MLB DFS GPP

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6

We only have seven games on the slate for tonight and there are some appealing options at pitcher, but it’s not a great slate overall. I don’t think we’ll have any cheaper options so we’ll need to find some gems in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6 – Main Target 

Ace Tier 

We have four pitchers in this tier and I’m not sure how much we should like any of them. Zack Wheeler checks in as the most expensive option but he’s only scored more than 20 DK in three of his last 10 games. He’s also trending down through his metrics as his K rate has gone down every single month, finishing at just 24.7% in August. Wheeler also had a 3.61 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP, both the highest marks of the season. Milwaukee is also ninth against the fastball and that is thrown by Wheeler 42% of the time and has 94 strikeouts. I’m not overly thrilled to pay top dollar for Wheeler in his current form. 

Chris Sale is also not really in my pool since the Rays are All Elite across the board against lefties, especially since the trade deadline. They only whiff 20.4% of the time and are top-four in every offensive category we value. That includes first in OBP and wRC+ and Sale couldn’t break 10 DK against them five days ago. He likely strikes out more than three hitters this time around, but there is no discount to be had on his salary. 

We played Brandon Woodruff last time out due to the fact he faced a lot of lefties and he is his better side of the plate with a 31.3% K rate and a .223 wOBA compared to .265 and 28.5% against the right side. Philly is projected to be balanced with four of each handedness and if that’s the case, I will feel better about Woodruff. He’s been very up and down lately as well with five of the last 10 under 16 DK. He’s mixing up his pitches a to, topping out at 33.7% for his four-seam. That is his go-to strikeout pitch with 99 on the season (no other pitch has more than the curve at 41) and no pitch has a wOBA higher than a .296 wOBA. I feel like he could be the favorite since the Phillies are 20th against the fastball on the season.

I feel like Sonny Gray could be the choice of the field since the Cubs have such strong strikeout tendencies, but man has he been a roller coaster this year. His 10.8% swinging-strike rate is in line with a normal season for him but he’s either been pretty good or he’s gotten smacked on the mound this year. The Cubs are projected to have four lefties in the lineup and that’s good news. Gray has been better against lefties with a 30.5% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and a .289 wOBA. The Cubbies have a 29.8% K rate since July 31st and I can’t really argue with attacking them, even if Gray gives us some heartburn. 

In honesty, the only path I’m that interested in is playing one of these four (likely driven in part by projected rostership) and paring him with Tarik Skubal. The biggest issue in his profile continues to be his four-seam fastball, which has a .421 wOBA and 19 of his 30 home runs. Past that, every pitch is below the .300 wOBA mark and has a whiff rate over 30% except his sinker. Pittsburgh has been dead last against the fastball through most of the season, and that’s with Bryan Reynolds ranking in the top 20 against the pitch. hey also sit 22nd or lower in every category we talk about and whiff 22.5% of the time. That isn’t a ton, but Skubal has a 26.4% K rate and he was at 28.7% through August with a 3.40 xFIP and a 3.25 ERA. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6 Stacks 

The first team I’m going after is going to be a pretty narrow three-man stack for the Royals because they get Baltimore lefty starter Zac Lowther. He’s only pitched 8.1 innings in the majors but has a FIP of 5.80 and a hard-hit rate of 48.1%. He’s used the fastball 60% for the time and the trio of Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi, and Michael A. Taylor are who I’m chasing. The first two (and you could just pair them up if you like) destroy lefties with a wOBA over .430 and ISO’s over .365. Mondesi is only in 18 PA, but you still get the idea. They all hit the lefty fastball well and even when the matchup switches to a righty pitcher, the first two are over a .333 wOBA. Taylor is only at a .278 wOBA but can swipe a bag or two and is too cheap to add to a stack. 

How about we stay in that game and stack up some Baltimore hitters? Kris Bubic has a .363 wOBA, 5.75 FIP, a 1.59 WHIP, and just a 20.5% K rate against the right side. The Orioles should counter with hitters like Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, and Jorge Mateo who all have a wOBA over .325 and an ISO over .225 against lefty pitching. Bubic also throws a fastball over 50% of the time and that trio is going to have their way with it. Mancini is at a .521 wOBA and .485 ISO whip Hays is at a .277 ISO and Mateo has a 57% hard-hit rate with a 321-foot average distance. All three of these hitters are over 320-feet and this game should see some fireworks. 

• Tigers against Bryse Wilson 
• Mets against Patrick Corbin 
• Nationals against Trevor Williams (tough to fit Sal Perez and Juan Soto, a big reason I left the Nationals out)
• Jays against Jameson Taillon 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5

It’s one of the smaller Sunday slates with only 10 games and we have some heavy hitters on the mound, as it were. I don’t think we have any real cheap options tonight but we learned a few nights ago working with double aces is very possible in any slate. Let’s got moving in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 and figure out who we’re pitching and the stacks to compliment them!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

We only have three ace-level players as far as salary goes and I have to believe that Robbie Ray will be the most-rostered pitcher on this slate. He very much should be as he is on a tear, pushing Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young. It is of small concern that Oakland is the best team against the slider in the league and Ray has 99 strikeouts with that pitch. It also has a .218 wOBA and a 46.4% whiff rate so it’s a strength for both sides. That pitch is ranked sixth among sliders on FanGraphs this season so even with small concerns, Ray is an elite play. He’s striking out righties at a 31.7% clip and only has a 1.06 WHIP against them as well. Despite likely facing eight righties, Ray is pitching so incredibly well and he’s walked through difficult matchups in this stretch before. 

I’m looking to play Ray and Corbin Burnes together in all honesty. Theoretically, this brings out the best outcomes for Burnes since he’s nastier against righties with a 37.1% K rate, a 1.52 FIP, 2.30 xFIP, .209 wOBA, and a 0.81 WHIP. Six of the eight hitters not counting the pitcher should be righty for the Cards today He’s started three games against the Cards this year and the floor has been 21 DK in those starts. St. Louis does rank 11th against the cutter but they are also bottom 10 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS against righties this year and Burnes feels among the “safer” picks on the slate. I can’t wait for that phrase to bite me. 

Last but certainly not least, Dylan Cease has to be in the running as well. He’s rocking a 30.8% K rate and the FIP/xFIP combo is under 3.90. His pitch mix could be especially nice in this spot because he has a four-seam/slider combo that he throws 76% of the time. They’ve accounted for 129 strikeouts on the season and the slider is fantastic at a 47.6% whiff rate and a .262 wOBA. Kansas City is bottom 12 against both pitches but they are worse against the fastball and Cease does have a .344 wOBA against that pitch. He is reverse splits and will face five righties so I do think he’s third in this tier, but the gap isn’t exceptionally large. 

Mid-Tier

We have to talk about Luis Castillo but I have to say, he’s showing signs of turning back into what he was at the start of the season. In August, Castillo had a 4.58 ERA, .341 wOBA, and a 1.30 WHIP. I grant you that the xFIP was only 3.27 so it’s a mixed bag for Castillo, as it’s been through a significant chunk of 2021. The Tigers are also 11th against the changeup and that’s not ideal because the change has been the best pitch for Castillo with a .263 wOBA and a 32% whiff rate. At the salaries involved, I’m more than happy to plant my flag with Ray and Burnes for $1,200. and $800 more. 

