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MKF

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

We actually get to have a little bit of fun this week attacking overs. Going after the unders last week ended up being a pretty decent strategy and our ROI ended up being 50% if you played1 unit across the board. For whatever reason the Browns decided that they didn’t want to run the ball against one of the weakest run defenses in the league in a snowstorm with wind in excess of 35 MPH or else we would have hit our 5 player prop with a 20x payout. But such is life.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

I’m not one to take overs when it comes to Nick Foles but there are a couple of things that lead me to go that way today. First, all of the various sportsbook pages have his line set around 270 which tells me this is an error at 255.5. Next, the Titans are 6.5 point favorites so I expect the Bears to be throwing a lot in the second half. Finally, and it’s more of a psychological thing for me, Mitch Trubisky isn’t sitting on the bench with Nagy coaching waiting on to put him in if Foles throws a couple of early picks. A.J. Brown is pretty simple. The Bears play sides so I’m not worried about Fuller being matched up on him. He’ll be matched up against Jaylon Johnson or Buster Skrine which means wheel up on 64.5 receiving yards.

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

This seems like a mismatch both ways. With no Mark Ingram, a pass funnel defense, and the second highest expected total on the day 215.5 seems way too low. **Lamar Jackson** hasn’t been the best in terms of airing it out this season but John Harbaugh challenged Jackson in the media this week to tighten his game up and a expect him to respond. Phillip Rivers on the other hand has a noodle arm, against one of the best secondary’s in the league, with no T.Y. Hilton. 258.5 seems like a number he’s going to have a hard time reaching.

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

For some reason MKF doesn’t have a ton of pick 3 of 4 options and I wanted to give us something a little easier to go at Sunday so this rapidfire for 1.5x return is where we will target. I was interested to see two things when it comes to **Chase Daniels**. First, he has a career 68.3% completions percentage and second, his average pass depth is 6.9 yards per attempt. I’ll give you one guess as to what **T.J. Hockenson’s** average depth of target is? It’s 6.8 yards compared to Danny Amendola’s 10.6. So it looks like he slides right into Chase’s comfort zone and 68.5 bonus yards is too much against a Vikings team who will look to run the Lions into the ground tomorrow. **Justin Jefferson’s** explosive ability will likely be used during play action passing when the Vikings choose to air it on the rare occasion and when lined up against Jeff Okudah there will be a clear and obvious mismatch to exploit.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

**Tom Brady** with a full allotment of weapons to include a motivated Antonio Brown is an incredibly dangerous thing, add the fact that they looked like crap against the Giants and I have an expectation that they are going to try and run the score up to prove a point so I’m expecting Touchdown Tommy to put up a massive number tomorrow. **Drew Brees** I have a legitimate concern over. Reports came out this week that he has a problem in his throwing shoulder. Combine that with his struggles pushing the ball down field when he is healthy and I see one of two scenarios tommorrow. The Saints lean hard on Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara or, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, they use Bree’s ailing shoulder as a reason to roll out Jameis Winston to see if they can get some kind of vertical threat in their passing game. I love everything that Drew Brees has done for the NFL but father time is catching up to him in a hurry and we may be reaching a point where the catastrophic shoulder injury that ended up bringing Brees to New Orleans in the first place starts to cause lingering issues towards the tail end of his career.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.31

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

*****The single most important thing that we need to be considering today is the weather impact on prop plays this week. Snow, wind, rain, and cold weather will lead me towards unders in a big way when it comes to receivers and quarterbacks.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays

More or Less New England at Buffalo: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

Hammering unders with quarterbacks is going to be my go to today, even more so when they are either inaccurate or if they have below average arm strength. Both **Josh Allen** and **Cam Newton** have strong arms but they both have flaws in regards to accuracy and decision making. With wind above 20 MPH and rain I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Cam didn’t break 100 yards today. He has always had a bad habit of throwing off of his back foot causing his passes to sail. He also lets his emotions get into his head when he is in a rut and compounds his own issues and to this point he has only ONE game with more than 162 passing yards. I could justify the over for Allen but I honestly don’t think he’ll ever need to. I think Buffalo will control this game on the ground all day.

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

Two teams that prefer to run the ball with QB’s who aren’t known for having strong arms in snow/rain with wind well over 30 miles an hour. I’m not going to get cute with this one either. Jon Gruden loves the idea on letting **Derek Carr** hand it off 45 times. At most we’ll see small dump offs and screen passes and now **Baker Mayfield** is without Odell Beckham and we all know he has issues with his decision making. He also has small hands for a QB (9.25 in). Between the two teams I don’t think we exceed 30 total passes.

