MLB DFS GPP

Starting Rotation 7.27

We have all 30 teams in action tonight but I’m not sure exactly what that means as far as pitching options. We do have some strong arms but we’ll be paying for them if we go that route and paying for aces has been frustrating lately. We have the high end and plenty in between to get to so let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 7.27 to set our foundation for green screens!

Starting Rotation 7.27 – Main Targets

Lance McCullers 

He’s certainly expensive, especially for a pitcher who has five starts of under 20 DK in his last 10. The good news is McCullers has plenty of ceiling with two starts of at least 35 DK and this strikes me as a spot that could feature a ceiling. McCullers has a K rate approaching 28% and generates an 11.6% swinging-strike rate. His two secondary pitchers of the curve and slider both have a whiff rate over 34% and the wOBA is under .285. The sinker has been the weak spot with a .347 wOBA and four out of six home runs allowed. Playing McCullers hopes that the Mariners being poor against the fastball (bottom-five) helps mitigate that factor. 

If there’s a concern, it might lay in the splits. Lefties have a wOBA of .305 and an xFIP of 4.49, in addition to the K rate falling to 23%. Seattle should roll out five lefties tonight and what’s really interesting is they are third in fly-ball rate against righties. McCullers has a ground ball rate over 54% on the year, so that could be a determining factor for this start. I think McCullers is a strong option, but I’m not convinced he’s a must-have at this salary. 

Sandy Alcantara

The righty for the Marlins has hit the skids a little bit lately with single-digit scores three of his last four starts. What’s interesting is in the last three starts, his FIP was no higher than 4.15 and two of those starts only sported a hard-hit rate under 23%. This should be where the bleeding stops with the Orioles hitting so poorly against righties this year. They remain bottom-five in the categories that we value and even though Alcantara has a K rate of just 21.3%, Baltimore should help boost that. 

You can also argue that the career-high swinging-strike rate of 12% should be leading to more strikeouts. Baltimore sits 17th against the slider and 29th against the change and both pitches have a whiff rate over 29.5% this season. Alcantara does face an extra hitter in an AL park but he’s slated to face seven righties. They only have a .259 wOBA, 3.10 xFIP, and a 25.8% K rate so this spot really lines up well for him. The mid-range has some options but Alcanara might wind up being the favorite. 

Dylan Cease

Cease is kind of an odd pitcher to talk about. He’s a little bit inconsistent in his results but the 29.5% K rate is quite appealing, especially at this price. Kansas City is a low K rate tam at 22.1% but they also aren’t a good offense against righties. They rank in the bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories except wRC+ where they are at 19th. Cease is primarily a two-pitch guy with the four-seam and slider, but the curve is a serious weapon when he uses it. The slider/curve combo has 78 strikeouts and both possess a whiff rate over 41%. The Royals are also 25th against the fastball, which in theory helps Cease. That offering has allowed nine of 13 home runs with a .359 wOBA. 

His swinging-strike rate of 14.6% ranks eighth in all of baseball, which shocked me when I saw it. The concerns for him lie in the splits as well since he should face five righties and they have the better of the offense against him. It’s a .324 wOBA and a 4.37 xFIP but we also have to note the .342 BABIP, which is kind of nuts. This spot against the Royals could well be where it starts to come down to Earth and he’s another option that makes me hesitant to pay up tonight. 

Jose Saurez 

I can safely say this is the first visit to the Rotation for Suarez but that happens when you’re facing the Rockies outside of Coors. The only team saving Colorado from ranking 30th in almost every major offensive category against lefties on the road is the Pirates offense. They also strike out over 24% of the time. Now, Suarez isn’t exactly special by some metrics and the career ERA is over 6.00. He’s been slightly better than that this season through 41IP and his metrics against righties actually look fairly solid. The xFIP is barely over 4.00 but the wOBA is only .207 and the hard-hit rate is under 29%. His changeup has been the best weapon thus far with 15 strikeouts, a .150 wOBA, and a 39.2% whiff rate. Colorado is 19th against the changeup and Suarez is interesting in this spot. 