I may be more inclined to also look at another Luis, as in Luis Patino for the Rays. Of course, nothing is ever cut and dry but I only consider Patino if he draws a righty-heavy lineup. He has a .351 wOBA against the left side of the plate to go along with a 7.16 xFIP, 6.11 FIP, and his walk rate is higher than his K rate. When he faces a righty, the xFIP comes down to 3.71, the K rate spikes to 29.3%, and the WHIP is only 0.95. It’s pretty easy to see that the slider is the main reason since he’s thrown it 239 times against righties out of 282 total sliders. It’s been excellent with a 35.3% whiff rate and a .250 wOBA. Minnesota is projected to have six righties and if that holds, I like Patino here. 

I kind of view Elieser Hernandez and Josiah Gray as the same style of pitcher. Both have strikeout upside in theory, but both have some flaws as well. For Hernandez, the K rate hasn’t exactly been there since returning from injury with only a 20.6% rate, 5.96 FIP, and a 4.62 xFIP. His four-seam is giving up a .445 wOBA and that is pretty concerning at this juncture. 

As far as gray is concerned, his K rate of 26.7% looks great but the FIP is over 6.00 to each side of the plate and the WHIP is over 1.30. Both sides also sport a fly-ball rate over 50% and his four-seam/curve makes up about 80% of his mix. Those pitches also both have a wOBA over .300 and they have given up 12 home runs already in just 40 IP. Even with ceiling potential, I can’t really get on board. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 Stacks 

Listen – it is not my fault that the Rays continue to get a putrid starting pitcher to pick on. They are an elite offense that we have continually learned nobody seems to want to play, and I bet today is not all that different. Griffin Jax has an xFIP around 5.50 against each side with a wOBA over .350 to each side as well. He’s using the fastball over 45% of the time against each side on top of that and it’s giving up a .307 ISO. Every single pitch has an average distance of at least 304 feet. Every. Single. Pitch. Every Rays player is in play today and my main targets are Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and punting with Kevin Kiermaier. You can legitimately mix and match everyone with who you want to fit. 

After that, I do want to snag a piece or two of the (presumably) chalky Yankees. They get lefty Keegan Akin and I want Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Kyle Higashioka. I can only afford two of them and will need a punt or two (likely looking towards Pittsburgh again against Zach Davies to make it work), but we get Sunday lineups and can get a punt we don’t expect. Those hitters are affordable and are over a .320 wOBA against lefties at least and they all hit the fastball well. Higgy did play yesterday so that could make the decision easy. 

• Brewers against Jon Lester 
• Reds lefties against Casey Mize 
• Jays against Cole Irvin
• Cubs against Wil Crowe 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4

It’s Saturday and we have a split slate with six games in the afternoon and nine in the evening! The later slate got the better end of the pitching to be sure, even though the spots are not perfect. We have a lot to get to in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 so let’s get rolling and start laying our foundations for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 – Afternoon

We’re going to discard the Tiers for the afternoon because this slate is tough sledding no matter what salary you’re paying. I feel like Marcus Stroman is going to be the chalk, even though the salary is pretty uncomfortable. It is honestly baffling why he doesn’t strike out more hitters. The swinging-strike rate has never been higher than the 11.7% he’s sporting this year and three of his four pitches have a whiff rate over 33%. Still, the K rate is under 22% which isn’t much for this salary range. The Nationals are also ninth in OBP since the trade deadline (as mentioned in Discord by user Derceto) with a K rate under 21%. The other large issue is Stroman has a lower K rate against the left side of the plate and Washington is scheduled to have at least five in the lineup. He’s appealing mostly just because of the slate. 

I’m also going against the grain for what I normally play and looking heavily at Chris Archer. He’s only pitched 10.1 innings but his K rate is 34.8% so far. I do NOT expect that to continue, but it was nice to see him get to 59 pitches and the velocity come back to him as he pitched last time out. The FIP/xFIP combo is 2.19/2.99 and his WHIP is only 0.87 despite a .423 BABIP. The swinging-strike rate of 14.9% looks excellent and if he gets to around 70 pitches, that’s only going to help. We do need a big grain of salt in such a small sample and that’s a small concern. His numbers against righties look rough with a .354 wOBA but that’s also the side of the plate that has a .474 BABIP, a ridiculous number. He’s using the four-seam/slider combo 90% of the time and the slider has earned a 46.9% whiff rate, even with it being the most thrown pitch. Minnesota is just 16th against that pitch. 

Two other pitchers may get some attention but are not likely to be my choice. Jose Berrios is $10,000 and he just doesn’t seem to pay off that price very often. Yes, last game he went off but that puts him one start closer to a bad one and the A’s aren’t the Tigers. Even though I’, noted to not get along with Berrios, he does have a pathway to a great start here. He’s much better against righties with a .234 wOBA, 2.92 FIP, 24% K rate, and a 0.85 WHIP. Oakland likely only has three lefties in the lineup and they are 27th against the curveball. That is the primary pitch for Berrios with 80 strikeouts, a .251 wOBA, and a 35.7% whiff rate. 

Jordan Montgomery suddenly can’t strike anyone out, with just five combined inches last two starts and not higher than six in nine of his last 10 starts. That doesn’t scream upside, especially against a Baltimore offense that only whiffs 22.4% of the time against lefties. They are also 11th in ISO, wRC+, and 13th in wOBA. While they aren’t a trustworthy offense, I would favor them over Montgomery in New York. He has a .306 wOBA and a 4.26 xFIP against righties and the Orioles can throw eight at him. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 Afternoon Stacks 

It’s going to sound like a broken record but we’re going with the Rays once again. The Twins are using a 35-year old lefty in Andrew Albers who has a 5.97 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, and a 10.5% K rate against righties through just 19 hitters faced and that’s not going to cut it against the Rays. Mike Zunino, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Yandy Diaz are all over a .310 wOBA and the first three are over a .220 ISO. Albers is throwing a fastball or sinker over 60% of the time against righties, and we all know what to do with that. Load them up!

You’re likely wondering how on Earth I’m going to afford the pitching we’ve talked about and the Rays. Don’t fret, there’s a super cheap offense we can get exposure to on this slate. I didn’t mention Nelson Cruz for the Rays because we can consider a three-man Pirates stack with Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran, and Hoy Park, among others. I want Bucco lefties because Kyle Hendricks has a .368 wOBA against lefties and that number has been higher in Wrigley, as is the 6.22 FIP and the 5.21 xFIP. Reynolds would be getting buzz for a dark horse MVP candidate if the Pirates were any good, and the other two are over a .285 wOBA. Moran has been hot since coming back from injury, hitting .324 over the past 10 games. 

