It wasn’t the most banner night ever last night in part thanks to Ross Stripling. It was nice to see Zac Gallen continue to be the ace that he is and that saved us a little bit. We’re bringing Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.18 to you a little earlier today. A good chunk of props are already up and there’s an afternoon pitcher who is at a glorious number to try and hit.
There is never a sure thing in gambling but there are sometimes numbers that don’t make the most sense. Bundy’s K prop today is one of them to me.
I’m not sure I understand this one. Sure, San Francisco isn’t the biggest strikeout offense. They only sit at 21.8% to RHP and yes, Bundy is “worse” to LHH. The wOBA is .269 and the K rate is 21.6% and there could be up to six LHH facing him today. Even still, his four starts have generated seven, eight, 10 and 10 K’s. This is a great number and one I would play 100 times out of 100.
Bet – Over 5.5
This is another spot where the matchup isn’t glaring, but the number is plenty low enough to bring us in. It was between Montas and Yu Darvish but Darvish came in at 8.5 and I don’t want that number either way.
Montas is reportedly healthy after missing a couple days with some back issues. I’m not concerned myself because Oakland would not push him if he wasn’t ready to go. He brings an 11.6% swinging strike rate into this contest, which is a little tough. Arizona is under 20% in K rate as a team to RHH.
However, Montas throws the fastball 64% of the time. Arizona is dead last vs that pitch and Montas gets a 16% whiff rate on it. Montas might also have to deal with a LHH heavy lineup but the K rate is still at 22% to that side of the plate. Three of the D-Backs LHH are over 22% in their K rate, so I’m comfortable with this number for Montas. He’s only missed this number once out of his four starts on top of it.
Bet – Over 4.5
The Pittsburgh flow chart is in effect here in that there’s a talented pitcher on the hill, they stink and the prop is very attainable.
Carrasco has been a bit inconsistent but he’s had some tougher matchups. The Cubs and Twins are far superior lineups so there’s not any real reason to shy away here. The K rate so far is a career high 32.3% and we love to see that. His walks are up to almost 12% but Pittsburgh is dead last in walk rate to RHP, just like every other category. Carrasco should shove here and he’s passed this prop with ease in three of four starts.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 36-30
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
It was so close to being the perfect card last night. Both Shane Bieber and Kevin Gausman blew their props out of the water but Walker Buehler couldn’t quite come through. We will always take the positive night and it seems that the cover jinx is real, since nobody imploded last night. We’re back in action again for Three StriKes for Sunday 8.16 and there’s some solid numbers for such a mediocre pitching slate. Don’t forget to join DK SportsBook if your state allows it!
The number for Lindblom comes in as a heavy favorite but I really don’t mind. He’s yet to not hit that number in three starts and has faced some tough offenses in two of three games.
Typically we like to try and combine a good strikeout spot and run prevention spot. Obviously, our pitchers can’t hit strikeout props if they give up a bunch of runs. The Cubs have a good offense to be sure (top 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA) but they are also sixth in K rate to RHP.
After spending two seasons in the KBO, Lindblom has his strikeout stuff working in a big way. Five projected Cubs hitters have K rates over 22% in this spot. Lindblom likely isn’t going to get by unscathed in this spot but the K upside is too great to not like this small of a number.
Bet – Over 4.5
Mad Max has bit me twice in a row but once was injury and once was just one K short. He owes us and I think he’s coming through today.
There’s little nitpicks for Scherzer but nothing major. The Orioles can put five lefties out there today, which was a concern with the Mets matchup last time. Scherzer’s K rate to LHH is “just” 26.2% compared to 43.9% to RHH. Keep in mind, two of LHH are Chris Davis and Chance Sisco. Both those hitters are over 30% in K rate on their own.
The walk rate for Scherzer will come down and I think that’s just an anomaly through 19.2 IP. If he was coming to the end of the road, there would be other warning signs. For now, I expect Scherzer to be his usually self and will attack the 7.5. It’s an added bonus we get an underdog price.
