a Blue Jays stack. 

Pablo Lopez ($6,800 DK/$7,300 FD) 

Cardinals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB -17th CH – 11th CT – 27th CB – 24th

I don’t think many will go to this play and I’m hoping they don’t. I’m a Lopez fanboy but this spot is solid for him. He’s at home and that’s always been a factor as his home ERA is three runs better than the road version. Lopez is also worse to LHH with a .310 wOBA, .269 average, and a 14.7% K rate. The Cardinals lineup is only projected for three lefties. The RHH are good hitters with the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado but the 36% K rate to RHH in 2020 looks excellent for Lopez. St. Louis is striking out at a 26.3% rate so far against righty pitching which works in our favor as well. Lopez only struck out four hitters in the first start but the 29.9% CSW would be the highest rate of his career if it held up. With Woodruff and Ryu sitting just a little higher, Lopez will likely get the Snell treatment. The Field will skip over him and we can likely get Lopez at single digits. 

Honorable Mention – Kevin Gausman since the Padres offense is missing Fernando Tatis for the foreseeable future

Gas Can To Attack – I have a feeling that Brian will talk about the Blue Jays and they are absolutely a great play. They are getting up there in price so I’m going to hone in on a team that has some cheaper hitters that could really do some damage today. Detroit’s Matt Boyd had an OK first start in the frigid weather against what could be a very brutal offense. You’ll have to excuse me if I’m not buying some renaissance here and I’m going with the Twins lineup. Last season Boyd gave a .410 wOBA and an ugly 2.55 HR/9. Enter some Minnesota hitters with the big gun being Nelson Cruz. My running joke is Cruz has been mashing lefties since the Jurassic Era. Last season, this dude whiffed under 8% and sported a .586 wOBA, .442 ISO, 1.445 OPS, and a 283 wRC+. My word. Lock him in. 

My next two pieces are Byron Buxton who has been ON FIRE to start the season with three bombs and a stolen base already. He’s under $4,000 and I suspect he’ll be very chalky. The .250 ISO last season against lefties is nothing to sneer at either. I don’t always spend on catcher but Mitch Garver is really on my radar as well. He had a .360 wOBA last season and should be able to take advantage of Boyd in this spot. 

Secondary Hitters – Jorge Polanco, Willians Astudillo (can’t spell that last name without Stud)

Betting Section 

Free Strikeout Prop 

TBD

Record – 3-3

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 4.6

Thank goodness we have some real options tonight, it’s only the fifth day of the season. We have eight games but there are four legitimate ace-caliber pitchers on the slate and none are over $10,000 on DK. It certainly looks like a double-ace kind of night at my first glance but let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.6 and see what we find!

Note – We’re starting to use pitch data from this season. It’s still a very small sample but we need to start migrating to this season. Also, all images are from baseballsavant.com.

Starting Rotation 4.6 – Cash Picks

Lucas Giolito ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD)

Mariners Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB – 23rd CH – 1st SL – 16th

I think the righty for the White Sox might well be the best bang for your buck on both sites tonight. He’s the SP3 in terms of salary but the upside is no different than anyone else. We’re going to start using the 2021 stats and by those numbers, Seattle doesn’t look like a great matchup. They’ve only whiffed 23.1% of the time and are top-five in ISO against righties so far. That’s fine but Giolito is inside the top 10-12 pitchers in baseball. 

The Angels are a tough team to whiff as well but he struck out 40% in his first start and that’s after a 33.7% rate last year. The CSW (called+swinging strike rate) in the first game was 34.5% which is good news for where Giolito was in his first turn. The Mariners were a 24% K rate team last year and that’s plenty for Giolito to exploit. Even the splits from 2020 are excellent for Giolito. He held RHH to a .243 wOBA and stuck out LHH slightly more at a 34.7% rate compared to 32.3% for RHH. It’s hard not to love him tonight. 

Tyler Glasnow ($9,100 DK/$10,700 FD)

Red Sox Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB -26th SL – 21st CB -12th

It’s a day that ends in Y which means I’m going to write up Glasnow. I will get this out of the way that I’d probably just play Yu Darvish on FD since he’s cheaper. Glasnow being the SP1 in terms of salary on that site doesn’t make the most sense. On DK, he’s the SP4 and I’m all over that. His first start of the season was fascinating. Glasnow developed a slider in the offseason and he threw it more than his curve, which surprised me. I assumed the slider would be just to keep hitters off-balance and maybe that will be the case. It could have been just to get the feel for it. It worked as he only gave up one hit across six innings and he whiffed six hitters on under 80 pitches. The leash should be longer tonight and I’m very excited about it. 

