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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1

We are almost to the end of the regular season and we do get a full slate tonight although most teams have packed it in for the season. With that said, the list of starters will continue to be relatively short as we can focus on exactly who is important and who isn’t in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1

The bad news is there are not a lot of trustworthy arms tonight. The one that stands out the quickest is Clayton Kershaw. He and the Dodgers are clawing to stay out of the Wild Card spot and in his last start, Kershaw got smacked around. That’s not how he wants to go into the postseason so I fully expect him to throw 75-90 pitches and try to be in his best form. Kershaw is still using the slider as his primary pitch and if he qualified, it would be the highest-rated slider on FanGraphs. It just so happens that Milwaukee is 29th against that pitch and is 0.2 away from being dead last. That is not a good matchup for them tonight and they cannot move their seeding at all. The Brewers have also been seventh in K rate against lefties all year at 24% and Kershaw has a 30.5% K rate against righties with a 2.79 xFIP. He’s slated to face six righties and the pitcher spot and I’m willing to pay the premium. 

I would expect Kershaw to be chalky and that opens up a very interesting pivot in Sandy Alcantara. You could argue to play both but that is an expensive route to take and even though Miami doesn’t have a thing to play for, Alcantara is still pitching his typical workload. Philly could be eliminated by the time this game takes place but no matter what, Alcantara has been great this season. He’s also been in top form in Miami with a 2.95 xFIP, a 26.6% K rate, a 2.17 ERA, and a .235 wOBA. He has been worse against lefties on the year but a significant chunk of that has come from his road starts. The last start against the Phillies in Philly was rough but the first two generated at least 20 DK and had one over 30. Alcantara features a slider and changeup that both have a wOBA under .280 and a whiff rate over 30%. 

In that same game, Ranger Suarez should be very, very chalky again as well. DK did finally raise the price to what he deserved to be but he’s coming off a 40 DK point start. That’s not even mentioning the fact that Rich Hill was chalk last night and Suarez has been pitching much better than he has. Suarez is still rocking an elite combo of a 25.1% K rate and a 60.6% ground ball rate and that could not be better for DFS. We’re either getting points for the whiffs or the ball isn’t in the air to do a lot of damage. While his strikeout rate is higher against lefties at 31.4%, it’s still 22.8% against righties and the hard-hit rate is just 29.1%. The sinker and change are his main weapons with over 70 strikeouts and both are under a .260 wOBA. We could game stack this one in GPP. 

There are a bunch of talented pitchers that generally we like but face very difficult spots and I will not really be interested unless they draw a weird lineup. That list includes Shane McClanahan, Lance Lynn, Sean Manaea, and Nestor Cortes. McClanahan especially could see a shorter start with the Rays locked into the number one seed. I think there are two other potential plays in Marco Gonzales and Jose Suarez, two lefties in the same game. I don’t particularly like the salary for Gonzales but he’s just a hair under averaging 19 DK points in the past 10 games. The crafty veteran lefty draws an Angels lineup that has been in the bottom-eight of all of our offensive categories since the deadline. He is insanely risky at this salary because his xFIP against righties is 5.64 and not typically what we talk about. However, the Angels have been so bad and Gonzales has been so strong that he is worth a look. 

Suarez is a lot cheaper but there is not a lot of safety here since the Mariners are fighting and Suarez is just not a stable option. The K rate is 20.3% but the swinging-strike rate is 11.2% which is fairly high. Seattle is 17th and 27th against the curveball and changeup, which make up almost 50% of the pitch types for Suarez. Now the lineup is important for him because he is rough against lefties with a .405 wOBA and a 4.98 xFIP, while the Mariners are projected for three. If that’s all, the .269 wOBA against righties and a 1.07 WHIP is much more appealing so we would need to know what he’s looking at. It doesn’t hurt that Seattle is fourth in K rate against lefties, either. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1 Stacks 

I’m looking to afford the Kershaw/Suarez duo to start but I’m jamming in Blue Jays as well. They will get Thomas Eshelman as a long reliever and through 71 batters faced, he has a .427 wOBA, a 6.30 xFIP, and just a 7% K rate against the right side of the plate. He’s throwing a fastball almost half the time and Marcus Semien, George Springer, and Bo Bichette are in the top five of the team against that pitch. They also sit above a .340 wOBA and a .170 ISO. Springer and Semien are especially appealing with their ISO’s over .290 on the year and we know that if you can’t miss bats against the Jays, you’re not going to have much success. 

That means we need salary relief and we’re going to get in the Cubs. they’re always a risk because they whiff so much but at the same time, they have some hitters who have played well since the deadline like Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega, and Ian Happ. All of these hitters have a wOBA over .335 and Schwindel is at a .415 mark, in addition to all of them being over a .200 ISO. They’re going to start with Daniel Hudson but he likely doesn’t stick around long and then we’re into the bullpen. That trio is plenty cheap for their performance and only Happ has a K rate above 19%. I’ll roll with that to get the pitching I want and at least three Blue Jays bats. 

  • White Sox against Wily Peralta
  • Royals against John Gant 
  • Red Sox against Josh Rogers
  • Mets lefties against Huascar Ynoa 
  • Orioles against Steven Matz

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 10.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28

We are finally back in action since we have a good number of teams in action and contests worth playing! It’s the last week of the season so we have to preach caution this week. So many teams have nothing to play for and they are wild cards on the slate. We’re going to focus more on who has to continue to play hard instead of the tier system in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28 to set our paths to green!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28

Starters That Have to Play 

Here’s the good news – We have a lot of options from teams that can make the playoffs and I will not be playing anyone else tonight. The premier series as far as playoff implications have to be the Phillies/Braves series. With one wild card spot locked up from the NL West, the NL East likely only sends one team and the Braves are sporting a 2.5 game lead in the division. Not only is it a massive series, but both teams also send an ace to the mound in Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton. 

Despite an average start last time out for Wheeler, he’s been on point through 23.2 IP in September with a 1.14 ERA, a .256 wOBA, a 33.7% K rate, and a 2.02 FIP. His four-seam/slider combo has been the bread and butter for Wheeler with both pitches having a wOBA under .285 and a whiff rate over 26%. They all have accounted for 172 strikeouts so far this year. The Braves side is 13th against the fastball and 15th against the slider so it’s nothing special. Wheeler also has strong splits against either side of the plate, helping his appeal. Lastly, Wheeler has faced this team four times and has three starts above 28 DK with two over 39. He had one stumble for 5.9 DK points but he’s easily one of the better options on the slate from any angle. 

Morton could be argued to be in an even better spot. Historically, he’s been worse against lefties and that would worry me since the Phillies are projected to play five of them. However, this year has been different since lefties only have a .266 wOBA, a 3.14 FIP, and a 3.28 xFIP. The K rate is what jumps out sitting at 31.3% and the curve has been the main weapon for Morton. It has a .180 wOBA, 121 strikeouts, and a whopping 40.4% whiff rate. That’s fairly ridiculous for a primary pitch. Philly does sit 12th against the curveball but I’m not going to let that one metric stop me. Morton knows what’s at stake and should bring his A-game tonight. 