• Blue Jays against Paul Blackburn 
• Red Sox against Eli Morgan 
• Cubs against Miguel Yajure 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 – Evening

Ace Tier 

Some pitchers are priced like aces but I can’t say there is an ace on this slate. You could try and take a shot with Tyler Mahle since he draws the Tigers, a strikeout-heavy lineup but there’s plenty of warning signs there as well. Detroit is 20th against the fastball and Mahle throws his four-seam over 52% of the time. It does allow a .327 wOBA but it also has 111 of his 174 strikeouts so it’s very clearly his best strikeout weapon. Mahle has been reverse-splits with a .360 wOBA against the right side of the plate and the Tigers project to be balanced with four of each handedness. His K rate against lefties of 31.7% keeps him in the running, but let’s see how the rest of the slate shakes out. The salary is truly frightening. 

Both Framber Valdez and Joe Musgrove are theoretically in play, but the lower strikeout ceiling has me concerned. San Diego has come up to 22.2% for the K rate against lefties but Valdez is only at a 22.4% rate himself. What is interesting for him is the Padres are sixth in ground ball rate while Valdez is flirting with a 70% rate. They are also far worse against lefty pitching than one would expect, sitting under 20th in slugging, OPS, ISO, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. Valdez is a fine option with some stealthy upside but the price is a little hard to swallow. 

Musgrove was dominant last time out against the Angels team and he gets another challenge with the Astros. They are the lowest K-rate team in baseball combined with sitting in the top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. It does help they lose the DH, that Musgrove is over a 28% K rate, and the Astros are projected to be righty-heavy. Musgrove excels against that side of the plate with a .228 wOBA, 29% K rate, 0.87 WHIP, and a 2.89 FIP. It should be noted that the xFIP is about the same regardless of handedness, so there is a risk in going against the Houston lineup to be sure. Then again, the Astros struggled to hit Jake Arrieta last night so maybe Musgrove can handle it just fine. 

Lastly, we have Julio Urias is a pitcher’s haven but in a not-so-easy spot as far as the opponent goes. San Francisco is about average through most of our categories so far against lefties but the K rate is very low at just 21.7%. What could really help Urias is the Giants are still projected to play three lefties and he’s whiffing them at a 31% rate. The righties are at 24.9% which is still plenty but some lefties help raise the ceiling a bit. San Fran is ninth against the curveball and that has been the main strikeout pitch for Urias with 66. He’s faced this team four times already this season and he’s logged 17, 21, 31, and 1 DK points against them. 

I feel like Reynaldo Lopez could bite me at any time but his three starts recently have been very strong overall. He’s only allowed a total of three runs and he’s been lights out against righty hitters, holding them to a .168 wOBA and a K rate over 40%. Lefties whiff just 17.9%, but their wOBA is only .248. His fastball is being thrown about 58% of the time and KC is ranked 25th against that pitch. Lopez’s version has a .168 wOBA, the most strikeouts of his mix, and a 26.1% whiff rate. His price is excellent compared to some of the other options on the slate, that’s for sure. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 Stacks 

I know the park isn’t great but my word are the Dodgers cheap for taking on a lefty with a 5.63 ERA and a 4.66 xFIP. Sammy Long is getting hammered by righty hitters with a 45.8% fly-ball rate, .368 wOBA, and a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.20. We can mix and match all of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock, and Chris Taylor. Long is throwing the fastball about 37% of the time against righties and all of those hitters are over a .390 wOBA and a .239 ISO against that pitch. On top of that, they all have at least a .353 wOBA and .204 ISO against lefties on the season. 

By appearances, Daniel Lynch of the Royals has been better, and in fairness, he’s not getting totally lit up. In August, his ERA was 2.39 but the wOBA was .318 and the xFIP was 4.75. I want a piece of the White Sox lineup against him even if it’s not a full-stack. Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu all have a wOBA over .390 this season against lefties and an ISO over .320. Those are big numbers and Vaughn is super cheap on top of it. Lynch throws his fastball almost 40% of the time and it’s giving up a .203 ISO with a 321-foot average distance. That trio makes an awful lot of sense. 

• Reds against Matt Boyd
• Brewers against Kwang Hyun Kim 
• Angels against Kolby Allard 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3

We’re back in action and we have 14 games to pick from! We have some choices up top, a very mediocre middle of the pack, and a super interesting punt. Let’s get right down to business in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 and forge our paths towards the green screens again! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I may not live in this range tonight, as I think every one of the options carries some risk. Freddy Peralta is coming off the IL and even though he wasn’t on it for an extended period, I’m not super trustworthy about his pitch count. He’s surpassed his career-high in innings as it is and the Brewers don’t have a lot of motivation to let him stray from a pitch count. If we get confirmation it’s all systems go, he would be my favorite. The price tag is super low for a pitcher who has a 34% K rate and the Cardinals lineup would play into his strength. I will be righty-heavy and Peralta owns the right side with a .234 wOBA, 40.1% K rate, and a 2.64 xFIP. Alex Manoah has some of the highest upsides on the slate but could easily score in the negatives as well. Oakland ranks second against the slider, which is a big red flag. If Manoah’s slider isn’t working, that’s an issue. His slider has the highest whiff rate and the most strikeouts so far for him, which makes this spot scary. 

Adam Wainwright and Nathan Eovaldi are fine options, but seem a hair pricey. Waino doesn’t get to pick on the Pirates in this start and the K rate for the season is under 23%. He also has a higher WHIP, xFIP, wOBA, and average against lefties. Milwaukee will have at least four in the lineup and it could be tough for Wainwright to have a true ceiling at this salary. For the Eovaldi part, his K rate is higher at 24.6% and he certainly gets a fairly soft matchup. Cleveland whiffs over 23% of the time against righties and are in the bottom half of the league in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP. They are also 17th against the curveball and that’s been his best pitch with the lowest wOBA and highest whiff rate. They also rank 18th against the fastball and that has the most strikeouts of any pitch. Eovaldi makes the most sense if you spend up, although it’s not my preferred path. 

Mid-Tier 

I have to assume we finally see Shohei Ohtani as chalk tonight. With the ace options uninspiring, Ohtani is going to take center stage and we’ve seen the field attack the Texas lineup relentlessly since the trade deadline. They are now typically righty-heavy with a projected six and that is what helps unlock the ceiling for Ohtani, in theory. He dominates the right side of the plate with a 35.4% K rate and a 2.03 FIP, to go along with a 0.83 FIP and a .218 wOBA. His splitter gets the deserved attention but his slider is no joke either with a 33.8% whiff rate and a .242 wOBA. Texas is just at a 21.9% K rate against righties since the deadline, but Ohtani can certainly get by that metric. 

He’s rarely in this article, but Kyle Gibson could pick up some steam as a popular option and I have to say, I get why. He gets a big-time upgrade as far as the park in Miami and he’s generated his best results against the right side of the plate. Gibson has gotten a 57.4% ground ball rate, a 20.7% K rate, a 1.06 WHIP, and a .250 wOBA. Not only is Miami second in ground ball rate against righties, but they are striking out over 25% of the time. Miami typically has six righties and the pitcher’s spot, so Gibson is well in play at this price. 