Boston’s offense woke up a little bit last night but that’s not a huge concern to me. Glasnow had a 37.7% CSW in the first turn through the rotation and the slider generated a 41.7% whiff rate on the 26times he threw it. If the slider is a weapon and not just a “third pitch”, the ceiling for Glasnow is massive. Boston has whiffed almost 24% of the time so far and even with Wacha struggling last night, he struck out six hitters through five innings. 

Clayton Kershaw ($9,500 DK/$9,000 FD)

A’s Rankings vs Pitch Types – SL – 25th FB – 25th CB -11th

Oakland only has 14 at-bats to lefties this season coming into Monday, so we’re still using 2020 stats for the A’s offense. Yes, Kershaw didn’t pitch that well in Coors Field but I’m not sure I care about that even a little bit. Going into Oakland is a pretty massive upgrade for the pitching environment and we’re still talking Kershaw here. He used the slider a ton in the first turn but he did lean on it as his primary pitch last year as well. In 2020, Oakland whiffed 24.2% of the time against lefties and finished no better than 20th in average, OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They were a very poor offense against this handedness, not to mention not a single current hitter had a FanGraphs rating above 0.4 on the slider last year. I’ll be curious to see where the popularity lands but Kershaw is still an excellent option tonight.

Honorable Mention – I’m not planning on using any pitcher outside of the top four in salary in cash this evening.

Starting Rotation 4.6 – GPP Picks

Yu Darvish ($10,000 DK/$10,200 FD)

Giants Rankings vs Pitch Type – CT – 1st FB – 13th SL – 28th

The ranking for the Giants against the cutter is interesting because they were 26th last season. That could be the small sample size breaking through and it’s not a factor that leaves me off Darvish. I have him in the GPP section simply because he’s the most expensive on DK and the field may not find the need to go there with three cheaper options. Likewise, on FD, they could just flock to Giolito. That does NOT mean that Darvish is not a great choice on his own. We talked last time that the D-Backs were not the best possible spot for him and they went out and proved it. Darvish struggled a bit but the BABIP from that game was also .429. He was due regression from the 2020 campaign but that’s obviously extreme.
Darvish still struck out 26.1% of the hitters he faced. My biggest “fear” is there are five lefties projected for the eight lineup spots. Darvish was slightly worse to that side of the plate last year with a .261 wOBA allowed and only a 26.1% K rate. He whiffed 39.8% of the righties he faced, so the Giants lineup may not give him the upside you want when he’s the highest-priced option on the board for DK. Let’s see what’s projected but that is the main reason I’d go just GPP for Darvish and lean towards the other three ahead of him.

Freddy Peralta ($7,600 DK/$6,400 FD)

I’m highlighting something a little different for Peralta. He’s worked out of the bullpen once this year for two innings and promptly struck out six hitters. Now, he also walked three and threw over 50 pitches in two innings of work but that’s why he’s in the GPP section. What catches my eye is the fastball velocity. It’s up about two MPH over last season and he threw the curveball more as well. Those changes could be to his benefit because throwing a fastball almost 75% of the time is tough to survive on. Peralta has always been a total dart throw for consistency but he has a career 31.5% K rate over 194.2 IP. 

What could be the key factor here is the Cubs have been putrid against the fastball since the start of last season. They finished 2020 ranked 25th against that pitch and that was with Jason Kipnis having a 4.4 rating. No other current hitter other than Ian Happ is above 0.4. This season, the Cubbies have risen…to 21st. They only have one player over a 1.0 mark early and it’s Jason Heyward. If Peralta has any version of control, he could make some noise and has serious strikeout upside. The control isn’t guaranteed so the range of outcomes is quite wide. 

Honorable Mention – I really wanted to use James Paxton as he was throwing fire in the spring but a lefty pitcher against the White Sox is basically a no-fly for me. If you play 20 lineups or more, that would make more sense. 

Gas Can To Attack – We have Coors back on the slate so that’s going to get plenty of attention and I think there’s a pretty clear path to stack Giolito/Glasnow at pitcher and play at least five Coors hitters. German Marquez toes the rubber for the Rockies and he’ll be opposed by Luke Weaver. Marquez in his career has a 5.06 ERA at home with a .350 wOBA and .307 average given up to LHH. That side of the plate has always been an issue and my biggest focus is Ketel Marte. 

