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Minnesota Twins

DFS Hitting Stacks for 5/22 – Ride with Rangers

Marshall Rosen 5 years ago

written by Marshall Rosen

Here are thetop teams to stack for MLB’s May 22^nd action:

Seattle Mariners

The Texas Rangers’ Adrian Sampson is the perfect stacking target on Wednesday as he is due to come in after Jesse Chavez, who only helps make this stack formidable. Sampson has a 4.79 ERA this season as well as a 5.18 SIERA. Sampson also is getting hit extremely hard, as he has a 47.2% hard contact rate in 2019. The Seattle offense will take advantage of these opportunities, as the Mariners have a team ISO of .229 against righties this season.

As you construct your Seattle stacks, look to begin with the right-handed bats of the Mariners. Sampson has allowed a .343 batting average, .428 wOBA and 2.22 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. Edwin Encarnacion (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,300), Mitch Haniger (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,300), Ryan Healy (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $3,700) and Tim Beckham (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,000), are all right-handed batters that have excelled against right-handed pitching this season. Each of these hitters have ISO’s over .200 in those type of matchups.

And while heis not a right-handed batter, Daniel Vogelbach (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,500),has to make your list of Mariners. He has a .410 ISO and .458 wOBA againstrighties in 2019, while Sampson is allowing a 50.9% hard contact rate tolefties this season.

Texas Rangers

Seattle will be starting Marco Gonzales. The southpaw has a put up decent numbers in 2019 but has a 4.99 xFIP, meaning regression is on its way. Look for that move back to mean to begin tonight. The Rangers put up big power numbers against left-handed pitching.

Piece thatRangers’ stack together with the left mashers: Joey Gallo (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings:$5,600), Nomar Mazara (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,100), Hunter Pence (FanDuel:$3,900 DraftKings: $5,400) and Danny Santana (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $5,200).

New York Yankees

Whenever the Baltimore Orioles push Dan Straily to the bump, we are going to be interested in attacking the right-hander with stacks. And today is no different, especially with the Yankees being Straily’s opponent. The New York offense has produced the sixth-highest ISO against right-handed pitching this season. That should play well against Straily, who owns a 6.42 SIERA, 7.24xFIP and 2.93 HR/9 this season, all of which are the highest of any pitcher scheduled to start today.

When building your Pinstripes stack, feel free to use any and all Yankees regardless of which side of the plate they bat from. Straily has been bad against both righties and lefties this season. Against left-handed batters he is allowing a .384 wOBA and a 2.3 HR/9. And versus righties he is allowing a .394/.419/.732 slash line.

Just be sure not to leave Gary Sanchez (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings:$5,500) off any of your Yankee builds. The New York slugger is raking againstrighties this season. He owns a .381 ISO and a .413 wOBA against them. You are probablygoing to want some combination of Gleyber Torres (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,300),Brett Gardner (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $4,800), Luke Voit (FanDuel: $4,200 DraftKings:$5,300) and Clint Frazier (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $4,300) as well. Each ofthose four Yankees’ hitters have .200-plus ISOs against right-handed pitchingin 2019.

Houston Astros

The Astroshave crushed right-handed pitching all season long. They have a .220 ISO, .355wOBA and a 127 wRC+ against them. With the White Sox starting Ivan Nova in thisone, you have to believe they keep smashing, so load up on the Astros.

As you loadup on them, feel free to picks batters from either side of the plate. Nova isallowing a .435 wOBA to lefties and a .365 wOBA to righties in 2019.

The Astros’stack should begin with the usual suspects. Alex Bregman (FanDuel: $4,300DraftKings: $5,500), George Springer (FanDuel: $4,500 DraftKings: $5,900) if heis in the lineup and Michael Brantley (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,200). Each of these three sluggers have an OPSgreater than 1.010 against right-handed pitching.

You willalso want to target Robinson Chirinos (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $4,400),Jake Marisnick (FanDuel: $2,400 DraftKings: $4,900), Carlos Correa (FanDuel: $4,100DraftKings: $5,200) and Aledmys Diaz (FanDuel: $3,300 DraftKings: $4,500).These four Astros all have ISOs greater than .200 against righties in 2019.

Minnesota Twins

The Twinshave been red hot over the last week. In the last seven days the Minnesotaoffense has a .307 batting average and a .230 team ISO. With the Twins facing theAngels’ Matt Harvey tonight, there is no reason to believe the Twins’ bats cooltonight.

