MLB DFS GPP

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26

There are only three games on the early slate and none include Jon Lester, so we’re going to focus on the nine-game main slate tonight. Just like last night, we have some big names on this slate but unlike last night, they are in generally better spots. We have plenty to talk about in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 so we can carve out our path to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

I’m only looking at two pitchers in the Ace Tier in Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Both Yu Darvish and Zach Eflin are coming off the IL and I’m not particularly interested with no discount involved. Darvish has taken a step backward after the sticky stuff crackdown and Eflin has been out for around a month and only pitched 2.1 innings in his lone rehab start. I’ll start with Scherzer because I think he may be the chalkier of the two and we have no pitch count worries with Mad Max. He is typically going only around six innings but he’s also rocking a 34.4% K rate. The splits won’t be the most important here because the Padres are typically balanced as both sides of the plate are under a .265 wOBA and both are over a 32% K rate. Scherzer has a lower xFIP against righties which is what I’d like to see because generally, the more dangerous hitters are on the right side. 

I’m not in love with the price on Sale because he only threw 71 pitches last time out. Now the Sox had a decent lead and Sale did give up five hits and a walk, but it was still a surprise. His first 10 IP look very good with a walk rate of 2.5% and a K rate of almost 33%. The ground ball rate is very encouraging at 56% and nobody is hitting him hard at just 11.9%. Another small concern is the slider only has a 28.6% whiff rate so far and Sale isn’t throwing it more than 21.3%. The change has been his second pitch and in the small sample, it has zero strikeouts and a .590 wOBA. The good news is Minnesota is 25th against that pitch and Sale hasn’t even made it back full strength yet and has recorded over 21 DK in both games. 

The Mid-Range/Punt Tier 

We’re going to roll the two tiers together because there’s a very interesting grouping of three in the $7,300-$7,100 range we’ll get to in a minute. First, we need to hit on Alex Wood and even though he feels like he’s kind of in no man’s land as far as salary goes, he deserves to be mentioned. Wood is sitting over a 25% K rate and the Mets actually climb up to a 24.3% K rate against lefties. They are also 26th in OPS, 28th in ISO, and 25th in both wOBA and wRC+ this season. The Mets are 10th against the slider which is a small concern but Wood’s slider only gives up a .251 wOBA and has a 37.8% whiff rate. After a tough three-start stretch, Wood has rebounded with 21 DK or more in the past three games. 

The reason I doubt Wood gets much ownership is that I believe the field goes with an Ace and one of Miles Mikolas, Zac Gallen, or Yusei Kikuchi. I will say that Kikuchi comes into this game in the worst form, having gotten mauled the last time out by the Astros. The Royals have gotten much better against lefties as the year has gone forward but they also have the fourth-highest ground ball rate since July 1. That’s a big deal because Kikuchi generates a 49.9% rate himself to go with a 25.6% K rate. Every pitch aside from his cutter has a whiff rate over 30.5% and even though his numbers against righties aren’t exactly great, we know he has a ceiling at this price tag. He and the next man are the riskiest players in this range in my eyes. 

Gallen has all the talent in the world but he’s had a rough year. He’s battled injuries and his xFIP of 3.93 looks better than his 4.59 ERA. His 27.4% K rate speaks for himself and he’s walking out of Coors Field after a dominant start with over 30 DK points. Philly isn’t the highest strikeout offense at just 23.1% against righty pitching, but Gallen boasts a whiff rate over 31% on all three of his pitches other than his four-seam. Philly should be righty-heavy and that’s a mixed bag for Gallen. It helps that he has a 30.6% K rate to that side but the xFIP is slightly higher at 4.09. Perhaps the best aspect is the Phils are 22nd against the fastball and Gallen has 40 of his strikeouts from his four-seam. 

My personal favorite is Mikolas and he went for over 18 DK in his first start back from a lengthy IL stint. The Cards were comfortable to let him throw 84 pitches and he threw a first strike 73% of the time. The swinging-strike rate was only 7.7% but that’s not exactly what Mikolas does. He still whiffed five hitters and while some of his underlying metrics don’t look very special, this Pirates offense is not anything to fear. Since the deadline, the K rate for the Buccos is 25.5% against righty pitching and they rank 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in that time span. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 Stacks 

I would suspect that the most popular stack would be the Red Sox, and I cannot argue that. They draw John Gant and I will go right back to the lefties even though they let me down last night. Gant is giving up a 17.4% walk rate, a 5.57 FIP, and a 5.62 xFIP against that side of the plate. That leaves us right back with hitters like Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber, and Rafael Devers. I grant you that Devers is really up there so we can look at Kike Hernandez who leads off. Every hitter is over a .320 wOBA and a .170 ISO and Gant is just not a good pitcher. 

I’m also looking at the Giants since Carlos Carrasco has not had much success coming back from injury. Lefties have a .336 wOBA and a 5.05 FIP to go with just a 21.2% K rate. He’s using the fastball almost 40% of the time against lefties and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and LaMonte Wade all have an ISO over .185 against that pitch. Carrasco also allows a 44% hard-hit rate against that side and that trio all sit above a .370 wOBA and a .240 ISO against righties on the season. Don’t forget about Buster Posey if he’s back because Carrasco has actually been worse against righty hitters. 

• Cleveland against Jordan Lyles 
• Marlins against Patrick Corbin 
• Cardinals against Mitch Keller 
• Mariners against Brad Keller 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25

A big thank you to Brian for giving me a day off yesterday and we roll back into MLB action with some heavy hitters on the mound! The name value on this slate is off the charts but I’m not totally sold on exactly how loaded it is. We’ve seen the trend lately of the high-salary arms not always paying off and this strikes me as one of those slates that could play out again. Let’s get into that and a whole lot more in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 and set our foundation for green screens tonight! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

There are technically five pitchers that fit in the Ace Tier by salary, but I’m casting out Yu Darvish off the hop. He’s coming back from the IL and facing the Dodgers. No, thank you. 

