MLB DFS Pitching

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31

We have almost every team available to us tonight with 28 pitchers we can choose from! While that part is fun, there is simply not a lot of actual good options to choose from after the higher end tonight. Let’s dive in and see if we can find any sort of gems in the lower tier in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

We’re at the point where I practically do not care what the matchup is Walker Buehler, he’s going to be in play. He’s up to eight out of 10 starts scoring at least 26 DK points and some of those have come against the Astros, Padres, Giants, and at Coors Field. His four-seam leads the pack with 76 strikeouts but the slider/curve combo has combined for 71 as well. The secondary pitches both have a whiff rate over 32% and Buehler is down to a 2.02 ERA. Atlanta is a dangerous offense but they also strikeout over 24% of the time on the season and it’s still at 23.7% since the start of July. Atlanta’s offense also sets up well for his splits since they should only have three lefties. Buehler has been better against the right side of the plate with a .225 wOBA and a K rate over 28%. 

If we’re paying up for another pitcher, Brandon Woodruff is going to be tempting. His K rate goes up to 31.1% against the left side of the plate to go along with a 2.97 xFIP, a .218 wOBA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 25.3% hard-hit rate. San Francisco is slated to play six lefties and the pitcher’s spot, pitch-perfect for Woodruff. One of the reasons for those splits could be the curve/changeup mix he utilizes more against lefties. The curve allows the lowest wOBA at .145 and the change has the highest whiff rate at 39.4%. Those pitches make up about 35% of his mix against lefties and with the park upgrade, Woodruff makes a lot of sense, especially at $9,400. 

Honorable Mention 

Lance McCullers – To my eyes, he’s just never consistent enough to be worth paying more than some of our other options. Sure, in GPP you can talk me into it because he has a similar upside as others in this tier. He has a 27.8% K rate and we know the Mariners have been a source of whiffs all year long. McCullers also has a .328 wOBA against lefties with a FIP/xFIP combo both over 4.00. The metrics just point us elsewhere. 

The Mid-Range 

Lucas Giolito has spent most of the season priced in the Ace Tier and has caused plenty of heartburn. I suspect him to be the chalk of the slate and the Pirates offense has been next-level poor, so count me in. They are striking out over 25% of the time lately and rank dead last against the fastball, which has been the trouble pitch for Giolito. That’s allowed a .326 wOBA while the changeup has 86 strikeouts. This is just a perfect spot for him (which sort of scares me in honesty) but I’m happy to eat the chalk. He scored 19.9 DK in the earlier matchup with the Pirates and the offense has gotten worse since then. Giolito has recorded a wOBA under .295 since the start of July and the K rate has been over 25%. That’s more than enough under $9,000. 

Now things start to get rough because the options fall off a cliff. Let’s just run through a quick list of options and why I’m not looking that way, shall we? 

Charlie Morton – Not against the Dodgers. 

Hyun Jin Ryu – Baltimore is far more dangerous against lefties and Ryu’s K rate is down by a good bit. 

Zach Plesac – He’s scored over 15.9 DK once in the past 10 and has a 16.2% K rate. The lone good start came against the Tigers, so grain of salt. 

Yusei Kikuchi – Houston has scuffled against lefties but they have hit Kikuchi well every time this year. 

Blake Snell – On the road and he threw 122 pitches last time out. 

So….not exactly loaded here with options. I suppose Austin Gomber is in play though I think he’s pricey for his skill set. The K rate is 23.9% but he’s also gotten obliterated outside of Coors Field across 63.2 IP with an ERA over 6.00. You can argue that the xFIP is only .386 and the .309 BABIP is way out of line, and that would be fair. Texas has been so putrid but they aren’t striking out. They have the eighth-lowest K rate since the deadline despite being in the bottom 10 of every other category. I think I’m likely to go with Giolito and an ace or possibly take the gamble on this next pitcher. 

Punt Range 

This is a wild play because since the deadline and the acquisition of Starling Marte, Oakland is only striking out 15% of the time against lefty pitching. That’s the best in the majors but they are still 18th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 16th in wOBA, and 13th in wRC+. Tarik Skubal has a 30% K rate in August to go with a 2.95 xFIP and a .263 wOBA. He’ll use his slider and change since Oakland will be loaded with righty hitters and those pitches have 64 combined strikeouts. They also allow wOBA’s under .245 and boast whiff rates over 31%, especially the change at 47.1%. The salary doesn’t match the upside and Oakland isn’t exactly terrifying against lefty pitching. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31 Stacks 

Note – The Giants picked up Jose Quintana, and if he’s the confirmed starter I will be interested in Milwaukee, although the park is not that great for offense. 

I’m fine taking a stab at Skubal tonight because I need some Blue Jays against lefty Keegan Akin. He has a FIP/xFIP combo of 5.32/552 and a wOBA over .380 against righty hitters and he’s going to see an awful lot of them. His fastball is being thrown almost 57% of the time against righties and the top five in the order (George Springer, Marcus Semien, Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez) all have ISO’s over .230 except for Bichette and wOBA’s over .350. All of them are also over a .340 wOBA on the season and even Alejandro Kirk is sitting over a .400 wOBA in 40 PA. Hernandez leads the squad with an ISO of .366 and my main three are he, Vlad, and Springer. If we have room for Semien or Bichette, all the better. 

We’re heading to Minnesota next since they’re taking on Zach Davies and he’s struggled through the season. The xFIP against the left side is 5.81 and the HR/9 against the right side is 1.69 while the Twins are super cheap. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Donaldson all sit over a .350 wOBA against righties and at least a .219 ISO. They all hit the fastball well and the only player that is in the negatives against the change is Buxton. Davies throws a sinker/change mix 85% of the time and the Twins fill in around the Jays nicely. 

