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Milwaukee Brewers

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 28)

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and we have ourselves a nice sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS. We have ourselves a Jacob Degrom night. Our dilemma will be do we use him against a good Yankees lineup? We also have ourselves a Coors slate and that always brings into question whether or not to fade that game. One thing we’ll need to keep an eye on is the weather tonight. Things look pretty dicey in the northeast. The Mets/Braves should play, but anything can happen when it rains. The Pirates/Nationals game doesn’t have a remote chance of playing as it’s supposed to rain all day in DC.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. New York Yankees

I miss him in the blue and orange. I talked myself into, “it’s ok, he’s always hurt.”. But man, when he’s on he’s the best pitcher of our generation and I don’t think it’s even close. deGrom proved in his last outing that getting pulled for the wrist issue was truly precautionary. In that outing, he went on to strikeout 11 A’s hitters in just 6 innings of work.

Over his last 26 innings, deGrom has an insane 42% k rate. He’ll face a Yankees team that is striking out 25% of the time against normal righties. That number will just go up against someone like deGrom. The Yankees will also be without Aaron Judge tonight, making this Yankees lineup that much weaker. deGrom for all the monies tonight.

Max Fried vs. New York Mets

As a Mets fan, it pains me to recommend a pitcher vs. them. That said, the offense just hasn’t been good of late. Although they scored 9 last night, they were coming off a 4-game stretch where the offense was laughable. They also haven’t been that good vs. lefties this season or really in the recent past. Fried has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate tonight.

While he hasn’t been striking a ton of batters out, he’s been really good. His ERA on the year is a measly .6. He’s been doing this by limiting hard contact and flyballs. His hard-hit rate is just 12% and his flyball rate is less than 28%. If he can continue to limit the hard contact and fly balls, he’ll be able to have his way tonight vs. the Mets.

Other pitchers that I like tonight are Luis Castillo vs. and inconsistent Blue Jays lineup and Framber Valdez vs. Philly.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson

The season started out great for Tyler Anderson as he shut out the Oakland Athletics. Since then he’s gone on to give up 16 ER in his last 13 innings of work. Anderson’s numbers this season look a little wonky. He’s given up just a 25% hard-hit rate, but he’s also given up 7 barrels in the 20 innings of work. This means he’s making mistakes and the opponents are taking full advantage of it when he does. We’ll mostly want the righties here. They have a .442 wOBA vs. Anderson and a .294 ISO.

I’ll start my Brewers stack off with William Contreras and Brian Anderson. These 2 have been the Brewers’ most consistent hitters vs. lefties this year. Contreras has been by far the best too. On the year he has a .250 ISO and a .458 wOBA. Over the last week, he’s also done well with 5 hits in 15 AB and an OPS over 1.000.

While Willy Adames hasn’t don’t well vs. lefties this year, he lines up well against Anderson. Other than his fastball, Anderson’s main pitch vs. righties is his changeup. Adames has a wOBA over .400 vs. this pitch over the last few years. This is a great get-right spot for him. Other bats to look at here will be Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, and Joey Wiemer.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lucas Giolito

There was a time when you just wouldn’t want to stack against Lucas Giolito. Those days are long done. Gio is going to have his hands full tonight with arguably the best team in all of baseball. I like picking on Gio because he makes a ton of mental mistakes.

He’s already given up 10 barrels and 4 homers on the year. His 50% flyball rate is something that we want to attack. I’m going to give a slight lean to the lefties in this lineup tonight for the Rays.

The important bats I want here are going to be Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe. Wander Franco is one of the most talented bats in all of baseball. This is a matchup that he should be able to take full advantage of tonight. He hasn’t homered in over a week, but he’s 9 for his last 29 and almost always puts the ball in play. Look for him to continue his strong play.

He’s not a lefty, but Yandy Diaz has been one of the best bats on this team of late. He’s 12 for his last 30 and has a team-leading 7 wRC over the last week. And last but not least, Randy Arozarena is always in play. The Rays have one of the highest implied run totals for anyone not in Coors tonight. They should smash like usual.

Oakland Athletics vs. Luis Cessa

The A’s pitching this season has been atrocious. Their bats however have not. They’ve surprisingly hung around in many games this season that they had no business hanging around in. Tonight they’ll get a tasty matchup vs. Luis Cessa. Cessa is coming off a good start vs. the Pirates, but in the 2 starts prior to that, he gave up a combined 16 ER.

He’s someone that has struggled with putting runners on. His WHIP on the year is a massive 2.34. That means he’s putting more than 2 runners in an inning. That’s something I want to attack. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .400 vs. him this season so I won’t be overly concerned with splits. That said, lefties have been getting more power so we don’t want to miss them.

The 2 main bats I’m looking at here are Brent Rooker and Jesus Aguilar. Rooker has been by far their best bat this season. Over the last week, he’s 6 for 22 with 3 bombs. He’s crushed righties this season with a .400 ISO and a .491 wOBA. His price is still just $3.4k and is a great value. Aguilar also had a solid week. Over his last 20 AB, he has 3 homers and 4 barrels. He’s seeing the ball well right now and should be able to do well vs. Cessa tonight.

Other bats to look at here are Jace Peterson and Conner Capel. Also, a complete game stack is very much in play here. Both sides should get in some offense tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to monitor the weather carefully tonight as there are a handful of games that could be delayed or PPD.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 21)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS! On the hill tonight is Shohei Ohtani against a weak Royals team. Anytime that he’s on the hill makes for a fun night of baseball. With pitching tonight after Ohtani, we have a bunch of mid-level arms. We also have some bats in solid spots.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shohei Ohtani vs. Kansas City Royals

Shohei Ohtani will be the chalk pitcher of the night. He gets a glorious matchup vs. an awful lineup in the Kansas City Royals. The Royals so far in 2023 have been downright bad vs. righties. They have a 25% k rate vs. them and an OPS under .600. That OPS is just brutal!