The next stop is out West but these two pitchers aren’t facing each other. Walker Buehler and Logan Webb are pitching for the Dodgers and Giants respectively and both teams need to win. Yes, they have clinched playoff spots but one of them has to host a Wild Card game and that is not a fun proposition. One loss ends the season so the division is extremely important to each team. Buehler could be in the tougher spot but the Padres have nothing left to play for and frankly are the largest disappointment of the season. If there’s a worry about Buehler, it’s the K rate since the start of the month. It’s sitting at 14.8% which is dreadful. Both the FIP and xFIP are over 4.50 and the wOBA is over .391. For me, I’d just as soon go Wheeler who is in excellent recent form at this price range. 

The reason the Webb is in the second tier in my eyes is the matchup. Granted, the D-Backs aren’t very good overall on the offensive side of things, to say the least. They are 29th or 30th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS on the season with a 24.9% K rate to boot. The red flag is Webb is a good bit worse against lefties with a 3.26 xFIP, .298 wOBA, and the K rate drops down to 22.5%. One of the main reasons would appear to be the lack of slider usage against lefties. Webb has thrown 566 of them and only 196 have been thrown to the left side of the plate. It has a 46.3% whiff rate and a .181 wOBA so the D-Backs projecting for seven lefties would be a tough spot for a ceiling game, at least on paper. Webb does display a 30.8% K rate at home so he’s not totally off the table, but I do wonder about the ceiling. 

The player that I would consider in the high end as well would be Chris Sale. Boston is in full desperation mode after getting swept by the Yankees in Fenway Park. With the Rays clinching the division, the Yanks, Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, and A’s are all fighting for two wild-card spots. The five teams are separated by just three games so their starters are going to be in our sights for most of the week. Anyways, Sale has been fairly strong through his 35 IP to this point with a 26.4% K rate, a 13.1% swinging-strike rate, and a hard-hit rate of 22.7%. Baltimore has a 23% K rate but does have some pop with the 10th highest ISO. Sale is throwing the changeup about 22% of the time and that is not fooling anyone. It’s getting clobbered for a .466 wOBA and it’s flirting with a .470 batting average. Baltimore is 25th against the change but there is the risk with Sale, even given the need from Boston for a big start. 

The Cardinals are on one of the longest winning streaks….well, ever and Adam Wainwright gets the ball tonight. Now, the Brewers have mostly had his number since, in four starts, he’s had three scores under 20 DK. While Waino can pop up with big scores in any game, his K rate is under 22% on the year and the 8.2% swinging-strike rate is a far cry from some of the other players on the slate. I want to keep him in mind because the Brewers could throw out a terrible lineup that could change the whole equation. 

Lastly, we have Jameson Taillon, Hyun Jin Ryu, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi going to the hill. Bassitt would typically be the clear favorite but he might have a pitch limit no higher than 65-70 pitches. I’m still a little tempted at the price point because he’s been fantastic when he’s been active. The K rate is over 25% and he’s been at his best against lefty hitters. They only have a .262 wOBA and a 26.3% K rate against that side while Seattle is projected for five lefties and has the fourth-highest K rate in baseball against righties at 25.2%. Maybe we get some idea about the length sometime during the day and can go from there. 

The battle of Taillon and Ryu might be fun for real life, but for fantasy purposes, I will have nothing to do with either pitcher. Ryu has been hammered in his last five starts and is coming off an IL stint. I would expect him to be on a very short leash against a powerful Yankees offense. Typically you’d play Taillon against a righty-heavy lineup but are you pitching him in Toronto against the Blue Jays? I’m not either. Kikuchi could tempt me but since the A’s rebuilt the offense on the fly at the deadline, they are top 15 in all of our offensive categories including 10th in wRC+ and 12th in ISO to go with an 18% K rate. I think there’s a very strong case to live in the upper range tonight. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28 Stacks 

One of the reasons I can live in the high end is because I will happily eat the chalk tonight which will surely be the Rockies in Coors. Lefty Patrick Corbin has gotten blown up all year and no Colorado hitter is more expensive than $4,600 on DK. Just let that sink in. 

Corbin has allowed 23 home runs on his slider and sinker combo and has a .388 wOBA with a 6.27 FIP against righty hitters. Give me all of C.J. Cron, Brendan Rodgers, and Trevor Story in this spot. They all have a wOBA over .385 on the season and an ISO of at least .279 against lefty pitching. Cron is 19th against the fastball and 26th against the slider among all hitters this season. He’s leaving the yard tonight without a doubt. We can kick in a catcher like Elias Diaz as well with a .205 ISO and a .323 wOBA. The first trio are among the top six on the Rockies against the fastball as well. 

We can also turn to the Boston offense because they are in Camden and face a bad lefty as well. Bruce Zimmermann starts for the Orioles with a 5.40 FIP, 1.90 HR/9, and a .352 wOBA against the right side. He’s using the four-seam/changeup combo and the standouts include Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and even lefty Rafael Devers since he’s the best changeup hitter on the team. Zimmermann allows a .360 wOBA against lefties as well, and this stack correlates well with the main trio from the Rockies that we love so much. Of course, Xander Bogaerts is fully in play as well but I do prefer Story. 

  • Twins against Tyler Alexander 
  • White Sox against Reds pitching 
  • Astros against Michael Wacha 
  • Nationals against Kyle Freeland 
  • Tigers against Charlie Barnes 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25

It looks like we have the normal Saturday split slate with nine games in the evening and five in the afternoon, which means plenty of MLB action today! That also means we have a whole lot to get into so let’s get moving in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 to layout our paths to green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Early 

The early slate is fairly gross for pitching. We have strong pitchers but the matchups really limit what to expect for multiple players, including Framber Valdez, Sean Manaea, Nestor Cortes, and Sandy Alcantara. To be frank, the best path for pitching surely seems to be eating the presumed chalk in Shane McClanahan and Ranger Saurez. Let’s kick it off with the young lefty for the Rays, as McClanahan boasts a K rate of 27.9% and a massive swinging-strike rate of 15.1%. That’s higher than Gerrit Cole, who sits fifth in baseball for context. The slider and curveball mix for him make up about 50% of his pitches and both have a whiff rate over 40% and wOBA’s under .260. The pitch that has given him the most issues is his fastball with a wOBA well over .320 and a whiff rate of just 19%. That gets mitigated by the Marlins ranking 29th against fastballs this season. They also lead the league in K rate against lefty pitching at 27.8% this season and the spot just makes too much sense. 

For Saurez, the Buccos don’t carry the same strikeout upside against lefties, sitting at just 20.5% since the deadline but they are 24th or worse in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+ and OBP since that point. Saurez also carries a hefty 25.1% K rate himself and a 59.3% ground ball rate. He should face almost all righties but only has a .275 wOBA and a 22.6% K rate against that side. I will point out that the xFIP is 4.04 but the ground ball rate is still over 54%. If the Pirates happen to play a couple of lefties we don’t expect, the ceiling rises for Saurez with a 32% K rate against that side and a .155 wOBA. His main two pitches as far as strikeouts are his sinker/changeup combo and the Pirates should help there, sitting last against the fastball and 22nd against the changeup. I feel pretty strongly that we can eat the pitching chalk and just get different in another spot. Also, any concerns with Saurez vanish at this salary yet again. 