Bet – Over 7.5
I had thoughts of going with Lance McCullers against the Mariners but he has been volatile in the early going. Hernandez doesn’t have a track record per se, but I prefer this number even at worse odds.
Hernandez has hit five strikeouts in both starts so far and boasts a 10.1% swinging strike rate. While the Braves do rate well against his pitch types, we can’t ignore their lineup. It’s missing both Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. The current lineup has four hitters with a K rate over 24% and two over 30%.
Hernandez has only faced 17 lefties on the year but he has a 35.3% K rate to that side of the plate. Even with some regression, that’s still nice against a lineup that has four lefties. The Braves are a weaker lineup than their reputation and this is a solid number to hit.
Bet – Over 4.5
Record – 32-28
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
Faithful readers, we have a problem. I didn’t notice it until now but we’ve had a consistent theme lately in our run of some bad luck. We have a cover jinx, just like the Madden franchise. The last six cover pitchers have failed to hit their props, some in spectacularly bad fashion. We’re switching it up today and using just a generic photo. Three StriKes for Saturday 8.15 is a little bit tough but I really do like some of the numbers we have on this slate.
This one is the “easiest” call of the slate as Bieber has yet to fall under his K prop in four starts. He also gets the same cupcake matchup that Civale couldn’t handle last night.
Bieber has hit at least eight strikeouts in every start and has double digits in two of the four. The 42.6% K rate is the third best among starters and is eye-popping to say the least. When he gets the highest K rate team in the league, this is an easy call as far as wanting the over.
Bet – Over 7.5
Bieber is about the only one I absolutely love, so manage the bankroll accordingly tonight. It’s a tough card but Gausman’s number at an underdog price is one I want to chase.
For one, Gausman has surpassed this number in his last three starts. That’s nice to hear, but they came in Coors Field, against the Dodgers and vs the Padres. Racking up 21 K’s over 16 innings in those games is impressive.
Also impressive? His 13.6% swinging strike rate. He’s nastier to RHH which is a good thing against the A’s, who are already down Ramon Laureano to suspension. Oakland is 10th in the league in K rate to RHP with Laureano in the lineup. Gausman is prone to blowups but this spot sets up pretty nicely for him.
Bet – Over 5.5
This isn’t the best spot for strikeouts but we’re betting on a low number with a talented pitcher.
The Angels are over 21% for their K rate to RHP, which isn’t something that I’m normally looking to attack. Buehler himself has only hit is strikeouts once in three starts. However, I like the fact that his pitch count continues to rise and we should get over 90 pitches tonight.
Last season saw Buehler rack up a 29.2% K rate over 182.1 IP. Although that’s dropped to 20.7% so far, we all know that’s not going to stick and was due to his late start in camp. Even in a tougher K matchup, you don’t get this number for a bona fide ace every day.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 30-27
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
Other than an epic Anthony DeSclafani implosion, it was a solid 2-1 day for Three StriKes. I’m mad at myself because me decision was DeSclafani vs Yu Darvish for the Cubs. I’m not always a big fan of betting on eight strikeouts so I talked myself out of Darvish to see him carve up the Brewers. Such is gambling life but we press forward. Three StriKes for Friday 8.14 may well be the most loaded pitching slate on the season and I’m pretty excited to break it all down!
When you have a pitcher with a K rate over 30% taking on the team with the highest K rate to RHP, you almost have to be interested. Civale’s number is certainly attainable here. Don’t forget to join DK Sportsbook if your state allows it!
Civale has two games of nine strikeouts already against much more talented opponents. He strikes out both sides of the plate at least 30% of the time so far. Detroit’s projected lineup has five LHH in it and that’s an advantage for Civale. He’s holding LHH to a .197 wOBA and .182 average, so the run prevention spot is great on paper.