Honorable Mention 

Madison Bumgarner – He is a bit too pricey in my eyes, but I do think he could be quite a pivot away from Ohtani if you’re of that mindset. You could even pitch both players because Seattle loses the DH and they are projected to have four lefties in the lineup. MadBum has a 26.2% K rate against lefties and a 3.97 xFIP. Seattle is top-three in K rate against lefties so if there’s a spot for him to pay off this price…this rates as one of them. 

Punt Range 

After seeing Joe Ryan get rostered upwards of 50% recently even in GPP, I think the field is going to be interested in Glenn Otto at just $5,000. We have Coors and other big-name offensive stacks and Otto’s first start couldn’t have gone much better. He went five innings, struck out seven, and had a 0.36 FIP and 2.13 xFIP. The ground ball rate was 50% and the swinging-strike rate was a respectable 9.6%. Otto was sitting at a 24.5% K rate in the minors so he does have that ability and really the largest issue could be the Angels are third against the slider. He threw 30 each of the slider and four-seam but the slider had a 40% whiff rate. For the salary, all we need is 12-15 DK and LA is up to 11th in K rate against righty pitching. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 Stacks 

I mentioned Coors Field but we’re kicking things off out even further west because the Padres are letting Jake Arrieta pitch. Why they’re doing that, I haven’t the foggiest idea but the Astros are the late-night hammer to shoot us up the leaderboards. Arrieta is giving up a wOBA of at least .397 against each side of the plate so we can go after anyone we choose. They are very expensive but we can build a stack centered on the outfield because Arrieta is slightly worse against lefties. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley are all over a 3.65 wOBA or .150 ISO against righties. I’m willing to leave out Brantley because there’s another OF player I have my eyes on. I will also heavily consider Alex Bregman since he has a 15.2% K rate and his timing is getting back after his lengthy injury. 

If you’re inclined to roll with Ohtani/Otto at pitcher, you can still afford some of the Coors bats and I’m actually more excited for the Colorado side of things. Huascar Ynoa is reverse splits and is worse against righties with a 5.20 FIP and his K rate dips as well. The slider might be less effective in Coors and his fastball is still used 42% against righties, giving up a .222 ISO. Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers, C.J. Cron, and Sam Hilliard all have a wOBA over .350 against the fastball and Hilliard is at a .384 ISO. I bring him up because of his salary and he kills righty sliders with a .524 ISO and a 361-foot average distance. I’m willing to throw Brantley overboard to play Hilliard. That trio is also sitting at least at a .130 ISO and .294 wOBA against righties but Coors is the great equalizer. 

• Rays against Randy Dobnak
• Royals against Dallas Keuchel 
• Nationals against Rich Hill
• Yankees against John Means 
• Jays against Sean Manaea 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1

For a slate that has so many big names on it, I’m not thrilled with the options available to us. The calendar has flipped to September and that means teams can call up extra players. With expanded rosters, pitchers could have pretty short leashes at this point be it a workload concern or just not as effective as the team would like. It can be a frustrating time of the year but we press on in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 to lay our foundation for green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

So there are four big-name aces tonight but two of them can be discarded fairly quickly in my mind. Both Carlos Rodon and Chris Sale have pitch count concerns and that’s a no-fly zone for me at these price tags. Sale has not thrown more than 89 pitches in three starts (though the Sox really need a longer start badly) and Rodon was pulled at 67 pitches last time out. He’s already at a high inning count considering he pitched 42.1 innings in 2019 and 2020 combined. At five digits for each player, that’s an easy pass, especially when a certain righty is just $9,900. 

Alright, listen. I’m not perfect and I get plenty wrong. One thing I wouldn’t get wrong is pricing Gerrit Cole under $10,0000 when he’s had three straight starts scoring over 25 DK, and yet…here we are. Max Scherzer is on the slate and we’ll get there, but Cole is the smash play of the night. There are exactly zero reasons for him to be priced like this. The Angels are more strikeout-heavy than they have been in recent years at 24% and are projected for six righties. Cole’s K rate is higher against lefties at 39% but he’s holding righties to a 2.44 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, and a 30.4% K rate. He can whiff 10+ in any given start and should be one of the biggest favorites on the slate. 

It’s going to be interesting to the divide in popularity because realistically, Mad Max shouldn’t be $1,000 more than Cole. The latter should be priced up but if that drives everyone to just take Cole, do we get Scherzer at way less rostership than he should? It’s definitely possible even if it shouldn’t be. Scherzer has hit at least 23.9 DK in four of five starts with the Dodgers and has a 15.6% swinging-strike rate which is second among all starters. The Braves tend to be righty-heavy and that should unlock the strikeout ceiling for Scherzer as he boasts a 37.6% K rate against the right side. His slider has a 45.6% whiff rate, a .174 wOBA, and 45 strikeouts. If there’s a path for double ace, I’d love to take it. 

Aaron Nola is a fine play but in honesty, I only have eyes for Cole and/or Scherzer tonight. I’m more than willing to take that stand. 

Mid-Range 

It may be time to try our luck with Carlos Carrasco again tonight. After a tough first inning the last start, he settled in nicely and made it past five innings for the first time. He’s definitely had some poor luck so far as only one start has shown an xFIP over 4.32 and his xFIP in total is 3.60. That does not match the ERA of 6.94 in the least. Carrasco has a strand rate of just 55.6%, a hard-hit rate of 35.6%, and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate. The wOBA against righties looks poor, but Carrasco is suffering through a .364 BABIP against that side and the K rate is 24.5%. With Miami sitting in the top 10 in K rate against righties, there is some quiet upside. 

Well, there went that as the Mets game was PPD already. 

The loss of that Mets game really hurts the pitching tonight and we might be looking at a player like Drew Rasmussen. Boston is going to be without Xander Bogaerts tonight for sure and Rasmussen has some relatively strong metrics to back up this play. He’s slowly ramping up his pitch count and we could see over 60 tonight, along with his K rate of 26.5% on the year. That has come down a little bit as he’s been a starter but his xFIP has not been over 3.36 in any of the three. Both sides of the plate are under a .280 wOBA and he’s mostly fastball/slider. The whiff rate is over 26.5% on each pitch and carries basically all of his strikeouts. The matchup with Boston isn’t ideal, but he can make it work at this price. 

We’re in a real pickle here. There are no realistic options past Rasmussen and the rest of the mid-range has serious concerns. 

James Kaprielian – The K rate of 24.5% is certainly appealing against the Tigers, but there’s plenty of risks. He’s been worse outside of Oakland with a 1.77 HR/9, a 5.07 FIP, and a 4.72 xFIP. 

Max Fried – It’s the Dodgers again, although Morton came away fine. I just can’t justify that salary for the matchup. 