Jordan Montgomery

The last time Montgomery tangled with the Rays, he racked up 24 DK points and whiffed six batters. Heck, even this past start he scored over 22 DK and saw his salary decrease by $700. That makes no sense and even with the addition of Nelson Cruz, Tampa is likely to still scuffle against lefties. They are 26th in OBP, OPS, wOBA, 23rd in ISO, and 22nd in wRC+. Cruz isn’t going to solve all of that by himself and Montgomery has a K rate over 24%. The swinging-strike rate backs that up at 13.2% and he’s using the change/curveball combo to his advantage. Both have a whiff rate over 38% and sport a wOBA under .265. 

What is really nice to see is the splits for Montgomery. Tampa is still projected to have four in the lineup and if that holds, it’s perfect for him. Montgomery has a .223 wOBA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 26.8% K rate. He may not be the most consistent pitcher we have on the slate, but the salary doesn’t match the upside the least for this spot. 

Starting Rotation Special 

Let’s get wild. A friendly reminder that this play will not be for everyone and is inherently risky. This pitcher draws a matchup against the team that is fighting for dead last against the fastball on the year. The Special has been using that pitch over 51% of the time so far and the opposing offense also features a K rate over 25%. They are also 26th in wOBA and OPS while sitting 28th in ISO. The hard-hit rate from any start so far isn’t above 36.4% and the barrel rate is only 7%. 

I will admit the fly ball rate is massive at 43.9% which could become an issue. My largest fear is the lineup he’ll face likely is righty-heavy and through just 35 faced, the K rate is only 11.4% with an xFIP over 6.00. However, that’s such a small sample that I can’t say it’s a deal-breaker. The Marlins just aren’t a good offense and Spenser Watkins could ride the four-seam to 15 DK or higher. To be clear, I would rather play Montgomery but if you play multiple lineups, Watkins is well worth a look. 

Starting Rotation 7.27 Honorable Mention 

Robbie Ray – I don’t think we should let a slate go by without talking about him and his 31.3% K rate, but I won’t be playing him tonight. First, his salary went up into five digits after 7.7 DK points last time out. That last start came against this same Red Sox team and with his fastball-heavy approach, I really don’t have interest at this salary facing the same offense again. 

Shane McClanahan – Not my favorite price point for the fireballer but he does carry a 28.6% K rate so far. His four-seam has been the undoing so far with a wOBA over .400 and you can make a good argument that New York is just way too cheap and stack a few hitters. I’m hesitant to not at least mention McClanahan with his talent level, but I will fall on the Yanks side of the equation with Aaron Judge likely back as well. As a team, they rank top 10 in OPS, OBP, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties this season. 

Kenta Maeda – We’ve been talking about him an awful lot lately and the price is at least down to palatable. His K rate is almost 25% and since he’s come back from injury, his splitter and slider combo has been playing much better. I can see him being chalk which is fine, but I’m not sure we need to eat that past the cash format on this large of a slate. 

Starting Rotation 7.27 Primary Stack 

Matt Moore is on the bump again for the Phillies and the Nationals offense has been excellent against lefties this season. They are a little banged up but there is still plenty we can utilize here at the top of the order and beyond. Righty hitters have a .405 wOBA and a 6.57 FIP against Moore and he’s using the fastball 53%. I’m going through the infield here with Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman, and Alcides Escobar. 

Turner and Zimmerman are both over a .375 wOBA and .275 ISO while Turner mauls the fastball for a .364 ISO, the best on the team. Harrison sits at a .222 ISO against that pitch and has a .367 wOBA and Escobar is at a .349 wOBA through 23 PA. What I really love is if you decide to go Yankees, the Nationals correlate extremely well with hitters like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton. 

Starting Rotation 7.27 Secondary Stacks 

• Yankees against Shane McClanahan 
• Braves against Jerad Eickhoff
• Reds against Adbert Alzolay (lefties only)
• Twins against Tyler Alexander 
• Jays against Garrett Richards
• White Sox against Brad Keller 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.24

It’s Saturday and we’re going to be focused on the main slate today with only four games in the early portion of the day. We get 10 in the evening and that’s where a lot of the action is, including a game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel pretty easily. We have that and plenty more in the Starting Rotation 7.24 so we can set our foundations for green! 

Starting Rotation 7.24 – Main Targets 

The stars of the slate are Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon as they face off against one another, so let’s talk about that matchup as a whole. Starting with Burnes, he reminded us of the ceiling that he does have with over 43 DK points and 12 strikeouts. The cutter is the main weapon for Burnes with 78 strikeouts and he also offers a curve and slider as his main trio. Not only is Chicago 28th against the cutter, the curve, and slider both have a whiff rate over 48% this year. The K rate is 37.2%, the FIP is 1.31, and the xFIP is 2.07. There really is very little to not like here and if you need more, the White Sox lead the league in ground ball rate against righties. Burnes has generated a 50.7% rate and he’s a fantastic play. 

Rodon also has an excellent matchup by pitch type since his slider is his start strikeout pitch with 73. It carries the highest whiff rate at 42.9% and the Brewers rank 29th against the pitch. Both the slider and the four-seam sit at a .225 wOBA or under while Rodon generates a 15.5% swinging-strike rate. The Brewers are also fifth in K rate to lefty pitching and we could see a lot of zeroes on the scoreboard with plenty of strikeouts to boot. If there’s an offense that fits reasonably, I wouldn’t mind going double ace but it would have to be a very cheap offense. If I’m only picking one, I’d go Burnes but truly think either is a very fine play. 

Kevin Gausman – The Dodgers offense is nowhere to be found in this one and Gausman has been incredible past the Dodgers starts. His K rate is over 30% and the FIP is 2.82 with a 1.84 ERA. The xFIP is 3.40 which I suppose is a small concern but the Pirates offense is bottom-five in ISO against righties. Gausman is basically using only two pitches, throwing a four-seam or splitter 88% of the time. The splitter has racked up 98 strikeouts and has just a .146 wOBA with a 49.6% whiff rate. That pitch continues to sit in the top five overall in FanGraphs rating. Gausman has only given up a .185 wOBA at home this year along with a 2.85 xFIP and a 33.1% K rate. What’s going to be interesting to me is the popularity of these first three pitchers. If there’s a massive discrepancy, we should do our best to take advantage of it. I’m not sure there’s a massive difference on paper. 

Logan Gilbert – He struck out a career-high nine hitters last time out and it was phenomenal to see his pitch mix. The four-seam was only at 57% while the slider and changeup were at 26% and 17%. That’s a fairly radical shift from some starts that pushed an 80% four-seam usage. Considering his whiff rate on the slider and change are 40.5% and 73.1%, Gilbert has to use them consistently. Even with some bumps, Gilbert has a 28.3% K rate and just a 5.5% walk rate. He’s also only giving up a 29.5% hard-hit rate so there are so many encouraging signs. If he continues to utilize the weapons, he looks like he’ll have the goods to hang with any offense in baseball. 

Luis Castillo – It seems like the DK pricing algorithm got stuck with Castillo struggling in the early part of the season. He continues to be reborn this season after the calendar flipped to July with a wOBA under .255 since that point and an ERA under 1.85. The K rate has been over 23% and the xFIP has been under 3.90. Everything lines up for Castillo pitching the way we all thought he would and the price simply won’t move. Even throughout the uneven year, Castillo has been better against righty hitters and we love that against the Cardinals lineup. He’s not scored under 15.5 DK since the start of June. 