Harvey ownsa 5.07 SIERA and has a below league average 17% K rate. You want to attack theAngels’ starter with left-handed bats. Harvey is allowing a .395 wOBA, 1.89HR/9 and a 55.9% hard contact versus lefty batters in 2019.

So, as youbuild your Twins’ stack you are looking at guys like Jason Castro (FanDuel: $3,200DraftKings: $4,100), Jorge Polanco (FanDuel: $4,200 DraftKings: $4,700), MaxKepler (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,100) and Eddie Rosario (FanDuel: $4,200 DraftKings:$4,600). The Twinkies’ lefty foursome all have ISOs of at least .243 against right-handedpitching this season.

Good luckand happy stacking!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

A Through Z 2019 MLB Season Preview

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

A Through Z 2019 MLB Season Preview – Written by Adam Zibuda

The 2019 MLB season has technically already started, with two games between the Mariners and Athletics taking place in Japan, where the Mariners got their season started off to a nice undefeated 2-0. Opening day however, is now just under a week away and we will see the first pitch thrown on the mainland on Thursday March 28th. To say that the MLB DFS industry is buzzing would be an understatement as the sites are gearing up to one of the biggest MLB seasons ever due to the legalization of sports betting taking place across the states.

There has been no shortage of massive free agent contracts this MLB offseason, with Mike Trout taking the cake with his absurd $430M deal for 12 years with the Angels. Bryce Harper joined in on the fun as well, signing with the Phillies for a lengthy 13-year deal worth $330M. Marwin Gonzalez also signed with the Minnesota Twins for 2 years and $21M while Manny Machado joined the elite contract ranks with his 10 year $300M signing, albeit with the lowly Padres who do not project to be much better in 2019.

The Boston Red Sox are bringing back most of their roster from their 2018 championship run, and should be contenders when October rolls around. The Atlanta Braves are a young and talented team, but might not have enough of a well-rounded roster to really compete when it counts. A couple of other teams that I am excited to watch in 2019 are the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Astros have the bats and the pitching to get it done, which is tough to do in MLB today as plenty of teams have secured the bats but really lack the arm talent to compete down the stretch. The Astros will almost definitely be playing in October this season. The Dodgers got shown up by Boston in the World Series last year, but they will come back hungry this season and look to return to baseball’s biggest stage. The Brewers do not get nearly the press and attention as the Sox, Astros, and Dodgers, but they are a sneaky team that has some serious potential this year. They have depth at nearly every position, along with the talent to potentially dominate their NL Central opponents.

With quite the eventful offseason, the 2019 MLB season is shaping up to live up to all of the hype, and the DFS industry will flourish right alongside.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