Steven Matz – I’d have a tough time here as well since Baltimore is better against lefties, but I can’t say Matz has awful metrics. His K rate is under 22% but he does have a 45.5% ground ball rate and just a 25.9% hard-hit rate. He may well end up being more in play than I would like.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 Stacks 

I’m looking to go double ace because this pitching slate is not good at all. If the Yankee lineup cooperates tonight, we can actually go with a hefty amount of the New York lineup with a Yankee sack. They face Packy Naughton, a lefty for the Angels who has not shown any strikeout ability. The Yankees hammer lefties and Aaron Judge, Kyle Higashioka, and Luke Voit should be the centerpieces. Since it’s a lefty and a day game after a night game, both Voit and Higgy should be in the lineup and those three are over a .365 wOBA and at least a .150 ISO. Naughton has only thrown five innings, so his pitch mix isn’t really reliable yet. I want Yankee righties in this spot. 

This might be a bit of a mishmash as far as the rest of the offensive players. We might be looking at 2/2 if we can get in four Yanks but two that really stand out are Nicky Lopez and Michael A. Taylor for the Royals. They are super cheap, Lopez continues to hit at a very high clip, and both hit lefties well. They both sit over a .305 wOBA and Logan Allen for Cleveland has struggled horribly outside of the last start. He’s throwing his fastball 42% of the time and both hitters are over a .325 wOBA against that pitch. Since both have stolen base upside, I’m willing to overlook some lack of power. 

• A’s against Wily Peralta
• Cleveland against Mike Minor 
• White Sox against Mitch Keller 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31

We have almost every team available to us tonight with 28 pitchers we can choose from! While that part is fun, there is simply not a lot of actual good options to choose from after the higher end tonight. Let’s dive in and see if we can find any sort of gems in the lower tier in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

We’re at the point where I practically do not care what the matchup is Walker Buehler, he’s going to be in play. He’s up to eight out of 10 starts scoring at least 26 DK points and some of those have come against the Astros, Padres, Giants, and at Coors Field. His four-seam leads the pack with 76 strikeouts but the slider/curve combo has combined for 71 as well. The secondary pitches both have a whiff rate over 32% and Buehler is down to a 2.02 ERA. Atlanta is a dangerous offense but they also strikeout over 24% of the time on the season and it’s still at 23.7% since the start of July. Atlanta’s offense also sets up well for his splits since they should only have three lefties. Buehler has been better against the right side of the plate with a .225 wOBA and a K rate over 28%. 

If we’re paying up for another pitcher, Brandon Woodruff is going to be tempting. His K rate goes up to 31.1% against the left side of the plate to go along with a 2.97 xFIP, a .218 wOBA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 25.3% hard-hit rate. San Francisco is slated to play six lefties and the pitcher’s spot, pitch-perfect for Woodruff. One of the reasons for those splits could be the curve/changeup mix he utilizes more against lefties. The curve allows the lowest wOBA at .145 and the change has the highest whiff rate at 39.4%. Those pitches make up about 35% of his mix against lefties and with the park upgrade, Woodruff makes a lot of sense, especially at $9,400. 

Honorable Mention 

Lance McCullers – To my eyes, he’s just never consistent enough to be worth paying more than some of our other options. Sure, in GPP you can talk me into it because he has a similar upside as others in this tier. He has a 27.8% K rate and we know the Mariners have been a source of whiffs all year long. McCullers also has a .328 wOBA against lefties with a FIP/xFIP combo both over 4.00. The metrics just point us elsewhere. 

The Mid-Range 

Lucas Giolito has spent most of the season priced in the Ace Tier and has caused plenty of heartburn. I suspect him to be the chalk of the slate and the Pirates offense has been next-level poor, so count me in. They are striking out over 25% of the time lately and rank dead last against the fastball, which has been the trouble pitch for Giolito. That’s allowed a .326 wOBA while the changeup has 86 strikeouts. This is just a perfect spot for him (which sort of scares me in honesty) but I’m happy to eat the chalk. He scored 19.9 DK in the earlier matchup with the Pirates and the offense has gotten worse since then. Giolito has recorded a wOBA under .295 since the start of July and the K rate has been over 25%. That’s more than enough under $9,000. 

Now things start to get rough because the options fall off a cliff. Let’s just run through a quick list of options and why I’m not looking that way, shall we? 

Charlie Morton – Not against the Dodgers. 

Hyun Jin Ryu – Baltimore is far more dangerous against lefties and Ryu’s K rate is down by a good bit. 

Zach Plesac – He’s scored over 15.9 DK once in the past 10 and has a 16.2% K rate. The lone good start came against the Tigers, so grain of salt. 

Yusei Kikuchi – Houston has scuffled against lefties but they have hit Kikuchi well every time this year. 

Blake Snell – On the road and he threw 122 pitches last time out. 

So….not exactly loaded here with options. I suppose Austin Gomber is in play though I think he’s pricey for his skill set. The K rate is 23.9% but he’s also gotten obliterated outside of Coors Field across 63.2 IP with an ERA over 6.00. You can argue that the xFIP is only .386 and the .309 BABIP is way out of line, and that would be fair. Texas has been so putrid but they aren’t striking out. They have the eighth-lowest K rate since the deadline despite being in the bottom 10 of every other category. I think I’m likely to go with Giolito and an ace or possibly take the gamble on this next pitcher. 

Punt Range 

This is a wild play because since the deadline and the acquisition of Starling Marte, Oakland is only striking out 15% of the time against lefty pitching. That’s the best in the majors but they are still 18th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 16th in wOBA, and 13th in wRC+. Tarik Skubal has a 30% K rate in August to go with a 2.95 xFIP and a .263 wOBA. He’ll use his slider and change since Oakland will be loaded with righty hitters and those pitches have 64 combined strikeouts. They also allow wOBA’s under .245 and boast whiff rates over 31%, especially the change at 47.1%. The salary doesn’t match the upside and Oakland isn’t exactly terrifying against lefty pitching. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31 Stacks 

Note – The Giants picked up Jose Quintana, and if he’s the confirmed starter I will be interested in Milwaukee, although the park is not that great for offense. 

I’m fine taking a stab at Skubal tonight because I need some Blue Jays against lefty Keegan Akin. He has a FIP/xFIP combo of 5.32/552 and a wOBA over .380 against righty hitters and he’s going to see an awful lot of them. His fastball is being thrown almost 57% of the time against righties and the top five in the order (George Springer, Marcus Semien, Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez) all have ISO’s over .230 except for Bichette and wOBA’s over .350. All of them are also over a .340 wOBA on the season and even Alejandro Kirk is sitting over a .400 wOBA in 40 PA. Hernandez leads the squad with an ISO of .366 and my main three are he, Vlad, and Springer. If we have room for Semien or Bichette, all the better. 

We’re heading to Minnesota next since they’re taking on Zach Davies and he’s struggled through the season. The xFIP against the left side is 5.81 and the HR/9 against the right side is 1.69 while the Twins are super cheap. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Donaldson all sit over a .350 wOBA against righties and at least a .219 ISO. They all hit the fastball well and the only player that is in the negatives against the change is Buxton. Davies throws a sinker/change mix 85% of the time and the Twins fill in around the Jays nicely. 

