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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

It’s tough sledding again for pitching options as I’m not terribly interested in paying five digits for Zack Greinke. He just hasn’t shown upside yet to pay off that tag, not exceeding 19.3 DK points in any start. He has been getting his pitch count up but the fastball velocity still sits around 87 MPH. His changeup and slider are all around the same velocity and that just concerns me quite a bit.

The pitcher that does catch my eye is Kenta Maeda. He’s had three pretty strong starts so far (the worst coming against the Pirates) and has a 25.8% K rate. The walks are way down for him, under 5% and the hard hit rate is under 28%.

Drawing the Brewers lineup is a nice assignment right now. Sure, Christian Yelich is heating up fast but the Brew Crew as a whole still aren’t good offensively so far. They rank as the second-worst K rate team to RHP at 29.2% and are 25th or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA. I’d rather save $1,200 over Greinke.

I am beyond scared to say this, but I think Zach Godley is worth a punt here. The Tampa Bay Rays offense has not woke up to this point. They are 18th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, slugging and batting average. Godley’s walk rate is just 8%, which would be a career best. The K rate is 22% through 11.1 IP while the hard hit rate and fly ball rate are both under 35%.

The pitch type data isn’t the most encouraging since the Rays are in the top half against the curve and cutter. Still, he’s under $6,000 and has some potential. He’s almost $2,000 less than Masahiro Tanaka and they both might be on the same pitch count. I’m all about saving the salary for MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.12.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We certainly have some good options on a smaller slate but the first team that catches my eye is the Philadelphia Phillies. They get to face off against Orioles starter Wade LeBlanc and this is not a good matchup for the lefty. Through three starts, LeBlanc has a 2.51 HR/9, 13.1% K rate and a 6.17 FIP. Seven of the projected nine hitters for the Phillies have an ISO over .220 and eight have a wOBA over .325 vs LHP since last year. LeBlanc has already given up 4 bombs to RHH and outside of catcher JT Realmuto and outfielder Bryce Harper, Philly is dirt cheap.

A stack that works pretty nicely with the Phillies is the New York Yankees. Atlanta is pitching Huascar Ynoa, who can likely only go four innings deep after throwing just 39 pitches in his first start. Atlanta’s bullpen has been good so far with just a 3.05 ERA and a 3.61 FIP, but this is the Yankees at home.

They continue to mash and have the sixth-most runs in the majors. That’s along with the third-highest ISO, second-highest wOBA and second-highest OPS. Considering Gary Sanchez is hitting under .100 with a K rate of 49%, this offense still has room to grow. Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela all work extremely well with Phillies bats.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

With Coors Field not on this slate, we can rest a little easier knowing that doesn’t hover over us. The Yankees are likely to be fairly popular and that’s fine by me. Picking an offense like the Phils to go with them leaves you room to be different. I’m more willing to take some risks on pitching today and load up on the bats!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.11

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.11

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.11! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

High End Part One

At least as of this morning, we have a 12 game slate and that hasn’t happened very often this season. Even with 12 games, there’s a whole lot of very average arms on this slate. The two biggest exceptions – Max Scherzer and Dylan Bundy.

Scherzer is coming off a start where he only pitched one inning due to injury. He says he’s good to go and I’ll trust him on that one. Being under $11,000 for Mad Max won’t happen a whole lot so he’s a little easier to fit than normal.

About the only nitpick you can make here is Scherzer has a K rate of 21.7% to LHH. The Mets do project to put five out there. I don’t find myself too worried about Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith and Andres Gimenez. I will point out that Michael Conforto is a great GPP one-off tonight. He has four home runs career off of Scherzer and is only $3,500. Batter vs Pitcher data isn’t typically a stat I use at all but Conforto is approaching 50 at-bats vs Scherzer.

High End Part Two

Bundy has lit the world on fire here in the early going. The K rate is 31/3%, the ERA is 2.08 and both the FIP and xFIP are under 2.85 and he’s only walked two hitters all season. The Oakland A’s do have a .319 wOBA vs RHP but on paper, this matchup sets up very favorably for Bundy.

The most dangerous hitters for Oakland are almost all RHH with the exception of Matt Olson. Additionally, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Mark Canha and Khris Davis all have K rates above 23.5% since the start of 2019 vs RHP. Bundy has face 35 RHH so far this season.The sample isn’t huge so be mindful. Still, he has held them to a .101 wOBA, .061 batting average and a 45.7% K rate. Still only 27 years old, this version of Bundy could mostly be here to stay.