If you wanted to take a shot at anyone else, I guess it would be Alcantara. Tampa can strike out against righties but my fear there is Alcantara is worse against lefties with a 3.93 xFIP and he’s also the largest investment in terms of salary. Past that, I will eat the chalk and call it a day with the blow-up potential among the other candidates. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Early Stacks 

We are likely to eat more chalk but the Yankee prices are too good to pass up on a five-game slate and I’m looking right to the heart of this lineup. Nick Pivetta has a wOBA over .310 against each side of the plate and against lefties the xFIP goes up to 4.63. His fly-ball rates are also over 40%, a bad mix when facing the Yanks. Pivetta is throwing his fastball right about 50% against each side as well and that’s where he’s going to find trouble. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo, and Giancarlo Stanton all have ISO’s of at least .237 and wOBA’s over .350 against righty fastballs. The Judge/Stanton/Gallo trio really stands out against that pitch and Pivetta allows a 46.2% hard-hit rate and a 340-foot average distance. They all have at least a .200 ISO on the season as well. Wheels up!

Now, we’re eating some chalk so far so we need to take some calculated chances to counterbalance it. Maybe this will be popular and if it is, you can go with more of a two-player and two-player stack with the four (or five) man Yanks but the Phillies correlate very well with the New York bats. Wil Crowe has a wOBA over .350 against each side and his fastball gets crushed with a .366 ISO and a 325-foot average distance. Freddy Galvis, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorious fit perfectly and they all have an ISO over .130 on the year. That’s not super ideal, but Crowe is not a good pitcher and the Pirates bullpen is even worse right now. They do all have a wOBA over .325 against righty fastballs. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Evening 

Note – Corbin Burnes is pitching tonight so we can just refer to yesterday’s article for his breakdown. The only difference is now he’s $10,600, which is FAR more palatable to build a lineup around him. I’m actually annoyed because Burnes being over $12,000 actually forced you into a decision. Now, not so much. 

Robbie Ray kind of let us down last time out but he was so popular that it didn’t matter much. I get that it’s super frustrating when you pay up for a pitcher to get smacked. However, Ray has been absolute money and I really wonder if the field just moves to Burnes. I love the spot for Burnes, but if Ray is half the popularity, Ray is a must-play in GPP. He has a 32.8% K rate and is top 10 in swinging-strike rate. Minnesota is average in K rate against lefties at 23.3% and the only scary metric is fifth against the fastball. At the same time, Ray’s fastball is rated the sixth-best in FanGraphs ratings and has been a major strength for him this season. He’ll face almost all righties but has a 32.9% K rate, a 3.29 xFIP, and a wOBA under .290 against that side. 

Normally we want as many righty hitters in the lineup to play Lance Lynn, but three of the projected four lefties for Cleveland carry a 27% K rate or higher against righties this season. Lynn also throws a cutter 30% of the time for his second-most strikeouts and Cleveland is dead last against that pitch and 18th against fastballs. This is a strong spot for Lynn and the five righties in the Cleveland lineup should struggle as Lynn has only allowed a .230 wOBA, 29.9% K rate, and a 3.29 xFIP against that side of the plate. I’d rather play him than Clayton Kershaw because I don’t think Kershaw goes for 10 strikeouts under 80 pitches again. 

This slate is not great for pitching either but I think the wild card may well be Tyler Anderson. He’s not a player we’ve generally chased and it can be scary coming off a big game, but the K rate is right under 20% and the Angels have been dreadful against lefties lately. They’re not striking out a ton since the deadline at under 22% but they also are 27th or lower in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. They jump up to 20th in ISO but that’s about it. Three projected lefties for the Angels wouldn’t hurt either since Anderson has a .263 wOBA against that side while the K rate is 21% against righties. The Angels are also 24th against the fastball and fourth against the cutter, which are the main strikeout pitches for Anderson. The cutter data is the concern, but there is a lot of other factors going his way. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Evening Stacks 

We need some cheap hitter and let’s stop in Baltimore to grab some Orioles. Jordan Lyles is taking the ball for Texas and we could have a four-man stack IF Anthony Santander is back in the lineup. Even if not, the trio of Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays makes a ton of sense. Lyles has gotten smashed by each side of the plate and he uses the fastball around 40% of the time. Mullins, Mountcastle, and Hays all have an ISO over .245 and a wOBA over .350 against that pitch. On the season, they all sit over a .320 wOBA as well. 

The Brewers face a lefty and they fit in nicely with the Orioles if we look at the combo of Manny Pina, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, and Eduardo Escobar. All of these hitters are over a .325 wOBA on the season against lefties and they sport at least a .170 ISO. Rich Hill is using the fastball 48% of the time against righties and it’s giving up a .220 ISO. All of those hitters also have an ISO over .185 and a wOBA over .310 against that pitch, meaning they are too cheap for the spot and we can combine these teams for some very cheap power potential. 

  • Blue Jays against Charlie Barnes 
  • Giants against Jon Gray 
  • White Sox against Eli Morgan 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24

We are back in action for this packed 14 game slate and a huge thank you needs to be extended to Brian for covering an extra day this week. He is the GOAT and I will not be accepting questions at this time. We have some big-name arms on the mound tonight so let’s see where we’re heading in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24

I’m fascinated to see what the field does in this start for Gerrit Cole. He got destroyed in his last start against Cleveland, and heading into Boston doesn’t scream “get right”. Cole has been difficult to figure out this year. He’s of course capable of throwing for 30+ DK points but he’s had his fair share of blowups as well. The K rate on the season is over 34% and the swinging-strike rate of 14.8% is fifth in baseball. He is slated to only face three lefties, which on paper limits Cole’s ceiling. The K rate is almost 40% against lefties while it’s just under 30% against the right side. He faced them two straight turns in July and in the first game, he cleared 35 DK while the second game saw him only score 16.5. I’m mostly going to base my Cole exposure to the field, so if he’s low rostered he would be much more appealing in GPP. 

I would certainly expect that Corbin Burnes is going to be far more chalky with the softer matchup and far better metrics. His FIP is under 2.00 and the xFIP is just 2.31 to go along with a 35.5% K rate overall. Now, he is slightly worse against the left side of the plate and he should see five of them in the Mets lineup. Still, they rank 23rd against the cutter and the worse side includes a .250 wOBA, 34.6% K rate, 1.55 FIP, and a 2.15 xFIP. Don’t let the splits get you too worried and you can eat the chalk without much of an issue. After all, the Mets rank 19th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+ against righties since the trade deadline. 

Edit – The Burnes section was written before I saw the price. $12,400 is a lot to pay so it’s possible that he’s not as chalky as I suspected. 

The strikeouts have been trending up for Cleveland and this could be a good spot for Dylan Cease to take advantage of. Since the deadline, Cleveland ranks ninth in K rate and in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching (someone tell Cole those metrics). Cease is going to give up a run or two but his K rate is over 31.5% and stays relatively stagnant against each side of the plate. Cleveland is also 23rd against the fastball and that’s over 50% of the mix for Cease. I’ve always had a blind spot with him this season that he has always felt overpriced but his production says otherwise. We can gripe he gives up a few too many runs but the K potential is very real and it’s hard to argue with the $9,000 price tag. 

In another edition of pitchers I rarely play, Jose Berrios makes a lot of sense tonight. Minnesota is in the top-eight in K rate against righties since the deadline and Berrios is firmly over 25% for his K rate. The Minnesota lineup would offer what we want when playing Berrios as well since they are scheduled to have six righties in the lineup. The former Twin has destroyed that side of the plate for a .239 wOBA, .194 average, 3.70 xFIP, and a 23.2% K rate. His Hard-hit rate drops down to 26% and the ground ball rate jumps up to 47.1%, both of which are far better than the lefty numbers. The Twins are bottom 10 against the curveball and the lone fear (past it just being Berrios), is they are a top-five team against fastballs. 