Instead, let’s focus on the other side of this game with Walker Buehler. He’s been a dynamo this season with a K rate just under 27%, a walk rate of 6.5%, a 3.13 FIP, and a 29.9% hard-hit rate. The Padres offense isn’t exactly one we target frequently but this is the first time Buehler has been under $10,000 since July 17th in Coors Field. Eight of the last 10 starts have exceeded 26 DK points which is wildly consistent these days. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .259, a 1.04 WHIP, and a .90 HR/9. His two starts against SD have generated 13 IP, 13 K’s, and four ER. He did score under 13 DK in one game solely because he struck out only four. The bottom line is despite the matchup, Buehler is far too cheap. 

We can possibly go double Ace again because Luis Castillo is still under $9,500. Seven of his last 10 starts have gone over 19 DK points and his seasonal K rate has climbed over 23%. We have to point out that since July 1st, Milwaukee has not been the strikeout offense it was through most of the year. They are only sitting at a 21.5% rate in that period and one start is really skewing his numbers lately. He got blistered by Cleveland for eight earned in 3.1 IP but past that, he’s continued to pitch extremely well. Milwaukee should have four lefties and that means a steady dose of four-seam fastballs and changeups. The Brewers are eighth and 16th against those pitches but both have a whiff rate over 31% this year. 

I feel like we should lump Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff together. Both of them have shown significantly wild outcomes lately. Wheeler has seen his K rate drop to around 25% since the start of July and Woodruff is under 24% in August. That’s not to say they can’t have strong starts, but we need to be aware that they have seen some slippage in the main metric we chase. The offenses they face are similar as well. Tampa strikes out more at 25.4% compared to 23.2% for the Reds while both teams are in the top-eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Realistically, none of the four pitchers have an easy matchup and I have them ranked Buehler, Castillo, Wheeler, Woodruff myself. 

Mid-Range Tier 

In honesty, I may well just live in the Mid-Range tonight because there are four potential pitchers here as well. I don’t believe that I will venture under Josiah Gray tonight. He’s only pitched 30 innings in the majors with a 4.59 xFIP, 3.90 ERA, and a 28% K rate. Now, there are some scary metrics like the 60.8% fly-ball rate and the 100% strand rate. At least the hard-hit rate is 31.6% and his swinging-strike stuff has been elite so far at 16.9%. His curve and slider make up around 43% of his mix and they have generated at least a 47.9% whiff rate. The right side of the plate has the higher wOBA but they also sport a higher K rate at 29.3% and a lower xFIP at 4.21. Miami will only have two lefties in the lineup typically and being in Miami will help the fly-ball rate as well. Add in the Marlins still striking out at a 25.2% rate and Gray has plenty of upside with Gray (and downside). 

We also have to mention Lucas Giolito simply because he’s $8,300. He’s been my arch-nemesis this year and Toronto is a terrifying lineup to face. He’s at least somewhat interesting because of the salary and the fact that Toronto is about mid-pack offensively in the past two weeks. That’s a significant downgrade from their seasonal numbers and even though the K rate is just 18.6%, Giolito is super cheap and I doubt carries much interest from the field. The Jays are only 15th against the change and while they have to break out sooner or later, Giolito is a strong play in deep GPP only. 

This game also features Robbie Ray who is yet another dynamic pitcher in a tough spot. On paper, the White Sox are not the offense to attack with a lefty pitcher who throws a fastball almost 60% of the time. The White Sox are ninth against the fastball and they rank inside the top 10 in all of our major offensive categories. The K rate is solid at 23.6% for the White Sox but still, this isn’t an easy path. Ray is a contender for the AL Cy Young with a 30.7% K rate, 3.37 xFIP, and a 2.79 ERA. He’s getting a swinging strike 15.1% of the time which is fourth in the majors. His slider has a whiff rate over 45.5% and 80 strikeouts on the season and the White Sox are 20th against that pitch. Ray shouldn’t be under $9,000 for any slate. 

Last and certainly not least, Shohei Ohtani is likely to be one of the more popular options on the slate. His K rate is 29.6% overall and the Orioles lineup sets Ohtani up for a ceiling-style game. They will generally throw out seven righties and Ohtani has held them to a .233 wOBA, a 2.19 FIP, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 34.7% K rate. Baltimore is 10th in K rate against righty pitching at 24.4% and in the bottom 10 in every offensive category. Ohtani should be able to continue his MVP campaign in this spot and has one of the better matchups on paper on the slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 Stacks 

Two of the best spots in my view aren’t that different than last night and I’m focusing on the Red Sox and Angels. To start, Boston draws Bailey Ober and he’s using his fastball over 55% against each side and it’s giving up a .200 ISO along with a hard-hit rate of 44.7%. I’m going after the lefties in the Red Sox lineup since Ober is allowing a 5.62 FIP, .379 wOBA, and a fly-ball rate over 40%. Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo are all very affordable for their skill set and the first two have ISO’s over .315 against righty fastballs. 

The Angels get Dean Kremer and the Orioles bullpen that had to come to the rescue in the second inning last night. I grant you that stacking the Angels is less fun without Ohtani, but we still have strong options. He’s just getting wrecked by everyone with a wOBA over .360 to each side and an xFIP over 5.40 as well. Jared Walsh, Max Stassi, and Brandon Marsh all have wOBA’s over .320 against righties and fastballs, making this a very easy combo to work with no matter who you’re pitching. 

• Diamondbacks against Mitch Keller 
• Giants against Taijuan Walker 
• Twins against Nick Pivetta 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23

We only get six games of MLB action tonight so we shouldn’t be too surprised that the pitching options aren’t exactly enticing. Even the bigger-name pitchers have flaws for some reason or another tonight. It’s likely not the best cash slate in the world but we’ll find some gems once again in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier

We’re bending the rules a bit because there are only three pitchers that are priced at $8,500 or higher for DK. I feel like Zack Greinke is going to be chalky since he gets the Royals and the field generally wants to anchor to a strong top-tier pitcher. Greinke only has a 17.9% K rate and a 4.36 FIP compared to a 3.43 ERA. To his credit, he does have just a 29.6% hard-hit rate but the swinging-strike rate is 9.2%, the lowest since 2012. It’s also interesting that he has a .332 wOBA against the right side of the plate and the Royals should have five of them in the lineup. His slider has been about his best swing and miss weapon with a 31.9% whiff rate and his changeup has the best wOBA allowed at .193. I totally get the play, but if he’s chalk and we treat the slate like it’s just GPP, I don’t think I’ll head in this direction. 