• Yankees against Jamie Barria
• Tigers against Cole Irvin 
• Rays against Garrett Richards 
• Phillies against Patrick Corbin 
• Cleveland against Mike Minor 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.31 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29

There are 11 games on today’s slate, but that doesn’t mean very good things for pitching. The options are few and far between, and even the ones that are appealing are pricey. Let’s get rolling to find the paths we need to walk for green screens in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

I would have to say that the term “ace” is in the context of the slate only because nobody that is priced this high is a true ace. Dylan Cease makes the strongest case and I know that pitching against the Cubs the past couple of nights has decidedly not worked out. Just remember, every day is a new day. Miles Mikolas and J.A. Happ were trash against the Bucs but if we held that against Adam Wainwright, we don’t get almost 30 DK from Waino. Cease has some nasty secondary stuff with a slider/change/curve combo that all have a whiff rate over 40.5% and a wOBA under .265. His slider and curve make up about 45% of his mix and 108 total strikeouts. The fear is his four-seam isn’t that great with 11 home runs allowed and a .385 wOBA. The Cubbies are just average against the fastball, which helps. It also helps that Cease has a K rate over 30% and a FIP/xFIP combo under 4.00. Both sides of the plater are no higher than a .300 wOBA and while there is a risk, Cease has demonstrated ceiling as well with 28 and 37 DK points in two of his past 10. 

It’s not going to be risk-free with Tyler Mahle either but he has had much better results on the road and the parks don’t get much different than Cincy and Miami. His xFIP is close regardless of where he pitches but the HR/9 is massively different at 2.43 at home and just 0.34 on the road. On the surface, this looks like a poor spot for Mahle with a .366 wOBA against righty hitters but again, the home/road splits surface. The wOBA is .480 at home but just .265 on the road. The K rate is still over 25% and his fastball has 105 of his 168 strikeouts. The Marlins are 29th against the fastball this year which is a huge bonus and even though the price seems high, you can’t ignore him on this slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Jose Berrios – He’s in poor form right now but the Tigers can fix that for pitchers. It’s difficult to get past the fact that Berrios sports a .358 wOBA against the left side of the plate, even though Detroit is not a great offense overall. Berrios does have a K rate of almost 26% against that side as well, so if things go right, they could go very right. 

The Mid-Range 

He can be a frustrating experience, and I wish Boston had a longer rope with him but Tanner Houck is a pitcher I can’t quit. Through his 39.1 IP, the K rate is 31.3% and the 3.43 ERA is solid. His FIP of 1.95 and xFIP of 2.73 are even better and the BABIP of .382 certainly lead us to say he’s been unlucky in his small sample. Based on what he has shown, we want a righty-heavy lineup since Houck has whiffed that side of the plate at a massive 37.2% clip. The xFIP against each side is under 2.85 and he’s generating a ground ball rate over 42% as well. Cleveland has climbed up over 23% for their K rate and Houck is a strong pick. I do fear about the upside since he’s typically pitched under five innings per start. 

Ian Anderson is back from the IL and he’s pitched plenty on the farm so there shouldn’t be limitations in play here. This spot could turn into a really good one for Anderson. He’s been better against lefties this year at a .269 wOBA, 1.16 WHIP, and a hard-hit rate of 29.2%. The main off-speed pitch is the changeup and it’s gotten a whiff rate over 34% with a wOBA of .258. It just so happens that San Francisco is projected to have six lefties in the lineup, are 23rd against the changeup, and a strikeout over 25% against righty pitching. 

Honorable Mention 

Erick Fedde – By the metrics, this isn’t the play since Fedde has been way worse against lefties. The Mets should have at least five in the lineup but that offense has been awful since the deadline. They are 23rd or worse in every category and we’re going on a month of ineptitude. 

Punt Tier 

If you think Houck is too expensive, I’ll offer up Aaron Ashby for far cheaper. Now, he’s likely not going past four innings and the track record is way spottier but his ERA of 4.15 isn’t matched by his 2.48 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. The BABIP is .379 and he’s yet to give up a home run in his 8.2 IP. The K rate is 21.7% and Minnesota is over a 23% K rate on the season against lefties. The slider from Ashby has been outstanding with a 47.6% whiff rate and a .131 wOBA across 54 thrown. I wish he was a hair cheaper and the K rate was higher than 15.6% against righties, but there’s at least a way for him to get to 15 DK. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 Stacks

I wish it was in a different park, but the Reds face Jesus Luzardo today and I’m in. He’s getting mauled by both sides of the plate with wOBA’s over .400 and the xFIP is 5.49 and the FIP is 6.96 against righties. Luzardo’s fastball gives up a .342 ISO and a 56.9% hard-hit rate. He’s throwing it almost half the time with the Marlins and Jonathan India and Nick Castellanos feel like must-plays. India is at a .508 wOBA and .290 ISO against the pitch while Castellanos is at a .454 and .408 mark himself. They also lead the squad on the season in wOBA and they’re followed by Tyler Stephenson, Kyle Farmer, and Aristides Aquino. Now, Aquino is in a big slump and is at high risk of being pinch hit for but he’s cheap enough to take those risks. 

My next stack correlates nicely in the Washington Nationals, and we haven’t gone there too often lately. Still, Tylor Megill is getting smoked by lefty hitters with a .418 wOBA, 6.65 FIP, and a 5.40 xFIP. The fly-ball rate is terrifying at 54% and his fastball is a big culprit with a .258 ISO allowed and a 316-foot average distance. Juan Soto and Josh Bell hammer that pitch with wOBA’s over .415 and ISO’s over .330. Soto is his normal self with a .426 wOBA and a .201 ISO on the season against righty pitching while Bell and Yadiel Hernandez are both over a .300 wOBA themselves. The other bonus is none of these hitters have a higher K rate than 20%. 

• Rays against Spenser Watkins 
• Astros against Taylor Hearn 
• Diamondbacks against Ranger Suarez 
• Cardinals against Wil Crowe 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28

We have got all sorts of action today in the majors with a six-game afternoon slate and a nine-game evening slate! We’ll be covering both and the evening really has some strong pitching options on it. Let’s get to work with two slates to cover in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 and lay our foundation for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 – Afternoon 

The Frankie Montas Tier 

Montas is the only pitcher that qualifies by salary and if I’m attacking the Yankee lineup, I do much prefer to do it with righty pitching. Montas has a 26.8% K rate and that’s been thanks to his splitter for the most part. It has 69 strikeouts, a .164 wOBA, and a 53% whiff rate. He does only throw it 22% of the time but the catch is it uses it mostly against lefties. It’s no surprise that righties have the higher wOBA against him at .308 and a lower K rate of just 23.2%. I want to see the Yankee lineup. If there are four lefties as it’s projected, I’m in on pitching Montas. If they go more righty-heavy, I may back off. 