It’s certainly not my favorite spot since Washington has been so pesky since the deadline, but Sonny Gray deserves a look. The Nationals should be loaded with lefties and that should unlock a ceiling for Gray. The K rate jumps up to 30.7% against that side of the plate and the wOBA is just .273 with a 3.29 xFIP. Washington is also 19th against the curve and 11th against the changeup, which makes up about 40% of the mix for Gray. Don’t mistake this matchup for a cakewalk. Since the deadline, the Nats are 12th or higher in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS. Gray has a ceiling and also has plenty of risks. Right in this tier, I would expect Kyle Gibson is going to be very popular under $8,000 against the Pirates. I’d be careful with that and only play him in cash. Gibson has a .325 wOBA and a K rate under 19% against lefties and the Bucs are projected for six. 

Lastly, we can gamble with Logan Gilbert at such a cheap price against the Angels. He is wildly inconsistent but the ceiling is there in spades for this salary. Since the deadline, the Angels are dead last in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and they are striking out over 25% of the time. I still believe that the young gun is using the fastball too much, as it varies between 55-65% in any given start but LA helps with that as well because they are 24th against that pitch this year. If he gets the projected lineup, that will help as well since it should have five lefties. Gilbert has a lower wOBA, xFIP, and the fly-ball rate goes down by almost 10% against lefties. The range of outcomes is wide, but the potential is sky-high. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24 Stacks 

It’s a day that ends in Y so we’re going after the Rays as usual. The spot is phenomenal against Edward Cabrera, who has not figured out lefties at the major league level. Through 48 batters faced, he’s giving up a .333 average, .485 wOBA, 9.44 FIP, 6.23 xFIP, and only has a K rate of 12.5%. He’s using a fastball around 35% of the time and Brandon Lowe is their best lefty fastball hitter. He and Austin Meadows lead in ISO at .291 and then we can use a punt like Brett Phillips or Kevin Kiermaier, whoever is in the lineup. Don’t forget hitters like Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle too in stacks because they are both over a .340 wOBA and .170 ISO. 

With most of our Rays targets under $4,500, we’re going to have some flexibility in our other stack as well. Alex Wood should likely only throw around 50 pitches for the Giants but the Rockies are incredibly cheap in Coors. The fastball has been the issue for Wood and C.J. Cron hammers that pitch, sitting in the top 15 in the league. He’s also destroying lefties with a .413 wOBA and a .283 ISO. I’m looking at Trevor Story, Elias Diaz, and even a player like Sam Hilliard or Garrett Hampson to round everything out. I’d love to play Brendan Rodgers, but I’m not going to give up Lowe. 

  • Blue Jays against Bailey Ober 
  • Phillies against Miguel Yajure
  • Rangers against Alexander Wells 
  • Dodgers against Humberto Castellanos

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21

The Tuesday slate is smaller than normal and our pitcher pool looks like it’s going to be very small as well. I’m not sure there is a pitcher under $8,300 that we should be looking at but let’s go to work in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21

It really looks like Brandon Woodruff is going to be the chalk tonight and that’s not exactly a bad thing. The other high-salary options are tough sledding. Kevin Gausman has seen his performance dip, Julio Urias is in Coors Field and possibly on a pitch count, Alek Manoah has been up and down, and Marcus Stroman is expensive for his K rate. Woodruff is drawing arguably the best spot against the Cardinals and even though Woodruff is slightly worse against the right side of the plate, it isn’t anything crazy that we need to worry about. The “worst” side equates to a 2.98 xFIP, 28.3% K rate, 45.9% ground ball rate, and just a .263 wOBA. If that’s the worse he gets, sign me up. His four-seam has 107 strikeouts on the season with a .257 wOBA allowed and the Cards are 27th against that pitch this season. 

Perhaps the answer if you spend up is Jose Urquidy. The K rate is weak for a pitcher of this salary at 21.8% but the Angels are projected to play five lefties in this lineup. That would be awesome for Urquidy since he has a .236 wOBA, 22.8% K rate, 0.85 WHIP, and a 25% hard-hit rate. His changeup has been a massive weapon with a .201 wOBA and a 32.1% whiff rate and he uses that as his main secondary pitch against lefties. The Angels are ranked 20th against the change on the season and he would be my favorite pairing with Woodruff if you go high. 

The mid-range does offer two options, neither of which are slam dunks but they are interesting. Eduardo Rodriguez has been one of the unluckiest pitchers if you look at the 3.46 FIP and 3.48 xFIP because the 5.00 simply doesn’t match. His hard-hit rate is 27.4%, the ground ball rate is 42%, and the swinging-strike rate is 11.5%. Almost everything in the profile would suggest that he’s a quality pitcher. The Mets are projected to play three lefties which bump E-Rod’s K appeal since he has a 33.1% K rate. The Mets have not handled lefties very well this year, sitting in the bottom-eight in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, and slugging. They also strike out the ninth-highest rate at 23.7% so there is potential here. 

We saw last night that Nestor Cortes carried some popularity and I expect Jordan Montgomery to do the same. It could be even higher because last night the field had Ranger Suarez and tonight does not offer that same punt. Montgomery lives on his changeup and curveball and Texas is in the bottom-five against both pitches. That pairing also has combined for 109 strikeouts and neither pitch has a wOBA over .229. Everything that we talked about with Texas facing lefties goes the exact same for tonight and I believe Montgomery is the lowest we can feel good about. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21 Stacks 

We’re going right back to Houston because they remain too cheap for facing a sub-par lefty in Packy Naughton. He does generate ground balls but his K rate is under 15% and that’s not going to work against the Astros. Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa all sit over a .360 wOBA and have at least a .150 ISO. Bregman and Gurriel hammer the fastball and slider as well, which makes up 70% of Naughton’s mix against righty hitters. They have at least a .463 ISO against the fastball and a wOBA over .366 against the slider. If Jose Siri makes the lineup again as well, we can continue to utilize him since DK simply won’t move him from minimum salary. He surely won’t lead off again but for $2,000 it doesn’t matter that much. 

We’re going to need to see lineups but I want to go with some Dodgers lefties. It’s possible to have all of this that we’ve discussed because hitters like Corey Seager and Gavin Lux are massively underpriced for Coors. I would be willing to go with a player like Jose Altuve if it meant getting Seager in over Correa. Antonio Senzatela gets beat up by lefties with a .336 wOBA and only a 14.4% K rate. I will point out that the ground ball rate for Senzatela is strong at 52.9% but the Dodgers have the third-lowest ground ball rate as a team in the league. Lux has been awesome lately and it wasn’t long ago when he was considered one of the best prospects in baseball. Seager has a .355 wOBA. I’d love to fit Max Muncy, but let’s see what the lineups bring us. 

  • Jays against Drew Rasmussen
  • Brewers against Jake Woodford 
  • Yankees against Texas 
  • Cubs against Griffin Jax 
  • Mariners against Paul Blackburn 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20

We are back for the seven-game slate that Monday brings us and we have some pretty strong options, even if they might be a bit limited. Of the 14 pitchers available, we might have only 4-5 to focus on in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20 so let’s get to work! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20

Pitching anyone against the Rays as a general rule isn’t the best idea, especially when the pitcher is a lefty. Robbie Ray is the exception to that rule and he just hung over 40 DK points against this same offense. It hurts them that Wander Franco is out and the bottom of this lineup offers strikeouts. Six projected starters have a K rate over 25% this season against lefties so even if Rays gives up a run or two, he can make up for it. Ray is also third in the swinging-strike rate at 15.8% and fourth in K rate overall at 33.1%. On this slate, he has the highest ceiling on paper and is a contender for the AL Cy Young (especially after Gerrit Cole got demolished Sunday). The K rate is stagnant across either handedness and his slider boasts a whiff rate over 45% on the season. Tampa is seventh against that pitch but also ranks at -3.6 for their FanGraphs rating. 

If you’re willing to roll the dice, Freddy Peralta is a risk/reward choice. He looked all the way back in his past start and whiffed nine hitters but he also threw only 71 pitches. In the previous start, he hit 81 so I believe the limit is likely around 85 but on paper, it’s a great spot. We want him against a lot of righty hitters since he sports a 39.2% K rate against them compared to a (still very good) 29.9% K rate against lefties. His xFIP against righties is down to 2.83 and the wOBA is .223 while the Cards typically play 6-7 righties every night. You do need some efficiency in this spot which can be spotty with Peralta but he did just flash his upside against the Tigers. 

Once you get below $9,000, things get interesting. We have both Sean Manaea and Nestor Cortes in spots that make a bunch of sense on paper. For Manaea, he’s been wildly inconsistent lately and took a step backward against the Royals in his last start. Before that, he had back-to-back games where he struck out nine hitters and went seven innings. Seattle has some poor metrics against lefty pitching, sitting 26th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, 26th in OPS, and has a 25% K rate. His sinker has a whiff rate over 25% and 107 strikeouts while Seattle is 28th against fastballs. 

For Cortes, he’s now thrown 79.2 IP and racked up a K rate of 27.3% with a walk rate of 7.2%. We’ve talked before about Texas not striking out a lot against lefties since the deadline but they’re around the bottom-eight in all the offensive categories. hey also have the 10th highest ground ball rate which is good because Cortes has a fly-ball rate of 49.5%. His swinging-strike rate is 10% which is fine but it does make you take notice that his stuff is not overwhelming with a fastball sitting at around 90 MPH. His price is more than fair and we’ve seen the Yankees allow him over 90 pitches routinely now. 

Now we get into the player that is likely chalk in Ranger Suarez. We’ve been preaching all year that the Orioles are more dangerous against the left side (look at Robbie Ray in his last start against Baltimore) but I’m not sure I can mount a strong fade argument at this salary. We simply don’t get a 25.4% K rate with a 3.52 xFIP very often at this price point. Suarez is now sitting at 84 IP and the ERA is 1.50, which is due to regress by the xFIP. Still, his ground ball rate is elite at 60.9% and his changeup has a whiff rate of 40.7%. Suarez is throwing that pitch about 25% of the time while Baltimore is 25th against it on the season. 

Finally, we have to talk about the newest member of the show – Shane Baz. This kid has got “it” with a fastball that can touch triple-digits without much of an issue, a plus slider, and he added a changeup as well. 



He logged 46 IP in AAA this season, racking up a 36% K rate, a walk rate of just 6.2%, a WHIP of 0.85, and an ERA of 1.76 backed by a 2.99 xFIP. He’s under $7,000 and on just about any day, I would say let’s give him a shot right out of the jump. 

He pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays. 

That’s a big issue as there are very few offenses that are as dangerous as the Jays. They are tied for the lowest K rate in baseball against righty pitching and is either first or second in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS on the season. I honestly wouldn’t go here unless you’re playing a few lineups because the Rays are likely to treat him with kid gloves. He does line up to face Miami later this week, so perhaps we just show some patience and play him in that spot. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20 Stacks 

It seems pretty simple to stack up the Atlanta Braves as a late-night hammer and that’s where I’m looking. Arizona not only has one of the worst bullpens in baseball but they are pitching Humberto Mejia, a righty who has a wOBA over .440 against lefties and an xFIP over 5.00 against righties. He’s only struck out righties 15.2% of the time through his career (only 46 batters faces, to be fair) and that’s not where you want to be facing Atlanta. They feature a premier punt in Eddie Rosario, who hit for the cycle yesterday but also is hitting .357 over his past 10 games with a 1.293 OPS. That helps us afford the big-name batters like Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, and Dansby Swanson can all be mixed in. These hitters all handle the fastball and sit over a .325 wOBA and a least a .200 ISO against righties this season. 

If we play Suarez at pitcher, we can potentially fit the Brewers now as well. They draw Jake Woodford who has struggled mightily against lefties with a .392 wOBA, a 1.88 HR/9, and a 5.24 FIP. The sinker/four-seam pairing makes up about 60% of his mix and they both have a wOBA over .320. Kolten Wong and Eduardo Escobar stand out while Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez are good additions, even though Yelich isn’t what he used to be and Narvaez is pricey. The good news is all of these four are in the positives against the fastball and they all have a wOBA of at least .330 and an ISO of at least .178 except for Yelich. 

  • Astros against Jamie Barria
  • A’s against Tyler Anderson 
  • D-Backs lefties against Huascar Ynoa 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18

Saturday brings us some split slate action and before we get into that, we have to shout out our man Matt Vecchio. This man is printing money over in NASCAR and is just wildly knowledgeable about the sport. He guided me to a top 30 finish and all I know about NASCAR is the cars go fast, Ricky Bobby-style. Do yourself a favor and get on board! Now we can talk about the six and eight-game slates in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 and find our paths to green!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 – Afternoon 

It doesn’t matter where he’s pitching, Max Scherzer is an elite option. He has somehow found a whole new level as a Dodger. Mad Max can smell a championship and in eight starts, he’s struck out at least six hitters and made it through five innings in every single one. The ERA is 0.88 and he has 72 strikeouts over that time. I’m simply not fading that. His seasonal metrics remain elite with a K rate over 35%, a swinging-strike rate inside the top five at 16.4%, and everything has gotten better in Dodger blue. You just play him and count the strikeouts and on a six-game slate with no other realistic ace options, it’s even harder to pivot away. 

Mad Max is going to be insane levels of chalk because of the 11 other options, I’m not sure many are good. The only other two that I think have pathways to succeed are Luis Gil and Nick Pivetta. I know that skips over Sonny Gray but I’m just not on board with him against the Dodgers. They have had their issues and Luis Castillo smoked them last night, but that puts the Dodgers one day closer to going off. 

Anyways, let’s talk about Gil. He’s only made five starts and totaled 25 innings in the majors so we still don’t have a strong track record to fall back on. It’s noteworthy that the 4.76 xFIP is a good deal higher than the 2.88 ERA he’s managed so far. The good news is he’s also sported a 29.6% K rate and that can help mitigate any damage he allows. The swinging-strike rate is 12.8% and he’s mostly just used his four-seam and slider so far. They both have a whiff rate over 28.5% and the four-seam is sitting at about 96 MPH. There are some fly-ball tendencies since both sides of the plate are over 50% and the walk rate is very high at over 13%. Cleveland is at a 23.9% K rate this season and just a 7.5% walk rate, so even with his warts, Gil is in play. 