Maybe I’ve watched too much wrestling this week, but Lance Lynn stands out as a super risky alternative. Listen, I don’t need to spend a lot of time laying out how dangerous the Toronto lineup is. They are top-three in every offensive category we talk about and they only whiff 20.8%. However, this is baseball and a pitcher can shut down an offense on any given day. Ask the Tigers pitching over the weekend. It’s not a chance you should take lightly and it’s the state of the slate that leads me here. Lynn is far better against righties with a .223 wOBA, 2.57 FIP, 32.2% K rate, and a 23% hard-hit rate. Those are some elite metrics and his four-seam/cutter combo both have a whiff rate over 26% and a wOBA under .255. Toronto is top-five against the fastball but they are average against the cutter. I want to see projected popularity before making a call between the two. 

The Mid-Range and Punt Tier 

This is a slate where you’re going to have to make some uncomfortable choices and chase K upside. Enter Huascar Ynoa, now one start into his return from injury. Ynoa only threw 80 pitches last start, suggesting there was a pretty firm pitch count. He left that game with a 3.57 xFIP, 46.2% ground ball rate, and a 13.8% swinging-strike rate so there were plenty of encouraging signs. New York is still striking out at a 25% clip but the offense has been scorching hot since the deadline. Ynoa is also slightly worse against righties, a strong concern. The xFIP is only 3.42 and the hard-hit rate is only 24.4% against that side of the plate though so it’s not like he’s getting mauled. The good news also is he gets after the right side with sliders and that pitch has a 43.6% whiff rate and a .228 wOBA. The Yanks are only 16th against sliders this year, so there is an upside and plenty of risk to Ynoa. 

I’m not sure if there’s a pitcher that I “dislike” playing in DFS more than Kyle Hendricks. I’m not trying to be a jerk but he’s just a very boring fantasy option with a 17.2% K rate and a 4.77 FIP to go with a 1.56 HR/9. The swinging-strike stuff frankly isn’t there with just an 8.9% rate but he is hard to barrel up at 28.2%. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .310 and an xFIP over 4.00, so there’s nothing to write home about there. He’s really only in consideration because it’s the Rockies on the road, but let’s see what weather we get in Wrigley. 

So, here’s something interesting that I have honestly kind of missed lately. We typically stay away from using pitchers against the Astros because we chase strikeouts and that offense does not strikeout. They are under around 22% in about any split you want. However, since the start of July, Houston is not hitting well in a certain split. They are 22nd in average, 27th in OBP, 19th in slugging, 24th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. That split is against lefty pitching and I’m betting Daniel Lynch picks up some steam. He just hung over 23 DK points against this offense, which is good and bad. We know he’s capable of succeeding but Houston will be the first offense to see him a second time since he got called to the majors this time around. He’s getting progressively better results even if the metrics are a mixed bag. Just this past start, he had a 4.55 xFIP but his swinging-strike rate has been above 11% in each of the past three. The ground ball rate has also been above 41% in the past three so he’s just too cheap to not give him a look. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 Honorable Mention 

Alex Manoah – He’s as boom or bust like the rest of the options tonight and we prefer to target the White Sox with righty pitching since they sit at a 23.4% K rate and the second-highest ground ball rate at 47.3%. Manoah has legit strikeout stuff with a K rate over 28% but he just hasn’t learned how to be consistent in the majors quite yet (which is not easy, to be sure). The Sox are projected for six righties, which sort of helps. The wOBA for righty hitters is just .225 but the xFIP is higher at 4.49. This game has a lot of outcomes, but the pitcher’s duel between Lynn and Manoah is not out of the question. 

Humberto Mejia

As of right now, DK does not have Mejia in the player pool. Let’s keep an eye on that but he’s displaying strikeout stuff in AAA. I could be talked into taking a shot pending the price tag if he gets added to the slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 Stacks 

Normally I’m not huge on offenses coming out of Coors but I’ll make an exception against Wil Crowe and the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have hitters that rate well against the fastball, namely Josh Rojas and Ketel Marte. Those hitters also have a wOBA of at least .339 against righties with an ISO over .120. Crowe is giving up at least a .325 wOBA against each side of the plate and an xFIP of 5.14 against lefties. Daulton Varsho has been white-hot lately, hitting almost .500 across his last 10 and comes super cheap. Outside of Rojas and Marte, nobody is pricey and we can afford who we like. 

Instead of talking about another full-stack, I just want to direct attention to a punt shortstop in Nicky Lopez. Here’s a fun article from baseballsavant.com and across the past 10 games, he’s hitting .381 with eight stolen bases. Houston doesn’t stand out in that respect per se but Lopez has yet to be caught stealing and he only has 18 steals on the season. That means he’s been given the green light a lot more recently and is due to hit second in the lineup. With Greinke generating a 53.2% ground ball rate against lefties, there’s plenty of chance Lopez beats one out or gets a seeing-eye single. 

• A’s righties against Marco Gonzales
• Cubs against Antonio Senzatela 
• Mariners against Pete Blackburn 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21

We do have split slates this Saturday in MB, but the five-game slate in the evening looks a little rough. It’s likely to be heavy chalk in the pitching spots like we say Thursday so we’re going to look into the nine-game slate in the afternoon. There are far more options on that slate, so let’s get moving for MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 and lay our foundation for green!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 – Main Targets 

There are technically four pitchers that qualify for the ace tier, but let’s be real. We’re deciding between Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. I’m not messing with Kevin Gausman or Sean Manaea on this slate, especially the latter as Manaea has gotten mashed lately. Cole came back from Covid and threw just 90 pitches, but whiffed nine hitters and scored 31 DK. Cole still features a 34.7% K rate with a WHIP under 1.00 and the Twins should have a slight lean of being righty-heavy. That would help Cole out with a .230 wOBA and a 2.58 FIP. However, the four lefties could help raise the K ceiling since Cole has a 39.7% rate against that side of the plate. Minnesota is 11th in K rate against righties since the deadline. In the 22 IP since the second half kicked off, Cole is rocking a 40.4% K rate and a 2.37 xFIP. We can safely say he got his issues figured out after the sticky stuff crackdown. 