If we think Civale can go six innings, hat’s only one strikeout per inning and he sits at a 10.89 K/9. Surprisingly, the Tigers are top 10 against the fastball so far but Civale throws it just 31% of the time. He uses a cutter basically the same amount and Detroit ranks bottom-five vs that pitch.
Bet – Over 5.5
I’ve got a bit of a concern that Lamet is facing Arizona yet again, but he is so talented that I find myself going after this number for him.
He’s hit this number in three of his four starts. It’s hardly a criticism in the one he didn’t since he was facing the Dodgers. In his previous two games vs the D-Backs, he’s pitched 11.2 innings and has stuck out 19! They haven’t come close to figuring him out yet so the 6.5 is still well within reach.
The pitch data is a bit odd. With Lamet being just a fastball/slider guy, the D-Backs are at completely opposite ends of the spectrum. They are dead last vs the fastball but best vs the slider. I’ll side with the talent of Lamet and the 15.1% swinging strike rate. For reference, that’s sixth in MLB so far among pitchers with 20 IP or more.
Bet – Over 6.5
This spot was reserved for Jacob deGrom but he was scratched as I was writing him up. No matter, because we have plenty of options tonight and Montas is a worthy candidate.
I went into deeper detail in Picks and Pivots today, but Montas has seen his splitter not be as effective. That helps explain his slightly lower K rate just a bit but he also still has a swinging strike rate of over 11%. He’s yet to give up a home run and the K rate of 24.2% is nothing to sneer at.
The Giants are up over 22% as a team for their K rate this season. Even with the Giants having more LHH than RHH in their lineup, Montas is still at a 22% K rate to that side of the plate. Every one of those lefties has a K rate over 20% and Montas was yet to hit his full potential this season.
Bet – Over 5.5
I said Three StriKes for Friday 8.14 was loaded, so why not give a bonus pick?
Well, that was fun. Woodruff now just takes the place of Montas for StriKe Three since Montas was scratched.
The righty for the Brewers has a 31.3% K rate on the season so far with a 13% swinging strike rate. The Chicago Cubs do boast a dangerous offense with a .342 wOBA (fifth) and .209 ISO (seventh). However, Woodruff already has a start of five strikeouts vs these Cubs this year. Considering he only threw 85 pitches, I’m confident in the extra strikeout tonight.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record 29-25
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
Once again, the dreaded “one K away” scenario reared its ugly head as Kenta Maeda finished just one away from his prop. Zack Greinke was our star as he didn’t make us sweat. I guess Nate Pearson didn’t give us a sweat either but for all the wrong reasons. Today is a much shorter slate than normal but we still have some solid options to pick from on Three StriKes for Thursday 8.13.
The right for the Reds only has two starts so there’s not a lot to hang our hats on for this year but his number is low and a good sized favorite in Vegas.
The Pirates have brought the K rate down a little bit to about 24% but this is still just a dreadful offense overall. DeSclafani uses his fastball about 53% of the time and the Bucks rank in the bottom five against said pitch. Even the 28% slider from DeSclafani looks like a decent matchup because Pittsburgh is totally neutral against it.
The pitch count has gone from 64 to 88 in his last start so we should feel good about that end of things. Five of the nine hitters in today’s projected lineup have K rate’s above 20% and two more are at 18%. DeSclafani can hit five here.
Bet – Over 4.5
Alright, Mr. Glasnow. This is your third appearance in Three StriKes and you’re 0-2 thus far. I’d say you owe us one and I really like the number that he’s set at today.
Glasnow has had a rough start to the season from an ERA standpoint at 5.56. However, the xFIP is 3.50 and suggests he’s not been as bad as some may think. The fly ball rate has spiked by 10% and that’s resulted in a couple home runs. Once he gets that and his 15.7% walk rate in line, things will come together quickly. The 37.3% K rate is what we’re after here.
So far, the fastball has been the pitch of concern for Glasnow. It’s given up all three bombs for a .281 ISO after just five and a .133 mark last year. With the Red Sox being in the bottom half of the league vs the fastball, this a good spot for it to get right. The velocity has been there so it’s just a matter of control. Boston is also the sixth-highest K rate team to RHP at 26.3%.
Bet – Over 5.5
We talked yesterday about incorporating the under bet a little bit more and I think we have a good spot to do it with Arrieta today.
Baltimore is not a major strikeout offense so far, whiffing only 20.3% vs RHP. That ranks as the third-best mark in the league and is pretty impressive. Arrieta hasn’t had a K rate over 20% since 2017 so his early mark of 24.4% doesn’t seem very sustainable.
When you look at the splits, I don’t see any reason to believe he can continue a 32.1% K rate to RHH. The Orioles should roll out at least four lefties today, so that’s a mark against Arrieta. Three of the righties have a K rate under 17% since the start of 2019. Even with gaping hole Chris Davis in the lineup, I’m betting against Arrieta hitting five or more today.
Bet – Under 4.5
Record – 27-24
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
It’s really starting to feel like Jobu owes us some good luck after the past few days. I’ve lost track of how many plays have missed by one strikeout and understand some frustration. Believe me, I feel it too. Mad Max missed his prop by just one and Dylan Bundy cruised because apparently he’s Cy Young now. We don’t have traditonal aces today but there’s still good options. Let’s dig into Three StriKes for Wednesday 8.12 and get after a 3-0 day!
*Note* I think one tweak we might make to Three StriKes as a general statement is to look at unders a bit more. For instance, Luis Castillo was at 7.5 yesterday and I felt strongly he wouldn’t get to eight. I let my general dislike for betting an under get in the way. That will be a bigger part of the article moving forward, even if it’s not today.
I’ve been fairly critical of Greinke so far this season as his velocity is terrible compared to normal. However, his number is very low and the Giants represent an opportunity.
The -165 number isn’t super exciting but it certainly tells you that Vegas likes his odds to be over. Since I always have some type of parlay going, I’m fine using this heavy favorite and Greinke did hit five last time out vs the A’s. The projected lineup for the Giants features seven hitters with K rates above 21% since the start of 2019, a big check mark for Greinke.
The crafty veteran for the Astros has leaned on a fastball/changeup 68% of the time so far. The Giants are 12th vs the changeup, but they rank 28th vs the fastball and that is 46% of Greinke’s pitches so far. Five is a low number for him, velocity concerns or not.
Bet – Over 4.5
We’re going with the Blue Jays rookie here and it just so happens that his number is the exact same as Greinke, for both strikeouts and odds.
He’s started two game so far and has struck out five in each while pitching five innings. He’s been heavy on a fastball/slider mix and while the Marlins are top 14 vs the fastball, they are bottom half vs the slider.
Pearson has gotten a whiff 19% of the time on his slider so far and that’s been his strikeout pitch. Six of the projected Marlins hitters have K rates over 21% since last year and the number is favorable for Pearson. He has yet to hit 80 pitches but there’s little reason to think he can’t if things are going well. We’re going with the favorite.
Bet – Over 4.5
We’ve been picking on the Brewers in the early going and I’m still happy to do so in this spot, as Maeda has been strong to start the season.
With eight of the nine projected hitters sitting over 20% in K rate since last year, Maeda has a very strong chance to go over 5.5 K’s here. Yet again, he’s a heavy favorite that I don’t mind targeting.
Milwaukee’s offense is still in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so this is a good run prevention spot. The one pick with Maeda is the pitch count hasn’t hit 90 yet. While I do hope he can get closer to 100, there’s not a strong limit on him and with Milwaukee’s offense, this is a good bet to take.
Over – 5.5
Record – 26-22
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
We took a day off because the props were just not that great yesterday. It was proven right because the plays I was considering would have all lost. Sometimes, the best bet is the one you don’t make so it was a good day to skip. Today’s props are also a little tough but it’s absolutely better than Monday. We just missed a perfect Sunday by a combine two K’s. The process is working so let’s get into Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.11!
The last time we made this play, Scherzer left after one whole inning and burned us quite badly. Scherzer says he’s healthy now so I’m buying back in and the prop is too low for Mad Max. Don’t forger to come on over to DK Sportsbook and gamble along with us!
Anytime I can get Scherzer under eight strikeouts, I’m going to take that risk. It’s not exactly the dream matchup on paper, as the Mets can put 4-5 LHH in the lineup. Scherzer’s K rate is under 25% to that side of the plate but three Mets LHH have a K rate over 23% to RHP.
In his first two full starts, Mad Max hit double digit strikeouts in both. He also threw 99 and 112 pitches so there’s zero concern about pitch count, which is huge in today’s game. Bet on the talent before anything else.
Bet – Over 7.5
I’m as surprised as you that I’m writing up Dylan Bundy to strike out seven hitters tonight but I really believe in what he’s doing right now. I think he’s a really solid play in Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.11.
In his three starts, Bundy has exceeded this number in all three and is coming off a double digit performance against Seattle. Like Scherzer, pitch count looks to not be an issue. He’s thrown 90, 90 and 107 pitches so far.
Bundy has been singularly dominant against RHH with a massive 45.7% K rate and a 0.51 FIP. That’s especially important because the majority of the Oakland hitters that we fear are RHH. Matt Olson is about the lone exception. Bundy has used his slider more and is getting a 23.8% whiff rate on it. Oakland rates 18th vs the slider and I’m rolling with Bundy tonight.
Bet – Over 6.5
I had thoughts about Luis Castillo against the Royals but 7.5 K’s is a little too high for my taste. I’ll try to attack the much lower number with Alex Cobb in Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.11.
Now this pick might look a little tough if you view the Phillies K rate to RHP so far. They have the lowest rate in the league at just 16.1% but they also have the second-fewest plate appearances against RHP. That’s what happens when most of your games get postponed. I don’t think that number will be accurate as the year goes on.
No less than six of the projected Phillies have a K rate to RHP over 20% since the start of 2019. Cobb has been in the mid-eighties for his pitch count but we’re only looking for four strikeouts. Cobb’s 24.2% K rate so far this year should carry him, as should his 28.6% K rate to RHH.
Bet – Over 3.5
Record – 25-20
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
Last night was a real heartbreaker at the end. We nailed Zach Plesac and things were looking good for Chris Paddack and Clayton Kershaw, at least for out props. Right as Paddack hit his mark, Kershaw got (justifiably) yanked one strikeout short. We’re still having a pretty good overall season so far but the close calls are annoying. We dive in today looking for the perfect day and we have a plethora of ace quality arms for Three StriKes for Sunday 8.9!
We do have some bigger name aces but with big names come big numbers. I’m starting here with Woodruff at a number that is way too low for a pitcher of his caliber. Don’t forget to get in on the action over at DraftKings Sportsbook!
The righty for the Brewers has been dominating lineups his first three starts with a 31.8% K rate and a 61% ground ball rate. It’s little wonder that his ERA sits at 2.08 and the xFIP is only 2.39. Woodruff has at least six strikeouts in two of his three starts so far this season.
The Reds are quite good against the fastball this season at sixth overall in the league, which is a small concern. They also aren’t the biggest strikeout team but are at 23.5% which is usable in this spot. If the number was any bigger, I would pass but I feel comfortable with six strikeouts.
Bet – Over 5.5
Lamet has already faced the D-Backs once and had his best strikeout game of the season with eight. I think this is a good spot to repeat that and his number as a slight underdog really looks great for Three StriKes for Sunday 8.9.
Just looking at his K rate of 25% might make it seem like he’s not a great bet to hit seven strikeouts. However, that rate is dragged down by his last start against the Dodgers. He pitched a strong 5.2 innings against one of the best lineups in the game but only struck out two hitters. Chris Paddack whiffed six last night and Lamet is the better strikeout artist. Arizona is dead last against the fastball and under 1.0 on FanGraphs rating agains the slider. These are the two pitches Lamet throws and I love he’s the underdog here.
Bet – Over 6.5
Yes, we do have aces on this slate but on the other side of this game, Jacob deGrom is at 8.5. That’s a big number even for deGrom so I’m sticking with Lopez in Three StriKes for Sunday 8.9.
The young righty was fantastic in his first start of the year with seven strikeouts on just 61 pitches. He should be able to get up into the 80 range in this one and the Mets are closing in on a 24% K rate on the season. Lopez is kind of a difficult play to back with stats because 2019 was such a rough year for him. Still, he is very talented and has always had the ability to figure things out. This number at an underdog price is very appealing and I’m in for five.
Bet – Over 4.5
Record – 24-18
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
Friday was another very solid night for us, going 2-1. Trevor Bauer destroyed his prop while Aaron Civale gave us a bit of a sweat. Yusei Kikuchi was a big letdown, but a good lesson as well. Pitchers can show us something new and improved through 2-3 starts. That doesn’t mean they are always going to be a way different pitcher all of the sudden. It was a good gamble to take but remember the sample size we’re dealing with. Without further ado, let’s figure out who we like for Three StriKes for Saturday 8.8.
Today you’ll see props from DraftKings SportsBook because they have a whole bunch up early. Make sure to hit that link if you’re playing there today! We’re heading right back to the well in the Cleveland/Chicago matchup. There are precious few aces for Three StriKes for Saturday 8.8 and Plesac has a number that just is too small yet again.
Plesac gets the same number that Civale did yesterday and Plesac has actually been the better strikeout pitcher this year. He’s jumped his K rate from 18.5% last year to 32.1% this season. That might seem odd, but there’s a couple reason to believe in that change remaining mostly true through 2020.
First, he was a strikeout pitcher in the minors. His last two seasons produced a 24.8% K rate and a 30.7% mark. Last year’s 18.5% could be chalked up to learning on the job in the majors. Secondly, he’s using his secondary pitches more. He’s getting a whiff on his change and slider about 25% of the time on average. Last season it average about 15% of the time so you can see it’s a dramatic shift. It’s a small fear that the White Sox are the best slider team in baseball right now, but they are middle of the road vs the change. I feel good about Plesac reaching five K’s with Chicago’s 24.8% K rate.
Bet – Over 4.5
I mentioned we don’t have a ton of aces so when we get a pitcher that’s at least close to it, we should try and pounce. Paddack doesn’t have the best number I’ve ever seen but it’s an underdog so I’m more interested.
Paddack really has a great matchup via the pitch data and that’s what we’re going to hope carries him. Arizona is bottom five vs the fastball/change combo that Paddack favors heavily.
This isn’t to say the matchup is perfect. Arizona is the second-best strikeout team in the majors to RHP. They are under 19% so far which is a very low number. Paddack hasn’t quite found his groove yet with just a 23.4% K rate after nearly 27% last season. This is very much a case of betting on the talent. I don’t believe Paddack stays at a 23.4% K rate. He hasn’t even thrown over 90 pitches yet but he should be more than fine to go over that. Last season, Paddack hit six strikeouts in 15 of 26 starts and I’ll happily chase the underdog.
This is the one ace we do have on the slate and even at the biggest number, Kershaw is also an underdog.
He does only have one start under his belt but he dazzled with six strikeouts on just 81 pitches. Kershaw was throwing over 90 before he hit the IL so I think the pitch count aspect is there. Even last year when Kershaw was a bit more hittable than we’re accustomed to, he whiffed nearly 27% of the hitters he faced.
The pitch data is in Kershaw’s favor as well, with the Giants being near the bottom of the league against the fastball and very average vs the slider. Even though they strike out just 20% of the time against LHP, Kershaw is still a different animal. Let’s go after him while he’s healthy.
Bet – Over 6.5
Record – 22-17
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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