MLB DFS GPP

Starting Rotation 6.23

There’s a six-game slate in the afternoon and a seven-game slate tonight in the majors! It doesn’t exactly feature the pitching we had last night, that doesn’t mean we don’t have some choices. By “some” I don’t exactly mean a whole lot and I would suspect that the popularity is concentrated in a few spots in Starting Rotation 6.23, so let’s get into it! 

Starting Rotation 6.23 – Early Slate Targets 

Kevin Gausman – The righty from the Giants is 15th in K rate and top-five in both swinging-strike rate and CSW. He’s been lights out and has both sides of the plate under a .220 wOBA so he deserves to be the highest-priced player on the early slate. The Angels are about 15th in K rate to righties and sit 23rd against the splitter. That pitch has 70 strikeouts on the season with a 49.1% whiff rate and just a .147 wOBA. Unsurprisingly, it’s the highest-rated splitter on the FanGraphs page at 14.2. The next closest is Yusei Kikuchi at 4.1. 

Brandon Woodruff – We can always easily ignore a poor start in Coors Field and Woodruff still has a 2.80 xFIP to go with his 1.94 ERA. Both sides of the plate are under a .220 wOBA but against lefties is where Woodruff is at his best with a 33.3% K rate and a .078 WHIP. The double ace approach is going to make plenty of sense because, with the metrics at hand, these two pitchers are a notch above any other options. 

Shohei Ohtani – This is a dangerous spot for Ohtani based on the splits since he’s worse to lefties with a .308 wOBA. The same thing could be said for his last two starts as Arizona and Detroit have plenty of lefties and Ohtani came through those two with 13 strikeouts, three walks, and three earned runs. San Francisco has strikeout upside with a K rate around 26% but they also rank top-five in all of our offensive categories to righty pitching. I’m more of the train of thought to pay up for pitching ahead of Ohtani today. 

German Marquez – Just looking through the last 10 starts from Marquez, he has seven with 18 DK or more. The there three have been straight awful but two have come against the Giants offense, a tough matchup for anyone. Now he gets to go from Coors into Seattle and draws a Mariners lineup that has the third-highest K rate to righty pitching in the league at 26.2%. Seattle does have a 39.9% fly-ball rate but Marquez counters that with a 23.2% ground ball rate. At a guess, I would say the field goes Marquez/Woodruff as the chalk pairing today. 

Starting Rotation 6.23 – Honorable Mention Early Slate

Caleb Smith – Coming off a big start against the Dodgers (kudos to Brian for that call), he draws a much friendlier matchup against the Brew Crew. Milwaukee only whiffs 21.2% against lefty pitching so that’s not ideal but Smith also has a 20 DK point start against them just a couple of turns ago. Smith counters with a 26.8% K rate and I’m very curious to see what the field does with him. 

Starting Rotation Special 

He’s better to the right side of the plate with a 25% K rate, 3.86 xFIP, and a .260 wOBA. That’s going to be highly useful against the opposing lineup considering they are very righty-heavy and they are 10th in K rate over 25%. The mystery pitcher doesn’t have an overwhelming pitch but his cutter and curve make up about 40% of his pitches and they sit between 25-30% for the whiff rate. His ground ball rate is just under 52% and the HR/9 is only 0.88. 

His name is Eric Fedde. 

Starting Rotation 6.23 – Stacking Options Early Slate 

• Nationals against Vince Velazquez 
• Tigers against John Gant 
• Rockies against Justus Sheffield 

Starting Rotation 6.23 – Main Slate Targets 

Robbie Ray 

We were lukewarm on Ray in his last start and the fade paid off as Ray only went 4.1 innings and struck out five. I’m going right back to him tonight against the Marlins in Miami and Ray destroyed them the last time he saw them. He went six strong innings and struck out nine hitters while giving up just one earned run. Miami is also one of the home parks that I tend to look at home/road splits and the Marlins offense has been the worst in baseball in that split. I grant you they have the second-least plate appearances against lefties at home this year but rank 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season. They also lead baseball in ground ball rate and that’s sure to help Ray’s 43.2% rate on the year. 

