MLB DFS GPP

Starting Rotation 4.18

We get a nine-game slate today for Sunday baseball action and we have two of the best fantasy pitcher on the mound today! Days like this tend to make this article fairly simple and today won’t be much different. The targets are clear and there are even a couple of secondary pitchers that are going to fit nicely into the Starting Rotation 4.18! 

Starting Rotation 4.18 – Cash 

Shane Bieber ($10,000 DK/$11,500 FD) 

There are not many pitchers that I will have zero fear over and Bieber is absolutely one of them. He’s coming off nine innings against the White Sox in which he whiffed 11 hitters and racked up 43.3 DK points. If Cleveland had given him run support in time he would have flirted with 50 for a complete game shutout. For some incredible reason, DK decided to drop this man’s salary by $700. The Reds aren’t striking out a ton as a team at just 21.6% but Bieber is sixth in baseball at a 41.7% K rate. 

It was also encouraging to see Bieber only walk one batter last game after there and four in his first two starts. Only Jacob deGrom has a higher swinging strike rate than Bieber’s 20.3% rate and there’s just so little to pick on here. If there’s anything, I guess it would be Bieber has given up a higher wOBA to RHH but it’s only .270. The xFIP to that side of the plate is still 2.61 and Bieber seeing a price reduction is nonsensical. He’s my top option on the slate and I would think the field agrees. 

Gerrit Cole ($10,400 DK/$11,000 FD)

Another spot where the pitch data may not look fantastic outside of the slide but that’s not a deciding factor. Cole is right with Bieber at a 41.4% K rate and his HR/9 is down at 0.49 after ballooning to 1.73 last season, a career-high. Even the walk rate has come down a bit to 4.3% and so far, Cole hasn’t been bothered by the 52.6% fly-ball rate he’s displaying. It helps that the barrel rate is tiny at 2.6% and hitters aren’t making a ton of contact with a 16.8% swinging strike rate for Cole. Perhaps the best metric for Cole is the difference in lefty bats this year. In 2020, lefties started to do some damage with a .319 wOBA and a 2.70 HR/9. So far through 25 batters faced this year, the wOBA is .070 and he’s yet to give up a bomb to that side of the plate.

What has been super interesting so far is the drop in four-seam usage for Cole. Last season it was at 52.8% and this year it’s at 43.2%. The changeup has been the pitch that he’s using a lot more than last year at 13.7%. Cole has yet to give up a hit with the change and has a .093 xWOBA on it. The 36.4% whiff rate is nothing to sneer at either. He may not throw it often but it’s the fourth-ranked changeup in the league so far this year among starters. About the only reason Bieber is my first option is he is cheaper on DK. I will have a lineup or two with both pitchers and it could yet be the cash route. 

Pablo Lopez ($6,200 DK)

If we can’t fit both aces comfortably, I believe Lopez slides directly into the SP2 position for DK. He’s bringing some serious salary relief to the table and I’m not worried about his last start. He was on the road against the Braves and Lopez has a career ERA over 6.00 on the road. Now he gets back to Miami and inherits quite the spot. First off, the Giants are second in K rate against righty pitching at 29.6% and only carry a .203 average, which is 25th. Lopez should have to face at least five lefty hitters today and he’s carrying a 25.9% K rate to that side of the plate. He’s struck out six of the 18 lefties he’s faced at home so far as well. 

Every strikeout but one for Lopez has come from either the four-seam or the change so far and he’s not using the sinker as much either. That’s great news as it only recorded one strikeout last season through 94 pitches. Lopez has a 43.8% fly-ball rate to lefties but the home park helps take care of that. The Giants do have the best fly ball rate in the majors so far to righties but I’m not sweating one factor when Lopez has K upside under $6,500. 

Starting Rotation 4.18 – GPP

Freddy Peralta ($9,500 DK/$8,500 FD)

Three of the top seven pitchers in K rate in 2021 are on this slate and the player that leads the pack is no Cole nor Bieber. It’s Freddy Peralta, who has been unreal to start the season. He and Corbin Burnes are the only players that have a K rate over 43% and Peralta sits at 47.1%. Now, he’s only GPP for a couple of reasons. First off, the duo of Cole and Bieber will carry the ownership just from name value alone. Secondly, Peralta is second among starters in walk rate at a ghastly 17.7%. Strikeout pitchers inherently can be a little wild but if you’re putting this many runners on base, one swing of the bat can ruin the day. The 100% strand rate won’t stand either. 