Starting Rotation 7.24 Honorable Mention 

Chris Bassitt – He likely gets lost in the shuffle with some of the names in his salary range and I do prefer the ones we talked about. Still, Bassitt draws a matchup against a Mariners offense that is fourth in K rate against righties at 25.9%. Bassitt is also pretty even to each side of the plate with a wOBA of no higher than .283. His main three pitchers are a variety of fastballs and Seattle has struggled to a bottom-four ranking. 

Starting Rotation 7.24 Primary Stack 

Kyle Freeland takes the mound tonight and that means we’re going to have to be interested in some Dodgers hitters. Mookie Betts is the obvious one busboy is it hard today $6,500 for any hitter. Instead, I think we can go somewhat cheaper in Chris Taylor and Justin Turner as they both have wOBA’s over .375 and ISO’s over .255. That still means we need some cheaper options and the Dodgers lineup should provide that with the duo of Albert Pujols and AJ Pollock. They are also over a .210 ISO and Freeland is giving up at least a .375 wOBA to both sides of the plate this year. The xFIP to the right side of the plate is 5.10 and that should come back to bite him today. 

Starting Rotation 7.24 Secondary Stacks 

• Rays against J.C. Mejia (lefties)
• Giants against Wil Crowe 
• Tigers against Carlos Hernandez

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.23

We finally have a slate that has plenty of pitching options tonight and I’m super excited for it! It appears that we have at least one option at just about every price point so there should be plenty of paths to choose from. There are 14 games in the Starting Rotation 7.23 so let’s get down to business and lay our foundations for more green screens! 

Starting Rotation 7.23 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

I voiced some concern in Cole’s last start because of the lack of swinging strikes during the previous one. Well, that went away last time as Cole generated a 39% whiff rate and he utilized the curve just a bit more than normal. There was really not much to suggest that either of the last two starts were undeserved for Cole. He left each start with a 2.95 and 1.69 xFIP to go along with a 25% and 11.8% hard-hit rate. There can be some small concern about facing the same lineup twice in a row but Cole has scored 50 and 35 DK points and his salary remains the same. For a while there, Cole was a relatively easy fade. Even with the spin rate still down a hair, he’s gone back-to-back starts with double-digit strikeouts. The rewards outweigh the risks. 

Lucas Giolito

Hello, Ace version of Mr. Giolito! It came against the Astros of all teams and his price is still very affordable and the Brewers offense is less of a challenge than Houston’s (no offense, just saying). We’ve continually talked all season about how Giolito is better than some of his surface numbers appear and he’s still sporting a 29.2% K rate on the year. Part of the reason I keep coming back to him is the swinging-strike rate of 15.4% is fifth in all of baseball. That has to add up to some strikeouts and he’s giving up 3% less hard contact than last year as well. 

The largest concern outside of the instability Giolito has displayed is the four-seam data. Milwaukee is top 12 against that pitch and it’s been the worst pitch for Giolito. It has a .321 wOBA and only a 23.4% whiff rate. The good news is the projected Brew Crew lineup has five lefties plus the pitcher spot in it, a luxury for Giolito. Lefties have hit him worse at a .272 wOBA, strike out more at a 31.5% rate, and have the lower FIP at 3.08. With Milwaukee sitting at the fifth-highest K rate of 25.6% against righties, I’m ready for Giolito to hurt me again. 

Johnny Cueto 

This is a rarity for me. There isn’t exactly something that I can hitch the wagon to with Cueto. Sure, we’ll talk about some stats but I just have this feeling that he has a very strong start here. The slider has been an issue for Cueto with a .433 wOBA and just a 13.8% whiff rate. It’s a good thing for him that the Buccos are in the bottom-five against the pitch this season, along with dead last against the fastball. It’s not a large surprise but Cueto has performed better in San Francisco with a 3.21 ERA and .308 wOBA. Those marks jump to 5.09 and a .381 wOBA on the road. 

Strikeouts are king in DFS and while Cueto isn’t special, he is over 20%. Frankly, I don’t expect more than 4-5 strikeouts. With Cueto featuring a 4.6% walk rate, he makes you earn it. The Pirates are 24th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+. I think we get 22 DK here and 3x value from the crafty veteran tonight. 