He’s started 9-16 on the season with two bombs and is not even $5,000 yet. He really struggled last season but in 2019, Marte posted a .404 wOBA and .250 ISO with just a 14.1% K rate to righty pitching. We can kick in bats like David Peralta and Josh Rojas as they are both under $4,000. Rojas has been leading off for the D-Backs and maybe the thin air gets him moving a little. Peralta has had two straight seasons posting roughly a .350 wOBA and about .150 ISO against righties, positioned in the five-hole most likely. 

For the Rockies, my two main hitters are Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon. Both hitters had average years last year but in 2019, both hammered righties at home. Chuck Nasty had a massive .476 wOBA, .359 ISO, and a 1.187 OPS while McMahon sat at a .353, .242, and .849 mark respectively. Lefties demolished Weaver last year with a wOBA over .400 and a 2.63 HR/9. That latter number actually got worse on the road, so Coors isn’t where he wants to go. That setup still leaves you with $3,500 with catcher, first base, and third base to fill. It’s intriguing in GPP and a Blackmon/Marte combo is likely a cash game lean for me. 

Starting Rotation 4.6 Betting Section 

Free Strikeout Prop 

TBD

Record – 2-3

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 9.20

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering Picks and Pivots: 9.20 today. We’ll be mixing in some Starting Rotation with Picks and Pivots for today! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers

Pitching is…not the best today. We have 16 to choose from and I think there’s five starters that I can build a case for.

  1. Max Scherzer – He’s really not been the Mad Max we know and love, as I’ve been saying all year. The K rate is mostly there but almost everything else is elevated. ERA, walk rate, WHIP, HR/9, fly ball rate.. everything is a little worse than 2019. Having said that, the Marlins still boast the fifth-highest K rate to RHP on the slate. You likely almost have to play him in cash just to match.
  2. Carlos Carrasco – Another pitcher that’s been tough to get a full handle on. He’s a righty facing the Tigers, so we know the drill. He’s just super pricey with Max right there and really only a GPP target. The Tigers put up four runs in 3.1 IP the first time they tangled.
  3. Matt Boyd – We caught the Good Matt Boyd last time and he could do it again, but the matchup is a mixed bag. Cleveland does not strike out against LHP at just 20.4%. However, they are bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, ISO and OPS. Boyd has a 24.1% K rate but his numbers are wildly against what we normally target for most of the time. He’s either going negative points or over 20.
  4. Deivi Garcia – We can continue to ride the lightning with this young righty. He’s really given the Yankee rotation a shot in the Armand they needed it. Through 24.2 IP, the K rate is a solid 24.2% and the walks are just 4%. That was an issue through the minors so it’s impressive to see. The swinging strike rate is 11.9% and the Sox are a top 10 K matchup. Young pitchers like this need to build a track record to be called safe, but the upside is plenty tangible.
  5. Jose Urquidy – Some certain writer in this space was on Urquidy the last time and was rewarded with 30 DK points. That might be a touch high, but Brian was dead on the money when he said Urquidy has strikeout ability. He’s always been far better to LHH which should serve him well against the D-Backs.

Cash Choices – Max, Urquidy, Garcia

GPP Choices – Carrasco, Boyd

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks

One team I want a a part of is the Houston Astros, but it’s a concentrated stack. They have four players who clear at least a .335 wOBA and .210 Iso this year against LHP. It’s Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman, George Springer and Martin Maldonado. The D-Backs signed Madison Bumgarner to a disaster contract by the early returns. Righties are teeing off on him with a .458 wOBA, .324 average and a 4.18 HR/9. Yes, please.

A stack that fits really nicely is the Tampa Bay Rays. They also draw a lefty in John Means, who is nothing like what we saw from him last season. RHH are ruining his life as well, with a 2.96 HR/9 and a 7.06 FIP to that side of the plate. Hitters like Mike Brosseau, Willy Adames and Randy Arozarena fit in wonderfully with the Astros. All three of these hitters have a wOBA over .390 and an ISO over .220.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

With bad pitching, there is plenty of offense to choose from in MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 9.20. Since I’m not entirely sold on Scherzer, I kind of like going the Garcia/Urquidy route in GPP and loading up on whatever bats you can from your favorite offense!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discordwhere we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19

It was another very good night for the rotation! We hit the cash combo with Zach Plesac and Tyler Glasnow perfectly, Chris Paddack pitched well and Max Fried was solid as well. We’ve got another big slate in front of us tonight so let’s just get right to work for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19!

