MLB DFS Pitching

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20

Friday means we have a ton of baseball action on the diamond tonight and we have some choices as far as pitching goes! Pitchers like Chris Sale, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito, and Lance McCullers are all on the bump tonight, which is a welcome change. Since we have a ton of options, let’s get rolling in MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 and figure out where the best paths to glory are! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

This tier is fairly loaded tonight but only one pitcher is above $10,000 in Walker Buehler. However, I’m starting my lineups with Chris Sale and I expect him to be the most popular option in this tier. Sale looked every bit as good as we’ve come to know over his career in his first start in almost two years. Sale whiffed eight hitters across five innings and threw 89 pitches. His velocity was almost exactly what it was in 2019 and he generated an 18% swinging-strike rate. The ground ball rate was over 58% and the hard-hit rate was only 16.7%, all very encouraging signs for Sale. Factor in the Texas lineup that is bottom-five in every category against lefties since the deadline (and the fact the field has loved picking on the Rangers as of late), we can see a ceiling for Sale and his popularity. 

While I believe Sale is the clear best play in the tier, the next player gets harder to peg. My initial lean is Robbie Ray, as he comes into this start scoring over 21 DK in three of his past four and continuing to be one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball. I said what I said because he’s been a K machine for fantasy and the Blue Jays have badly needed his stability in their rotation. Playing Sale and Ray together could be tough with $3,700 left per hitter but let’s deal with that later. The Tigers aren’t the cakewalk matchup for lefty pitching it used to be as they are first (yes, first) in wRC+ since July 1st against lefties. The K rate is down to 21.3% in that time and the ISO is fifth. Ray does carry a 30.3% K rate into the spot and Detroit is 18th against fastballs, which could save him. Ray is using the fastball about 60% of the time so there is a risk here. Still, he’s been so good all year and this isn’t the first tough matchup he’s seen. 

The last player of the three that will be main targets for me is Lance McCullers. He walks into this start with a 27.7% K rate and while the walks are always a risk at 11.7%, Seattle is over a 25% K rate against righties and inside the top-five in that metric. hey also rank 29th in ground ball rate which is interesting because McCullers would rank third if he qualified at 53.8%. The hitch for McCullers is the splits really do not work for him in this spot. Lefties have a .339 wOBA, a 4.30 xFIP, and the K rate drops to 24.3% which helps his WHIP climb up to 1.60. In the one start he’s had against the Mariners, McCullers did whiff eight and cleared 20 DK points. He uses the curve so much to lefties, 383 out of 395 total thrown and that’s also a small concern since Seattle is top 12 against the pitch. My current plan is to take just one from the Ace Tier because there are some good offenses in blow-up spots tonight. 

Ace Tier Honorable Mention 

Do I think Walker Buehler is going to continue riding his streak of scoring at least 26 DK in seven of his last 10 starts? It’s pretty likely but I don’t think he possesses the ceiling to make it worth paying up at this highest salary on the slate. It’s tough to see him pitching better against the Mets than he just did with 10 strikeouts across seven innings which caps him around 30 DK. Sale has the same ceiling, as does Ray and Lucas Giolito. Now, I’m not playing Giolito against the Rays even though he is the lowest-priced of the Ace Tier. Giolito does at least have lefties on lock this year with a .278 wOBA but it’s interesting because the xFIP is almost identical to each side of the plate. Tampa is seventh and 13th against the fastball and change, the main pitches for Giolito. 

The Mid-Range 

This spot is fascinating for Sonny Gray, both from the matchup perspective and what the field will do with him. On the surface, a righty with a K rate of 28.5% and a 3.79 FIP going against the Marlins at $8,400 should be chalky. They are over 25% in K rate against righties and are 19th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS this year. The issues come from Gray pounding sinkers against righty hitters, 354 out of 469 times this year. His next highest pitch is the slider at 212 and that pitch does have a whiff rate over 40% but the sinker is allowing a .340 wOBA and seven of his 12 home runs. The Marlins are 29th against the fastball but Gray has a .367 wOBA, a 4.05 xFIP, and a 1.67 WHIP against righties. Miami is projected to have six righties in their lineup and if Gray is overwhelming chalk, I think it’s time to get away in GPP. 

Here’s the portion where I’m going to hate myself, but we have to talk about Blake Snell since he’s at home. It’s impossible not to mention his home/road splits this year, even if that isn’t my favorite metric ever. In San Diego, he’s been the ace the Padres thought they were getting with a 2.40 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 34.2% K rate, and a 1.13 WHIP. Even though the Phillies can load up with righty hitters, he’s half them to a .288 wOBA at home with a 30% K rate. Philly is not the easiest spot on paper since they are inside the top 12 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They do at least strike out 25.1% of the time (although as a team, they’ve been much tougher against lefties since July 1). I have a feeling the field will love Snell again which would leave him off my GPP list. For once, I actually understand why the love could be there. 

The Mid-Range Honorable Mention 

Elieser Hernandez starts again for the Marlins and I think the slate is a little too big to try and play him, but he has very tangible upside. The K rate is 26.5% and the swinging-strike rate is 13.6%, while his slider has generated a .113 wOBA and a 35.1% whiff rate. The issue is his four-seam is over a .400 wOBA and the Reds punish that pitch, fourth-ranked in the majors. Over his career, he’s also surrendered a .350 wOBA against lefties to go with a 5.49 xFIP. I won’t be surprised if he has a good start, but I do like other options a good bit better. 

The Punt Tier 

He’s coming back from the 60-day IL, which can be worrisome but Miles Mikolas is at a solid price point and he pitched seven innings in the last rehab start. There’s no concern about the workload and Mikolas is a ground ball pitcher when he’s rolling, with rates over 44% against each side of the plate in his career. Pittsburgh is eighth in ground ball rate this season (fourth since the deadline). Since they traded Adam Frazier, their numbers after the deadline are notable and they are bottom-four in all of our offensive categories. They’re whiffing over 25% of the time and hitting .199. I mean, Mitch White just dropped a 30-burger on this offense. I’ll take my chances. 

Lastly, Austin Gomber makes the cut with Arizona becoming much more of a mixed bag against lefties this season. They used to be a stealthy smash offense but now sit 11th in ground ball rate, 16th in slugging, 20th in ISO, and 16th in wRC+. Gomber has a seriously wide range of outcomes tonight and it also continues to be confusing how he’s dominating in Coors but dreadful on the road. I suppose the xFIP is the same regardless of venue but he’s produced a 23.3% K rate and an ERA under 2.00 in Colorado this season. He shouldn’t be under $6,000 and I do have an interest. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 Stacks 

Do you guys remember how in the past few days we’ve been torturing the Orioles pitching staff and the Rays scored like 80 runs in those games? Tonight isn’t the night to stop that trend with the Atlanta Braves riding into town, gaining a DH spot for the weekend. Lefty Keegan Akin is the sacrificial lamb, uh, I mean starter in this spot. He sports a .391 wOBA against righties to go with a 1.80 WHIP and a fly-ball rate over 40%. Every pitch in his mix gives up at least a .366 wOBA. 

I’m starting a new paragraph to stress this point. 

Start this stack with Freddie Freeman. 