What I like about Peralta is the fact he’s leaning more into his slider and backing off the four-seam a bit. Regardless of how electric a fastball is, major league hitters are going to tee it up if you’re throwing it 73.5% of the time like Peralta did last season. His slider has accumulated 14 of his 24 strikeouts, has a .121 xwOBA, and a 60% whiff rate. It shows up in the FanGraphs rating too as Peralta’s is third among starters.

With the Pirates striking out 24% of the time so far, this is a spot that Peralta could potentially match Cole and Bieber for fantasy points. I don’t think it’s likely but if Peralta can score 5-10 more DK at a fraction of the ownership, that’s how you jump thousands in the standings in GPP. 

Honorable Mention – John Means, Aaron Nola but I am very focused on these four pitchers. When we have three massive strikeout options and a great salary-saving option in Lopez, I’m having a very hard time deviating from these four pitchers. 

Gas Can of the Slate – Well, it’s Madison Bumgarner day and he gets another terrible spot. The Nationals have smashed lefty pitching for multiple seasons and lead the league in average so far. They back that up with top-eight marks in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ as well. MadBum is not fooling anyone with a 1.98 HR/9, 11% walk rate, 2.20 WHIP, and an ERA over 11.00 backed up by a 6.22 FIP. The scary part is he’s only giving up a 4.3% barrel rate after 14.9% last year. If that starts to go the other way, lookout. 

Bumgarner is relying on a four-seam and cutter almost 80% of the time and Juan Soto, Josh Harrison, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bell, and Victor Robles are all positive against the four-seam. Both pitches have an xwOBA over .400 and this spot is crazy dangerous. Turner sits at a wOBA over .600 with a .467 ISO, Zimmerman is at a .382 wOBA and even Soto is at a .375 ISO. There’s honestly not a hitter I wouldn’t consider here. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.16

It is a monster baseball slate tonight with 28 teams in action, so there are plenty of pitching options tonight! The biggest question is how many are solid options that we want to utilize. There are plenty of big names to choose from but they may not be the best options on the table so let’s dig into Starting Rotation 4.16! 

Starting Rotation 4.16 – Cash Targets 

Note – Once again, I’m not going to dig too deeply into Jacob deGrom. The weather in Colorado is calling for snow during the game so I’m not sure if it gets played at all and I doubt that deGrom would be popular at all. If the game is clear, I’d not hesitate at all to pitch him. We already saw Trevor Bauer record 10 strikeouts in Coors. deGrom at potentially low ownership would be fascinating and I’m hoping the game plays. Colorado whiffs about 21.1% at home against RHP so far in 161 plate appearances. 

Max Scherzer ($10,400 DK/$10,400 FD)

Truth be told, I’m not sure what to do with Scherzer based on his two starts. His velocity is down across the board and teams are getting the barrel to the ball at a 20.7% rate. For context, Scherzer has never had a barrel rate over 8.4% in his career and his hard-hit rate has followed at 44.8%. When it’s coupled with a 62.1% fly-ball rate, it’s not hard to see why the HR/9 is spiked at 3.00. That isn’t to say Scherzer is a trash pitcher now, but his K rate has been at about 31% since the start of last year. The FIP of 5.39 isn’t exactly comforting either although the FIP is 3.65. He just may not be as dominant as we’ve been spoiled to see for many years with so many miles on that arm. Also, it’s not like he still doesn’t have some evil pitches –

Arizona also isn’t striking out a ton so far at 23.8% but they are also hitting under .220 as a team. I believe there’s an upside to be had if Scherzer’s fastball can survive. He’s only given up a .125 average but the xSLG is .798 and the xWOBA is .434. The whiff rate is down to 23.1% which is 5% lower than last year as well. Also concerning is the put-away rate from 2020 was 23.5% and this year is 11.8%. If the velocity comes back he could go Vintage Scherzer in a heartbeat. Assuming he’s the chalk, I’m in without question and we can evaluate after this start with how he looks. 