Punt Pitcher

If you’re not liking the build of playing both Scherzer and Bundy (there’s a lot of good offenses today), the punt play pitcher might just be Marco Gonzales. He’s not the perfect fit but this is a GPP geared look at the slate, so we take calculated risks. The K rate isn’t super impressive for Gonzales at 22.4%. However, that would be a career high for him if he can maintain.

Five projected Rangers hitters have a K rate above 24.5% and Todd Frazier is at 20.4% himself. With Gonzales, the fly ball rate is always a concern. It’s at 48% through three starts but his xFIP is only 4.18, which is reasonable. The Rangers are currently 20th in fly ball rate vs LHP at 31.8% so this is a spot to go after a sub-$7,000 price.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

I don’t believe it’s a stretch to say the Arizona Diamondbacks will be the most popular stack here tonight. Still in Coors Field, still badly miss-priced through the lineup and the industry has good vibes after they mashed yesterday. Considering six of the projected D-Backs have a wOBA over .330 and five have an ISO over .220, I would certainly have exposure if playing a few lineups.

Now it’s time for the Brian Tulloch Special and he’s probably going to be mad it took me so long to get there. It’s Jon Lester Day and that means we stack Indians. In the movie Mean Girls they wear pink on Wednesday’s and here at Pick and Pivots, we stack against Jon Lester every fifth day. The Cleveland Indians lineup is built to smack lefties around. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes, Domingo Santana AND Jordan Luplow all have wOBA’s over .330 vs LHP since 2019.

Lester is once again just one giant fraud through two starts. The ERA is 0.82 but the xFIP is a massive 5.63, his BABIP is .091 and his strand rate is 100%. Combine those numbers with a 47.1% fly ball rate and a puny 11.9% K rate and you have the encyclopedia definition of “regression is coming”. Stack away and hopefully Cleveland comes in very low-owned.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

On a 12 game slate, it’s easy to get overwhelmed and want to play approximately 3,275 hitters. Especially for GPP, you have to take a stand. Realize that every single player has the same amount of hitters and pitchers you do. Find the pitchers you want and build your stacks around them without fear of who you’re not playing. For me, it’s going to be a good mix of the three pitchers we talked about and then eating chalk with Arizona and catching Cleveland at much lower ownership.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Tasty Tuesday, Aces and Bases for 8.11

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 11th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Ross Stripling ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

Stripling is dirt cheap on this long Tuesday slate. Stripling has opened the season well, the curveball is incredible as always and the command is there. The Padres see Stripling a lot, and once already this year where they got him for 4 earned in 5.2ip. Strip did get the Padres for 7 strikeouts though, as he has in 2 out of 3 starts so far this year

Honorable Mentions: Garret Richards

Top Ace(s): Max Scherzer ($10,800 DK / $10,700 FD) Dylan Bundy ($9,700 DK / $9,700 FD)

Mad Max came out of the game last week with a bad back but is returning today. Anytime Max is on the mound you can count me in.

Bundy has looked amazing this year, and is coming off a complete game where he produced 30 called strikes to go along with 10 Ks. The Athletics prove to be a tough opponent as they have 9 runs against Bundy’s Angels as I am writing this, but Bundy has already carved up the A’s for 7 Ks once this year.

Honorable Mention: Zach Wheeler

Punt Play: Zac Gallen ($8,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

Coors is undefeated. But damn is Zac Gallen good. This is such a tempting play to me, as Gallen has just made it through the gauntlet of the Dodgers and Astros in back to back starts with a combined 12.0ip/4 ER/1.08 WHIP and 2 BBs to 15Ks. On the bright side, his draft percentage will be extremely low, on the not so bright side.. Coors.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Lindblom / Jordon Montgomery

Top Fade: Mike Minor ($9,600 DK / ($7,500 FD)

Minor has not looked like his 2019 self so far thus year, the fastball is slower, and the slider usage is up trying to compensate for that. That approach is not working. The price is high here and it is rumored that Minor will be on a limited pitch count. This is going to be a high draft percentage play that I feel comfortable dodging.

Honorable Mention: Mike Fiers

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Tuesday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are starting to hit, they are playing in Coors. That is all.
Boston Red Sox – The Rays and Red Sox game was a bloodbath last night and tonight should be no different, the Rays are either going opener or Anthony Banda from the taxi squad.