First off, I don’t care it’s a lefty on lefty matchup. If you’re not expecting Akin to last long, it’s not that important. Secondly, Freeman is at a .355 wOBA against lefties and is one of the top 20 fastball hitters in all of baseball. He’s averaging almost 12 DK points over his last 10 games (skewed a bit by a cycle game, but still) and Akin is over a .400 wOBA against lefties. Freeman being the fourth-most expensive Brave hitter is theft. 

My goal here is to squeeze in Freeman and then one of Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley. I’m leaning a bit toward Riley as he’s also in the top 25 in baseball against the fastball this year and has a .315 wOBA. Albies has him beat in wOBA at .405 and ISO at .286, but Riley is far superior against righty pitching. Again, if you think Akin gets smacked, play the stack in that fashion. We can also utilize Guillermo Heredia since he’s fifth on the team against fastballs and has a .354 wOBA against lefties with a .197 ISO. Salary is getting tight but we may be able to squeeze in Jorge Soler as well, who has smashed lefties with a .296 ISO while on the Braves. 

If you ride with Sale and a Punt Tier pitcher, you can actually afford some Coors exposure and the may well be my plan for the evening. Tyler Gilbert is coming off throwing a no-hitter and congratulations to him. It’s an incredible accomplishment and he’s one of just four players to do it in his first career start. It’s a great story but now he has to walk into Coors and I’m targeting Connor Joe and Brendan Rodgers. Both players are under a 19% K rate against lefties with a wOBA of at least .397 and an ISO of .279. Gilbert had a 4.44 xFIP against righties and a massive 58.3% fly-ball rate. That is terrifying and my goal is to get Braves and Rockies in there this evening. 

• Blue Jays against Tyler Alexander 
• Yankees against Charlie Barnes
• Angels against Sam Hentges 
• Padres against Matt Moore 
• Dodgers against Carlos Carrasco 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18

It’s Wednesday and we have a split slate of MLB action with five games in the afternoon and then ten games at night. We’re going to just outline an approach for the afternoon and then adjust once we see what the field is doing and then attack the main slate. We have plenty of work to do in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 so let’s get moving and lay our foundations for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 – Early Approach 

The early slate for me is about jamming in as many Rockies hitters as I possibly can. Jake Arrieta is making his Padres debut in Coors Field and that is a recipe for a massive disaster. He’s rocking a 6.88 ERA with a 6.12 FIP to go along with a 2.19 HR/9 and both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .390. Give me all the Rockies with Trevor Story as the centerpiece since he mashes righty sinkers with a .450 wOBA and .298 ISO. Arrieta is throwing his sinker 62% against righty hitting and it has a .231 ISO on the season. 

What I’m hoping for is some punt hitting on getaway days because the pitching is pretty lackluster. Jose Berrios and Tyler Mahle will stand out and I’m sure that’s the chalk pairing with Rockies hitters because Colorado is cheap across the board. Mahle especially is appealing with a 28.4% K rate against this putrid Cubs lineup. We can use projected ownership in the morning to find the edge but in a general sense, this slate is super clear cut for me. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 – Main Slate 

The Ace Tier 

There are four pitchers that qualify for the Ace Tier tonight and I think my favorite pairing may well be Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. This sets up as a massive ceiling spot for Peralta as far as the splits go because the Cards are righty-heavy and Peralta is at his best against that side of the plate. His K rate is a gaudy 40.9% against righties and the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.21/2.60. The easiest way to illustrate that is the usage of the slider, which is mostly against righty hitters. His slider is ranked as the 10th best on FanGraphs but it also has a 44.7% whiff rate, .222 wOBA, and has 57 strikeouts. An added bonus is the Cards are 27th against the fastball and he has 90 strikeouts with that pitch and a 30.4% whiff rate. This spot is spectacular on paper. 

Opposite Peralta on the mound tonight is Flaherty, who threw 81 pitches in his first start back and racked up 26.3 DK points. His K rate is 26.3% and the Brewers are still inside the top 12 in K rate at 24.3% against righty pitching. His slider/curve mix both feature a whiff rate over 36% and wOBA’s under .275 to go along with a four-seam that has 33 strikeouts (the most for him). The swinging-strike rate is almost 12% Lefties are the better side of the plate but they still only have a .266 wOBA and a hard-hit rate under 30%. We saw a pitching duel last night and could well see another tonight. 

The duo of Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn round out the Ace Tier and I’m willing to bet that Morton could be the chalkiest of the bunch. We saw Huascar Ynoa carry some significant popularity last night and while the prices aren’t the same, Morton has paid off for the field plenty of times lately. His K rate overall is 28% and his last start against Miami generated over 30 DK points. The sort of odd part is his K rate dips slightly against righty hitters to 26.1% and the WHIP crawls higher to 1.18. The Marlins are still a very poor offense but they do rank 13th against the curve. That is Morton’s main pitch, but if Flaherty is far less popular, I’m going to prefer him in GPP. 

Last on the list (but certainly not in my heart) is Lynn. My spirit animal is still a very strong option on the night with a 28.1% K rate but he needs to draw the correct lineup in my eyes. The big man keeps both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA but also sees a steep decline in his K rate against lefty hitters. It dips to 23.3% and the walk rate spikes to 10.3% with a 4.71 xFIP. The current projected A’s lineup has six righties in it, which plays into his 33.6% K rate and 3.00 xFIP against that side of the plate. Oakland is average against the fastball and cutter with a 22.9% K rate as a team, so we need the lineup to really decide here. 

The Mid-Range 

We’re really down to just two options and my current plan is to stick to one of the six pitchers outlined in both Tiers. Shohei Ohtani leads the charge in the Mid-Range with the Tigers sitting second in K rate at 25.9% and Ohtani featuring a 29.7% rate himself. Detroit is just 16th in walk rate which should temper the walks Ohtani can run into with his 10.3% rate. Ohtani has generated a 13.2% swinging-strike rate and a 3.24 FIP and there’s really one hitch in the plan for this spot. Detroit is projected to use five lefties, which could crimp the upside. Ohtani “only” has a 25% K rate against lefties and a 3.84 xFIP while righties feature a 34.8% K rate. I’ve found this odd all season because he uses the splitter more against lefties and that pitch has been evil with a 53.2% whiff rate and a .106 wOBA. I don’t think Detroit is good enough to kill Ohtani but I believe I’ll prefer Flaherty. 

I can’t say that I’ll be totally shocked to see Morton paired with Marco Gonzales as one of (if not the chalkiest pair) on the evening. Now, I totally understand why Gonzales could be popular. He was pushing 45% in GPP for the last start and he had an absolute ceiling game of 41 DK points on the back of a complete game and nine strikeouts. That’s simply not going to happen again but the price is still appealing for a much more realistic 20+ DK points against the same Ranger lineup. Since the deadline, they are the stone worst offense against lefty pitching, sitting 30th in every category except ISO (27th). The season stats against righties don’t look good at all with a 5.53 xFIP and .376 wOBA but we just saw that Texas isn’t likely to take advantage of it. 