Anthony DeSclafani ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD) 

Do I totally buy into DeSclafani after just two starts? Not exactly, but this is a good spot to keep some positive momentum going. Miami is in the bottom-five in park factor so far this season and the Marlins offense can be had. They are ninth in K rate to RHP at 26.5% and 22nd in wOBA so far this year. DeSclafani is using relatively the same pitch mix as last year but the biggest change is the curve at a 5% higher rate. Seven of his 12 strikeouts have come off that particular pitch and it’s generated a 47.1% whiff rate. He hasn’t been throwing it a ton to RHH and there are six projected for Miami’s lineup. Even still the swinging strike rate jumping from 9.6% to 14.4% is eye-opening and the CSW is up to 26.1%. If you ever wanted to understand why hitters swing at curves, check this out –

DeSclafani’s righty splits are being dragged down a touch by his walk rate over 13% to that side. Still, the OBP is only .318 which is not that bad for how high that walk rate is. The 42.9% fly-ball rate to that side of the plate should be muted by the park and he is still whiffing the righties at a 22.7% rate. He obviously won’t hold a 0.82 ERA but the xFIP is 3.46 and the FIP is 2.05. With the Marlins ranking in the bottom half of the league against the two main pitches and the curve being a great K pitch, DeSclafani makes plenty of sense tonight. 

Yusei Kikuchi ($7,200 DK/$8,800 FD)

The pitch data looks terrifying and we almost always go with Astros hitters against lefty pitching but that’s not the case tonight. Not only does Houston go out on the road but Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado are all out of the lineup. That’s a massive hit to the lineup and if Kikuchi can keep up his start to the season, he may cut through this lineup like a knife through butter. He’s been touching 97 MPH regularly with his fastball this year –

Kikuchi has a 32.7% K rate so far and his CSW has jumped to almost 32%. He’s throwing his cutter the most of any pitch and it’s ranked 10th among starters so far this season. The only remaining hitter that has a positive cutter rating is Kyle Tucker and he’s only sporting a .200 wOBA to lefties so far this season. The two scariest hitters left are Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel (who leads the league in fastball rating and has a .553 wOBA and .263 ISO. Hello one-off hitter) and that’s not enough to avoid Kikuchi. I’m not going to hold the last start against him all that much because the Twins are built to smack lefties. The Astros are as well…when they’re healthy. I’ll be very interested to see who the field flocks to on DK as their SP2 tonight. 

Honorable Mention – deGrom, Walker Beuhler

Starting Rotation 4.16 – GPP Targets

Steven Matz ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) 

I’m not in love with the salaries because I’m not sure Matz has the ceiling to go with it. Still, he’s been excellent so far this year and he even navigated the Angels lineup, which can hit lefties some nights (although not that night when I played him). I’ll go back to him here as his sinker has been his go-to pitch so far. It’s only allowed a .107 average, .285 xwOBA, and a .285 xSLG to this point with eight of the 13 strikeouts. Kansas City has a strong rating against fastballs, but they are very top-heavy. Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and Michael A. Taylor are the only ones with a 1.0 rating or higher. The other great metric in Matz’s favor is his ground ball rate. 

If we’re not totally sold on the strikeout upside, we need ground outs and Matz is at a 55.2% rate so far. It just so happens that the leading ground ball team to lefty pitching are these Royals, which is fantastic news for Matz. They only whiff about 21% of the time. The biggest concern is likely the 19.4% K rate to RHH for Matz so far since the Royals are very righty-heavy in their lineup. It’s the main reason I won’t go there in cash but Matz has upside potential even if the path is a little less clear. 

JT Brubaker ($7,500 DK)

This might seem like an oddball pick at first glance but digging in, Brubaker looks like a great option. The Brewers are struggling badly offensively right now, ranking no higher than 22nd in average, OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. On top of that, the K rate is an even 25%. That’s already a nice checkmark for Brubaker. The CSW is respectable at 28.2% and the swinging strike rate is also solid at 10.9%. Brubaker has also kept the hard contact down at 24% while the Brewers sit 28th in that category. His slider is the key, as it has six of his 10 strikeouts and a 32% whiff rate. What is really encouraging is the splits because he has owned lefties thus far. 

