MLB DFS Pitching

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13

We have a seven-game slate tonight and some actual contests to play, but the pitching options are honestly in short supply. We’ll be discarding the tiers tonight because we’re just looking for options we want to play. With a challenging slate ahead, let’s dive right into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 and figure it all out to find our paths to green screens!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 – Main Targets 

With the expectation that Clayton Kershaw will be on a very low pitch count, we can discard him quickly. You can’t pay the top salary for 60-70 pitches, even if it is Kershaw. In addition, the Dodgers want him for the postseason so if there’s any bump in the road he’ll be out quick. 

There is likely some sticker shock with Sandy Alcantara but this guy scored 42.7 DK points without the benefit of a CG or win bonus on DK, which is wildly impressive. No, I don’t expect him to whiff 14 hitters again but since August, his ERA has been under 3.20, the wOBA is at .275, and the K rate has skyrocketed over 30% from under 24% on the season. What is kind of fascinating is through that time, there hasn’t been a noteworthy shift in pitch mix or velocity. The first strike rate has been a little over the seasonal rate but the swinging-strike rate has been no lower than 11.1% in August and it’s mostly been far higher than that. 

I just wonder if he’s sequencing things differently. This is only the second time he’s pitched more than 43 innings in a season and he could just be getting better. My largest fears are the facts Washington has been second in OBP and at least league average in our other offensive categories with just a 21.3% K rate since the trade deadline. They are also projected for six lefties, and that has been the tougher matchup for Alcantara with a .299 wOBA. I’m not totally sold on him, but I’m not sure there are pitchers in a slam dunk spot tonight. 

Yu Darvish saw the velocity return and he generated a swinging-strike rate of 12.1% in his last start, halting the downward trend in his play for at least one start. In theory, this start should be a strong spot for him since it’s in San Francisco and he’s been better against lefties all year long. He’s faced them twice this year (both starts were in April, which is noteworthy) but scored 23 DK and 35 DK in those starts. Darvish has held lefties to a .281 wOBA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 27.7% K rate. Righties strike out at a higher rate but have a .310 wOBA on the year. There is some pretty strong trepidation left with Darvish, so I want to circle back to see how chalky he’ll be. There is some serious risk on both sides of the coin here. 

My favorite might be Nathan Eovaldi, coming off shocking Brian and the best offense in baseball for almost 29 DK points. Eovaldi held the Rays down for seven innings of eight strikeout ball and now draws the Mariners. Seattle is still striking out over 24% of the time against righties since the deadline and has stayed in the bottom 10 in the other offensive categories. Eovaldi has been worse on the road but the xFIP in that split isn’t something that gives me major concerns. He’s been better against lefties as well with a 26% K rate and a .276 wOBA, in large part because his curve and splitter both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .230. Seattle is 17th against the curve and this spot sets up the best on paper for Eovaldi. 

We’re only getting riskier as we press on and I’m going to talk about something we almost never do – attack the Dodgers lineup. Listen, the offense is wildly talented and they can hang a crooked number on anyone. Understand what you’re doing if you take this route and it’s risking negative DK points but Zac Gallen is interesting on this slate. Since August 1st, the Dodgers are – 

30th in average 

24th in OBP

26th in slugging

25th in OPS

17th in average

24th in wOBA

21st in wRC+, and they have whiffed 24.2% of the time. Gallen can struggle with the long ball a little bit but his K rate jumps up to 28.8% at home to go with a 3.52 xFIP. Only three of the projected Dodgers starters have an ISO over .172 against righties and this is interesting as well – the Dodgers are 17th against the slider. Gallen hasn’t thrown it a ton but when he has, it has gotten annihilated for a .577 ISO and an average distance of 358 feet. If he can survive the slider against this offense…..we could see 20 DK against an offense the field will avoid (and generally would be right to do so). I believe these are going to be the only pitchers I look at today. I flirted with A.J. Alexy but his 0.00 ERA and 4.94 xFIP don’t exactly match, and the fly-ball rate over 66% is scary as all get out against the Astros. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 Stacks 

I know Boston has been slumping a bit but they should not be this cheap against Logan Gilbert, who has had some issues preventing runs in the majors. He’s leaning on the fastball a ton and Boston is 12th against the pitch while Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez, and Alex Verdugo all hammer fastballs. Add in Kyle Schwarber and both he and Bogaerts are inside the top 20 against fastballs this season. All of those players are over a .320 wOBA and a .175 ISO on the season as well. I’m looking at Bogaerts, Renfroe, and Verdugo to start this stack off as Gilbert is worse against righties and then possibly mixing in Schwarber or Devers. 

I might well wind up just playing Hernandez at second base because I also want a piece of the Cardinals against Rich Hill. The Mets are coming off a majorly emotional series against the Yankees and I could see a let-down spot here. St. Louis is first in ISO against lefties and it starts with Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado. They all have at least a .370 wOBA and an ISO of .236 and O’Neill leads with a .319 ISO himself. The pitch that gets him in trouble is his fastball as well with a .381 wOBA and 13 home runs given up. Nado has been awful against fastballs this season but I’m going to overlook that for the splits while Goldy and O’Neill are two of their best options against that pitch. Goldschmidt is 11th in baseball and he’s going yard tonight. As Brian says, wait for the notification and book it. 

• Padres against Jose Quintana/Giants bullpen 
• Rays against Alek Manoah (not a full stack in my eyes)
• Jays against Drew Rasmussen
• Marlins against Paolo Espino 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11

We have a split slate just like normal on Saturday and the afternoon might be a little unconventional. The evening is a little bit more straightforward and what we normally talk about so let’s get rolling in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 to talk about it all! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11 

Afternoon 

So, I was very close to taking the Brian approach and telling you guys this is a slate you should skip. Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler both take the mound, and we’re always interested. They both have strong matchups but past those two pitchers…wow, it gets bad quickly. What catches my eye though is we have an incredibly cheap (for them) offense in the Toronto Blue Jays. I get that their game is a doubleheader and we generally avoid that but no batter for the Jays is over $4,900. I’m ready to take my chances with seven guaranteed innings in Baltimore and use cheap hitters like Josh Lowe of Tampa and jam as many Jays and cheap Rays that I can get with the ace pair. It’s the only path I’d consider, or I would skip this slate entirely (which is just smart and disciplined if you don’t like a slate). 

Evening 

We dodged the bad start from Walker Buehler since he pitched on Sunday night baseball last time out and there’s no real reason to treat that as anything but a bump in the road. The Padres aren’t a great matchup but Buehler just went 6.2 IP with one unearned run and eight strikeouts. There is almost nothing to pick on for Buehler because the wOBA against each side of the plate is under .270, the K rate is at least 24.7%, and the WHIP is under 1.10 as well. His swinging-strike rate is 11.5% and even with a fastball-heavy approach, Buehler is one of the better options on the evening slate. The fact he’s only $9,400 likely leaves him the chalkiest as well. 