Ohtani has been pitching lights out, as usual. Over the first month of the season, he’s thrown to a .86 ERA and has a K rate approaching 33%. This is a matchup that he should be able to breeze through tonight.

Jon Gray vs. Oakland Athletics

I’ve been a huge supporter of Jon Gray since he came up with the Rockies. He’s shown flashes of brilliance at times and flashes of being a gas can at times. Tonight he should be more of the brilliance than the gas can as he gets a fabulous matchup vs. the lowly Oakland Athletics.

]Gray should be coming into this one fresh as he left his last start early thanks to a comebacker. He’s pitched decently so far this season with an ERA in the low 3’s. His k rate is nothing special, but he should have some upside tonight vs. an A’s lineup that does strike out a decent amount vs. righties.

Zac Gallen vs. San Diego Padres

This pick comes with a certain level of risk. The Padres are a tough lineup. Now that they have Tatis back, they’re even tougher. That said, they’ve looked beatable and inconsistent on many occasions so far this season. We also have a pitcher in Zac Gallen who has looked dominant in his last couple of outings.

He’s had 18 K’s over his last 2 outings and hasn’t allowed an ER. The Padres have a 26% K rate vs. righties this season, meaning Gallen has some strikeout upside tonight. He comes with risk, but I really like this spot for Gallen tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. JP Sears

The Rangers have one of the better matchups of all the teams tonight. JP Sears is coming off a quality start vs. the Mets, but in that start, he surrendered 2 homers in 6 innings of work. That makes it 5 on the season in just 15 innings of work. Sears’ flyball rate so far this season is pushing 61%. When you put that many balls in the air, you are asking for trouble. Righties have been doing the bulk of the damage vs. Sears so far. They have a massive .409 ISO vs. him.

Knowing that I’m starting off my stack with Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung. Semien is playing great right now with a 10 wRC over the last week. He’s had 11 hits in his last 23 AB and has combined to either drive in or score 21 runs. He’s been the heart and soul of their offense while Seager has been out.

Jung is sporting an 8 game hitting streak right now and there’s no reason to think that Sears will slow him down. At $3.9k he’s no longer the value play he was, but he’s still someone that should make an impact in this game. He won’t have the platoon advantage but don’t sleep on Nate Lowe. He was dominant vs. lefties this year and will be under-owned due to the L/L matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick PIvetta

Nick Pivetta is coming off an awful start vs. the Angels. In that start, he gave up 6 ER in 4 innings of work. Overall, he hasn’t been awful, but he’s been giving up a ton of hard contact this season. Hitters have a nearly 37% hard-hit rate vs. him and he’s also given up 8 barrels in his 14 innings of work. That’s not a good ratio to have. Against a solid Brewers lineup tonight, he’s going to have his hands full. We want to load up on lefties here. Lefties have a .333 ISO vs. him this year. That said, righties have also been hitting him hard so we won’t want to shy away from them.

I’m loading up on the 2 guys in the middle of this lineup, Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames. Tellez has a .314 ISO vs. righties so far this year and a .388 wOBA. He also has a 50% flyball rate which really lines up well with Pivetta and his 53% flyball rate. Flyball hitter vs. flyball pitcher should be a fun thing to watch.

Adames also has great numbers vs. righties this season. His ISO is up to .263 and his wOBA at .379. With PIvetta mostly throwing fastballs, William Contreras also profiles well here. He has a nearly .400 wOBA vs. righty fastballs over the last few years. Other guys I like here are going to be Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, and Brian Anderson.

New York Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a dominant start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. I just don’t trust him enough to think he can do it 2 times in a row. The start before that was brutal for him as he allowed 6 ER against the Angels. I think we get more along the lines of the 6 than we do the start he had vs. the Rays. He’s someone that gives up a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit so far this year is nearly 42%. Against a really good Yankees that, they should be able to fully take advantage of that.

The main bats I’m looking at here are going to be Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, and Anthony Rizzo. Judge, while he hasn’t done anything vs. lefties this season, has a long history of smashing them. Last season he had a wOBA over .400 vs. them. Against righties, Kikuchi mostly throws his fastball and a slider. Judge has historically hit lefty sliders hard when he makes contact. Over the last several seasons, he has .462 ISO vs. them. He’s my home run call of the night on a warm night on the east coast.

With Rizzo, I never shy away from L/L matchups with him. He’s historically done well against southpaws. Other bats I like are Gleyber Torres, DJ. LeMahieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera.

MLB DFS Summary

I know I omitted Aaron Nola from my aces and it’s for good reason. He just hasn’t looked sharp yet this season. The Phillies have been a mess and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Rockies put up a big number vs. him tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 17)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Happy Monday Funday! Tonight have a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS. We have a couple of studs on the mounds that we’ll need to decide on. We also have some arms in the mid-salary range that look extremely appealing. This is shaping up to be an extremely fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. Kansas City Royals

This is essentially a rematch of deGrom’s last outing. A week ago, deGrom faced this same Royals team. He had a really good outing, but it was nothing special. He finished that game with 9 strikeouts over 7 innings of work and allowed 2 ER. I’d expect more of the same tonight against the Royals.

Normally we shy away from taking a pitcher throwing against the same team in back-to-back starts. But not with deGrom. He’s a different breed. He can face the same lineup 5 straight days and still strike out 9-10 batters. I’m locking him in tonight as my SP1.

