Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt’s first start for his new team — the New York Mets! But there’s no enough rain in the area to fade him or any of the Mets’ bats considering a delay would only be likely much later in the game.
MLB DFS: The Aces
Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)
There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, and Verlander certainly has some of that coming off TJ surgery. But even with that as a factor, the veteran has the best chance to go deeper into this game than the other arms and has the best projection from a strikeouts/IP standpoint on FanDuel. There’s enough of a gap between him and the rest of the arms to consider him the best play in both cash games and GPPs. I firmly believe that a lot of the concerns folks have about Verlander boil down to typical DFS smokescreens they’ve gleaned from some of his comments, and not actual data. The next guy might end up making sense for large-field GPPs, but Verlander always finds a way to get it done, carried a super low 3.03 and 3.18 xFIP in his last two complete seasons (2018 and 2019), and the Angels have plenty of swing-and-miss potential (and not that much pop) one we get past Ohtani and Trout.
Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)
I may disagree with WinDaily’s Adam Strangis in his assessment of Verlander in his must-read MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/9 article, but I really like his support of Musgrove, who should see lower ownership as DFS participants search for value or the safety of a name like Verlander. The D-Backs are off to s slow start offensively and Musgrove could turn in a 40-point performance if he can navigate through the left-handed bats in Arizona. I can’t say I’m not concerned about the high HR/FB rates over his career, but Musgrove is a better first half pitcher with a full tank of gas — we just need it to not catch fire.
Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)
Bassitt finds himself out of Oakland and pitching for a new team on the road in the nation’s capital, but there’s plenty to like from a game theory perspective about using him tonight. Both SPs in this game offer GPP upside, but more could flock to Joan Adon on both sites given his punt price. Bassitt posted a respectable if somewhat inflated 3.93 xFIP last season compared to the 3.15 ERA, but he’s great at missing bats (0.86 WHIP and 9.10 K/9). Adam’s article points out that Bassitt “kept both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA” — a stat which really stood out. You may need to use Adon in a few if you’re stacking Coors tonight, but if you want to piece together a couple of contrarian stacks and go for the big win in large-field GPPs, Bassitt could be the right path.
More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright
MLB DFS: The Bases
Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, and the Dodgers are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies in their projected total. That means nabbing Mookie Betts ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Trea Turner ($4,500), but it would be a slap in the face if I didn’t mention Will Smith ($3,900 — see what I did there?) or Max Muncy at $3,800. It’s also a good idea to do a few wraparound stacks that include 9-hitter Gavin Lux at an affordable $2,900. They won’t be easy to fit,
The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves
If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers or messing around with a popular Coors Field game, you can pivot to the World Champion Atlanta Braves and their impressive projected total (>5.5) against a very hittable Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. After the obvious core (1-4) stack of Eddie Rosario ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Ozzie Albies ($4,100), we’ve got a couple of possible value plays in Adam Duvall and Alex Dickerson. Duvall has been known to double-dong his way to GPP-winning glory, and Dickerson, if he’s the DH in the lineup, has much less upside but is very cheap for a positive-splits option in a potent lineup. I may deploy a wait-and-see approach to Marcell Ozuna until I see him getting comfortable at the plate again, but he’s also cheap at $3,000.
Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres
Lost in the slate and the disappointment over the absence of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is a Padres lineup that still has plenty of potential and some powerful bats. I’m prioritizing Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100) and newcomer Luke Voit ($2,700), but there’s even more value in guys like Wil Myers ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400). I love that the NL has adopted the DH because we can more easily take advantage of value stacks like the Padres with that extra big bat, and opposing pitcher Zach Davies doesn’t scare me one bit.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