This is going to be the sixth time Charlie Morton has squared off against the Marlins and frankly, it’s been a mixed bag of results for him. In three of those starts he’s scored under 16 DK but in the past two, he’s scored over 28 DK. I think folks are going to weigh the past two starts far more and I can’t really argue with that. Ground Chuck is up to a 28.6% K rate overall with a 49% ground ball rate, a major combo. The smallest concerns are Morton has been a little worse against righties with a .277 wOBA and the K rate falls to 25.9%. The good news is Miami is projected to be more lefty-heavy than normal with four of each handedness. If that holds, it’s going to be very hard to not play Morton as Miami is top-five in K rate against righty pitching. I would be surprised if Buehler/Morton is not the stone chalk tonight and I’m fine rolling with it. 

There’s always some trepidation in playing Luis Castillo and he was very good in the last start after displaying a .341 wOBA and 4.58 ERA in August. The K rate has been over 25% since the start of June so there is still some upside potential. A concern would be the Cardinals are strong against the changeup at seventh but Castillo is also better against righties with a 3.10 xFIP and a .311 wOBA on the year, and that’s with a .311 BABIP. In his last three starts against the Cards, he’s scored at least 19 DK with a total of 22 strikeouts. On a slate with limited options, we’re likely spending more than normal on pitching. 

Lastly, we’re looking at Luis Garcia and he can be tough to get a bead on. The K rate is 28.5% but he hasn’t exceeded six strikeouts more than twice since the start of August. That’s not exactly ideal and the story with Garcia is the same as it usually is. If he can survive his fastball being rather hittable with a .386 wOBA, the rest of his pitch mix (about 54% worth of his pitches) are outstanding. With the Angels leaning more righty-heavy, that brings the cutter/slider mix into play heavier than anything else. They both have a whiff rate over 43% and a wOBA under .225, which are both very appealing. If the field reacts how I would think, Garcia is going to be very unpopular since he’s the highest salary on the slate. 

I don’t think we need to go this low but Michael Pineda is in play, in theory. I would still have some concerns about his pitch count because he only threw 44 pitches the last time out (and the win goosed his 15 DK points) but if he could hit 60 pitches at $5,400…I could see it. I just don’t think we need to take that chance with Morton sitting there at $8,000 with a clear higher ceiling. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 Stacks 

We’re heading out West and to an unusual spot as I think Seattle is in a great spot tonight. First, they draw Humberto Castellanos and lefties have had his number so far through 54 batters faced. They have a .354 wOBA, 5.25 xFIP, and a fly-ball rate of 45.9%. He’s using the fastball almost 50% of the time and it’s giving up a .423 wOBA and .263 ISO. J.P Crawford, Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro, and even Jarred Kelenic has an ISO over .215 against that pitch except for Crawford. They are all also over a .300 wOBA against righties on the year and a bonus is Arizona has the highest bullpen WHIP, xFIP, the sixth-highest HR/9, and only a 19% K rate. 

I’m not exactly sure why the White Sox are so cheap, but I’m not really complaining. They are slated to draw farmhand Connor Seabold, a 25-year old righty with a suspect profile. He’s sported a 4.93 xFIP and 50.5% fly-ball rate through 41.2 IP in AAA and that’s flat out going to get him beat up against this White Sox lineup. We can go right down the middle with power hitters like Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert who all have at least a .343 wOBA and a .199 ISO against righty pitching. The fact no player of that trio is above $4,600 makes them easy to fit with anyone else. 

• Dodgers against Chris Paddack 
• Twin against Brady Singer
• Reds lefties against Miles Mikolas 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 and we have some fascinating options along with one stone-cold chalk option up top. I’m not sure I understand some of the prices here so let’s get to work and find our paths to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I’m not sure what Robbie Ray has to do to get priced over $11,000. He’s been borderline untouchable lately with at least 32.8 DK in the past four starts and over 20 DK in eight of the past 10. Since the calendar has flipped to July, his ERA has been under 2.00, the wOBA has been under .265, the K rate has been above 32%, and the WHIP has been under 0.95. It’s just wild to think about how far Ray has come this season and while Baltimore is better against lefties, you have to favor Ray here. He just torched this lineup for 32 DK two starts ago, and it’s hard to not just lock him in with one of the highest ceilings on the slate. 

One of the reasons I’m just locking Ray in is because the majority of the Ace Tier is not all that appealing. Carlos Rodon likely won’t throw more than about 60-70 pitches, Tyler Mahle is wildly expensive and has been heavily reverse-splits this season, Joe Musgrove faces a healthy Dodger team…It’s not great. Even if we look at Jordan Montgomery, his K rate was under 20% in August across 20.2 IP. There are two in the running to possibly go with the double Ace route, but I would not use these pitchers instead of Ray. 

Julio Urias gets a scary spot in perception, but the reality doesn’t exactly match. The Padres have not figured out lefties this year as they rank 25th in wRC+, 24th in wOBA, 28th (!) in ISO, 24th in OPS, 27th in slugging, and 12th in OBP. The K rate is only 22.2% but if it was not for the uniform they wear, we’d love Urias against an offense that ranked this poorly. He’s using the curve about 34% of the time and has a .187 wOBA with it along with 63 strikeouts. The Padres are fourth against the curve this year so there’s certainly some level of danger here, but he could be a stealthy late-night hammer. 

Similar to Urias, Framber Valdez draws a very advantageous matchup in the Angels. Since the start of August, they are 24th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They do come up to 16th in ISO but I’m fine with that given the rest of the metrics. As we always talk about with Valdez, the K rate is mediocre at 22% but the ground ball rate is spectacular at 69.9%. The Angels are third in ground ball rate against lefties at 47.2% and Valdez has a wOBA under .290 against both sides of the plate. It should help a little bit that he whiffs lefties at a 31.8% rate and LA is projected to have three in the lineup. They also rank 25th against the curve and that has been the go-to pitch for Valdez this season with 80 strikeouts and a .179 wOBA. 

Mid-Range/Punt 

I’ll be honest, I’m not super interested in the mid-range tonight. Shohei Ohtani is interesting but the Houston offense doesn’t strike out a ton at just 20.2%. Now, they should have six righties projected in the lineup and that’s generally been a boom spot for Ohtani. He’s crushing righties this season with a .226 wOBA, 2.04 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, and a 34.7% K rate. I’m not going to be shocked if he puts up 20 DK, but I’m not sure we have to take the risk against a good offense. 