That side of the plate is hitting for a .167 average, .227 wOBA, and a 2.95 FIP. The K rate is stagnant at 23.8% for each side and the Brewers projected lineup has five lefties with the pitcher spot on top of it. Of those lefties, Christian Yelich has a 0.7 rating and Omar Narvaez has a 0.2 rating against the slider. Every other lefty is in the negatives in FanGraphs rating. He’s averaging a little over 16 fantasy points despite only pitching four and 5.1 innings in each start. If he can go a little deeper than 82 or 72 pitches, he could be a very cheap 20 DK points. It could help his cause to go deep into the game since the Pirates only got 3.1 innings out of their starter yesterday. I would only use him as an SP2 on DK and skip him on FD. 

Honorable Mention – Adrian Houser, Mike Foltynewicz in MME formats 

Gas Can of the Slate – If it plays, the Mets are in Coors Field against a pitcher who has given up a .346 wOBA to LHH over his career and only strikes them out 14% of the time. New York has Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil at $4,200 or less on DK. Add in Francisco Lindor or Pete Alonso and away you go. 

Let’s talk about a less obvious spot. Well, it’s probably still fairly obvious but I digress. The Rangers are drawing one of the weakest pitchers on the slate in Baltimore’s Jorge Lopez. He’s allowing a barrel rate over 11% and a hard hit rate over 44%, to go along with a 3.12 HR/9. Lopez also is getting crushed by lefties with a .300 average, 1.062 OPS, .459 wOBA, and a 7.7% K rate. Friends, if you’re not going to miss Joey Gallo’s bat you’re going to have a hard time. There should be at least 4-5 lefties in the lineup and in honesty, the .388 wOBA to righties isn’t anything to write home about for Lopez either. 

Gallo, Nate Lowe, Jose Trevino, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all over a .335 wOBA and Gallo is super fascinating. This is a hitter with a career .282 ISO against righty pitching and so far this season, he’s at .000. That’s not a typo. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that won’t stick forever. Even Adolis Garcia is well in play, as he’s been hitting clean-up and he’s just $2,700. I’ll make a home run call early and say Gallo leaves the yard tonight as a centerpiece to a Texas stack.

Starting Rotation 4.16 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.14

We’re back with a split slate on Wednesday with five and seven games in front of us. It shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the pitching on today’s slate is….not great. The early slate especially looks a little rough but let’s talk about both in the Starting Rotation 4.14 and figure out who we need to target for the green screens!

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Early Slate 

There’s not much of a discussion in my eyes about who’s the lock on the five-game slate and it’s Corbin Burnes. His cutter continues to do the heavy lifting with a 33.3% whiff rate even though Burnes is throwing it about half the time. It’s the highest-rated cutter in the league via FanGraphs rating and even though Chicago is 12th against the pitch, Burnes is just nasty. The Cubs are flirting with a 30% K rate as a team and Burnes is at a 48.8% K rate through 12.1 IP and a massive 37.6% CSW. This cutter is just silly good –

I only really “like” two other options. The first is Jake Arrieta and we all know that I don’t love playing him. In honesty, it’s kind of a scary spot for him. He’s got a bit of a weakness to the left side of the plate with a .329 wOBA and a .300 average. Now, he does strike them out at a 24.2% rate but Milwaukee should feature five lefties. There’s virtually no upside at the price either. The Brewers offense hasn’t done a lot and only has the 27th ranked wOBA to righty pitching. I’d like to see the ownership before deciding on Arrieta. 

The other pitcher that might be worth playing is Nathan Eovaldi. Minnesota is a very tough spot as they sport a top 10 mark in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They also smash some fastballs at a top 10 rate and Eovaldi throws a four-seam, split-finger, and cutter almost 65% of the time. Eovaldi does have a 31.7% CSW and a 63.3% ground ball rate to go with a 16.7% hard-hit rate. At the price, we don’t need a ton and I’d rather go after the Twins offense than the Red Sox with Kenta Maeda (who is wildly cheap in his own right), though neither sounds that fun. 

The Red Sox strike out at a much lower rate (22.7%), are number one in ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and average against righties. Yikes. As I said, neither matchup is a walk in the park and you’re hoping either pitcher didn’t get blown up. I’ll slightly lean Eovaldi and I honestly will likely avoid cash on this slate. There are enough games but the pitching is dreadful. I plan on playing lighter and likely just in GPP. 