Playing Pivetta isn’t going to be super comfortable either but the matchup does help. Chris Sale struggled to strike hitters out last night but Baltimore is much worse against righty pitching, so that helps. They are inside the top 10 in K rate at 24.6% and are no better than 20th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Pivetta is another player that I don’t expect to just totally cruise but he is better against the right side of the plate and he carries a 26% K rate into this spot. The WHIP, wOBA, HR/9, and xFIP are all lower for Pivetta against righties, and Baltimore is projected to send out seven. It’s also nice to see the Orioles are -10 in FanGraphs rating against the slider and Pivetta uses that pitch a lot against righties. It has a .325 wOBA but that’s not a strength for Baltimore, leaving Pivetta as my likely SP2. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 Afternoon Stacks 

It’s time to play “how many Rays can I fit with my pitchers of choice” i.e. everyday life for Brian. They dare Tarik Skubal…sort of. Detroit has limited him to 50 and 49 pitches in his last two starts so I’m not as concerned with the matchup here for Tampa as far as Skubal goes. They’ll get the bullpen so I like fitting in lefties like Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows because some may shy away from the lefty versus lefty matchup. Punts like Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips could really help fit Scherzer and then you can roll from there, depending on the Tampa lineup. This isn’t our usual pitch type breakdown but I’ll take Rays against Detroit every day. 

I’m mostly building the Tampa stack around my Rockies stack because they have the tools to smash Patrick Corbin. My first two in the lineup without fail are C.J. Cron and Trevor Stroy. They are perfect compliments to the Rays because Wander Franco is on the IL and the Rays don’t have a “must-play” first baseman. Corbin throws the sinker about 37% of the time against righties and it’s giving up a .217 ISO and 45% hard-hit rate. Story and Cron wreck that pitch with ISO’s of .352 and .414 along with wOBA’s of .483 and .607. They are also over a .385 wOBA and .265 ISO against lefties on the season. If you don’t want to go Lowe, Brendan Rodgers is the best statistical lefty masher in Colorado and you could run that trio and roll Tampa around them. 

  • Red Sox against Zac Lowther
  • Tigers against Ryan Yarbrough 
  • Blue Jays against Bailey Ober 
  • Twins against Steven Matz 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 – Evening 

Ace Tier 

It’s going to be hard to not lock in Corbin Burnes. He almost threw a no-hitter the last time on the mound and the last time he saw this Cubs lineup, he whiffed 15 hitters across eight of the most dominant innings of the season. Burnes has everything we want out of an ace. He has both sides of the plate under a .245 wOBA, the xFIP is no higher than 2.45 against either side, both sides whiff at least 34% and the WHIP is no higher than one. He should be one of the front runners for NL Cy Young, even if he likely doesn’t win it. The Cubs offense has been peskier than perception since the deadline as they are 15th in ISO but the K rate is flirting with 30%. I’m simply not going to pass that up. 

If we can find the offense to make things work, we have to talk about my main dude Lance Lynn as well. At least that was my train of thought before I saw DK has him under $9,000, which I will gladly take. I will not fade Burnes for him but would love to go double ace because Lynn should be facing a righty-heavy lineup and that’s been a big boost for him this season. Everything in his fastball-heavy arsenal plays better against the right side since he has a .227 wOBA, 31.2% K rate, 2.71 FIP, and just a 25% hard-hit rate. Texas is just at a 22.9% K rate since the deadline but they also rate 27th against the fastball and 28th against the cutter. With Lynn throwing a sinker, four-seam, or cutter almost 92% of the time, this checks the boxes for the big guy. 

Yusei Kikuchi has been a tough guy to be on the right side of this season, to be sure. The Royals don’t offer us a lot of strikeouts against lefties since they sit under 20% for the season but they do have the sixth-highest ground ball rate at 45.1%. Kikuchi matches that with a 49.4% rate himself and the Royals have not hit lefties well since the deadline. I grant you, the K rate is the best in the majors in that span but they are no higher than 13th in OPS, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, and they are 29th in ISO. If Kikuchi can keep the ball in the yard and on the ground, he could get deep into this game with 4-6 strikeouts and still make it work. His cutter has been his wort pitch by results with a .367 wOBA but the Royals are only 22nd against that pitch. 

The last pitcher in consideration (and I promise that I’m not trying to skimp, these slates just aren’t great for pitching, gang. There are some tough matchups on the board and I’m happy to take a stand) is Lance McCullers. We quickly touched on this in Friday’s article but McCullers wound up starting tonight instead. Lefties can get to him but Arizona is also striking out at the seventh-highest rate at 24.7%. His curveball surprisingly only has 45 strikeouts and he throws it almost exclusively to lefties. That helps explain why his K rate against lefties is 25.3% and it is 29.4% against righties. I don’t think he has the highest ceiling but I don’t have a big issue past I’ll just play Lynn. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 Stacks 

It’s a bit of a weird slate because there aren’t a lot of pitchers that I want, but there aren’t a lot of pitchers that scream go all-in on stacking against them. Where I land is in GPP, let’s take a shot at getting in on the Yu Darvish regression. He has a wOBA over .300 since July and he’s using the cutter the most against righty hitters at around 38%. It just so happens that A. His cutter has given up 10 home runs and has a .360 wOBA and B. there’s a trio of Cardinals that smash righty cutters. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill are all priced like Darvish has been pitching well lately and all of them have at least a .352 wOBA and .222 ISO against that pitch type. O’Neill especially stands out with a .504 wOBA and 68.4% (!) hard-hit rate. 

After that, I’m looking at some cheaper Angels since the A’s are throwing Daulton Jeffries and he has a 4.88 xFIP, which could be exploitable. The strikeout upside is negligent at 13.8% and he uses a sinker over 33% of the time. I know he’s been struggling lately, but Shohei Ohtani is about as cheap as we can get him and hammers sinkers with a .522 ISO and .564 wOBA along with a 344-foot average distance. We can then add on Brandon Marsh and maybe even a cheap Luis Rengifo who both have an ISO of .200 against the sinker as well. 

  • Brewers against Justin Steele
  • Mariners against Kris Bubic 
  • A’s against Jose Suarez
  • Astros against Humberto Castellanos 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17

We’re back in action with a full MLB slate tonight and we have some heavy hitters at the top of the pecking order tonight. The teams they face could pose some issues, but I think there’s a player likely to be chalk that I can’t really argue. Let’s talk about the top tier and figure out who else can roll with them tonight in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 to lead us to green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I’ll get this out of the way, this is a slate that we’re going to live in the Ace range and have a couple of risky punts and that is it. The mid-range tonight looks pretty terrible tonight and I am not interested really at all. We have some underpriced Aces that we should take advantage of and then take some shots with a punt arm in GPP. 

It’s going to be hard to pass on Chris Sale under five digits against the Orioles. Yes, we’ve talked all year about the Orioles hitting better against lefties and that is valid. However, the K rate is still right at 23% and Sale is sitting at a 27.5% K rate and his swinging-strike rate is 14.3%, which would rank inside the top 10 if Sale qualified. It’s an elite mark and even if Sale gives up a bomb or two, he should be able to make it up with strikeouts. The other factor (and this is one we really need to start paying attention to) is Boston is fighting for their lives for the playoffs. They need their ace to be their ace in this game. Boston has to beat up on a squad like Baltimore. Even coming off Covid, I think Sale goes as long as he can. He’s only been over 90 pitches once but that should change tonight. I don’t expect perfection, but I expect the K’s to make up for it. 