New Faces in New Places

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

New Faces in New Places: Bryce Harper, PHI (OF): Harper was obviously the biggest move in the offseason, as he signed a 13-year $330-million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. While many believe that Citizens Bank Park is more hitter-friendly than National’s Park, the numbers say otherwise. In fact, Nationals Park actually ranked third in total runs last season while Citizens Bank sat 13th in scoring. They were both fantastic parks for home runs though, with Washington sitting fifth in total homers while Philly sat in fourth. That means that this is a rather neutral move for Harper and that makes it tough to know what you’re going to get. The reason for that is Harper’s volatility. In fact, his career-best marks are a .330 average and 42 home runs while his career-lows are 13 homers and a .243 average. His numbers last year were actually somewhere right in the middle, as he collected 34 home runs to go along with a disappointing .249 average. All this makes Harper a risky bet in fantasy but he has the upside to be the best player in baseball if it’s all clicking. Manny Machado, SD (SS/3B): Machado was the second-biggest move in the offseason, as he took his talents to the beautiful city of San Diego. While he definitely moved to a tougher park, it really shouldn’t alter his value much. In fact, if you track all of his homers, only a few of them wouldn’t have gotten out at Petco Park. This isn’t the pitcher’s haven it once was either, with Petco Park ranking 13th in runs, 16th in homers and ninth in total hits last season. This is a guy who has at least 24 home runs and 86 RBI in four-straight seasons and it seems likely that he’ll land somewhere around 30 homers and 100 RBI in what should be another great season. Jean Segura, PHI (SS): Segura has moved around a lot recently and it’s hard to understand why. The versatile shortstop has played in Milwaukee, Seattle and Arizona in the last four years and will now suit up for the Philadelphia Phillies. This might actually be the best lineup he’s hit in and one has to wonder where he’ll hit in the batting order. That could be a huge part of his value, as he could be one of the best shortstops in the league if he leads-off or bats second in this much-improved lineup. What really makes Segura valuable is his speed-average combo. Not only does he have at least 20 steals in six-straight seasons, but he’s also hit at least .294 in four of those years. The only times he didn’t approach a .300 average is when he was dealing with the death of his son. It’s not just the speed-average combo either, as Segura is averaging 14 home runs per year across his last three seasons. Those are numbers you don’t see from many shortstops and he could be a great buy in fantasy at an affordable price. Robinson Cano, NYM (1B/2B): Cano is back in The Big Apple but he’s suiting up for the Mets this time. After a disappointing stretch in Seattle, New York decided to swallow up the majority of his monster contract and gamble on a late-career resurgence. His spring training numbers indicate he’s ready to do just that, with Cano collecting a .475 average and 1.212 OPS in 40 spring training at-bats. The demise of Cano is slightly overexaggerated too. Not only has Cano reached at least a .271 average in all 14 seasons he’s played, but he’s also posted an OPS of .778 or higher in all but one season. While his power numbers definitely dropped off with the Mariners, Cano is still a great bet to accrue a .280 average and 20-25 home runs. With all that said, Cano moves from a tough ballpark to an absolute desert. In fact, Citi Field was the lowest-scoring ballpark in the majors last season. Daniel Murphy, COL (1B/2B): Murphy probably saw the biggest increase in value with this move to Colorado. The reason for that is his absurd hitting profile. In fact, Murphy owns a .320 career BABIP and a 6.3 percent K-rate. That simply means he has some of the best bat-on-ball skills of any player in the majors and that becomes particularly intriguing in this ballpark. Not only does Coors Field post a BABIP north of .300 nearly every single year, it has led the majors in total hits in 14-straight seasons. Hitting in this ballpark is a godsend for a player like Murphy, who has ranked top-10 in total hits in four of the last five seasons. J.T. Realmuto, PHI (C): Is this yet another Phillie? Yeah, it is, because the Phillies went crazy in the offseason. This may have been their most underrated move though. Realmuto actually ranked as the top catcher in fantasy last season and he did that in one of the toughest ballparks in the majors. Not only did Marlins Park surrender the second-fewest runs last season, it allowed the fewest homers in the league too. It really shows in Realmuto’s splits, as he posted a .249 average and .682 OPS at home the last three years. On the road, Realmuto generated a .318 average and .887 OPS in the same span. Needless to say, Realmuto is ecstatic to be leaving that terrible ballpark and even worse lineup. Getting such a boost in ballpark and lineup makes Realmuto one of the players to watch this season and he could truly become a superstar if he continues those road numbers for a full season in one of the best lineups in baseball. Nelson Cruz, MIN (DH): Cruz is simply one of the most underrated players in baseball. Where that’s truly evident is in his power numbers, as he ranks top-five in both home runs and RBI over the last decade. In fact, Cruz is averaging 33.8 home runs in that 10-year span while hitting at least 37 dingers in five-straight seasons. He actually did that damage in Seattle, which is a ballpark that ranked 27th in total runs last season. He now gets to hit in Target Field, which ranked 16th in total runs last year. They’re pretty much on par in terms of home runs but Cruz could be in for another 35-homer season as long as he stays healthy.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Early Pricing Values