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Cash Picks 

Dustin May ($9,400 DK/$9,000 FD) 

It won’t come as a surprise but I’m back to attacking the Rockies outside of Coors Field. May was superlative in his first start and I do think he could be a little overpriced, but for this slate, he’s one of the safest candidates out there. May’s largest issue in the past has been not enough strikeouts as his career K rate is just 21.6% through 90.2 IP. That was different in his first start and his cutter was one of the main reasons. It whiffed five of the eight A’s that night and it was moving a lot more than last year. In 2020, it was at 23.8 inches of drop, and this year it was at 26 inches. He also added some drop onto the curveball and everything clicked for him. I mean, what are you supposed to do with this?

Do I fully trust him to do it again? Not exactly, but the spot is fantastic and May has always had some serious like on his pitches. Seeing the CSW jump from 26.3% to 32.9% and the swinging strike rate go from 8.4% to 17.6% is super exciting, even if it is just one start so far. This kid is still only 23 years old and his first 90 innings might just have been learning the ropes. May also generated a 61.5% ground ball rate in that first start so there’s a ton to be excited about here. On a slate where there’s not a ton of trust to go around, he checks in as my number one play. 

Charlie Morton ($7,600 DK/$8,500 FD)

Alright, after Max Fried got wrecked last night let’s try this again. The crafty veteran Charlie Morton toes the rubber tonight and is in a little better spot simply because he throws the ball right-handed. Miami is striking out over 26% against righties and Morton has a 26.7% K rate through two starts. His four-seam/curve combo has done the job with a 41.7% whiff rate or higher so far to rack up 10 of his 12 strikeouts. The swinging strike rate is down a hair at 11.7% but the CSW is up 34.4% so Morton still looks quite dangerous. Morton’s velocity is up slightly too to 94 MPH on the four-seam, which is a great sign coming off only 33 IP last season. 

For him to succeed, Morton needs to generate ground balls and he has at a 50% rate and he’s at his best when holding RHH to very little. So far, he’s held both sides of the plate to a wOBA of .270 or lower and the righties are at a 2.02 xFIP. Morton is also sporting an xFIP/FIP combo of 2.85 or lower so he’s been a little unlucky so far with a 3.27 ERA. Teams won’t continue to have a .345 BABIP against Morton and he’s too cheap for the spot against a lineup that should feature just two lefties. 

Starting Rotation 4.14 – GPP Picks

Lance McCullers ($9,900 DK/$9,500 FD) 

McCullers is a pitcher that could wind up chalky but I’m never going to feel great about it. I believe last game he was between 50-60% in cash settings and he didn’t clear 18 DK points. I like McCullers but I will always feel more comfortable with him in GPP. We do have to talk about him adding a slider this year, which has done very well for him.

McCullers has thrown it the most of any pitch and it has six of 13 strikeouts for him on the season. He’s thrown it 63 times and has yet to even allow a hit to go along with the 47.1% whiff rate on it. The ground ball rate of 66.7% is highly encouraging for McCullers as well, though Detroit is 24th in ground ball rate so far. 

McCullers is also down in swinging-strike rate by just a bit but the CSW is up 2.2% so that’s a fine tradeoff. There are some fears here with the walk rate because not only does a 14.6% walk rate put folks on base, it runs up that pitch count in a hurry. The Tigers are only walking 8.1% on the year but McCullers has nights where he needs a GPS to find the strike zone. The other major fear is McCullers has started poorly against LHH. That’s not been an issue through the career, but through the first 14 hitters, he’s given up a .437 wOBA and a 6.45 FIP. Detroit has six lefties projected for the lineup so it has to be at least talked about. If he’s chalky, I’ll eat in in cash but this isn’t the absolute best spot for McCullers. 

Zack Wheeler ($8,400 DK/$9,700 FD) 

I already saw some noise on social media about the “Wheeler Revenge” game and my eyes about rolled out of my head. It’s not that big of a deal, Wheeler got $100 million. I think he’s alright guys. Anyways, he could wind up being chalky on DK because the price is more than reasonable and the Mets have been average. Perhaps the biggest issue for Wheeler is even if the Mets aren’t hitting a ton, they don’t strike out either. Only the Padres whiff less on the season and I’m not sure where the ceiling is for Wheeler. It doesn’t help figure out what version of Wheeler we’re getting when his K rate is easily a career-high at 31.1%. For his career, it sits at 22.6% so that’s a significant gap. 