Mid-Range Tier 

I’m willing to bet a lot of popularity is focused on Alek Manoah and the duo of Vladimir Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara. We’ll kick it off with what could turn into a pitcher’s duel like it did last time when both scored over 30 DK. For some bizarre reason, Alcantara went from $9,100 all the way down to $7,700. The matchup is still relatively tough but he’s back in Miami which is a nice bonus. The changeup and slider both are over a 35% whiff rate and have combined for 96 strikeouts on the season while Cincy is 20th against the slider and eighth against the change. Alcantara is just too cheap in this spot and has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA and at home, his xFIP is just 3.32. 

Gutierrez sort of continues to defy some metrics. The xFIP of 5.08 across 93 IP is not exactly what we look for but the Marlins don’t check the boxes for teams that can make him pay. They whiff over 25% and are 27th in ISO at home against righties. Miami is also no higher than 19th in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in that split and Miami just isn’t the best hitter’s park you can find. Gutierrez has a 10.4% swinging-strike rate which is plenty respectable and the K rate of almost 19% is fine, if not spectacular for his salary. It’s more about the matchup and outside of Cincinnati, Gutierrez has a 2.92 ERA, .286 wOBA, and a scary 5.57 xFIP. He’s one of the pitchers that I’m still not totally there on the trust factor, but plenty of facets are in his favor today. 

Manoah is another pitcher that is really a mixed bag and you have to understand the risk when you play him. You can just stroll through the game logs to have that illustrated for you because they are at every outcome imaginable. The splits aren’t exactly helpful because the wOBA is higher against lefties at .339 but the xFIP is way lower at 3.60 and the K rate is 30.8%. Detroit is scheduled to have five lefties in the lineup and it’s interesting to note that the BABIP against lefties is .333, which is high. His pitch mix features three pitches with whiff rates above 26.5% and the wOBA’s are under .295. Detroit is 28th against the slider and 16th against the fastball, which is the bread and butter for Manoah. I rank these three Alcantara, Gutierrez, and Manoah but they all have some serious range of outcomes today. 

Punt Tier 

It’s definitely a risk but this spot is about as comfortable as we can ask for when looking at Carlos Hernandez. The young righty has been better against the left side of the plate with a .275 wOBA and a 26.1% K rate. His four-seam and curve are his main pitches to that side of the plate and they have 37 of 60 strikeouts. Seattle is 26th against the fastball and 12th against the curve, but the curve rating is just 1.5 as a team. The Mariners are projected to have six lefties in the lineup today and carry the third-highest K rate against righty pitching at 25.7%. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 Stacks – Early 

Some may look at the Blue Jays lately and roll right on past, especially since bulk reliever Tyler Alexander just shut them down. In that start, his xFIP was over 4.50, the hard-hit rate was over 35%, and the fly-ball rate was over 41%. The cutter is his most-thrown pitch and Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette especially smash that pitch with ISO’s over .305. That trio is led in the seasonal ranks by Hernandez with a .381 ISO and a .476 wOBA while Bichette and Semien are over a .350 wOBA. You can always kick in Vlad Guerrero, even though he’s had a pretty tough month (for once). 

One of the reasons I think I might fade Vlad is we can go the ultimate GPP play in an A’s stack with Matt Olson. He leads the team in ISO at .343 and wOBA at .408 this year and lefty Nestor Cortes is using his fastball 50% against lefties and 40% against righties. Olson mashes the lefty fastball for a .393 ISO and Cortes allows a 40% hard-hit rate with a 312-foot average distance. We can then turn to Starling Marte and Mark Canha, both of whom sit over a .335 wOBA and .175 ISO on the year. 

• Phillies against Humberto Mejia
• Cleveland/Red Sox game stack 
• Royals against Tyler Anderson 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 – Evening 

Ace Tier 

To the surprise of nobody, my first choice here is Lance Lynn going against the Cubs and their massive strikeout rate. Since the deadline, the K rate as a team is 29% and that is the highest in the league against righty pitching. Lynn himself sits at a 27.2% rate and an 11.7% swinging-strike rate on the season. While the Cubs pick up a DH in the AL park, I’m not exceptionally worried since they struggle to field eight hitters. After all, they rank in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ since the deadline as well. Lynn should get five righties in the lineup which is in his wheelhouse since he whiffs the right side of the plate 30.8% of the time and has a .220 wOBA. 

We’re also continuing to attack my Buccos because Adam Wainwright has owned Pittsburgh this year. He’s pitched against them three times and totaled 23 IP, 24 Ks, eight hits, one walk, and one earned run on a solo bomb. That is utter domination and Pittsburgh ranking 29th against the curve and 30th against the fastball certainly helps Waino. The Bucs have had a K rate over 25% since the deadline and I fully believe Waino should be worth every cent of his salary. I mean, he’s scored 27, 42, and 38 DK points in those three starts and the offense hasn’t gotten any better. 

Framber Valdez is a tier down from the first two pitchers on this slate in part because he’s sporting a K rate of 22.1% and the Texas lineup doesn’t strike out much. Since the deadline, they are only at an 18.8% rate despite being in the bottom six in all of our other categories. Valdez can counteract the sixth-highest fly-ball rate from Texas since he has a 69.3% ground ball rate. His curve and changeup are over 30% in whiff rate each but all of his pitches except the curve are over a .300 wOBA. Valdez should face eight righties and that is the tougher side of the plate. The K rate drops to 20.5% and the wOBA is .290. You’d be playing him for seven strong innings as opposed to any tangible strikeout upside, leaving him out of play in my eyes as the most expensive pitcher on the board. 

Honorable Mention 

Logan Webb is in this pricing tier as well and he has been outstanding with a 26.4% K rate and a 2.84 xFIP. When he’s not striking hitters out, he’s generating a ground ball rate of 61.8%. Realistically, the only reason I won’t play him is that Lynn and Waino are both under $10,000 and I can roll both of those pitchers out in great matchups. 

Mid-Tier 

Much like Gerrit Cole, it sure looked like Marcus Stroman needed to learn how to pitch again in the middle of the year without sticky stuff. The last three starts would suggest he’s figured it out with scores of at least 21.9 DK. When things are working for him, every pitch past his sinker has a whiff rate over 31% and the highest wOBA against them is .268. The swinging-strike rate has been a least 9.6% for the past five starts which is great to see. Stro has managed to keep both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA and he is certainly part of a pretty exciting pitching slate against a weaker Nationals lineup. 

One of my favorite GPP plays on the slate is none other than Luis Patino. We’ve utilized him very rarely this year and with good reason as he’s been very unstable. However, he does have his strengths and they are against righty hitting. He’s held them to a 3.72 xFIP, a 30.4% K rate, and a .267 wOBA. Baltimore should feature seven righties in their lineup and they’re hovering around a 24% K rate on the year. They are also no higher than 20th in our offensive categories and even though the park is a significant downgrade, Patino’s slider is a weapon. Baltimore is sitting at a -8.5 FanGraphs rating and his slider has a 36.8% whiff rate and a .246 wOBA. This is one of the better spots Patino could get, past where he’s pitching. With the pricing on tonight’s slate, I don’t see dropping below Patino in salary. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 Stacks – Evening 

The Twins are going to put Charlie Barnes back on the mound and that’s not likely to end well. His xFIP/FIP combo is 6.43/6.00 and his K rate is just 10.4%. Barnes also sports a 43.8% fly-ball rate with a 39.8% hard-hit rate so the Brewers hitters are very interesting to me. My main trio is going to be Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, and Luis Urias. All three of these hitters are over a .195 ISO and .335 wOBA on the year against lefties and they all hit the sinker well with a wOBA over .350. They are all very affordable on top of that and you can even top it off with Kolten Wong. He’s done well in lefty against lefty matchups with a .382 wOBA and if Barnes gets rocked, the handedness doesn’t matter as much. 