I do prefer Cole, but let’s not sell Mad Max short either. He’s been a bit more up and down lately and he’s only exceeded 25 DK points once in the past 10 starts. I grant you that one of those starts was only 3.1 IP due to rain and he had put up 17.7 in that time frame, but the Mets aren’t exactly a high-K team. Even lately when they have been putrid on offense, the K rate is barely over 23% despite being 26th in wOBA and wRC+. The Mets will likely put out six lefties and that could potentially temper the K ceiling for Scherzer. His K rate is 32.4% (not like that’s terrible at all) and the xFIP is 3.99, so there is some slight danger. What I don’t really love against lefty-lade lineups for Scherzer is it takes his slider out of play. He’s only thrown four total to lefties all year and that pitch has the highest whiff rate of his mix at 44%. If the popularity between these two is wildly different, we can use that in GPP. All things being equal, I’ll take Cole. 

The Mid-Range 

Things get a little ugly after the Aces on this slate and we’re probably picking between Triston McKenzie or Hyun Jin Ryu. Both of these pitchers have some significant risk, but such is life on this nine-game affair. McKenzie is interesting because I think some may chase the game log after he whiffed 11 and almost threw a no-hitter. He also threw about 15-20 pitches more than he has in his last 10 starts, which is a concern this time around. Throwing that many more pitches can be problematic and his xFIP in his past eight games has cleared 4.80 four times. There has been plenty of doing bullets and one of the most important factors with McKenzie is first strikes. When he throws them at a high rate, he can incorporate his curve and slider more. These pitches have a whiff rate over 43% and wOBA’s under .255. The start against the White Sox where he got tagged saw him throw just a 47.4% first-strike rate. In turn, the fastball was over 72%. The splits really aren’t a big deal for him but it makes us nervous when a key for him is something we have no idea if he’ll manage to do it. 

Ryu has been wildly difficult to get right all season long. He worked Boston and Cleveland for over 25 DK points each but then went for -10.4 and 9.3 in his last two starts. At $8,000, the K rate of just 19.5% is tough to back as well, especially considering Detroit has been much better against southpaws (not named Robbie Ray). Having said that, the hard-hit rate is 28.4% and the ground ball rate is 46.5%, not too shabby. His swinging-strike rate is down 2.5% from last year at 9.3% and it looks like his four-seam and changeup could be the culprits. Last year, the change was his most-used pitch and had a .240 wOBA with a 30.6% whiff rate. This year, it’s down to a 21.4% whiff rate and a .313 wOBA. That’s helped make him lean on the four-seam more often and it’s giving up a .350 wOBA. I’m definitely not excited, but he’s in GPP consideration. I also wouldn’t argue with one or two Detroit righties since he has a 4.12 xFIP against that side of the plate. 

The Punt Range 

Things have gotten progressively better for Reid Detmers through three big league starts, culminating in 24.5 DK points in the last outing. The young lefty held Houston down for six innings with only one earned run allowed and six strikeouts, much more in line with expectations. Cleveland has climbed towards the middle of the pack against lefties since July and they only strike out 22.6% of the time. Still, Detmers is throwing a solid mix of pitches, using a curve and slider mix around 52% of the time. Those two pitches have combined for 12 strikeouts out of 13 so far, have wOBA’s under .245, and whiff rates over 25%. Cleveland is 24th against the curve and 12th against the slider (but -10.7). It’s a leap of faith on talent, but he shouldn’t be quite this cheap. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 Stacks 

Ghost is going to be a happy man because we’re sacking Blue Jays today! They get Wily Peralta of the Tigers and he’s looking like a blow-up ready to happen against righties especially. Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez all have wOBA’s over .350 and ISO’s over .170 on the season against righties and that trio kills righty fastballs, all over a .288 ISO. Peralta’s fastball has allowed a .235 ISO, 45.3% hard-hit rate, and a 314-foot average distance. Peralta is also giving up a .342 wOBA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.70 FIP, and a 5.41 xFIP against righties. We can throw Corey Dickerson in for fun since he’s been hitting fifth in this lineup and Peralta is still at a 4.80 FIP against lefties. 

Now, this approach is going to have to stomach a Cole/Detmers pairing at pitcher but I’m really not happy with the mid-range today. With some of the Jays and that pair at pitcher, we can actually fit in some Rays against Dallas Keuchel. My two favorites are Mike Zunino and Randy Arozarena. Zunino has destroyed lefties across 94 PA with a .512 ISO, 1.272 OPS, and a .517 wOBA. Those aren’t typos. To add to his dominance, his hit lefty sinkers to a .321 ISO and .403 wOBA while Keuchel throws his sinker 33.3% of the time. Arozarena has a whopping .579 ISO and .704 wOBA against the sinker (albeit in a smaller sample but still), and he’s hit lefties with a .391 wOBA and .244 ISO this year. 

• Brewers against Paulo Espino 
• Nationals against Eric Lauer 
• Giants against Sean Manaea
• Mariners against Jake Odorizzi 
• Royals against Keegan Thompson 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20

Friday means we have a ton of baseball action on the diamond tonight and we have some choices as far as pitching goes! Pitchers like Chris Sale, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito, and Lance McCullers are all on the bump tonight, which is a welcome change. Since we have a ton of options, let’s get rolling in MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 and figure out where the best paths to glory are! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

This tier is fairly loaded tonight but only one pitcher is above $10,000 in Walker Buehler. However, I’m starting my lineups with Chris Sale and I expect him to be the most popular option in this tier. Sale looked every bit as good as we’ve come to know over his career in his first start in almost two years. Sale whiffed eight hitters across five innings and threw 89 pitches. His velocity was almost exactly what it was in 2019 and he generated an 18% swinging-strike rate. The ground ball rate was over 58% and the hard-hit rate was only 16.7%, all very encouraging signs for Sale. Factor in the Texas lineup that is bottom-five in every category against lefties since the deadline (and the fact the field has loved picking on the Rangers as of late), we can see a ceiling for Sale and his popularity. 