Ray continues to sport a 31.5% K rate on the season with just a 6.5% walk rate and that is one of the best accomplishments of his season. Even on a steady diet of fastballs, he still has generated a 16.1% swinging-strike rate which should help negate the 22% K rate for the Marlins. The .326 wOBA to righties is not ideal but it’s carried by the 2.09 HR/9. That metric doesn’t scare me as much in Miami against this offense so Ray checks in as an excellent option for tonight. 

James Kaprielian

Kaprielian is a bit of a conundrum. At age-27, I didn’t think he’d be anything special in the majors and have not really gotten a good read on him yet. He continues to churn out fantasy-worthy starts and has a 2.84 ERA, a 26.8% K rate, and a 30% CSW with a 10.9% swinging-strike rate. His secondary offerings have been excellent with none of them having a wOBA above .204 and the slider especially is nasty with a 40.7% whiff rate and only two hits in 20 BBE. Texas is a top-five team in K rate to righty pitching and Kaprielian is still fairly affordable. 

Now, having said all of that, there also continues to be some red flags here. For one, the splits could haunt Kaprielian here as he’s gotten smacked by lefty hitters with a .373 wOBA, 6.18 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and 18.3% K rate. That is a major issue with four lefties lurking in the Texas lineup. His xFIP overall is still closer to 5.00 and the fly-ball rate is very high at an even 50%. There is some talent here and I’ll be interested to see what the popularity looks like. If he’s high, we can pull the calculated fade but if not, it could be worth some risk with the K upside. 

Jose Urquidy 

Urquidy isn’t a player that I’m typically running to play but the Orioles offense against righty pitching has been dreadful. They sport a K rate over 25% and that should draw more strikeouts from Urquidy and his 22% K rate this year. There is generally a lot of average metrics like the 4.22 xFIP and the 32.1% ground ball rate, but the 25.5% hard-hit rate does soothe some fears with the fly balls. It is weird to see Urquidy have a low K rate because the swinging-strike rate is respectable at 11.6% and the O-contact rate and Contact rate are both down from last year. That means he’s generating more swinging strikes with hitters making less contact, but the desired result hasn’t been there quite yet. 

The salary is quite attainable on DK and by his splits, Baltimore could present a challenge. They should have six righties and that side has been tougher on Urquidy this season. The wOBA is .322 with a 4.68 xFIP, so you’re left to decide on which you believe in more – his splits or the Orioles offense being poor. I’ll take my shot with a pitcher against the 27th offense OPS and wRC+, 30th in OBP, and 28th in wOBA. 

Starting Rotation 6.23 Honorable Mention Main Slate 

Trevor Bauer – I’m betting that everyone plays Bauer much as we saw with Gerrit Cole last night. We also saw that Cole was iffy once again and while Bauer was excellent last time out, I’m not convinced I want to pay for him with other options available. We can bet Bauer is going to be checked multiple times considering a player like Max Scherzer was last night. This is a huge rivalry game and the Padres will not be above some gamesmanship in this one. Maybe it bites me but I’m willing to take the chance on the fade. It’s not the best pitching slate so I expect plenty of chalk with Bauer tonight. The xFIP to lefties is 4.42 so you can take some shots with Padres bats as well. 

Starting Rotation 6.23 Stacking Options 

• A’s against Mike Foltynewicz
• Astros against Thomas Eshelman 
• Braves against Thomas Szapucki 
• Royals against Michael King 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.19

It’s Saturday and that means we get the split slate for our MLB action today! The afternoon is an eight-game slate and the evening is seven, which would typically mean we’d go with a full breakdown for the afternoon. However, today we’re going in a little bit different direction and doing the full breakdown for the evening slate. To my eyes, there are a multitude more directions to go in the evening so let’s dig into that and more in the Starting Rotation 6.19! 

Starting Rotation 6.19 – Afternoon Slate

Alex Wood – I stayed away last game due to that matchup but Wood walked right through Arizona for 23.9 DK points. Today, he draws the Phillies lineup at home and Philly is sixth in K rate to lefty pitching at 27.4%. Philly is also 19th against the slider and that has been the out pitch for Wood with 45 of his 61 strikeouts. It also has the lowest wOBA among the three pitches and a 40.7% whiff rate. Wood has shown fairly consistent upside this season and carries a 3.59 xFIP into this start. The salary doesn’t match the potential in this start with Philly ranking no higher than 16th in wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. 