With that number in hand, it’s not shocking that the swinging strike rate is up 3% and the CSW is up about 7%. The fastball is excellent so far with half of the 14 strikeouts and that’s where things get interesting. It helps when you can blow hitters away with 100 MPH upstairs –

Brandon Nimmo leads the team at 3.1 in FanGraphs rating against the pitch and he’s 19th in baseball so far. After that, Jacob deGrom is fifth on the team against the fastball. You read that correctly. The Mets regular hitters are not doing much against that fastball right now so even with some flaws in the spot, Wheeler could get it done in a big way here. 

Honorable Mention – I’ll at least throw in a mention of Zack Plesac but I’m going to have a hard time getting to him. We talked about this before but he’s looking a lot more like the 2019 version with an 18-20% K rate and that’s not enough to pay the top dollar for. The CSW is under 27% and I think he has the least attainable ceiling of the high-salary group. On the other side of the game, Carlos Rodon is somewhat interesting but the Indians are striking out at the second-lowest rate in baseball. 

Gas Can of the Slate – I used the Braves stack last night and I’ll go right back to the well tonight. The Marlins bullpen pitched five innings last night and now they turn to Nick Neidert who was not good in the first start if we look at the metrics. He only gave up one earned run across 4.1 IP but the xFIP was 6.84 and he walked more hitters than he struck out. The swinging strike rate is only 8.2% and if you can’t miss Atlanta bats, you’re going to get worked over. I’m going to borrow some of what we talked about yesterday – 

The first two have to be Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman. Acuna is making an early case for possibly the best player in baseball and has a .531 ISO and .571 wOBA while Freeman has a .360 ISO. Both players are under 18% for their K rate and both have serious upside against a pitcher who can’t strike folks out and throws a fastball 54% of the time. If Acuna walks, he’s got a great shot to swipe second immediately. 

Atlanta has been below average to start but we’re talking around 30 plate appearances. They also woke up last night with eight runs. Also, dial it back to last year and Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies all had a wOBA over .360 and an ISO over .240. All six hitters occupied six of the top nine spots on the Braves against the fastball in 2020 as well. 

Starting Rotation 4.14 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.11

The good news is we have a 10 game slate on this wonderful Sunday afternoon! The bad news is the pitching leaves an awful lot to be desired. There’s not a single ace at our disposal and some pitchers are priced crazy high for their potential. With 10 games, we’re going to keep a small player pool in the Starting Rotation 4.11 to narrow our focus to find the green screens! 

Starting Rotation 4.11 – Cash Picks 

Marcus Stroman ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) 

I hope Mr. Stroman enjoys being in the cash picks because he’s not a pitcher that I turn to very often. If we just played pitchers for swag, Stroman would be a top play across all formats.

Like I mentioned, this slate is tough. Typically, Stroman is not a pitcher that has a lot of upside especially when he’s over $9,000. In the course of his career, Stroman has a K rate of just 19.5% but does counter that with a 58.8% ground ball rate. The CSW in his first start was dead in line with his career numbers as well at 27.1% so there’s not likely new upside for strikeouts after a year away.

When we do look at Stroman, I prefer to go after a righty-heavy lineup and the Marlins fit that bill with only two projected lefties in their main eight spots. The wOBA is about equal to each side of the plate at about .301 but the K rate goes up to 20.4% to righty hitters. Miami does have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate as a team so far but they also are striking out 23.5% of the time and hitting under .200. This is about as good of a spot that Stroman can have, even if the price is still gross.

Trevor Williams ($8,300 DK/$8,000 FD)

Another starter that is mostly a stranger to cash picks is ex-Bucco Trevor Williams. The ex-Bucco part seems to be increasingly important anymore. Let’s take a look at the first eight starts for former Pirates starters – 

So that seems bad if you’re a Pirates fan. Williams was outstanding in his first start for the Cubs and actually displayed some strikeout upside. When we’re early on in a season, it can be very difficult to know if a player is for real or if it’s just a small sample size. I’m more prone to buy in if there’s a definite change for the player and Williams checks that box with a brand new pitch mix. 

Williams dialed back the four-seam usage and relied more heavily on the change and curveball. The only hits he allowed were off the four-seam and the sinker, while the curve and change gave up no base hits and two strikeouts. The Pirates are whiffing 25% of the time so far and I won’t say I totally trust Williams, but the 36.5% CSW was eye-popping from him. On this slate, he comes in as a “safe-ish” option. 