Value Stacks

Los Angeles Angels – Trout and the Angels get Mike Fiers tonight, both Trout and Pujols crush Fiers, combining for 8 bombs against him. The rest on the Angels are hitting .361 with a .553 SLG against Fiers.
Tampa Bay Rays – The Red Sox are rolling out Martin Perez who had an okay outing against the same Rays last week, I just can’t trust that fastball sitting at 91mph with a meh change up kicking it.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like the Dbacks stack here and you can stack 3 of their offensive players to hit the over on at least 12.5 fantasy points and win 3x your money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Fanduel MLB DFS: Monday, August 10th Main Slate

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Monday Main Slate Summary

Happy Monday! We start the week off with a nice 9-game MLB DFS Main Slate on Fanduel. Unlike the weekend slates full of stud pitching, tonight can get ugly quickly. On slates like these, I think it’s best to focus in on one or two pitchers and really narrow down your player pool. It’s a nice night to take a stand and it’s also a Coors Field night…

In regards to weather, it looks like a relatively quiet night outside of the White Sox @ Tigers game (I won’t roster a pitcher from that game due to rain delay concerns unless things change before lock). Let’s get to it on FanDuel tonight.

MLB DFS: Top Pitching Plays

On FanDuel, I think it’s quite important to ensure you roster an arm that has short odds in Vegas to get the win and someone that is likely to go 6+ innings to get those Quality Start bonuses FanDuel applies. Here are the pitchers that fit that mold tonight:

Kyle Gibson (-190) – Mariners have the highest implied k-rate on this slate. Gibson is a big favorite. No need to get cute in cash games, use Gibson.
Patrick Corbin (-122) – not a big favorite tonight, but likely to lead the slate in strikeouts (6.5K prop with juice on the over)
Dustin May (-155) – The Padres have a very high implied k-rate and have a putrid .138 ISO against right-handers. May looked great last time out and should be able to ride the momentum for his second win of the season.
Lance McCullers (-200) – Not really a fan of his as he’s looked below average in last two starts, but San Francisco has the third lowest implied total on the slate and have been striking out over 23% of the time against right-handers. McCullers is a big favorite for a reason.
Dallas Keuchel (-150) – Again, check the weather before lock. As of now (1PM CST), it looks very risky to roster Keuchel tonight. If the anticipated rain blows over, Keuchel will post a quality start and a win just by showing up at the stadium.
Ryan Yarbrough (-145) – Yarbrough is a nice pivot for GPP lineups and salary relief to fit in some Coors Field exposure. He got beat up by this Boston lineup his last time out, but he has slate leading swing-and-miss stuff against a Red Sox lineup posting a below average .145 ISO against lefties.

All in all, I don’t think it’s necessary to pay up for Patrick Corbin tonight (especially in cash games). We all know we want to get some exposure to Coors Field tonight and it will be very difficult to do so if you roster Corbin. Having said that, I do like Corbin a lot for GPP’s for that very same reason.

MLB DFS: Hitting Stacks, Value, and Best Plays

Well, it’s a Coors Field night… so the offense is pretty easy. Stack the chalky Rockies and Diamondbacks. You know who the studs are that you want to play, but you can also find some value with guys like Elias Diaz ($2,500), Jake Lamb ($2,500), Stephen Vogt ($2,500), Matt Kemp ($3,300), Kole Calhoun ($3,300), and Garrett Hampson ($3,000).

If you’re looking for some other stacks, I’m a big fan of getting some exposure to both the Chicago White Sox (5.0 implied run total) and the Los Angeles Dodgers at home with a 5.05 implied run total. Both offenses should be rather low-owned tonight and offer a nice pivot off of Coors Field.

As lineups start to post for the night, I’ll update this article with some of my top value plays, but for the most part, I’m all about Coors Field tonight.

Thanks for checking out this article on FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – August 10th! Our team will continue to bring you daily content, tools, and projections and a community that will help you make this your best MLB season yet.

Also, make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more content in the near future, follow me me on Twitter @StixPicks and our team @WinDailySports, and hop into our Expert Chat for one on one conversations!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.9

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.9

I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering Aces and Bases for the weekend. Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 8th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.9 time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Spencer Turnbull ($8,000 DK/$8,100 FD)

I will point out on DK that Sonny Gray is vastly underpriced against the Brewers offense and I will be exploring expensive pitching pairings with him (more on that later). There’s a great path to pair up deGrom and Gray with a value stack later on in MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.9.

