MLB DFS Stacks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

I’m still kicking myself for never truly considering Kenta Maeda yesterday and locking in on Carlos Carrasco. They were basically the same price and I’ve been routinely picking on the Brewers, but I digress. We have a really packed pitching slate with some aces and some big names tonight. Some of those names have a reputation not matching their performance.

SP1

We have to start up top with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. This isn’t keeping with the spirit of Brian’s Picks and Pivots, but my initial lean is Cole pretty quickly here. He’s $800 cheaper and that’s not an insignificant amount. Let’s see what the numbers say.

Cole has seen his K rate dip from last year (insert Astros cheating joke here) but it’s still at 30.4%. He’s hit eight and 10 in his last two starts through 11.2 IP. The only pick at Cole in my eyes is the Rays are projected to have six LHH in their lineup tonight. That side of the plate has been an issue through 51 hitters so far, racking up a .331 wOBA. I tend to think that’s a small sample kind of number. The 63.6% fly ball rate and 45.5% hard contact are still scary for Yankee Stadium.

For deGrom, he just faced this Marlins team and only scored 17.9 DK points which is disaster at his salary. Much like Cole, he’s had a couple starts that have been great for strikeouts. He’s also had a couple that have been sub-par. The K rate is about 32% and deGrom has been giving up production to RHH so far. They have a .323 wOBA, 56.5% hard contact rate and a 1.84 HR/9. It’s a bit odd to see both pitchers with some potential weaknesses in their game. My initial lean was Cole and I still may just go with him. The 2020 numbers suggest deGrom could be the better fit if the Marlins have fewer RHH in their lineup.

SP2

With an expensive SP1, my usual goal is to get a cheaper SP2. I can see one that fits the bill very nicely. Pablo Lopez has been delivering on some of his promise so far in 2020. He’s rocking a 2.25 ERA and a 28.4% K rate. I do have a slight concern with the Mets being the second-best changeup team in the league. Still Lopez has such an evil one it doesn’t scare me too much. Additionally, Lopez has been better to LHH with a .212 average, .223 wOBA and still having a 20.6% K rate. $7,200 is awfully cheap and game log watchers might be scared off by his 9.9 DK vs the Mets once already this year. I’m paying more attention to his two 25+ DK games in his other starts.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We’ll need some cheaper offensive pieces and the first stop for me is the Nationals lefty hitters. It should be a little difficult to fit in a Juan Soto if paying up for pitching but we can still use this offense but DK continues to make a pricing error. Braves starter Kyle Wright is getting smacked this year and LHH have a .470 wOBA, .367 average and a -10% K-BB% ratio. Yeesh. We can use Soto, Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera and the still massively underpriced Luis Garcia. Fitting Soto isn’t even that hard with Garcia.

Here’s where we can get a little nuts. If you add Victor Robles to the Nationals stack and punt catcher, you can play a five man Nationals stack with Cole and Lopez as your pitchers. That leaves you open 3B and SS…with just enough money left over to play Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story vs a LHP in Coors Field. Neither hitter is over $5,7000 and I don’t think we need to go into too much detail of what they do in Coors to LHP. It’s really crazy you can fit in Cole, Soto, Arenado and Story all into the same lineup and that has some crazy high potential.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Man this is a fun slate. Yesterday I almost felt handcuffed due to lack of appealing options at pitcher. I felt most of my builds had their hands tied, but today is the opposite. The possibilities seem endless but for the most part, my focus is and ace paired with Lopez for pitching. I want some Coors pieces to go along with my main stack of the Nationals, because you just shouldn’t be able to jam in all these players. Take full advantage of some of these pricing errors.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Wow, pitching doesn’t look very fun at all today outside of a couple options. Number one with a bullet for me is Zac Gallen. He’s averaging 19.2 DK points with a 2.74 ERA, 29.8% K rate and a 12.1% swinging strike rate. If that’s not good enough, he’s compiled those numbers facing the Padres, Dodgers, Astros and in Coors Field.

He gets the A’s tonight who sit eighth in K rate to RHP at 24.9% on the season. Six of the projected A’s hitters are over 22% in K rate since last season, making Gallen a perfect and cheap fit under $9,000.

Ross Stripling has been up and down his first four starts. He has two single-digit DK point games and two of at least 18 DK. At his price, I’m very interested against our favorite team to pick on, Seattle. Some of Stripling’s metrics are great, in honesty. His fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both higher than we like to see. I contemplated Griffin Canning but some of his metrics were even worse.