Honorable Mention – The GPP section will be slightly bigger and we can maybe bump a player into cash, based on projected ownership. 

Starting Rotation 4.11 – GPP Picks

Jordan Montgomery ($9,900 DK/$8,500 FD)

Montgomery is closest to cash but I’ll be the first one to say that I have a mental block with this price. His last 48 IP over 2019-20 produced an ERA well over 5.00 but the xFIP was under 3.65. Are we seeing a pitcher who was on the wrong end of some bad luck throughout 50 innings correct? Was it just one good start? These are fair questions that we don’t have strong answers to yet. You can say the same thing about Williams but at least his matchup is better.
Tampa is a mixed bag against lefties. They whiff over 27% of the time, which is certainly appealing. They are also right about the top 12 in wOBA, ISO, OBP, wRC+, and OPS. Montgomery changed his pitch mix as well, which is notable. The cutter was his least-used pitch last year but he leaned on it in this first start. That and the sinker allowed the lowest ISO in 2020 so leaning into the cutter could really work out. His change and his curve were his two pitches that got the most strikeouts with a combined 35 out of 55. This could be his most beneficial pitch mix and the Rays are below average against all three but I won’t pretend that he’s set in stone. This start could go either way in my eyes.

JT Brubaker ($7,800 DK/$6,200 FD)

Cubs Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 24th FB – 25th CH – 7th 

Now, the Pirates’ pitching isn’t typically something we like but Brubaker has a little bit of potential here. He’s only pitched 51.1 innings in the big leagues but there are some positive metrics to like. The K rate is right at 24%, the ground ball rate is 47.6% and the hard-hit rate is under 29%. These are all good signs that could hint at something that could turn into a great start. The slider is of particular interest. Of all starting pitchers last year that logged 30 IP, Brubaker’s slider was 26th across baseball. That was in his first taste of major league action. 

Three Cubs boasted a FanGraphs rating over 1.0 against the slider in 2020 and Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward could cause issues at the plate for Brubaker. Still, Brubaker whiffed 24 of his 48 strikeouts with the slider last season. It was also his second-best ISO allowed pitch at .148. The Cubs as a team have been so bad to start the year that it’s at least worth a shot. They are dead last in average and OBP while they rank no better than 25th in any major offensive category we value. On top of that, the K rate is the fourth-highest against RHP. It’s risky, but there is a ceiling here after seeing Brubaker score 14.8 DK points in four innings versus the Reds in the first start. 

Chris Flexen ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD)

This is going to be the test of strikeouts are king because there’s plenty of metrics that would lead us towards the Twins today. First off, the pitch data skew in their favor as they are top-eight against three of four pitches. Minnesota is also top 10 in all of the major offensive categories so why are we even looking at Flexen? For all the Twins do very well, they are striking out at the fifth-highest rate against righty pitching thus far. 

The first start since 2019 for Flexen in America was pretty interesting as well. His pitch mix was significantly different as he used the four-seam almost 60% of the time in 2019. He jumped his cutter usage to almost a third of the time and he struck out three hitters while giving up just one hit. Byron Buxton is the only Twins hitter with a FanGraphs rating over 0.1 so far this season which is intriguing. Getting into shape has helped Flexen a lot and this is going to be a fun test. This is not a single entry play but I still want some exposure if Flexen continues to put it together. 

Honorable Mention – Both Matt Shoemaker and Daniel Ponce de Leon have some appeal but I don’t feel strongly about either. Shoemaker especially had some concerning metrics with fly ball rate, CSW, and a small dip in velocity. 

Gas Can of the Slate – Tanner Roark is pitching for the Blue Jays today which means we need some Angels in the lineup. Since the start of last season, Roark has displayed a 6.80 ERA or higher along with an xFIP of a least 5.84. The K rate is under 19%, the hard-hit rate is at least 39%, and the fly ball rate has spiked over 45%. He threw the fastball and slider about 58% of the time in the first start and they both had an xwOBA over .720. 

Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Jared Walsh all have wOBA’s over .440 so far against righty pitching with ISO’s of at least .450. Sure, those numbers have to come down some but it may not happen today. If that wasn’t enough, guess which three hitters are the best fastball/slider hitters on the team? I think the three main players in this stack are pretty clear. 

Secondary Players – Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher, Max Stassi 

Starting Rotation 4.11 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 7-4

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