The one pitcher that stands out to me is Ian Anderson. He’s had a tough year, only pitching 104.2 innings with various injuries. However, when he’s been on the mound he’s been mostly strong with a FIP/xFIP combo of 3.98/4.00. That’s not spectacular but it’s not terrible by any stretch, especially when the K rate is 22.2%. He’s keeping the ball out of the air with a 50.2% ground ball rate and the swinging-strike rate is perfectly acceptable as well at 11.4%. His two main pitches are the four-seam and changeup, both of which have a wOBA under .300 and the change has a 34.1% whiff rate. Miami is 21st against the change and 29th against the fastball, a big plus for Anderson. The wOBA against righties is a bit worse, but the xFIP is almost identical and the K rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rates are all in line. The largest difference is the BABIP is .297 against righties compared to .250 against lefties. The bottom line is you don’t need dominance from Anderson at this salary and Miami has been an offense to target all year. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 Stacks 

I’m starting in a weird spot because we’re going to talk about the Rays in the second part, and I know Brain is going there too (shocker). We don’t do this often but let’s talk about the Rockies on the road. They start with a lefty in Bailey Falter, but he may not be in the start for super long since he’s been a reliever. Even still, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers hammer lefties with wOBA’s over .400 and ISO’s over .275 against lefties. Falter is also throwing a sinker 44% of the time and Rodgers sits at a .500 ISO while Cron is sitting at .414. Garrett Hampson doesn’t hit the lefty sinker well but has a .363 wOBA and 16 stolen bases on the year. He’s a super cheap add and the Philly bullpen is fourth in HR/9 on the season. 

Alright, the main event is once again the Rays and how could they not be? Wander Franco, Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot, Nelson Cruz, and Yandy Diaz are sitting at least at a .315 wOBA and the top two just destroy lefties in a major way. Boyd has a 4.79 xFIP and the K rate is only 19.9%. The xFIP climbs over 5.00 against righties and the fly-ball rate is almost 45%. The Detroit bullpen is 12th in HR/9, seventh in ERA, and sixth in xFIP. 

• Twins against Daniel Lynch
• Blue Jays against Chris Ellis
• Reds against Jon Lester 
• Brewers against Eli Morgan

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8

We get another nine-game slate but the pitching options are simply not that great. Sure, we have pitchers that are priced like they are going to be awesome but that could be a lot to ask. Let’s talk about them and pitchers that we might actually like in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 so we can find our path to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

Some pitchers are priced like aces but I will not look twice at three of them. Freddy Peralta only made it two innings in his last start and threw under 55 pitches, so I can’t imagine we get more than 75 or so tonight. That is frankly not enough to pay $10,200 for and I’ll move on quickly. It wouldn’t help that Philly is projected for playing four lefties. 

The metrics don’t look poor for Nathan Eovaldi as he’s better against lefties with a .281 wOBA, 2.39 FIP, and a 25.4% K rate. One of the primary reasons is his curveball since it has a .207 wOBA and he uses that way more against the left side. The issues are the Rays are the Rays, one of the best offenses in baseball. The other scary part is they ranked fifth against the curve, so Eovaldi is out for me. 

Yu Darvish hasn’t been right in a while. Since the start of July, his ERA has been over 6.32 across 44 IP. The wOBA has been at least .309 and while the xFIP says he’s been unlucky over that period, you can’t possibly trust him right now. The Angels aren’t an elite offense but I am not interested myself. 

I feel like Shane McClanahan is going to be the chalk. It didn’t go super well the last time out against Boston, but he struck out eight and the young lefty isn’t going to give up eight hits and four runs very often. His K rate is 28% and the FIP/xFIP combo is under 3.30 for each metric. The swinging-strike rate is elite at 15.3% and that would rank fifth if he qualified. Boston is a strong offense against lefties overall but are still missing a main cog in Xander Bogaerts. With a whiff rate over 40% on all three of his pitches that isn’t the fastball, the salary doesn’t match the potential even with some risk baked in. 

Frankie Montas has been on a tear and even against a tough offense, I’m still considering him. He is projected to face five lefties and that would actually work out for Montas by his splits. His K rate is 29.8% against that side of the plate and the FIP is down to 3.18. The White Sox are third in ground ball rate and that would help out as well, especially in Oakland. He uses that splitter far more against lefties and it has a .207 wOBA and a 51.5% whiff rate with 76 strikeouts. The White Sox are striking out about 23% of the time and Montas can do some damage. 

I honestly don’t see much past this. Alek Manoah is closest but it’s still the Yankees in New York. They are 13th against the slider which is sort of interesting and I just don’t love the instability that Manoah brings. He does have upside in theory since the Yankees are whiffing almost 25% of the time but I’d rather just pitch Montas in Oakland. A pitcher like Vladimir Gutierrez is starting to pitch to his xFIP well over 5.00 and a punt like Andre Jackson has a 1.09 ERA but an xFIP over 5.00 as well with little strikeout upside so far in the majors. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 Stacks 

Dallas Keuchel has been getting blistered since the start of July, with an ERA well over 6.00 and a wOBA over .350, in addition to a K rate under 12% and a FIP over 6.00. Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Josh Harrison, and Jed Lowrie are all over a .300 wOBA and .120 ISO against lefties so far this year. They also have an ISO over .175 against the sinker, which is used 33% by Keuchel. Regardless of what pitch he’s throwing, it’s not working and the A’s should continue to hammer him. 

Since it looks like a day to spend on pitching, we need a cheap stack and Baltimore fits perfectly with Oakland and get lefty Mike Minor. He has a 1.67 HR/9 against the right side of the plate and a 42.4% fly-ball rate. My main hitters are looking like Pedro Severino, Austin Hays, and Ryan Mountcastle. The latter two have a hard-hit rate over 55% against lefty fastballs and Minor throws it 44% of the time with a 312-foot average distance. Severino is rocking the best ISO on the team against that pitch at .329 and all of them are over a .185 ISO against lefties overall. 

• Rays against Eovaldi 
• Cubs against Gutierrez 
• Braves against Sean Nolin 
• Royals against Matt Harvey 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7

We’ve got 12 games on tap for tonight and the slate is pretty interesting. Most of the high-end ace pitchers are in terrible spots, but most of the mid-range plays are not super appealing either. It could be a tough road to walk down for the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some gems to lead us to green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

We have four players in that tier based on salary but there are really only two options in my eyes. I frankly won’t have exposure to Aaron Nola or Logan Webb. Nola is wildly unpredictable and he’s on the road, which has led to some terrible results this year. Webb has been outstanding but I’m not willing to pay $9,500 in Coors. The strikeout upside is capped too much for my liking. 

This may sound nonsensical, but I’m still somewhat interested in Gerrit Cole. In his last start, he was under $10,000 and very chalky and DK noticed and jacked up the price to nearly $12,000. Toronto is a nasty matchup with a 17.7% K rate since August first, which is the best mark in the league. They also are top 10 across the board in our offensive categories and you know what? That doesn’t mean Cole can’t walk out there and shove for seven innings while being very unpopular. Since the start of August, Cole has sported an ERA under 1.00, a wOBA under .220, a K rate over 35%, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 1.00 and 2.85. He’s scored at least 19 DK in three starts against this team and he’s an intriguing GPP option. 