Don’t worry, I didn’t forget the Rays are in Baltimore. John Means has continued to be extremely pedestrian since coming back from injury and while I don’t want to full-stack, we can use them as secondary pieces. Mike Zunino has completely wrecked lefty pitching all year with a .509 wOBA and a .506 ISO, which is absurd. This is across 100 PAs as well so it’s not the smallest sample ever. All of him, Manuel Margot, and Randy Arozarena have a wOBA over .350 against lefty fastballs and Means is throwing that 49% of the time with a .285 ISO and 44.8% hard-hit rate. 

• Padres against Jose Suarez
• Angels against Ryan Weathers (the bulk pitcher)
• Dodgers against Jon Gray 
• White Sox against Alec Mills 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27

We have every single team in action on this slate but the pitching selection overall is not exactly the best. There are options at every level tonight which isn’t always the case so let’s dig into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 to carve our paths to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I will almost surely say that Gerrit Cole will be the highest-rostered pitcher on the slate and it’s tough to mount a strong argument against it. He may have only whiffed six in the last start but it seemed like he had almost every hitter on two strikes and just couldn’t get those putaway pitches. The fly-ball rate is 41% and pitching in Oakland is a big improvement over pitching in New York for that facet. Every pitch has a whiff rate over 28% and his four-seam/slider combo has 140 total strikeouts. Oakland is 18th against the fastball but they are second against the slider, which is worth noting. The K rate as a unit is only 23% but Cole boasts a 14.5% swinging-strike rate and an xFIP under 2.95 against each side of the plate. He shouldn’t be the second-highest in salary on this slate. 

You guys know that I love me some Shane McClanahan, but it is hard to get around to him at this highest salary on the board. Is he wildly talented with evil, overpowering stuff? He sure is. He’s also hit seven innings just once and he has yet to record more than eight strikeouts in any start in the majors. It doesn’t mean he’s incapable but you would like to feel better about paying all the way up that he could record over 30 DK points and that hasn’t happened. The lefty for the Rays has been excellent with a 3.20 xFIP and a 28.5% K rate with only a 7.8% walk rate. His 15.2% swinging-strike rate is 15.2% and would rank in the top-five in the league if he qualified, giving you an idea of how good the stuff is. They don’t worry me in a major way, but Baltimore is 11th in wRC+, 10th in ISO, and 12th in OPS against lefties. There’s just not enough upside even though I do think he pitches well. 

I’ll round things out by talking about Aaron Nola even though I’ve not gotten him right once all season. His K rate is well worth chasing at 29.3% and the 3.46 xFIP continues to tell us he’s had bad luck on the 4.33 ERA. The swinging-strike rate is 12.8% and the curve/changeup mix both have over a 35% whiff rate. Arizona is eighth against the change but 17th against the curve and Nola uses that pitch more often. Nola is slightly worse against lefties with a .305 wOBA but the K rate is also higher at 30.1% and the xFIP is almost identical against each side. 

Mid-Range 

Max Fried has been on a tear in the past seven starts, recording over 20 DK points in six of those starts. His curve/slider mix makes up about 46% of his pitches and both have a whiff rate over 33% and have 82 strikeouts. The Giants are seventh against the curve but are 23rd against the slider but the main concern is the Giants can be a tough offense against lefty pitching. They are top 12 in all of our offensive categories but looking at some of the offenses Fried has walked through, maybe he can do it again. The K rate is 23.7% and the ground ball rate is 49.2% this year, both of which are more than enough for his salary. 

This is going to feel gross and I wish he was a little cheaper, but I’m going to continue to attack the Pirates almost every night and tonight it’s J.A. Happ. It will be his third time facing the Bucs in the past four starts but the first two have generated over 21 DK points in each, 12 IP, 13 K’s, and just three earned runs. What’s interesting is since he got to St. Louis, he’s using what FanGraphs is saying is a splitter a lot more. Now, Baseball Savant doesn’t have a splitter listed has garnered a 1.3 rating in the last three starts and that’s noticeable because it’s at a -2.5 on the season. Given the ineptitude coming from Pittsburgh (Miles Mikolas notwithstanding), I think Happ can still be played tonight. 

Punt Tier 

Mitch White is on the edge of Mid-Range and Punt and even though I don’t think he has a realistic shot at 30 DK points again, he does get the Rockies away from Coors. As a refresher, Colorado is 30th in average, 29th in OBP, and 30th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and WRC+ away from Coors and facing a righty along with a 26.5% K rate. White has a very passable 23.5% K rate and a FIP of 3.93. He’s doing a good job generating ground balls at a 47.5% rate and Colorado is second in ground ball rate outside of Coors as well. Both sides of the plate are over a 22.5% K rate and White is not expensive enough given the matchup and the recent performance. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 Stacks 

Brian is gone (and potentially already enjoying adult beverages) and I’m sure Jared is going here as well but I simply don’t care because the Rays are in Camden Yards against Matt Harvey. We get all nine innings guaranteed and the Rays just messed up Harvey and the Baltimore pitching staff in Tampa two series ago. Harvey has at least a .328 wOBA against each side of the plate and the xFIP against lefties is 5.25. His fastball gets crushed for a .224 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate and he throws it around 35% of the time total. My core group is going to be Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, and the salary-saving Kevin Kiermaier. Lowe is the best fastball hitter on the team, followed closely by Arozarena, and both sit over a .320 wOBA while Lowe has a .306 ISO, best on the team against righty pitching. Meadows himself is at .300 and fourth on the squad against the fastball while Kiermaier is on a tear lately with almost nine DK points per game and hitting over .320. 

Going this route along with a Cole/Happ duo at pitcher (as an example) means we need a cheaper stack that is more infield-heavy. Lo and behold, the righties for the Nationals fit the build absolutely perfectly. They are super cheap and the trio of Ryan Zimmerman, Carter Kieboom, and Tres Barrea fit perfectly. Zimmerman has smashed lefties for most of his career and sits at almost a .290 ISO while Kieboom is over a .320 wOBA and Barrea (in 29 PA, to be fair) has a .455 ISO and .596 wOBA. Hill is allowing a .333 wOBA and 4.97 FIP against righties, giving us much-needed flexibility tonight. 

• Red Sox (probably chalk again) against Logan Allen 
• Padres against Packy Naughton 
• Blue Jays against Matt Manning 
• Yankees against Sean Manaea 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!