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For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Corbin Burnes

Pitch Data – FB – 9th CT – 18th SL – 13th CH – 28th

The pitchers like Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger are absolutely in play, but I’m going lower in cash games tonight to afford some bast and Burnes is the first half of that combo. The Royals have crept up to the 12th highest K rate to RHP at 24.2% while being 20th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They do hit the fastball well, but that’s under 40% of the pitch usage for Burnes. His xFIP of 3.11 is high compared to the 1.98 ERA, but the FIP is 1.93 so I don’t believe regression is coming that hard for him.

Over 50 innings, he’s allowed exactly one home run. The K rate is 37.2% and last night we noted that Tyler Glasnow was at 37.4% which is this-best in MLB. The walks are at 11.1% which could be a big issue but even there, the Royals help negate that. They rank 23rd in walk rate as a team and I fully expect Burnes to be very chalky at such a cheap salary. He’s put up at least 23 DK over the past four starts and has a 35 and 41 point performance under his belt.

Kwang Hyun Kim

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 26th CB – 29th

Kim is not the strikeout artist hat we typically prefer with just a 15.5% rate through his 28.2 IP so far. However, the pitch data really stands out as one of the best on the slate. He throws a split finger now and again as well and the Bucks are 25th against that pitch. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a high K rate team to LHP at 21.8% but they are 25th in ISO. They need to rack up some hits and I’m not sure they will with Kim having a 0.91 WHIP so far.

What really stands out is the Pirates are projected to have seven RHH in the lineup tonight. Through 88 batters faced, Kim has owned that side of the plate with a .195 wOBA, .460 OPS and a 0.38 HR/9. The issue with RHH is the K rate goes down even more to just 10.2%. He’s still under $8,000 and Burnes should carry the water as far as K’s between this combo.

Honorable Mention – Clevinger and Bauer. If you want to be thrifty with offense, one or both is a perfectly fine route to take.

GPP Options

Ian Anderson

Pitch Data – FB – 3rd CH – 1st CB – 14th

Do I typically want to go after pitchers against the Mets? Not really, since they strike out less than 22% and they lead the league in average, OBP and wRC+ to RHP. The pitch data doesn’t exactly favor Anderson either but this is the first time the Mets will see this young buck. He’s a very stealthy pick for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19. Anderson is boasting a 30.3% K rate with a 12.2% swinging strike rate through his first 22 innings in the bigs.

The other big reason I’m still willing to take a shot with Anderson is his numbers against lefties. The Mets are projected for six of them tonight and Anderson has shut that side down with a .173 wOBA, .334 OPS and a 36.0% K rate. He has some strengths to combat what the Mets do well and has been above 20 DK in three of his four starts so far.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 30th CH – 19th

This is one where the numbers on paper haven’t lined up with the results. Heaney has faced this rangers team twice so far this season. The results have been 8.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 K’s and 13 hits allowed. He’s scored under 11 DK points combined in those two starts but on paper, this should be a good spot. Texas has the fifth-highest K rate team to LHP and Heaney is almost at 26% himself.

What’s been impressive is Heaney has stifled the home run ball that has plagued him his entire career. He’s only giving up a 0.64 HR/9 and Texas is 20th in homers vs LHP overall. They have the worst wRC+ and are bottom four in OPS, wOBA and ISO. Heaney should return a solid start, but it just hasn’t worked yet.

Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw (career 4.60 ERA at Coors, with 130 K’s over 133 IP and a 1.29 WHIP)

Stacks to Target

Los Angeles Dodgers – I mean, come on. They put up a low football score last night and Chi Chi Gonzalez is giving up a .542 wOBA, .467 average and a 2.70 HR/9 to the left side of the plate. There’s a reason I’m looking to spend lower at SP tonight.

Targets – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts, any “cheap” Dodger that makes the lineup

New York Yankees – They were under played relative to the Dodgers and six runs have never felt so unsatisfying. Boston starter Chris Mazza has yet to throw over 75 pitches and has a 5.57 ERA himself. If he gets through four innings, that leaves the bullpen for five. Good luck.