While I believe Sale is the clear best play in the tier, the next player gets harder to peg. My initial lean is Robbie Ray, as he comes into this start scoring over 21 DK in three of his past four and continuing to be one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball. I said what I said because he’s been a K machine for fantasy and the Blue Jays have badly needed his stability in their rotation. Playing Sale and Ray together could be tough with $3,700 left per hitter but let’s deal with that later. The Tigers aren’t the cakewalk matchup for lefty pitching it used to be as they are first (yes, first) in wRC+ since July 1st against lefties. The K rate is down to 21.3% in that time and the ISO is fifth. Ray does carry a 30.3% K rate into the spot and Detroit is 18th against fastballs, which could save him. Ray is using the fastball about 60% of the time so there is a risk here. Still, he’s been so good all year and this isn’t the first tough matchup he’s seen. 

The last player of the three that will be main targets for me is Lance McCullers. He walks into this start with a 27.7% K rate and while the walks are always a risk at 11.7%, Seattle is over a 25% K rate against righties and inside the top-five in that metric. hey also rank 29th in ground ball rate which is interesting because McCullers would rank third if he qualified at 53.8%. The hitch for McCullers is the splits really do not work for him in this spot. Lefties have a .339 wOBA, a 4.30 xFIP, and the K rate drops to 24.3% which helps his WHIP climb up to 1.60. In the one start he’s had against the Mariners, McCullers did whiff eight and cleared 20 DK points. He uses the curve so much to lefties, 383 out of 395 total thrown and that’s also a small concern since Seattle is top 12 against the pitch. My current plan is to take just one from the Ace Tier because there are some good offenses in blow-up spots tonight. 

Ace Tier Honorable Mention 

Do I think Walker Buehler is going to continue riding his streak of scoring at least 26 DK in seven of his last 10 starts? It’s pretty likely but I don’t think he possesses the ceiling to make it worth paying up at this highest salary on the slate. It’s tough to see him pitching better against the Mets than he just did with 10 strikeouts across seven innings which caps him around 30 DK. Sale has the same ceiling, as does Ray and Lucas Giolito. Now, I’m not playing Giolito against the Rays even though he is the lowest-priced of the Ace Tier. Giolito does at least have lefties on lock this year with a .278 wOBA but it’s interesting because the xFIP is almost identical to each side of the plate. Tampa is seventh and 13th against the fastball and change, the main pitches for Giolito. 

The Mid-Range 

This spot is fascinating for Sonny Gray, both from the matchup perspective and what the field will do with him. On the surface, a righty with a K rate of 28.5% and a 3.79 FIP going against the Marlins at $8,400 should be chalky. They are over 25% in K rate against righties and are 19th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS this year. The issues come from Gray pounding sinkers against righty hitters, 354 out of 469 times this year. His next highest pitch is the slider at 212 and that pitch does have a whiff rate over 40% but the sinker is allowing a .340 wOBA and seven of his 12 home runs. The Marlins are 29th against the fastball but Gray has a .367 wOBA, a 4.05 xFIP, and a 1.67 WHIP against righties. Miami is projected to have six righties in their lineup and if Gray is overwhelming chalk, I think it’s time to get away in GPP. 

Here’s the portion where I’m going to hate myself, but we have to talk about Blake Snell since he’s at home. It’s impossible not to mention his home/road splits this year, even if that isn’t my favorite metric ever. In San Diego, he’s been the ace the Padres thought they were getting with a 2.40 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 34.2% K rate, and a 1.13 WHIP. Even though the Phillies can load up with righty hitters, he’s half them to a .288 wOBA at home with a 30% K rate. Philly is not the easiest spot on paper since they are inside the top 12 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They do at least strike out 25.1% of the time (although as a team, they’ve been much tougher against lefties since July 1). I have a feeling the field will love Snell again which would leave him off my GPP list. For once, I actually understand why the love could be there. 

The Mid-Range Honorable Mention 

Elieser Hernandez starts again for the Marlins and I think the slate is a little too big to try and play him, but he has very tangible upside. The K rate is 26.5% and the swinging-strike rate is 13.6%, while his slider has generated a .113 wOBA and a 35.1% whiff rate. The issue is his four-seam is over a .400 wOBA and the Reds punish that pitch, fourth-ranked in the majors. Over his career, he’s also surrendered a .350 wOBA against lefties to go with a 5.49 xFIP. I won’t be surprised if he has a good start, but I do like other options a good bit better. 

The Punt Tier 

He’s coming back from the 60-day IL, which can be worrisome but Miles Mikolas is at a solid price point and he pitched seven innings in the last rehab start. There’s no concern about the workload and Mikolas is a ground ball pitcher when he’s rolling, with rates over 44% against each side of the plate in his career. Pittsburgh is eighth in ground ball rate this season (fourth since the deadline). Since they traded Adam Frazier, their numbers after the deadline are notable and they are bottom-four in all of our offensive categories. They’re whiffing over 25% of the time and hitting .199. I mean, Mitch White just dropped a 30-burger on this offense. I’ll take my chances. 

Lastly, Austin Gomber makes the cut with Arizona becoming much more of a mixed bag against lefties this season. They used to be a stealthy smash offense but now sit 11th in ground ball rate, 16th in slugging, 20th in ISO, and 16th in wRC+. Gomber has a seriously wide range of outcomes tonight and it also continues to be confusing how he’s dominating in Coors but dreadful on the road. I suppose the xFIP is the same regardless of venue but he’s produced a 23.3% K rate and an ERA under 2.00 in Colorado this season. He shouldn’t be under $6,000 and I do have an interest. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 Stacks 

Do you guys remember how in the past few days we’ve been torturing the Orioles pitching staff and the Rays scored like 80 runs in those games? Tonight isn’t the night to stop that trend with the Atlanta Braves riding into town, gaining a DH spot for the weekend. Lefty Keegan Akin is the sacrificial lamb, uh, I mean starter in this spot. He sports a .391 wOBA against righties to go with a 1.80 WHIP and a fly-ball rate over 40%. Every pitch in his mix gives up at least a .366 wOBA. 