The righty for the Tigers has been excellent the first two turns, striking out 31.8% of the hitters he’s faced and racking up just a 1.82 FIP. The walks are high at 11.4% but my mostly hapless Bucco offense is 29th in walk rate vs RHP at 6.4%. They’ve hit better vs the Tigers, but I’m still not worried using Turnbull. He really impressed me going up against the Reds his last start, a team that should’ve given him fits.

Honorable Mention – Charlie Morton (Yankees are scary to say the least but the price is low enough for a GPP stab)

Top Ace(s): Jacob deGrom ($11,600 DK/$11,100 FD)

There’s just not much debate to be had here that deGrom is the best overall arm on the slate and should be the most expensive. He’s bumped his K rate up to 35.5%, cut his walks to 4.8%, has a 1.70 FIP…need I go on here? The Marlins are top 10 in K rate to RHP already. Good luck hitting deGrom. I do want to possibly pair him and Gray on DK if I can find enough value hitters.

Honorable Mention(s) – Lance Lynn, Brandon Woodruff (not the easiest spot but the talent is undeniable)

Punt Play: Pablo Lopez ($7,000 DK/$7,100 FD)

Every Mets fan will tell you that it’s baseball law that the Mets offense does not show up when deGrom is on the mound. The man went 10-9 in a season where he had a 1.70 ERA. Lopez looked sharp in his first turn, only allowing two hits and striking out seven.

The Marlins RHP is still only 24 years old and many thought he likely wasn’t ready for the majors last year. He should be able to improve on his 20.3% K rate from last year. I do worry slightly that the Mets are the second-best changeup team in baseball. That’s the main secondary pitch for Lopez but his price is still too low for potential upside.

Honorable Mention – None

Top Fade: Jose Berrios ($10,000 DK/$8,900 FD)

Berrios is why some people have trust issues. I personally just can’t ever seem to get him when he’s on his game and get mediocre results. The K rate was only 23.2% last year and that’s down further this year with his walk rate over 9%. Berrios has given up a 45.5% hard contact rate and has a 4.40 FIP, suggesting his 4.80 ERA is fair. He’s too expensive on DK and there’s better options in his range on FD.

Honorable Mention – James Paxton

MLB DFS: The Bases

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.9.

Top Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays – Until Paxton shows any sign of life on the mound, I’m going after him. Tampa has a .307 wOBA to LHP and the grouping of Hunter Renfroe and Jose Martinez stand out. A sneaky addition is Austin Meadows, who had a .346 wOBA and a .246 ISO vs LHP last season.
Boston Red Sox – They were quiet last night but drawing Matt Shoemaker should help. His FIP to RHH is 9.23 so far and the ERA overall is pushing 6.00. When you add in a 51.4% hard hit rate, 2.53 HR/9 and just a 13% K rate, it’s a pretty grim picture for the Jays starter.

Value Stacks

Detroit Tigers – They have mashed the ball all weekend and now Joe Musgrove can’t pitch for the Bucs Sunday. Steven Brault has to step in after throwing 32 pitches Friday night and not recording an out. Pittsburgh hasn’t let him throw more than 37 pitches on a regular turn yet. The Tigers are getting into the sixth-worst bullpen ERA early here.
Philadelphia Phillies – This could change pending a lineup but this is a good GPP play. The game is only going seven innings so the masses will be off it from the word go. Huascar Ynoa starts for the Braves and he has all of three innings in the bigs.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! I’m picking on Paxton and really like this three man Rays stack to get over 15 points today. Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddack ($7,900 DK/$9,100 FD)

We’ll just get this out of the way – pitching is not real fun for MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8. There’s a few options however. Especially over on DK, Paddack is a real bargain today. We saw last season that Paddack was demonstrably better at home, only giving up a .235 wOBA, 1.02 HR/9 and a 28% K rate. Those ratios are looking similar through two home starts this year and he’s under $8,000.

The matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks isn’t the easiest. They have good hitters that just haven’t hit well yet, but it’s coming. They also don’t strike out a ton at just 18.2%. However, Arizona is also dead last against the fastball this year and 27th vs the change. Those are Paddack’s two main pitches and the salary doesn’t match the talent.

Honorable Mention – Anthony DeSclafani

Top Ace(s): Clayton Kershaw ($10,500 DK/$10,600)

Kershaw is likely a bit overpriced here, but that does make him even more interesting in GPP. If the majority think he’s too expensive, they might not really go towards him. That could be a mistake as we could see vintage Kershaw tonight.