Targets – DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Clint Frazier for the wraparound, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres

Atlanta Braves – They get another lefty and mashed last night with double digit runs. I have a soft spot for them after a solid hit last night but they are a great play again. The seasonal numbers aren’t impressive but they’ve had some injuries and they have a lot of lefty mashers to deploy. Mets starter David Peterson is giving up a .314 wOBA to the right side and only strikes them out 15.6% of the time.

Targets – Ronald Acuna, Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley

San Diego Padres – We’ve used Justus Sheffield for the Mariners a couple times lately but I flat out don’t go after lefties against the Padres. They rank at least top 12 in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Six hitters are above a .335 wOBA and seven are above a .200 ISO.

Targets – Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Will Myers, Tommy Pham, Austin Nola

Monkey Knife Fight

I’ll be treating the counting K’s like a double up again, but I do like getting a little risky with a small bet to go higher. We talked about Burnes but Kris Bubic gets a Brewers offense that does whiff at a top-eight rate to LHP at 24.5%.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Jesus Luzardo @TEX ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

Luzardo is really coming into his own and has been doing some great things with his slider (44% whiff rate) and changeup (53% whiff rate), hes also fully stretched out finally going about 90 pitches last outing. I wish Luzardo would pound more 4 seamers and less Sinkers, but the tunneling has done a good job so far.

The Rangers are terrible at getting on base, they have been taking weak at bats a lot this year and come into today’s game with a team slash line of .210/.288/.345.

Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn

Top Ace(s): Trevor Bauer @MIL ($10,200 DK / $12,000 FD) Kenta Maeda @CLE ($9,400 / $9,400 FD)

Bauer has been dominant this year, over 26.1 IP he’s rocking a 14 k/9 and a .068 ERA! The Brewers bats have been struggling so hard to find run production this year and I’ve been playing any pitcher I can against them.

Maeda took a no-no into the 9th last week! Almost had it. Maeda has been locked in this year and his statcast page is lit up with red to back it all up. Facing off vs a weak Cleveland team here (.208 team BA) I am surprised this price is not higher.

Civale has been awesome this year, I love his approach and the fastball command is just so tasty, he would be a top Ace if not for the great match ups Bauer and Maeda have today

Honorable Mention: Aaron Civale vs MIN

Punt Play: Brad Keller @ STL ($6,700 DK / $8,900 FD)

Keller has incorporated a new curveball to his arsenal and boy has it been good. Keller’s new breaker has been getting a ton of called strikes and whiffs has hes kept it in and around the bottom of the zone. The fastball tunneling has been spot on as well and he keeps all the 4 seamers up.

Honorable Mentions: Casey Mize vs CHC

Top Fade: Jack Flaherty vs KC ($9,300 DK / ( $10,000 FD)

Flaherty looked good in his first outing back but got the hook after only 41 pitches. Flaherty is not fully stretched, and loaded the bases on two walks and then a plunk, which was a bit concerning. So were looking at like a 5 inning ceiling here. Price is just too high with that production cap, even against the Royals. There is a good chance Flaherty will be a top ace next week against the Pirates if everything goes smoothly here.

Honorable Mention: Alec Mills @ DET

MLB DFS: The Bases

No real weather concerns across the board today with a near with the small slate to start the week. With these small slates I really like to focus in on a couple stacks.

Top Stacks

  1. Houston Astros- The Astros are 0-8 against teams over .500 this year. Luckily for Astros though, the Angels are 9-20 and are rolling out Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval could not keep the breakers in the bottom part of the zone and was punished in his last outing. The Astros should feast tonight.

Value Stacks

  1. Detroit Tigers – The Tigers have been barreling the ball really well so far this year and are actually leading the league in hard hit % at 42.4%. Alec Mills got toasted his last time on the bump and had nothing working, have to attack him until he gives a reason not to.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like and Astros stack and Trevor Bauer tonight, and you can grab the OVER on Bauer’s K Prop of 8.5, and Springer to go OVER 0.5 Runs + RBI. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

We have a smaller seven game slate on hand tonight and it’s hard to not want to just lock onto Trevor Bauer as our SP1 in this spot. The pricing just doesn’t make sense to me yet again. Bauer should easily be $11,000 or more. Four starts in and Bauer has racked up an amazing 43.6% K rate and that leads MLB among SP with 20 IP. There’s nothing wrong with the swinging strike rate at 13.2%. Bauer faces the Brewers, whom he has a 36.5 DK performance. That’s been the floor for Bauer and Milwaukee is top three in K%. This is an easy SP1 choice.