You’re going to have to play Blake Snell in cash and he’s been phenomenal lately. He went nuts in August with a 1.72 ERA, a .227 wOBA, a 38.8% K rate, and an xFIP under 2.95. The Angels are fifth in ISO and top 10 in other offensive categories while striking out under 22% of the time, but Snell is pitching like the ace he’s capable of being. The slider and curve both have a whiff rate over 45% and the slider sports a .231 wOBA on the season. The Angels are fourth against the slider and if we’re being honest, there are some red flags here. If Snell wasn’t in unbelievable form, I’d be fading. He’s pitching SO well though that I’m willing to ride with him at home in this spot where the Angels lose the DH. 

Mid-Range 

The chalk option is going to be Zac Gallen and it’s not exactly hard to see why. The field has attacked Texas a ton lately and Gallen has a 26.7% K rate on the season through 91.1 IP. It has to be pointed out that his wOBA against each side of the plate is at least .319 and righties are a mixed bag. He is projected to face five of them and while he does have a 30.1% K rate, the FIP is scary at 5.63. His WHIP against lefties is 1.48 so while the Texas lineup isn’t good, there are some paths to failure for Gallen as well. The secondary stuff has swing and miss ability since his three pitches outside his four-seam have a whiff rate over 30%. I think we have enough options we can go different routes in GPP, but cash is more than fine. 

One pitcher that I think could be an interesting pivot is Wade Miley. The Cubs lead the league in K rate against lefties since August 1st at 29.7%, more than 3% more than Miami in second place. There is a risk here because Chicago is also top 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in that same time period and they are only 14th in ground ball rate. Miley generates a 49.6% ground ball rate and only gets hit hard at a 26.1% rate. Chicago can use seven righties out of eight hitters and that’s not totally ideal with a 17.4% K rate against that side to go with an xFIP over 4.00. You’d be banking on ground balls and the Cubs lineup just not being that good, which is a chance worth taking against the Gallen chalk. 

If you wanted to climb the salary ladder, Max Fried has to be in the discussion as well. He’s hit his stride since August started with a wOBA under .286, a K rate over 24%, and an xFIP under 2.80. Washington looks like a nasty matchup for a lefty pitcher and they do still have some lefty-killers, but the lineup is far different than it has been through part of this year. The curveball is his main strikeout weapon with 57 on the season, a .207 wOBA, and a 35.2% whiff rate. Washington is 25th against that pitch and they are third in ground ball rate since the deadline at 46.7%. They are down to 13th in slugging, wRC+ OPS, and 17th in ISO over that same time period. Fried has some definitive upside. 

Punt Tier 

There is one arm that somewhat catches my eye, even though there is some serious risk. Jackson Kowar is a 24-year old righty making his third start for the Royals and his last one was his best run. He’s the fourth-ranked prospect in the Royals system and generated a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in the least start, striking out six hitters. So far the metrics frankly don’t look great. Even against righties, the hard-hit rate is 43.5% and a .400 wOBA with a 5.07 xFIP. That is skewed heavily by his previous starts where he got smacked, so I don’t believe this is representative of his ability. Baltimore is 24th against the changeup and fastball, and those have been the two main pitches for Kowar thus far. He sported a 34% K rate in the minors this year so I think we can start seeing that upside tonight. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 Stacks 

I want to thank DK for making the Dodgers so cheap because it’s go time with that lineup tonight. J.A. Happ has gotten blistered this season and LA is not the lineup to stop the bleeding. Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, and even lefties like Corey Seager and Max Muncy are ALL over a .350 wOBA and .210 ISO against lefties. That’s just a minimum, with many of those hitters exceeding those marks. That’s not even talking about a punt like Albert Pujols if he plays and they are all over a .212 ISO against lefty fastballs, which Happ throws almost 40% of the time. 

The optimal approach is the Gallen/Snell pairing with Giants hitters in Coors, and that’s more than understandable. However, that approach makes it harder to do damage at the top of a GPP so let’s talk about a different path. We can rock the Snell/Kowar pair and still spend big on hitters from the Padres lineup since they face lefty Packy Naughton. The main three that correlates well with the Dodgers are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers. They all sit over a .333 wOBA and a .180 ISO against lefties, and Naughton’s changeup is used 43% with a 338-foot average distance. 

• Giants vs Chi Chi Gonzalez
• Yankees against Steven Matz 
• Royals against Alexander Wells
• D-Backs against Spencer Howard/Jordan Lyles 
• Mariners against Jake Odorizzi 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6

We only have seven games on the slate for tonight and there are some appealing options at pitcher, but it’s not a great slate overall. I don’t think we’ll have any cheaper options so we’ll need to find some gems in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6 – Main Target 

Ace Tier 

We have four pitchers in this tier and I’m not sure how much we should like any of them. Zack Wheeler checks in as the most expensive option but he’s only scored more than 20 DK in three of his last 10 games. He’s also trending down through his metrics as his K rate has gone down every single month, finishing at just 24.7% in August. Wheeler also had a 3.61 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP, both the highest marks of the season. Milwaukee is also ninth against the fastball and that is thrown by Wheeler 42% of the time and has 94 strikeouts. I’m not overly thrilled to pay top dollar for Wheeler in his current form. 

Chris Sale is also not really in my pool since the Rays are All Elite across the board against lefties, especially since the trade deadline. They only whiff 20.4% of the time and are top-four in every offensive category we value. That includes first in OBP and wRC+ and Sale couldn’t break 10 DK against them five days ago. He likely strikes out more than three hitters this time around, but there is no discount to be had on his salary. 

We played Brandon Woodruff last time out due to the fact he faced a lot of lefties and he is his better side of the plate with a 31.3% K rate and a .223 wOBA compared to .265 and 28.5% against the right side. Philly is projected to be balanced with four of each handedness and if that’s the case, I will feel better about Woodruff. He’s been very up and down lately as well with five of the last 10 under 16 DK. He’s mixing up his pitches a to, topping out at 33.7% for his four-seam. That is his go-to strikeout pitch with 99 on the season (no other pitch has more than the curve at 41) and no pitch has a wOBA higher than a .296 wOBA. I feel like he could be the favorite since the Phillies are 20th against the fastball on the season.

I feel like Sonny Gray could be the choice of the field since the Cubs have such strong strikeout tendencies, but man has he been a roller coaster this year. His 10.8% swinging-strike rate is in line with a normal season for him but he’s either been pretty good or he’s gotten smacked on the mound this year. The Cubs are projected to have four lefties in the lineup and that’s good news. Gray has been better against lefties with a 30.5% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and a .289 wOBA. The Cubbies have a 29.8% K rate since July 31st and I can’t really argue with attacking them, even if Gray gives us some heartburn. 