David Price 

With a rising pitch count and 13 DK points IN Colorado the last time out, it’s going to be hard to ignore Price here. The Dodgers need starting-caliber arms with 3/5 of their rotation on the sideline and Price should get over 80 pitches tonight. We get Rockies Road tonight and against lefties, they are 29th in ISO, OPS, slugging, average, wOBA, and wRC+. They also strike out 25% of the time. It’s hard to put a quantifier on his seasonal stats since coming out of the bullpen is vastly different than starting. Things get skewed quickly for relievers but he does have a 22% K rate (it jumps over 25% to righties) and just a 3.21 xFIP against that side. The bottom line is the price is just far too low for a potential SP2 that allows us any ace we want for under a total of $16,500. 

Wily Peralta 

If I had to guess on Thursday night, I think Price is popular. That likely means Peralta will be mostly ignored and since Brian is out for the weekend, I need to plant the flag here. If Price is popular, Peralta is the direct pivot but has plenty of risks. For starters, Peralta has a 4.50 xFIP compared to a 1.64 ERA. The strikeouts are not really there at just a 15.9% rate, among the lowest that has ever made this article. He does have a 57.4% ground ball rate in his 33 IP so that helps at the salary. The matchup is largely what we’re after since KC hasn’t hit righties all year. They are 21st or worse in all of our categories and he could easily match Price at a fraction of the popularity. 

Starting Rotation 7.23 Honorable Mention 

Freddy Peralta – I won’t land there with Giolito and Cole right around him, but we know Peralta has upside. His 35.1% K rate is the highest of any pitcher on the slate among qualified starters (including Cole). I do have questions about how long he can keep this performance up in the second half. His 98 IP is already a career-high in the majors. I think Cole only $100 more is worth the difference in ownership tonight. 

Frankie Montas – I have zero trust in Montas but this spot would be one that should accentuate his strengths. The sinker and four-seam make up almost 63% of his pitches and Seattle is 27th against fastballs this season. Both pitches have a .339 wOBA or higher but his splitter is the main weapon. It has a 52.8% whiff rate and only a .173 wOBA. If Seattle can’t hit the fastball mix, they are in trouble. To top it off, Montas is better against lefties with a 29.6% K rate, 3.57 xFIP, and a .300 wOBA. He’s slated to face five of them tonight. 

Starting Rotation 7.23 Primary Stacks 

On a larger slate, I tend to limit myself to four hitters from an offense and possibly even three. The two offenses that have my eye tonight are the Angels and Nationals, but we’ll start with the cheaper one. We can utilize an ace/punt approach with pitching in Cole/Peralta (or Price). 

The Angels face off against J.A. Happ, who has been terrible all year. Righties are hammering him with a .392 wOBA, .934 OPS, and a 5.37 xFIP. His two main pitches are the four-seam and slider and we can turn to a recently reinstated Justin Upton along with David Fletcher and Jose Iglesias. All three hitters have at least a .344 wOBA and the first two are above .400. Upton is an elite one-off even if you don’t go with a full Angels stack. 

Since we have a punt pitcher and some super cheap Angel hitters, we can pay up for the Nationals hitters in Camden Yards, starting with the WHITE hot Juan Soto. Through 59 at-bats in July, he’s hitting .390 with seven bombs, a .526 wOBA, and a 1.293 OPS. Now, if you go this route it might feel a little weird because if you play Iglesias from LA, you leave out Trea Turner from the Nationals. You can interchange those two players and supplement the Washington part of this play with Josh Bell and Josh Harrison, both over a .320 wOBA on the year. 