Kevin Gausman vs. Houston Astros

The Houston offense this season has so far looked very average and inconsistent. After scoring 8 runs on Saturday, they were shut down yesterday by a combination of Andrew Heaney and the Rangers bullpen. This is a lineup that can be taken advantage of in the right situations and tonight’s one of them. They’ve struggled vs. righties, as they have a 24% k rate and just a .105 ISO.

Gausman himself has been exceptional to start the season. He’s sporting a 32% k rate and a 2.62 xFIP. He’s been doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground too as hitters have a nearly 50% ground ball rate vs. him. It’s far from a safe pick, but I really like the chances of Gausman having a solid outing vs. the Astros tonight.

Corbin Burnes vs. Seattle Mariners

I’m considering taking a flyer on Burnes tonight. After opening the season with 2 duds, he returned to form in his last out, going 8 strong innings allowing 0 runs and striking out 8. The Diamondbacks’ lineup this season has been surprisingly good and dominating them may be what he needed to shake out of the funk that he started the season in. This is far from a safe pick though as the Mariners have been strong.

If you’re feeling a little frisky tonight, give Kyle Freeland a try. He’s only $7.1k and has been pitching pretty well, especially at home. He’s coming off back-to-back starts allowing a combined 2 ER against the Nats and the Cards. We also have the case where the first games in Colorado are typically low scoring. Add in the fact that it’s the Pirates, things really set up well for him tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chris Flexen

For the first time this season, I’m going back to a team that has won me a considerable amount of money over the last few seasons. The Milwaukee Brewers get the gift of facing off against Chris Flexen tonight. After starting out the year with a solid performance vs. the Guardians, things have gone south fast for Flexen.

In his last outing vs. the Cubs, Flexen gave up 8 ER in 2 innings of work. Now some of that was inflated because the wind was blowing out heavily in Chicago in that one, but Flexen is not a good pitcher and one I often attack. With Flexen, we want to get some of the righty bats in. He’s historically been a reverse splits pitcher and this season has been no different. Righties have a .321 ISO vs. him compared to just .050 for the lefties.

With that said, I’m starting off my Brewers stack with Willy Adames and William Contrares. Adames is my favorite of the 2 as he’s crushed righties so far in this young season. Through his first 50+ plate appearances vs. righties. Adames has a .250 ISO and a .391 wOBA. He’s not a righty, but I absolutely love Rowdy Tellez here. He’s been smashing the ball all year and should tonight as well. He’s up to 5 dongs and 12 RBI. Other bats I like here will be Mike Brosseau, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich.

Colorado Rockies vs. Dick Mountain

Rich Hill has had a storied career that feels like it has spanned decades. Well, he is in his third different decade pitching so it has been decades. Father time appears to be catching up to him though as his 2023 season has not been good. My biggest reason for chasing against Hill tonight is that flyball rate of his. So far this season, Hill has a 51% flyball rate.

In an environment such as Coors, giving up flyballs half the time means there is a significantly higher likelihood of homers. The ball just travels farther at a higher altitude. He’s been getting crushed, and I mean crushed by righties this season. They have a .412 wOBA and a .426 ISO.

My Rockies stack will be tailored around Kris Bryant, CJ Cron, and Elias Diaz. Bryant is my favorite as he’s been solid vs. lefties to start the year. In a small sample size, he has a .286 ISO vs. them. If we go back to the start of last season, even though he missed a good chunk of it, he had similar numbers so we know we aren’t chasing with him. Cron is another bat that profiles really well here. He’s historically done well against lefties and has extremely strong numbers vs. lefty curveballs. In theory, he should do well here. Other bats I’ll look to get in here will be Yonathan Daza, Ezequial Tovar, and Elehuris Montero.

Texas Rangers vs. Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles is a lister. He’s on a list of pitchers that we keep for pitchers that should be stacked against. I preach this all the time. We attack pitchers that give up a high amount of contact and a high amount of fly balls. So far this season, Lyles has an 86% contact rate and a 46% flyball rate. These are extremely attackable numbers. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against Lyles. He’s been historically bad against both sides of the plate.

With the Rangers tonight, I’m going to build around Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Jonah Heim, and Josh Jung. Over the last week, Heim leads the team with 6 wRC. His 1.219 OPS also leads the time by quite a margin. At $3.2k on DK, he’s a steal tonight. Lowe has also been really good and I would not be surprised to see him take Lyles deep tonight. His 52% flyball rate + Lyles exaggerated flyball mean there will be lots of balls in the air tonight.

Other bats I’ll look to here will be Adolis Garcia, Robbie Grossman, and Leody Tavares. Tavares is someone that although can be cold at times, showed last season he could be a game-changer.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate tonight. There are some pitchers in good spots and some bats in really good spots. Milwaukee is my team I’ll be building my bats around.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the premier edition of Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After an extra-long break due to the lockout, we’re finally back. Both sites have different-sized slates that we’ll have to deal with today. Today’s Main Slates kicks off at 2:20 on FanDuel for a 7 game slate and at 4:10 on DraftKings for a 6 game slate. DFS wise, opening day is one of the tougher days to navigate through. We normally have a slew of Aces on the mound, making stacking that much more complicated and condensed.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner

I’ll start by saying this is the chalk stack of the day. Everyone and their mother will be on them, and rightfully so. MadBum is a shell of his former self. Age and bike accidents have caught up to him. While 2021 wasn’t nearly as bad as 2020, he still had one of the lowest K/9s of his career with a 7.63.

One of the most glaring things about MadBum last season was his career-high flyball rate of 45%. He had never been over 42% before last season. Hitters are starting to put the ball in the air more against him and that’s a recipe for disaster when you can no longer blow away hitters.