In honesty, the only path I’m that interested in is playing one of these four (likely driven in part by projected rostership) and paring him with Tarik Skubal. The biggest issue in his profile continues to be his four-seam fastball, which has a .421 wOBA and 19 of his 30 home runs. Past that, every pitch is below the .300 wOBA mark and has a whiff rate over 30% except his sinker. Pittsburgh has been dead last against the fastball through most of the season, and that’s with Bryan Reynolds ranking in the top 20 against the pitch. hey also sit 22nd or lower in every category we talk about and whiff 22.5% of the time. That isn’t a ton, but Skubal has a 26.4% K rate and he was at 28.7% through August with a 3.40 xFIP and a 3.25 ERA. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6 Stacks 

The first team I’m going after is going to be a pretty narrow three-man stack for the Royals because they get Baltimore lefty starter Zac Lowther. He’s only pitched 8.1 innings in the majors but has a FIP of 5.80 and a hard-hit rate of 48.1%. He’s used the fastball 60% for the time and the trio of Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi, and Michael A. Taylor are who I’m chasing. The first two (and you could just pair them up if you like) destroy lefties with a wOBA over .430 and ISO’s over .365. Mondesi is only in 18 PA, but you still get the idea. They all hit the lefty fastball well and even when the matchup switches to a righty pitcher, the first two are over a .333 wOBA. Taylor is only at a .278 wOBA but can swipe a bag or two and is too cheap to add to a stack. 

How about we stay in that game and stack up some Baltimore hitters? Kris Bubic has a .363 wOBA, 5.75 FIP, a 1.59 WHIP, and just a 20.5% K rate against the right side. The Orioles should counter with hitters like Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, and Jorge Mateo who all have a wOBA over .325 and an ISO over .225 against lefty pitching. Bubic also throws a fastball over 50% of the time and that trio is going to have their way with it. Mancini is at a .521 wOBA and .485 ISO whip Hays is at a .277 ISO and Mateo has a 57% hard-hit rate with a 321-foot average distance. All three of these hitters are over 320-feet and this game should see some fireworks. 

• Tigers against Bryse Wilson 
• Mets against Patrick Corbin 
• Nationals against Trevor Williams (tough to fit Sal Perez and Juan Soto, a big reason I left the Nationals out)
• Jays against Jameson Taillon 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5

It’s one of the smaller Sunday slates with only 10 games and we have some heavy hitters on the mound, as it were. I don’t think we have any real cheap options tonight but we learned a few nights ago working with double aces is very possible in any slate. Let’s got moving in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 and figure out who we’re pitching and the stacks to compliment them!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

We only have three ace-level players as far as salary goes and I have to believe that Robbie Ray will be the most-rostered pitcher on this slate. He very much should be as he is on a tear, pushing Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young. It is of small concern that Oakland is the best team against the slider in the league and Ray has 99 strikeouts with that pitch. It also has a .218 wOBA and a 46.4% whiff rate so it’s a strength for both sides. That pitch is ranked sixth among sliders on FanGraphs this season so even with small concerns, Ray is an elite play. He’s striking out righties at a 31.7% clip and only has a 1.06 WHIP against them as well. Despite likely facing eight righties, Ray is pitching so incredibly well and he’s walked through difficult matchups in this stretch before. 

I’m looking to play Ray and Corbin Burnes together in all honesty. Theoretically, this brings out the best outcomes for Burnes since he’s nastier against righties with a 37.1% K rate, a 1.52 FIP, 2.30 xFIP, .209 wOBA, and a 0.81 WHIP. Six of the eight hitters not counting the pitcher should be righty for the Cards today He’s started three games against the Cards this year and the floor has been 21 DK in those starts. St. Louis does rank 11th against the cutter but they are also bottom 10 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS against righties this year and Burnes feels among the “safer” picks on the slate. I can’t wait for that phrase to bite me. 

Last but certainly not least, Dylan Cease has to be in the running as well. He’s rocking a 30.8% K rate and the FIP/xFIP combo is under 3.90. His pitch mix could be especially nice in this spot because he has a four-seam/slider combo that he throws 76% of the time. They’ve accounted for 129 strikeouts on the season and the slider is fantastic at a 47.6% whiff rate and a .262 wOBA. Kansas City is bottom 12 against both pitches but they are worse against the fastball and Cease does have a .344 wOBA against that pitch. He is reverse splits and will face five righties so I do think he’s third in this tier, but the gap isn’t exceptionally large. 

Mid-Tier

We have to talk about Luis Castillo but I have to say, he’s showing signs of turning back into what he was at the start of the season. In August, Castillo had a 4.58 ERA, .341 wOBA, and a 1.30 WHIP. I grant you that the xFIP was only 3.27 so it’s a mixed bag for Castillo, as it’s been through a significant chunk of 2021. The Tigers are also 11th against the changeup and that’s not ideal because the change has been the best pitch for Castillo with a .263 wOBA and a 32% whiff rate. At the salaries involved, I’m more than happy to plant my flag with Ray and Burnes for $1,200. and $800 more. 

I may be more inclined to also look at another Luis, as in Luis Patino for the Rays. Of course, nothing is ever cut and dry but I only consider Patino if he draws a righty-heavy lineup. He has a .351 wOBA against the left side of the plate to go along with a 7.16 xFIP, 6.11 FIP, and his walk rate is higher than his K rate. When he faces a righty, the xFIP comes down to 3.71, the K rate spikes to 29.3%, and the WHIP is only 0.95. It’s pretty easy to see that the slider is the main reason since he’s thrown it 239 times against righties out of 282 total sliders. It’s been excellent with a 35.3% whiff rate and a .250 wOBA. Minnesota is projected to have six righties and if that holds, I like Patino here. 

I kind of view Elieser Hernandez and Josiah Gray as the same style of pitcher. Both have strikeout upside in theory, but both have some flaws as well. For Hernandez, the K rate hasn’t exactly been there since returning from injury with only a 20.6% rate, 5.96 FIP, and a 4.62 xFIP. His four-seam is giving up a .445 wOBA and that is pretty concerning at this juncture. 

As far as gray is concerned, his K rate of 26.7% looks great but the FIP is over 6.00 to each side of the plate and the WHIP is over 1.30. Both sides also sport a fly-ball rate over 50% and his four-seam/curve makes up about 80% of his mix. Those pitches also both have a wOBA over .300 and they have given up 12 home runs already in just 40 IP. Even with ceiling potential, I can’t really get on board. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 Stacks 

Listen – it is not my fault that the Rays continue to get a putrid starting pitcher to pick on. They are an elite offense that we have continually learned nobody seems to want to play, and I bet today is not all that different. Griffin Jax has an xFIP around 5.50 against each side with a wOBA over .350 to each side as well. He’s using the fastball over 45% of the time against each side on top of that and it’s giving up a .307 ISO. Every single pitch has an average distance of at least 304 feet. Every. Single. Pitch. Every Rays player is in play today and my main targets are Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and punting with Kevin Kiermaier. You can legitimately mix and match everyone with who you want to fit. 