Alek Manoah – This is an excellent spot for the youngster as Baltimore ranks in the bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, slugging, OBP, and average. They do come “up” to 21st in ISO and they also whiff 25% of the time. I really do like to see him mixing his pitches as all four are thrown at least 10% of the time and the four-seam is only used 42% of the time. Often when a prospect comes up, they can rely too much on the main pitches. We do have to point out that the xFIP of 4.58 doesn’t exactly match the 2.66 ERA but I’m not sure Baltimore is equipped to take advantage. Manoah boasts a 25.3% K rate and a 12.2% swinging-strike rate, which are both great for this early in his young career. 

Aaron Nola – I feel like we have to mention him because he’s the biggest name, but it’s undeniably a difficult spot. He is worse to lefties with a .336 wOBA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 1.59 HR/9. That’s not exactly what you want when facing the Giants but they do whiff at a top-five rate of 26.1%. I would plan to stick with Wood and Manoah personally as I don’t think spending up is the best course. 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Honorable Mention

Chris Bassitt – He’s far too expensive for my liking but the Yankees do have their offensive issues against righty pitching. Bassitt sports a 25.6% K rate himself but paying over $11,000 requires a massive score and I don’t think that’s the likeliest outcome. 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Stacking Options 

• Blue Jays 
• Red Sox 
• Cubs 
• Mets 
• Cleveland/Pirates 

Starting Rotation 6.19 – Evening Slate 

Walker Buehler 

I’m legitimately hesitant every single start with Buehler and I’ll be the first to tell you I have some bias with him. He’s just not a guy I like to play and I almost always feel like he’s overpriced for a 23.8% K rate. That’s easily his lowest mark in the majors and the 11.6% swinging-strike rate is lower than last season as well. On paper, it isn’t the best spot as Buehler is weaker to the left side of the plate with a .296 wOBA, 4.09 xFIP, and the K rate drops to 21.3%. Perhaps the Diamondbacks’ struggles against the fastball are what can do them in and Buehler did post 30 DK against them once already. Buehler seems to rarely get blown up in any start so he does have some element of safety even if he’s not my favorite fantasy pitcher. 

Lance Lynn 

If the splits hold up for Lynn, this honestly isn’t that poor of a matchup for him. Houston should have to roll out 6-7 righty hitters and are missing Kyle Tucker. Lynn is incredible to the right side of the plate with a .211 wOBA, 0.78 WHIP, 2.98 xFIP, and a 34.5% K rate. I grant you that Houston doesn’t strike out much and they are last in K rate at 19.2%. Lynn can still get the job done and you can pencil him in for around 100 pitches every single start. He also only gives up a 25.3% hard-hit rate to the right side and overall the K rate is above 28%. I wonder if the price tag keeps the field off of him but I’m interested regardless. 

Patrick Sandoval 

I couldn’t imagine a time last season when Sandoval wasn’t going to be a target to stack against, but he has been fantasy relevant in his last three starts. Anyone can have good starts but when you see two of them came against Oakland and Arizona, that has my curiosity. Then we pull up his pitch data and now he has my attention because his mix is way different than last season. Sandoval used the four-seam 44% of the time last year and it’s demonstrably a poor pitch as the wOBA is over .400 for 2020 and 2021. What Sandoval has done is “hidden” it a bit more and mixed it with a sinker (also not a good pitch, it rarely is anymore) and he still uses the slider. His change is really the leader with a 58.9% whiff rate and only a .191 wOBA allowed. 

His xFIP is just 3.97 and he’s generating a ground ball rate of 53.2%. Even if we toggle to the start of May 1st, Detroit is more of a 15-20 offense in our normal categories and is still over a 25% K rate. They are also over 44% in ground ball rate so that does help. Sandoval has a .325 wOBA to righty hitters and will face around 7-8 of them, but he also has a .313 BABIP to that side. This is a risky play at the salary but when young pitchers change their pitch mix and see results, it is interesting. With Sandoval only having 109.1 IP under his belt and still just 24-years old, perhaps something is clicking. Be very aware this could go south and if you took the approach to stack Detroit, I couldn’t say you’re way off-base. 