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

With Opening Day about a week away, let’s take a look at some early values on DraftKings and FanDuel. While this does put us in a bit on an awkward spot in terms of guessing who’s starting, we have a good idea of what hitters we want to use. Our goal here is to spot value and exploit it. Releasing players’ salaries this early should allow us to take advantage of some sloppy pricing and create a dominant lineup. Let’s start by eliminating some bats that we want to fade and the pitchers they’ll be facing. This list includes The Tampa Bay Rays (J. Verlander), Miami Marlins (Gray, Freeland or Marquez), New York Mets (Scherzer), Washington Nationals (deGrom), Minnesota Twins (Kluber) and Arizona Diamondbacks (Buehler or Hill). Not only do all of these offenses have some major weaknesses, but they’re also likely to struggle against these elite arms. What adds to the fade is the fact that all of these games are being played in pitcher-friendly parks. That knocks out about a quarter of the field, so let’s get started with some bats in Texas. Kris Bryant, CHC at TEX FanDuel ($3,800) DraftKings ($5,400) This FanDuel price made my mouth water a little bit, as Bryant is in a perfect situation to succeed. The first big positive is this ballpark, as Globe Life Field ranked as the top-hitting park in the majors last season, Yes, there were more runs scored in Texas than in Coors Field. That makes this one of the most stackable games on the slate, with Bryant being the centerpiece to our stack. Facing Mike Minor is probably the biggest reason we want to use Bryant. While the slugging third basemen had a down season by his standards last year, he absolutely abused left-handed pitching. In fact, Bryant posted an absurd 1.138 OPS against southpaws last season. That’s all you can ask for in this ballpark, as we expect Bryant’s FanDuel price to get closer to his DraftKings price after a big opening weekend. Elvis Andrus, TEX vs. CHC FanDuel ($2,800) DraftKings ($3,300) My first inclination when looking at this slate was to target Jon Lester in Globe Life Park. That simply has disaster written all over it, as Lester is not the same pitcher he once was. The thing that threw me off was the fact that the Rangers lineup is full of lefties. While I expect some of the lefties to still get the job done, Andrus appears to be in the best spot to succeed. One major reason why is Lester’s inability to keep players off the base paths, as he allows the most stolen bases in the majors over the past decade. That’s especially beneficial for a player like Andrus, who averages about 27 steals per season hitting at the top of the Rangers batting order. Facing a lefty at home is a huge bonus too, as Andrus posted an .816 OPS at Globe Life and a .726 OPS against lefties last year. Those OPS numbers are well above his season average and he should have no problem getting on base against a pitcher who posted a 4.43 xFIP and 1.31 WHIP last season. All this is good news for Andrus but his price is simply too cheap. Players like Freddy Galvis and Nick Ahmed are in the same range as Andrus and it seems like a strong possibility that we’ll see his price rise over time. Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales, TOR vs. DET Smoak ($3,200) Morales: ($2,800) While there are no DraftKings prices released on these guys yet, they could make for a sneaky two-man stack. The main thing we want to do here is stack against Jordan Zimmerman. This is a guy who has posted a 5.24 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last three seasons. Those are nightmarish numbers from an Opening Day starter and he could struggle against the middle of this order in a tough ballpark. Rogers Centre actually surrendered the eighth-most home runs in the majors last season and that’s something Zimmerman has been struggling with mightily. In fact, Zimmerman posted an ugly 1.63 HR/9 rate two seasons ago and followed that up with a ghastly 1.92 HR/9 rate last year. That should benefit an undervalued bat like Smoak, who hit 20 home runs against righties last season while posting an .867 OPS. Morales was also much better against right-handers, as he hit 18 of his 21 homers against righties while establishing an .861 OPS. Many people may look at these guys and look right past them but you should never overlook any middle-of-the-order bats against a gas can like Zimmerman. It’s strange to see Smoak this cheap in such a great matchup, as he’s priced around guys like C.J. Cron, Brandon Belt and Ryan Zimmerman. Those players have to face Kluber, Scherzer and deGrom, so Smoak is obviously due for a price increase whenever he faces weak right-handers. Byron Buxton, MIN vs. CLE FanDuel ($2,300) DraftKings ($3,400) Ok, this is one guy that we’re not necessarily going to use for this series against the Indians but is way underpriced. Buxton is being priced like the guy who couldn’t crack a .200 average last season but he’s showing in spring training that he’s worked on some things. In fact, Buxton is 13-of-29 so far in spring training while collecting four home runs, three doubles, 13 RBI and three steals. That makes him arguably the best player at spring training, as he was once the top prospect in baseball. He’s shown glimpses in the majors too, as he accumulated 26 homers and 39 steals in 760 at-bats between 2016-17. If the Twins truly trust Buxton and put him at the top of their batting order like some expect, he could be the best value in DFS until his price gets closer to $4,000. Using him against strikeout machines like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Carols Carrasco is a tough sell but this is a guy who could become a huge value when he gets out of these nightmarish matchups.

5 years ago 0 comment

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DFS Hitting Stacks for 5/22 – Ride with Rangers

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New Faces in New Places

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