After that, I do want to snag a piece or two of the (presumably) chalky Yankees. They get lefty Keegan Akin and I want Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Kyle Higashioka. I can only afford two of them and will need a punt or two (likely looking towards Pittsburgh again against Zach Davies to make it work), but we get Sunday lineups and can get a punt we don’t expect. Those hitters are affordable and are over a .320 wOBA against lefties at least and they all hit the fastball well. Higgy did play yesterday so that could make the decision easy. 

• Brewers against Jon Lester 
• Reds lefties against Casey Mize 
• Jays against Cole Irvin
• Cubs against Wil Crowe 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4

It’s Saturday and we have a split slate with six games in the afternoon and nine in the evening! The later slate got the better end of the pitching to be sure, even though the spots are not perfect. We have a lot to get to in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 so let’s get rolling and start laying our foundations for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 – Afternoon

We’re going to discard the Tiers for the afternoon because this slate is tough sledding no matter what salary you’re paying. I feel like Marcus Stroman is going to be the chalk, even though the salary is pretty uncomfortable. It is honestly baffling why he doesn’t strike out more hitters. The swinging-strike rate has never been higher than the 11.7% he’s sporting this year and three of his four pitches have a whiff rate over 33%. Still, the K rate is under 22% which isn’t much for this salary range. The Nationals are also ninth in OBP since the trade deadline (as mentioned in Discord by user Derceto) with a K rate under 21%. The other large issue is Stroman has a lower K rate against the left side of the plate and Washington is scheduled to have at least five in the lineup. He’s appealing mostly just because of the slate. 

I’m also going against the grain for what I normally play and looking heavily at Chris Archer. He’s only pitched 10.1 innings but his K rate is 34.8% so far. I do NOT expect that to continue, but it was nice to see him get to 59 pitches and the velocity come back to him as he pitched last time out. The FIP/xFIP combo is 2.19/2.99 and his WHIP is only 0.87 despite a .423 BABIP. The swinging-strike rate of 14.9% looks excellent and if he gets to around 70 pitches, that’s only going to help. We do need a big grain of salt in such a small sample and that’s a small concern. His numbers against righties look rough with a .354 wOBA but that’s also the side of the plate that has a .474 BABIP, a ridiculous number. He’s using the four-seam/slider combo 90% of the time and the slider has earned a 46.9% whiff rate, even with it being the most thrown pitch. Minnesota is just 16th against that pitch. 

Two other pitchers may get some attention but are not likely to be my choice. Jose Berrios is $10,000 and he just doesn’t seem to pay off that price very often. Yes, last game he went off but that puts him one start closer to a bad one and the A’s aren’t the Tigers. Even though I’, noted to not get along with Berrios, he does have a pathway to a great start here. He’s much better against righties with a .234 wOBA, 2.92 FIP, 24% K rate, and a 0.85 WHIP. Oakland likely only has three lefties in the lineup and they are 27th against the curveball. That is the primary pitch for Berrios with 80 strikeouts, a .251 wOBA, and a 35.7% whiff rate. 

Jordan Montgomery suddenly can’t strike anyone out, with just five combined inches last two starts and not higher than six in nine of his last 10 starts. That doesn’t scream upside, especially against a Baltimore offense that only whiffs 22.4% of the time against lefties. They are also 11th in ISO, wRC+, and 13th in wOBA. While they aren’t a trustworthy offense, I would favor them over Montgomery in New York. He has a .306 wOBA and a 4.26 xFIP against righties and the Orioles can throw eight at him. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 Afternoon Stacks 

It’s going to sound like a broken record but we’re going with the Rays once again. The Twins are using a 35-year old lefty in Andrew Albers who has a 5.97 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, and a 10.5% K rate against righties through just 19 hitters faced and that’s not going to cut it against the Rays. Mike Zunino, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Yandy Diaz are all over a .310 wOBA and the first three are over a .220 ISO. Albers is throwing a fastball or sinker over 60% of the time against righties, and we all know what to do with that. Load them up!

You’re likely wondering how on Earth I’m going to afford the pitching we’ve talked about and the Rays. Don’t fret, there’s a super cheap offense we can get exposure to on this slate. I didn’t mention Nelson Cruz for the Rays because we can consider a three-man Pirates stack with Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran, and Hoy Park, among others. I want Bucco lefties because Kyle Hendricks has a .368 wOBA against lefties and that number has been higher in Wrigley, as is the 6.22 FIP and the 5.21 xFIP. Reynolds would be getting buzz for a dark horse MVP candidate if the Pirates were any good, and the other two are over a .285 wOBA. Moran has been hot since coming back from injury, hitting .324 over the past 10 games. 

• Blue Jays against Paul Blackburn 
• Red Sox against Eli Morgan 
• Cubs against Miguel Yajure 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 – Evening

Ace Tier 

Some pitchers are priced like aces but I can’t say there is an ace on this slate. You could try and take a shot with Tyler Mahle since he draws the Tigers, a strikeout-heavy lineup but there’s plenty of warning signs there as well. Detroit is 20th against the fastball and Mahle throws his four-seam over 52% of the time. It does allow a .327 wOBA but it also has 111 of his 174 strikeouts so it’s very clearly his best strikeout weapon. Mahle has been reverse-splits with a .360 wOBA against the right side of the plate and the Tigers project to be balanced with four of each handedness. His K rate against lefties of 31.7% keeps him in the running, but let’s see how the rest of the slate shakes out. The salary is truly frightening. 

Both Framber Valdez and Joe Musgrove are theoretically in play, but the lower strikeout ceiling has me concerned. San Diego has come up to 22.2% for the K rate against lefties but Valdez is only at a 22.4% rate himself. What is interesting for him is the Padres are sixth in ground ball rate while Valdez is flirting with a 70% rate. They are also far worse against lefty pitching than one would expect, sitting under 20th in slugging, OPS, ISO, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. Valdez is a fine option with some stealthy upside but the price is a little hard to swallow. 

Musgrove was dominant last time out against the Angels team and he gets another challenge with the Astros. They are the lowest K-rate team in baseball combined with sitting in the top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. It does help they lose the DH, that Musgrove is over a 28% K rate, and the Astros are projected to be righty-heavy. Musgrove excels against that side of the plate with a .228 wOBA, 29% K rate, 0.87 WHIP, and a 2.89 FIP. It should be noted that the xFIP is about the same regardless of handedness, so there is a risk in going against the Houston lineup to be sure. Then again, the Astros struggled to hit Jake Arrieta last night so maybe Musgrove can handle it just fine. 