I’m starting a new paragraph to stress this point. 

Start this stack with Freddie Freeman. 

First off, I don’t care it’s a lefty on lefty matchup. If you’re not expecting Akin to last long, it’s not that important. Secondly, Freeman is at a .355 wOBA against lefties and is one of the top 20 fastball hitters in all of baseball. He’s averaging almost 12 DK points over his last 10 games (skewed a bit by a cycle game, but still) and Akin is over a .400 wOBA against lefties. Freeman being the fourth-most expensive Brave hitter is theft. 

My goal here is to squeeze in Freeman and then one of Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley. I’m leaning a bit toward Riley as he’s also in the top 25 in baseball against the fastball this year and has a .315 wOBA. Albies has him beat in wOBA at .405 and ISO at .286, but Riley is far superior against righty pitching. Again, if you think Akin gets smacked, play the stack in that fashion. We can also utilize Guillermo Heredia since he’s fifth on the team against fastballs and has a .354 wOBA against lefties with a .197 ISO. Salary is getting tight but we may be able to squeeze in Jorge Soler as well, who has smashed lefties with a .296 ISO while on the Braves. 

If you ride with Sale and a Punt Tier pitcher, you can actually afford some Coors exposure and the may well be my plan for the evening. Tyler Gilbert is coming off throwing a no-hitter and congratulations to him. It’s an incredible accomplishment and he’s one of just four players to do it in his first career start. It’s a great story but now he has to walk into Coors and I’m targeting Connor Joe and Brendan Rodgers. Both players are under a 19% K rate against lefties with a wOBA of at least .397 and an ISO of .279. Gilbert had a 4.44 xFIP against righties and a massive 58.3% fly-ball rate. That is terrifying and my goal is to get Braves and Rockies in there this evening. 

• Blue Jays against Tyler Alexander 
• Yankees against Charlie Barnes
• Angels against Sam Hentges 
• Padres against Matt Moore 
• Dodgers against Carlos Carrasco 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18

It’s Wednesday and we have a split slate of MLB action with five games in the afternoon and then ten games at night. We’re going to just outline an approach for the afternoon and then adjust once we see what the field is doing and then attack the main slate. We have plenty of work to do in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 so let’s get moving and lay our foundations for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 – Early Approach 

The early slate for me is about jamming in as many Rockies hitters as I possibly can. Jake Arrieta is making his Padres debut in Coors Field and that is a recipe for a massive disaster. He’s rocking a 6.88 ERA with a 6.12 FIP to go along with a 2.19 HR/9 and both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .390. Give me all the Rockies with Trevor Story as the centerpiece since he mashes righty sinkers with a .450 wOBA and .298 ISO. Arrieta is throwing his sinker 62% against righty hitting and it has a .231 ISO on the season. 

What I’m hoping for is some punt hitting on getaway days because the pitching is pretty lackluster. Jose Berrios and Tyler Mahle will stand out and I’m sure that’s the chalk pairing with Rockies hitters because Colorado is cheap across the board. Mahle especially is appealing with a 28.4% K rate against this putrid Cubs lineup. We can use projected ownership in the morning to find the edge but in a general sense, this slate is super clear cut for me. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 – Main Slate 

The Ace Tier 

There are four pitchers that qualify for the Ace Tier tonight and I think my favorite pairing may well be Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. This sets up as a massive ceiling spot for Peralta as far as the splits go because the Cards are righty-heavy and Peralta is at his best against that side of the plate. His K rate is a gaudy 40.9% against righties and the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.21/2.60. The easiest way to illustrate that is the usage of the slider, which is mostly against righty hitters. His slider is ranked as the 10th best on FanGraphs but it also has a 44.7% whiff rate, .222 wOBA, and has 57 strikeouts. An added bonus is the Cards are 27th against the fastball and he has 90 strikeouts with that pitch and a 30.4% whiff rate. This spot is spectacular on paper. 

Opposite Peralta on the mound tonight is Flaherty, who threw 81 pitches in his first start back and racked up 26.3 DK points. His K rate is 26.3% and the Brewers are still inside the top 12 in K rate at 24.3% against righty pitching. His slider/curve mix both feature a whiff rate over 36% and wOBA’s under .275 to go along with a four-seam that has 33 strikeouts (the most for him). The swinging-strike rate is almost 12% Lefties are the better side of the plate but they still only have a .266 wOBA and a hard-hit rate under 30%. We saw a pitching duel last night and could well see another tonight. 

The duo of Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn round out the Ace Tier and I’m willing to bet that Morton could be the chalkiest of the bunch. We saw Huascar Ynoa carry some significant popularity last night and while the prices aren’t the same, Morton has paid off for the field plenty of times lately. His K rate overall is 28% and his last start against Miami generated over 30 DK points. The sort of odd part is his K rate dips slightly against righty hitters to 26.1% and the WHIP crawls higher to 1.18. The Marlins are still a very poor offense but they do rank 13th against the curve. That is Morton’s main pitch, but if Flaherty is far less popular, I’m going to prefer him in GPP. 

Last on the list (but certainly not in my heart) is Lynn. My spirit animal is still a very strong option on the night with a 28.1% K rate but he needs to draw the correct lineup in my eyes. The big man keeps both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA but also sees a steep decline in his K rate against lefty hitters. It dips to 23.3% and the walk rate spikes to 10.3% with a 4.71 xFIP. The current projected A’s lineup has six righties in it, which plays into his 33.6% K rate and 3.00 xFIP against that side of the plate. Oakland is average against the fastball and cutter with a 22.9% K rate as a team, so we need the lineup to really decide here. 