• Yankees against Jamie Barria
• Tigers against Cole Irvin 
• Rays against Garrett Richards 
• Phillies against Patrick Corbin 
• Cleveland against Mike Minor 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29

There are 11 games on today’s slate, but that doesn’t mean very good things for pitching. The options are few and far between, and even the ones that are appealing are pricey. Let’s get rolling to find the paths we need to walk for green screens in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

I would have to say that the term “ace” is in the context of the slate only because nobody that is priced this high is a true ace. Dylan Cease makes the strongest case and I know that pitching against the Cubs the past couple of nights has decidedly not worked out. Just remember, every day is a new day. Miles Mikolas and J.A. Happ were trash against the Bucs but if we held that against Adam Wainwright, we don’t get almost 30 DK from Waino. Cease has some nasty secondary stuff with a slider/change/curve combo that all have a whiff rate over 40.5% and a wOBA under .265. His slider and curve make up about 45% of his mix and 108 total strikeouts. The fear is his four-seam isn’t that great with 11 home runs allowed and a .385 wOBA. The Cubbies are just average against the fastball, which helps. It also helps that Cease has a K rate over 30% and a FIP/xFIP combo under 4.00. Both sides of the plater are no higher than a .300 wOBA and while there is a risk, Cease has demonstrated ceiling as well with 28 and 37 DK points in two of his past 10. 

It’s not going to be risk-free with Tyler Mahle either but he has had much better results on the road and the parks don’t get much different than Cincy and Miami. His xFIP is close regardless of where he pitches but the HR/9 is massively different at 2.43 at home and just 0.34 on the road. On the surface, this looks like a poor spot for Mahle with a .366 wOBA against righty hitters but again, the home/road splits surface. The wOBA is .480 at home but just .265 on the road. The K rate is still over 25% and his fastball has 105 of his 168 strikeouts. The Marlins are 29th against the fastball this year which is a huge bonus and even though the price seems high, you can’t ignore him on this slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Jose Berrios – He’s in poor form right now but the Tigers can fix that for pitchers. It’s difficult to get past the fact that Berrios sports a .358 wOBA against the left side of the plate, even though Detroit is not a great offense overall. Berrios does have a K rate of almost 26% against that side as well, so if things go right, they could go very right. 

The Mid-Range 

He can be a frustrating experience, and I wish Boston had a longer rope with him but Tanner Houck is a pitcher I can’t quit. Through his 39.1 IP, the K rate is 31.3% and the 3.43 ERA is solid. His FIP of 1.95 and xFIP of 2.73 are even better and the BABIP of .382 certainly lead us to say he’s been unlucky in his small sample. Based on what he has shown, we want a righty-heavy lineup since Houck has whiffed that side of the plate at a massive 37.2% clip. The xFIP against each side is under 2.85 and he’s generating a ground ball rate over 42% as well. Cleveland has climbed up over 23% for their K rate and Houck is a strong pick. I do fear about the upside since he’s typically pitched under five innings per start. 

Ian Anderson is back from the IL and he’s pitched plenty on the farm so there shouldn’t be limitations in play here. This spot could turn into a really good one for Anderson. He’s been better against lefties this year at a .269 wOBA, 1.16 WHIP, and a hard-hit rate of 29.2%. The main off-speed pitch is the changeup and it’s gotten a whiff rate over 34% with a wOBA of .258. It just so happens that San Francisco is projected to have six lefties in the lineup, are 23rd against the changeup, and a strikeout over 25% against righty pitching. 

Honorable Mention 

Erick Fedde – By the metrics, this isn’t the play since Fedde has been way worse against lefties. The Mets should have at least five in the lineup but that offense has been awful since the deadline. They are 23rd or worse in every category and we’re going on a month of ineptitude. 

Punt Tier 

If you think Houck is too expensive, I’ll offer up Aaron Ashby for far cheaper. Now, he’s likely not going past four innings and the track record is way spottier but his ERA of 4.15 isn’t matched by his 2.48 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. The BABIP is .379 and he’s yet to give up a home run in his 8.2 IP. The K rate is 21.7% and Minnesota is over a 23% K rate on the season against lefties. The slider from Ashby has been outstanding with a 47.6% whiff rate and a .131 wOBA across 54 thrown. I wish he was a hair cheaper and the K rate was higher than 15.6% against righties, but there’s at least a way for him to get to 15 DK. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 Stacks

I wish it was in a different park, but the Reds face Jesus Luzardo today and I’m in. He’s getting mauled by both sides of the plate with wOBA’s over .400 and the xFIP is 5.49 and the FIP is 6.96 against righties. Luzardo’s fastball gives up a .342 ISO and a 56.9% hard-hit rate. He’s throwing it almost half the time with the Marlins and Jonathan India and Nick Castellanos feel like must-plays. India is at a .508 wOBA and .290 ISO against the pitch while Castellanos is at a .454 and .408 mark himself. They also lead the squad on the season in wOBA and they’re followed by Tyler Stephenson, Kyle Farmer, and Aristides Aquino. Now, Aquino is in a big slump and is at high risk of being pinch hit for but he’s cheap enough to take those risks. 

My next stack correlates nicely in the Washington Nationals, and we haven’t gone there too often lately. Still, Tylor Megill is getting smoked by lefty hitters with a .418 wOBA, 6.65 FIP, and a 5.40 xFIP. The fly-ball rate is terrifying at 54% and his fastball is a big culprit with a .258 ISO allowed and a 316-foot average distance. Juan Soto and Josh Bell hammer that pitch with wOBA’s over .415 and ISO’s over .330. Soto is his normal self with a .426 wOBA and a .201 ISO on the season against righty pitching while Bell and Yadiel Hernandez are both over a .300 wOBA themselves. The other bonus is none of these hitters have a higher K rate than 20%. 

• Rays against Spenser Watkins 
• Astros against Taylor Hearn 
• Diamondbacks against Ranger Suarez 
• Cardinals against Wil Crowe 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28

We have got all sorts of action today in the majors with a six-game afternoon slate and a nine-game evening slate! We’ll be covering both and the evening really has some strong pitching options on it. Let’s get to work with two slates to cover in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 and lay our foundation for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 – Afternoon 

The Frankie Montas Tier 

Montas is the only pitcher that qualifies by salary and if I’m attacking the Yankee lineup, I do much prefer to do it with righty pitching. Montas has a 26.8% K rate and that’s been thanks to his splitter for the most part. It has 69 strikeouts, a .164 wOBA, and a 53% whiff rate. He does only throw it 22% of the time but the catch is it uses it mostly against lefties. It’s no surprise that righties have the higher wOBA against him at .308 and a lower K rate of just 23.2%. I want to see the Yankee lineup. If there are four lefties as it’s projected, I’m in on pitching Montas. If they go more righty-heavy, I may back off. 

Mid-Range Tier 

I’m willing to bet a lot of popularity is focused on Alek Manoah and the duo of Vladimir Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara. We’ll kick it off with what could turn into a pitcher’s duel like it did last time when both scored over 30 DK. For some bizarre reason, Alcantara went from $9,100 all the way down to $7,700. The matchup is still relatively tough but he’s back in Miami which is a nice bonus. The changeup and slider both are over a 35% whiff rate and have combined for 96 strikeouts on the season while Cincy is 20th against the slider and eighth against the change. Alcantara is just too cheap in this spot and has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA and at home, his xFIP is just 3.32. 

Gutierrez sort of continues to defy some metrics. The xFIP of 5.08 across 93 IP is not exactly what we look for but the Marlins don’t check the boxes for teams that can make him pay. They whiff over 25% and are 27th in ISO at home against righties. Miami is also no higher than 19th in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in that split and Miami just isn’t the best hitter’s park you can find. Gutierrez has a 10.4% swinging-strike rate which is plenty respectable and the K rate of almost 19% is fine, if not spectacular for his salary. It’s more about the matchup and outside of Cincinnati, Gutierrez has a 2.92 ERA, .286 wOBA, and a scary 5.57 xFIP. He’s one of the pitchers that I’m still not totally there on the trust factor, but plenty of facets are in his favor today. 

Manoah is another pitcher that is really a mixed bag and you have to understand the risk when you play him. You can just stroll through the game logs to have that illustrated for you because they are at every outcome imaginable. The splits aren’t exactly helpful because the wOBA is higher against lefties at .339 but the xFIP is way lower at 3.60 and the K rate is 30.8%. Detroit is scheduled to have five lefties in the lineup and it’s interesting to note that the BABIP against lefties is .333, which is high. His pitch mix features three pitches with whiff rates above 26.5% and the wOBA’s are under .295. Detroit is 28th against the slider and 16th against the fastball, which is the bread and butter for Manoah. I rank these three Alcantara, Gutierrez, and Manoah but they all have some serious range of outcomes today. 

Punt Tier 

It’s definitely a risk but this spot is about as comfortable as we can ask for when looking at Carlos Hernandez. The young righty has been better against the left side of the plate with a .275 wOBA and a 26.1% K rate. His four-seam and curve are his main pitches to that side of the plate and they have 37 of 60 strikeouts. Seattle is 26th against the fastball and 12th against the curve, but the curve rating is just 1.5 as a team. The Mariners are projected to have six lefties in the lineup today and carry the third-highest K rate against righty pitching at 25.7%. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 Stacks – Early 

Some may look at the Blue Jays lately and roll right on past, especially since bulk reliever Tyler Alexander just shut them down. In that start, his xFIP was over 4.50, the hard-hit rate was over 35%, and the fly-ball rate was over 41%. The cutter is his most-thrown pitch and Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette especially smash that pitch with ISO’s over .305. That trio is led in the seasonal ranks by Hernandez with a .381 ISO and a .476 wOBA while Bichette and Semien are over a .350 wOBA. You can always kick in Vlad Guerrero, even though he’s had a pretty tough month (for once). 

One of the reasons I think I might fade Vlad is we can go the ultimate GPP play in an A’s stack with Matt Olson. He leads the team in ISO at .343 and wOBA at .408 this year and lefty Nestor Cortes is using his fastball 50% against lefties and 40% against righties. Olson mashes the lefty fastball for a .393 ISO and Cortes allows a 40% hard-hit rate with a 312-foot average distance. We can then turn to Starling Marte and Mark Canha, both of whom sit over a .335 wOBA and .175 ISO on the year. 

• Phillies against Humberto Mejia
• Cleveland/Red Sox game stack 
• Royals against Tyler Anderson 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 – Evening 

Ace Tier 

To the surprise of nobody, my first choice here is Lance Lynn going against the Cubs and their massive strikeout rate. Since the deadline, the K rate as a team is 29% and that is the highest in the league against righty pitching. Lynn himself sits at a 27.2% rate and an 11.7% swinging-strike rate on the season. While the Cubs pick up a DH in the AL park, I’m not exceptionally worried since they struggle to field eight hitters. After all, they rank in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ since the deadline as well. Lynn should get five righties in the lineup which is in his wheelhouse since he whiffs the right side of the plate 30.8% of the time and has a .220 wOBA. 

We’re also continuing to attack my Buccos because Adam Wainwright has owned Pittsburgh this year. He’s pitched against them three times and totaled 23 IP, 24 Ks, eight hits, one walk, and one earned run on a solo bomb. That is utter domination and Pittsburgh ranking 29th against the curve and 30th against the fastball certainly helps Waino. The Bucs have had a K rate over 25% since the deadline and I fully believe Waino should be worth every cent of his salary. I mean, he’s scored 27, 42, and 38 DK points in those three starts and the offense hasn’t gotten any better. 

Framber Valdez is a tier down from the first two pitchers on this slate in part because he’s sporting a K rate of 22.1% and the Texas lineup doesn’t strike out much. Since the deadline, they are only at an 18.8% rate despite being in the bottom six in all of our other categories. Valdez can counteract the sixth-highest fly-ball rate from Texas since he has a 69.3% ground ball rate. His curve and changeup are over 30% in whiff rate each but all of his pitches except the curve are over a .300 wOBA. Valdez should face eight righties and that is the tougher side of the plate. The K rate drops to 20.5% and the wOBA is .290. You’d be playing him for seven strong innings as opposed to any tangible strikeout upside, leaving him out of play in my eyes as the most expensive pitcher on the board. 

Honorable Mention 

Logan Webb is in this pricing tier as well and he has been outstanding with a 26.4% K rate and a 2.84 xFIP. When he’s not striking hitters out, he’s generating a ground ball rate of 61.8%. Realistically, the only reason I won’t play him is that Lynn and Waino are both under $10,000 and I can roll both of those pitchers out in great matchups. 

Mid-Tier 

Much like Gerrit Cole, it sure looked like Marcus Stroman needed to learn how to pitch again in the middle of the year without sticky stuff. The last three starts would suggest he’s figured it out with scores of at least 21.9 DK. When things are working for him, every pitch past his sinker has a whiff rate over 31% and the highest wOBA against them is .268. The swinging-strike rate has been a least 9.6% for the past five starts which is great to see. Stro has managed to keep both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA and he is certainly part of a pretty exciting pitching slate against a weaker Nationals lineup. 

One of my favorite GPP plays on the slate is none other than Luis Patino. We’ve utilized him very rarely this year and with good reason as he’s been very unstable. However, he does have his strengths and they are against righty hitting. He’s held them to a 3.72 xFIP, a 30.4% K rate, and a .267 wOBA. Baltimore should feature seven righties in their lineup and they’re hovering around a 24% K rate on the year. They are also no higher than 20th in our offensive categories and even though the park is a significant downgrade, Patino’s slider is a weapon. Baltimore is sitting at a -8.5 FanGraphs rating and his slider has a 36.8% whiff rate and a .246 wOBA. This is one of the better spots Patino could get, past where he’s pitching. With the pricing on tonight’s slate, I don’t see dropping below Patino in salary. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 Stacks – Evening 

The Twins are going to put Charlie Barnes back on the mound and that’s not likely to end well. His xFIP/FIP combo is 6.43/6.00 and his K rate is just 10.4%. Barnes also sports a 43.8% fly-ball rate with a 39.8% hard-hit rate so the Brewers hitters are very interesting to me. My main trio is going to be Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, and Luis Urias. All three of these hitters are over a .195 ISO and .335 wOBA on the year against lefties and they all hit the sinker well with a wOBA over .350. They are all very affordable on top of that and you can even top it off with Kolten Wong. He’s done well in lefty against lefty matchups with a .382 wOBA and if Barnes gets rocked, the handedness doesn’t matter as much. 

Don’t worry, I didn’t forget the Rays are in Baltimore. John Means has continued to be extremely pedestrian since coming back from injury and while I don’t want to full-stack, we can use them as secondary pieces. Mike Zunino has completely wrecked lefty pitching all year with a .509 wOBA and a .506 ISO, which is absurd. This is across 100 PAs as well so it’s not the smallest sample ever. All of him, Manuel Margot, and Randy Arozarena have a wOBA over .350 against lefty fastballs and Means is throwing that 49% of the time with a .285 ISO and 44.8% hard-hit rate. 

• Padres against Jose Suarez
• Angels against Ryan Weathers (the bulk pitcher)
• Dodgers against Jon Gray 
• White Sox against Alec Mills 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27

We have every single team in action on this slate but the pitching selection overall is not exactly the best. There are options at every level tonight which isn’t always the case so let’s dig into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 to carve our paths to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I will almost surely say that Gerrit Cole will be the highest-rostered pitcher on the slate and it’s tough to mount a strong argument against it. He may have only whiffed six in the last start but it seemed like he had almost every hitter on two strikes and just couldn’t get those putaway pitches. The fly-ball rate is 41% and pitching in Oakland is a big improvement over pitching in New York for that facet. Every pitch has a whiff rate over 28% and his four-seam/slider combo has 140 total strikeouts. Oakland is 18th against the fastball but they are second against the slider, which is worth noting. The K rate as a unit is only 23% but Cole boasts a 14.5% swinging-strike rate and an xFIP under 2.95 against each side of the plate. He shouldn’t be the second-highest in salary on this slate. 

You guys know that I love me some Shane McClanahan, but it is hard to get around to him at this highest salary on the board. Is he wildly talented with evil, overpowering stuff? He sure is. He’s also hit seven innings just once and he has yet to record more than eight strikeouts in any start in the majors. It doesn’t mean he’s incapable but you would like to feel better about paying all the way up that he could record over 30 DK points and that hasn’t happened. The lefty for the Rays has been excellent with a 3.20 xFIP and a 28.5% K rate with only a 7.8% walk rate. His 15.2% swinging-strike rate is 15.2% and would rank in the top-five in the league if he qualified, giving you an idea of how good the stuff is. They don’t worry me in a major way, but Baltimore is 11th in wRC+, 10th in ISO, and 12th in OPS against lefties. There’s just not enough upside even though I do think he pitches well. 

I’ll round things out by talking about Aaron Nola even though I’ve not gotten him right once all season. His K rate is well worth chasing at 29.3% and the 3.46 xFIP continues to tell us he’s had bad luck on the 4.33 ERA. The swinging-strike rate is 12.8% and the curve/changeup mix both have over a 35% whiff rate. Arizona is eighth against the change but 17th against the curve and Nola uses that pitch more often. Nola is slightly worse against lefties with a .305 wOBA but the K rate is also higher at 30.1% and the xFIP is almost identical against each side. 

Mid-Range 

Max Fried has been on a tear in the past seven starts, recording over 20 DK points in six of those starts. His curve/slider mix makes up about 46% of his pitches and both have a whiff rate over 33% and have 82 strikeouts. The Giants are seventh against the curve but are 23rd against the slider but the main concern is the Giants can be a tough offense against lefty pitching. They are top 12 in all of our offensive categories but looking at some of the offenses Fried has walked through, maybe he can do it again. The K rate is 23.7% and the ground ball rate is 49.2% this year, both of which are more than enough for his salary. 

This is going to feel gross and I wish he was a little cheaper, but I’m going to continue to attack the Pirates almost every night and tonight it’s J.A. Happ. It will be his third time facing the Bucs in the past four starts but the first two have generated over 21 DK points in each, 12 IP, 13 K’s, and just three earned runs. What’s interesting is since he got to St. Louis, he’s using what FanGraphs is saying is a splitter a lot more. Now, Baseball Savant doesn’t have a splitter listed has garnered a 1.3 rating in the last three starts and that’s noticeable because it’s at a -2.5 on the season. Given the ineptitude coming from Pittsburgh (Miles Mikolas notwithstanding), I think Happ can still be played tonight. 

Punt Tier 

Mitch White is on the edge of Mid-Range and Punt and even though I don’t think he has a realistic shot at 30 DK points again, he does get the Rockies away from Coors. As a refresher, Colorado is 30th in average, 29th in OBP, and 30th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and WRC+ away from Coors and facing a righty along with a 26.5% K rate. White has a very passable 23.5% K rate and a FIP of 3.93. He’s doing a good job generating ground balls at a 47.5% rate and Colorado is second in ground ball rate outside of Coors as well. Both sides of the plate are over a 22.5% K rate and White is not expensive enough given the matchup and the recent performance. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 Stacks 

Brian is gone (and potentially already enjoying adult beverages) and I’m sure Jared is going here as well but I simply don’t care because the Rays are in Camden Yards against Matt Harvey. We get all nine innings guaranteed and the Rays just messed up Harvey and the Baltimore pitching staff in Tampa two series ago. Harvey has at least a .328 wOBA against each side of the plate and the xFIP against lefties is 5.25. His fastball gets crushed for a .224 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate and he throws it around 35% of the time total. My core group is going to be Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, and the salary-saving Kevin Kiermaier. Lowe is the best fastball hitter on the team, followed closely by Arozarena, and both sit over a .320 wOBA while Lowe has a .306 ISO, best on the team against righty pitching. Meadows himself is at .300 and fourth on the squad against the fastball while Kiermaier is on a tear lately with almost nine DK points per game and hitting over .320. 

Going this route along with a Cole/Happ duo at pitcher (as an example) means we need a cheaper stack that is more infield-heavy. Lo and behold, the righties for the Nationals fit the build absolutely perfectly. They are super cheap and the trio of Ryan Zimmerman, Carter Kieboom, and Tres Barrea fit perfectly. Zimmerman has smashed lefties for most of his career and sits at almost a .290 ISO while Kieboom is over a .320 wOBA and Barrea (in 29 PA, to be fair) has a .455 ISO and .596 wOBA. Hill is allowing a .333 wOBA and 4.97 FIP against righties, giving us much-needed flexibility tonight. 

• Red Sox (probably chalk again) against Logan Allen 
• Padres against Packy Naughton 
• Blue Jays against Matt Manning 
• Yankees against Sean Manaea 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26

There are only three games on the early slate and none include Jon Lester, so we’re going to focus on the nine-game main slate tonight. Just like last night, we have some big names on this slate but unlike last night, they are in generally better spots. We have plenty to talk about in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 so we can carve out our path to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

I’m only looking at two pitchers in the Ace Tier in Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Both Yu Darvish and Zach Eflin are coming off the IL and I’m not particularly interested with no discount involved. Darvish has taken a step backward after the sticky stuff crackdown and Eflin has been out for around a month and only pitched 2.1 innings in his lone rehab start. I’ll start with Scherzer because I think he may be the chalkier of the two and we have no pitch count worries with Mad Max. He is typically going only around six innings but he’s also rocking a 34.4% K rate. The splits won’t be the most important here because the Padres are typically balanced as both sides of the plate are under a .265 wOBA and both are over a 32% K rate. Scherzer has a lower xFIP against righties which is what I’d like to see because generally, the more dangerous hitters are on the right side. 

I’m not in love with the price on Sale because he only threw 71 pitches last time out. Now the Sox had a decent lead and Sale did give up five hits and a walk, but it was still a surprise. His first 10 IP look very good with a walk rate of 2.5% and a K rate of almost 33%. The ground ball rate is very encouraging at 56% and nobody is hitting him hard at just 11.9%. Another small concern is the slider only has a 28.6% whiff rate so far and Sale isn’t throwing it more than 21.3%. The change has been his second pitch and in the small sample, it has zero strikeouts and a .590 wOBA. The good news is Minnesota is 25th against that pitch and Sale hasn’t even made it back full strength yet and has recorded over 21 DK in both games. 

The Mid-Range/Punt Tier 

We’re going to roll the two tiers together because there’s a very interesting grouping of three in the $7,300-$7,100 range we’ll get to in a minute. First, we need to hit on Alex Wood and even though he feels like he’s kind of in no man’s land as far as salary goes, he deserves to be mentioned. Wood is sitting over a 25% K rate and the Mets actually climb up to a 24.3% K rate against lefties. They are also 26th in OPS, 28th in ISO, and 25th in both wOBA and wRC+ this season. The Mets are 10th against the slider which is a small concern but Wood’s slider only gives up a .251 wOBA and has a 37.8% whiff rate. After a tough three-start stretch, Wood has rebounded with 21 DK or more in the past three games. 

The reason I doubt Wood gets much ownership is that I believe the field goes with an Ace and one of Miles Mikolas, Zac Gallen, or Yusei Kikuchi. I will say that Kikuchi comes into this game in the worst form, having gotten mauled the last time out by the Astros. The Royals have gotten much better against lefties as the year has gone forward but they also have the fourth-highest ground ball rate since July 1. That’s a big deal because Kikuchi generates a 49.9% rate himself to go with a 25.6% K rate. Every pitch aside from his cutter has a whiff rate over 30.5% and even though his numbers against righties aren’t exactly great, we know he has a ceiling at this price tag. He and the next man are the riskiest players in this range in my eyes. 

Gallen has all the talent in the world but he’s had a rough year. He’s battled injuries and his xFIP of 3.93 looks better than his 4.59 ERA. His 27.4% K rate speaks for himself and he’s walking out of Coors Field after a dominant start with over 30 DK points. Philly isn’t the highest strikeout offense at just 23.1% against righty pitching, but Gallen boasts a whiff rate over 31% on all three of his pitches other than his four-seam. Philly should be righty-heavy and that’s a mixed bag for Gallen. It helps that he has a 30.6% K rate to that side but the xFIP is slightly higher at 4.09. Perhaps the best aspect is the Phils are 22nd against the fastball and Gallen has 40 of his strikeouts from his four-seam. 

My personal favorite is Mikolas and he went for over 18 DK in his first start back from a lengthy IL stint. The Cards were comfortable to let him throw 84 pitches and he threw a first strike 73% of the time. The swinging-strike rate was only 7.7% but that’s not exactly what Mikolas does. He still whiffed five hitters and while some of his underlying metrics don’t look very special, this Pirates offense is not anything to fear. Since the deadline, the K rate for the Buccos is 25.5% against righty pitching and they rank 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in that time span. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 Stacks 

I would suspect that the most popular stack would be the Red Sox, and I cannot argue that. They draw John Gant and I will go right back to the lefties even though they let me down last night. Gant is giving up a 17.4% walk rate, a 5.57 FIP, and a 5.62 xFIP against that side of the plate. That leaves us right back with hitters like Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber, and Rafael Devers. I grant you that Devers is really up there so we can look at Kike Hernandez who leads off. Every hitter is over a .320 wOBA and a .170 ISO and Gant is just not a good pitcher. 

I’m also looking at the Giants since Carlos Carrasco has not had much success coming back from injury. Lefties have a .336 wOBA and a 5.05 FIP to go with just a 21.2% K rate. He’s using the fastball almost 40% of the time against lefties and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and LaMonte Wade all have an ISO over .185 against that pitch. Carrasco also allows a 44% hard-hit rate against that side and that trio all sit above a .370 wOBA and a .240 ISO against righties on the season. Don’t forget about Buster Posey if he’s back because Carrasco has actually been worse against righty hitters. 

• Cleveland against Jordan Lyles 
• Marlins against Patrick Corbin 
• Cardinals against Mitch Keller 
• Mariners against Brad Keller 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25

A big thank you to Brian for giving me a day off yesterday and we roll back into MLB action with some heavy hitters on the mound! The name value on this slate is off the charts but I’m not totally sold on exactly how loaded it is. We’ve seen the trend lately of the high-salary arms not always paying off and this strikes me as one of those slates that could play out again. Let’s get into that and a whole lot more in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 and set our foundation for green screens tonight! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

There are technically five pitchers that fit in the Ace Tier by salary, but I’m casting out Yu Darvish off the hop. He’s coming back from the IL and facing the Dodgers. No, thank you. 

Instead, let’s focus on the other side of this game with Walker Buehler. He’s been a dynamo this season with a K rate just under 27%, a walk rate of 6.5%, a 3.13 FIP, and a 29.9% hard-hit rate. The Padres offense isn’t exactly one we target frequently but this is the first time Buehler has been under $10,000 since July 17th in Coors Field. Eight of the last 10 starts have exceeded 26 DK points which is wildly consistent these days. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .259, a 1.04 WHIP, and a .90 HR/9. His two starts against SD have generated 13 IP, 13 K’s, and four ER. He did score under 13 DK in one game solely because he struck out only four. The bottom line is despite the matchup, Buehler is far too cheap. 

We can possibly go double Ace again because Luis Castillo is still under $9,500. Seven of his last 10 starts have gone over 19 DK points and his seasonal K rate has climbed over 23%. We have to point out that since July 1st, Milwaukee has not been the strikeout offense it was through most of the year. They are only sitting at a 21.5% rate in that period and one start is really skewing his numbers lately. He got blistered by Cleveland for eight earned in 3.1 IP but past that, he’s continued to pitch extremely well. Milwaukee should have four lefties and that means a steady dose of four-seam fastballs and changeups. The Brewers are eighth and 16th against those pitches but both have a whiff rate over 31% this year. 

I feel like we should lump Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff together. Both of them have shown significantly wild outcomes lately. Wheeler has seen his K rate drop to around 25% since the start of July and Woodruff is under 24% in August. That’s not to say they can’t have strong starts, but we need to be aware that they have seen some slippage in the main metric we chase. The offenses they face are similar as well. Tampa strikes out more at 25.4% compared to 23.2% for the Reds while both teams are in the top-eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Realistically, none of the four pitchers have an easy matchup and I have them ranked Buehler, Castillo, Wheeler, Woodruff myself. 

Mid-Range Tier 

In honesty, I may well just live in the Mid-Range tonight because there are four potential pitchers here as well. I don’t believe that I will venture under Josiah Gray tonight. He’s only pitched 30 innings in the majors with a 4.59 xFIP, 3.90 ERA, and a 28% K rate. Now, there are some scary metrics like the 60.8% fly-ball rate and the 100% strand rate. At least the hard-hit rate is 31.6% and his swinging-strike stuff has been elite so far at 16.9%. His curve and slider make up around 43% of his mix and they have generated at least a 47.9% whiff rate. The right side of the plate has the higher wOBA but they also sport a higher K rate at 29.3% and a lower xFIP at 4.21. Miami will only have two lefties in the lineup typically and being in Miami will help the fly-ball rate as well. Add in the Marlins still striking out at a 25.2% rate and Gray has plenty of upside with Gray (and downside). 

We also have to mention Lucas Giolito simply because he’s $8,300. He’s been my arch-nemesis this year and Toronto is a terrifying lineup to face. He’s at least somewhat interesting because of the salary and the fact that Toronto is about mid-pack offensively in the past two weeks. That’s a significant downgrade from their seasonal numbers and even though the K rate is just 18.6%, Giolito is super cheap and I doubt carries much interest from the field. The Jays are only 15th against the change and while they have to break out sooner or later, Giolito is a strong play in deep GPP only. 

This game also features Robbie Ray who is yet another dynamic pitcher in a tough spot. On paper, the White Sox are not the offense to attack with a lefty pitcher who throws a fastball almost 60% of the time. The White Sox are ninth against the fastball and they rank inside the top 10 in all of our major offensive categories. The K rate is solid at 23.6% for the White Sox but still, this isn’t an easy path. Ray is a contender for the AL Cy Young with a 30.7% K rate, 3.37 xFIP, and a 2.79 ERA. He’s getting a swinging strike 15.1% of the time which is fourth in the majors. His slider has a whiff rate over 45.5% and 80 strikeouts on the season and the White Sox are 20th against that pitch. Ray shouldn’t be under $9,000 for any slate. 

Last and certainly not least, Shohei Ohtani is likely to be one of the more popular options on the slate. His K rate is 29.6% overall and the Orioles lineup sets Ohtani up for a ceiling-style game. They will generally throw out seven righties and Ohtani has held them to a .233 wOBA, a 2.19 FIP, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 34.7% K rate. Baltimore is 10th in K rate against righty pitching at 24.4% and in the bottom 10 in every offensive category. Ohtani should be able to continue his MVP campaign in this spot and has one of the better matchups on paper on the slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 Stacks 

Two of the best spots in my view aren’t that different than last night and I’m focusing on the Red Sox and Angels. To start, Boston draws Bailey Ober and he’s using his fastball over 55% against each side and it’s giving up a .200 ISO along with a hard-hit rate of 44.7%. I’m going after the lefties in the Red Sox lineup since Ober is allowing a 5.62 FIP, .379 wOBA, and a fly-ball rate over 40%. Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo are all very affordable for their skill set and the first two have ISO’s over .315 against righty fastballs. 

The Angels get Dean Kremer and the Orioles bullpen that had to come to the rescue in the second inning last night. I grant you that stacking the Angels is less fun without Ohtani, but we still have strong options. He’s just getting wrecked by everyone with a wOBA over .360 to each side and an xFIP over 5.40 as well. Jared Walsh, Max Stassi, and Brandon Marsh all have wOBA’s over .320 against righties and fastballs, making this a very easy combo to work with no matter who you’re pitching. 

• Diamondbacks against Mitch Keller 
• Giants against Taijuan Walker 
• Twins against Nick Pivetta 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23

We only get six games of MLB action tonight so we shouldn’t be too surprised that the pitching options aren’t exactly enticing. Even the bigger-name pitchers have flaws for some reason or another tonight. It’s likely not the best cash slate in the world but we’ll find some gems once again in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier

We’re bending the rules a bit because there are only three pitchers that are priced at $8,500 or higher for DK. I feel like Zack Greinke is going to be chalky since he gets the Royals and the field generally wants to anchor to a strong top-tier pitcher. Greinke only has a 17.9% K rate and a 4.36 FIP compared to a 3.43 ERA. To his credit, he does have just a 29.6% hard-hit rate but the swinging-strike rate is 9.2%, the lowest since 2012. It’s also interesting that he has a .332 wOBA against the right side of the plate and the Royals should have five of them in the lineup. His slider has been about his best swing and miss weapon with a 31.9% whiff rate and his changeup has the best wOBA allowed at .193. I totally get the play, but if he’s chalk and we treat the slate like it’s just GPP, I don’t think I’ll head in this direction. 

Maybe I’ve watched too much wrestling this week, but Lance Lynn stands out as a super risky alternative. Listen, I don’t need to spend a lot of time laying out how dangerous the Toronto lineup is. They are top-three in every offensive category we talk about and they only whiff 20.8%. However, this is baseball and a pitcher can shut down an offense on any given day. Ask the Tigers pitching over the weekend. It’s not a chance you should take lightly and it’s the state of the slate that leads me here. Lynn is far better against righties with a .223 wOBA, 2.57 FIP, 32.2% K rate, and a 23% hard-hit rate. Those are some elite metrics and his four-seam/cutter combo both have a whiff rate over 26% and a wOBA under .255. Toronto is top-five against the fastball but they are average against the cutter. I want to see projected popularity before making a call between the two. 

The Mid-Range and Punt Tier 

This is a slate where you’re going to have to make some uncomfortable choices and chase K upside. Enter Huascar Ynoa, now one start into his return from injury. Ynoa only threw 80 pitches last start, suggesting there was a pretty firm pitch count. He left that game with a 3.57 xFIP, 46.2% ground ball rate, and a 13.8% swinging-strike rate so there were plenty of encouraging signs. New York is still striking out at a 25% clip but the offense has been scorching hot since the deadline. Ynoa is also slightly worse against righties, a strong concern. The xFIP is only 3.42 and the hard-hit rate is only 24.4% against that side of the plate though so it’s not like he’s getting mauled. The good news also is he gets after the right side with sliders and that pitch has a 43.6% whiff rate and a .228 wOBA. The Yanks are only 16th against sliders this year, so there is an upside and plenty of risk to Ynoa. 

I’m not sure if there’s a pitcher that I “dislike” playing in DFS more than Kyle Hendricks. I’m not trying to be a jerk but he’s just a very boring fantasy option with a 17.2% K rate and a 4.77 FIP to go with a 1.56 HR/9. The swinging-strike stuff frankly isn’t there with just an 8.9% rate but he is hard to barrel up at 28.2%. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .310 and an xFIP over 4.00, so there’s nothing to write home about there. He’s really only in consideration because it’s the Rockies on the road, but let’s see what weather we get in Wrigley. 

So, here’s something interesting that I have honestly kind of missed lately. We typically stay away from using pitchers against the Astros because we chase strikeouts and that offense does not strikeout. They are under around 22% in about any split you want. However, since the start of July, Houston is not hitting well in a certain split. They are 22nd in average, 27th in OBP, 19th in slugging, 24th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. That split is against lefty pitching and I’m betting Daniel Lynch picks up some steam. He just hung over 23 DK points against this offense, which is good and bad. We know he’s capable of succeeding but Houston will be the first offense to see him a second time since he got called to the majors this time around. He’s getting progressively better results even if the metrics are a mixed bag. Just this past start, he had a 4.55 xFIP but his swinging-strike rate has been above 11% in each of the past three. The ground ball rate has also been above 41% in the past three so he’s just too cheap to not give him a look. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 Honorable Mention 

Alex Manoah – He’s as boom or bust like the rest of the options tonight and we prefer to target the White Sox with righty pitching since they sit at a 23.4% K rate and the second-highest ground ball rate at 47.3%. Manoah has legit strikeout stuff with a K rate over 28% but he just hasn’t learned how to be consistent in the majors quite yet (which is not easy, to be sure). The Sox are projected for six righties, which sort of helps. The wOBA for righty hitters is just .225 but the xFIP is higher at 4.49. This game has a lot of outcomes, but the pitcher’s duel between Lynn and Manoah is not out of the question. 

Humberto Mejia

As of right now, DK does not have Mejia in the player pool. Let’s keep an eye on that but he’s displaying strikeout stuff in AAA. I could be talked into taking a shot pending the price tag if he gets added to the slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 Stacks 

Normally I’m not huge on offenses coming out of Coors but I’ll make an exception against Wil Crowe and the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have hitters that rate well against the fastball, namely Josh Rojas and Ketel Marte. Those hitters also have a wOBA of at least .339 against righties with an ISO over .120. Crowe is giving up at least a .325 wOBA against each side of the plate and an xFIP of 5.14 against lefties. Daulton Varsho has been white-hot lately, hitting almost .500 across his last 10 and comes super cheap. Outside of Rojas and Marte, nobody is pricey and we can afford who we like. 

Instead of talking about another full-stack, I just want to direct attention to a punt shortstop in Nicky Lopez. Here’s a fun article from baseballsavant.com and across the past 10 games, he’s hitting .381 with eight stolen bases. Houston doesn’t stand out in that respect per se but Lopez has yet to be caught stealing and he only has 18 steals on the season. That means he’s been given the green light a lot more recently and is due to hit second in the lineup. With Greinke generating a 53.2% ground ball rate against lefties, there’s plenty of chance Lopez beats one out or gets a seeing-eye single. 