The Punt Tier 

The Dodgers will use Mitch White for the bulk of the innings tonight and he’s about the only pitcher I’d want to take a shot on in this range. It might look scary since the Pirates are sending 5-6 lefties in their lineup because White has a .371 wOBA against them. However, we’re only talking 58 batters faced and they have a .364 BABIP and a 27.6% K rate. That should unlock the K ceiling (as much as it is for White and his 23.6% rate so far). White is throwing his fastball about 53% of the time and the Buccos continue to be dead last against that pitch. I don’t think we need to dip this far, but it’s at least in consideration. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 Stacks 

It’s Andrew Heaney Day in Yankee Stadium and that’s all that really needs to be said. In his three starts with the Yanks so far, he’s given up 15 earned runs and eight home runs. I’m pretty sure Jose Abreu obliterated 18 corn stalks with his dong in the Field of Dreams game, but I digress. The Red Sox are a bit cold right now but Heaney continues to pound his fastball over 55% of the time even with his new team. That’s an issue since it has a .265 ISO and has given up 13 home runs, a 48% hard-hit rate, and a 301-foot average distance. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Kike Hernandez, Bobby Dalbec, and Christian Vazquez ALL have an ISO over .230 and a wOBA over .355 against lefty fastballs. My plan is to try to squeeze in Martinez and Bogaerts with a mix of Renfroe, Dalbec, and Vazquez. Hernandez is still a very solid play and all these hitters have a wOBA over .345 on the season against lefty pitching. 

Now, the goal here is to jam in Rays alongside Boston. It’s not going to be easy and we need lineups to make it all work, but they face Spenser Watkins and the Orioles bullpen. Tampa has hammered this team for 18 runs so far and it’s time for the Captain. 

Austin Meadows is up first for me since 11 of his home runs have come against fastballs this season and Watkins is seeing his get hit for a 55% hard-hit rate and a .347 wOBA. Meadows has a .306 ISO against righties on the year and Watkins has produced just a 17.8% K rate against lefties. I also love Randy Arozarena since he hammers righty fastballs for a 327-foot average distance and a .324 ISO. Watkins has been reverse-splits with a 6.04 xFIP against the right side of the plate so far. We can also mix and match hitters like Brandon Lowe(highest ISO against righty fastballs on the team at .398), Nelson Cruz, and Wander Franco but that will take sacrificing some of the Red Sox. 

• Atlanta against Jesus Luzardo 
• Phillies against MadBum
• Dodgers against JT Brubaker
• Seattle (mini stack only) against Folty 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17

We are back for a jam-packed Tuesday night slate and a big thank you to Brian for covering me yesterday! It’s great to have one of the best minds in DFS back from the wilderness (the man hit like 7,245 home runs calls last night) and we have another fun slate tonight. For once, the MLB DFS Starting Rotation actually looks like it might have a bunch of options so let’s go to work and lay our foundation for green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 – Main Targets 

Note – With NFL around the corner and starting to demand attention, we’re going to tweak the format in the article a bit. I want to promise that the amount of work being done is the exact same and will not change even when NFL officially starts. The new format will just allow me to streamline things just a little to get ideas on paper. Let’s continue to find great pitching options! 

The Ace Tier 

I’m generally going to be reserving this tier for any pitcher over $9,000 on DK moving forward and there are seven pitchers in that range tonight. In my eyes, there will be two main targets and then one honorable mention, and the two that I really like are Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez. 

Let’s get the obvious out there and say that the odds of Burnes replicating his massive 49 DK from the last start are virtually nil. Having said that, his salary actually went down which is fairly egregious. The matchup is still string but the Cardinals whiff just 22% of the time as opposed to the nearly 30% the Cubs have been sporting lately. St. Louis is also in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching. They do rank 12th against the cutter which is a small concern but at the same time, only four pitches have a higher FanGraphs rating than a Burnes cutter (Brandon Woodruff, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler with fastballs, and Charlie Morton curveballs). Perhaps the best aspect is Burnes has been death against righty hitting with a .217 wOBA, 2.01 xFIP, 39.3% K rate, and a 24% hard-hit rate. The Cards project for six righties and the pitcher spot, perfect for another strong showing from Burnes. 

I do very much prefer Burnes in part because Valdez does only have a 22.3% K rate and the Royals are not a heavy strikeout offense at just 20.8%, second-lowest in baseball. However, they are also third in ground ball rate at 46.3% on the year while Valdez has generated a massive 69.4% ground ball rate himself. He may not have the highest strikeout upside on the slate, but he could make up for that by going seven innings deep and not allowing very much production. He uses his curveball about 30% of the time, especially to righty hitters, and the Royals project to have seven in the lineup. That pitch has a 43.3% whiff rate with just a .182 wOBA given up. The only real issue here is the K rate drops a bit against righties and on paper, Burnes has the clearer path to a ceiling game. 

Ace Tier Honorable Mention 

Chris Bassitt – The matchup isn’t going to be the easiest as the White Sox get healthy but Bassitt might be one of the most underappreciated pitchers of the season. The White Sox are still second in ground ball rate against righty pitching this season which is a big plus for Bassitt. He sports a 50.7% ground ball rate and a 24.2% hard-hit rate against righty hitters, which the Sox project to have six of. If he’s very unpopular, the 25.3% K rate could survive this lineup. 

The Mid-Range Tier 

Normally, this range will be in the $8,900-$7,500 range, give or take. I really like some of the pitchers in this portion of the salary grid tonight, starting with Alek Manoah. He sports a 29.3% K rate on the season and all of his main three pitches have a wOBA under .260 and whiff rates of at least 26%. He’s another pitcher coming off a ceiling game of 32 DK and seeing his price dip to a very affordable point. You can make the case that Washington rolling out a lineup with a projected four lefties is a concern. Manoah has seen some sharp splits in the early stages of his career and lefties have got him for a .317 wOBA. However, two points have me a little less worried. First, the BABIP is .308 and the xFIP is .344. Second, the lefties in the Nationals lineup (outside of the awesome Juan Soto) all sit under a .320 wOBA. Manoah is also whiffing that side over 32% so it’s a good mix for him tonight. 

Tanner Houck is the next man up and the Yankee lineup can be had against righty pitching. He’s been phenomenal through 30.2 IP with a 1.84/2.21 FIP/xFIP combo to go along with his 2.93 ERA. The K rate is approaching 35% and the walk rate is under 6% with a fly-ball rate of just 28.8%. His slider has generated a 39.2% whiff rate and a 13.4% swinging-strike rate overall. Both sides of the plate are under a .290 wOBA and he’s actually been even nastier against the right side with a K rate of 39.7%, a 1.37 FIP, and a 2.00 xFIP. Since he gets the second game of a doubleheader, he’ll face a tired lineup and could even catch them sitting a player or two. 

Logan Webb has some interest but I think we need to understand the difference in the matchup between his last start and tonight. The Mets are a tougher cookie than the Rockies on the road the most worrisome part is Webb is worse against lefties. They have a .300 wOBA but they also only have a 2.97 xFIP and Webb has a 29.2% K rate at home. The Mets are seventh in ground ball rate against righty pitching and Webb has generated a 60.2% ground ball rate. My largest fear with Webb in this spot is his slider is his best pitch with 43 strikeouts, a .193 wOBA, and a 46% whiff rate. The issues stem from out of 354 sliders this year, only 106 have been throw to lefty hitters. 

We get Huascar Ynoa back tonight as he’s finished with his rehab and he threw over 80 pitches in the last start, erasing any real fears about a pitch count. Miami is just 16th against the slider but firmly in the negative ratings at -13.4 while that is the primary pitch for Ynoa. In his 44.2 IP, he racked up a 3.18 xFIP and 3.02 ERA with a 27.9% K rate. That’s immense for this salary and he has a 46.6% ground ball rate on top of that. The 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 31.6% CSW is pretty elite as well, salary considered. The slider was incredible at the start of the season with a .234 wOBA and a 42.8% whiff rate. If it maintained the FanGraphs rating it earned this year across 120 innings, it would rank as the best slider in baseball. Maybe that’s not fair to just extrapolate the number, but it tells you how nasty that pitch was. Here’s a huge caveat – he was way worse against righties with a .340 wOBA but the xFIP is also 3.43. Miami is whiffing at a 25.1% rate and I do like Ynoa, but if he’s chalky I think he could wind up being a very smart fade. 

Mid-Range Honorable Mention 

German Marquez – I’m really not going to go here against the Padres but Marquez has been very good even in Coors. He has a 3.05 ERA, .258 wOBA, 3.49 xFIP, and a 24.4% K rate. Maybe the most impressive aspect is the 0.44 HR/9 but the Padres have the third-lowest K rate against righty pitching. I may just not be heavy on Padres hitters as opposed to playing Marquez himself. 

The Punt Tier 

When we’re in this range, there will always be some major risk and that’s just going to come with the territory. You can build some crazy offensive lineups with Taylor Hearn as an SP2 on DK since he’s only $4,700. Through 60.2 IP, Hearn has put some solid metrics on paper with a 24.2% K rate and 4.01 ERA/4.66 xFIP. The righties in the Seattle lineup are a concern as Hearn has given up a .350 wOBA and a 5.08 xFIP against them. However, Seattle could have four lefties in the lineup and that’s been where Hearn has been very good with a 29.3% K rate and just a 3.52 FIP. Against lefty pitching, Seattle is 25th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, OPS, and they strike out 26.2% of the time. Hearn also uses the fastball about 54% of the time and the Mariners rank 28th against that pitch. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 Stacks 

I’m surprised to see how affordable the Dodgers are tonight against Wil Crowe and the Pirates bullpen. Crowe is getting hit hard from each side of the plate and righties have a .410 wOBA against him with a 6.55 FIP. Let’s start on that side with Trea and Justin Turner, both of who hit righty fastballs to the tune of an ISO over .205 and a wOBA over .375. They both have a wOBA over .350 against righties overall this season and I want one of them, likely siding with Trea ahead of Justin. 

The main reason I only want one of those hitters is that I want lefty Max Muncy who destroys righty fastballs with a .443 ISO, .476 wOBA, 55% hard-hit rate, and a 317-foot average distance. He also carries a 16.2% walk rate, a .283 ISO, and .397 wOBA against righties in general. I will also happily take the discounted Cody Bellinger, who looks like he’s waking up from a terrible season so far. He’s averaging 10 DK points across his last 10 games and starting to show some life. We can maybe even squeeze in Corey Seager if we get the right cheap stack since the Dodgers are so underpriced in general. I want to see their lineup but I’ll be interested in just about any Dodger this evening. 

• Astros against Daniel Lynch (cheaper righty hitters)
• Rays against John Means (cheaper righty hitters)
• Tigers against Dylan Bundy 
• Twins against Eli Morgan 
• Blue Jays against Erick Fedde 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13

We are back in action with a full slate tonight of 14 games and we have a fairly deep roster of pitching options. I think there are at least six pitchers that will make the cut as a main target, let alone some Honorable Mention candidates. With that in mind, we have a ton to get to in MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 so let’s get rolling and set our foundation for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 – Main Targets 

Zack Wheeler 

I will start by saying I don’t think Wheeler is a must (at least in GPP) and one of the large knocks against him is the Reds are first against the fastball this season. That could be the most important factor in this start for Wheeler since he throws a four-seam 41.4% of the time and he has recorded 80 strikeouts with it as well. Cincinnati is not the team we attack for strikeouts generally since they only have a 23.2% K rate and they are second in wOBA, seventh in wRC+, and second in OPS. We’re not getting a discount on Wheeler after he scored 49.5 DK points last time but I wouldn’t expect another complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts tonight. He does have a 50.3% ground ball rate, a 29.4% K rate, and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate. To Wheeler’s credit, he also has a wOBA of exactly .249 to each side of the plate. It’s more just a question of upside at the salary when we have other options but Wheeler could be this year’s National League Cy Young. 

Robbie Ray 

In my eyes, the savings of $1,100 for Ray is well worth it because he’s in the far superior spot on paper. Seattle is third in K rate at 26.5% against lefties this season, Ray sits at 30.2% himself, and his fastball is ranked as the seventh-best in baseball via FanGraphs. That’s a huge contrast to Wheeler’s matchup with his fastball because Ray sits on his about 60% of the time and Seattle is 28th against that pitch. Ray has whiffed 79 hitters with the four-seam and 69 with the slider and both have a whiff rate of at least 24% (the slider is nasty at 44.7%). The 14.9% swinging-strike rate is quite impressive with such a fastball-heavy approach and he’s third in the league in that metric. A bonus for Ray is the Mariners typically still play 2-4 lefties in their lineup and Ray has held that side to a 2.49 xFIP, .250 wOBA, and a 33.9% K rate. Ray has far more factors lining up for him than Wheeler, not the least of which is the salary difference. 

Jack Flaherty 

Let’s be clear right off the bat that Captain Jack is GPP ONLY and I fully expect the field to gravitate to Charlie Morton for the exact same price. That opens a lane for us since Flaherty threw 75 pitches in the last rehab start and should be fine for a normal workload here. We only have a 62 IP sample this season for Flaherty has a 26.3% K rate and just a 1.03 WHIP. He doesn’t get to deal with the pitcher spot since it’s in an AL park but there should be five righties in the lineup. That’s an advantage for Flaherty with a 31% K rate, a 3.41 xFIP, and a .252 wOBA. Every pitch outside of his four-seam has a whiff rate over 31.5% and the four-seam has a .273 wOBA. With the Royals sitting 25th or lower in all of our offensive categories, this is a fairly soft landing spot for the returning ace. 

Shane McClanahan 

The young lefty could wind up being one of my favorite plays on the slate. First off, he’s posted above 25 DK points in back-to-back starts and his salary went down $800. Thank you very much, DK pricing algorithm. Since Minnesota traded Nelson Cruz to these Rays, they have faced a lefty for 201 plate appearances. That’s 15th in baseball in that time and they have hit the skids against southpaws. They are 21st in OBP, 29th in slugging, 27th in OPS, 29th in ISO, and 25th in wOBA and wRC+. All of that is coming with a 24.9% K rate and McClanahan has thrown at least 88 pitches in five straight starts. The K rate is 28.1% and his swinging-strike rate is elite at 15.7%. His three pitches that aren’t his four-seam all have a whiff rate over 41.5% and he should be able to feast on this Minnesota lineup. 

Adbert Alzolay 

We always need to be careful if we’re considering playing Alzolay because he has some of the most extreme splits in baseball. When he’s facing a lefty, he gets destroyed for a .410 wOBA, 4.92 xFIP, a ghastly 7.88 FIP, and just a 20.2% K rate. In contrast, righties have a 28.5% K rate, a 3.05 xFIP, the wOBA is down at .235, the fly-ball rate drops to 29.4%, and the hard-hit rate drops to 22.5%. It’s hard to stress just how much a difference the lineup can make for him. The Miami lineup projects to have six righties and the pitcher spot, not to mention pitching in Miami can be a big upgrade over pitching in Wrigley. He’s leaned on his slider all year and it has a 36.4% whiff rate, the best of any pitch and it has racked up 66 strikeouts. The Marlins are 19th against that pitch and as long as it’s righty-heavy as we expect, Alzolay is well in play. 

Jesus Luzardo 

This one will make Ghost happy but we have to stress this is wildly risky and more matchup-based as opposed to what Luzardo has put on paper this year. Perhaps this isn’t totally fair because the sample is only 80 PA since the deadline, the third-fewest in that time. However, it’s hard to ignore the appalling 32.5% K rate Chicago has in that span. We’re also talking about an offense that sits in the bottom 10 in our offensive categories BUT we have to talk about Luzardo himself. He does have some regression in a positive way that should be coming for him with a 4.87 xFIP compared to a 7.36 ERA. His 40.6% fly-ball rate could be helped by pitching in Miami (although Oakland wasn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise for him) but what’s surprising is the 13.4% swinging-strike rate. It’s kind of hard to pinpoint why that hasn’t translated for him yet as many of his numbers seem in line with his career. One aspect we can hang our hat on (hopefully) is the curve has been Luzardo’s best pitch with a .225 wOBA, 24 strikeouts, and a 54.5% whiff rate. If you take away the hitters the Cubs are now missing, they are dead last against the curve. If Luzardo turns into chalk, I probably bail on him (especially in GPP) but we’ll see what the field does. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 Honorable Mention 

Julio Urias – It’s a boom or bust spot in my eyes as the Mets do strike out a little bit against lefties at 24.6% and Urias is at a 26.4% rate himself. The Mets are 16th in wRC+ and Urias has been a bit tricky to get right. The edge for Urias could come from his curveball, which only has given up a .186 wOBA and has 57 strikeouts. New York sits 28th against that pitch but he’s kind of in no man’s land between Wheeler and Ray. 

Charlie Morton – As I mentioned in the Flaherty blurb, I would be fairly surprised if Morton isn’t chalky. I get it and in cash, it will likely be best just to plug him in. I’m not sure how much longer Washington can keep this up but since the deadline, they have only whiffed 19.1% of the time and are 16th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 15th in wOBA, and 11th in OBP. Morton is sitting just under a 28% K rate with a 47.3% ground ball rate so there is certainly reason to play him, just keep in mind the Nationals have been pesky. 

Josiah Gray – The K upside is practically oozing from Gray in his early work at 32.1% but he’s a mixed bag past that. The FIP is over 6.00 but the xFIP is reasonable at 4.35. I worry about the Braves seeing him twice in a row and the fly-ball rate of 59.5% is massive, to say the least. I just don’t feel like this is a risk I need to take with the size of the slate and the other options. 

Tyler Mahle – I can’t say I’m the largest fan, but I also cannot figure out how he was priced at $9,800, scores 32 DK, and hen plummets to $7,100. That is ridiculous and Mahle sports a 28.4% K rate on the season with a 12.1% swinging-strike rate. Some may look at Male on the road and see the 2.04 ERA and try and pounce, but the xFIP is 4.01 on the road compared to 3.53 at home. What could conceivably help Mahle is four projected lefties for Philly, as Mahle has a 32.1% K rate and a .244 wOBA against that side of the plate. The issues could come from a .373 wOBA against righties so this could be sort of a trap-style price. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 Stacks 

I’m almost concerned with the Brewers shellacking the Cubs these past two games and I hope they have some runs left in the bats. The Buccos send Mitch Keller to the mound and he has yet to show he’s a major league-level pitcher, in honesty. The Pirates bullpen is bottom 10 in xFIP and FIP on top of that but Keller is sitting on his fastball around 55% of the time. Both sides of the plate are at a .388 wOBA or above against Keller so we can fire off with abandon. 

We can really only afford one of the highest-priced bats in my eyes and I’ll side with Eduardo Escobar over Christian Yelich. Escobar has been scorching hot as a Brewer, along with Willy Adames and those two are my bedrock. They both have a wOBA over .400 with Milwaukee and an ISO over .275 (granted, Escobar is 36 PA). They both rate nicely against righty fastballs as well with ISO’s over .245. Omar Narvaez is over a .370 wOBA and all three of these hitters have K rates under 23%. Luis Urias and Kolten Wong are also in play, with a slight lean towards Urias for me at a slightly cheaper salary and a higher wOBA. 

I’m also going to look to utilize a two-man stack from Arizona in Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly. In limited action, these two have destroyed lefties with at least a .466 wOBA and a .269 ISO with K rates under 15%. I’m not buying Blake Snell’s monster start last time as anything other than an outlier and his fastball has given up a 47% hard-hit rate, a .237 ISO, and a 308-foot average distance. Both those players have ISO’s over .225 against that pitch and we’ll only need 2-3 more hitters to fill out the lineup. 

• Red Sox against Spenser Watkins 
• Rays against Michael Pineda
• Cleveland against Tyler Alexander 
• Padres against Madison Bumgarner 
• Tigers against Zach Plesac (deep GPP)

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12

It’s Thursday and that means we have a split slate day once again but today, most of the action is in the afternoon as opposed to the evening. We have an eight-game slate in the afternoon and then two separate three-game slates the rest of the way. MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 will be focused on the bulk of the action in the afternoon on the eight-game slate and at first glance, we have our work cut out for us on this particular slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 – Main Targets 

Brandon Woodruff 

It’s a day that ends in Y so we are back to targeting the Cubs lineup with an excellent pitcher. Woodruff doesn’t have the same style of strikeout upside on paper as Corbin Burnes did last night but 30.1% is not anything to sneer at. The ERA/FIP/xFIP are all under 3.00, the walk rate is just 6.2%, and the hard-hit rate is 25.5%. Even the swinging-strike rate is excellent at 12.4% and it’s hard to pick at anything Woodruff has put on paper this season. The wOBA to each side of the plate is under .255 and the K rate is almost exactly the same to each side as well. Since the deadline, the Cubs are 22nd or worse in OPS, slugging, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out 31% of the time. He deserves to be heavy chalk. 

Tanner Houck 

The big righty for the Sox has looked pretty at home in the majors so far this season in his 25.2 IP. He’s racked up a 2.29 xFIP, 1.69 FIP, and a 34.3% K rate to go with a 1.13 WHIP (on a .344 BABIP). The hard-hit rate is a bit higher than I would like at 37.1% but the ground ball rate helps mitigate that at 48.3%. His swinging-strike rate of 12.3% is very solid to say the list and his slider has racked up a 42.1% whiff rate and a .204 wOBA with 17 strikeouts so far. Tampa is just 19th against the slider and Houck has held the left side of the plate to a .218 wOBA. That’s important because the Rays are projected to have seven lefties in the lineup. Houck has some upside here at the salary and I will be interested since Tampa is fourth in K rate against righties at 25.5%. 

Marco Gonzales 

This pitcher is almost never in this article and it takes a special spot to make it happen. If he wasn’t facing the Texas Rangers, I wouldn’t even be looking at him but this is one of the only offenses that Gonzales should be able to handle on paper. Since the deadline and the departure of Joey Gallo, Texas does only whiff 21.7% of the time. However, they are dead last in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and average in that time frame as well. Gonzales does have a whiff rate over 25% on his change and curve, which isn’t the worst mark possible. The K rate is passable for this salary range at 19.1% but we’re really just hoping for six strong innings with 3-4 strikeouts. It’s a large concern that Gonzales has a .401 wOBA against righties since he likely faces seven today, but the quality of those righties is highly questionable. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 Honorable Mention

Chris Bassitt – I severely doubt that I’ll spend on Woodruff and Bassitt together, so he’s just in Honorable Mention but Bassitt has been outstanding this season. He is just hair worse to the right side at a .284 wOBA but the xFIP is better at 3.64 and the HR/9 drops to just 0.49. 

Mitch White – I want to see what the Philly lineup looks like before deciding. He’s gotten beat up by lefties with a .352 wOBA (but does have a 27.7% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP against that side) but has held righties to a .248 wOBA (along with a 4.95 xFIP). The options are short tonight so let’s see what hand White gets dealt. 

Wade LeBlanc – He’s kind of an even worse version of Gonzales with only a 13.2% K rate and a 5.59 xFIP. Since my goal is just finding an SP2 to pair with Woodruff, I’m not likely to go here. The Pirates are a putrid offense especially lately and are bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 Stacks 

The Orioles let us down last night but I’m heading right back to the well because they face Matt Manning of the Tigers and he has massively struggled so far with an 11.9% K rate, a 5.35 xFIP, a 36.1% hard-hit rate, and just a 7% swinging-strike rate. He’s also giving up a .405 wOBA with a 1.80 WHIP to righties, which should be the majority of the Orioles lineup. Now I’m still starting with Cedric Mullins because Manning throws his fastball at least 38% of the time and Mullins has a .231 ISO against that pitch with a .399 wOBA overall and only an 18.4% K rate. I’m also looking toward Trey Mancini (.325 ISO against righty fastballs), Austin Hays (.218 ISO), and Anthony Santander. I’m not particularly excited for the rest of this Orioles lineup so we can find other paths. 

The other path I’m looking for is Seattle lefties against Mike Foltynewicz. He’s getting rocked by lefties with a .398 wOBA, 6.02 xFIP, and a 6.97 FIP with just a 13.9% K rate. The hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate are over 42% and Kyle Seager and Abraham Toro stand out here. Both are over a .205 ISO against righty pitching and Toro has a .458 wOBA in his 34 PA with the Mariners. Jarred Kelenic is starting to hit a little bit better at the major league level and he’s actually done some damage against the fastball with a .259 ISO against it. Foltynewicz throws that pitch to lefties about 30% and we can use the cheap hitters to utilize whatever pitching we’d like. 

• Dodgers against Ranger Suarez
• Nationals big-name hitters against Trevor Williams
• Mets against Erick Fedde
• Boston against Rays bullpen day 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11

Wednesday brings us a large 11 game slate in the evening with a four-game slate in the afternoon. Since the field dictates our path in the small slate, we’ll chat about that one in the Discord tomorrow. The focus for MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 is going to be on the 11 game slate in the evening so let’s get right to work and set our foundation to cash! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

I’ve been fairly hesitant with Burnes lately but that pattern will likely stop this evening since he faces the Cubs depleted lineup. Since the deadline, they are striking out over 27% of the time against righties and Burnes still features a 35% K rate on the season and has been over 29% in every full month this year. Both sides of the plate are under a .255 wOBA and a 2.50 xFIP with a WHIP no higher than 1.06. The ground ball rate remains over 50% and the hard-hit rate is only 24.1%. It’s one thing to be cautious against good offenses but Chicago does not qualify. With a swinging-strike rate of 15.9% and sitting 17th against the cutter without their traded hitters, Burnes has factors lining up for a ceiling game tonight. 

Kevin Gausman 

When you have the best splitter in baseball by a significant margin, you’re typically going to make it into the Rotation. Gausman has had bouts of inconsistency lately but he did just get this D-Backs offense for almost 30 DK points in his last start, stringing out eight. Even in July when the ERA jumped to 5.11, the K rate stayed strong at 30.3% and the xFIP was only 3.90. Arizona will likely load up with lefty hitters but Gausman still has a 29.1% K rate against that side and even though the wOBA is worse at .280, the xFIP is only 3.54 and that’s not that scary. It’s also encouraging that he throws the splitter evenly to both sides of the plate, keeping intact his best weapon regardless of the opposing lineup. The splitter has a .139 wOBA and has only allowed 21 hits on the year compared to 103 strikeouts. Every pitch aside from his four-seam has a whiff rate over 40% and Arizona is 24th against the fastball, a huge checkmark for Gausman in this spot. 

Frankie Montas 

Speaking of splitters, Montas is no stranger to throwing a lethal one, and he sits at a 53.2% whiff rate, .172 wOBA, and has 60 strikeouts. Something has clicked since the start of July with a K rate above 31.5% and an xFIP of just 3.12. Even in this last start, the xFIP was just 1.39 and we have seen upside from Montas a whole lot lately. The largest caveat to this spot and the likeliest path to failure is Cleveland is projected to be righty-heavy with seven in the lineup. Montas isn’t using the splitter against righties with just 112 of his total 444 splitters being thrown to righties. Knowing that it’s not a surprise that he’s worse against righties with a 4.06 xFIP, .320 wOBA, and just a 21.7% K rate. I don’t want to totally skip him, but the splitter usage is a large red flag for his upside chances tonight. 

Merrill Kelly

I find myself liking Kelly more than I maybe should, but the projected lineup for the Giants lines up exceptionally well for his splits. They could play 5-6 lefties in addition to the pitcher spot and while the K rate is just 18.1%, the Giants whiff over 25.5% of the time against righty pitching. Kelly has held lefties to just a .254 wOBA to go along with a 1.06 WHIP and just a 33.5% fly-ball rate. The shift into San Fran should help that facet as well and his pitch mix gives us an insight on why Kelly has been better against the left side. His sinker is giving up a .300 wOBA but he mostly ditches that pitch against lefties and shifts more towards the curve/change/cutter mix. Those three pitches all feature a wOBA under .295, have combined for 67 strikeouts, and the change/curve has a whiff rate over 26.5%. He’s not a comfortable pick but he did score 23 DK against the Giants in his last start. Unless we get some news or a very poor lineup to attack, this slate seems like one we have to spend up on pitching to make things work for us. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 Honorable Mention 

Adam Wainwright – I strongly dislike the salary but I can very easily see the Pirates scuffling mightily against Waino in this spot. They are 23rd against the curve and still dead last against the fastball, a big plus for Wainwright. It also helps that since the trade deadline, Pittsburgh has whiffed over 25% of the time which is a very large jump over the seasonal rate. I will not argue if you choose this route. 

Alek Manoah – One of the largest keys to his success so far has been his slider and the Angels rank as the best team against that pitch this season. The main reason I still have him in play is that he’s been lethal against righty hitters so far with a .202 wOBA and a 0.64 WHIP. The xFIP of 4.43 tells us there has been some luck involved for sure which is why he’s not one of my favorite targets. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 Stacks 

The last thing pitcher Wil Crowe wants to see is a righty-heavy lineup since he’s given up a .413 wOBA, 2.93 HR/9, 6.77 FIP, and a 1.75 WHIP against that side of the plate. Granted, he’s not exactly shutting down lefties either with a .324 wOBA and a 5.23 xFIP.He uses his fastball around 40% of the time and it gets killed for a .498 wOBA, .396 ISO, and a 330-foot average distance. If Tyler O’Neill is back in the lineup, he is my favorite hitter in the stack with a .236 ISO against righties and a .407 wOBA against the fastball. Even if not, we can spend on pitching and still afford Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Harrison Bader. They all have an ISO over .210 against righty fastballs and are all over a .330 wOBA against righties in general. Bader is especially valuable at $2,400 and cheaper hitters like Paul DeJong and Dylan Carlson are in play as well, just not primary targets. 

I also want to get some exposure to the Milwaukee offense, but they are expensive. For me, I’m looking to go right up the middle of the diamond with Kolten Wong and Willy Adames. The latter is one cheap way to get into this offense and sits over a .315 wOBA against righties while Adames has a .446 wOBA against the sinker, which is the main pitch for Jake Arrieta. He’s getting mashed by either side of the plate with over a .380 wOBA allowed. 

• Blue Jays against Dylan Bundy 
• Orioles against Tarik Skubal 
• Phillies against David Price

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10

We have a normal sprawling slate for Tuesday but the bad news is the pitching selection is just not all that great. The lone bona fide ace in Max Scherzer and he’s sure to be very chalky, but the options past that is pretty scattered. We have some work to do to find our pitchers in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 so let’s get moving to set our foundation for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 – Main Targets 

Max Scherzer 

Much like last night, I’m not going to spend the most time here because Mad Max is in a tier of his own by a long shot tonight. Philly does only strike out 23% of the time but Houston is only at 20% and it didn’t matter to Scherzer last time out as he racked up 10 strikeouts. Mad Max could be re-energized in a playoff chase and that’s bad news for offenses considering he has a 34.5% K rate and a 16% swinging-strike rate. The 0.89 WHIP would be the best mark Scherzer has ever put up in his career and neither side of the plate is above a .270 wOBA. The Philly lineup projects to be balanced with four lefties and four righties and as far as cash goes, Scherzer is locked in. Even in GPP, it’s hard to see on the surface the pitcher that can match his upside. 

Note – A lot of the high-priced pitchers are either severely overpriced or in bad spots, meaning I’m likely to go bargain hunting. Aaron Nola, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray are up against difficult offenses and then Logan Gilbert and Ross Stripling are priced out of play. All of these pitchers have flashed upside but are far too unstable to be paying what DK is asking.

Eduardo Rodriguez 

Tampa has been hot lately against lefties but generally this season they have been a liability, flirting with bottom-five marks in all of our offensive categories. They are also still hovering around 24% for the K rate so they can be had in that regard. E-Rod catches my eye for GPP because he’s been one of the unluckier pitchers this season. He’s sporting an ugly 5.22 ERA but the xFIP is 3.30 to go with a K rate of 28.9% and a hard-hit rate of just 28%. The 11.9% swinging-strike rate is in line with every other season, so it’s fairly easy to believe the ERA is bloated when considering his metrics. The HR/9 is 1.07 to the right side of the plate along with a 3.29 xFIP and he’s projected to face five of them. If he does face four lefties, the K rate jumps up to over 30%. His main two pitches are over a 29.5% whiff rate and the range of outcomes is wide, so we’re only talking GPP here. 

Carlos Carrasco 

It should tell you a lot that Carrasco is in the mix since he’s not even hit 65 pitches in either start yet (but should continue to build up). He’s put some solid metrics on paper through the first 8.1 IP on the year with a 26.5% K rate, 50% ground ball rate, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 3.00. The swinging-strike rate really catches your eye at 16.7% even in a small sample size. Carrasco has been mixing up his pitches but they all have a whiff rate over 23.5% and the slider has been especially good with a .152 wOBA and 40.9% whiff rate. The salary is still high since his pitch limit will likely be around 75 at most, so I would still be cautious. 

Casey Mize 

Anytime the Orioles face a righty pitcher, I’m at least taking a look. Mize does appear to be on a soft pitch count for the rebuilding Tigers in that 85 or so pitches is likely the most we get. Mize is not a strikeout artist at this juncture of his career at only 19.2% but the WHIP is down to 1.13 from 1.48 in 2020 and he’s generating a 50% ground ball rate. I don’t believe it to be a coincidence that Mize just scored over 19 DK points against this Baltimore offense since he’s holding the right side of the plate to a .284 wOBA, 0.86 HR/9, and a 25.7% hard-hit rate. A large part of those numbers appears to come from the slider, which is easily his primary pitch to the right side. He’s thrown it to righties 342 times out of 484 on the season and it has only given up a .243 wOBA with a .30.5% whiff rate. The Orioles are top 12 in K rate against righty pitching and sit in the bottom-five in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. He’s one of the better bargains on the evening. 

Starting Rotation Special 

It’s been a hot minute since we had a special (I guess we could have made Austin Gomber that man Saturday but I digress) and this one is a BIG RISK. This player has thrown exactly 0.2 IP in the majors and he got totally wrecked with here walks, zero strikeouts, and seven runs allowed. That start came against this same team but that worries me very little. He’s a lefty and down in AAA this season, he’s shown a K rate of 36% and a 2.28 xFIP throughout 62.1 IP. The swinging-strike rate is 17% in AAA so the strikeout stuff is legitimate. Part of the issue in that first start was he threw his sinker 82% of the time, far too much. Since the Trade Deadline, the offense he’s facing has whiffed 36.8% of the time and is 25th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, slugging, and OPS. Aaron Ashby gets his second shot in the majors and gets to start the second game of a doubleheader against the Cubs and $4,400 is interesting to me with a legitimate strikeout pitching prospect. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 Honorable Mention

Sean Manaea – I really am not a fan of the salary and he should face seven righties, which only whiff 23.8% of the time and have a 3.75 xFIP. Cleveland isn’t great against fastballs at 19th and Manaea throws the sinker right around 50% of the time but he just feels very, very pricey. 

Zac Gallen – He’s been very difficult to get right this year and in fairness, has been dealing with injuries the whole time. He has a K rate approaching 29% which is massive for this low of a price tag but does have a wOBA over .330 against lefties. He’s projected to see six in the Giants lineup and his K rate drops to 21.9%. I feel like he’s very talented for his salary, but the spot really does him no favors. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 Stacks 

With such a big slate, I’m more inclined to use mini-stacks from teams I love and I’ll be highlighting three separate two-man stacks that I really like. The first place we go is right back to the White Sox, as the Twins are sending Griffin Jax to the mound. Chicago is getting very healthy and Jax has been smashed by righty hitters with a 6.27 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and a .384 wOBA. His four-seam has been smacked around with a .327 wOBA and Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are both vastly underpriced. They should be more towards $5,000 and until the price corrects itself, they are in against poor pitching. Both hitters are in the positives against the fastball in FanGraphs rating despite the very small sample this season. 

J.A. Happ is on the mound again and righties have nearly a .400 wOBA and a 5.50 xFIP against him. Hoy Park has been leading off some nights and has hit well in his limited action so far at a .353 wOBA and .819 OPS. He’s been hitting in AAA and is a great value considering his flexibility, and we can put him at shortstop so we have an outfield spot for Bryan Reynolds. Happ has seen his four-seam rack up a .409 wOBA and 14 home runs given up. Not only does Reynolds smash lefties with a .403 wOBA and a .217 ISO, but he also ranks as the ninth-best fastball hitter for FanGraphs.He’s hit a fastball for 13 of his 19 home runs with a .444 wOBA. I love the idea of using the cheaper Buccos to make pitching and bigger name hitters work tonight. 

You can consider larger stacks of the first two teams and this team as well, but my main two targets for my Detroit stack are Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario. Keegan Akin is starting for the Orioles and his wOBA is over .380 against both sides of the plate while righties only have a 16.1% K rate and a 5.40 xFIP. Akin has seen every pitch rack up a .360 wOBA or higher and his fastball is used almost 58% of the time. Candelario and Schoop are two of the top four hitters against that pitch and are over a .340 wOBA. Schoop and Eric Haase are over a .435 wOBA and .263 ISO but Haase is very expensive for a catcher. 

• Reds against Drew Smyly 
• A’s against Triston McKenzie 
• Red Sox lefties against Luis Patino 
• Yankees against Daniel Lynch 
• The Jays/Angels game and Brewers/Cubs game are not included since it’s only a seven-inning game for those games

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.9

MLB has only scheduled five games for this Monday evening, which is a bit of a surprise. The chalk is going to be heavy on this pitching slate and some of that chalk is going to be hard to argue against. Let’s discuss that and more, including where we can find our edge in the Starting Rotation 8.9 to find green screens again!

Starting Rotation 8.9 – Main Targets 

Freddy Peralta 

We’re honestly not going to spend a ton of time here since Peralta is likely going to push 70% in GPP settings and he is an inarguable must in cash game settings. Peralta sits eighth in swinging-strike rate at 14.2% and is tied for second in K rate at 34.5%. Workload concerns have been a bit overblown from Milwaukee, as he threw 98 pitches in the last start. In the previous start, he was pulled at 68 pitches because the Brewers were beating up the Buccos by 6+ runs. It’s a small sample, but the Cubs are striking out at a 26.8% rate since the Trade Deadline and we saw both Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon eclipse double-digit strikeouts the past two games. Peralta has statistically been the superior strikeout pitcher this year and he’s a stone-cold lock. I’ll lose with him before I fade him tonight. 

Luis Castillo 

We could take the Double Ace Tulloch Special approach on this slate (and would require a cheap offense to pull it off) as Castillo continues his resurgence. He’s only been below 16 DK points once in the past 10 starts and six have been over 22. After his disaster first couple months, the ERA over the next 75.1 IP has not been over 2.15, the wOBA has not been over .272, and the K rate has been over 25%. He’s producing like the ace he is and his price has finally caught up, which is why Peralta will carry all the popularity. 

The Cleveland lineup is projected to only have three lefties, which would help Castillo. That has been the worse side of the plate for him with a .330 wOBA, 4.57 xFIP, and a 14% walk rate. What also helps Castillo is the Cleveland offense is 23rd against the changeup, which has been the most-thrown pitch for the righty. The change has generated a 30.5% whiff rate, a .287 wOBA, and has 50 strikeouts on the season. What’s really interesting is if Castillo draws a righty-heavy lineup, that actually forces his slider into play far more. Cleveland is 14th against it but rates as a -9.1 for FanGraphs. His slider also has the best whiff rate at 42.3% and the lowest wOBA at .201. His sinker and slider are the most-used pitches to righties, which opens a different avenue for Castillo in this spot. 

Joe Musgrove 

We’ve not been playing Big Joe lately, and past the start against the Rockies it hasn’t burned us in the least. However, this lines up well for him and we can’t ignore him tonight. Miami is coming out of Coors Field on their West Coast swing and we know that offenses coming out of Denver tend to struggle in their first game after that series. Musgrove has used the slider/curve mix about 50% of the time and those pitches are going to look even harder to hit after Coors. 

Both pitches are over a 35% whiff rate and the wOBA is not higher than .215 for either. Musgrove’s fastball-style pitches have been the ones that have hurt him, with wOBA’s over .370. Miami sits 29th against fastballs and 16th against cutters. The other good news for Musgrove is he’s only projected to face two lefties. He’s held righties to a .234 wOBA, a 26.4% K rate, and a 0.89 WHIP. Interestingly, his xFIP is higher against righties but the Marlins and their 28th ranked ISO can make that matter. We could see Musgrove as the chalky pairing with Peralta. 

Jameson Taillon 

Someone has to explain to me how Taillon goes from $10,200 and scoring 27.3 DK points down to $7,800 because that’s absolutely ridiculous. His FIP has been under 3.35 in the past four starts and owns a healthy 24.1% K rate on the season. He’s been using the four-seam a bit more lately and things have just started to come together for him in the past 30 or so days. His July ERA was 1.16 and the wOBA has gone under .250 in that period, along with a FIP under 3.50. 

Jamo has been better against righties and there should be five in the lineup for him to face tonight. They whiff at a 24.9% rate and the xFIP for the season is barely over 4.00. Not only are the Royals 25th against the fastball, but they are also 19th against the slider and 17th against the curve. Every pitch for Taillon has at least a 20.4% whiff rate and the pitch data suggests a great spot for him. Perhaps Jamo drops back down to the 4-6 strikeout range after 10 in his last start. That’s fine considering the price and he could be an interesting pivot from a possibly chalky Musgrove. 

Starting Rotation 8.9 Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – I’m about done trying to get him right but maybe that means he’s going to score 25+ DK points tonight. July saw his xFIP climb to over 4.00 and the K rate was right about 25%. The issue with Giolito is the fact that the metrics always look solid and then he doesn’t actually pitch well. The inconsistency has been maddening. His four-seam is giving up a .333 wOBA compared to .260 in 2020 and the Twins are second against fastball this season. 

Carlos Hernandez – The young righty for the Royals has scored over 20 DK points in the past two starts and his xFIP from those games is under 4.50. The other metrics like hard-hit rate are a mixed bag and he’s been worse against righties, a concern with the Yankee lineup. His curve and slider have both generated a 38.2% whiff rate or higher to go with 21 combined strikeouts. He’s only using them a combined 36% of the time so it’s risky, but he’s about as low as you can go in salary tonight. 

Starting Rotation 8.9 Stacks 

It should shape up to be a long night for the Twins pitching, as they plan to use Beau Burrows as an opener, followed by lefty Charlie Barnes as the primary pitcher. That works for me because we love White Sox against lefties with a focus on Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn. Barnes has only pitched against a total of 32 righties with a .338 wOBA and a K rate under 10%. Vaughn and Abreu have hammered lefties so far with a wOBA of at least .370 and an ISO over .300 for each. Jimenez only has 13 (admittedly putrid) PA against lefties so far but is coming off a double-dong game last night and he had a .267 ISO last season. Barnes is giving up a 46.4% hard-hit rate against righties and I’m very interested in the White Sox. 

The secondary portion is a bit of a split. Cleveland is using a bullpen game tonight with Sam Hentges “starting”. As long as Nicholas Castellanos is $4,000 on DK, he will be in my lineup without any question. The full lineup is in play although the matchup is impossible to break down on a hitter-by-hitter basis. 

The other players I will consider using one or two of actually come from the Twins side of things. Listen, we know that Giolito has the potential to shove any start but he also has the potential to get blasted. The top fastball hitters on the team are Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez. I’m not using all of them together but the latter three all have a wOBA over .350 and everyone has an ISO over .202 except for Arraez. Giolito is worse against righties in part because he uses the changeup more to lefties. Garver is my favorite of the bunch, followed by Polanco, Arraez, and Sano last because it’s hard not to go Abreu in a White Sox stack. 

• Padres against Zach Thompson
• Brewers against Alec Mills 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!