With the Padres I want to focus on the hitters from the right side of the plate. Thankfully for us, this lineup is littered with righties. One of my favorite targets in this stack is going to be newcomer Luke Voit ($3,500 FD/$3,500 DK). Last season he had a 45.5% hard-hit rate vs. lefties with a 36% flyball rate. He rates well against cutters too, with a .153 ISO against them.

The other pieces I love here are Machado ($3,800 FD/$4,800 DK), Wil Myers ($2,600 FD/$3,400 DK), and Austin Nola ($2,200 FD/$3,100 DK). All three have a long history of success against cutters and that’s going to be one of the main pitches being thrown to them by MadBum. On FD, this stack is criminally underpriced.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Zack Greinke

This is my “be different” stack today. Like MadBum, Greinke is at or past his expiration date. Greinke has a ton of miles on his arm and his performance has really started regressing over the years. He returns to Kansas City after leaving them after the 2010 season. He is a much different pitcher than he was 12 years ago. Greinke had a career-low 17% K% last season. While he still doesn’t allow many fly balls, his line drive % has ticked up and his groundball rate has gone down. This is an all-or-nothing play. You either do a full stack here or move on.

My stack here starts with Jose Ramirez ($4,300 FD/$5,600 DK). He is the face of the Guardians franchise and just signed a very fat contract to remain in Cleveland for a long time to come. Greinke throws an upper 80’s fastball to lefties. Over the last few years, Ramirez has in insanely high .778 ISO against that pitch type with an average distance of over 346 feet. That’s high!

With this stack, we don’t need to shy away from right-handed bats. Last season, Greinke was significantly worse to righties than lefties. I love the idea of starting this stack with Myles Straw ($2,700 FD/$4,300 DK) and then Amed Rosario ($2,500 FD/$4,200 DK). Neither of those guys will hit for much power, but they’ll get on base and make things happen for Ramirez.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin

There’s a chance this game gets washed out, but they did proactively move the game back to 7pm tonight with the hope of avoiding the weather. From a DFS and fan perspective, I really hope this game gets in. Patrick Corbin was a bit Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde last year. He had some absolutely brutal games and some gems. When all was said and done though, he still had a pretty bad year. His HR/9 crept up to almost 2 which was a career-high.

Some of the advanced metrics say he shouldn’t have been as bad as he was, but he was still bad with a career-high 4.29 xFIP and 5.82 ERA. It’s now 2 straight years with an xFIP over 4. Tonight he gets a tough matchup against a newly made Mets lineup. Righties had an ISO of .267 and a wOBA of .391 against him last year. The Mets will have 7 righties in their lineup tonight. You do the match on how bad this could potentially be for Corbin

When you stack the Mets, you start with the polar bear, Pete Alonso ($3,600 FD/$4,800 DK). Last year he had a .342 ISO against lefties. He has a ton of power and is always a home run threat. I love newly acquired Marte ($3,600 FD, $5,100 DK) but I plan on stacking the Mets 4-7 tonight. Last season was a struggle for JD David ($2,100 FD/$2,600 DK) thanks to a nagging hand injury. If he’s healthy this year, he should have a huge bounce back. Corbin throws his slider more than 36% of the time to righties. Davis over the last few years has absolutely crushed this pitch, to the tune of a .450 ISO. If he’s in the lineup today, he’s a core for this stack.

My other piece here would be Eduardo Escobar ($2,900 FD/$4,100 DK). Escobar is a lefty crusher as he had a .243 ISO against them last year. He too fairs well against sliders from lefties. This has the makings of a short day for Corbin.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks

If you’re playing on FanDuel today, the Brewers should be in your consideration for stacks. Hendricks really struggled last year, posting career highs in ERA, xFIP, xERA, and Homers allowed. It was a struggle all year for him. With the Brewers, we’d want to focus on guys from the left side of the plate. Lefties had a .364 wOBA against Hendricks last season. He also gave up a tad bit more hard contact vs. them as well as fly balls. Hard contact and fly balls are what we’re looking for. My stack here would start with guys like Rowdy Tellez ($2,200 FD), Omar Narvaez ($2,500 FD), and Jace Peterson ($2,000). All three are close to min priced on FD and fared well against righties last season.

Other stacks I like today are the Cardinals and Atlanta. Both are high priced, especially on DraftKings. If I had to prioritize one of the 2, I’d side with St. Louis as they have the better matchup on paper.

MLB DFS Summary

Well, opening day is finally here my friends and MLB DFS is back! I’m like a kid in a candy store right now and can’t wait for the games to start. Fading the Padres is certainly in play today, but they are in a great spot. Could we get vintage MadBum? Sure. Are the chances high of that? Nope. It may be the homer in me as I’m a die-hard Mets fan, but I really love the spot for them. This is arguable the best lineup they’ve had in years up and down the lineup. They should smash Corbin and then get a below-average bullpen.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/18 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,200)

Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.

Best GPP Value: Lance McCullers ($9,900)

I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,300)

Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.

GPP Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.

GPP Stack #2: Oakland Athletics

If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 08/19

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a small 4 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With a small slate comes a limited pool of options.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: Early Slate Thoughts

Pithing isn’t great on the early slate. Thankfully we only have to pick 1. My lean right now is to stick with either Chris Flexen or Dylan Cease. Flexen will probably be my main target as he gets the best match up vs. the lowly Rangers.

With bats we go right back to the well against the Orioles. Lopez has really struggled the last 30 days and his biggest weakness has been the lefties. They have a .451 wOBA against him over that period. Lowe ($3.7k), Choi ($2.5k), and Meadows ($3.2k) are the targets there. If Phillips ($2.6k) plays he’ll also crack my lineup.