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 20x Payout (High Risk) (5 of 5)

I touched on it above, we are not going to get much if anything thru the air. I kind of like **Darren Waller** but I really just don’t see enough volume to trust any pass catchers, he may catch a touchdown at the goal line but I don’t see much more than that happening. For obvious reasons **Kareem Hunt** is the only over play that I like. Vegas is horrid against the run and he’s staring down the barrel of 30 touches come kickoff.

More or Less New Orleans at Chicago: 3x Payout

I know I’m being boring and I don’t care. The two weakest arms in the NFL. On the best of days **Drew Brees** and **Nick Foles** struggle getting the ball outside of the hashes or anything down the field with any kind of velocity. Now give me 25 MPH sustained wind and two reasonably solid defenses and I’m sold. I love the idea of using Latavius Murray, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, and if you’re really crazy in a large field GPP and you’re max entering Cordarrelle Patterson might be a crazy wide receiver addition with extra running back volume mixed in. It’s crazy, just something that popped into my head.

More or Less San Francisco at Seattle: 3.5x Payout

Alright, we’ll have some fun at least with one of them. We all love to play overs so lets do that with **Russell Wilson** and **Jimmy Garoppolo**. Wilson as close to a lock for 300 yards+ as you can possibly get with the only two being a horrible weather game against Minnesota and against the Patriots back when they were actually playing decent football and even then it was 288 yards. Jimmy Grapes has played like doodoo but Seattle will cure any quarterback’s offensive woes. Cam Newton 397 yards, Dak Prescott 461 yards, Ryan Fitzpatrick 315 yards, Matt Ryan 434 yards, Kyler Murray 360 yards. Nuff Said, have fun.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.31. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

My plays on MKF went off the board very quickly this week so I’m following up with a second set of NFL plays for you to dig into for our Sunday Slate. Hop on them quick, there is no guarantee they will be available for long! I’m going to be very quick in my explanations in order to get them out faster to give more time to put plays in. I’m attacking the same games so see my previous article for an longer explanation.

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I will give you all a higher risk play but it is purely optional and not intended for anything but a little riskier action if that happens to be your thing.

We have some crazy shootout potential this week so for better or worse we are going to have a bunch of overs today with seven games sitting at 50 or over for implied team totals and the overs have been successful in over 60 percent of NFL games to this point which is a pretty rare number to hit in either direction when it comes to sports betting.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

My last play was essentially the same but they swapped Deshaun Watson with Aaron Rodgers so there was no need to change the sub-text. Here it is quite simple I think Watson through likely playing from behind for a portion of the game I give the passing yard edge to Watson and while I don’t like David Johnson in a vacuum I do think Aaron Jones will be largely held out today with Lafluer opting to use much more Jamal Williams and AJ Dillon.

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout): This play hasn’t changed

I don’t see this one staying up for long, as of this point the rushing prop for **Kenyan Drake** is 58.5 and 60.5 respectively on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook so someone’s number is off a bit and from the looks of things around the various sites it looks like it’s this 65.5 number. Drake has looked pretty rough all season and I’m willing to bet that last week against Dallas isn’t going to repeat this week. We all know that Pete Carol won’t abandon the run but the same thing can’t be said about Cliff Kingsbury, especially when they are any sort of catch up. Against Carolina where they went down early Drake only got 13 carries for 35 yards. While I don’t see them getting down that badly anything over a touchdown and It will be all air raid from that point. As far as **Tyler Lockett** goes there is no way I’m not taking the over 5.5 catches when Seattle has an implied team total of 29.5. I personally don’t think the 55.5 total is high enough for this one.

Rapidfire 3 of 3: (6x Payout)(Higher Risk)

You mean to tell me I get bonus points for Seattle offensive players?!?!?!? Thank you MKF. **Chris Carson** is far and away the better back in pretty much every metric and would still take Carson if Drake was the one with the bonus points. While **DeAndre Hopkins** is the best wide receiver in the NFL right now **DK Metcalf** is not far behind in year two and Hopkins is still a little dinged up and once again Seattle is getting bonus points. **Kyler Murray** while being a fantasy stud he has only exceeded 300 yards once with much of his production coming on the ground. While I do think he gets close to that mark out of necessity tomorrow **Russell Wilson** is the frontrunner for MVP on the only undefeated team in the NFL while throwing for over 300 yards in 3 of 5 games and one of those games was in horrible wind/rain conditions and the other was against a pretty good Patriots defense.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe