MLB Bet

Three StriKes for Friday 8.7

We were so close yesterday. Dylan Bundy threw a complete game and stuck out 10 hitters. Luis Castillo was iffy for fantasy, but easily soared past his prop. All we needed was Tyler Chatwood. He whiffed two in the first and we were on our way…until he imploded and finished one K short. It’s a fun slate as far as pitching tonight. The frustration from last night is gone (along with some not nice words) and we’re ready to dig on in for Three StriKes for Friday 8.7!

StriKe One – Trevor Bauer, Reds

You’ll notice that we’ve made the switch over to FD Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the link to get in on the action if you can gamble in your state!

Bauer has been on a roll and I have to have some decent trust in a pitcher to go over 7.5 K’s. Eight is a high number to achieve but things really set up well for Bauer in this matchup. The K rate is 42.5% which is just silly even in two starts. Milwaukee really can’t make contact with a 29% strikeout rate so far, second-worst in the majors.

The nice part apart Bauer’s pitch usage is he’s not overly reliant on any secondary offering. He uses a slider/cutter/curve mix between 12.5% and 17.1%. That means if something isn’t working, he has other options. Pitcher like Castillo has to haves changeup and fastball combo working or he’s going to get smacked. Bauer definitely still can get smacked but I don’t see any metrics that say it happens tonight.

Bet – Over 7.5

StriKe Two – Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners

This is likely a good time to point out that we should be going light for Three StriKes for Friday 8.7. There’s plays that I definitely like but we’re relying on non-ace pitchers. Keep that in mind with your bankroll.

I wrote about Kikuchi a bit more in-depth in Aces and Bases so I don’t want to go full repeat. The bottom line here is Kikuchi has shown serious signs of improvement so far in 2020, especially in the K rate department. Are those improvements here to stay? It’s impossible to say from two starts in all honesty. That’s why we manage our bankroll accordingly.

If they are real and tangible through the season, Kikuchi should have little issue passing this prop. Colorado was a K machine team outside of Coors last year and through 50 plate appearances this year, that rate sits at 30%. I’m as comfortable as you can be with a question mark like Kikuchi.

Bet – Over 4.5

StriKe Three – Aaron Civale, Indians

Another reason to tread lightly, Civale has such a low number that I can’t help myself even in a fairly tough spot.

The White Sox have used the injection of Luis Robert and others to jump start their offense a bit. They are top 10 in all the offensive categories that we look at except for ISO (which helps negate the matchup a bit). Chicago is also 0.5% from being a top 10 strikeout team against RHP which is why we’re looking at Civale.

The 37.5% K rate for Civale almost certainly won’t stick around. He never exceeded 26.1% in the minors and his first 57.2 IP in the majors was only 20.3%. Still the number is low enough that we should be interested and Civale is a better bet than the rest of the field this evening.

Bet – Over 4.5

Record – 20-16

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Wednesday August 5

Usually I’m a little annoyed about a 2-1 night but last night I had visions of 0-3 dancing in my head, so I’ll take it. While Max Fried was a flop in the K department, Lucas Giolito and Shane Bieber came through. It looked like they both might not come back out for the money inning but we dodged that bullet. Three StriKes for Wednesday August 5 brings a new day to hunt down the 3-0 day and we’re starting with an absolute rock of a pitcher.

StriKe One – Max Scherzer, Nationals

The basic premise here is if you keep giving me Mad Max at needing eight strikeouts, I’m going to take him basically every time.

Now, I will say if your book gives you 8.5 I think I might shy away. Max is ridiculous, but the Mets could throw enough lefties at him to make the strikeouts tougher. He’s only whiffing lefties 25% of the time as opposed to near 49%(!!) to RHH. That’s about the only issue you can find with Scherzer.

He’s hit double digit K’s in both games so far to rack up a ridiculous 39.6% K rate. What’s crazier is his walk rate is through the roof right now at 13.2%. That’s about double his career average so he’s likely to get better as we go.

Bet – Over 7.5 (If Scherzer is too high at your book, Mike Clevinger at 6.5 has my interest as well)

StriKe Two – Yu Darvish, Cubs

The stalwart for the Cubs has had a little bit of a slow start in the strikeout department by the raw numbers but the metrics beneath look dominant.

His two starts have produced 12 total K’s which seems average. However, he hasn’t thrown over 86 pitches so his K rate is 30%. That’s plenty high enough to target this number and even better, his walk rate is 2.5%. That was really what haunted Darvish in the first half of last year and seeing that under control is great news.

The Royals aren’t an overwhelming strikeout team at 23.1% but they are also dead last in walk rate to RHP at 4.5%. That’s two percentage points lower than the next worst team. They’re only hitting .223 as a team so this seems like a great spot for Darvish to get over 90 pitches and rack up at least seven K’s.

Bet – Over 6.5

StriKe Three – Ryan Dobnak, Twins

It’s the year 2020 and here I am, writing up Randy Dobnak of the Twins to strike out at least four Pirates today. This play for Three StriKes for Wednesday August 5 might seem out of left field, but let me explain.

Dobank is not the prototypical strikeout pitcher, there’s no doubt. He’s only at 19.5% through his 37.1 IP in the majors and the MiLB numbers don’t suggest that’s a mistake. However, the Pirates strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the league. We don’t need to beat a dead horse again. They are the worst offense in the league by every objective measure. Dobnak whiffed four Indians in his last start and threw over 90 pitches. I’m as comfortable as I can be with an unproven pitcher.

Bet – Over 3.5

Record – 18-12

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!

Three StriKes for Tuesday August 4

It sounds like a broken record, but we had yet another 2-1 day on Monday. Now if we averaged 2-1 for the year I’d be pretty happy with a 66% hit rate but I want that 3-0 day. We do have some good options today so let’s continue to chase it down on Three StriKes for Tuesday, August 4.

StriKe One – Shane Bieber, Indians

All Bieber has done so far is pitch 14 innings and struck out an amazing 27 hitters, setting a record in the process. So we would expect his number to be high but this seems lower to me.

You’re getting arguably a top five strikeout arm in the game at just eight strikeouts. That’s interesting enough, let alone looking at the Reds lineup that whiffed six times yesterday against Zach Plesac, a much less accomplished pitcher.

Bieber has a FIP of -0.39 and a 0.50 xFIP to this point which just points to his dominance. He’s introduced a cutter this season to keep hitters off balance. It might not be a strikeout pitch, but it’s still yielded just a .167 average. His K pitches have been the fastball and curveball (22 of 27). The Reds are in the top half of the league against these pitches but I find myself not caring. The 54% K rate for the Biebs isn’t sustainable but 8 K’s tonight is within reach.

Bet – Over 7.5

StriKe Two – Lucas Giolito, White Sox

This game faces two pitchers that I would be interested in betting the strikeout props and might have one on Brandon Woodruff as well. However, the play here is Giolito in my eyes.

The White Sox righty got smacked around in his first start but bounced back in start two with six strong innings and six whiffs. He now draws the Brewers offense that is striking out at 28.0%, the sixth-highest rate in baseball. They also rank 25th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against righty pitching thus far.

So far in two starts, Giolito has cut back on his slider by 10% and has turned to his changeup more. It’s gotten hit so far to the tune of .333 but last year it was only a .191 average and his second best strikeout pitch. The Brewers are bottom 10 against both main pitches and Giolito checks the boxes today for me.

Bet – Over 6.5

StriKe Three – Max Fried, Braves

I have to give MKF some credit here because they have made today a little difficult. There’s not a ton of obvious numbers to try to attack and there’s arguments to be made for a few. I’m settling on Fried and it will be my lowest bet of the evening.

Is it super comfortable to attack the Blue Jays offense? Not exactly, but they have been off here for a bit. Some of the other numbers for pitchers like Jesus Luzardo, Patrick Corbin and Steven Matz are just too high for me. Fried upped his pitch count from 67 to 82 this past start. The Braves also could use him after Mike Soroka unfortunately tore his Achilles yesterday.

Fried has struck out about a batter per inning over the course of his 237 innings in the bigs. That’s also been consistent through two starts this year. The Blue Jays have 61 plate appearances against LHP this year (right about average despite their bizarre schedule) and they have whiffed a massive 31.1% of the time. They are also bottom two in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Fried should go six here and his averages would say he hits six strikeouts today.

Bet – Over 5.5

Record – 16-11

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Monday August 3

We once again went 2-1 in yesterday’s edition so we’re still chasing the ever elusive 3-0 day. Dylan Cease really didn’t get close to his but Aaron Civale wrecked his and Paxton didn’t get anywhere close to seven K’s. We’re going to get a 3-0 day here soon, I can feel it. It could come as soon as today so let’s dive into Three StriKes for Monday August 3.

StriKe One – Jacob deGrom, Mets

deGrom might be coming off a mediocre start but man this number feels depressed for where his pitch count is heading and his metrics so far.

When we look at deGrom through his first two starts, we see eight and four strikeouts. Those numbers don’t exactly pop but remember, he was on a pitch count. One start was 72 pitches and one was 88, so he should be good to go close to 100 tonight. His K rate is basically identical to 2019 at 31.6% where last year was 31.7%. That end of things checks out for me pretty easily.

When we look at the Braves side, we know that the offense is dangerous and they sit in the top 10 in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, ISO and wRC+. However, they also are approaching a 28% K rate. Additionally, deGrom posted a 36.4% K rate against Atlanta last year through 26.1 IP. He faced them four times and hit at least seven K’s all four times. That means a little more to me when the teams are within division and I’m going over for deGrom tonight.

Bet – Over 6.5

StriKe Two – Walker Buehler, Dodgers

I wasn’t going into this article thinking I would go after Buehler since he’ll likely be around 75 pitches. The I saw the prop and I’m quite interested.

Buehler only whiffed three in his first start but the Padres strikeout nearly 5% more than the Astros do this year (24.3%). He leaned on the fastball/cutter mix a good bit in the first start and San Diego is top 15 against both pitches but that’s not something that scares me too much.

Last season saw Buehler post a K rate right about 29% and that’s plenty for me to chase such a low number. He only had two starts against the Padres in 2019 but man did he torture them. In 15 innings, he struck out a ridiculous 26 batters. Even on a shortened pitch count, I think chasing the talent at this number is well worth the risk.

Bet – Over 4.5

StriKe Three – Zach Plesac, Indians

This was a tough choice. I gave Gerrit Cole a look but he sits at 8.5. Despite the Phillies not playing in a week, I couldn’t pull the trigger either way on that one. Instead, give me Plesac and a very attainable number.

Plesac is not the perfect candidate. Yes, he was mighty impressive in his first start. He whiffed 11 in eight innings and Cleveland just seems to churn out strikeout pitchers. It’s still worth noting that Plesac only had an 18.5% K rate in 115.2 innings last year.

The Indians righty really leaned on the slider in the first start at 32.7%, almost as much as the fastball. It generated a swing 63% of the time but yet didn’t yield a single hit. The Reds rank just 18th against that pitch, although they are ninth against the fastball. Losing Joey Votto won’t help their 20.1% K rate as a team and Plesac can get to five in this spot.

Bet – Over 4.5

Record – 14-10

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Sunday August 2

Saturday was about as average a day as you can get for Three StriKes. We went 1-1 with a rainout, so at least it wasn’t a losing day. I can’t quite figure out why Tyler Glasnow doesn’t like me. I mean, I like him but he let me down for the second straight start. It’s funny, the pick I was least confident in was Tyler Chatwood and he destroyed his K prop. Three StriKes for Sunday August 2 is a tougher card to pick so make sure you’re spending your bankroll accordingly and being smart.

StriKe One – Aaron Civale, Indians

Finding reliable strikeout arms isn’t the easiest task today. Civale also doesn’t have the easiest matchup with the Twins but the number is low enough to entice us.

Civale hasn’t been known as a strikeout arm through his limited time in the majors thus far. In 63.2 IP he sits at a 21.7% mark which is respectable but not much more than that. The Twins have the ability to make this pick look silly as they sit inside the top eight in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so far this year against RHP.

The plus side for Ciavle is Minnesota is striking out over 26% on the season despite those gaudy numbers. The Indians righty does a good job of mixing up his pitches, using a cutter about 30% and four other pitches between 10% and 22%. The Twins were the second best team against the cutter last year but in the early going this year, they rank 29th. This is a mixed bag but the low number has me on the over for a talented pitcher.

Bet – Over 4.5

StriKe Two – Dylan Cease, White Sox

It might seem a little counter-productive to target a pitcher with an ERA over 6.00 in about 75 career innings, but this is they type of choice we have this Sunday for Three StriKes.

Cease got beat up in his first start of the year but there’s a big difference between the Indians lineup and the Royals. If we look back to last season, Cease started 14 games and he exceeded this number in eight of them. The K talent is there, it’s just been a question of if he can prevent runs long enough for it to show.

The Royals are a top eight team in K% so far this year at 25.5% and they are bottom 10 in wRC+, wOBA and OPS. Cease uses the fastball about 51% and then the other 49% is a mix of sliders, curves and changeups. This year the Royals are second-best against the fastball but that’s a major shift form 2019 when they ranked 22nd. This is another mixed bag and a reason we should play light, but I do like the over.

Bet – Over 5.5

StriKe Three – James Paxton, Yankees

It tells you what a mediocre slate this is that I was actually considering Jon Lester in this spot. Not only that, it would’ve been the over! Gross. Brian will tell you that I’m basically the Vice President of the Stack Against Lester Every Time Club. However, Paxton’s line is confusing and I believe we can take advantage.

I almost hope it ends this high everywhere because I’m chasing the under for sure. I have a hard time seeing where seven strikeouts come from for Paxton in this spot. For one, he’s pitched one inning so far and it was dreadful. He faced nine hitters and only struck out one hitter. There’s definitely questions about where his arm is even at.

I will absolutely give “Big Maple” credit that when he’s been healthy the past three years, he’s been a strikeout pitcher. Every season he’s had a K rate above 28% so he does have the talent. However, the Red Sox are only striking out at a 17.7% clip so far even without Mookie Betts. Paxton faced Boston four times last year and exceeded this number three times. I just don’t think he’s the same pitcher right now. To make matters tougher, Boston is top 12 against the fastball and curve (Paxton’s two main pitches) and that tracks with the 2019 data as well.

Bet – Under 6.5

Record – 12-9

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Friday July 31

Thursday was another productive day and this one came without a loss. I stuck with my guns and bet on Luis Castillo but he got rained out, so the play didn’t stand. Shane Bieber annihilated his 5.5 prop and Dinelson Lamet cruised as well. It’s always great to have a stress free day and we continue on with Three StriKes for Friday July 31 to see which pitchers we’re chasing down! Make sure to hop over to Monkey Knife Fight to get those picks in!

Bonus – I can’t in good faith make this one of my Three Strikes and turn around to take credit for a win. However, as of 10:12 Thursday night, Jack Flaherty sits at 1.5 strikeouts. This is an obvious hammer on the over. You obviously won’t get this at another sports book.

Update – The game has been postponed

StriKe One – Luis Castillo, Reds

Bauer has a fantastic number here and I would expect it to be a bit higher elsewhere, but we may as well take advantage of it where we can.

MKF had Trevor Bauer as the starter when this was written, but it is in fact Luis Castillo who sits at 7.5 K’s.

Castillo has already faced this Tigers squad in his first game, where he struck out a whopping 11 hitters. He has a three season track record of a K rate above 23% and the matchup against the Tigers literally couldn’t get better statistically speaking. Detroit led the league in K rate to RHP last season and find themselves in the same spot in 2020 by 4.5%.

The pitch data really works in favor of Castillo as well. Detroit was 29th against the fastball and 30th against the changeup in 2019. Those pitches are about 88% of Castillo’s repertoire and it’s a perfect match for us. There is something to be said with pitchers facing the same team twice in a row. The results can be a little less than you’re hoping for the second time around, but the Tigers are a bad offense and Castillo has my full confidence, even at a higher number.

Bet – Over 7.5

StriKe Two – Lance McCullers, Astros

This is another one that’s going to be a fairly easy call. Lest we forget, the Angels will be without Mike Trout who is on paternity leave so the road is even easier for McCullers in this spot.

McCullers is working his way back from Tommy John surgery but his first start of the season went extremely well, pitching six innings striking out six and only giving up two runs. The Angels can be a very difficult team to strike out, as they sported the third-best K rate last year and are in the same spot in the early going.

Still, without Trout and with the number being so low I trust McCullers here. The innings haven’t been there for McCullers over the past three years but the K rate has always been above 25.5%. The Angels were top 12 against the fastball and curve which isn’t the best for McCullers but he can definitely strike out four hitters.

Bet – Over 3.5 (MKF has since moved the line to 5.5, and I’m still going over)

StriKe Three – Mike Minor, Rangers

We’re back to picking on the Giants for our last pick of the night. If the play is working, you keep running until the other team stops it…right?

Minor whiffed six in his first start of the season throwing over 90 pitches, so that aspect seems safe. The Giants really struggled against LHP last year, striking out the eighth-most and finishing in the bottom five in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+.

Another aspect that works in Minor’s favor is the pitch data. He’s a three pitch guy, utilizing the fastball, slider and change. San Francisco finished in the bottom 12 against all three pitch types last year and this just isn’t an offense we should be scared of.

Bet – Over 5.5

Record – 11-5

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Thursday July 30

We were once again haunted by one mediocre performance as Frankie Montas cost us the elusive perfect day on Wednesday. The plus side is Max Scherzer cleared his number with ease (and made sure I had no egg on my face) and Brandon Woodruff smashed his number. All told, it was another good day that built the bankroll and now we’re ready to roll into Three StriKes for Thursday July 30.

StriKe One – Luis Castillo, Reds

Castillo started off his year with a bang, striking out 11 Tigers over the course of six innings in his first start. The matchup takes a jump up today against the Cubs but I’m still going after one of the most talented pitchers in baseball.

If we look back at 2019, Castillo faced these Cubbies four times and totaled six, six, eight and 10 strikeouts in those games. Being only one strikeout away from clearing this number in two starts is encouraging. More encouraging is the Cubs are really struggling to make contact against RHP early on. In the first week, they are sporting a 28% K rate to RHP, fourth-worst in the league.

Castillo had a K rate of 28.9% in 2019 (and obviously that’s much higher through one start so it’s just science or something) which is a nice match. About the only slight negative is the 2019 pitching data. Castillo leaned on the fastball and changeup combo about 88% of the time. The Cubs were top 12 against both pitches, but when everything else lines up for an elite pitcher I tend to not be too worried. Castillo threw 91 pitches the first outing and is ready to roll into this spot.

Bet – Over 6.5

Update – There is some nasty weather in the forecast so if you’re passing on Castillo, I would recommend going with the Over on Brady Singer at 5.5 against the Tigers.

StriKe Two – Dinelson Lamet, Padres

It’s Dinelson Lamet SZN and I’m actually surprised at myself that he wasn’t the first play out of the gate. I’m going to be writing Lamet up many times this season and tonight is no exception.

The Giants might be coming off a game where they hit four home runs at home, but Lamet is an excellent strikeout pitcher and has a reasonable number here. It will be interesting to monitor how the new dimensions in San Francisco play out. It also doesn’t matter for Lamet in my opinion.

Lamet only pitched five innings in his first start which equated to just 80 pitches, but still whiffed eight D-Backs. Lamet has never had a K rate below 28.7% in his time in the majors and it jumped to 33.6% last season. He is almost exclusively a fastball/slider pitcher and the Giants were bottom eight to those pitches last year. That’s also matching with this year on the fastball, though the slider they are 10th (barely in the positive). With the Giants striking out at a 25% clip so far, this is a great spot for Lamet.

Bet – Over 6.5

StriKe Three – Shane Bieber, Indians

I was a little torn on the third player today. Brady Singer was intriguing against a sub-par Tigers offense but in the end, we’re sticking with the stud in the tougher matchup because I think there is real value for Bieber at just 5.5.

Bieber was completely lights out in his first start, striking out 14 Royals in just six innings. It’s safe to say he was ready to roll and even against the Twins, 5.5 is just too low for a pitcher of his caliber. He faced Minnesota five times last year and exceeded 5.5 in three of those starts, hitting double digits in one of them. Bieber also posted a 30.1% K rate over the course of 2019, which is plenty high enough to target just six strikeouts in a game.

Make no mistake, Minnesota is a scary offense. Early on, they lead the league in wOBA, wRC+, OPS and ISO against RHP. They are still striking out at a 22.6% clip. That’s not egregious but there’s enough room for Bieber to hit his number even if he gives up a couple of runs.

Bet – Over 5.5

Record – 9-5

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29

It was another solid day for the article yesterday and we got close to our first clean sweep of the season. Being one Kyle Gibson strikeout away from the sweep is frustrating, but we’ll take a winning night every time. It figures that it was an evening that I went light on, but it’s better to go that route than go big and flop badly. We’re looking to keep on trucking tonight with our Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29 and hopefully we don’t have to hit too many unders tonight.

StriKe One – Frankie Montas, A’s

Montas draws a home matchup with the Rockies today and I’m loving the over on his number for quite a few reasons. Monkeyknifefight.com has him at 5.5 and this is a great spot to go for the over for Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29.

The Rockies on the road have always been a much less lethal offense, registering at 25.5% K rate to RHP last year. Their numbers also included a .666 OPS, .149 ISO and a .285 wOBA which are fairly dreadful. Montas has already flashed some upside in his first start, striking out five hitters in just four innings. He should be able to exceed the 81 pitches he threw in his first start and he had a 26.1% K rate in his partial 2019 season. I’m trusting Montas to be more effective this start and love hitting the over.

Bet – Over 5.5

StriKe Two – Max Scherzer, Nationals

At the risk of this blowing up in my face, I can’t figure out one good reason for Scherzer’s number to be so incredibly low on MKF and I’d be fairly surprised if other sports books had it like this. This is the most comfortable bet I have for Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29.

We’re talking about one of the absolute premier strikeout pitchers of the past eight seasons or so. Scherzer gave up some runs in his first start against the Yankees but he also mowed down 11 hitters in the process in just 5.1 IP. Of his 27 starts last season, he would have hit this prop in 20 of them. The Blue Jays were a top 10 strikeout team last year against RHP, finishing seventh-worst at a 25.2% clip. In the few games this year they have cut it down to 17.5% but we only need eight strikeouts from Mad Max. I’ll bet the over on that every single time.

Bet – Over 7.5

StriKe Three – Brandon Woodruff, Brewers

One of the themes to Three StriKes is likely going to be picking on my Pittsburgh Pirates. An early trend has their K rate jumping up to the current 23.7% from 18.8% last season. Woodruff is in a great spot at a reasonable number here.

Woodruff faced the Pirates four times last season and had two games of six strikeouts and a massive 10 K game, so the ceiling is there. He also struck out five Cubs in his season debut in five innings and 85 pitches, so getting close to 100 is well within reach. Woodruff utilized the fastball and changeup around 80% of the time in his first start and the Bucs finished 22nd and 21st against those pitches last year. With the bump in K’s for the Pirates, this is a good spot for the over. Even Josh Lindblom whiffed four in his first start back from Korea.

Bet – Over 5.5

Record – 7-4

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Three StriKes for Tuesday July 28

Monday night was kind of a nutty slate in MLB with two games being called due to COVID, one getting washed out and two delayed for lengthy stints. Fortunately we were able to keep our heads above water and go 2-1, only missing out on the Glasnow prop. If I have to lose, I’ll take it against that player.

I’ll be honest, if Monday wasn’t your cup of tea I’m not sure you’re going to be placing many bets tonight. Pitching is incredibly dicey yet again and the only stud is Walker Buehler who is likely to be limited. There’s some plays to be made for Three Strikes for Tuesday July 28 but it’s going to be a low volume day for me personally.

StriKe One – Tyler Mahle, Reds

Chasing under isn’t exactly something I want to make a habit of because it’s just a weird kind of sweat. Maybe it’s just me but it’s easier to root for overs. Anyways, Mahle has a 5.5 mark on Monkey Knife Fight and that just seems a hair too high for me.

Mahle made 25 starts last season and only exceeded this number in 10 of those starts, so not even half. His K rate is respectable at 21.9% for his career (and it did jump a touch to 23.2% in 2019) but this is a sizable number for him. Even if he goes six innings, he’d have to average a strikeout per inning and he’s yet to do that in his career.

The Cubs were an average K rate team last year and have fallen right about in the same range so far this season, at just 23.5%. Chicago was also top 12 against the fastball (56.7% of the 2019 arsenal for Mahle) and 13th against the curve (22%). Lastly, Mahle wouldn’t even be making this start if Anthony DeSclafani wasn’t on the IL. This is a nice setup for the under.

Bet – Under 5.5

StriKe Two – Kyle Wright, Braves

I guess I sort of just lied to you guys, because we’re about to hit another under. The second bet for Three StriKes for Tuesday July 28 is targeting Braves pitcher Kyle Wright who also sits at 5.5 K’s and I feel like that’s too high for the young man.

First off, it’s interesting to note that Wright does not have a single game of more than four strikeouts across his 25 innings in the bigs. Obviously, that is a painfully small sample size but it’s just a note. Next up is how the Braves have handled their starters so far this season. As Brian Tulloch mentioned in yesterday’s excellent Picks and Pivots, Braves starters have thrown 69, 67, 82 and 70 pitches so far. It would be a bit of an upset if Wright breaks that trend the first time through the rotation.

When we look at Wright in the majors so far, his K rate is just 19% and the ERA is pushing 8.00. The FIP and xFIP are 6.79 and 5.67 respectively, so it certainly points to him not finding his groove thus far. His K rate to LHH drops to 15.4% and the Rays threw five lefties yesterday. About the only slight positive for Wright is the Rays were 21st against the fastball and 14th against the slider in 2019. Those pitches made up about 70% of the pitches thrown by Wright in 2019. This is just not the matchup to chase an over and I feel relatively safe about the under.

Bet – Under 5.5

StriKe Three – Kyle Gibson, Rangers

Remember how I said it was going to be a light day from me? Well, strap in because we’re targeting Kyle Gibson in the Three StriKes for Tuesday July 28. His K prop is just 4.5 and it’s enticing enough to throw a few bucks on it with this mess of a pitching slate we have.

First, Gibson started 29 games last season and cleared this prop 19 times, which is a pretty solid rate. In 2019, the Diamondbacks were 23rd against the fastball which Gibson uses about half the time. Arizona did rank seventh against his 22% slider, but they were still in the negative value according to FanGraphs. Arizona has come out of the gate poorly against RHP on top of it, whiffing 26.6% of the time. Additionally, the .094 ISO and .271 wOBA are pretty terrible. This matchup sets up Gibson for success, but it’s a reach to call him trustworthy.

Bet – Over 4.5

Record – 5-3 (I’ll emphasize again that bankroll management is key. Go light tonight!)

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well! 

Sports are coming back & we want YOU on the @WinDailySports team! Get an All-Access pass including Articles, Cheat Sheets, Projection Models, & our Expert Chat. ONLY 23 CENTS for the first month! Click the link or use promo code: “23” at checkout! WinDailySports.com/23