• A’s righties against Marco Gonzales
• Cubs against Antonio Senzatela 
• Mariners against Pete Blackburn 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21

We do have split slates this Saturday in MB, but the five-game slate in the evening looks a little rough. It’s likely to be heavy chalk in the pitching spots like we say Thursday so we’re going to look into the nine-game slate in the afternoon. There are far more options on that slate, so let’s get moving for MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 and lay our foundation for green!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 – Main Targets 

There are technically four pitchers that qualify for the ace tier, but let’s be real. We’re deciding between Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. I’m not messing with Kevin Gausman or Sean Manaea on this slate, especially the latter as Manaea has gotten mashed lately. Cole came back from Covid and threw just 90 pitches, but whiffed nine hitters and scored 31 DK. Cole still features a 34.7% K rate with a WHIP under 1.00 and the Twins should have a slight lean of being righty-heavy. That would help Cole out with a .230 wOBA and a 2.58 FIP. However, the four lefties could help raise the K ceiling since Cole has a 39.7% rate against that side of the plate. Minnesota is 11th in K rate against righties since the deadline. In the 22 IP since the second half kicked off, Cole is rocking a 40.4% K rate and a 2.37 xFIP. We can safely say he got his issues figured out after the sticky stuff crackdown. 

I do prefer Cole, but let’s not sell Mad Max short either. He’s been a bit more up and down lately and he’s only exceeded 25 DK points once in the past 10 starts. I grant you that one of those starts was only 3.1 IP due to rain and he had put up 17.7 in that time frame, but the Mets aren’t exactly a high-K team. Even lately when they have been putrid on offense, the K rate is barely over 23% despite being 26th in wOBA and wRC+. The Mets will likely put out six lefties and that could potentially temper the K ceiling for Scherzer. His K rate is 32.4% (not like that’s terrible at all) and the xFIP is 3.99, so there is some slight danger. What I don’t really love against lefty-lade lineups for Scherzer is it takes his slider out of play. He’s only thrown four total to lefties all year and that pitch has the highest whiff rate of his mix at 44%. If the popularity between these two is wildly different, we can use that in GPP. All things being equal, I’ll take Cole. 

The Mid-Range 

Things get a little ugly after the Aces on this slate and we’re probably picking between Triston McKenzie or Hyun Jin Ryu. Both of these pitchers have some significant risk, but such is life on this nine-game affair. McKenzie is interesting because I think some may chase the game log after he whiffed 11 and almost threw a no-hitter. He also threw about 15-20 pitches more than he has in his last 10 starts, which is a concern this time around. Throwing that many more pitches can be problematic and his xFIP in his past eight games has cleared 4.80 four times. There has been plenty of doing bullets and one of the most important factors with McKenzie is first strikes. When he throws them at a high rate, he can incorporate his curve and slider more. These pitches have a whiff rate over 43% and wOBA’s under .255. The start against the White Sox where he got tagged saw him throw just a 47.4% first-strike rate. In turn, the fastball was over 72%. The splits really aren’t a big deal for him but it makes us nervous when a key for him is something we have no idea if he’ll manage to do it. 

Ryu has been wildly difficult to get right all season long. He worked Boston and Cleveland for over 25 DK points each but then went for -10.4 and 9.3 in his last two starts. At $8,000, the K rate of just 19.5% is tough to back as well, especially considering Detroit has been much better against southpaws (not named Robbie Ray). Having said that, the hard-hit rate is 28.4% and the ground ball rate is 46.5%, not too shabby. His swinging-strike rate is down 2.5% from last year at 9.3% and it looks like his four-seam and changeup could be the culprits. Last year, the change was his most-used pitch and had a .240 wOBA with a 30.6% whiff rate. This year, it’s down to a 21.4% whiff rate and a .313 wOBA. That’s helped make him lean on the four-seam more often and it’s giving up a .350 wOBA. I’m definitely not excited, but he’s in GPP consideration. I also wouldn’t argue with one or two Detroit righties since he has a 4.12 xFIP against that side of the plate. 

The Punt Range 

Things have gotten progressively better for Reid Detmers through three big league starts, culminating in 24.5 DK points in the last outing. The young lefty held Houston down for six innings with only one earned run allowed and six strikeouts, much more in line with expectations. Cleveland has climbed towards the middle of the pack against lefties since July and they only strike out 22.6% of the time. Still, Detmers is throwing a solid mix of pitches, using a curve and slider mix around 52% of the time. Those two pitches have combined for 12 strikeouts out of 13 so far, have wOBA’s under .245, and whiff rates over 25%. Cleveland is 24th against the curve and 12th against the slider (but -10.7). It’s a leap of faith on talent, but he shouldn’t be quite this cheap. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 Stacks 

Ghost is going to be a happy man because we’re sacking Blue Jays today! They get Wily Peralta of the Tigers and he’s looking like a blow-up ready to happen against righties especially. Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez all have wOBA’s over .350 and ISO’s over .170 on the season against righties and that trio kills righty fastballs, all over a .288 ISO. Peralta’s fastball has allowed a .235 ISO, 45.3% hard-hit rate, and a 314-foot average distance. Peralta is also giving up a .342 wOBA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.70 FIP, and a 5.41 xFIP against righties. We can throw Corey Dickerson in for fun since he’s been hitting fifth in this lineup and Peralta is still at a 4.80 FIP against lefties. 

Now, this approach is going to have to stomach a Cole/Detmers pairing at pitcher but I’m really not happy with the mid-range today. With some of the Jays and that pair at pitcher, we can actually fit in some Rays against Dallas Keuchel. My two favorites are Mike Zunino and Randy Arozarena. Zunino has destroyed lefties across 94 PA with a .512 ISO, 1.272 OPS, and a .517 wOBA. Those aren’t typos. To add to his dominance, his hit lefty sinkers to a .321 ISO and .403 wOBA while Keuchel throws his sinker 33.3% of the time. Arozarena has a whopping .579 ISO and .704 wOBA against the sinker (albeit in a smaller sample but still), and he’s hit lefties with a .391 wOBA and .244 ISO this year. 

• Brewers against Paulo Espino 
• Nationals against Eric Lauer 
• Giants against Sean Manaea
• Mariners against Jake Odorizzi 
• Royals against Keegan Thompson 

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