Main Components for the Stacks – Soto, Upton, Tuner/Iglesias, Fletcher, Harrison, Bell

Starting Rotation 7.23 Secondary Stacks 

• Dodgers against Chi Chi Gonzalez
• Astros against Kolby Allard
• Orioles against Patrick Corbin 
• Padres against Zach Thompson
• Tigers against Kris Bubic

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.20

If you thought last night’s pitching was kind of rough, I may have some bad news. Tonight is not a whole lot better even though we have two more games to bring the total to 13. We have a minefield to navigate tonight in the Starting Rotation 7.20 to figure out who we need to target this evening!

Starting Rotation 7.20 – Main Targets 

Note – We’ve talked about Yu Darvish, Luis Garcia, and Trevor Rogers in yesterday’s article. My feelings on all three really haven’t changed past the fact they all saw the salary rise. I’m slightly less interested in all three but the complexion of the slate might push them more into play than I would like. 

Aaron Nola

I’m not exactly a giant fan of Nola and likely don’t play him but he’s one of the most talented pitchers on the slate and needs to be discussed. His pitch types are interesting because every single pitch has given up at least a .282 wOBA. The curve is the best of the bunch with that wOBA, a .210 average, and 47 strikeouts. It also has the highest whiff rate of any pitch at 34.7% and New York is just average against that pitch this season. 

It does help Nola that he’s better against righties with a .293 wOBA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 28.1% K rate. The xFIP is a touch higher but only 3.53. My concerns here are we’d be paying for a pitcher that has a 1.21 WHIP and a HR/9 of 1.33 in Yankee Stadium. The New York lineup is banged up but aside from the K rate for Nola, I can’t point to any dominant trait that totally sells me here. His xFIP of 3.36 is a lot better than the 4.53 ERA but I’m not sure this is the spot where it normalizes. 

German Marquez 

This man is on an absolute roll right now and has cleared 23 DK in eight of the last 10 starts and 19 in nine of 10. That’s the style of consistency we crave and his 3.36 ERA matches the 3.27/3.48 FIP/xFIP combo. The K rate is back up to 25% after sitting around 21% in 2020 and the improvement on the four-seam has helped. Last year it had a wOBA over .400 and this year it’s at .306. The other aspect that has Brough great results is the slider. He’s bumped it up from 16% to 27% and it has 46 of 114 strikeouts. The whiff rate is over 44% on that pitch and the curve and the trio is working together in a much better fashion this season. 

Marquez has pitched 70.2 innings in Coors compared to 41.2 on the road and his Coors numbers are better at home almost across the board. His ERA, xFIP, FIP, HR/9, and wOBA are all better in Coors and the only issue is the K rate comes down (but just to 24.2%). Lefties at Coors against Marquez used to be money but they only have a .263 wOBA this season. With Seattle sitting at a 26% K rate on the year and 25th or worse in OBP, slugging, and wOBA, Marquez looks almost as safe as you can in Denver. 

Tarik Skubal 

I’m willing to take another shot with Skubal in part because he’s not seeing his pitch count monitored like teammate Casey Mize. Skubal has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his last 10 starts and even though the last two starts before the break were average, he was facing tough matchups. Texas does not represent the same difficult spot on paper because they are 25th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season. T

The K rate isn’t super high at 23.5% but when Skubal has struggled, it’s been keeping the ball in the park. His K rate throughout 120.2 career innings is 27.2% so that aspect is not an issue. Since March/April, Skubal has had an xFIP under 4.00 which is very encouraging. He’s shown upside with starts of 28 DK against Houston and 31 DK against the White Sox. Given the slate, I’m fairly happy to give Skubal a start and spend on bats. 

Starting Rotation 7.20 Honorable Mention

Shane McClanahan – The price is really high for my liking and his four-seam is getting smacked at the major league level. It’s given up six of nine home runs while yielding a .329 average and .427 wOBA. The average MPH is impressive at 97.2 and the whiff rate for the slider and curve are over 44% but there are flaws to be worked out and he’s not cheap. 