Austin Gomber 

Before we go any further, we have to acknowledge just how unbelievable Gomber has been in Coors Field this season. To this point, he has it figured out with a 0.95 ERA, .204 wOBA, 22.6% K rate, 0.81 WHIP, and a 47.8% ground ball rate. Now, this sample is just 28.1 IP and the xFIP is over 4.00 so there will be some style of regression. It’s still impressive considering his home starts have been Padres twice, Dodgers, Astros, and Rangers. That’s not the easiest set of offenses to take out anywhere, let alone Coors. 

Only two of his 14 starts have resulted in more than three earned runs allowed and 11 have been two or fewer. His one terrifyingly poor start is pretty far in the rearview right now and he shouldn’t be this cheap. I would bet the DK algorithm just picks up Coors and goes there. Milwaukee can be a boom or bust offense as they sit eighth in ISO but are below average in OBP, slugging, wRC+, and wOBA. The Brew Crew also sports a K rate of 28.6% which is the third-highest in baseball. This feels very much like the first time I’ve ever written up pitchers three days in a row in Coors, but here we are. 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Honorable Mention 

Josh Fleming – Attacking Seattle typically goes well but Fleming has a K rate under 15%. I understand he’s cheap and we don’t need 7-8 strikeouts from him but it’s hard to get behind a pitcher with that little upside on paper. 

Logan Gilbert – This would be the wild pick that could pay off as Gilbert might be settling into the majors a little bit. In the past three starts, he’s combined for 17.2 IP, 18 strikeouts, six walks, and just four earned runs. He’s scored at least 15 DK points and his swinging-strike rate is over 12.2%. We know the Rays can whiff at a top-five rate (currently sit second at 26.2% against righty pitching) but beware – we’ve seen the downside from him and the Rays can also be very dangerous. I do like he’s starting to throw the changeup a little more because it has a 63.6% whiff rate, but he’s not using it enough to count on yet (only about 10% of the time last start). 

Starting Rotation 6.19 Stacking Options 

• Rockies
• Dodgers
• Cardinals 
• Angels 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.16

There are a ton of games in the majors today and we have split slates in front of us, six in the afternoon and eight in the evening. We’ll be going with the full breakdown in the evening and notes for the afternoon slate so let’s get to work in Starting Rotation 6.16! 

Starting Rotation 6.16 – Early Slate 

Freddy Peralta – It’s a little nerve-wracking to see him over five digits in salary, but he also can’t be ignored on a short slate. He’s still sporting a 37% K rate and that’s third among qualified pitchers. Cincinnati only whiffs 22.1% of the time but Peralta likely faces four righties and the pitcher spot. Peralta has a 43.9% K rate to the right side of the plate (and it’s not like the 30.1% rate to lefties is bad) and the xFIP to righties is 2.31. The Reds are only 20th against the slider and that pitch has a 45.4% whiff rate for Peralta on the year. 

Lucas Giolito – If what the splits tell us stays true, Giolito could be quite the play. He’s far better against the left side of the plate with a .253 wOBA, 31.4% K rate, and just a 1.06 WHIP. Righties have a .356 wOBA and you could certainly argue to play a hitter like Randy Arozarena but with Tampa striking out at a 26.3% rate, there is upside for Giolito. It’s interesting to me that both aces on this slate are not in the best spot and I don’t believe either are “must-plays” in GPP. 

Tarik Skubal – His teammate didn’t work out last night but Skubal has shown more strikeout ability and makes me feel a bit more comfortable in this spot. Since the start of May, his ERA has been under 3.35, the xFIP has been under 3.40, and the K rate has been over 34%. He’s also brought the fly ball rate down and the Royals are 20th or lower in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching this year. We don’t need a ton of strikeouts from Skubal at this salary and he could be popular as folks try to get to Coors Field. I will say Coors is priced to the point where you can use one of the aces and Skubal for your pitchers and still get a sizable chunk of that game. You just have to be willing to attack Blake Snell a bit with Rockies hitters. 