His first start of the season was dominant, striking out six in 5.2 IP on just 81 pitches. He also only allowed two fly balls, generating 11 ground balls over 20 hitters. He leaned on a fastball/slider mix almost the entire time and the Giants are 23rd vs the fastball and 11th vs the slider. The slider data isn’t that great, they’re barely in the positive so I don’t exactly fear that. If Kershaw gets closer to 100 pitches, he could pay off the ace price tag.

Honorable Mention – None

Punt Play: David Peterson ($7,200 DK/$8,300 FD)

The price is high for a true punt but in all honesty, the pitchers on this slate are a grab bag of not great options. There’s a case to be made for Ryan Castellani of the Rockies but I’ll let Brian make it in Picks and Pivots. Instead, let’s take a look at Peterson. The Marlins have been dangerous vs LHP so far and I think some of their veteran bats are undervalued just in a real life MLB sense. However, Peterson has not had it easy as a lefty pitcher so far in facing Atlanta and Boston.

He’s come out of those two starts with a 23.4% K rate and a 3.00 FIP which is fairly impressive. The swinging strike rate isn’t overwhelming at 10.9% but he’s also only allowing a 33.3% fly ball rate. Peterson is mostly a sinker/slider/change pitcher and the Fish are bottom half against the slider/change combo. Peterson is worth a look on this slate.

Honorable Mention – Castellani

Top Fade: Merrill Kelly ($10,000 DK/$8,500 FD), Jake Odorizzi ($10,100 DK/$8,100 FD)

I have no idea what’s up with these prices on DK. For either pitcher to be into the five digit range seems bizarre, especially since Odorizzi is making his season debut. Sure, Kelly has. 20.4% K rate (which isn’t even that great) but the matching 40.5% fly ball and hard hit rate don’t look that appealing. We don’t know how limited Odorizzi could be and I have no real interest on DK, although I suppose FD is worth MME exposure.

Honorable Mention – None

MLB DFS: The Bases

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.8.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – It can be said every slate but the Dodgers have all the potential to score the most runs tonight. They draw Johnny Cueto, he of a 1.42 HR/9, 10.3% walk rate, 5.21 FIP and just a 19% K rate. The main targets are Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson who all have a .262 ISO or higher vs RHP. Matt Beaty would be a great wrap around stack option.
Minnesota Twins – Is there a lefty on the mound? Yes. Are the Twins a great option with Nelson Cruz leading the charge? Yes. Cruz has been killing LHP since the Jurassic Era and adding Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano and even Byron Buxton is a great way to go tonight.

Value Stacks

Cincinnati Reds – Whenever there’s a pitcher who’s not going to strike hitters out, I’m interested. Brett Anderson for the Brewers qualifies as that and even though there’s risk with him being a ground ball pitcher, the Reds have lefty mashers in the lineup. The top of the lineup including Nick Castellanos (.347 ISO, .464 wOBA) and Eugenio Suarez (.293 ISO, .409 wOBA) are just way too cheap and even that little two man stack is viable in all formats.
Boston Red Sox – It’s extremely rare for the Red Sox to be a value but past JD Martinez and Rafael Devers, no hitter is above $4,300. Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogearts, Mitch Moreland and Alex Verdugo are crazy cheap. They’ll see Chase Anderson for about three innings and then the Blue Jays bullpen the rest of the way.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! I’m sticking with my flow chart offense. Do the Twins face a LHP? Yes. Will they likely mash? Yes. These three hitters should exceed their fantasy points for a 5x return! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7

I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering Aces and Bases for the weekend. Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 7th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Griffin Canning ($8,200 DK/$7,200 FD)

Is Canning the perfect example of an ace? Not exactly but he is a talented young pitcher who’s forging his path in the majors. We don’t exactly love the fly ball rate at 44.5% but we do like a 26.7% K rate for under $8,500 on DK. That’s a potential source of cheaper strikeouts.

Now, Canning does draw the Rangers which can be scary with his fly ball rate. Texas is breaking in a new ball park and through five games, it’s the 29th rated park for home runs. The obvious caveat is five games is barely a sample, but it’s at least interesting. The Rangers also haven’t been a major strikeout team against RHP yet at just 20.6%. They are bottom eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so the offense hasn’t gotten out of the blocks yet.