We’ll stick with Stripling and hope for the best here. We know Seattle strikes out a good bit, almost 24% of the time. Even in the last two weeks when they’ve cut back on the strikeouts a touch, they are still bottom five in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Stripling has some warts but the matchup points us towards success. This pitching tandem might be popular but I’m fine taking the two best looking pitchers on a slate that doesn’t offer me much. You can always get different on offense.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

It’s little early to know where all the ownership comes in but it’s also tough to not love the White Sox here against Matt Boyd and the Detroit bullpen. Not only has Boyd been mauled to a 10.24 ERA so far with five home runs given up, the Tigers bullpen has a 20% K rate as a unit. That’s third-worst and if you can’t strike out this White Sox team, they’re going to do damage.

The core three for me in this stack are Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez. Since last year, all three are at least at a .209 ISO and .322 wOBA vs LHP. It’s easy to sprinkle in Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal and even Yoan Moncada. If Boyd gets bounced early, Moncada doesn’t have to worry about a LvL matchup that isn’t his forte.

We need a creative stack to go with them and I’m looking at another team that mashes LHP in the Baltimore Orioles. WE mentioned it briefly when they faced Patrick Corbin, but the O’s offense is much better than perception. Just against lefty pitching, they are first in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a good pitcher but Baltimore can absolutely get to him.

Fitting hitters like Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez and Anthony Santander gets really fun with the White Sox offense. They all sit over a .330 wOBA and the latter two are over a .230 ISO. Don’t forget about Pedro Severino if you spend up on catcher either. Mixing and matching White Sox and Orioles should leave you quite different and able to eat a chalky pitcher duo.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

We are in line to have an 11 game slate and we always want to look to be different. With offenses like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox and Yankees all in varying degrees of good spots, I hope the White Sox and Orioles come in lower-owned. I’d certainly want some exposure to those offenses we talked about if you’re playing a bunch of lineups. If you’re shooting for the Ricky Bobby “First or Last” theory, this is going to be a fun way to go!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Choices for SP1

Yesterday’s slate looked phenomenal for pitching and then we had some scratches that threw it out of whack. Today’s slate doesn’t look nearly as appealing off the the top. I have to assume that Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler are going to be popular options. The rest of the options are highly unstable.

I can absolutely understand going using one in cash games but this is Picks and Pivots. We’re focused on GPP and there’s potentially a couple gems hiding in plain sight.

I don’t believe Brian would be happy with me covering for him if I didn’t talk up a righty against the Seattle Mariners so let’s look at Christian Javier. He’s been a mixed bag so far with great starts vs the Dodgers and D-Backs but is coming off a poor outing vs the A’s. He’s been using the fastball/slider combo around 88% of the time. Seattle checks in at 28th vs the fastball and 20th vs the slider.

The pitch data is in Javier’s favor and he has 26.7% K rate. He’s starting to look solid at his price. Now we look at the Mariners projected lineup and see that seven of their hitters have K rates over 24%. At under $7,500, Javier is one way to get a quality start without spending five digits.

Choices for SP2

Now it’s time to get crazy because I’m going after Kevin Gausman as my SP2 tonight. He’s pitched 20 innings so far this season and has racked up a 28.1% K rate and slashed his walk rate to 2.4%. He’s exceeded 16 DK three straight games including starts in Coors Field and in LA vs the Dodgers. His .327 BABIP certainly suggests that his 4.05 ERA has been unlucky and the 2.43 FIP backs that up.

His splits so far this year would indicate success vs the A’s lineup as well. He’s faced 45 RHH so far and has only give up a .228 wOBA, .190 average and has a 33.3% K rate. The A’s are just average vs the fastball, and the fastball/splitter have accounted for all of Gausman’s strikeouts so far. Six projected hitters for Oakland have K rates over 24% and five are RHH. Remember that this approach is GPP only but this leaves us with quite a bit of salary.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

If you MME, I would have a Baltimore stack or two. That is specifically for MME only, however. One of the main stacks to catch my eye tonight is the San Diego Padres. I always prefer them against a LHP and Arizona is throwing Alex Young tonight. He’s only pitched 9.1 innings this year so small sample is noted. He still has a fly ball and hard hit rate over 41%, a 5.71 FIP and he’s given up three homers.

The trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers really stand out tonight. Myers and Tatis are in the top 3 of San Diego’s hitters against the fastball and slider (Young’s most used pitches). They also all three have an ISO over .320. If you go full out Padres, consider Tommy Pham and Ed Olivares as well.