Honorable Mention – Tyler Mahle is in a good spot for strikeouts but seems rather expensive. Brady Singer is someone I wouldn’t feel great about but much like Skubal, he could pick up steam if the field spends on bats. 

Stacking Options 

Padres (Tatis, Machado, Pham, Myers)

Rockies (Cron, Story, Rodgers)

Nationals (Turner, Soto, Schwarber, Harrison)

Starting Rotation 6.16 – Main Slate

Jacob deGrom 

Play him. The End. He generated 36.9 DK points on 80 pitches the last start. We’re moving on but here’s the two GIF’s to enjoy. 

Clayton Kershaw 

Kershaw in a spot where the opposing lineup strikes out 27.6% of the time? That sounds fun to me. Looking at the splits for Kershaw would lead you to believe there’s a weakness to righty hitters since the wOBA is .304 and the HR/9 is 1.24. However, Kershaw has gotten hit for a .320 BABIP on that side and the xFIP is only 2.83. That’s not exactly something we should worry about, especially when Philly is 20th in ISO. The slider is everything to Kershaw since it has 71 of 95 strikeouts on the season along with a 43.3% whiff rate. Philly is slightly above average against it but they are also firmly in the negatives in FanGraphs ratings. 

The veteran lefty does give up a little bit more production than he used to but still has a 16.4% swinging-strike rate and a 32.3% CSW. Those rank sixth and eighth in baseball right now so even if he gives up an extra run or a bomb, he’s not going to hurt you that much. If there’s a small concern, the slider is up in the spin rate by right about 200. The whiff rate on the slider was 18.2%. I’m not trying to accuse any pitcher of anything, but we know MLB is bringing the hammer. It’s a small worry with the difference in spin rates from last year to this and the whiff rate followed. 

Bailey Ober 

With deGOAT on the hill tonight, we’re only focused on finding an SP2 because deGrom is one of those players I will lock in and let it ride. Until DK prices him appropriately, he should be locked into your lineups and I would rather lose with him than try and get cute. As far as Ober goes, he has some serious upside at this silly-low price. Since rejoining the Twins rotation, he’s thrown 51 and 73 pitches so we can expect at least 85 tonight as far as a leash goes. The past two starts have scored 12 and 16 DK points, which is more than enough to start with. When looking at his metrics, his 3.82 xFIP jumps off the page next to the 4.85 ERA. 

It’s important to understand that he has all of 13 innings in the majors, but a 26.3% K rate seems totally in line with his minor league numbers. Ober has been above 30% since the A+ level and his .389 BABIP is silly high. His 9.7% swinging-strike rate isn’t spectacular, but remember just how cheap he is. The catch is he has been atrocious to lefty hitters so far with a .610 wOBA, 6.61 xFIP, 16% K rate, and a .563 BABIP. The question remains if the five Mariners lefties can actually take advantage, but for $4,600 I’m willing to find out with some strikeout upside for Ober. 

Honorable Mention 

Zack Wheeler – It was honestly a tough decision to write up Wheeler or Kershaw. I have more of a trust factor in Kershaw but there is no denying Wheeler has been on some kind of heater. In the last seven starts, he’s pitched 51.2 innings, struck out 71 hitters, allowed eight earned runs, and walked six hitters. His ERA since the start of May is 2.08 or better and the K rate is over 34%. Realistically, he and Kershaw are interchangeable and if you go with Wheeler I won’t blame you in the least. 

Aaron Civale – I’m never a huge fan of chasing outlier performances like Civale just had, and the Orioles did just beat him up a little bit two starts ago. He’s fine, but I can’t find much of a reason to not spend $700 more to get to Wheeler. 

Stacking Options 

• Astros against Jordan Lyles (Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman)
• Twins against Justus Sheffield (Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, possibly Byron Buxton)
• There aren’t really a lot of offenses that I want to go fully in on tonight past those two. It might be more of a two or three-man stack kind of night. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!