Honorable Mention – Tanner Roark in GPP ONLY

Top Ace(s): Trevor Bauer ($10,600 DK/$11,400 FD) Aaron Civale ($9,300 DK/$9,300 FD)

If you’re paying up on MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7, there’s two options in my mind. Bauer has to be discussed first as he’s been a monster in the early going. He’s got 13.1 IP under his belt and he’s mowing down hitters with a 42.5% K rate and a 1.68 FIP. It has to be pointed out that his BABIP against is only .130 and the LOB% is 100%. There is “regression” coming to some extent but A. it’s not going to kill him and B. Milwaukee might not be the team to force that regression. They have the second-highest K rate vs RHP at 29% and only a .181 ISO and .286 wOBA.

Civale is more of a GPP option because the matchup has more potential to bite him. The White Sox are indeed a strikeout team we want to go after with their 24.9% K rate. The danger comes from them being a top 10 team in the major offensive categories we use with the exception ISO (17th). Civale doesn’t have a track record of being a strikeout pitcher but he’s only thrown 69.2 innings in his career and just went over 20% in K rate through his first couple of starts.

Honorable Mention – Julio Urias, but he is pricey on DK

Punt Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($5,000 DK/$7,200 FD)

Anytime the Rockies venture out of Coors Field, my eyes turn to the opposing pitcher and today is no different. Kikuchi is insanely cheap on DK and he’s shown some intriguing new skills through the first little bit.

First off, his fastball velocity has jumped in a big way. He sat around 92 MPH for much of 2019 and now he’s consistently at 95 MPH. The batting average given up of .333 is skewed by a .500 BABIP and that will come down. His ground ball rate has jumped by 11% to right about 55% overall. The swinging strike rate went from 8.8% in 2019 to 14.5% this year. Even the K rate has come up to 34.2% through 9.2 IP.

When we combine all these improvements with the 2019 road stats for Colorado, Kikuchi has some potential here. The Rockies on the road vs LHP were bottom 10 in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in 2019 with a massive 29.5% K rate. Kikuchi has to avoid Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story but this could be a really good outing for him.

Honorable Mention – None

Top Fade: Zack Greinke ($10,200 DK/$8,800 FD)

You could perhaps twist my arm on FD, but even then it’s a reach. Greinke has had this thing where his velocity takes time to build up the past couple of seasons. That’s usually a spring training thing, but COVID put a stop to that. Instead, Greinke is up there throwing about 86.7 MPH on his fastball. His changeup is getting clocked at 85.8 MPH so there’s virtually no difference in velocity with those pitches. That’s a pretty big yikes for me. There’s a reason his K rate is a paltry 16.7% on the year.

Honorable Mention – Jon Lester

MLB DFS: The Bases

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Friday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays – The slate has 13 games and no Coors Field, so chalk really isn’t any concern here on MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7. Boston is throwing Ryan Weber out there and I have as many strikeouts as he does through 7 IP. The HR/9 is 5.14 and the FIP is 13.46. The Jays should get to him and the Sox bullpen is giving up a .329 wOBA.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Jeff Samardzija is pitching for the Giants and he’s been flat awful through 9.2 IP. He’s always had issues with LHH and this year righties are tuning him up for a .407 wOBA. The Dodgers should chew him up tonight.

Value Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals – This can be a staff pick because I know Nick already mentioned them on a video today and Win Daily employs Brian Tulloch. With Jon Lester on the other side, the Cards are a threat to break open the slate and super cheap with so few games played. Lester has an 0.82 ERA and a 5.56 xFIP with an 11.9% K rate. The math is simple.

COVID strikes once again. I would replace the Cards with the Miami Marlins. Yes, you read that correctly. Nobody ever plays Miami but Michael Wacha for the Mets is rocking a 6.00 ERA and a FIP of 5.25. The top four hitters are all $4,600 or under and can work with any pitching combo.

Seattle Mariners – You’re not going to go overboard here, but Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing to write home about. His xFIP is over two runs higher than the ERA and his K rate has never crossed 20% in any season. A mix of Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, J.P. Crawford and Kyle Lewis will be very sneaky.

Monkey Knife Fight

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Thirsty Thursday, Aces and Bases for 8.6

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 6th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Tyler Chatwood ($9,400 DK / $9,900 FD)

Chatwood is on an a absolute heater right now, his cutter is just what he needed as he can now keep batters off balance in and out of the zone. Chatwood cut down 11 Pirates on his way to 6.1 scoreless innings last time out and is on the mound today against a Royals team that loves to strike out

There is no real value on FanDuel sadly as Chatwood is the top pitcher off the board and the slate is only 5 games. I would roll with the rookie Nate Pearson if you want another option on FD, but I dont love him as much on DK as the options with the two additional games really opens things up.