White Sox vs. Irvin will also be a place to look at for offense. Irvin is giving up a 43% fly ball rate to righties over the past month and I’ll want to use the likes of Abreu ($4k), Vaughn ($2.5k), and Hernandez ($3k) as they’ve been crushing lefties of late.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.7k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – I’ll start by saying that the Cardinals are not an easy task. They are a low strike out team. That said, Woodruff is one of the top strike out pitchers on the slate and that’s what we chase in DFS.

Over the past month he has a near 29% K rate. He’s also been doing his usual thing in limiting hard contact. It’s sitting at just 24.6%, which is the lowest on the slate. Woodruff faced the Cardinals once earlier this year and was able to strike out 10. While I don’t know if he’ll get there today, I do think he has a solid day.

Luis Castillo ($9.7k) vs. Miami Marlins – Outside of his start to Cleveland, Castillo has been in top form of late. Five of his last six outings have gone for over 39 FD points. Today he gets a great matchup against a poor Marlins lineup.

The projected Marlins lineup tonight has a 27% K rate vs. righties. Castillo should face a lineup that will have 6 righties in it. This is in wheelhouse as he has a 27% K rate vs. righties over the last month. With Castillo in top form, he will be my favorite pitcher of the bunch tonight.

Walker Buehler ($11.6k) vs. New York Mets – The Dodgers haven’t named Buehler the starter yet as of writing this, but if he starts he gets a great matchup against a struggling Mets lineup. Buehler faced the Mets on Saturday night and was dominant. He struck out 10 in 7 innings.

With the Mets potentially losing their top hitter in Alonso yesterday, there’s no reason to think that he can’t replicate his last outing. I’m going to side with Castillo tonight due to the $2k savings over Buehler, but Buehler very well could be the highest scoring pitcher of the slate if he pitches.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Taijuan Walker – Yes, Walker threw 6 no hit innings vs. the Dodgers last week. Prior to that outing Walker had been absolutely awful.

Over the past month Walker has been giving up a ton of hard contact and way too many fly balls. He’s given up 11 homers in his last 27 innings. During that stretch both sides of the plate have been getting to him, especially righties with a .382 ISO against him.

The 4 guys I want to target here are the Dodgers hottest hitters since worrying about platoon splits against Walker won’t get us that much of an advantage.

Muncy ($4k), Justin Turner ($3.8k), Will Smith ($3.5k), and Seager ($3.2k) all have OPS’s greater than 1.000 over the past week. There’s no reason to think they will cool off against Walker tonight. Prices aside, the Dodgers are my top stack tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Zach Thompson – After the usual getaway rut that the Reds faced yesterday, they’re back in action at night and get a great match up. Thompson is a very attackable pitcher as he is a very low swing and miss pitcher.

Over the past month his swinging strike rate is just 9%. For comparison purposes, Woodruff is over 16%. That’s a significant difference. With Thompson we have very clear splits. Over the past 30 days his ISO is .233 against lefties while just .085 to righties. His wOBA is .392 to lefties while just .197 against righties.

My main building blocks here will be Votto ($4k), Naquin ($2.8k), and Moustakas ($2.5k). All 3 guys have long track records against righties, with Votto and Moose having ISO’s greater than .250 against them over the last few years. Other guys I’ll want to target here are India ($3.9k) and Stephenson ($2.7k).

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jon Lester – As I’m sure Brian will be going in depth with this one I don’t think I’ll need to give you all the reasons to play the Brewers against Lester. My main reasons though are that he misses few bats and gives up hard contact.

His swinging strike rate over the past month is just 6.5% and his hard hit rate is approaching 45%. Those 2 reasons are enough to prioritize the Brewers tonight. I’m going to look at prioritizing the righties here as Lester is giving up a 50% hard hit rate to righties over the past month. That’s pretty high!

Adames ($3.3k), Escobar ($3.6k), and Garcia ($3k) all have ISO’s over .200 and wOBA’s over .330 against lefties this season. Garcia is my favorite of the 3. If Pina ($2.2k) is in the lineup tonight he should also be in your lineup. He’s cheap and also has great numbers vs. lefties this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

With pitching tonight I’ll look to stay with the top 3 salaried guys as the low range are all high risk. We have 3 great stacks to target as we really have some major gas cans going.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, August 13

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a 14 game day slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian while he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

It’s Friday and that means we’re back to having a loaded slate. With tonight’s slate we have a handful of pitchers that I’m looking to work in. It all starts with Robbie Ray ($9.2k). We’re getting Ray at the cheapest he’s been in a couple of months.

He’s seen a little bit of a downward trend of late as he has just a 24% K rate over the past month. That’s down significantly from his 30% yearly rate. If we look into what happened it’s mostly due to match ups. Three of his last 3 outings have been against the Red Sox and they are a top team against lefties. Tonight Ray gets a much softer match up in the Mariners and he should get back on track. Ray will more than likely be my SP1 tonight.

The next two pitchers I’m considering are Shane McClanahan ($7.8k) vs. Minnesota and Anthony DeSclafani ($9k) vs. Colorado. Both guys get soft match ups tonight. DeSclafani gets the softer match up as he gets the Rockies outside of Coors.

The Rockies are a very different team away from Coors and were man handled by Logan Webb last night. DeSclafani’s top pitch is his slider and it’s not a pitch that the Rockies handle. Only Blackmon has a whiff rate less than 30% to the pitch. This is the type of match up that gives DeSclafani a ton of upside.

If we switch gears to McClanahan he’s someone that gives us two things over Disco. A $1.2k savings (we can really use that tonight with some of the bats) and he has a higher strike out ability. Over the past month McClanahan has a 28% K rate and gets to take on a team that has been striking out quite a bit recently.