To complement, I’m going right back to the well with the Houston Astros. They get another lefty to start in Nick Margevicius and are coming off an 11 run night. In addition, they faced the Seattle bullpen for basically the entire game last night. If you play the main three for the Padres, the grouping of George Springer, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel work perfectly.

All four have ISO’s over .230 vs LHP since last year and wOBA’s over .330. It just comes down to deciding on Machado and Tatis or playing Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa at 3B and SS. Truly, either option works and you can use the other Padres instead of Springer or Alvarez.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

With a much smaller slate on tap for tonight, we’re likely to see more chalk than last night. We talked about the top end pitchers and I would bet the Dodgers offense carries some ownership against Andrew Heaney. Taking the approach laid out here is likely to be a little against the grain, but we should always try to think a little outside the box for GPP.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

I could be wrong but I feel like this is the most loaded pitching slate we’ve had all year and I’m pretty excited about it. Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Dinelson Lamet, Lance Lynn, Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff….whew! There’s a ton to love here. That doesn’t even mention Spencer Howard at just $4,000.

When we are #blessed with pitching slates like this, I always tend to eschew to high end pitching. The theory being why pay top dollar for Cole or deGrom when you can potentially mimic their scores for a couple thousand dollars less? That should leave you more options for your offense which we’ll get to here shortly.

Choices for SP1

My first pitcher in comes down to Civale or Lamet. Both are averaging an identical 23.1 DK points per start and they are only $100 apart. My normal lean would be Lamet. I am a huge fan and he’s been pretty ridiculous through his first four turns. The K rate is 31.3% and the FIP is only 2.63. We do have to note the hard contact and fly ball rate aren’t spectacular at 45.1%. However, when your swinging strike rate is 15.1% those are lesser concerns.

My biggest concern with Lamet is this is not only the second straight time he sees Arizona, but the third in five starts. It’s never really been proven but there’s a train of thought that pitchers can struggle seeing the same team repeatedly. If that’s enough to worry you, simply turn to Civale.

The matchup is actually better for the Indians righty, as Detroit sports the highest K rate in the league to RHP at 31.2%. Civale does have a lower swinging strike rate at 11.2% than Lamet, but the 31.1% K rate overall is identical. Every single hitter in the Tigers projected lineup has a a K rate of at least 20% and six are over 24%. This is truly a toss-up as Lamet is more talented but Civale has the slightest edge I believe.

Choices for SP2

The choice here is a little bit clearer and it’s Montas for me. Much like Lamet, I do have a soft spot for Montas but he’s actually not even hit his real potential yet this season. That’s pretty scary for a pitcher who’s averaging 20.3 DK points so far this year.

Why do I think he hasn’t hit his potential? His splitter has not been a good pitch so far this year. In 2019, Montas had a top 20 splitter via FanGraphs ratings. He had a 22.8% whiff rate on it and only gave up a .155 average and .107 ISO on the pitch.

2020 has seen a marked shift in efficiency with the splitter. It’s not giving up power (Montas has yet to give up a homer) but the .308 average catches your eye. The BABIP of .571 does as well, so this means it will regress to the mean. When it does, Montas has even higher heights to reach. In 2019, the Giants were fourth-worst to splitters and sit 20th so far in 202. Montas is too cheap.

With Montas now being scratched, I’m shifting my attention to making a Lamet/Civale pairing work out instead of spending all the way up to Cole. It might mean a slight downgrade somewhere offensively, but both pitchers have 8-10 strikeout upside tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We’ll have to be slightly crafty with our stacks this evening with our pitching tandem but there’s two that fit well together. That includes a salary perspective and good matchup perspective.

The first stack is the Houston Astros. I was on board with the possibility that Yusei Kikuchi was a different pitcher this year but that seems false. He has a 1.22 WHIP to RHH and Houston is primed to smash LHP. The returning Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, George Springer and then one of Alex Bregman or Jose Altuve is how I’m looking to build this stack.

We need some cheaper options to fill the gaps and here come the Los Angeles Dodgers RHH. We likely can’t afford Mr. Three Homer Mookie Betts but that’s alright. AJ Pollock, Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor fit with the Astros pretty nicely here. These three players have at least a .337 wOBA and .178 ISO vs LHP since 2019. With Angels starter Patrick Sandoval giving up a .362 wOBA to RHH so far with just a 12.5% K rate, they are a perfect fit.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

If everything cooperates, we have 13 games on this slate and it feels like just a million ways to go. Remember, every other player has the same slots you do. Narrow down your choices and stick to your guns. It’s hard not to love being able to play offenses like the Astros and Dodgers with some serious pitching potential tonight, which is where I’m headed. These two offenses really work well together positionally on top of it.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.