The Mid-Range 

We’re really down to just two options and my current plan is to stick to one of the six pitchers outlined in both Tiers. Shohei Ohtani leads the charge in the Mid-Range with the Tigers sitting second in K rate at 25.9% and Ohtani featuring a 29.7% rate himself. Detroit is just 16th in walk rate which should temper the walks Ohtani can run into with his 10.3% rate. Ohtani has generated a 13.2% swinging-strike rate and a 3.24 FIP and there’s really one hitch in the plan for this spot. Detroit is projected to use five lefties, which could crimp the upside. Ohtani “only” has a 25% K rate against lefties and a 3.84 xFIP while righties feature a 34.8% K rate. I’ve found this odd all season because he uses the splitter more against lefties and that pitch has been evil with a 53.2% whiff rate and a .106 wOBA. I don’t think Detroit is good enough to kill Ohtani but I believe I’ll prefer Flaherty. 

I can’t say that I’ll be totally shocked to see Morton paired with Marco Gonzales as one of (if not the chalkiest pair) on the evening. Now, I totally understand why Gonzales could be popular. He was pushing 45% in GPP for the last start and he had an absolute ceiling game of 41 DK points on the back of a complete game and nine strikeouts. That’s simply not going to happen again but the price is still appealing for a much more realistic 20+ DK points against the same Ranger lineup. Since the deadline, they are the stone worst offense against lefty pitching, sitting 30th in every category except ISO (27th). The season stats against righties don’t look good at all with a 5.53 xFIP and .376 wOBA but we just saw that Texas isn’t likely to take advantage of it. 

The Punt Tier 

The Dodgers will use Mitch White for the bulk of the innings tonight and he’s about the only pitcher I’d want to take a shot on in this range. It might look scary since the Pirates are sending 5-6 lefties in their lineup because White has a .371 wOBA against them. However, we’re only talking 58 batters faced and they have a .364 BABIP and a 27.6% K rate. That should unlock the K ceiling (as much as it is for White and his 23.6% rate so far). White is throwing his fastball about 53% of the time and the Buccos continue to be dead last against that pitch. I don’t think we need to dip this far, but it’s at least in consideration. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 Stacks 

It’s Andrew Heaney Day in Yankee Stadium and that’s all that really needs to be said. In his three starts with the Yanks so far, he’s given up 15 earned runs and eight home runs. I’m pretty sure Jose Abreu obliterated 18 corn stalks with his dong in the Field of Dreams game, but I digress. The Red Sox are a bit cold right now but Heaney continues to pound his fastball over 55% of the time even with his new team. That’s an issue since it has a .265 ISO and has given up 13 home runs, a 48% hard-hit rate, and a 301-foot average distance. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Kike Hernandez, Bobby Dalbec, and Christian Vazquez ALL have an ISO over .230 and a wOBA over .355 against lefty fastballs. My plan is to try to squeeze in Martinez and Bogaerts with a mix of Renfroe, Dalbec, and Vazquez. Hernandez is still a very solid play and all these hitters have a wOBA over .345 on the season against lefty pitching. 

Now, the goal here is to jam in Rays alongside Boston. It’s not going to be easy and we need lineups to make it all work, but they face Spenser Watkins and the Orioles bullpen. Tampa has hammered this team for 18 runs so far and it’s time for the Captain. 

Austin Meadows is up first for me since 11 of his home runs have come against fastballs this season and Watkins is seeing his get hit for a 55% hard-hit rate and a .347 wOBA. Meadows has a .306 ISO against righties on the year and Watkins has produced just a 17.8% K rate against lefties. I also love Randy Arozarena since he hammers righty fastballs for a 327-foot average distance and a .324 ISO. Watkins has been reverse-splits with a 6.04 xFIP against the right side of the plate so far. We can also mix and match hitters like Brandon Lowe(highest ISO against righty fastballs on the team at .398), Nelson Cruz, and Wander Franco but that will take sacrificing some of the Red Sox. 

• Atlanta against Jesus Luzardo 
• Phillies against MadBum
• Dodgers against JT Brubaker
• Seattle (mini stack only) against Folty 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17

We are back for a jam-packed Tuesday night slate and a big thank you to Brian for covering me yesterday! It’s great to have one of the best minds in DFS back from the wilderness (the man hit like 7,245 home runs calls last night) and we have another fun slate tonight. For once, the MLB DFS Starting Rotation actually looks like it might have a bunch of options so let’s go to work and lay our foundation for green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 – Main Targets 

Note – With NFL around the corner and starting to demand attention, we’re going to tweak the format in the article a bit. I want to promise that the amount of work being done is the exact same and will not change even when NFL officially starts. The new format will just allow me to streamline things just a little to get ideas on paper. Let’s continue to find great pitching options! 

The Ace Tier 

I’m generally going to be reserving this tier for any pitcher over $9,000 on DK moving forward and there are seven pitchers in that range tonight. In my eyes, there will be two main targets and then one honorable mention, and the two that I really like are Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez. 

Let’s get the obvious out there and say that the odds of Burnes replicating his massive 49 DK from the last start are virtually nil. Having said that, his salary actually went down which is fairly egregious. The matchup is still string but the Cardinals whiff just 22% of the time as opposed to the nearly 30% the Cubs have been sporting lately. St. Louis is also in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching. They do rank 12th against the cutter which is a small concern but at the same time, only four pitches have a higher FanGraphs rating than a Burnes cutter (Brandon Woodruff, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler with fastballs, and Charlie Morton curveballs). Perhaps the best aspect is Burnes has been death against righty hitting with a .217 wOBA, 2.01 xFIP, 39.3% K rate, and a 24% hard-hit rate. The Cards project for six righties and the pitcher spot, perfect for another strong showing from Burnes. 

I do very much prefer Burnes in part because Valdez does only have a 22.3% K rate and the Royals are not a heavy strikeout offense at just 20.8%, second-lowest in baseball. However, they are also third in ground ball rate at 46.3% on the year while Valdez has generated a massive 69.4% ground ball rate himself. He may not have the highest strikeout upside on the slate, but he could make up for that by going seven innings deep and not allowing very much production. He uses his curveball about 30% of the time, especially to righty hitters, and the Royals project to have seven in the lineup. That pitch has a 43.3% whiff rate with just a .182 wOBA given up. The only real issue here is the K rate drops a bit against righties and on paper, Burnes has the clearer path to a ceiling game. 