I’m interested in some other pitchers that we’ll cover in the Starting Rotation, but I want Lance Lynn to pair up with Bauer tonight. Lynn has been somewhat underrated for over a year now and I love that he exceeds 100 pitches every fifth day. That’s an unbelievable luxury. Oakland can get to pitchers but they also whiff at a top 10 rate in baseball to RHP. Lynn is only 1.1 IP behind Shane Bieber for the league lead and he has a 28% K rate himself. That bumps up to 30.2% to RHH, which benefits Lynn vs Oakland’s RHH-heavy lineup. He should not be under $9,000.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

On paper, this is a very strong pitching slate. There’s not a ton of obvious attack spots so we’ll fall to a trustworthy option – Houston. They are missing pieces to be sure but Angels starter Patrick Sandoval is giving up a .367 wOBA and .860 OPS to RHH this year. He does generate ground balls at a high rate but the 53.1% hard hit rate will come back to bite him at some point. The main targets for Houston are Yuli Gurriel (team leader in wOBA and ISO vs LHP), Carlos Correa, Abraham Toro and maybe Martin Maldonado, pending how you spend on catcher. All these players have a wOBA over .320 and an ISO of at least .172 (Correa) on the year.

I’m then turning to cheap Arizona bats to finish off my stacks. Rockies starter Ryan Castellani has been fine through his first three starts. However, the D-Backs are very cheap and there’s no track record for Castellani. Kole Calhoun, David Peralta and Ketel Marte are all over a .320 wOBA and Calhoun has a huge .333 ISO and a .936 OPS.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

As I mentioned, the offensive side of the ball is tough today. I’ll be listening to our team for ideas and routes to attack through the day. We can always update things in Discord for that side of things. On the pitching side, there’s a ton of options. Bauer and Lynn are definitely my favorite but there’s many ways to go on this one.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Hopefully we can avoid the absolute tire fire that was Friday’s pitching today. Fortunately, we do have some pitchers to feel a little bit better about and it’s starting at the top with young ace Zac Gallen. I’m calling him an ace because he fully deserves it at this point for the 2020 season. His first 30 IP have been a gauntlet with the A’s, Dodgers, Astros, Coors and the Padres all on his resume.

He’s racked up a 30.3% K rate and a 13% swinging strike rate while keeping both his hard contact and fly ball rates under 32%. About the only metric that suggest some regression is the 96% strand rate, but with a 2.40 ERA regression isn’t going to kill him. He should not be under $10,000 on this slate to my eyes. The Giants only have a 21.8% K rate overall but are bottom 10 in OBP, OPS, ISO and wOBA to RHP. Even if San Francisco loads up on LHH, Gallen still strikes them out 28.3% of the time.

We like to get bold here in Picks and Pivots so the SP2 pick for today is going that route. Triston McKenzie is not likely a name you’ve heard of before opening this slate (raises hand). He hasn’t pitched competitively since 2018 since there is no minor league this season. Yet, he peaked at 33 on Baseball America’s prospect list that year.

Cleveland has a long history recently of producing great pitching. In the minors, McKenzie had a 24% K rate and a fly ball rate under 40%. Since he’s facing the Tigers, this is a gamble worth taking. They lead the league in K% to RHP and are 25th or worse in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. He’s under $5,500 which is cheaper than some hitters. Even 10-12 points can make McKenzie a great pick.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

It might be a little tiring because they’ve been my guys but I go where the stats tell me to go. The stats say we have an offense facing a LHP tonight and is dominant in this split. Their ranks are –

wRC+ – Third

wOBA – Fourth

ISO – Second

OPS – Fourth

OBP – Ninth

Average – Seventh

Ladies and Gentlemen, we’re talking about your Baltimore Orioles. They are phenomenal as an offense to lefties and I plan to attack Martin Perez. He doesn’t strike anyone out at a 16.5% rate, has an xFIP over 6.00 with a 40% fly ball rate. Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino and Anthony Santander all boast a wOBA over at least .335 and all but Alberto have a .233 ISO or higher. Also, Ryan Mountcastle is a great add at $2,600. The prospect can be a stack or a one-off option. In the MiLB last year, he smashed LHP for a .349 average and a .959 OPS.