Honorable Mentions: Not much here today.

Top Ace(s): Luis Castillo ($9,500 DK / $9,600 FD) Carlos Carassaco ($9,800 DK / N/A- FD) Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

Castillo got beat up a bit last time out against the Tigers of all teams. I am ready brush that off though as he produced a massive 22 whiffs through the outing. The usually great changeup was left in the zone in a bit and got knocked around letting in 5 runs.

Castillo should have a good bounce back week facing off against a Cleveland team that has one of the worst barrel rates in the league coming in at 3.8% right now.

On the other end of this game Carrasco will look to continue his good season. Cookie was able to handle the Twins in his last start, only allowing 3 runs and striking out 5. I’m going to to trust the veteran who has started the season with 31% k rate.

Gallen had a bit of a rocky start to the year but it really looks like he found it and the stuff is there. Gallen made the Dodgers look pedestrian producing lots of whiffs to go along with his 9ks. Sadly Gallen draws another powerhouse offense today in the Stros but this looks like the beginning of the outbreak many predicted for Gallen.

Honorable Mention: Nada

Punt Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,800 DK / $6,600 FD)

Montgomery is coming in a bit faster on the heater this year at about 93mph or so. Extra velocity never hurts and it seems to be helping his curveball and change this year. The movement is minimal on the secondaries for Montgomery but he has shown the ability to make the arsenal work so far.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Yamamoto / Nate Pearson

Top Fade: Everyone else

This is a very short slate, even shorter on FD, and I would not feel comfortable rolling out anyone that wasnt mentioned above.

Honorable Mention: Zilch.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs are cruising lately, and the Royals have been an afterthought for them. Brad Keller will have a go at slowing the Cubs bats today, I don’t expect him to succeed
Chicago White Sox – The Sox were tamed for a game by the brew crew last night, they were getting on base but couldn’t find the right hit at the right time. Look for them to bounce back against Josh Lindblom.

Value Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondback bats finally woke up in a big way yesterday, putting up a 14 spot on McCullers and the Astros staff. The Astros are going to send out an opener today and the dbacks will look to keep it going.
Milwaukee Brewers – Flip side of the south side game the Brewers get Gio Gonzalez who has just been using to many pitches this year. With velocity as low as Gio’s he has been nibbling too much and fastballs in the zone have been getting hit hard. The Brewers should find the pen early today.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like the Cubs stack here and you can stack 3 of their offensive players to hit the over on 15.5 fantasy points and win 5x your money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Bump Day. Aces and Bases for 8.5

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 5th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Luis Castillo ($8,900 DK / $9,900 FD)

Castillo should have a good bounce back week facing off against a Cleveland team that has one of the worst barrel rates in the league coming in at 3.8% right now.

Honorable Mentions: Dylan Bundy

Top Ace(s): Mike Clevinger ($9,200 DK / $9,600 FD) Yu Darvish($10,400 DK / $9,500 FD)

Darvish looked great carving up the Pirates for 7ks over 6 shutout innings. Darvish is starting to find his form this year and now gets the Royals who are in the top 5 in Ks, and the bottom 5 in walks taken.

Clevinger wasn’t his normal mad man self last appearance, allowing 4 earned runs and a ugly 5 walks. Now, he did face an evil Twins lineup who is ruining every pitchers day, but he was not the 34% K rate Clevinger we saw last year. I still believe in Clevinger though and the walks should come down and Ks up.

Honorable Mention: Hyun Jin Ryu

Punt Play: Randy Dobnak ($7,000 DK / $6,600 FD)

Dobnak tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Indians last time out. Dobnak isn’t going to wow anyone with a performance but he should be a safe play to get a bunch of outs against Pittsburgh.

Honorable Mentions: Ross Stripling / Garret Richards

Top Fade: Sean Manaea ($8,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

$8,600 seems hefty here. Its so tough to be effective while sitting at 89-90mph on the 4-seamer. Manaea had a hard time getting outs against Seattle so it’ll be a bit before we look forward to one of his starts.

Honorable Mention: Adrian Houser

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Minnesota Twins – The Twins continue to tear apart anyone in their path. Trevor Williams and the reinforcements of the Pirates pen should be no exception
Colorado Rockies – Not much to say here. The Rockies will be ready to tee off against Logan Webb in Coors.

