Mlb Bets

Three StriKes for Saturday August 1

Well everyone as the old saying goes – Mama said there’d be days like this. Yesterday’s edition was shambles, with an 0-3 mark on the day. The only small salvaging point was I did drop a Yu Darvish play in Discord. Obviously that doesn’t count to the overall record, but it does show why you should be hanging with us. Let’s burn the tape from yesterday and get after Three StriKes for Saturday August 1.

StriKe One – Tyler Glasnow, Rays

The big righty burned me once this season but I’m not foolish enough to bet the under on him again, especially at this number.

In his first start, Glasnow whiffed nine Braves on just 72 pitches, including 14 swinging strikes. Baltimore surprisingly sits as the fourth-best K rate to RHP so far but that doesn’t scare me at all. Glasnow jumped to a 33% K rate last season and the Orioles were bottom half against the fastball and the curve last season. This is going to be a tough task for them and Glasnow should get close to 90 pitches in this one.

Bet – Over 6.5

StriKe Two – Trevor Bauer, Reds

Alright so if you read the early version of this yesterday, this won’t be a surprise to you. I wrote up Bauer yesterday but he got bumped to Saturday due to rainout. The matchup hasn’t changed and the number is still enticing.

Bauer does have the same small concern that may have reared its head for Castillo last night. Pitchers against the same team twice in a row are a touch more risky. I still stand by that risk mitigates a little bit when a pitcher like Bauer draws the heaviest strikeout team against RHP since 2019. He’s shown his ceiling by striking out double digit Tigers the first time around. I’m perfectly fine chasing seven in this spot.

Bet – Over 6.5

StriKe Three – Tyler Chatwood, Cubs

So, the first two plays I’m feeling pretty comfortable with. It’s difficult to find a third one that I feel a ton of comfort with, so I would bet this leg the lowest amount and dial back your parlay bet.

Chatwood has always had some issues with walks. For his career, it’s 11.9% and that can be a problem in an instant. However, the Pirates offense continues to simply not be major league caliber. They once again only produced one run last night until dumpster fire Craig Kimbrel gave up homers in the top of the ninth. We talked about the Pirates seeing their K rate jump to near 30% this year. Chatwood surprised with eight K’s in his first start but I think even a sub-par pitcher has a shot at five against the Pirates right now.

Bet – Over 4.5

Record – 11-8

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Friday July 24

Today represents the first full day of MLB action and I can’t miss that chance to join the fun. Normally, Three StriKes will just be four days a week but we’re making the exception for this slate. With that said, let’s see who we’re chasing for Three StriKes for Friday July 24. A perfect site to get a look the night before is monkeyknifefight.com, which we have a link to get started!

StriKe One – Shane Bieber, Indians

As a reminder, we don’t have the actual strikeout props when this is being written but we’ll set our numbers we’re comfortable betting. Bieber catches my eye on this slate because he’s facing the Royals, who already carried a 23% K rate to RHP in 2019. Kansas City stands to get Jorge Soler back from a family matter but will be missing Hunter Dozier. That’s a significant knock on this offense.

Bieber saw his K rate climb all the way to 30.1% in 2019 so that’s a nice check in his box. Additionally, his main two weapons were the fastball and slider, combining for right about 75% of his pitches. Kansas City ranked 24th vs the fastball and 29th vs the slider. That slider mark is actually even worse than it reads because Dozier ranked fifth in the majors against that pitch.

The Royals will welcome back catcher Salvador Perez this season but that is not a reason to avoid them for our purposes. I’m very happy to be looking towards Bieber tonight.

Bet – Hoping for 7.5, likely to bet Over on 8.5. Hammer the Over on Monkey Knife Fight.

StriKe Two – Justin Verlander, Astros

The reigning Cy Young winner is on the mound (Gerrit Cole should have won it) tonight in Houston and I’m quite happy to look in his direction. The matchup is juicy on paper as Verlander posted his best K% of his storied career at 35.4% and Seattle was the fourth-worst strikeout team to RHP in 2019.

This lineup is…well, it’s not good for the rebuilding Mariners. The best batting average was Mallex Smith at .254 which is ugly. Verlander should mow these guys down without much issue. Not like he needs more of an advantage, but the Mariners were no better than 16th against the fastball of slider last season. Verlander checks about everything we could ask for. The only holdup would be if we get some type of pitch count during the day, so hold off on placing the bet.

Bet – Hopeful for 8.5, likely to bet Over on 9.5

StriKe Three – Jack Flaherty, Cardinals

This is the one that I’m the least certain on and will likely lower my bet for Three Strikes Friday July 24. Flaherty might seem like a slam dunk in this spot. He’s pitching at home and the Pirates offense is fighting with the Mariners as one of the worst in the game. Partly fueled by his incredible second half, Flaherty spun a 29.9% K rate in 2019.

Here’s where the catch comes in. The Pirates were awful last year from a runs per game perspective, 12th worst. However, they only whiffed 18.8% of the time which was the second-best mark in the majors. Flaherty did face the Pirates last year twice and racked up 18 total strikeouts so that’s an interesting note.

With the Pirates losing hitters like Gregory Polanco and Melky Cabrera for 2020, the offense is likely even worse. With only 2019 data right now, the K rate has to be noted but I believe Flaherty overcomes it.

Bet – Hoping for 6.5, likely to bet Over on 7.5. Hammer the Over on Monkey Knife Fight.

Parlay – Half unit if we get our hopeful numbers, quarter unit if we don’t

2020 Record – 1-1

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

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