We lived up to Brian’s reputation yesterday as the White Sox destroyed Jon Lester (insert Nelson Muntz HAHA!) and we channel him one again for the second stack. It’s not Picks and Pivots without some LA Dodgers love and they face a LHP tonight. Kyle Freeland is sporting a FIP almost two runs higher than his ERA and has no strikeouts to fall back on at just 14.6%. He’s living on a ground ball rate of 58.1% but the Dodgers are seventh in fly ball rate to LHP at 39.4%.

That’s a bad mix for Freeland and since we punted our SP2 spot, we have some salary. Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor are the first three in for me. However, don’t sleep on the LHH either. Freeland has given up a 2.45 HR/9 and a .321 wOBA through 16 hitters faced. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy both have an ISO over .260 and a wOBA over .375 to LHP.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Hopefully we can nail the stacks as well as we did last night as the two teams approached 20 runs. Now, getting pitching right would be a nice step as well but the lineups come together really well with McKenzie. When we have a talented pitcher with a great organization against a terrible pitcher, it’s worth the risk. The Baltimore and Dodgers stack mesh super well and we can mix and match through their lineups.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.21

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.21! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Pitching was a lot more fun yesterday, let’s just say that. There’s some decent options but many feel a little overpriced as opposed to yesterday. Most of the attention should justifiably go to Phillies starter Aaron Nola. He’s on a three start streak of over 30 DK points and draws a Braves lineup that is really beat up.

Over the past two weeks, the Braves are sixth in the league in K rate to RHP at 26.2%. They do still the fifth best average and 11th best OPS, so there is some danger. With no slam dunk options, Nola is going to fit the bill with his 39.8% K rate and easily career-best 14.8% swinging strike rate. Even if he gives up a couple runs, the K upside is certainly there.

In the same time period that we looked at the Braves offense, guess which offense is dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs RHP? It’s the Milwaukee Brewers. After Jose Berrios helped our own StixPicks to a takedown yesterday, we’re going right back to the well. Is Pirates starter Chad Kuhl anything special? Not particularly. He does have a 33.3% K rate through his 14 IP so far and his swinging strike rate has jumped to 12.8% this year. His best strikeout pitch has been his slider, getting whiffs 24% of the time. Milwaukee is 25th vs that pitch this season. The Brewers are a flow chart offense until they prove otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

In the words of Bruce Buffer – IT’S..TIMMMMEEEEE!!

We here at Picks and Pivots attack Jon Lester every fifth day regardless of offense against him. It just so happens today he faces the Chicago White Sox offense, who have no less than five hitters with an ISO over .210 and seven with wOBA’s over .320. That doesn’t even count rookie sensation Luis Robert. Any mix of Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, James McCann, and Edwin Encarnacion is on the table today. Don’t be afraid to use Adam Engel as a wraparound option either to differentiate even further.

My secondary stack to work with the White Sox is the other color Sox, Boston. They’ve had their share of issues this year but the offense can still hit. With players like JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Michael Chavis and maybe even Kevin Pillar if he leads off, they can hang a crooked number here. Orioles starter John Means is giving up a 48% hard hit rate to go with his 44% fly ball rate and that’s a terrible mix. Furthermore, RHH have rocked him to a .350 wOBA and a .825 OPS through 32 hitters so far. Mixing and matching these two offenses unlocks loads of potential.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

It’s a Sox kind of day for me as Boston and Chicago definitely stand out. With 13 games on this slate, it’s wise to not get too focused on any one team no matter how great they look if you play multiple lineups. Pitching is certainly much trickier than yesterday and we might need to take a couple more risks than we’re accustomed to.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 20th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kevin Gausman ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Man this is some good value. Gausman is absolutely locked in with the splitter this year, allowing no more than 3 earned in any start, and the strikeouts are just pouring in (32 K%) as he pounds the upper half of the zone with fastballs (sitting 96!) and splitters underneath.

Gausman gave us 11ks vs Oakland in his last go on the bump and today’s Angels match up will be the best one hes had all year (LADx2 / SDP/ @COL).

Honorable Mentions: Dinelson Lamet

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,600 DK / $12,000 FD) Clayton Kershaw ($10,200 / $10,100 FD)

Bieber at $12k on Fan Duel might be the highest price for a pitcher yet this year. Last years breakout start continues to impress everyone though as he mows down offenses. Can’t imagine the Pirates give much a challenge here as Bieber has generated 54 strikeouts already this year.