Walker Buehler continues to be one of the most consistent sources of 20 DK points we can play and outside of one awful start against the Giants, he’s continuing that trend. The Reds aren’t the biggest strikeout team at 23.2% and they are sixth against the fastball, but Buehler has been so good this year it’s hard to be totally concerned. The ballpark is a downgrade to be sure but Buehler still has a .262 wOBA even against lefties and his K rate is above 24% against each side of the plate. My small fear with Buehler is the xFIP is a full run higher than the ERA and Cincy is a place that can make the routine fly-balls look like a huge home run. The Reds are also sixth in ISO so there’s more risk than normal, but I think Buehler could be overlooked by the field. 

This will be a high-wire act but Logan Webb has the K upside we crave and even though Atlanta is a tough team to get after, they are in San Francisco, and Atlanta still whiffs over 24% of the time and that’s in the top 12. They are also one of the better offenses in baseball but much like Boston, the Giants are still fighting for playoff position. Of the eight players Webb is slated to face, five are righties and that’s what could help Webb succeed. Righties are striking out at a 28.8% clip and only carry a 2.55 xFIP and 22.9% hard-hit rate. On top of that, the ground ball rate is over 60% against each side of the plate and his slider has been a weapon this year. It has a wOBA of just .183, a whiff rate of 46.2%, and 73 strikeouts. Atlanta ranks 10th but that’s good for a -8.4 FanGraphs rating. All of Webb’s metrics rise at home and he could be a stealthy 22+ DK points. 

Zack Wheeler has found his form recently with at least 28 DK in his past two starts and a total of 17 strikeouts with just one run allowed. It’s a bit of a risk/reward spot because Wheeler is slightly worse against lefties, but strikes them out at a higher rate. The lineup should be balanced for the Mets and since the trade deadline, New York is striking out at a 23% rate. They are right about average in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS since that time and Wheeler is leaning on his fastball and slider to strike hitters out. The Mets are in the negatives against both pitches but with the options at our disposal tonight, I’m not convinced I want to spend the top dollar amount. 

Honorable Mention 

Both Lance McCullers and Dylan Cease are in play and Cease would be my favorite. He has a K rate over 29% against each side of the plate but will face mostly righties and has a .306 wOBA and 4.21 xFIP against that side. It’s the same deal for McCullers in that he has much worse splits against lefties at a .311 wOBA, 4.05 xFIP, and the K rate is down to 25.3%. Both the Texas and Arizona offenses aren’t good, but they do present some small issues for these pitchers. 

Punt Tier 

We do have one arm under $7,000 that catches my eye and it’s Cole Irvin. Is he a good pitcher? Well, not exactly. The K rate is a paltry 16.1% but the walk rate is only 5%, which helps even that out. The Angels have fallen like a rock against lefties since the deadline, sitting 27th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, 17th in ISO, and 28th in OBP. Irvin has been better against the right side of the plate with a .309 wOBA but his xFIP is higher with a lower K rate against that side as well. This is a matchup-based play and Irvin would do well to ditch his sinker. He’s throwing it 19.9% of the time but it gets pummeled for a .396 wOBA. His other three main pitches have a wOBA under .285 so if he can survive with his sinker, the low salary could pay off. I don’t feel a big need to move away from the ace tier, however. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 Stacks 

I’m looking for some format of a 4/3 stack with Red Sox and Astros tonight. Both teams are very cheap offensively, especially the Red Sox against lefty Keegan Akin and the Baltimore pitching staff. No hitter is over $5,000 and I think we set our bedrock with J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez, and Bobby Dalbec. Akin has a .361 wOBA against righties along with a 5.50 xFIP and a fly-ball rate over 45%. That’s not where you want to be against Boston and all of these hitters have a wOBA over .340 and ISO’s over .175. Akin’s fastball has a .340 wOBA and that’s his best pitch, so this is all system’s go for the Sox. 

What pieces you play from Boston depends on your pitching choices and who fits in with Houston. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill and the Astros are tough against lefties and they offer a minimum-priced punt (possibly). With Michael Brantley on the IL, Jose Siri could draw a start and would be wildly helpful to make everything work. We have our usual suspects like Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Yuli Gurriel. Bumgarner throws his cutter more than any other pitch and it’s given up nine homers and a .336 wOBA. Correa and Gurriel stand out the most against that pitch while Bregman is wildly underpriced. 

  • White Sox against Taylor Hearn 
  • Rays against Casey Mize 
  • Brewers against Zach Davies 
  • Cardinals against Vince Velasquez 
  • Rockies against Josiah Gray 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15

There is a split slate of MLB action today but seeing how one of these slates features Jon Lester taking on the Mets, we’ll let Brian handle that game. Instead, we’ll focus on the rest of the 10 game slate tonight and the choices that come with that in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 so let’s get cracking!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

If you’re spending up on this slate, Julio Urias is sure to get the attention as he’s been outstanding in his last 10 games and especially in the last four. Since June, his ERA hasn’t been above 2.30, the wOBA hasn’t been above .263, and the FIP hasn’t been above 3.67. His K rate has really picked up lately as well, sitting over 27% since the start of August which is an increase over his 26.7% for the season. What is really exciting for the upside is he whiffs lefties at a 31% rate and the Arizona lineup currently projects to have two of them, as opposed to all righties. Since the deadline, Arizona has fallen to 18th or worse in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and is over 22% in K rate. They are also bottom 10 against the curveball, which has a .177 wOBA, 67 strikeouts, and a 26.5% whiff rate. 

Even against the Rangers, I’m not paying five digits for Jose Urquidy when he has a K rate barely above 21% and an xFIP of 4.40 and I’m still terrified to touch Sean Manaea. He just walked through the Jays and White Sox while only giving up three total earned runs but had a five-start stretch before that where he didn’t clear eight DK points. Joe Musgrove is a “fine” option I guess but being worse against lefties means the Giants are primed to give him some issues. I think there’s a whole bunch of pitchers priced like Aces but aren’t nearly close enough. 

The one who does have a clear path to success at his salary is Tylor Megill of the Mets. He’s not without his warts but the Cards being so righty-heavy are going to accentuate his strengths. Lefties have killed him with a .408 wOBA and a 6.31 FIP but there are likely to be just two lefties playing for the Cardinals. Against righties, Megill has been outstanding with a .226 wOBA, a K rate over 30%, and an xFIP of just 2.68. His slider is a big help and he uses it more to the right side with a .248 wOBA, 33.3% whiff rate, and 24 strikeouts. St. Louis is 15th against the slider but way into the negatives on FanGraphs and they are also bottom-five against the fastball. 

Mid-Range 

Huascar Ynoa misses out on the Ace tier just barely but he definitely catches my eye. He draws the Rockies Road matchup and Colorado is 20th against the slider, a big bump for Ynoa. We recapped all the numbers in yesterday’s edition but suffice to say, Colorado has been trash on the road. Ynoa does have some reverse splits with a .315 wOBA against righties and is slated to face six of them, but the xFIP against that side is 3.51, only .20 higher than lefties. It’s a little strange to see because his hard-hit rate against righty hitters is 25.5% and the ground ball rate is 53.8%. The HR/FB rate is a sky-high 27.6% so there are reasons the numbers don’t make a lot of sense. With the pitch data backing him up, Ynoa’s slider really looks like a weapon. It’s his primary pitch but has 53 strikeouts, a .240 wOBA, and a 38.2% whiff rate. 