Value Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays– The Blue Jays draw Sean Newcomb today and a ailing Braves staff. Newcomb has only made it through 7.2ip through 2 starts with a measly 5 strikeouts. On top of that Newcomb is allowing a 40% hard hit rate.
San Francisco Giants– This seems like an obvious one to me. The Giants might have a high draft percentage today but its always good to have a piece of the Coors action.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4

It’s that time again to jump into MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.4! Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 4th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Cristian Javier ($6,500 DK/$7,200 FD)

The cash play on both sites is Kyle Hendricks and he should be chalky in that format, specifically on DK. However, Javier is an intriguing GPP option. I want to be crystal clear – he is a large risk. He’s pitched 6.2 innings above AA ball. However, he struck out eight Dodgers in his first start and was wildly impressive.

The Diamondbacks have struggled mightily out of the gate. The K rate isn’t through the roof at 21.8% (about where the Dodgers are) but the rest of their numbers….woof. They are bottom four in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ in the majors.

Javier featured a fastball that only hit 92 MPH but backed it with a slider at 78 MPH. Arizona is 23rd vs the fastball and top 10 vs the slider, but still in the negatives.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Hendricks

Top Ace(s): Patrick Corbin ($10,400 DK/$10,800 FD) Lucas Giolito ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) Lance Lynn ($9,900 DK/$9,300 FD)

We get a nice trio to pick from for Aces and Bases for 8.4 at the top of the list. I would bet Corbin comes in the lowest owned simply due to being the most expensive. After all, this is a Coors slate but keep in mind the Mets are the 12th highest K rate team vs LHP at 24.7%.

Lynn draws a matchup against an Oakland offense that has some power but also can be had with a K rate of 23.4%. They are similar to Arizona in their struggles early, with a .290 wOBA as a team. One point of small concern is Lynn’s walk rate at 13.3%. The A’s walk 12.4%, sixth-highest in the league. A walk or two and then one mistake alters Lynn’s start drastically.

My favorite is Giolito, for reasons that I outlined in Three StriKes today. It’s a shameless self-plug, but why read the same stats twice?

Honorable Mention – Max Fried

Punt Play: John Means ($6,400 DK/$5,800 FD)

By definition, punt plays can be risky and Means fits that profile. He got smacked by the Yankee lineup that should eat LHP but the Marlins are different. They might have a better lineup than most give them credit for but still. Means was excellent at home last year, allowing just a .258 wOBA and striking out 20.5% of the hitters he faced. Hopefully the rust is behind him and it shows on the Marlins who haven’t played in seemingly forever.

Honorable Mention – Jesus Luzardo

Top Fade: Dinelson Lamet

There’s really about two ways that I’m not generally playing Lamet on a given slate. One is if he’s in Coors and the other is if he’s pitching against the Dodgers. Now, if you MME maybe throw in 10% because nobody plays pitchers against the Dodgers and Lamet is talented. Still, you play the percentages and Lamet is not in my player pool tonight.

Honorable Mention – German Marquez

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

San Francisco Giants – This isn’t just a “the game is Coors” stack, the Giants lineup sets up particularly well against German Marquez. He got roasted by LHH at home for a .321 average, .372 wOBA and .894 OPS in 2019. The Giants can start Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. They could even shoehorn Pablo Sandoval for five LHH against Marquez.
Colorado Rockies – It’s boring but Kevin Gausman is on the hill for the Friars and he’s allowed a 50.0% hard hit rate through his 8.1 IP. That’s not going to play at altitude at all. The 27% K rate is respectable but the 1.56 WHIP isn’t and this should be a slugfest.

Value Stacks

*Note* I won’t stack Angels but top prospect Jo Adell is a great price on DK as a one-off to afford some bigger bats.

Chicago White Sox – We talk in Discord about stacks being inherently risky and the White Sox absolutely are that. Brandon Woodruff is no pushover but he did allow a .326 wOBA to LHH last year in addition to a 17.8% HR/FB ratio. Start with the LHH and add a power righty for a sneaky stack. This is the Ricky Bobby stack – if you ain’t first, you’re last.
Houston Astros – Yes, the top bats aren’t cheap but hitters like Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel and even Martin Maldonado can make it work. Madison Bumgarner continues to decline, with a K rate of just 20%, and xFIP of 5.53 and a hard hit rate of 54.8%. The xFIP to RHH jumps to 6.31 and the fly ball rate is 50%.

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!

5 years ago 0 comments

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