Kershaw is Kershaw. He is great and its great to see him do good and have that fastball sitting at 92mph and up, although the command looked a bit shaky on the heater, the slider is still doing its thing.

Honorable Mention: Jose Berrios / Sonny Gray

Punt Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Everybody loves to talk about increased velocity, myself included. Kikuchi is the latest velocity darling, and while it hasn’t panned out just yet the expected stats are telling us greener pastures are ahead. The Dodgers are a tough lineup to try and get right in front of but Kikuchi’s baseball savant page is littered with red. Here’s hoping we see some improvements today.

Honorable Mentions: Asher Wojciechowski

Top Fade: Brandon Woodruff ($8,500 DK / ( $8,200 FD)

This is a no brainier, the options are bountiful today so why would anyone single out the guy throwing against the Twins. All the plays above Woodruff seem pretty solid so its easy to stick with them and find some value low on the board.

Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright

MLB DFS: The Bases

No weather concerns across the board today with a near full slate.

Top Stacks

  1. Oakland Athletics – The A’s should find themselves into the bullpen early as Alex Young is not fully stretched out yet. Young looked alright during his last outing but this A’s team just has no quit right now.

Value Stacks

  1. San Francisco Giants – The Giants get to face off against Jose Suarez of the Angels today. Its the season debut for Suarez as he missed all of summer camp with an undisclosed injury. Through 18 starts last year Suarez got knocked around a bunch and ended the year with a ERA north of 7.
  2. Baltimore Orioles – The ball loves to fly out in the summer in Baltimore, and Eovaldi loves to get beat up by the long ball.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like Kershaw and you can grab the over on his K Prop of 5.5. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

So….I guess DK is really into the NBA playoffs. I mean, I get it. They’ve been really compelling so far and a blast to watch. However, DK is asleep at the wheel with this Shane Bieber price tonight. He’s under $11,000 and his average is 35 DK points per start so far. This is the same Bieber with a 1.30 ERA, 42.9% K rate and a 19.8% swinging strike rate. That’s 1.5% above the second place mark and he leads the league in raw strikeouts. Oh, and the Pirates are a terrible offense. There is a smash button next to his name and Bieber is good chalk in all formats.

Just as confusing to me is the Dinelson Lamet price. His past two starts have generated 37 and 25 DK, yet his price dropped by $700. The Padres righty is seventh in swinging strike rate across starting pitchers and ninth in total K’s. Paying $19,100 for two top 10 strikeout pitchers seems like a pretty easy path to take tonight. Texas is actually not a big K team to RHP at just 20.9% but their bottom-four mark in OPS and wOBA don’t strike fear into my heart at all.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

Even though are pitchers are not priced accurately, we still don’t have the most amount of salary to build our offense. Fortunately, we have some good avenues and I’m turning to the Orioles once again. You could argue they’ve been my guys but they are almost always low-owned and better than perception. It’s only 15.1 IP, but Nathan Eovaldi is giving up a .446 wOBA on the road with a .354 average and a 2.35 HR/9. I really like a three-man stack of Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander and Renato Nunez. They’re projected as the 1-3 hitters tonight. They also all have at least a .216 ISO and a .328 wOBA vs RHP. The lowest OPS between them this year is .876.

I’ll interested to see how the Diamondbacks come in tonight as well. A four man stack jives really well with the three Orioles and Arizona gets a good spot. They face Oakland LHP Sean Manaea, who has scuffled badly so far. He’s not going to maintain an ERA over 7.00 but the D-Backs have some lefty mashers at very cheap prices tonight. My main quartet is Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, Nick Ahmed and Eduardo Escobar.

All four of these hitters have ISO’s over .215 since 2019 and have wOBA’s over .340. On top of that, all four have K rates under 19% which is a huge bonus. I know Escobar has been invisible so far this year. I’m a big proponent of players like that in DFS. The talent is still there and he’s out of sight, out of mind to a lot of the field.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

I do believe that pitching is going to be fairly chalky tonight. It’s justified and I’ll probably eat it because we could legitimately get 20-22 strikeouts between Bieber and Lamet. Both are underpriced by roughly $1,000, if not a little more for Lamet. With chalky pitching, this is even more of a reason to find lower-owned offenses in good spots. MLB is so variable that the chalk offenses can pretty easily fail every night. The O’s and the D’Backs should be stealthy picks tonight.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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