Lastly, we have Julio Urias is a pitcher’s haven but in a not-so-easy spot as far as the opponent goes. San Francisco is about average through most of our categories so far against lefties but the K rate is very low at just 21.7%. What could really help Urias is the Giants are still projected to play three lefties and he’s whiffing them at a 31% rate. The righties are at 24.9% which is still plenty but some lefties help raise the ceiling a bit. San Fran is ninth against the curveball and that has been the main strikeout pitch for Urias with 66. He’s faced this team four times already this season and he’s logged 17, 21, 31, and 1 DK points against them. 

I feel like Reynaldo Lopez could bite me at any time but his three starts recently have been very strong overall. He’s only allowed a total of three runs and he’s been lights out against righty hitters, holding them to a .168 wOBA and a K rate over 40%. Lefties whiff just 17.9%, but their wOBA is only .248. His fastball is being thrown about 58% of the time and KC is ranked 25th against that pitch. Lopez’s version has a .168 wOBA, the most strikeouts of his mix, and a 26.1% whiff rate. His price is excellent compared to some of the other options on the slate, that’s for sure. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 Stacks 

I know the park isn’t great but my word are the Dodgers cheap for taking on a lefty with a 5.63 ERA and a 4.66 xFIP. Sammy Long is getting hammered by righty hitters with a 45.8% fly-ball rate, .368 wOBA, and a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.20. We can mix and match all of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock, and Chris Taylor. Long is throwing the fastball about 37% of the time against righties and all of those hitters are over a .390 wOBA and a .239 ISO against that pitch. On top of that, they all have at least a .353 wOBA and .204 ISO against lefties on the season. 

By appearances, Daniel Lynch of the Royals has been better, and in fairness, he’s not getting totally lit up. In August, his ERA was 2.39 but the wOBA was .318 and the xFIP was 4.75. I want a piece of the White Sox lineup against him even if it’s not a full-stack. Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu all have a wOBA over .390 this season against lefties and an ISO over .320. Those are big numbers and Vaughn is super cheap on top of it. Lynch throws his fastball almost 40% of the time and it’s giving up a .203 ISO with a 321-foot average distance. That trio makes an awful lot of sense. 

• Reds against Matt Boyd
• Brewers against Kwang Hyun Kim 
• Angels against Kolby Allard 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3

We’re back in action and we have 14 games to pick from! We have some choices up top, a very mediocre middle of the pack, and a super interesting punt. Let’s get right down to business in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 and forge our paths towards the green screens again! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I may not live in this range tonight, as I think every one of the options carries some risk. Freddy Peralta is coming off the IL and even though he wasn’t on it for an extended period, I’m not super trustworthy about his pitch count. He’s surpassed his career-high in innings as it is and the Brewers don’t have a lot of motivation to let him stray from a pitch count. If we get confirmation it’s all systems go, he would be my favorite. The price tag is super low for a pitcher who has a 34% K rate and the Cardinals lineup would play into his strength. I will be righty-heavy and Peralta owns the right side with a .234 wOBA, 40.1% K rate, and a 2.64 xFIP. Alex Manoah has some of the highest upsides on the slate but could easily score in the negatives as well. Oakland ranks second against the slider, which is a big red flag. If Manoah’s slider isn’t working, that’s an issue. His slider has the highest whiff rate and the most strikeouts so far for him, which makes this spot scary. 

Adam Wainwright and Nathan Eovaldi are fine options, but seem a hair pricey. Waino doesn’t get to pick on the Pirates in this start and the K rate for the season is under 23%. He also has a higher WHIP, xFIP, wOBA, and average against lefties. Milwaukee will have at least four in the lineup and it could be tough for Wainwright to have a true ceiling at this salary. For the Eovaldi part, his K rate is higher at 24.6% and he certainly gets a fairly soft matchup. Cleveland whiffs over 23% of the time against righties and are in the bottom half of the league in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP. They are also 17th against the curveball and that’s been his best pitch with the lowest wOBA and highest whiff rate. They also rank 18th against the fastball and that has the most strikeouts of any pitch. Eovaldi makes the most sense if you spend up, although it’s not my preferred path. 

Mid-Tier 

I have to assume we finally see Shohei Ohtani as chalk tonight. With the ace options uninspiring, Ohtani is going to take center stage and we’ve seen the field attack the Texas lineup relentlessly since the trade deadline. They are now typically righty-heavy with a projected six and that is what helps unlock the ceiling for Ohtani, in theory. He dominates the right side of the plate with a 35.4% K rate and a 2.03 FIP, to go along with a 0.83 FIP and a .218 wOBA. His splitter gets the deserved attention but his slider is no joke either with a 33.8% whiff rate and a .242 wOBA. Texas is just at a 21.9% K rate against righties since the deadline, but Ohtani can certainly get by that metric. 

He’s rarely in this article, but Kyle Gibson could pick up some steam as a popular option and I have to say, I get why. He gets a big-time upgrade as far as the park in Miami and he’s generated his best results against the right side of the plate. Gibson has gotten a 57.4% ground ball rate, a 20.7% K rate, a 1.06 WHIP, and a .250 wOBA. Not only is Miami second in ground ball rate against righties, but they are striking out over 25% of the time. Miami typically has six righties and the pitcher’s spot, so Gibson is well in play at this price. 

Honorable Mention 

Madison Bumgarner – He is a bit too pricey in my eyes, but I do think he could be quite a pivot away from Ohtani if you’re of that mindset. You could even pitch both players because Seattle loses the DH and they are projected to have four lefties in the lineup. MadBum has a 26.2% K rate against lefties and a 3.97 xFIP. Seattle is top-three in K rate against lefties so if there’s a spot for him to pay off this price…this rates as one of them. 

Punt Range 

After seeing Joe Ryan get rostered upwards of 50% recently even in GPP, I think the field is going to be interested in Glenn Otto at just $5,000. We have Coors and other big-name offensive stacks and Otto’s first start couldn’t have gone much better. He went five innings, struck out seven, and had a 0.36 FIP and 2.13 xFIP. The ground ball rate was 50% and the swinging-strike rate was a respectable 9.6%. Otto was sitting at a 24.5% K rate in the minors so he does have that ability and really the largest issue could be the Angels are third against the slider. He threw 30 each of the slider and four-seam but the slider had a 40% whiff rate. For the salary, all we need is 12-15 DK and LA is up to 11th in K rate against righty pitching. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 Stacks 

I mentioned Coors Field but we’re kicking things off out even further west because the Padres are letting Jake Arrieta pitch. Why they’re doing that, I haven’t the foggiest idea but the Astros are the late-night hammer to shoot us up the leaderboards. Arrieta is giving up a wOBA of at least .397 against each side of the plate so we can go after anyone we choose. They are very expensive but we can build a stack centered on the outfield because Arrieta is slightly worse against lefties. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley are all over a 3.65 wOBA or .150 ISO against righties. I’m willing to leave out Brantley because there’s another OF player I have my eyes on. I will also heavily consider Alex Bregman since he has a 15.2% K rate and his timing is getting back after his lengthy injury. 