The Twins have struck out more than 28% of the time over the past week and this match up isn’t great for them.. Similar to DeSclafani, McClanahan will use his slider a ton. Twins as a team do not handle sliders well and it should give McClanahan some upside.

The first place I’m going to look to for offense tonight will be the Cleveland Indians. They get to take on the worst pitcher on the slate, Mr. Tyler Alexander. Over the last month Alexander has been getting shelled. Batters have a 45% hard hit rate and almost 57% fly ball rate. Add in the fact that he also has just a 5.5% swinging strike rate, he’s someone we need to attack.

The box score looked pretty good for Alexander last time out against the Indians. Looks can be deceiving though. He still gave up a couple of barrels, had a 40% hard hit rate against him, and had a 100% LOB. Lightning won’t strike twice tonight.

Alexander’s biggest struggles come against righties as he’s given up a .354 wOBA against them this season and both his fly ball rate and hard hit rate balloon to the upper 40%’s. I’m not going all in on the Indians but I want to pluck a few of the really cheap right handed bats here as they’ll help to set up my primary stack. Myles Straw ($2.6k), Oscar Mercado ($2.3k), and Owen Miller ($2.5k) are all incredibly cheap and will have the platoon advantage tonight.

My priority stack tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Mitch Keller. Brewers will be popular tonight as they are red hot. That said, it’s a large slate and we normally see ownership a little more spread out. Keller has been getting shelled this year by both sides of the plate so I’m not overly concerned with platoon splits here.

Digging in to pitch data, Keller is going to throw his fastball almost 60% of the time tonight. It’s been getting drilled this season. Hitters have a 48% hard hit rate and near .500 slugging % against it. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Brewers lineup tonight as some of the guys are pretty beat up.

If they are all healthy, I’m going to prioritize Garcia ($4.5k), Adames ($5.5k), Escobar ($5.9k), and Narvaez ($4.5k). All four of these guys have slugging %’s greater than .500 against fastballs this year and are set up for solid nights.

If for some reason weather impacts this game or we want to pivot away from a chalky Brewers lineup, I’ll more than likely to move to the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Michael Pineda. Pineda is someone that we’ll want to attack with lefties as his splits are pretty clear. He’s giving up a .243 ISO to lefties this year. If we go Rays, I’ll look to prioritize Lowe ($4.6k), Choi ($3.7k), and Win Daily’s favorite hitter Austin Meadows ($4.5k). All three have the platoon advantage and set up well from a pitch mix stand point.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight we have some solid pitchers on the mound and we finally have a pool of more than 1 to select from. Depending on how ownership shakes out through the day, I’ll be selecting from a pool of Ray, McClanahan, and DeSclafani. My core batters will come from the Brew Crew, Rays, and Indians.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, August 11

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a nice sized 11 game slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

As I started to research tonight’s slate one thing became clear. We have a very possible path to having double aces, well one true ace and a pair of wannabe aces. We have a lineup that is woefully under priced that makes paying up for both pitchers very attainable.

Let’s start with pitching. The top pitcher for me tonight will be Corbin Burnes ($10.3k). He gets an extremely soft match up against a team that just isn’t hitting. Over the past week the Cubs have an insanely high strike out rate of nearly 37% with very limited power numbers.

Burnes has seem some regression in his strike outs over the past 30 days as his K rate is at 28% vs. nearly 36% on the year. This is the type of match up though where he gets closer to that 36%. Outside of Wilson Contreras, the project lineup that he’s facing tonight has really struggled against cutters.

Then next spot is where I need to choose. My choices right now are Kevin Gausman ($9.9K) and Adam Wainwright ($9.4k). Both guys project very well tonight and are facing lineups that have been striking out quite a bit of late. My lean right now is Wainwright as he gives us a $500 savings and we can absolutely use it.

The Pirates are surprisingly striking out a lot of late. Over the past week they have a near 30% K rate. The projected lineup that Wainwright will face tonight has a 29% K rate vs. righties. Waino has 4 straight starts of at least 19 DK points. This is the type of the match up where the floor of 19 is the worst case scenario tonight.

My top stack tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jake Arietta. I’m not sure why the Cubs continue to trot out Arietta, but for us, this is a good thing. This season has been especially brutal for Jake. He owns a 5.37 xFIP and just an 18% K rate. His fly ball rate of 33% is one of the highest marks of his career and 39% hard hit rate is the highest. You have to wonder if this is it for him.

The reason he’s been so bad is that his famous sinker is getting hit, and hit very hard. Hitters have a .629 slugging % and .469 wOBA against it. The Brewers have a handful of guys that have been successful against sinkers this year. It starts with Eduardo Escobar ($5.9k). Escobar has a .611 slugging % and .424 wOBA against sinkers this year and he’ll be a focal point to my Brewers stack.

Other guys that hit the sinker well are Omar Narvaez ($4.6k), Willy Adames ($5.6k), and Avisail Garcia ($4.6k). All have wOBA’s greater than .400 against sinkers this year. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight and it sets up well for the Brewers to put up a large number.

I’m not as worried about the wind tonight with the Cubs in this match up because a.) they’re striking out 37% of the time and b.) Burnes keeps the ball on the ground when he’s not striking out hitters.

If I told you that the Baltimore Orioles had the fourth highest wRC+, the third highest OPS, and the second highest ISO against lefties would you believe me? The Orioles are two very different teams against righties and lefties. Against righties they are awful but against lefties they are one of the best.

Tonight they are simply underpriced against Skubal. Skubal’s K rate has come back down to earth after a very impressive mid season. Over the past 30 days it’s only 18.6% and he’s back to giving up the long ball with 6 in his last 21 innings of work. Skubal’s splits are very clear. He overpowers lefties, but gets overpowered by righties as they have a .258 ISO.

The Orioles should have 8 righties in the lineup and this sets up extremely well for them. Outside of Trey Mancini ($4.3k), the heart of this lineup is under $3k and will give us the flexibility to use the expensive Brewers bats. My focus on the Orioles outside of Mancini will be Austin Hays ($2.5k) who has a .255 ISO and .372 wOBA against lefties this year. He is essentially a “free square” tonight.

Anthony Santander ($2.3k) is also nearly min priced and is also someone I’ll want to help fit in bigger pieces. It’s supposed to be near 90 degrees at first pitch and the ball will have extra giddy up in Camden tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight is a night we can absolutely go down the path of double aces. All of Gausman, Wainwright, and Burnes are in play. I’ll be focusing my bats around the Brewers with a juicy match up vs. Arietta and the criminally underpriced Baltimore Orioles.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, August 02

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed vacation. Today’s slate will leave a lot to desired from a pitching standpoint. The most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate is Tylor Megill. Nothing against Megill as he’s been quite good since his call up, but he shouldn’t be the most expensive pitcher on a slate (at least yet).

There are really only 3 pitchers tonight that will have my interest. Tylor Megill ($9.6k), Michael Wacha ($8.4k), and Josiah Gray ($7.6k). As the day goes on I will let ownership dictate who I use. These 3 pitchers provide 2 things I’m looking for on a slate like this. Upside and safety.

First let’s look at Megill. He’s facing off against a very watered down lineup that won’t hit for much power. While the Marlins do get Chisholm back, he’s someone that’s striking out more than 29% of the time to righties this year. Megill’s price is a little more than I’d like to pay for him, but the match up today definitely gives him room for upside. The next two guys are the wild cards for me.

How do you get the Nationals to send you 2 of their best players? You send them one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Josiah Gray. Gray has looked pretty good so far in the Majors with 13 K’s through 8 IP. That’s nearly 15 K/9. He’s someone that’s going to give us the most K potential of any arm on the slate as long as he can limit the walks.

The last guy I’m interested in is Wacha. Over the last 30 days Wacha has a 27% K rate and gets a great match up against a Mariners team that couldn’t put up much of a fight against the worst pitcher in baseball, Folty. If Wacha comes in at chalk (and it’s certainly possible on a slate like this) I’ll side with Gray and Megill.

The main area of offense for me tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers. We get to attack newly acquired Bryce Wilson. While Wilson isn’t very good to either side of the plate, we really want to attack him with batters from the left side of the plate. His ISO jumps to .254 from just .130 and his K rate is just 11%.

Newly acquired Eduardo Escobar ($5.4K) is my favorite of the bunch as he has the most power with an ISO of .231 against righties this season. The other keys here will be Kolten Wong ($4.4k) at the top and Omar Narvaez ($4.5k).

The one guy in this lineup that will open us up for a ton of salary relief is Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2.4k). Look, this season has been brutal for Bradley as he’s batting just .175 with an OPS of .540. Some of it has been bad luck though as he an extremely low BABIP of .234. By far the lowest of his career.

The team that I’m looking at tonight to pair with the Brewers is a Brian special, the Tampa Bay Rays. They get to take on Chris Flexen. Flexen has flashed some upside this season, but the match up for him tonight is going to be tough and his performance recently has been trending down. His last outing was by far his worst of the year, giving up 7 ER vs. the Houston Astros.

The two building blocks I’ll use from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($4.5k) and Ji-Man Choi ($4.4k). Both guys have absolutely crushed right handed hitting this year with ISO’s of .339 and .284 respectively. The two of them are extremely underpriced considering the match up and their upside.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This is going to be a tricky, but fun slate. We’ve had some questionable pitching slates over the past month but this one may take the cake. We are now a few days separated from the trading deadline and lineups are getting close to set with the new guys. Tonight I’ll be mixing and matching the Brewers with Rays as both teams line up great with each other.

I don’t think I’ll stray too far from my core of Megill, Wacha, and Gray. Another area to look at tonight will be the Baltimore Orioles. Andrew Heaney is making his Yankees debut and if he becomes chalky, I’ll be sure to sprinkle in some O’s (Mancini being the main target). O’s have been very good vs. lefties this year and can certainly do some damage vs. Heaney.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. A 4 game noon slate and a 5 game main slate.

For the first time in a while Fanduel split the slates properly. I’ll be walking you through options I like for both slates. We have a couple of decent pitching options on both slates and some solid stacks.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Gerrit Cole ($10.8K) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – After a stretch in June where Cole was really struggling with getting batters out and striking them out, it appears he has regained his form. Over the past 30 days Cole has a near 38% K rate and he’s brought his hard hit rate back down to just 26.9%.

The Rays hit for a lot of power, but we also know that if they aren’t hitting for power, they’re also striking out. Against righties this year they have a 25.5% K rate. Pitching against the Rays is never easy, but I like Cole to continue his stretch of solid pitching.

Luis Castillo ($8.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – It’s only a matter of time before the tear down of the Cubs happens. We’re quickly approaching the deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see some of the guys sit or get traded before the game.

In Castillo we’re getting a pitcher that’s been in excellent form. His last 2 starts have been arguably his best. He has 17 K’s in his last 13 innings of work. Look for Castillo to continue his solid string of outings with another dominant performance today.

Alec Mills ($7.1k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I will be sticking with the top 2 pitchers on the day slate, but if you want to get a little crazy (and who doesn’t like getting a little crazy every now and then) you want to take a look at Mills. There’s been a noticeable trend with the Reds in getaway days.

The offense generally is quiet and with the weather today being pitcher friendly Mills may be a good option. Over the last 30 days he’s actually been pretty good with a 3.53 xFIP that matches his ERA. His K rate is hovering around the 25% mark as well. Not a ‘wow’ guy, but he’s serviceable and should perform well today.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez – White Sox largely disappointed last night. I’m going right back to the well today because they get a match-up with a pitcher that’s been giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Over the past 30 days Hernandez is giving up a 41% hard hit rate with a 48% fly ball rate.

Hernandez doesn’t go deep so it means the Royals rely heavily on the bullpen when he pitches. In his last 7 outings the opposing team has scored 5 runs or greater in every outing. Hernandez’s fly ball rate shoots up to 50% against lefties so I want to ensure that Moncada ($3k), Sheets ($2.3k), and Goodwin ($2.4k) are in any White Sox stack today.

New York Mets vs. Drew Smyly – Really like this spot for the Mets today. Smyly is a very attackable pitcher. He’s a low strike out guy who’s been putting a lot of batters ton. His WHIP over the past 30 days is 1.43. If the Mets can show some patience today they should be able to get some runners on base for guys like Alonso ($3.6k) and Davis ($2.9k). Both guys should see a heavy dose of fastballs as Smyly throws it around 50% of the time to righties.

New York Yankees vs. Luis Patino – I should start with saying that Patino is a top pitching prospect. He’ll be a solid pitcher at the Major League level at some point. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle so far and if we look at his performance during July we can see we have a pitcher that we can attack.

He’s had a 38% hard hit rate and a near 49% fly ball rate. Until he can show he can consistently get hitters out, he’s someone we should attack. He tends to do worse against righties so I’m going to load up on the likes of Stanton ($3.4k), Judge ($4k), and Torres ($3.6k). All 3 have solid power numbers against sliders and they should see a healthy dose of them.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Frankie Montas ($8.8k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – On FD tonight i really don’t think you’ll need to stray from Montas. He’s cheap, he’s in peak form, and he’s facing a beaten up lineup that’s even more beaten up with Walsh going on the IL yesterday.

Montas over the last 30 days has a 30% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and just a 25% hard hit rate. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but he really is in a smash spot tonight. Outside of Ohtani, this is not an intimidating lineup. Montas is my SP1 tonight.

Freddy Peralta ($9.7k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is a little bit more than I’d like to pay for Peralta being that he hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in more than a month and he’ll continue to not go deep. But we’re very limited with pitching tonight so he’s one of the pitchers I’ll consider.

On the year Peralta has a 35% K rate which is one of the best in the game. The biggest red flag tonight with Peralta is that he’s facing a lineup that just doesn’t K much as the projected lineup has just a 22% K rate vs. righties this year.

Alex Cobb ($8.6k) vs. Oakland Athletics – If Cobb does indeed start tonight he’ll be in my top 3 pitchers to use. He’s not a sexy pick as his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days and isn’t much higher if we look at the year as a whole.

He is someone though that gives us one of the higher ceilings on the slate as he’s reached 45 FD points on multiple occasions over the past month and a half. While i will probably stick with Montas in this range, Cobb shouldn’t be too far behind in terms of results.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. Alex Wells – Who would have thought at the start of the year that the Tigers would be such a popular team to use as a stack? Not me. But here we are approaching August and the Tigers continue to put up big numbers.

Tonight they get a solid match up against a pitcher giving up lots of contact. In just 9 innings of work this year he’s given up a 46% hard hit rate and near 40% fly ball rate. With not being a high swing and miss guy, those numbers aren’t going to cut.

He throws is fastball more than 50% of the time and the Tigers have a bunch of guys that crush fastballs. My main targets here are Haase ($3.2k), Cabrera ($2.5k), and Schoop ($3.5k). Schoop will need to be monitored as he was a late scratch yesterday.

Baddoo ($3.5k) is hot and should also be a focus even though it’s a L/L match-up. Can’t expect Wells to go that long and at some point he’ll face a righty out of the pen.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Casey Mize – This is more a testament to the Tigers bullpen than it is for Mize. Mize hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month and we can’t really expect anything different tonight. We saw yesterday that the Tigers pen is prone to blow ups.

This game has the makings of a nice game stack. If we focus on Mize he has very clear splits. He is far more dominant vs. righties so we’ll want to key in on the Orioles lefties.

Mullins ($3.1k) and Stewart ($2.1k) are my primary targets as both guys have upside and Stewart is near min priced. While the rest of the Orioles are secondary pieces based on Mize, they turn to primary pieces once we get into the bullpen.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl – Kuhl has been much better over the past 30 days. His strikeouts are up and his xFIP is down. That said, I still want to pick on him because the Brewers lineup is hot with 4 of their last 5 games being at 6 runs or better.

Kuhl tends to give up harder contact against lefties and the Brewers have a few that we can attack him with. Wong ($3k), Narvaez ($2.4k), and Tellez ($2.2k) are my prime targets. If Escobar plays tonight he’s also be someone I’ll want to focus on.

Bonus Stack – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – There’s some weather concern in this game so I have it down on my list a bit. Blue Jays though are in a great spot. While Rodriguez has pitched well in his last couple of outings he’s also had a handful of outings this year where he’s blown up, with one coming against the Blue Jays in May.

Blue Jays line up very well with Rodriguez and his pitch type. They are a right handed heavy team and Rodriguez will throw them plenty of fastballs and change ups. We know that the Blue Jays are elite against fastballs, but they’re also great against change ups.

Guerrero ($4.5k), Semien ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.5k) all have ISO’s great than .200 against change ups. This could be another rough outing for Hernandez.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Both slates today will have limited pitching options. I will be focusing my efforts on Castillo in the early slate and Montas in the main slate. With limited pitching options we typically see great stacking opportunities and today is no exception.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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