Ace Tier Honorable Mention 

Chris Bassitt – The matchup isn’t going to be the easiest as the White Sox get healthy but Bassitt might be one of the most underappreciated pitchers of the season. The White Sox are still second in ground ball rate against righty pitching this season which is a big plus for Bassitt. He sports a 50.7% ground ball rate and a 24.2% hard-hit rate against righty hitters, which the Sox project to have six of. If he’s very unpopular, the 25.3% K rate could survive this lineup. 

The Mid-Range Tier 

Normally, this range will be in the $8,900-$7,500 range, give or take. I really like some of the pitchers in this portion of the salary grid tonight, starting with Alek Manoah. He sports a 29.3% K rate on the season and all of his main three pitches have a wOBA under .260 and whiff rates of at least 26%. He’s another pitcher coming off a ceiling game of 32 DK and seeing his price dip to a very affordable point. You can make the case that Washington rolling out a lineup with a projected four lefties is a concern. Manoah has seen some sharp splits in the early stages of his career and lefties have got him for a .317 wOBA. However, two points have me a little less worried. First, the BABIP is .308 and the xFIP is .344. Second, the lefties in the Nationals lineup (outside of the awesome Juan Soto) all sit under a .320 wOBA. Manoah is also whiffing that side over 32% so it’s a good mix for him tonight. 

Tanner Houck is the next man up and the Yankee lineup can be had against righty pitching. He’s been phenomenal through 30.2 IP with a 1.84/2.21 FIP/xFIP combo to go along with his 2.93 ERA. The K rate is approaching 35% and the walk rate is under 6% with a fly-ball rate of just 28.8%. His slider has generated a 39.2% whiff rate and a 13.4% swinging-strike rate overall. Both sides of the plate are under a .290 wOBA and he’s actually been even nastier against the right side with a K rate of 39.7%, a 1.37 FIP, and a 2.00 xFIP. Since he gets the second game of a doubleheader, he’ll face a tired lineup and could even catch them sitting a player or two. 

Logan Webb has some interest but I think we need to understand the difference in the matchup between his last start and tonight. The Mets are a tougher cookie than the Rockies on the road the most worrisome part is Webb is worse against lefties. They have a .300 wOBA but they also only have a 2.97 xFIP and Webb has a 29.2% K rate at home. The Mets are seventh in ground ball rate against righty pitching and Webb has generated a 60.2% ground ball rate. My largest fear with Webb in this spot is his slider is his best pitch with 43 strikeouts, a .193 wOBA, and a 46% whiff rate. The issues stem from out of 354 sliders this year, only 106 have been throw to lefty hitters. 

We get Huascar Ynoa back tonight as he’s finished with his rehab and he threw over 80 pitches in the last start, erasing any real fears about a pitch count. Miami is just 16th against the slider but firmly in the negative ratings at -13.4 while that is the primary pitch for Ynoa. In his 44.2 IP, he racked up a 3.18 xFIP and 3.02 ERA with a 27.9% K rate. That’s immense for this salary and he has a 46.6% ground ball rate on top of that. The 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 31.6% CSW is pretty elite as well, salary considered. The slider was incredible at the start of the season with a .234 wOBA and a 42.8% whiff rate. If it maintained the FanGraphs rating it earned this year across 120 innings, it would rank as the best slider in baseball. Maybe that’s not fair to just extrapolate the number, but it tells you how nasty that pitch was. Here’s a huge caveat – he was way worse against righties with a .340 wOBA but the xFIP is also 3.43. Miami is whiffing at a 25.1% rate and I do like Ynoa, but if he’s chalky I think he could wind up being a very smart fade. 

Mid-Range Honorable Mention 

German Marquez – I’m really not going to go here against the Padres but Marquez has been very good even in Coors. He has a 3.05 ERA, .258 wOBA, 3.49 xFIP, and a 24.4% K rate. Maybe the most impressive aspect is the 0.44 HR/9 but the Padres have the third-lowest K rate against righty pitching. I may just not be heavy on Padres hitters as opposed to playing Marquez himself. 

The Punt Tier 

When we’re in this range, there will always be some major risk and that’s just going to come with the territory. You can build some crazy offensive lineups with Taylor Hearn as an SP2 on DK since he’s only $4,700. Through 60.2 IP, Hearn has put some solid metrics on paper with a 24.2% K rate and 4.01 ERA/4.66 xFIP. The righties in the Seattle lineup are a concern as Hearn has given up a .350 wOBA and a 5.08 xFIP against them. However, Seattle could have four lefties in the lineup and that’s been where Hearn has been very good with a 29.3% K rate and just a 3.52 FIP. Against lefty pitching, Seattle is 25th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, OPS, and they strike out 26.2% of the time. Hearn also uses the fastball about 54% of the time and the Mariners rank 28th against that pitch. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 Stacks 

I’m surprised to see how affordable the Dodgers are tonight against Wil Crowe and the Pirates bullpen. Crowe is getting hit hard from each side of the plate and righties have a .410 wOBA against him with a 6.55 FIP. Let’s start on that side with Trea and Justin Turner, both of who hit righty fastballs to the tune of an ISO over .205 and a wOBA over .375. They both have a wOBA over .350 against righties overall this season and I want one of them, likely siding with Trea ahead of Justin. 

The main reason I only want one of those hitters is that I want lefty Max Muncy who destroys righty fastballs with a .443 ISO, .476 wOBA, 55% hard-hit rate, and a 317-foot average distance. He also carries a 16.2% walk rate, a .283 ISO, and .397 wOBA against righties in general. I will also happily take the discounted Cody Bellinger, who looks like he’s waking up from a terrible season so far. He’s averaging 10 DK points across his last 10 games and starting to show some life. We can maybe even squeeze in Corey Seager if we get the right cheap stack since the Dodgers are so underpriced in general. I want to see their lineup but I’ll be interested in just about any Dodger this evening. 

• Astros against Daniel Lynch (cheaper righty hitters)
• Rays against John Means (cheaper righty hitters)
• Tigers against Dylan Bundy 
• Twins against Eli Morgan 
• Blue Jays against Erick Fedde 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!