This is going to be Cal Quantrill’s third time seeing the Twins in six turns, which is a little nerve-racking but the guy has pitched well for the most part. His change and slider have been used a little more lately but it’s not been anything crazy different. Both of those pitches are under a .255 wOBA and have a whiff rate of at least 20.4% (the slider is up at 31.7%) and Quantrill is pretty steady in his splits. My largest hangup is that he only has a 15.4% K rate against righties and should face five of them. The xFIP is also a concern as it is over 4.25 against each side of the plate so there are pans to failure here, but he at least deserves a mention. 

The only other pitcher I at least have a mild interest in is Ranger Suarez and even then, it’s a dangerous path to walk. The difference between his 1.38 ERA and 3.57 xFIP is noteworthy but he does have a K rate of 25% and the Cubbies are whiffing 29% of the time since the deadline. Now, that doesn’t mean they don’t have some potential on their side because they are also 12th or higher in wOBA, OPS, slugging, and sit sixth in ISO against lefties. The Cubs are 18th against the changeup and that has been a dynamite swing and miss pitch for Suarez, generating a 40.1% whiff rate so far. All of his pitches have a wOBA under .2500 but it’s really just the Cubs not being a pushover like the perception might be. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 Stacks 

I know they got smacked by *checks notes*….Jordan Lyles last night, but the Astros are crazy cheap tonight against Kohei Arihara. He’s getting destroyed by righties especially with a .426 wOBA, .304 average, 7.56 FIP, and a fly-ball/hard-hit combo over 43.5% each. Both of his main pitches against righties have an ISO over .276 and a hard-hit rate of at least 39%. Arihara doesn’t lean on any particular pitch more than 30% so I’m starting my Astros stack with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. They all have a wOBA over .345 and an ISO over .165 this season, with Bregman dragging those numbers down a little bit. He’s been on fire lately though, averaging almost 11 DK points the last 10 games. 

You can basically copy and paste the analysis from last night to tonight for the Yankees. They face a better lefty in John Means, but he’s had his issues and the Yankees saw all their salaries drop. We can mix and match with our favorite Astros, but Aaron Judge and Luke Voit fit very nicely. Means still throws his fastball a good bit and that’s what we’re chasing since he’s been prone to the long ball more often since dealing with an injury. Working with that outline leaves us with some options at pitcher and we can fill in one or two spots with a punt, just like last night. 

  • Braves against Antonio Senzatela 
  • Cleveland against Griffin Jax 
  • White Sox against Janson Junk 
  • A’s against Mike Minor 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14

There are 12 games on the slate tonight with a returning ace and then a lot of very average options. I suspect that the Ace will be very popular but where we go after that could be interesting in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 – Main Targets

Ace Tier 

Gerrit Cole is reportedly full health coming off a hamstring injury in his last start and I’m going with that and firing him up tonight. The matchup is just too amazing on paper as the Orioles are ninth in K rate against righties overall and that has stayed stagnant through the season. He’s had some bumps in the road but he’s been mostly dominant through the year and after June, his K rate is has been about 35% or higher. The xFIP has been under 2.85 in every single month outside of that June disaster and the Yankees need every win they can get. Cole has a .237 wOBA, 2.47 FIP, and a 30.5% K rate against the right side of the plate and he should face seven. In his lone April start against this offense, Cole exceeded 43 DK points and he has that upside tonight.

Frankie Montas just continues to be on a tear with another 27 DK points in his last start and something has clicked in a major way across the last three months. The ERA is no higher than 2.63 and the K rate has been over 30%. The only poor aspect of this spot is the splitter for Montas has been his go-to pitch with a .187 wOBA, a 51.8% whiff rate, and78 strikeouts. The issue is he uses that pitch much more to lefties and he’s projected to only see four of them. That’s not awful but KC only whiffs 22% as a team. If we can go the double ace route, it would be Montas and Cole for me tonight. I think the splits won’t kill Montas but I do want to see the lineup.

It’s kind of annoying DK raised the salary by $800 for literally no reason, but I wrote this yesterday and everything still stands – Nathan Eovaldi is coming off shocking Brian and the best offense in baseball for almost 29 DK points. Eovaldi held the Rays down for seven innings of eight strikeout ball and now draws the Mariners. Seattle is still striking out over 24% of the time against righties since the deadline and has stayed in the bottom 10 in the other offensive categories. Eovaldi has been worse on the road but the xFIP in that split isn’t something that gives me major concerns. He’s been better against lefties as well with a 26% K rate and a .276 wOBA, in large part because his curve and splitter both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .230. Seattle is 17th against the curve and this spot sets up the best on paper for Eovaldi. 

Honorable Mention 

If you’re ever going to play Marcus Stroman, this could be the spot since he whiffs righty hitters at a 23.6% rate. I’m of the mind that Stro is a better real-life pitcher than fantasy and St. Louis only strikes out 22.2% of the time as a team.

The Rest

We’re rolling anyone else into one category and the pickings are very, very slim. Some of the pitchers can be discarded on matchup alone like Luke Weaver, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Jordan Lyles. That leads me to one option I think we can get behind in Touki Toussaint, who gets the Rockies on the road.

That has been a spot to attack all year long with Colorado whiffing over 26% of the time against righties on the road. On top of that, they are no higher than 28th in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The issue there is the metrics don’t exactly give us a lot to work with. His xFIP is 4.55 and the FIP is 5.47, neither of which is inspiring. The K rate is also nothing special at 21.9% with a swinging-strike rate at just 9.9%. Now, the good news is Toussaint has been better against righty hitters with a .310 wOBA, a 24.6% K rate, and a 3.56 xFIP. I don’t love the spot by any stretch so let’s see how chalky he is.

The solution to our issues could well be Eric Fedde, who just scorched the Marlins for 32 DK four starts ago. That makes some sense since the Marlins whiff at a top 10 rate and have struggled offensively all year. Fedde is sitting at a .317 wOBA against righties along with a 24.8% K rate, a 3.75 xFIP, and a 1.24 WHIP. These aren’t elite but the man is $6,900, he’s not going to be perfect. Miami is 23rd against the curve and that’s a big boost for Fedde because his curve has a .234 wOBA, 36.9% whiff rate, and a .234 wOBA. For this salary, I’m willing to take a shot.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 Stacks 

The first stack to me is the Giants with a bullet point. Jake Arrieta has been a target all year and he gets destroyed by lefties with a .401 wOBA, 6.56 FIP, 1.96 WHIP, and just a 16.8% K rate. San Fran has lefties to spare and we’re starting with a bedrock of Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Mike Yastrzemski. The latter two smack righty sinkers, especially Crawford with a .308 ISO and .496 wOBA. Belt doesn’t hit the sinker as well but his ISO leads the squad at .324 and his wOBA is .391.

I’m willing to roll out Fedde because he can help me get access to the Yankees lineup in Baltimore against lefty Alexander Wells. He’s gotten smashed by righties with a .437 wOBA, 7.08 xFIP, and he’s walked more hitters than he’s struck out. All of his top three pitches have a wOBA over .395 and the Yanks are better off facing lefties. The nice thing is New York fits in nicely with the Giants. You can play Kyle Higashioka or Gary Sanchez at catcher, as they are only $100 apart and both have an ISO of .298. You can pick between Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton and I give the lean for Judge. A player like Gio Urshela can make an impact as well with a .174 ISO and a good matchup. We just need a punt or two to make things work.

  • Phillies against Adrian Sampson
  • White Sox against Packy Naughton
  • Astros against Jordan Lyles
  • Cubs against Kyle Gibson
  • Dodgers against Luke Weaver

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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