Dane Dunning – This one is exceptionally dangerous since Dunning is slightly worse to lefties with a .332 wOBA and a 4.12 xFIP. The good news is the K rate is identical and the HR/9 is just 0.25 and Detroit is flirting with a 27% K rate. Dunning is just under 25% and it’s tough to find pitchers with that style of K rate at this salary. His FIP is 3.35 and the xFIP is 3.57 which are both encouraging as well. If you wanted to just punt pitching and go all-in on offense, the Dunning/Skubal combo offers significant risk and reward. 

Starting Rotation 7.20 Primary Stack 

Boston went bonkers last night and they look primed to do it again tonight. Toronto had to put Alek Manoah on the IL, forcing Thomas Hatch into spot starting duty. On top of that, the bullpen pitched almost the entire game last night after Ross Stripling got shelled. Hatch only has 26.1 IP in the majors but even in the minors, his K rate is just 24% this season while hovering around 21% in other action. 

Hatch sat on the fastball almost 48% of the time in his action last year and if that continues, he should struggle. Kike Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and Hunter Renfroe have ISO’s over .205. All of those hitters are over a .310 wOBA on the year except for Renfroe. By the way, J.D. Martinez is sitting at a .188 ISO against the fastball and it looks like freshly called up Jarren Durran should make the lineup again tonight. The best part about this stack is not one player is over $5,400 on DK. It’s not that difficult to get what pitching you’d like. 

Starting Rotation 7.20 Secondary Stacks

• Reds against Robert Stock
• Rockies against Marco Gonzales
• Blue Jays against Garrett Richards 
• Padres against Kyle Muller 
• White Sox against Bailey Ober 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.17

It’s another Saturday and we do have a split slate, but there are only three games in the afternoon and 10 at night. With that, we’re only going to focus on the main 10 game slat and give that our full attention. Hopefully, it’s not as hectic a slate as it was yesterday in the Starting Rotation 7.17 and it’s easier to lay our foundation for green! 

Starting Rotation 7.17 – Main Targets 

Note – Brandon Woodruff is starting tonight and my general thoughts are in yesterday’s article. I would rather use this next pitcher if spending on pitching tonight. 

Gerrit Cole 

Red Sox Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 12th SL – 5th CB – 2nd CH – 1st

Did we see Cole figure things out with a decreased spin rate or was he just happy to shove against the Astros? Well, that’s a question that will cost you $10,000 to answer and I’m a little leery. The spin rate was still down in the last start and what concerns me the most is he only got 13 swinging strikes out of 126 total pitches.

Boston isn’t striking out a ton at 23.6% but Houston is under 20% so that was a worse spot for Cole. He should face six righties tonight and that would help if the seasonal metrics held up. Cole racked up a 29.2% K rate and .231 wOBA in the first half against righties but also had a 38.3% K rate against lefties. It’s honestly kind of a confounding spot. My lean is to eat the chalk in cash if we need to, but I’m not sold in GPP. One start doesn’t fully change how average he pitched since the sticky stuff crackdown and I’m not thinking he throws 126 pitches for a CGSO again. 

Nathan Eovaldi 

Yankees Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 17th CB – 15th CT – 20th SL – 10th SF – 4th

The Yankees are hurting through the lineup, missing three regulars and others. They are still projected to be very righty-heavy and on the surface, that looks terrible for Eovaldi. He gave up a .343 wOBA but let’s look past that. The hard-hit rate was only 26.3% while the flyball rate was only 23.6%. The BABIP was an absurd .371 and even then, he had an 81.6% strand rate. New York is inside the top 10 in K rate facing righty pitching at 24.9%, another notch for Eovaldi. His curve and slider both have whiff rates over 36.8% so he does have some strikeout ability. The swinging-strike rate is 12.1% and overall, Eovaldi looks like a pretty solid bargain. 

Luis Castillo 

Brewers Ranks vs Pitch Types – CH – 17th FB – 11th SL – 30th 

I will grant you that the strikeout upside isn’t exactly there right now for Castillo, as his last 50.1 IP hasn’t produced a rate over 25%. However, $7,500 isn’t all that much that you need to get 8-10 strikeouts. Hitters haven’t produced a wOBA over .242 in that period either and the ERA has been below 2.50. Castillo has really done an excellent job of limiting hard contact at under 24.5% to each side of the plate and keeping the ball out of the air at under 28%. The sinker is really his biggest issue this season. It’s giving up a .358 average, .425 wOBA, and leads with four home runs given up. Four players in the Brewers lineup have ISO’s over .200 (Yelich, Narvaez, Peterson, Bradley Jr.) but past that the lineup doesn’t look dangerous. Castillo just remains too cheap in this spot. 

Starting Rotation Special 

I’ve said these picks are risky, and this one is certainly up there. I think his teammate not really doing anything special last night could leave him overlooked, and his recent results weren’t very good before the break. His four-seam has been a huge issue thus far. It rated as a 3.7 on FanGraphs last year compared to -6.1 this year. The .399 wOBA and 15.3% whiff rate would certainly agree with those ratings as well. His opposition is ninth against the fastball but they also strikeout over 27% against this handedness. 

This offense has scuffled on top of that and their OBP and OPS is just 27th, the ISO is 26th, the wOBA is 27th, and the wRC+ is 24th. The Special is rocking a 3.93 xFIP and only a 25.2% hard-hit rate with a 29.7% fly-ball rate. The BABIP to each side of the plate is over .315 and I think this is a spot where Max Fried starts to normalize. 

Starting Rotation 7.17 Honorable Mention 

Anthony DeSclafani – I can never get a good feel for Tony Disco. He’s got a 3.89 xFIP, 3.49 FIP, and a 2.68 ERA so something should give there. The K rate is under 24% but the WHIP is an even 1.00 to go with a career-high swinging-strike rate of 11.2%. Perhaps the best attribute for him in this start is his results against righty hitters in the first half. He racked up a .217 wOBA, 22.2% K rate, and a 0.89 WHIP. However, the xFIP is 4.21 and he had a 91.9% strand rate. I think it was a little smoke and mirrors and this spot isn’t my favorite. 

Yusei Kikuchi – If it weren’t for Eovaldi, I would have definitely had Kikuchi as a target but I’ll save the $500. Still, the Mariners lefty was mostly on a roll ahead of the break and gets an Angels squad still missing Justin Upton, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon. Keep an eye on the Angels lineup. They are projected to have four lefties. If that’s true, Kikuchi really does take a step up. He’s owned the left side with a 31% K rate, 2.48 xFIP, and a tiny .179 wOBA. 

Brady Singer – I flirted with him as the Special since the Orioles are ninth in K rate and Singer’s metrics look kinder than results. His xFIP to the right side of the plate is only 3.68 and while the K rate is only 21.6%, he’s under $7,000. The Orioles are projected for a 6-3 split with righty hitters in the lead and the hard-hit rate from that side is only 19.5%. You can do way worse at this price point. 

Starting Rotation 7.17 Primary Stack 

This looks like I’m just chasing last night, but I’ve been chasing offenses against Patrick Corbin all year. The Padres let us down in this spot last Tim right before the break but did you know Corbin generated a 7.5% swinging-strike rate, 6.03 xFIP, and a 5.83 FIP in that start? The Nationals used the bullpen for 7.2 innings last night and even with a well-rested pen, that’s not a good idea. 

Every pitch for Corbin outside of the slider is just getting crushed with a wOBA over .390 and it just so happens that both Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado have ISO’s over .300 against that pitch. Corbin is only striking out righties at a 16% clip and we can add in Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, and even Ha-seong Kim for salary saving. Past the top two hitters, this stack is very affordable, and don’t forget to make it different with a lefty like Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth. They both have a wOBA of at least .340 this season against lefties. 

Starting Rotation 7.17 Secondary Stacks 

• Dodgers
• Mets 
• Giants

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