If you’re inclined to roll with Ohtani/Otto at pitcher, you can still afford some of the Coors bats and I’m actually more excited for the Colorado side of things. Huascar Ynoa is reverse splits and is worse against righties with a 5.20 FIP and his K rate dips as well. The slider might be less effective in Coors and his fastball is still used 42% against righties, giving up a .222 ISO. Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers, C.J. Cron, and Sam Hilliard all have a wOBA over .350 against the fastball and Hilliard is at a .384 ISO. I bring him up because of his salary and he kills righty sliders with a .524 ISO and a 361-foot average distance. I’m willing to throw Brantley overboard to play Hilliard. That trio is also sitting at least at a .130 ISO and .294 wOBA against righties but Coors is the great equalizer. 

• Rays against Randy Dobnak
• Royals against Dallas Keuchel 
• Nationals against Rich Hill
• Yankees against John Means 
• Jays against Sean Manaea 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1

For a slate that has so many big names on it, I’m not thrilled with the options available to us. The calendar has flipped to September and that means teams can call up extra players. With expanded rosters, pitchers could have pretty short leashes at this point be it a workload concern or just not as effective as the team would like. It can be a frustrating time of the year but we press on in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 to lay our foundation for green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

So there are four big-name aces tonight but two of them can be discarded fairly quickly in my mind. Both Carlos Rodon and Chris Sale have pitch count concerns and that’s a no-fly zone for me at these price tags. Sale has not thrown more than 89 pitches in three starts (though the Sox really need a longer start badly) and Rodon was pulled at 67 pitches last time out. He’s already at a high inning count considering he pitched 42.1 innings in 2019 and 2020 combined. At five digits for each player, that’s an easy pass, especially when a certain righty is just $9,900. 

Alright, listen. I’m not perfect and I get plenty wrong. One thing I wouldn’t get wrong is pricing Gerrit Cole under $10,0000 when he’s had three straight starts scoring over 25 DK, and yet…here we are. Max Scherzer is on the slate and we’ll get there, but Cole is the smash play of the night. There are exactly zero reasons for him to be priced like this. The Angels are more strikeout-heavy than they have been in recent years at 24% and are projected for six righties. Cole’s K rate is higher against lefties at 39% but he’s holding righties to a 2.44 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, and a 30.4% K rate. He can whiff 10+ in any given start and should be one of the biggest favorites on the slate. 

It’s going to be interesting to the divide in popularity because realistically, Mad Max shouldn’t be $1,000 more than Cole. The latter should be priced up but if that drives everyone to just take Cole, do we get Scherzer at way less rostership than he should? It’s definitely possible even if it shouldn’t be. Scherzer has hit at least 23.9 DK in four of five starts with the Dodgers and has a 15.6% swinging-strike rate which is second among all starters. The Braves tend to be righty-heavy and that should unlock the strikeout ceiling for Scherzer as he boasts a 37.6% K rate against the right side. His slider has a 45.6% whiff rate, a .174 wOBA, and 45 strikeouts. If there’s a path for double ace, I’d love to take it. 

Aaron Nola is a fine play but in honesty, I only have eyes for Cole and/or Scherzer tonight. I’m more than willing to take that stand. 

Mid-Range 

It may be time to try our luck with Carlos Carrasco again tonight. After a tough first inning the last start, he settled in nicely and made it past five innings for the first time. He’s definitely had some poor luck so far as only one start has shown an xFIP over 4.32 and his xFIP in total is 3.60. That does not match the ERA of 6.94 in the least. Carrasco has a strand rate of just 55.6%, a hard-hit rate of 35.6%, and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate. The wOBA against righties looks poor, but Carrasco is suffering through a .364 BABIP against that side and the K rate is 24.5%. With Miami sitting in the top 10 in K rate against righties, there is some quiet upside. 

Well, there went that as the Mets game was PPD already. 

The loss of that Mets game really hurts the pitching tonight and we might be looking at a player like Drew Rasmussen. Boston is going to be without Xander Bogaerts tonight for sure and Rasmussen has some relatively strong metrics to back up this play. He’s slowly ramping up his pitch count and we could see over 60 tonight, along with his K rate of 26.5% on the year. That has come down a little bit as he’s been a starter but his xFIP has not been over 3.36 in any of the three. Both sides of the plate are under a .280 wOBA and he’s mostly fastball/slider. The whiff rate is over 26.5% on each pitch and carries basically all of his strikeouts. The matchup with Boston isn’t ideal, but he can make it work at this price. 

We’re in a real pickle here. There are no realistic options past Rasmussen and the rest of the mid-range has serious concerns. 

James Kaprielian – The K rate of 24.5% is certainly appealing against the Tigers, but there’s plenty of risks. He’s been worse outside of Oakland with a 1.77 HR/9, a 5.07 FIP, and a 4.72 xFIP. 

Max Fried – It’s the Dodgers again, although Morton came away fine. I just can’t justify that salary for the matchup. 

Steven Matz – I’d have a tough time here as well since Baltimore is better against lefties, but I can’t say Matz has awful metrics. His K rate is under 22% but he does have a 45.5% ground ball rate and just a 25.9% hard-hit rate. He may well end up being more in play than I would like.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 Stacks 

I’m looking to go double ace because this pitching slate is not good at all. If the Yankee lineup cooperates tonight, we can actually go with a hefty amount of the New York lineup with a Yankee sack. They face Packy Naughton, a lefty for the Angels who has not shown any strikeout ability. The Yankees hammer lefties and Aaron Judge, Kyle Higashioka, and Luke Voit should be the centerpieces. Since it’s a lefty and a day game after a night game, both Voit and Higgy should be in the lineup and those three are over a .365 wOBA and at least a .150 ISO. Naughton has only thrown five innings, so his pitch mix isn’t really reliable yet. I want Yankee righties in this spot. 

This might be a bit of a mishmash as far as the rest of the offensive players. We might be looking at 2/2 if we can get in four Yanks but two that really stand out are Nicky Lopez and Michael A. Taylor for the Royals. They are super cheap, Lopez continues to hit at a very high clip, and both hit lefties well. They both sit over a .305 wOBA and Logan Allen for Cleveland has struggled horribly outside of the last start. He’s throwing his fastball 42% of the time and both hitters are over a .325 wOBA against that pitch. Since both have stolen base upside, I’m willing to overlook some lack of power. 

• A’s against Wily Peralta
• Cleveland against Mike Minor 
• White Sox against Mitch Keller 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!